導語：如何才能(neng)寫好(hao)一篇(pian)行業(ye)風險分(fen)析報告，這就需(xu)要搜集整理更多(duo)的資(zi)料(liao)和(he)文獻，歡迎閱讀由公務員之家整理的十篇(pian)范文，供你(ni)借鑒。

篇1

 [關鍵詞]風(feng)電(dian)資源(yuan) 能源(yuan)結構調整 風(feng)電(dian)發展

一、中國(guo)的能源結構不合理需要調整

中國的發電結構非常依賴于煤,因此煤價的波動會造成整個電力行業的(de)波(bo)動(dong),從而造成(cheng)(cheng)整(zheng)個(ge)國(guo)家的(de)用電成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)也隨(sui)著(zhu)煤(mei)價(jia)的(de)波(bo)動(dong)而波(bo)動(dong),給經濟(ji)的(de)平(ping)穩運(yun)行造成(cheng)(cheng)影響。此(ci)外(wai)燃煤(mei)發電會產生大(da)(da)量的(de)二氧化碳,中國(guo)在2007年以(yi)成(cheng)(cheng)為事(shi)實上最大(da)(da)的(de)二氧化碳排放國(guo),隨(sui)著(zhu)全(quan)球對氣候問(wen)題的(de)關注(zhu)持續(xu)升溫,中國(guo)所承受的(de)國(guo)際壓(ya)(ya)力也越來(lai)越大(da)(da)。如果美國(guo)加入2009年的(de)哥本(ben)哈根(gen)協議(yi),中國(guo)將會面(mian)臨(lin)空前的(de)國(guo)際壓(ya)(ya)力。不管出于能源安全(quan)還是環境壓(ya)(ya)力,中國(guo)都(dou)需要對能源結構進行調整(zheng)。

二、風電行業在非水(shui)可再生能源中最(zui)具商業價值且(qie)儲量豐富

風力發電(dian)成本(ben)和(he)火電(dian)相當,目前更是降低(di)到0.4-0.45元/千瓦時。和(he)太陽能相比,風力大規模發電(dian)社會所承擔(dan)的負擔(dan)要低(di)很多。

對于(yu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)風(feng)(feng)力資源(yuan)非常豐(feng)富(fu),目(mu)前存在很多種說法,國(guo)家(jia)(jia)氣象(xiang)局1980,2004進行(xing)的第二,第三次全國(guo)風(feng)(feng)能(neng)(neng)普查(cha)的結果是,陸上(shang)10米(mi)高可(ke)(ke)開(kai)發利(li)(li)用的風(feng)(feng)電儲量約(yue)為(wei):25300萬千瓦和(he)29700萬千瓦,近海(hai)可(ke)(ke)可(ke)(ke)開(kai)發利(li)(li)用的風(feng)(feng)能(neng)(neng)約(yue)為(wei)75000萬千瓦。由于(yu)高度越高,風(feng)(feng)能(neng)(neng)越好(hao),美國(guo)環(huan)境計劃和(he)國(guo)家(jia)(jia)氣候中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)心,根據模(mo)型所(suo)得中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)50米(mi)高可(ke)(ke)開(kai)發利(li)(li)用風(feng)(feng)能(neng)(neng)儲量為(wei):140000萬千瓦和(he)254800萬千瓦。雖然(ran)不(bu)同(tong)(tong)機構的調查(cha)結果不(bu)同(tong)(tong),但基(ji)本(ben)上(shang)可(ke)(ke)以看出,我(wo)國(guo)風(feng)(feng)力資源(yuan)非常豐(feng)富(fu),能(neng)(neng)夠成為(wei)我(wo)國(guo)電力結構中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的重要組成部分。

由于我國(guo)(guo)風(feng)(feng)力資源沒有進行(xing)過(guo)詳(xiang)盡的(de)(de)評估,因此無法得出具體準確的(de)(de)數據,但從目前規劃的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)電基地來看,我國(guo)(guo)在(zai)未來的(de)(de)裝機(ji)量至少將達到(dao)10000萬(wan)千(qian)瓦,那(nei)么至少在(zai)未來5年內,風(feng)(feng)資源不會(hui)成為瓶頸。

三、中國目前(qian)風電行業(ye)正(zheng)經(jing)歷著(zhu)高速(su)增長

從2002-2003年開始(shi)風(feng)機裝機量步入穩定(ding)增長,到(dao)2006-2007更(geng)是(shi)呈現出爆(bao)發性增長的(de)趨勢。我(wo)們認為政策對行(xing)(xing)業的(de)啟動功不(bu)可沒(mei)。但隨著行(xing)(xing)業和政策的(de)不(bu)斷調整,目前運營風(feng)電場已經能夠獲不(bu)錯的(de)收(shou)益,我(wo)們認為在未來,政策對行(xing)(xing)業的(de)支持會一如既往(wang)但政策驅動的(de)作用在逐漸弱化,而市(shi)場在行(xing)(xing)業里(li)面(mian)會起到(dao)越(yue)來越(yue)重要的(de)作用。

1.在(zai)過去政策驅動著中(zhong)國(guo)風電行業的高速增長

從2002-2003年開始(shi)風(feng)機裝(zhuang)機量步入穩定增長,到2006-2007更是呈現出(chu)爆發性增長的趨勢,我們認為造成現狀的原因有如下四點。

(1)2003年(nian)特許權項目啟動。

(2)2005年可再(zai)生能源法的出臺。

(3)2005年(nian)《發改委關(guan)于(yu)風電建(jian)設管(guan)理(li)有關(guan)要求(qiu)的通知》中要求(qiu)風電設備國產(chan)化率達到70%。

(4)2007年《可(ke)再生(sheng)能源中(zhong)長期發展規劃》中(zhong)大型(xing)發電企業配額的確立。

2003年(nian)開始的(de)(de)(de)特(te)許(xu)權項目(mu)解決(jue)了(le)(le)2002年(nian)以前存在(zai)的(de)(de)(de)阻礙風(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)展的(de)(de)(de)一些主要(yao)(yao)問(wen)題,明確了(le)(le)風(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)不參與(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力市(shi)場競爭,政府承(cheng)諾固(gu)定(ding)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)小時(shi)(shi)內(nei)(30000小時(shi)(shi))內(nei)的(de)(de)(de)固(gu)定(ding)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價,風(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)與(yu)常(chang)規電(dian)(dian)(dian)源上網(wang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價的(de)(de)(de)差額在(zai)各省(sheng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)內(nei)分(fen)攤,風(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)場與(yu)附近電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)之間(jian)的(de)(de)(de)輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)線路及(ji)配套設施(shi)由(you)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)企業投資(zi)建設,進場道(dao)路及(ji)項目(mu)準備(bei)工(gong)作有(you)當地地方政府組織(zhi)協(xie)調等(deng)(deng)等(deng)(deng)。這些主要(yao)(yao)政策后(hou)來都被《可再生能源法》采(cai)(cai)納。此外2003年(nian),2004年(nian)的(de)(de)(de)特(te)許(xu)權項目(mu)都采(cai)(cai)用投標價最低者中(zhong)標,這也對風(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設備(bei)的(de)(de)(de)價格提出了(le)(le)要(yao)(yao)求,雖然從國(guo)家層面出發(fa)是(shi)為了(le)(le)控制(zhi)風(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)(de)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)成本,但在(zai)客觀(guan)上確實(shi)對提高內(nei)資(zi)廠商競爭力有(you)明顯幫助。

2005年(nian)(nian)出臺的(de)《可再生能源法》將上述政策以法律的(de)形式確定下來,使得市場對國家支(zhi)持可再生能源的(de)信心(xin)更加堅定2005年(nian)(nian)同時出臺的(de)《發改委關于風電建設(she)管理(li)有關要求的(de)通知》中要求風電設(she)備國產化率達到70%,這對培育(yu)本(ben)土的(de)風電產業鏈十(shi)分關鍵。

2007年(nian)《可(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)中長(chang)期發展規劃(hua)》中規定,凡權(quan)益裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)在500萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千瓦(wa)以上的(de)大型發電集團,非(fei)水可(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)占總裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)比例在2010年(nian)和2020年(nian)分(fen)別要(yao)達到(dao)3%和8%。我們認為這可(ke)能(neng)(neng)是導致06,07年(nian)行(xing)業爆發式(shi)增長(chang)的(de)導火索(suo)。由于太陽能(neng)(neng)電池過高的(de)成本以及生(sheng)物質能(neng)(neng)運輸(shu),來(lai)源(yuan)等缺(que)陷,真(zhen)正最有商(shang)業價值的(de)就是風(feng)電,因此(ci)到(dao)2010年(nian)占總裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)3%非(fei)水可(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)可(ke)能(neng)(neng)全(quan)是風(feng)能(neng)(neng)。按(an)2007年(nian)五(wu)大發電集團的(de)權(quan)益裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)算,到(dao)2010年(nian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)需要(yao)達到(dao)880萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千瓦(wa),2006年(nian)的(de)全(quan)行(xing)業累計裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)不過260萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千瓦(wa),考慮到(dao)風(feng)電的(de)開發從(cong)拿到(dao)項目到(dao)建成還需要(yao)2年(nian)左右的(de)時(shi)間(jian),因此(ci)時(shi)間(jian)仍然(ran)比較(jiao)緊(jin)迫,這也是我們認為為什么裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)會在06,07年(nian)爆發。截(jie)至(zhi)07年(nian)五(wu)大發電集團仍然(ran)還有527萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千瓦(wa)的(de)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)需要(yao)完成,這些需求都(dou)將在2010年(nian)之前(qian)得(de)到(dao)體現。

2.風(feng)電行業(ye)逐漸從政策(ce)驅動(dong)(dong)轉(zhuan)向經濟驅動(dong)(dong)

國(guo)家政(zheng)(zheng)策的導向是盡量降(jiang)低風(feng)(feng)力發電(dian)成(cheng)本,從(cong)而減(jian)少(shao)社會所額(e)(e)外負(fu)擔的成(cheng)本,為了達此目(mu)的,通過的方式是培(pei)養中(zhong)國(guo)自己風(feng)(feng)電(dian)產(chan)(chan)業鏈,提高(gao)風(feng)(feng)電(dian)設(she)備(bei)(bei)的國(guo)產(chan)(chan)化率(lv)。2003,2004特許權項目(mu)采用的最低價中(zhong)標原則,2005年出(chu)臺的《發改(gai)委關于(yu)風(feng)(feng)電(dian)建設(she)管理(li)有(you)關要(yao)求(qiu)的通知(zhi)》中(zhong)要(yao)求(qiu)風(feng)(feng)電(dian)設(she)備(bei)(bei)國(guo)產(chan)(chan)化率(lv)達到70%,都是出(chu)于(yu)這(zhe)個目(mu)的。這(zhe)些(xie)政(zheng)(zheng)策使得(de)內資整機制造商的競爭能力明顯提高(gao),同(tong)時(shi)也在短期內培(pei)育起了中(zhong)國(guo)的風(feng)(feng)電(dian)產(chan)(chan)業生產(chan)(chan)鏈。2007年《可再(zai)生能源中(zhong)長期發展(zhan)規劃(hua)》中(zhong)對大型(xing)發電(dian)集團(tuan)的配額(e)(e)要(yao)求(qiu)更是直接提供了需(xu)求(qiu)。這(zhe)些(xie)政(zheng)(zheng)策使得(de)目(mu)前中(zhong)國(guo)的風(feng)(feng)電(dian)產(chan)(chan)業初(chu)具規模,從(cong)這(zhe)點上說這(zhe)些(xie)政(zheng)(zheng)策是成(cheng)功的。

但特許權(quan)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)每次裝機量較大(da)且眾(zhong)多(duo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)前(qian)期事項(xiang)(xiang)國家都(dou)已做完,因(yin)此對(dui)大(da)型(xing)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)集團很有(you)吸引(yin)力,由于大(da)型(xing)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)集團實(shi)力強,能夠接(jie)受(shou)風電(dian)(dian)場(chang)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)微(wei)(wei)利或微(wei)(wei)虧(kui),加之眾(zhong)多(duo)投資(zi)者希望借(jie)此進入風電(dian)(dian)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye),因(yin)此前(qian)期特許權(quan)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)上網電(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)價(jia)(jia)格很低,使得風電(dian)(dian)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)投資(zi)回報很低甚至是虧(kui)損,這極大(da)的(de)(de)(de)(de)影響了(le)風電(dian)(dian)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)健康(kang)發(fa)展(zhan)。因(yin)為(wei)僅僅靠(kao)政策提(ti)供的(de)(de)(de)(de)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)是不穩定(ding),行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)健康(kang)穩定(ding)的(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)展(zhan),離不開行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)需(xu)(xu)擁有(you)合理的(de)(de)(de)(de)回報,只有(you)有(you)了(le)合理的(de)(de)(de)(de)回報,才會有(you)持(chi)續的(de)(de)(de)(de)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)。國家也(ye)已認識到(dao)這個問題(ti),從后(hou)面的(de)(de)(de)(de)分析可以(yi)看到(dao),電(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)對(dui)風電(dian)(dian)場(chang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)盈利能力非常重(zhong)要,為(wei)了(le)合理提(ti)高競標時的(de)(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia),國家每年都(dou)在對(dui)特許權(quan)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)中標規則進行(xing)(xing)修改:

2003.最低價中標;本地化率不低于50%

2004.最低價中(zhong)標;本地化率不低于60%;單機容量不小于600kw

2005.電價(jia)權(quan)重為(wei)40%;本地化率不低于70%;單(dan)機容量不小于600kw;總(zong)裝由國內廠商(shang)提供(gong)

2006.電價權重(zhong)為30%;本地化率不低于(yu)(yu)70%;單(dan)機容量不小(xiao)于(yu)(yu)750kw;

投標人應選擇好風電設備(bei)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)商(shang)共同投標,中標不得在進行設備(bei)招標另選制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)商(shang)

2007.電價(jia)權重(zhong)占(zhan)(zhan)25%;機組本地化方(fang)案(an)占(zhan)(zhan)35%;技術占(zhan)(zhan)20%;投融資能力占(zhan)(zhan)10%;項目財務方(fang)案(an)占(zhan)(zhan)10%(目前最新(xin)的招標中,為電價(jia)最接近(jin)去掉最高和最低(di)價(jia)的平均價(jia)為最優)

經過這些規(gui)則的調整特許(xu)權項(xiang)目的價格逐步向理性化靠(kao)攏(long),中標電(dian)價都在0.5元左右的項(xiang)目,其(qi)有效發電(dian)小時(shi)數逐年提(ti)高。

目(mu)前一個典型4.95萬kw風電場(chang)的(de)(de)盈(ying)利概算,可以算出目(mu)前以1.5mw機組建(jian)設的(de)(de)風電場(chang)基本(ben)能(neng)夠盈(ying)利,而用750kw機組建(jian)設的(de)(de)風電場(chang)已經能(neng)夠獲得(de)很不錯(cuo)的(de)(de)收益率。

我們(men)認(ren)為(wei)目前中國的風電(dian)行業(ye)盈利能(neng)力已(yi)經(jing)有了足(zu)夠的吸引(yin)能(neng)力,各大發電(dian)集(ji)團投資風電(dian)場已(yi)經(jing)不再僅僅是為(wei)了完成配額,隨著兆瓦(wa)級機組發電(dian)成本的下降和(he)穩(wen)定性得到(dao)證(zheng)明,將會有越(yue)來越(yue)多的投資者進(jin)入(ru)風電(dian)領域。風電(dian)行業(ye)的驅(qu)動因素已(yi)經(jing)從(cong)政策(ce)逐步(bu)轉向為(wei)市場。

四、未(wei)來(lai)中國(guo)風電行業前景仍(reng)然非常(chang)廣闊

在經(jing)歷了行(xing)業(ye)經(jing)歷了高速增長之后,未來前(qian)景(jing)如何,是(shi)我們(men)(men)非常關心的(de)(de)問題,為了預(yu)測未來中國風(feng)電行(xing)業(ye)的(de)(de)前(qian)景(jing),我們(men)(men)采用的(de)(de)方(fang)法是(shi):一是(shi)預(yu)計(ji)(ji)中國2020年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)發電量(liang)。二是(shi)預(yu)計(ji)(ji)中國2020年(nian)(nian)風(feng)力(li)發電量(liang)占(zhan)總(zong)發電量(liang)的(de)(de)占(zhan)比。三是(shi)用預(yu)測的(de)(de)發電量(liang)和風(feng)力(li)發電量(liang)占(zhan)總(zong)發電量(liang)的(de)(de)占(zhan)比算出(chu)2020的(de)(de)裝機量(liang),然后往(wang)回推出(chu)中國風(feng)電行(xing)業(ye)到2020年(nian)(nian)可能(neng)的(de)(de)發展趨勢(shi)。

為了預測(ce)(ce)2020年中(zhong)(zhong)國的(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang),我們采(cai)(cai)(cai)用(yong)(yong)了四(si)種方(fang)法來(lai)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)預測(ce)(ce),然后(hou)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)相互間的(de)(de)比(bi)較,看是(shi)否合理:一是(shi)采(cai)(cai)(cai)用(yong)(yong)中(zhong)(zhong)國過去發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)和GDP的(de)(de)關系來(lai)預測(ce)(ce)2020年中(zhong)(zhong)國的(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)。二是(shi)采(cai)(cai)(cai)用(yong)(yong)日本工業(ye)化(hua)時期的(de)(de)數據(ju)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)對比(bi)。三是(shi)用(yong)(yong)中(zhong)(zhong)國不(bu)同(tong)地區人均的(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)的(de)(de)關系來(lai)預測(ce)(ce)2020年人均發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang),進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)而(er)算出(chu)2020年中(zhong)(zhong)國的(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)。四(si)是(shi)用(yong)(yong)日本工業(ye)化(hua)時期人均發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)的(de)(de)增(zeng)長(chang)模式(shi)來(lai)預測(ce)(ce)未來(lai)中(zhong)(zhong)國人均發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)的(de)(de)增(zeng)長(chang)模式(shi),進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)而(er)算出(chu)2020年中(zhong)(zhong)國的(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)。

1.中(zhong)國GDP增(zeng)速(su)和發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)速(su)正相關,發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)彈性(xing)系數(shu)約為1

從(cong)1978年開(kai)始(shi),中國的發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)速和GDP增(zeng)速呈明顯的正相關性。發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)相對GDP彈性系數和經(jing)濟(ji)發(fa)展模(mo)式分不(bu)開(kai),為了更加(jia)清(qing)楚的看(kan)到經(jing)濟(ji)發(fa)展模(mo)式對彈性系數的影(ying)響,我們(men)將1989-1990,1997-1998兩(liang)個受政治和金融危機影(ying)響的時段去(qu)掉:

在對1989-1990,1997-1998兩(liang)個時(shi)段進行修正之(zhi)后(hou),我們可以得到發電量(liang)彈(dan)性系數的三個時(shi)段:

1981-1984:0.5左右

1986-1996:0.8左右

2000-2007:1.2左右

不(bu)同的(de)(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)量彈(dan)(dan)性(xing)系數(shu)和中(zhong)國經(jing)濟(ji)的(de)(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)展階段分不(bu)開,從1981-1984的(de)(de)(de)經(jing)濟(ji)增(zeng)長主要是(shi)農村的(de)(de)(de)改(gai)革而(er)(er)帶動(dong),因此發(fa)(fa)電(dian)量的(de)(de)(de)彈(dan)(dan)性(xing)系數(shu)比較低;而(er)(er)1986-1996主要是(shi)鄉鎮企業(ye),以及(ji)(ji)城(cheng)市化(hua)過程中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)一些輕工(gong)業(ye)帶動(dong);而(er)(er)2000開始,中(zhong)國加入WTO中(zhong)國成為世界工(gong)廠,經(jing)濟(ji)主要靠出口,房地(di)產(chan)以及(ji)(ji)重(zhong)工(gong)業(ye)帶動(dong)(其中(zhong)化(hua)學,黑(hei)色金屬冶煉(lian)及(ji)(ji)延壓(ya),有色金屬冶煉(lian)及(ji)(ji)延壓(ya),非金屬制(zhi)品的(de)(de)(de)耗(hao)電(dian)占全行業(ye)耗(hao)電(dian)的(de)(de)(de)60%左(zuo)右),并(bing)且從2005年開始出口開始升(sheng)級,因此在這個過程中(zhong)耗(hao)電(dian)量的(de)(de)(de)彈(dan)(dan)性(xing)系數(shu)明顯上(shang)升(sheng)。

考慮到中國城(cheng)市(shi)化進程才過半,基(ji)礎設仍然(ran)比(bi)較薄弱,對汽車(che),住(zhu)房等需求穩定,以及(ji)出口產(chan)品的(de)升級才開(kai)始不久,我們認為截至(zhi)2020年,中國經濟的(de)發展仍然(ran)會(hui)以城(cheng)市(shi)化為主要推動(dong)力,出口將會(hui)以機械為主,因(yin)此發電量的(de)彈性系(xi)數(shu)(shu)會(hui)比(bi)1986-1996高。另外由(you)于經濟結(jie)構(gou)的(de)逐(zhu)步(bu)轉型,高能耗產(chan)業維(wei)持快速(su)發展可能性不太,因(yin)此發電量的(de)彈性系(xi)數(shu)(shu)會(hui)比(bi)2000-2007年低。

綜合(he)考(kao)慮,在(zai)中長(chang)期內中國的(de)發電量增速對GDP的(de)彈(dan)性系數將(jiang)在(zai)1左(zuo)右。

2.日(ri)本工業(ye)化時期發電量增(zeng)速(su)和(he)GDP增(zeng)速(su)的關系(xi)和(he)中(zhong)國目前相似(si)。

截至1971日(ri)本(ben)基本(ben)完成了工業化,考慮到中國的中國由于地區發展不平橫,工業化時期應比日(ri)本(ben)要長(chang)。

在工(gong)(gong)業(ye)化時期(qi)發(fa)(fa)電量的(de)絕對(dui)額(e)有明顯的(de)增(zeng)長,而且增(zeng)速(su)很快(kuai),達到13%左右(you);工(gong)(gong)業(ye)化后(hou)(80年(nian)代(dai)開(kai)始(shi))雖然發(fa)(fa)電量的(de)仍在增(zeng)加(jia)但增(zeng)速(su)已從(cong)13%左右(you)降到了4%左右(you);進入2000年(nian)后(hou),發(fa)(fa)電量趨(qu)于平穩。另外發(fa)(fa)電量從(cong)1945年(nian)起就(jiu)開(kai)始(shi)保持高速(su)增(zeng)長,直到1971年(nian)工(gong)(gong)業(ye)化基(ji)(ji)本完成,整(zheng)整(zheng)26年(nian)時間。考(kao)率到日(ri)本戰(zhan)前(qian)就(jiu)已經(jing)具有不錯的(de)工(gong)(gong)業(ye)基(ji)(ji)礎(chu)和技術水平,戰(zhan)后(hou)恢復很快(kuai),以(yi)及中(zhong)國地區(qu)的(de)發(fa)(fa)展水平及地理面積比(bi)日(ri)本大很多,中(zhong)國工(gong)(gong)業(ye)化所需時間應該比(bi)日(ri)本更長。

日本在工(gong)業化時期,可以看到發電量彈性(xing)系(xi)(xi)(xi)數(shu)基本維持在1.5左(zuo)右,和中國進(jin)入千年后的(de)(de)彈性(xing)系(xi)(xi)(xi)數(shu)比較付合。進(jin)入90代后由于GDP增速太小,導致微笑的(de)(de)波動都會將彈性(xing)系(xi)(xi)(xi)數(shu)明顯的(de)(de)放(fang)大,因(yin)此90年代的(de)(de)彈性(xing)系(xi)(xi)(xi)數(shu)不能很好(hao)的(de)(de)反映與G DP的(de)(de)關系(xi)(xi)(xi);

從對日(ri)本工業(ye)化發展過(guo)程中發電(dian)量和GDP的(de)(de)(de)(de)關系(xi)中可以看出我(wo)們做(zuo)出的(de)(de)(de)(de)發電(dian)量對GDP的(de)(de)(de)(de)彈性系(xi)數為(wei)1假設是(shi)合理的(de)(de)(de)(de)。假設至2008年(nian)GDP的(de)(de)(de)(de)增速(su)能保持7.5%,那(nei)么發電(dian)量的(de)(de)(de)(de)增速(su)也為(wei)7.5%,按此(ci)可估算出2020年(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)發電(dian)量為(wei):84000億千瓦時

3.按中國各地(di)人均(jun)耗電(dian)量來預測(ce),2020年中國的耗電(dian)量將達(da)到66500萬千瓦

中(zhong)國各(ge)地(di)區(qu)人(ren)均(jun)GDP和人(ren)均(jun)耗電量成正比,并且顯(xian)示出明(ming)(ming)顯(xian)的(de)(de)線性關(guan)系,這說明(ming)(ming)中(zhong)國各(ge)地(di)區(qu)經(jing)(jing)濟差異可能更多的(de)(de)是(shi)量上的(de)(de)差異而不(bu)是(shi)經(jing)(jing)濟模式上的(de)(de)差異。

目前中國人(ren)均GDP為19492元(yuan),假如中國經濟(ji)模式(shi)不發生大的變化(hua),人(ren)均GDP增速到2020年保(bao)持7.5%,那么到2020年人(ren)均GDP將達到49900元(yuan),人(ren)均耗電量達到0.475億千瓦時/萬人(ren),按(an)14億人(ren)口(kou)算,到2020年中國的耗電量為66500萬千瓦。

4.按日(ri)本(ben)人均(jun)發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)的(de)正增長模式來看,中國2020的(de)發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)將到65000萬千瓦和日(ri)本(ben)的(de)人均(jun)發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)相比,我(wo)國人均(jun)電(dian)量(liang)只相當于日(ri)本(ben)1966年的(de)水平。

日(ri)本(ben)在1966年(nian)人(ren)(ren)均(jun)發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)達到2174kw/h,經(jing)過14年(nian)的(de)發(fa)展到1980年(nian)人(ren)(ren)均(jun)發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)到了4933kw/h;假如中國的(de)發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)長和日(ri)本(ben)一至,那么(me)截至2006年(nian)中國人(ren)(ren)均(jun)發(fa)電(dian)2057,到2020年(nian)應(ying)該有4667kw,按14億(yi)人(ren)(ren)口算,到2020年(nian)中國的(de)發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)應(ying)該有65338萬(wan)億(yi)千瓦(wa)時。

篇2

[ 關鍵(jian)詞(ci) ] 中(zhong)小型企業 醫療器械 企業風(feng)險

一、我國中小型(xing)醫(yi)療器械企業劃分的標準

有關我國(guo)中(zhong)小(xiao)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)統計(ji)信息十(shi)(shi)分(fen)(fen)缺乏,而且關于中(zhong)小(xiao)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)定(ding)義(yi)的(de)(de)標(biao)準(zhun)(zhun)又十(shi)(shi)分(fen)(fen)模糊。數(shu)(shu)據(ju)方(fang)面的(de)(de)問題使(shi)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)我國(guo)中(zhong)小(xiao)型醫療器械企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)作(zuo)用十(shi)(shi)分(fen)(fen)困難(nan)。1988年關于中(zhong)小(xiao)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)最近的(de)(de)定(ding)義(yi)規(gui)則,按照不(bu)(bu)同(tong)的(de)(de)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)標(biao)準(zhun)(zhun)以(yi)(yi)及企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)職工(gong)(gong)(gong)人數(shu)(shu)、銷售額(e)來(lai)劃(hua)(hua)分(fen)(fen)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)規(gui)模。這種劃(hua)(hua)分(fen)(fen)方(fang)法對不(bu)(bu)同(tong)的(de)(de)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)規(gui)定(ding)了不(bu)(bu)同(tong)的(de)(de)產出(chu)標(biao)準(zhun)(zhun)和職工(gong)(gong)(gong)人數(shu)(shu),據(ju)以(yi)(yi)劃(hua)(hua)分(fen)(fen)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)規(gui)模,對比許多(duo)國(guo)家按照職工(gong)(gong)(gong)人數(shu)(shu)或職工(gong)(gong)(gong)人數(shu)(shu)與總產出(chu)相結(jie)合的(de)(de)標(biao)準(zhun)(zhun),我國(guo)的(de)(de)劃(hua)(hua)分(fen)(fen)標(biao)準(zhun)(zhun)要(yao)復(fu)雜得(de)多(duo)。但是,運用我國(guo)的(de)(de)分(fen)(fen)類(lei)方(fang)法進行(xing)(xing)研究時,由(you)于劃(hua)(hua)分(fen)(fen)標(biao)準(zhun)(zhun)過多(duo)過細,使(shi)得(de)許多(duo)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)難(nan)以(yi)(yi)歸(gui)類(lei)。另外,我國(guo)的(de)(de)分(fen)(fen)類(lei)方(fang)法也難(nan)以(yi)(yi)進行(xing)(xing)跨(kua)(kua)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)比較(jiao),更難(nan)以(yi)(yi)進行(xing)(xing)跨(kua)(kua)國(guo)比較(jiao)。

對醫療(liao)器(qi)械(xie)行業(ye)來講,醫療(liao)器(qi)械(xie)行業(ye)屬于高科技產(chan)業(ye),其企業(ye)劃分標(biao)準(zhun)不等(deng)同于工業(ye)企業(ye)劃分標(biao)準(zhun),且我國對醫療(liao)器(qi)械(xie)企業(ye)的劃分并沒有相應的標(biao)準(zhun)。為(wei)此,本(ben)文將通過(guo)與其它行業(ye)標(biao)準(zhun)的劃分籠統上對中小(xiao)型醫療(liao)器(qi)械(xie)企業(ye)進(jin)行界定,如表(biao)1所示(shi)。

二、風險管理在醫療器械(xie)領域的(de)應用

根(gen)據世(shi)界(jie)各國的(de)(de)經驗,為了保證醫療(liao)器械的(de)(de)安全性,除了要貫徹(che)一系(xi)列有關的(de)(de)安全標準以外(wai),還要對醫療(liao)器械的(de)(de)風險(xian)進行管理,分(fen)析醫療(liao)器械的(de)(de)風險(xian)水(shui)平,判(pan)斷其(qi)可接受性。

國(guo)家藥品監督管(guan)(guan)理(li)局于2000年(nian)1月31日(ri)批準醫(yi)藥行業標(biao)準YY/T0316-2000,其(qi)中醫(yi)療器械風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)第(di)一(yi)部分為風(feng)險(xian)分析的(de)應用(yong)(yong),于2000年(nian)7月1日(ri)開始實(shi)(shi)施,到(dao)現在已經(jing)有(you)近三年(nian)的(de)時(shi)間(jian)。YY/T0316-2000等同(tong)采用(yong)(yong)了(le)ISO14971―1:1998,該標(biao)準是國(guo)際先進(jin)經(jing)驗的(de)總(zong)結,該標(biao)準實(shi)(shi)施兩(liang)年(nian)多來,對我國(guo)醫(yi)療器械安全性和有(you)效性程(cheng)度的(de)提高很大,在醫(yi)療器械行業更快地和國(guo)際同(tong)行接(jie)軌(gui)方面也近一(yi)步拉近了(le)距(ju)離。

該標準的(de)第(di)三(san)章第(di)一(yi)條(tiao)規定(ding):“制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)商(shang)(shang)應把風(feng)險(xian)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)程序(xu)實施(shi)及(ji)其結果的(de)記錄形成(cheng)文件并(bing)予以保存。”根據制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)商(shang)(shang)的(de)定(ding)義,只要是把醫療器械(xie)(xie)上市或投(tou)入(ru)使用的(de)法人(ren)或自然人(ren),不管(guan)是否自己(ji)完成(cheng)設計、制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)等工作,都要承(cheng)擔制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)商(shang)(shang)的(de)責任。因此,要求按GB/T9002和(he)(he)YY/T0288申請認(ren)證的(de)企(qi)業也(ye)必須進(jin)行(xing)風(feng)險(xian)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)工作。在這一(yi)點上,YY/T0316-2000的(de)要求是和(he)(he)歐(ou)洲標準NEl441醫療器械(xie)(xie)風(feng)險(xian)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)要求是一(yi)樣的(de)。我國(guo)醫療器械(xie)(xie)監督管(guan)理條(tiao)例中第(di)十(shi)九條(tiao)關于醫療器械(xie)(xie)生產企(qi)業的(de)三(san)項(xiang)條(tiao)件也(ye)未涉及(ji)設計問題,而只強調生產。

所以(yi),風險(xian)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)已經(jing)成為我國(guo)廣大醫(yi)(yi)療(liao)器械(xie)生產者普遍關(guan)(guan)注的(de)(de)(de)問題。風險(xian)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)是(shi)用以(yi)判定危害(hai)并估計(ji)風險(xian)的(de)(de)(de)可得資(zi)料的(de)(de)(de)研究。因(yin)此,要(yao)進(jin)行風險(xian)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi),首(shou)先(xian)對(dui)要(yao)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)的(de)(de)(de)醫(yi)(yi)療(liao)器械(xie)的(de)(de)(de)可能危害(hai)進(jin)行判定,其方法就是(shi)提示若干與患(huan)者、用戶(hu)和周圍環境安全有關(guan)(guan)的(de)(de)(de)問題,以(yi)此作為線索,判定可能的(de)(de)(de)危害(hai)。然后估計(ji)風險(xian),這包括(kuo)兩個(ge)主要(yao)因(yin)素:即(ji)損(sun)害(hai)的(de)(de)(de)嚴重(zhong)程度和導致損(sun)害(hai)的(de)(de)(de)危害(hai)發生概(gai)率。前者不難(nan)判斷(duan),但發生概(gai)率數據(ju)(ju)的(de)(de)(de)獲得并非(fei)十分(fen)(fen)簡單(dan),沒有適當的(de)(de)(de)方法和必要(yao)的(de)(de)(de)工作,則難(nan)以(yi)判斷(duan)發生概(gai)率是(shi)多少,而沒有發生概(gai)率的(de)(de)(de)量化數據(ju)(ju),則無(wu)法估計(ji)風險(xian)的(de)(de)(de)大小。

三、ISO14971中對醫(yi)療器械(xie)風險管理的(de)要求

ISO14971是(shi)針對(dui)醫療器械風(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)的系統的標(biao)準,它規(gui)定了醫療器械風(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)的完(wan)整(zheng)的程序(xu)。該標(biao)準由引言、范(fan)圍、術(shu)語(yu)和(he)定義、通用要(yao)求、風(feng)(feng)險(xian)分析、風(feng)(feng)險(xian)評價(jia)、風(feng)(feng)險(xian)控制、剩余(yu)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)評價(jia)、風(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)報告、生產后(hou)信息(xi)、附錄這幾個主要(yao)部分組(zu)成。

在“引言(yan)”中,15014971說明了制造商進行風(feng)險(xian)管理的(de)意義,即通過對風(feng)險(xian)的(de)判斷來決定產品(pin)預期(qi)用途,達(da)到(dao)判斷上市的(de)適宜性的(de)目的(de)。

在(zai)“范(fan)圍”中,15014971說明(ming)了該標(biao)準給醫療器械制造商(shang)提供了一個進行風(feng)險(xian)管理(li)的(de)程序,以及(ji)該標(biao)準的(de)適用范(fan)圍。在(zai)“術(shu)語和定(ding)義”中,15014971對醫療器械、風(feng)險(xian)管理(li)及(ji)其各部分(fen)的(de)概念進行了界定(ding)。

在“通用要求(qiu)”中(zhong)(zhong),工5014971對制造(zao)(zao)商的(de)(de)風險管(guan)理(li)過程(cheng)進(jin)(jin)行(xing)了規定,并要求(qiu)制造(zao)(zao)商對此(ci)過程(cheng)進(jin)(jin)行(xing)事前(qian)的(de)(de)計劃于事后(hou)的(de)(de)記錄,在此(ci)處標(biao)準(zhun)中(zhong)(zhong)使用“應(ying)”(Shall)而非(fei) “應(ying)當”(should)來表示較強程(cheng)度(du)的(de)(de)要求(qiu)而非(fei)一般意義上的(de)(de)指導。

在(zai)(zai)“風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)分析”、“風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評價(jia)”、“風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)控(kong)制(zhi)”、“剩余風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評價(jia)”、“風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理報告”、 “生(sheng)(sheng)產后(hou)(hou)(hou)信息(xi)”幾(ji)部分中(zhong)(zhong),15014971對制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)商(shang)所進行(xing)的(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理的(de)各項活動進行(xing)了要(yao)(yao)求(qiu)。在(zai)(zai)“風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)分析”中(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)(yao)求(qiu)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)商(shang)判定危(wei)害、估計風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian),并(bing)予(yu)以(yi)(yi)記(ji)(ji)(ji)錄(lu)(lu)。在(zai)(zai)“風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評價(jia)”中(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)(yao)求(qiu)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)商(shang)依據風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)可(ke)接受性準則判斷風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)是否需(xu)要(yao)(yao)降低,并(bing)予(yu)以(yi)(yi)記(ji)(ji)(ji)錄(lu)(lu)。在(zai)(zai)“風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)控(kong)制(zhi)”中(zhong)(zhong)對風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)控(kong)制(zhi)的(de)依據、具體措施、以(yi)(yi)及無法控(kong)制(zhi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)處理進行(xing)了要(yao)(yao)求(qiu),并(bing)要(yao)(yao)求(qiu)予(yu)以(yi)(yi)記(ji)(ji)(ji)錄(lu)(lu)。在(zai)(zai)“剩余風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評價(jia)”中(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)(yao)求(qiu)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)商(shang)對全部的(de)剩余風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)進行(xing)可(ke)接受性評價(jia),并(bing)予(yu)以(yi)(yi)記(ji)(ji)(ji)錄(lu)(lu)。在(zai)(zai)“風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理報告”中(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)(yao)求(qiu)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)商(shang)記(ji)(ji)(ji)錄(lu)(lu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理活動的(de)結果,并(bing)保(bao)證(zheng)可(ke)溯源性。在(zai)(zai)“生(sheng)(sheng)產后(hou)(hou)(hou)信息(xi)”中(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)(yao)求(qiu)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)商(shang)保(bao)持用于評審上市后(hou)(hou)(hou)信息(xi)的(de)程(cheng)序(xu)并(bing)予(yu)以(yi)(yi)記(ji)(ji)(ji)錄(lu)(lu)。

在(zai)(zai)“附錄”中,對醫療(liao)器械風(feng)險管(guan)理中的(de)具體(ti)問題進行(xing)了說明,例如在(zai)(zai)附錄F中列舉了失效模式與效應(ying)分析(xi)(FMEA)和故障樹分析(xi)(FTA)等具體(ti)的(de)風(feng)險分析(xi)方法。

由此可見,就醫療器械風險管理而言,15014971是目前針對性最(zui)強,也是最(zui)為系統(tong)和全面的標準。

此標(biao)準對醫(yi)療(liao)器(qi)械監管與(yu)行(xing)業發展的(de)(de)適用性體(ti)現(xian)在(zai)(zai)以(yi)下幾(ji)方面(mian)(mian)。首(shou)先,在(zai)(zai)“引言”中(zhong)明確(que)了醫(yi)療(liao)器(qi)械風險(xian)的(de)(de)范(fan)圍,即(ji)對患者的(de)(de)風險(xian)。其次,在(zai)(zai)“范(fan)圍”中(zhong)明確(que)了醫(yi)療(liao)器(qi)械風險(xian)管理(li)(li)的(de)(de)適用階段,即(ji)產品(pin)的(de)(de)整(zheng)個(ge)生命周期中(zhong)。最(zui)后,在(zai)(zai)“通(tong)用要求(qiu)”提供了醫(yi)療(liao)器(qi)械風險(xian)管理(li)(li)的(de)(de)步驟(zou)。這幾(ji)方面(mian)(mian)可以(yi)為政府監管和企業提高產品(pin)安全性方面(mian)(mian)提供思(si)路(lu)與(yu)依據。

四(si)、中小型(xing)醫療(liao)器械(xie)企(qi)業風險的現狀(zhuang)

目前(qian),我國很多醫療(liao)器械生產企業尚未進行(xing)風(feng)險分(fen)(fen)析(xi),進行(xing)過風(feng)險分(fen)(fen)析(xi)的(de)企業中(zhong),絕(jue)大多數的(de)風(feng)險分(fen)(fen)析(xi)報告不符(fu)合標準要(yao)求。其主要(yao)表現是(shi),只簡單地羅列一些可(ke)能的(de)危害(hai),然后(hou)(hou)說(shuo)明采取了防護措施(shi),最后(hou)(hou)表示可(ke)以滿足要(yao)求,醫療(liao)器械是(shi)安(an)全的(de)。

風險(xian)(xian)(xian)是導致損(sun)害發生(sheng)概(gai)(gai)率及損(sun)害嚴重程度(du)的(de)結(jie)合。為了(le)說明風險(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)大小,發生(sheng)概(gai)(gai)率和嚴重程度(du)缺一(yi)不可(ke)。從目前看到的(de)國(guo)外風險(xian)(xian)(xian)分(fen)析材料來看,無(wu)一(yi)不是考慮(lv)了(le)兩個因素。也只有這樣,才能得出風險(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)量化數(shu)據,從而判斷其是否可(ke)以接受。

但是(shi),YY/T0316-2000只規定了(le)風(feng)險分(fen)(fen)析的(de)程度,并未介紹風(feng)險分(fen)(fen)析的(de)具體方法,特別是(shi)估計發生(sheng)概率的(de)具體方法;只是(shi)在附(fu)錄D中以一頁的(de)篇幅簡單地提(ti)到(dao)了(le)失(shi)效模式與(yu)效應分(fen)(fen)析(FMEA)、故障樹分(fen)(fen)析(FTA)和(he)危害和(he)可(ke)運行性研究 (HAZOP)的(de)各自特點。因此,如何使風(feng)險分(fen)(fen)析取得(de)量化的(de)數據(ju),便成為風(feng)險分(fen)(fen)析的(de)關鍵工作。

要(yao)提高風險管理(li)(li)在(zai)(zai)我(wo)(wo)國(guo)醫療器(qi)械領域的(de)應(ying)用(yong)水平,不僅僅是以(yi)企業(ye)一(yi)方(fang)的(de)行(xing)動為主,應(ying)從政府(fu)監管部門、生(sheng)產企業(ye)等多(duo)個(ge)利益相(xiang)關(guan)方(fang)入手(shou)。一(yi)方(fang)面需要(yao)監管者(zhe)將法(fa)規中的(de)風險管理(li)(li)要(yao)求(qiu)系統化(hua);另(ling)一(yi)方(fang)面需要(yao)生(sheng)產企業(ye)強化(hua)風險管理(li)(li)意識,掌握(wo)行(xing)業(ye)標準(zhun);還需要(yao)對醫療器(qi)械產品的(de)使用(yong)者(zhe)即潛在(zai)(zai)使用(yong)者(zhe)進行(xing)風險相(xiang)關(guan)的(de)宣傳教育。在(zai)(zai)上述措施的(de)實(shi)施過(guo)程中應(ying)以(yi)我(wo)(wo)國(guo)的(de)實(shi)際情(qing)況為基礎,將風險管理(li)(li)的(de)方(fang)法(fa)和(he)理(li)(li)念落實(shi)到(dao)具體工作中。

參考文獻:

[1]ISO/IEC GUIDE 51-1999.Safety aspects-Guidelines for their inclusion in standards[S].Geneva:150eopyrightoffiee,1999

篇3

關鍵詞:內(nei)部審計(ji) 風險管(guan)理 協(xie)同效應

隨著現代企業(ye)(ye)規范程度(du)的(de)(de)提(ti)高和各個行(xing)業(ye)(ye)監管(guan)力度(du)的(de)(de)加強,內部審(shen)計(ji)、風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)等工(gong)作受(shou)到了越(yue)來越(yue)多的(de)(de)重視,國資委有《中央企業(ye)(ye)全面(mian)風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)指(zhi)引》,許(xu)多行(xing)業(ye)(ye)都先后(hou)了行(xing)業(ye)(ye)風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)指(zhi)引,可見監管(guan)部門對此(ci)的(de)(de)重視。而就(jiu)世界(jie)范圍而言,美國《薩班斯――奧克利斯法案》頒布、COSO框架體系(xi)建立,也(ye)都是(shi)(shi)對企業(ye)(ye)內部風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)的(de)(de)加強。那么,什么是(shi)(shi)內部審(shen)計(ji),什么是(shi)(shi)風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li),兩(liang)(liang)者的(de)(de)關系(xi)如何, 兩(liang)(liang)者結(jie)合的(de)(de)意(yi)義有哪些,本文將就(jiu)這些方面(mian)作進一步探討,并在(zai)此(ci)基礎(chu)上(shang)研(yan)究企業(ye)(ye)如何發揮兩(liang)(liang)者的(de)(de)協同效應(ying)。

■一(yi)、內部(bu)審計與(yu)風險(xian)管理(li)的(de)關(guan)系

要理(li)(li)(li)(li)順內部(bu)審(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)與風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)關系,首(shou)先要清楚內部(bu)審(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)、風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)概(gai)念。所謂內部(bu)審(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji),國際內部(bu)審(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)師協會(IIA)在(zai)《內部(bu)審(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)實(shi)(shi)務標準》中將內部(bu)審(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)定(ding)義為一(yi)種獨立、客觀的(de)(de)(de)保證工(gong)作(zuo)和(he)咨詢活動,其(qi)目(mu)的(de)(de)(de)在(zai)于為組(zu)(zu)(zu)織(zhi)增加價值并提高(gao)組(zu)(zu)(zu)織(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)運作(zuo)效(xiao)率,采用(yong)(yong)系統化(hua)、現代化(hua)的(de)(de)(de)方(fang)法來(lai)對風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)、控制(zhi)和(he)治理(li)(li)(li)(li)程序進行評價和(he)改善,從(cong)而幫(bang)助組(zu)(zu)(zu)織(zhi)實(shi)(shi)現目(mu)標。而企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)是(shi)一(yi)個(ge)由企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)董事會、管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)層(ceng)和(he)員工(gong)共同參與,應用(yong)(yong)于企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)戰略(lve)制(zhi)定(ding)和(he)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)內部(bu)各(ge)個(ge)層(ceng)次和(he)部(bu)門,用(yong)(yong)于識別可能對企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)造成潛在(zai)影響的(de)(de)(de)事項(xiang),并根據風(feng)險(xian)偏好(hao)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)風(feng)險(xian),為企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)目(mu)標的(de)(de)(de)實(shi)(shi)現提供合理(li)(li)(li)(li)保證的(de)(de)(de)過程。它參與到企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)各(ge)項(xiang)活動之(zhi)中,是(shi)一(yi)個(ge)過程,是(shi)實(shi)(shi)現結果(guo)的(de)(de)(de)一(yi)種方(fang)式。與傳統的(de)(de)(de)項(xiang)目(mu)風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)相比(bi),企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)強調戰略(lve)導向,覆蓋(gai)了組(zu)(zu)(zu)織(zhi)所有的(de)(de)(de)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)層(ceng)次和(he)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)領域,方(fang)法也(ye)更為結構(gou)化(hua)和(he)規(gui)范化(hua)。

內(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)、外部(bu)(bu)(bu)審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)、董事(shi)會(hui)以及(ji)高層(ceng)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)人員被稱為有(you)(you)效公司(si)治(zhi)(zhi)理(li)(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)四大基石。內(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)師的(de)(de)(de)作(zuo)用(yong)是(shi)檢(jian)查(cha)、評估(gu)和(he)(he)分(fen)析組(zu)(zu)織(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)風(feng)險(xian),審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)查(cha)公司(si)對法(fa)律法(fa)規的(de)(de)(de)遵守情況,促進公司(si)在風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)、治(zhi)(zhi)理(li)(li)(li)(li)結構以及(ji)內(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)控(kong)制(zhi)等方面的(de)(de)(de)提高,向(xiang)董事(shi)會(hui)、審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)委員會(hui)以及(ji)高層(ceng)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)人員負責提供保證――風(feng)險(xian)已(yi)被分(fen)散、公司(si)治(zhi)(zhi)理(li)(li)(li)(li)是(shi)有(you)(you)效的(de)(de)(de)、內(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)控(kong)制(zhi)是(shi)健全的(de)(de)(de)。內(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)以企業內(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)信息使用(yong)者為中心,聚焦(jiao)于控(kong)制(zhi)、風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)等關(guan)鍵問題,通過(guo)幫(bang)助(zhu)組(zu)(zu)織(zhi)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)風(feng)險(xian)和(he)(he)提高管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)效率,來增加組(zu)(zu)織(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)價值(zhi)和(he)(he)改(gai)(gai)善公司(si)的(de)(de)(de)經營。因(yin)此,內(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)承擔(dan)了(le)監(jian)督、分(fen)析、評價、檢(jian)察、報告和(he)(he)改(gai)(gai)進等任務(wu),是(shi)企業風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)不可或缺(que)的(de)(de)(de)組(zu)(zu)成部(bu)(bu)(bu)分(fen)。就世界范圍看,風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)已(yi)成為內(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)(de)主要內(nei)(nei)(nei)容(rong)。IIA早就把評價和(he)(he)改(gai)(gai)善組(zu)(zu)織(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)風(feng)險(xian)作(zuo)為內(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)(de)主要內(nei)(nei)(nei)容(rong),其(qi)1999年(nian)制(zhi)定的(de)(de)(de)內(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)定義將風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)和(he)(he)內(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)控(kong)制(zhi)、公司(si)治(zhi)(zhi)理(li)(li)(li)(li)并列作(zuo)為內(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)(de)工作(zuo)對象,2001年(nian)修改(gai)(gai)的(de)(de)(de)《內(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)實務(wu)標準》明確要求內(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)參(can)與風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)和(he)(he)公司(si)治(zhi)(zhi)理(li)(li)(li)(li)過(guo)程。

■二、內(nei)部審計與(yu)風險管理結(jie)合(he)的意義

國際內(nei)部審計(ji)師協(xie)會(hui)多年來一直積極倡導(dao)內(nei)部審計(ji)參與(yu)風(feng)險(xian)管理,它認為內(nei)部審計(ji)為組織提供(gong)價值的(de)(de)兩個非常重要的(de)(de)途徑(jing)是對風(feng)險(xian)管理的(de)(de)充(chong)分性(xing)和對風(feng)險(xian)管理及內(nei)部控(kong)制框(kuang)架的(de)(de)有效性(xing)提供(gong)保證服務。

內(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)審計(ji)與風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管理(li)(li)相(xiang)結合是將風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)作為內(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)審計(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)對象(xiang),打破了原來(lai)(lai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)內(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)審計(ji)只(zhi)關(guan)心內(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)控(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)有效性的(de)(de)(de)(de)局(ju)面(mian),在評(ping)價(jia)內(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)控(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)基礎(chu)上(shang),對企(qi)業(ye)所面(mian)臨(lin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)各(ge)(ge)種風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)進行識別(bie)和分析(xi)。從另一個(ge)角度(du)來(lai)(lai)講,內(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)審計(ji)更加注重(zhong)企(qi)業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)未來(lai)(lai),從影響企(qi)業(ye)目標實(shi)現的(de)(de)(de)(de)各(ge)(ge)種系統風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)和非(fei)系統風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)出(chu)發,就內(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)控(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)是否健全、關(guan)鍵(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)控(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)點是否有效控(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)薄弱的(de)(de)(de)(de)環(huan)節以(yi)(yi)及改進措施(shi)是否有效提(ti)出(chu)認定(ding),來(lai)(lai)評(ping)價(jia)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管理(li)(li)與控(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)對組織目標實(shi)現的(de)(de)(de)(de)影響程度(du)。以(yi)(yi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)為對象(xiang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)審計(ji)在風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管理(li)(li)基礎(chu)上(shang)又進了一步(bu)。風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)審計(ji)就是在風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管理(li)(li)基礎(chu)上(shang)審計(ji)主體通(tong)過對組織風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識別(bie)、風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)價(jia)等(deng)工(gong)作的(de)(de)(de)(de)審計(ji),側重(zhong)對風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管理(li)(li)進行鑒證。

內(nei)部審計(ji)(ji)參與風險管(guan)理(li)(li)不(bu)僅為內(nei)部審計(ji)(ji)自身提供(gong)了發展(zhan)契機,而(er)且作(zuo)為企業內(nei)的(de)(de)一種獨(du)立(li)、客觀(guan)的(de)(de)保(bao)證工(gong)作(zuo)和(he)咨詢活(huo)動,內(nei)部審計(ji)(ji)是(shi)(shi)公司治理(li)(li)必要和(he)有價值的(de)(de)組成部分,能(neng)夠(gou)在風險管(guan)理(li)(li)中發揮(hui)獨(du)特的(de)(de)作(zuo)用,無(wu)論是(shi)(shi)內(nei)部審計(ji)(ji)還是(shi)(shi)風險管(guan)理(li)(li)都能(neng)從雙方的(de)(de)整(zheng)合(he)中提高效(xiao)率,創造(zao)價值。

■三、內部審(shen)計在風(feng)險管理中(zhong)的角色和地位(wei)

國際內(nei)部(bu)(bu)審(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)(ji)師協會(hui)在2004年發(fa)表(biao)的(de)(de)《內(nei)部(bu)(bu)審(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)(ji)在企(qi)(qi)業(ye)風(feng)(feng)險管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)中的(de)(de)角色(se)》意見書(shu)中指(zhi)出(chu):內(nei)部(bu)(bu)審(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)(ji)關于企(qi)(qi)業(ye)風(feng)(feng)險管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)核心角色(se)是(shi)就組(zu)織(zhi)風(feng)(feng)險管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)有(you)效性向董事會(hui)提(ti)供客觀(guan)保(bao)(bao)(bao)證,以幫助(zhu)確(que)信關鍵(jian)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)風(feng)(feng)險被正確(que)管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)及內(nei)部(bu)(bu)控制系統有(you)效運行。因(yin)此,內(nei)部(bu)(bu)審(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)(ji)在企(qi)(qi)業(ye)風(feng)(feng)險管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)架中首要角色(se)是(shi)監督者,包括(kuo)對風(feng)(feng)險管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)流程的(de)(de)評(ping)估(gu)(gu)和(he)保(bao)(bao)(bao)證服務,對風(feng)(feng)險評(ping)估(gu)(gu)準確(que)性的(de)(de)保(bao)(bao)(bao)證服務,對關鍵(jian)風(feng)(feng)險報(bao)告的(de)(de)評(ping)估(gu)(gu)和(he)對關鍵(jian)風(feng)(feng)險管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)評(ping)估(gu)(gu)。

按(an)國際內部(bu)(bu)審(shen)(shen)計師(shi)協(xie)(xie)會的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)標準,內部(bu)(bu)審(shen)(shen)計的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)服(fu)(fu)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)種類可(ke)以(yi)(yi)(yi)分為保證服(fu)(fu)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)和咨(zi)詢(xun)服(fu)(fu)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu),前者(zhe)(zhe)是(shi)一種獨立評(ping)價(jia)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)活(huo)動,后者(zhe)(zhe)是(shi)提(ti)供(gong)(gong)建議及(ji)(ji)咨(zi)詢(xun)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)活(huo)動。內部(bu)(bu)審(shen)(shen)計為整個組織成(cheng)員以(yi)(yi)(yi)及(ji)(ji)組織以(yi)(yi)(yi)外的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)所(suo)有(you)利益(yi)相(xiang)關(guan)主(zhu)體(ti)服(fu)(fu)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu),其(qi)(qi)信(xin)(xin)息服(fu)(fu)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)對(dui)(dui)象的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)需求依其(qi)(qi)所(suo)處的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)位置、環境及(ji)(ji)掌握信(xin)(xin)息的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)不(bu)同(tong)而(er)不(bu)同(tong)。總體(ti)來講,處于(yu)信(xin)(xin)息劣勢的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)服(fu)(fu)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)對(dui)(dui)象希(xi)望內部(bu)(bu)審(shen)(shen)計為其(qi)(qi)提(ti)供(gong)(gong)保證服(fu)(fu)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu),處于(yu)信(xin)(xin)息優勢的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)服(fu)(fu)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)對(dui)(dui)象則更希(xi)望內部(bu)(bu)審(shen)(shen)計為其(qi)(qi)提(ti)供(gong)(gong)咨(zi)詢(xun)服(fu)(fu)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)。其(qi)(qi)中(zhong)(zhong),保證服(fu)(fu)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)是(shi)指為了(le)對(dui)(dui)風(feng)(feng)險管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)。內部(bu)(bu)控制或(huo)公(gong)司的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)治(zhi)理(li)(li)過程提(ti)供(gong)(gong)一個獨立的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)評(ping)價(jia)而(er)對(dui)(dui)證物進行的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)客觀的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)檢(jian)驗;咨(zi)詢(xun)服(fu)(fu)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)是(shi)咨(zi)詢(xun)性(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)以(yi)(yi)(yi)及(ji)(ji)與(yu)(yu)委托(tuo)人服(fu)(fu)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)相(xiang)關(guan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)活(huo)動,其(qi)(qi)性(xing)質(zhi)和范圍是(shi)與(yu)(yu)委托(tuo)人達成(cheng)一致意(yi)見,目的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)是(shi)增(zeng)加(jia)價(jia)值(zhi)和改(gai)進組織的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)經營。在(zai)企(qi)業風(feng)(feng)險管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)中(zhong)(zhong),內部(bu)(bu)審(shen)(shen)計的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)本質(zhi)特征并不(bu)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)改(gai)變,因而(er)它可(ke)以(yi)(yi)(yi)擔任(ren)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)角色也是(shi)基(ji)于(yu)這兩種服(fu)(fu)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)衍生(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)。除了(le)作(zuo)為監督者(zhe)(zhe)所(suo)提(ti)供(gong)(gong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)保證服(fu)(fu)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)之外,內部(bu)(bu)審(shen)(shen)計還提(ti)供(gong)(gong)咨(zi)詢(xun)服(fu)(fu)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu),包(bao)括促進對(dui)(dui)風(feng)(feng)險的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)識(shi)別和評(ping)估(gu)、指導和協(xie)(xie)調風(feng)(feng)險管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)活(huo)動,加(jia)強(qiang)對(dui)(dui)風(feng)(feng)險的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)報告(gao)、保持和發(fa)(fa)展風(feng)(feng)險管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)框架(jia)、支持建立風(feng)(feng)險管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)、參(can)與(yu)(yu)制定風(feng)(feng)險管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)戰略(lve)等。與(yu)(yu)此相(xiang)適應,內部(bu)(bu)審(shen)(shen)計承擔了(le)咨(zi)詢(xun)者(zhe)(zhe)、協(xie)(xie)調者(zhe)(zhe)、建議者(zhe)(zhe)角色。

內(nei)部(bu)審計(ji)在企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)中(zhong)的(de)(de)角色不是(shi)(shi)一成不變(bian)的(de)(de),而(er)是(shi)(shi)一個逐步(bu)變(bian)化和(he)延續(xu)發展過(guo)程(cheng)。在組(zu)織缺乏風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)程(cheng)序的(de)(de)情況下,內(nei)部(bu)審計(ji)可以(yi)向(xiang)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)層提出建立企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)的(de)(de)建議;在組(zu)織實施風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)的(de)(de)初期,內(nei)部(bu)審計(ji)能(neng)夠發揮更大的(de)(de)協調作(zuo)用,甚(shen)至直接擔任項目經(jing)理(li)(li);而(er)當企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)逐步(bu)成熟,運作(zuo)穩(wen)定(ding)以(yi)后,內(nei)部(bu)審計(ji)就(jiu)從建議者(zhe)、協調者(zhe)轉化為監督(du)者(zhe)和(he)咨(zi)詢者(zhe)。內(nei)部(bu)審計(ji)的(de)(de)報告關(guan)系也會影響其在企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)中(zhong)的(de)(de)角色,報告關(guan)系層次(ci)越(yue)(yue)高,獨立性(xing)越(yue)(yue)強,內(nei)部(bu)審計(ji)就(jiu)越(yue)(yue)能(neng)夠從全局和(he)戰略角度(du)參(can)(can)與(yu)企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li);反(fan)之,則從局部(bu)和(he)流程(cheng)角度(du)參(can)(can)與(yu)企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)。

■四、企業如何發(fa)揮內部(bu)審計與風險管(guan)理的協(xie)同效應

按照審(shen)計(ji)署頒(ban)發的(de)(de)《審(shen)計(ji)署關(guan)于(yu)內(nei)部(bu)(bu)審(shen)計(ji)工作(zuo)的(de)(de)規定(ding)》中的(de)(de)有(you)關(guan)規定(ding)以及法人治理(li)的(de)(de)有(you)關(guan)要求,內(nei)部(bu)(bu)審(shen)計(ji)要相對(dui)獨(du)立(li)(li)。因此,通常情況下,內(nei)部(bu)(bu)審(shen)計(ji)部(bu)(bu)門獨(du)立(li)(li)于(yu)公司(si)經營(ying)管(guan)理(li)層,在(zai)業務上直接向董事會(hui)下屬的(de)(de)審(shen)計(ji)委員(yuan)會(hui)匯(hui)報,但這(zhe)并(bing)不等于(yu)內(nei)部(bu)(bu)審(shen)計(ji)部(bu)(bu)門與企業的(de)(de)風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)相脫節,事實上,如果內(nei)部(bu)(bu)審(shen)計(ji)能(neng)夠充分(fen)(fen)利用風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)的(de)(de)相關(guan)信息,最大限度發揮與企業內(nei)部(bu)(bu)風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)的(de)(de)協同效(xiao)用,無論是(shi)審(shen)計(ji)計(ji)劃的(de)(de)制定(ding)還是(shi)審(shen)計(ji)范圍的(de)(de)確定(ding)都將更具(ju)有(you)針對(dui)性,審(shen)計(ji)的(de)(de)效(xiao)果也(ye)會(hui)更好。那么,如何(he)充分(fen)(fen)發揮內(nei)部(bu)(bu)審(shen)計(ji)與風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)的(de)(de)協同效(xiao)應呢?

1、以(yi)企業整體的戰略目標為(wei)基(ji)礎,進行風險分(fen)類,合理分(fen)配審計(ji)資源

企業在(zai)不(bu)同時(shi)期(qi),其戰略(lve)目標(biao)是(shi)不(bu)同的(de),風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)分(fen)布(bu)、風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)偏好以及風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)應(ying)(ying)對(dui)策(ce)(ce)略(lve)都相(xiang)應(ying)(ying)有(you)所(suo)差異,保險(xian)(xian)(xian)企業亦如此。作為(wei)內審部(bu)(bu)門參(can)與風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)管理(li),應(ying)(ying)以公(gong)司(si)(si)整體的(de)戰略(lve)目標(biao)為(wei)基礎,分(fen)析公(gong)司(si)(si)當前的(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)分(fen)布(bu),了解公(gong)司(si)(si)當前的(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)應(ying)(ying)對(dui)策(ce)(ce)略(lve)和風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)承(cheng)受能力,并對(dui)這些(xie)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)進行分(fen)類,有(you)針對(dui)性地制定(ding)審計(ji)計(ji)劃,分(fen)配審計(ji)資源(yuan)。同時(shi),作為(wei)一個全(quan)國性的(de)保險(xian)(xian)(xian)公(gong)司(si)(si)的(de)內部(bu)(bu)審計(ji)部(bu)(bu)門,在(zai)參(can)與風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)管理(li)的(de)時(shi)候,要(yao)清楚不(bu)同層(ceng)級機(ji)構(gou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)分(fen)布(bu)是(shi)不(bu)同的(de),在(zai)總公(gong)司(si)(si)層(ceng)面(mian),主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)是(shi)決策(ce)(ce)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian),在(zai)分(fen)公(gong)司(si)(si)層(ceng)面(mian),主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)是(shi)控制風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian),在(zai)中(zhong)心支公(gong)司(si)(si)及以下機(ji)構(gou),主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)是(shi)經營風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)。

2、充分(fen)獲取風險管理部門(men)的(de)意見,按(an)風險管理的(de)要(yao)求開展內部審(shen)計

風(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)部(bu)門(men)(men)(men)(men)是(shi)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)專業部(bu)門(men)(men)(men)(men),其對(dui)于(yu)公(gong)(gong)司風(feng)險(xian)(xian)分(fen)布的(de)(de)(de)了解最全面(mian)、最準確,內(nei)審部(bu)門(men)(men)(men)(men)應主動(dong)與風(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)部(bu)門(men)(men)(men)(men)溝通,了解目(mu)前(qian)公(gong)(gong)司風(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)基本情況,以及其對(dui)于(yu)目(mu)前(qian)公(gong)(gong)司風(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)看法和意見(jian),并要(yao)求(qiu)其對(dui)待定的(de)(de)(de)審計(ji)項目(mu)提出有針對(dui)性的(de)(de)(de)建議。同時(shi),由于(yu)目(mu)前(qian)大部(bu)分(fen)公(gong)(gong)司風(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)都還(huan)比較薄弱,無論是(shi)人員(yuan)配備、人員(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)專業能力(li),還(huan)是(shi)公(gong)(gong)司的(de)(de)(de)重視(shi)程度都還(huan)不夠,風(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)部(bu)門(men)(men)(men)(men)也要(yao)依賴內(nei)審部(bu)門(men)(men)(men)(men)通過現場(chang)審計(ji)來驗證、評價其風(feng)險(xian)(xian)評估(gu)、風(feng)險(xian)(xian)分(fen)析的(de)(de)(de)合理(li)(li)性、有效(xiao)性。因(yin)此,對(dui)于(yu)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)部(bu)門(men)(men)(men)(men)提出的(de)(de)(de)審計(ji)要(yao)求(qiu),內(nei)審部(bu)門(men)(men)(men)(men)在條件允許的(de)(de)(de)情況下,應及時(shi)予以合理(li)(li)安(an)排。

3、與風(feng)險管理(li)部(bu)門進(jin)行(xing)信息共(gong)享(xiang)

毫無疑(yi)問,內(nei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)審(shen)(shen)計(ji)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)門(men)(men)(men)與(yu)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)管理部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)門(men)(men)(men)是(shi)掌(zhang)握公(gong)司(si)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)信息最(zui)全面、最(zui)準確的(de)(de)(de)(de)兩個部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)門(men)(men)(men),但(dan)掌(zhang)握的(de)(de)(de)(de)情(qing)況(kuang)卻又(you)有所區(qu)別(bie)。風險(xian)(xian)(xian)管理部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)門(men)(men)(men)是(shi)在(zai)既(ji)定的(de)(de)(de)(de)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)承受能力和風險(xian)(xian)(xian)應(ying)對(dui)策略的(de)(de)(de)(de)基礎上,注重(zhong)(zhong)對(dui)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)整(zheng)體(ti)情(qing)況(kuang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)識別(bie)、評價和分(fen)析,并對(dui)出現的(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)(zhong)大風險(xian)(xian)(xian)提(ti)出可(ke)行的(de)(de)(de)(de)解(jie)決方(fang)(fang)案(an)。因此(ci),無論(lun)是(shi)其(qi)(qi)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)評級報告還是(shi)其(qi)(qi)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)分(fen)析報告,著(zhu)眼點都是(shi)一個組織單位(全系統、分(fen)公(gong)司(si)、甚至中(zhong)心支公(gong)司(si))整(zheng)體(ti)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)是(shi)否在(zai)合理、可(ke)控的(de)(de)(de)(de)范圍內(nei)。而內(nei)審(shen)(shen)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)門(men)(men)(men)是(shi)通(tong)過必要的(de)(de)(de)(de)審(shen)(shen)計(ji)程序、有針對(dui)性(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)審(shen)(shen)計(ji)方(fang)(fang)法對(dui)公(gong)司(si)經營(ying)過程的(de)(de)(de)(de)記錄、結果等進行驗證、核對(dui)、測試,以了(le)解(jie)其(qi)(qi)合規性(xing)(xing)、合理性(xing)(xing)和發現其(qi)(qi)是(shi)否存在(zai)風險(xian)(xian)(xian),因此(ci),內(nei)審(shen)(shen)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)門(men)(men)(men)對(dui)于風險(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)了(le)解(jie)更具體(ti)、更有說服(fu)力。因此(ci),如(ru)果內(nei)審(shen)(shen)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)門(men)(men)(men)能與(yu)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)管理部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)門(men)(men)(men)進行信息共享,實(shi)現整(zheng)體(ti)與(yu)具體(ti)的(de)(de)(de)(de)結合,則對(dui)于提(ti)高風險(xian)(xian)(xian)管理的(de)(de)(de)(de)水平和風險(xian)(xian)(xian)信息的(de)(de)(de)(de)有效性(xing)(xing)都具有重(zhong)(zhong)要意義。

4、利用自身優勢(shi),實現內(nei)部審計與風險(xian)管理(li)的有(you)機整合

篇4

[關鍵(jian)詞]風險管(guan)理　施工承包　WBS　RBS

[中圖分(fen)類(lei)號]Tu7

[文獻標識碼]A

[文章編號]1009－5539(2010)03－0039－05

緒　論

項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)風險(xian)(xian)就是項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)生命期(qi)中的風險(xian)(xian)，即可能(neng)導致項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)損失的不(bu)確(que)(que)定(ding)(ding)性。而項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)風險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理就是應用項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)管(guan)(guan)理的成(cheng)熟理論和方(fang)(fang)法(fa)(fa)對(dui)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)風險(xian)(xian)進行預測、分(fen)析(xi)變因、減(jian)少不(bu)確(que)(que)定(ding)(ding)性、化解、控(kong)制(zhi)和處理風險(xian)(xian)。也就是說，項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)風險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理是指項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)管(guan)(guan)理人員對(dui)可能(neng)致損失的項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)不(bu)確(que)(que)定(ding)(ding)性進行預測、預算、識別、分(fen)析(xi)和有(you)效地處置以控(kong)制(zhi)成(cheng)本，為(wei)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)的順利完(wan)成(cheng)提供(gong)最大安全保障的科學管(guan)(guan)理方(fang)(fang)法(fa)(fa)。

一(yi)、項目施(shi)工階段風險管理

(一)項目施工階段風(feng)險管理要點

1.項目(mu)施工階段(duan)風險管理計劃

企業管(guan)(guan)理(li)層和項目(mu)(mu)經理(li)部必須(xu)在項目(mu)(mu)管(guan)(guan)理(li)策劃時(shi)，對(dui)項目(mu)(mu)風險管(guan)(guan)理(li)進行(xing)策劃，制訂風險管(guan)(guan)理(li)計劃，以(yi)決定如何進行(xing)項目(mu)(mu)風險管(guan)(guan)理(li)。

風(feng)險管(guan)理計劃制訂的依據應包括(kuo)：(1)項目(mu)范圍說明；(2)投標文件與(yu)工程(cheng)合同；(3)項目(mu)工作結(jie)構分解；(4)項目(mu)進度安排；(5)項目(mu)管(guan)理策劃的其他(ta)結(jie)果；(6)企業風(feng)險管(guan)理程(cheng)序和有關規定(ding)；(7)其他(ta)各種信息和歷(li)史資料(liao)。

風險(xian)(xian)管理計(ji)劃的(de)內容應包括：(1)風險(xian)(xian)管理目(mu)標；(2)風險(xian)(xian)管理范圍；(3)可使用的(de)風險(xian)(xian)管理方法、工具以及數據來源；(4)風險(xian)(xian)分類(lei)和(he)風險(xian)(xian)排序要求；(5)風險(xian)(xian)跟蹤的(de)要求；(6)風險(xian)(xian)管理的(de)職責與(yu)權限(xian)；(7)必需的(de)資源和(he)費用預(yu)算。

通常，風(feng)險(xian)分類和風(feng)險(xian)排序的方(fang)法、標準等(deng)，企業在風(feng)險(xian)管理程(cheng)序中都有詳(xiang)細規定(ding)，但針對具體(ti)的項目(mu)，在策劃(hua)時還應(ying)結合工程(cheng)項目(mu)實際，因地制宜。施(shi)工過程(cheng)中，項目(mu)經(jing)理部(bu)應(ying)根(gen)據項目(mu)風(feng)險(xian)管理計劃(hua)，制訂項目(mu)風(feng)險(xian)管理實施(shi)計劃(hua)，配置相關資源(yuan)，落實人員職責，確保風(feng)險(xian)管理活動有效進行。

2.項目施工階段風(feng)(feng)險(xian)識別與風(feng)(feng)險(xian)分析

施工(gong)過程中，項(xiang)目經理部(bu)必須隨施工(gong)進度不斷進行項(xiang)目風(feng)險識別和風(feng)險分析(xi)。

項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)經理(li)部應(ying)對可能帶來風(feng)險的(de)以(yi)下方(fang)面進行風(feng)險識別：(1)工程本(ben)身(shen)的(de)條(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)件；(2)自(zi)然與(yu)社(she)會條(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)件；(3)市場情(qing)況；(4)業主以(yi)及(ji)其(qi)他相關方(fang)：(5)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)合(he)(he)同與(yu)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)設計；(6)企業管理(li)層以(yi)及(ji)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)經理(li)部本(ben)身(shen)；(7)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)變更(包括合(he)(he)同條(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)件、項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)設計等)。

風(feng)險識別可采取以下方(fang)法：(1)文件審查；(2)信(xin)息收集技(ji)術，如(ru)：會議、問卷調(diao)查、訪談、專(zhuan)家咨詢等。

項目經理部必須將風險識(shi)別的結果予以記錄(lu)并形成風險清單(dan)然后對所有記錄(lu)的風險進行分析，并形成項目風險分析報(bao)告(gao)。

項(xiang)目(mu)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)分析(xi)的主要內容應(ying)(ying)包括：(1)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)發生的概率，可以根據已有信息和(he)類(lei)似項(xiang)目(mu)信息采用主觀測驗法、專家估(gu)計(ji)法或(huo)會議評審法進行(xing)(xing)認定(ding)；(2)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)損(sun)失(shi)量(liang)的估(gu)計(ji)，應(ying)(ying)先(xian)進行(xing)(xing)定(ding)性分析(xi)，只要可能就應(ying)(ying)進行(xing)(xing)定(ding)量(liang)分析(xi)；(3)確(que)定(ding)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)等級(ji)，應(ying)(ying)根據企業確(que)定(ding)的風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)等級(ji)劃分標準，根據風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)損(sun)失(shi)量(liang)的估(gu)計(ji)進行(xing)(xing)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)分級(ji)，確(que)定(ding)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)等級(ji)。

3.風(feng)險(xian)應(ying)對與風(feng)險(xian)監控

項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)經(jing)理(li)(li)部(bu)必(bi)須根(gen)據風險(xian)等級和活動順(shun)序(xu)進(jin)行風險(xian)排序(xu)，并根(gen)據排序(xu)制訂應(ying)(ying)對策略和應(ying)(ying)對措施(shi)(shi)，為(wei)(wei)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)目(mu)標實(shi)(shi)現增(zeng)加機(ji)會(hui)、減少(shao)失敗威(wei)脅。常用消除(chu)風險(xian)或(huo)(huo)威(wei)脅的(de)應(ying)(ying)對策略有(you)：(1)風險(xian)回避(bi)；(2)風險(xian)轉移；(3)風險(xian)減輕。常用應(ying)(ying)對積(ji)極(ji)風險(xian)或(huo)(huo)機(ji)會(hui)的(de)策略有(you)：(1)為(wei)(wei)確保機(ji)會(hui)的(de)實(shi)(shi)現，消除(chu)與機(ji)會(hui)實(shi)(shi)現相(xiang)關的(de)不確定性；(2)將積(ji)極(ji)風險(xian)的(de)責任(ren)分配給最能為(wei)(wei)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)經(jing)理(li)(li)部(bu)獲取利益機(ji)會(hui)的(de)第(di)三方；(3)針對積(ji)極(ji)風險(xian)或(huo)(huo)機(ji)會(hui)的(de)驅(qu)動因(yin)素，采取措施(shi)(shi)，提高機(ji)會(hui)發生(sheng)的(de)概率(lv)。項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)經(jing)理(li)(li)部(bu)必(bi)須根(gen)據應(ying)(ying)對策略制訂相(xiang)應(ying)(ying)的(de)應(ying)(ying)對措施(shi)(shi)形(xing)成文件，同時應(ying)(ying)避(bi)免產生(sheng)新的(de)消極(ji)風險(xian)。必(bi)要(yao)時應(ying)(ying)制訂應(ying)(ying)急計(ji)劃(hua)。施(shi)(shi)工(gong)過(guo)程中，項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)經(jing)理(li)(li)部(bu)必(bi)須及時收集和分析與項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)風險(xian)有(you)關的(de)各種信息，對風險(xian)應(ying)(ying)對措施(shi)(shi)的(de)實(shi)(shi)施(shi)(shi)效果進(jin)行監(jian)控和反饋(kui)，必(bi)要(yao)時制訂糾正和預防措施(shi)(shi)。

(二(er))項(xiang)目收(shou)尾階段(duan)的風險管理

項目收尾(wei)階(jie)段相(xiang)比(bi)其他階(jie)段風險存在(zai)(zai)的可(ke)能(neng)性要(yao)小一點(dian)，但(dan)并不能(neng)忽視。許多企業(ye)重投標、重合(he)(he)同、重施工(gong)(gong)、輕收尾(wei)。其實在(zai)(zai)收尾(wei)階(jie)段并非沒有風險。承包商在(zai)(zai)工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)完工(gong)(gong)或竣工(gong)(gong)時(shi)(shi)必須及時(shi)(shi)辦(ban)理(li)相(xiang)關備(bei)案手續，得(de)到業(ye)主(zhu)確認工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)完工(gong)(gong)或竣工(gong)(gong)的文件，否則(ze)(ze)承包商無法證明(ming)已經按(an)照(zhao)合(he)(he)同約(yue)定(ding)履行了工(gong)(gong)期承諾。另外(wai)，還要(yao)按(an)照(zhao)合(he)(he)約(yue)條件在(zai)(zai)具(ju)備(bei)辦(ban)理(li)工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)結算條件時(shi)(shi)及時(shi)(shi)將結算報送業(ye)主(zhu)或相(xiang)關機構，嚴(yan)格遵(zun)守時(shi)(shi)效要(yao)求，否則(ze)(ze)，可(ke)能(neng)會引(yin)起(qi)不必要(yao)的麻煩(fan)。

二、案例分析

南航綜合樓(lou)(lou)工(gong)程總建筑(zhu)面(mian)積(ji)33766.6m2，檐高44.95m；該工(gong)程分(fen)為主(zhu)(zhu)樓(lou)(lou)、裙樓(lou)(lou)2部分(fen)，地下(xia)部分(fen)設(she)有一(yi)層(ceng)(ceng)地下(xia)室，主(zhu)(zhu)要功(gong)能(neng)是車(che)庫(ku)、設(she)備用房。主(zhu)(zhu)樓(lou)(lou)地上主(zhu)(zhu)體12層(ceng)(ceng)，建筑(zhu)高度(du)44.95m；裙樓(lou)(lou)地上主(zhu)(zhu)體5層(ceng)(ceng)，建筑(zhu)高度(du)25.05m。主(zhu)(zhu)裙樓(lou)(lou)相接處設(she)有沉(chen)降縫，結構型(xing)式為現澆框架(jia)一(yi)剪力墻結構。

(一)本工程施工階段風險管(guan)理的目標

(1)進(jin)度控(kong)(kong)(kong)制目(mu)(mu)標(biao)：工(gong)程(cheng)進(jin)度按(an)合(he)同要求完成；(2)質量控(kong)(kong)(kong)制目(mu)(mu)標(biao)：合(he)格工(gong)程(cheng)，外觀要求優良；確保(bao)一次驗收合(he)格，材料損耗(hao)率(lv)控(kong)(kong)(kong)制在2％以內；(3)成本(ben)控(kong)(kong)(kong)制目(mu)(mu)標(biao)：成本(ben)不超過(guo)公司(si)測算(suan)的制造成本(ben)；(4)HSE管理目(mu)(mu)標(biao)：達到(dao)五(wu)無(wu)目(mu)(mu)標(biao)，即(ji)“無(wu)死亡事(shi)故，無(wu)重大(da)傷(shang)人事(shi)故，無(wu)重大(da)機械事(shi)故，無(wu)火災，無(wu)中毒事(shi)故”。

(二)南航綜合樓項目施工階段風險(xian)管理(li)組(zu)織(zhi)(WBs)

(三)南航綜(zong)合樓項目的(de)風(feng)險分解結構根據當地的(de)建筑市場環境，結合本工程(cheng)的(de)具體情況及以往工程(cheng)的(de)經驗，該工程(cheng)的(de)風(feng)險因素(su)分解如(ru)表3－1。

(四)南航(hang)綜合樓項目施工階段風(feng)險分(fen)析

將本工程(cheng)中(zhong)工作(zuo)結(jie)構分(fen)解(jie)與風(feng)險因素分(fen)解(jie)結(jie)合起來(lai)，對每項(xiang)工作(zuo)的(de)(de)四個目標的(de)(de)風(feng)險進行量化計算(suan)，并制定出(chu)相應(ying)的(de)(de)應(ying)對措施，其(qi)中(zhong)每次工作(zuo)的(de)(de)風(feng)險概率則一(yi)般采用專(zhuan)家(jia)法來(lai)定出(chu)，具(ju)體結(jie)果詳見表3－2

(五)南航綜合樓項目收尾階段風險因素控制(zhi)

項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)收尾階段(duan)是鞏固、擴大已有經(jing)營成果的重要時(shi)期(qi)，項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)經(jing)理部在本項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)中嚴格貫徹(che)“施(shi)(shi)工(gong)前(qian)為(wei)用戶(hu)(hu)(hu)著想，施(shi)(shi)工(gong)中為(wei)用戶(hu)(hu)(hu)負(fu)責，竣(jun)工(gong)后讓用戶(hu)(hu)(hu)滿意”，及采(cai)用“四個核定(ding)”(核定(ding)任務(wu)、核定(ding)人(ren)員(yuan)、核定(ding)時(shi)間(jian)(jian)、核定(ding)工(gong)資及費用)和(he)回(hui)訪(fang)保修(xiu)，為(wei)此，項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)經(jing)理部提前(qian)對竣(jun)工(gong)及售后服(fu)務(wu)期(qi)間(jian)(jian)可(ke)能出(chu)現的風(feng)險因素進(jin)行識(shi)別、分析，并(bing)制定(ding)相應措施(shi)(shi)，使售后服(fu)務(wu)期(qi)間(jian)(jian)的風(feng)險降至最小。

對于風(feng)(feng)險(xian)的(de)識(shi)別可(ke)以根(gen)據以往的(de)經驗及本(ben)(ben)工程(cheng)的(de)具體情況，也可(ke)通過顧(gu)客滿(man)意情況調查(cha)表(biao)來識(shi)別分析(xi)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)。本(ben)(ben)工程(cheng)收尾(wei)階(jie)段風(feng)(feng)險(xian)因(yin)素識(shi)別采(cai)用(yong)核查(cha)表(biao)法，詳見表(biao)3－3。

三、結　論

篇5

工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)財(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)分類(lei)。關于(yu)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)財(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)，大(da)(da)致(zhi)可以(yi)(yi)包括投(tou)(tou)標(biao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)、合同(tong)(tong)(tong)簽訂(ding)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)、資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)短缺風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)、資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)籌(chou)(chou)集(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)、資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)回(hui)收的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)等幾個(ge)(ge)方面。投(tou)(tou)標(biao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)，每(mei)一(yi)(yi)個(ge)(ge)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)項目(mu)(mu)都會(hui)(hui)(hui)以(yi)(yi)招標(biao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)方式(shi)來(lai)確(que)(que)定施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)，這樣有利(li)于(yu)實現(xian)公(gong)平、公(gong)正、公(gong)開的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)原則(ze)。同(tong)(tong)(tong)時(shi)，這也是(shi)考驗企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)領(ling)導者的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)智慧和(he)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)本(ben)身綜合實力的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)時(shi)候，一(yi)(yi)個(ge)(ge)好的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)項目(mu)(mu)，往往會(hui)(hui)(hui)有多(duo)家建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)進(jin)(jin)行(xing)競標(biao)，需(xu)要(yao)建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)管理(li)層準(zhun)確(que)(que)核算(suan)(suan)投(tou)(tou)標(biao)成(cheng)本(ben)與盈利(li)空間，在(zai)競標(biao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)時(shi)候進(jin)(jin)行(xing)準(zhun)確(que)(que)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)估計(ji)，避免投(tou)(tou)標(biao)成(cheng)本(ben)過大(da)(da)，有損(sun)(sun)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)經濟(ji)效益。合同(tong)(tong)(tong)簽訂(ding)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)，一(yi)(yi)個(ge)(ge)大(da)(da)型的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)項目(mu)(mu)耗費大(da)(da)量的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)人力物力資(zi)(zi)源。同(tong)(tong)(tong)時(shi)，工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)項目(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)周期(qi)比(bi)較(jiao)長(chang)，在(zai)合同(tong)(tong)(tong)簽訂(ding)初期(qi)，只是(shi)以(yi)(yi)當(dang)(dang)下的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)材(cai)料價格進(jin)(jin)行(xing)成(cheng)本(ben)估算(suan)(suan)，但市(shi)場是(shi)變動(dong)(dong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)，材(cai)料價格的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)浮動(dong)(dong)一(yi)(yi)般比(bi)較(jiao)大(da)(da)，可能(neng)會(hui)(hui)(hui)出現(xian)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)期(qi)間材(cai)料價格飛(fei)漲的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)情況，這對建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)來(lai)說(shuo)，是(shi)一(yi)(yi)個(ge)(ge)致(zhi)命的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)打擊。資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)短缺風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)，工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)項目(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)全過程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)都需(xu)要(yao)大(da)(da)量的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)支持。但一(yi)(yi)個(ge)(ge)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)如果是(shi)多(duo)個(ge)(ge)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)項目(mu)(mu)同(tong)(tong)(tong)時(shi)進(jin)(jin)行(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)話，難(nan)免會(hui)(hui)(hui)出現(xian)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)鏈斷裂的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)情況，一(yi)(yi)旦出現(xian)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)周轉不(bu)(bu)靈，將很(hen)可能(neng)導致(zhi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)項目(mu)(mu)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)中斷，讓(rang)建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)蒙受巨大(da)(da)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)經濟(ji)損(sun)(sun)失。資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)籌(chou)(chou)集(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)，很(hen)多(duo)時(shi)候，建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)流動(dong)(dong)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)都不(bu)(bu)足以(yi)(yi)支撐工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)項目(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)運行(xing)，企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)籌(chou)(chou)集(ji)(ji)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)方式(shi)主要(yao)是(shi)通(tong)過銀行(xing)信貸(dai)(dai)渠道，利(li)用房(fang)產、土地等不(bu)(bu)動(dong)(dong)產辦(ban)理(li)了(le)數額可觀的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)銀行(xing)抵押貸(dai)(dai)款(kuan)(kuan)，雖然能(neng)及時(shi)緩解資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)周轉不(bu)(bu)靈的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)問題(ti)，但財(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)杠桿會(hui)(hui)(hui)增(zeng)加企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)財(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)。當(dang)(dang)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)項目(mu)(mu)利(li)潤率(lv)(lv)小(xiao)于(yu)銀行(xing)貸(dai)(dai)款(kuan)(kuan)利(li)率(lv)(lv)時(shi)或(huo)利(li)率(lv)(lv)提高時(shi)，企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)面臨的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)財(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)將提高。資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)回(hui)收的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)，這是(shi)當(dang)(dang)下企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)面臨的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)一(yi)(yi)個(ge)(ge)比(bi)較(jiao)大(da)(da)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)挑戰，很(hen)多(duo)業(ye)(ye)主在(zai)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)項目(mu)(mu)完(wan)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)后，以(yi)(yi)各種理(li)由拒絕履(lv)行(xing)合同(tong)(tong)(tong)義務(wu)(wu)拖欠尾款(kuan)(kuan)，使(shi)得建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)回(hui)籠往往需(xu)要(yao)很(hen)長(chang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)時(shi)間。這樣一(yi)(yi)來(lai)，企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)在(zai)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)項目(mu)(mu)中投(tou)(tou)入了(le)大(da)(da)量的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)，業(ye)(ye)主的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)款(kuan)(kuan)一(yi)(yi)旦不(bu)(bu)能(neng)即時(shi)到賬，將會(hui)(hui)(hui)嚴重(zhong)影響建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)接下來(lai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)正常運作。

二、企業(ye)財務風險預警(jing)要素、程序和方法(fa)

（一）財務風險(xian)預(yu)警要素(su)

建(jian)筑企業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)財(cai)(cai)務風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)是(shi)(shi)(shi)存在(zai)很多不可預(yu)(yu)(yu)知性的(de)(de)(de)，主(zhu)要是(shi)(shi)(shi)因為(wei)市場的(de)(de)(de)變化比(bi)較(jiao)快(kuai)。但只要通過專業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)財(cai)(cai)務風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)分析，準確把握影(ying)響建(jian)筑企業(ye)財(cai)(cai)務風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)的(de)(de)(de)要素，就能在(zai)很大(da)程度上降低財(cai)(cai)務風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)，緩解工程建(jian)筑企業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)財(cai)(cai)務危機，從而有利于企業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)可持續性發展。具體(ti)來說(shuo)，財(cai)(cai)務風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)預(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)包(bao)括預(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)征(zheng)兆(zhao)、預(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)指(zhi)(zhi)標、預(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)信號(hao)、預(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)度和預(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)源等幾個(ge)方面。預(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)征(zheng)兆(zhao)，就是(shi)(shi)(shi)對預(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)系統的(de)(de)(de)各(ge)項指(zhi)(zhi)標進(jin)行檢(jian)(jian)測(ce)，一旦(dan)出現異(yi)常情況，將快(kuai)速(su)反饋給(gei)檢(jian)(jian)測(ce)人(ren)員(yuan)，方便檢(jian)(jian)測(ce)人(ren)員(yuan)采取下一步行動(dong)。預(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)指(zhi)(zhi)標則是(shi)(shi)(shi)建(jian)筑企業(ye)在(zai)構建(jian)財(cai)(cai)務風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)預(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)系統的(de)(de)(de)時候(hou)，用(yong)來反映財(cai)(cai)務預(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)內(nei)容的(de)(de)(de)指(zhi)(zhi)標，包(bao)括償債能力(li)、營運(yun)能力(li)、盈利能力(li)比(bi)率(lv)等內(nei)容。預(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)信號(hao)就是(shi)(shi)(shi)財(cai)(cai)務風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)預(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)系統在(zai)監(jian)測(ce)各(ge)項預(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)指(zhi)(zhi)標的(de)(de)(de)時候(hou)傳(chuan)輸的(de)(de)(de)各(ge)項數據(ju)，監(jian)測(ce)人(ren)員(yuan)正是(shi)(shi)(shi)根據(ju)這些(xie)預(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)信號(hao)進(jin)行財(cai)(cai)務風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)的(de)(de)(de)判斷。預(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)源則是(shi)(shi)(shi)最開始發生預(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)情況的(de)(de)(de)地方，預(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)監(jian)測(ce)人(ren)員(yuan)需要在(zai)接收到預(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)信號(hao)后，盡(jin)快(kuai)找出預(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)源，進(jin)一步制(zhi)定并實施預(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)方案。

（二(er)）財(cai)務(wu)風險(xian)預警的程序(xu)

工程建(jian)筑企業(ye)財(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)預(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)程序主(zhu)要包括(kuo)選取(qu)(qu)財(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)指標(biao)、設(she)定(ding)(ding)財(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)變(bian)(bian)量、確定(ding)(ding)預(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)區間(jian)以及(ji)評(ping)估財(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)預(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)等四個部分(fen)。選取(qu)(qu)財(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)指標(biao)，這屬(shu)于(yu)財(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)預(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)前期準備(bei)工作，研(yan)究人(ren)員(yuan)可以需要從大量的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)財(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)指標(biao)中(zhong)選取(qu)(qu)能夠符(fu)合研(yan)究目標(biao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)財(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)指標(biao)進(jin)行(xing)分(fen)析(xi)(xi)研(yan)究。設(she)定(ding)(ding)財(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)變(bian)(bian)量，在財(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)指標(biao)選擇完成(cheng)(cheng)后，需要設(she)置不(bu)同的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)財(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)變(bian)(bian)量，方(fang)便監測(ce)(ce)員(yuan)監測(ce)(ce)各項財(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)指標(biao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)變(bian)(bian)化(hua)情況，并采(cai)用(yong)專業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)分(fen)析(xi)(xi)方(fang)法(fa)對(dui)所監測(ce)(ce)到的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)異常情況進(jin)行(xing)分(fen)析(xi)(xi)，找出預(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)源(yuan)，在最短的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)時間(jian)內(nei)制定(ding)(ding)出預(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)計劃。確定(ding)(ding)預(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)區間(jian)，這是用(yong)數學(xue)(xue)方(fang)法(fa)對(dui)財(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)預(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)進(jin)行(xing)分(fen)析(xi)(xi)時得(de)到的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)預(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)階(jie)段(duan)性成(cheng)(cheng)果，縮小(xiao)了預(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)范(fan)圍，當然，這需要分(fen)析(xi)(xi)人(ren)員(yuan)具備(bei)較高(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)專業(ye)素養以及(ji)豐富的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)財(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)分(fen)析(xi)(xi)預(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)經驗。評(ping)估財(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)預(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)，主(zhu)要是用(yong)數理(li)模型結(jie)合財(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)變(bian)(bian)量指標(biao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)變(bian)(bian)化(hua)分(fen)析(xi)(xi)企業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)財(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)狀況，得(de)出科(ke)學(xue)(xue)合理(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)結(jie)論(lun)，方(fang)便下一步(bu)制定(ding)(ding)財(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)預(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)方(fang)案。

（三）財務風險(xian)預警(jing)的一般方法

財(cai)務(wu)風險(xian)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)方(fang)法(fa)(fa)(fa)一(yi)般包括(kuo)定(ding)性(xing)(xing)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)和(he)定(ding)量預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)兩(liang)種(zhong)。所(suo)謂定(ding)性(xing)(xing)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)，就是(shi)指(zhi)對(dui)建(jian)筑(zhu)企業(ye)(ye)進(jin)行(xing)(xing)抽象的(de)(de)(de)、概括(kuo)的(de)(de)(de)、感性(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)評估來(lai)(lai)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)測，這是(shi)對(dui)建(jian)筑(zhu)企業(ye)(ye)財(cai)務(wu)風險(xian)一(yi)個整體(ti)性(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)，不需(xu)要(yao)具(ju)體(ti)的(de)(de)(de)數據支持(chi)。定(ding)性(xing)(xing)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)主(zhu)要(yao)包括(kuo)表(biao)征(zheng)(zheng)觀(guan)(guan)察法(fa)(fa)(fa)、流程(cheng)圖分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)法(fa)(fa)(fa)兩(liang)種(zhong)形式。表(biao)征(zheng)(zheng)觀(guan)(guan)察法(fa)(fa)(fa)，是(shi)指(zhi)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)人員通(tong)過對(dui)建(jian)筑(zhu)企業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)整體(ti)財(cai)務(wu)狀況(kuang)以及財(cai)務(wu)風險(xian)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)系統進(jin)行(xing)(xing)觀(guan)(guan)察，通(tong)過觀(guan)(guan)察中(zhong)得(de)到(dao)的(de)(de)(de)異(yi)常情況(kuang)結合(he)自身的(de)(de)(de)專業(ye)(ye)知識以及工作經驗進(jin)行(xing)(xing)風險(xian)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)，得(de)出比較(jiao)(jiao)客觀(guan)(guan)的(de)(de)(de)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)報(bao)告(gao)。流流程(cheng)圖分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)是(shi)選取企業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)每(mei)一(yi)個財(cai)務(wu)流程(cheng)的(de)(de)(de)關鍵點進(jin)行(xing)(xing)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)，相對(dui)表(biao)征(zheng)(zheng)觀(guan)(guan)察法(fa)(fa)(fa)來(lai)(lai)說(shuo)較(jiao)(jiao)復(fu)雜，但(dan)同時(shi)具(ju)有更高(gao)的(de)(de)(de)準(zhun)(zhun)確(que)性(xing)(xing)，其(qi)能(neng)快速有效找出每(mei)一(yi)個財(cai)務(wu)流程(cheng)中(zhong)存在的(de)(de)(de)風險(xian)要(yao)素(su)，實時(shi)監測各項預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)指(zhi)標的(de)(de)(de)變(bian)化情況(kuang)。定(ding)量預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)方(fang)法(fa)(fa)(fa)，其(qi)要(yao)以建(jian)筑(zhu)企業(ye)(ye)財(cai)務(wu)報(bao)表(biao)和(he)數據為基礎結合(he)數學模型進(jin)行(xing)(xing)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)，根據得(de)到(dao)的(de)(de)(de)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)報(bao)告(gao)判斷企業(ye)(ye)當下的(de)(de)(de)財(cai)務(wu)風險(xian)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)狀況(kuang)，相對(dui)于定(ding)性(xing)(xing)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)方(fang)法(fa)(fa)(fa)來(lai)(lai)說(shuo)更加準(zhun)(zhun)確(que)，但(dan)需(xu)要(yao)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)人員有較(jiao)(jiao)高(gao)的(de)(de)(de)專業(ye)(ye)素(su)養，同時(shi)耗(hao)費的(de)(de)(de)時(shi)間也比較(jiao)(jiao)長。

三、建筑企業財務風(feng)險預警體系(xi)構建

（一）建立收集風險信息(xi)系(xi)統(tong)

并設計財(cai)(cai)務(wu)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)監(jian)(jian)測指標(biao)。企業(ye)財(cai)(cai)務(wu)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)系統(tong)的(de)(de)預警(jing)體系構建，最主(zhu)要的(de)(de)首(shou)先(xian)要廣(guang)泛地(di)、持(chi)續(xu)不斷地(di)收集財(cai)(cai)務(wu)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)相關內、外部信(xin)(xin)(xin)息，建立(li)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)信(xin)(xin)(xin)息系統(tong)，其(qi)次是要確(que)定合(he)理的(de)(de)財(cai)(cai)務(wu)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)監(jian)(jian)測指標(biao)，通過對這些指標(biao)的(de)(de)監(jian)(jian)測，及時發出預警(jing)信(xin)(xin)(xin)息，找出影響企業(ye)財(cai)(cai)務(wu)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)因素(su)，從而及時制定有(you)效的(de)(de)解(jie)決方案，降低企業(ye)的(de)(de)財(cai)(cai)務(wu)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。目前，選取最多的(de)(de)財(cai)(cai)務(wu)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)檢測指標(biao)主(zhu)要有(you)企業(ye)的(de)(de)資(zi)產負債率、流動比率、速動比率、利(li)息保障倍數(shu)、權益凈利(li)率、投(tou)資(zi)項目報酬率等。

（二(er)）制(zhi)定(ding)風險預(yu)警(jing)時應采取(qu)風險控制(zhi)措(cuo)施

進(jin)行(xing)全面風險管理(li)(li)。跟蹤監測(ce)關鍵指標成因的變化，一旦出現預警，即實施(shi)財務(wu)風險控(kong)制措(cuo)施(shi)。企業(ye)全體成員(yuan)應高度重(zhong)視，將措(cuo)施(shi)落(luo)實到組織，明確分工和(he)責任，全員(yuan)行(xing)動進(jin)行(xing)降低(di)財務(wu)風險管理(li)(li)。為確保工作的效(xiao)果，落(luo)實到位(wei)，要對財務(wu)風險管理(li)(li)解決方案的實施(shi)進(jin)行(xing)持續監控(kong)改(gai)進(jin)，并與績(ji)效(xiao)考核聯系起來。

（三）完善建筑企業(ye)風險(xian)管理制度與企業(ye)文化

只有(you)(you)(you)不斷優化企(qi)業(ye)(ye)風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)制度、企(qi)業(ye)(ye)文(wen)化，才能(neng)快速(su)有(you)(you)(you)效地對建(jian)筑企(qi)業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)財務(wu)風(feng)險(xian)進行評估，方便企(qi)業(ye)(ye)制定(ding)(ding)科學合理(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)財務(wu)風(feng)險(xian)預(yu)警方案(an)，從而有(you)(you)(you)效降低工程建(jian)筑企(qi)業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)財務(wu)風(feng)險(xian)，保(bao)障建(jian)筑企(qi)業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)資金流(liu)通。建(jian)筑企(qi)業(ye)(ye)在(zai)構(gou)建(jian)財務(wu)風(feng)險(xian)預(yu)警體系的(de)(de)時(shi)候，一定(ding)(ding)要(yao)有(you)(you)(you)明確的(de)(de)風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)目標(biao)，選取合理(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)財務(wu)風(feng)險(xian)預(yu)警指(zhi)標(biao)，樹立(li)科學的(de)(de)風(feng)險(xian)應對策略觀(guan)，對出現的(de)(de)突發(fa)狀況快速(su)有(you)(you)(you)效的(de)(de)分析，在(zai)最短時(shi)間內制定(ding)(ding)出應急預(yu)案(an)，避免企(qi)業(ye)(ye)蒙受損失。

四、結語

篇6

一、控制自我評估的相關(guan)理論

1、定義。控(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)自(zi)(zi)我(wo)(wo)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)（CSA，ControlSelf-Assessment）也被(bei)稱(cheng)為管(guan)(guan)理(li)自(zi)(zi)我(wo)(wo)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)、控(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)和(he)風險(xian)(xian)自(zi)(zi)我(wo)(wo)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)、經(jing)營(ying)活動自(zi)(zi)我(wo)(wo)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)以(yi)及(ji)(ji)控(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)/風險(xian)(xian)自(zi)(zi)我(wo)(wo)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)，國(guo)際內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)審(shen)計(ji)(ji)(ji)師協(xie)會(hui)（I-IA）認為，控(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)自(zi)(zi)我(wo)(wo)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)是檢查和(he)評(ping)(ping)(ping)價內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)控(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)效(xiao)率(lv)和(he)效(xiao)果的(de)(de)(de)(de)流程(cheng)(cheng)，其目(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)是為實現企(qi)業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)目(mu)標提(ti)供一定程(cheng)(cheng)序的(de)(de)(de)(de)合(he)理(li)保證。國(guo)際內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)審(shen)計(ji)(ji)(ji)師協(xie)會(hui)在(zai)1996年(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)研究報告中總結了CSA的(de)(de)(de)(de)三個基(ji)本(ben)特(te)征：關(guan)注業(ye)務(wu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)過程(cheng)(cheng)和(he)控(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)成效(xiao)、由(you)管(guan)(guan)理(li)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)門和(he)職(zhi)員共同進行、用(yong)(yong)結構化的(de)(de)(de)(de)方(fang)法(fa)(fa)(fa)開展自(zi)(zi)我(wo)(wo)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)。中國(guo)內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)審(shen)計(ji)(ji)(ji)協(xie)會(hui)2006年(nian)7月(yue)1日實施(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)《內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)審(shen)計(ji)(ji)(ji)具體(ti)(ti)(ti)準則第(di)21號(hao)(hao)———內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)審(shen)計(ji)(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)控(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)自(zi)(zi)我(wo)(wo)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)法(fa)(fa)(fa)》（以(yi)下簡稱(cheng)“具體(ti)(ti)(ti)準則第(di)21號(hao)(hao)”），將控(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)自(zi)(zi)我(wo)(wo)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)定義為：是指由(you)對(dui)(dui)內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)控(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)定與執(zhi)行負有責(ze)任的(de)(de)(de)(de)組(zu)(zu)織(zhi)相關(guan)管(guan)(guan)理(li)人員對(dui)(dui)內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)控(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)進行評(ping)(ping)(ping)價的(de)(de)(de)(de)過程(cheng)(cheng)。2、控(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)自(zi)(zi)我(wo)(wo)評(ping)(ping)(ping)價的(de)(de)(de)(de)內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)容和(he)方(fang)法(fa)(fa)(fa)。根據具體(ti)(ti)(ti)準則第(di)21號(hao)(hao)，內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)審(shen)計(ji)(ji)(ji)人員可以(yi)根據內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)控(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)審(shen)計(ji)(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)目(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)與范圍(wei)，確定控(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)自(zi)(zi)我(wo)(wo)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)容。控(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)自(zi)(zi)我(wo)(wo)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)包(bao)括以(yi)下內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)容：（1）確定組(zu)(zu)織(zhi)整體(ti)(ti)(ti)或職(zhi)能部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)門的(de)(de)(de)(de)目(mu)標，識別其主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)風險(xian)(xian)；（2）評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)組(zu)(zu)織(zhi)內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)控(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)適當性、合(he)法(fa)(fa)(fa)性及(ji)(ji)有效(xiao)性；（3）確認內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)控(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)重大缺(que)陷或存在(zai)嚴重風險(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)業(ye)務(wu)環(huan)節；（4）評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)組(zu)(zu)織(zhi)非正式的(de)(de)(de)(de)控(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)及(ji)(ji)其有效(xiao)性；（5）評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)組(zu)(zu)織(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)業(ye)務(wu)流程(cheng)(cheng)及(ji)(ji)其運(yun)作(zuo)效(xiao)率(lv)；（6）對(dui)(dui)控(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)自(zi)(zi)我(wo)(wo)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)中發現的(de)(de)(de)(de)問題(ti)(ti)提(ti)出改進建(jian)議。同時(shi)，準則中提(ti)到“對(dui)(dui)公司控(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)自(zi)(zi)我(wo)(wo)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)方(fang)法(fa)(fa)(fa)包(bao)括：專題(ti)(ti)討(tao)論會(hui)、問卷調查法(fa)(fa)(fa)和(he)管(guan)(guan)理(li)分(fen)析(xi)法(fa)(fa)(fa)”，這也是目(mu)前(qian)西方(fang)國(guo)家通過20多年(nian)實踐總結后普遍采用(yong)(yong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)三種基(ji)本(ben)形式。

二、控制自(zi)我評(ping)估與境外資產管理

根據業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)內(nei)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)研究，已(yi)(yi)經(jing)總結(jie)出CSA為(wei)(wei)內(nei)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)帶來5方(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)面(mian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)變革：（1）有(you)(you)(you)(you)效(xiao)進行(xing)(xing)軟控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)；（2）提升(sheng)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)環境(jing)(jing)(jing)；（3）盡快(kuai)找(zhao)到(dao)并(bing)解決(jue)(jue)(jue)問題；（4）預(yu)測并(bing)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)；（5）使內(nei)審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)更(geng)具效(xiao)率與效(xiao)果。因此(ci)筆者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)認(ren)為(wei)(wei)：CSA這5方(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)面(mian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)好處，結(jie)合(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)石油(you)(you)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)境(jing)(jing)(jing)外(wai)(wai)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)現狀，適合(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)推行(xing)(xing)應用于境(jing)(jing)(jing)外(wai)(wai)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)運營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)。本(ben)文(wen)將討(tao)論重(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)(dian)放在(zai)境(jing)(jing)(jing)外(wai)(wai)全(quan)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)子(zi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)、境(jing)(jing)(jing)外(wai)(wai)聯(lian)(lian)(lian)(lian)營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)/合(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)、境(jing)(jing)(jing)外(wai)(wai)油(you)(you)田(tian)非(fei)(fei)(fei)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)三種(zhong)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)或(huo)(huo)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)運營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)主(zhu)(zhu)體(ti)形(xing)式(shi)(shi)，先(xian)(xian)行(xing)(xing)闡述(shu)其管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)特點(dian)(dian)和對(dui)(dui)應采取的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)主(zhu)(zhu)要審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)形(xing)式(shi)(shi)，為(wei)(wei)接下(xia)來討(tao)論不同(tong)(tong)(tong)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)形(xing)式(shi)(shi)下(xia)需(xu)建立(li)不同(tong)(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)自(zi)(zi)我(wo)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)體(ti)系做好鋪墊。1、境(jing)(jing)(jing)外(wai)(wai)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)運營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)形(xing)式(shi)(shi)。（1）境(jing)(jing)(jing)外(wai)(wai)子(zi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)。境(jing)(jing)(jing)外(wai)(wai)子(zi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)，顧名思(si)義為(wei)(wei)境(jing)(jing)(jing)外(wai)(wai)注冊成(cheng)立(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)全(quan)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)子(zi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)，和境(jing)(jing)(jing)內(nei)子(zi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)一(yi)樣，擁(yong)有(you)(you)(you)(you)自(zi)(zi)己(ji)所有(you)(you)(you)(you)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)財(cai)產(chan)，自(zi)(zi)己(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)名稱、章程(cheng)和董事(shi)會(hui)，以自(zi)(zi)己(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)名義開(kai)展經(jing)營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)活動(dong)、從事(shi)各類民事(shi)活動(dong)，獨立(li)承擔公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)行(xing)(xing)為(wei)(wei)所帶來的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)一(yi)切后果和責任，涉及公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)利(li)(li)益的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)(zhong)大(da)決(jue)(jue)(jue)策(ce)(ce)或(huo)(huo)重(zhong)(zhong)大(da)人(ren)事(shi)安排，仍要由(you)母公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)決(jue)(jue)(jue)定(ding)。主(zhu)(zhu)要被(bei)(bei)實施的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)類型(xing)為(wei)(wei)內(nei)部(bu)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)、經(jing)濟責任審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)等(deng)，且審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)重(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)(dian)內(nei)容(rong)基本(ben)一(yi)致(zhi)。（2）境(jing)(jing)(jing)外(wai)(wai)聯(lian)(lian)(lian)(lian)營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)/合(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)。首先(xian)(xian)，聯(lian)(lian)(lian)(lian)營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)不同(tong)(tong)(tong)于合(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)。聯(lian)(lian)(lian)(lian)營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)是(shi)(shi)指投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)對(dui)(dui)其有(you)(you)(you)(you)重(zhong)(zhong)大(da)影響(xiang)，但(dan)不是(shi)(shi)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)子(zi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)或(huo)(huo)合(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)。當某一(yi)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)或(huo)(huo)個人(ren)擁(yong)有(you)(you)(you)(you)另一(yi)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)20%或(huo)(huo)以上至50%表(biao)決(jue)(jue)(jue)權(quan)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)本(ben)時(shi)，通常被(bei)(bei)認(ren)為(wei)(wei)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)對(dui)(dui)被(bei)(bei)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)具有(you)(you)(you)(you)重(zhong)(zhong)大(da)影響(xiang)，則該被(bei)(bei)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)可視(shi)為(wei)(wei)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)聯(lian)(lian)(lian)(lian)營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)。投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)對(dui)(dui)聯(lian)(lian)(lian)(lian)營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)只(zhi)具有(you)(you)(you)(you)重(zhong)(zhong)大(da)影響(xiang)，即對(dui)(dui)被(bei)(bei)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)經(jing)營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)決(jue)(jue)(jue)策(ce)(ce)和財(cai)務(wu)決(jue)(jue)(jue)策(ce)(ce)只(zhi)具有(you)(you)(you)(you)參與決(jue)(jue)(jue)策(ce)(ce)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)權(quan)利(li)(li)，而(er)不具有(you)(you)(you)(you)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)權(quan)；而(er)合(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)對(dui)(dui)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)經(jing)營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)決(jue)(jue)(jue)策(ce)(ce)和財(cai)務(wu)決(jue)(jue)(jue)策(ce)(ce)具有(you)(you)(you)(you)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)權(quan)，雖然這種(zhong)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)權(quan)是(shi)(shi)共同(tong)(tong)(tong)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)。其次(ci)，境(jing)(jing)(jing)外(wai)(wai)聯(lian)(lian)(lian)(lian)營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)/合(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)權(quan)利(li)(li)與投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)地位有(you)(you)(you)(you)密切關系，公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)章程(cheng)或(huo)(huo)伙伴協(xie)議中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)往(wang)往(wang)對(dui)(dui)審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)權(quan)利(li)(li)、范(fan)圍等(deng)有(you)(you)(you)(you)詳細規定(ding)，而(er)且目前(qian)合(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)伙伴往(wang)往(wang)也(ye)有(you)(you)(you)(you)其自(zi)(zi)身成(cheng)熟的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)內(nei)部(bu)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)及評(ping)(ping)價(jia)體(ti)系，在(zai)此(ci)不多贅述(shu)。（3）境(jing)(jing)(jing)外(wai)(wai)油(you)(you)田(tian)項(xiang)目非(fei)(fei)(fei)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)。國際油(you)(you)氣聯(lian)(lian)(lian)(lian)合(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)合(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)方(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)式(shi)(shi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，除了(le)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)設立(li)法(fa)人(ren)型(xing)合(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)（JV，JointVenture）作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)為(wei)(wei)聯(lian)(lian)(lian)(lian)合(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)負(fu)責油(you)(you)田(tian)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)外(wai)(wai)，更(geng)常見的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)是(shi)(shi)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)以簽署聯(lian)(lian)(lian)(lian)合(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)方(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)式(shi)(shi)，指定(ding)其中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)一(yi)方(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)擔任作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)（operator），負(fu)責油(you)(you)氣作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)日常工作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)，其他各方(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)為(wei)(wei)非(fei)(fei)(fei)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)（non-operator）。投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)各方(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)指定(ding)代表(biao)組(zu)成(cheng)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)委(wei)員會(hui)，決(jue)(jue)(jue)定(ding)油(you)(you)氣作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)(zhong)大(da)事(shi)項(xiang)，作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)在(zai)遵循油(you)(you)氣行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)慣(guan)例和相關法(fa)律的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)前(qian)提下(xia)，按照作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)委(wei)員會(hui)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)決(jue)(jue)(jue)定(ding)及指示開(kai)展作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)。目前(qian)針對(dui)(dui)這種(zhong)聯(lian)(lian)(lian)(lian)合(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)方(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)式(shi)(shi)，已(yi)(yi)采取的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)方(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)式(shi)(shi)是(shi)(shi)聯(lian)(lian)(lian)(lian)合(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)賬(zhang)簿審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)，對(dui)(dui)象(xiang)是(shi)(shi)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)，內(nei)容(rong)主(zhu)(zhu)要基于聯(lian)(lian)(lian)(lian)合(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)賬(zhang)簿本(ben)身。但(dan)考(kao)慮到(dao)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金額大(da)、盈利(li)(li)依賴程(cheng)度高，非(fei)(fei)(fei)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)在(zai)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)委(wei)員會(hui)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)被(bei)(bei)賦予(yu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)決(jue)(jue)(jue)策(ce)(ce)權(quan)力大(da)，有(you)(you)(you)(you)必要追加控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)自(zi)(zi)我(wo)評(ping)(ping)估，以對(dui)(dui)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)水平摸底。2、境(jing)(jing)(jing)外(wai)(wai)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)主(zhu)(zhu)要風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)及中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)方(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)角色參與控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)能力。業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)界已(yi)(yi)基本(ben)對(dui)(dui)石油(you)(you)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)境(jing)(jing)(jing)外(wai)(wai)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)分析(xi)形(xing)成(cheng)了(le)共識(shi)，主(zhu)(zhu)要包(bao)括(kuo)東道國政治風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、經(jing)濟風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、技術風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、法(fa)律風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，這些風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)主(zhu)(zhu)要來源(yuan)于組(zu)織(zhi)外(wai)(wai)部(bu)；但(dan)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)分析(xi)時(shi)，往(wang)往(wang)沒有(you)(you)(you)(you)結(jie)合(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)形(xing)式(shi)(shi)或(huo)(huo)境(jing)(jing)(jing)外(wai)(wai)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)實施主(zhu)(zhu)體(ti)形(xing)式(shi)(shi)，對(dui)(dui)應分析(xi)其管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)能力。同(tong)(tong)(tong)時(shi)筆者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)認(ren)為(wei)(wei)，組(zu)織(zhi)機構內(nei)部(bu)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)是(shi)(shi)否有(you)(you)(you)(you)效(xiao)，將對(dui)(dui)外(wai)(wai)部(bu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)產(chan)生正面(mian)或(huo)(huo)負(fu)面(mian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)效(xiao)果加倍放大(da)。不同(tong)(tong)(tong)境(jing)(jing)(jing)外(wai)(wai)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)主(zhu)(zhu)體(ti)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)方(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)方(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)對(dui)(dui)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)參與管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)程(cheng)度是(shi)(shi)有(you)(you)(you)(you)限(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)，三種(zhong)形(xing)式(shi)(shi)比(bi)較(jiao)下(xia)非(fei)(fei)(fei)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)者(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)能力最弱，境(jing)(jing)(jing)外(wai)(wai)全(quan)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)子(zi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)最強。

三、不(bu)同投(tou)資(zi)形式如何開展控制自(zi)我評估

對(dui)于(yu)(yu)從(cong)未開(kai)(kai)展(zhan)過控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)的(de)(de)公(gong)(gong)司(si)，建(jian)議(yi)基于(yu)(yu)成本(ben)、效(xiao)益(yi)原(yuan)則循序(xu)漸進地(di)(di)開(kai)(kai)展(zhan)，摸索(suo)經驗再舉(ju)一反三(san)。筆(bi)者根(gen)據一般大型企業(ye)(ye)現(xian)行的(de)(de)管(guan)(guan)理架構，建(jian)議(yi)如(ru)下步(bu)驟開(kai)(kai)展(zhan)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)及設計(ji)(ji)(ji)模式。首(shou)先，按層(ceng)(ceng)級區分(fen)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)部(bu)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)的(de)(de)范圍。原(yuan)因有(you)三(san)：一是單(dan)獨為管(guan)(guan)理層(ceng)(ceng)和(he)職能(neng)部(bu)門(men)開(kai)(kai)展(zhan)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制自我(wo)(wo)(wo)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)，能(neng)夠提(ti)高其(qi)重(zhong)視程度(du)，加強參(can)與感，并(bing)幫(bang)助(zhu)內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)審(shen)人員快速地(di)(di)了解(jie)公(gong)(gong)司(si)整(zheng)體(ti)(ti)內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)環境；二是不(bu)同(tong)(tong)地(di)(di)域海外投資主體(ti)(ti)面(mian)臨風險(xian)不(bu)同(tong)(tong)，經營(ying)目標(biao)不(bu)同(tong)(tong)，內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)體(ti)(ti)系(xi)也不(bu)完全相同(tong)(tong)，每個個體(ti)(ti)應具(ju)備單(dan)獨實(shi)施(shi)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制自我(wo)(wo)(wo)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)的(de)(de)能(neng)力，設計(ji)(ji)(ji)獨立的(de)(de)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)方(fang)案(an)，反而更(geng)有(you)利(li)于(yu)(yu)了解(jie)其(qi)真實(shi)的(de)(de)管(guan)(guan)理情況(kuang)；三(san)是考慮到聯合作業(ye)(ye)中非作業(ye)(ye)者的(de)(de)管(guan)(guan)理模式特點(dian)，其(qi)組織(zhi)(zhi)機構往(wang)往(wang)更(geng)“無(wu)形(xing)(xing)(xing)”，那么(me)關鍵(jian)人員的(de)(de)技術(shu)能(neng)力和(he)專(zhuan)業(ye)(ye)素質，尤(you)其(qi)是對(dui)于(yu)(yu)石油合同(tong)(tong)和(he)聯合作業(ye)(ye)協(xie)議(yi)的(de)(de)內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)容和(he)執行，往(wang)往(wang)是較“組織(zhi)(zhi)內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)流程”這種形(xing)(xing)(xing)式更(geng)重(zhong)要的(de)(de)，那么(me)，控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制自我(wo)(wo)(wo)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)的(de)(de)對(dui)象(xiang)在這里就不(bu)是組織(zhi)(zhi)，而可直(zhi)接(jie)設計(ji)(ji)(ji)為針對(dui)關鍵(jian)人員。層(ceng)(ceng)級展(zhan)示如(ru)下：其(qi)次，確(que)定了評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)層(ceng)(ceng)級后，確(que)定控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制自我(wo)(wo)(wo)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)的(de)(de)開(kai)(kai)展(zhan)順序(xu)。筆(bi)者在此傾(qing)向于(yu)(yu)同(tong)(tong)時開(kai)(kai)展(zhan)，開(kai)(kai)展(zhan)初步(bu)方(fang)案(an)為：最(zui)后，便是對(dui)所有(you)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制自我(wo)(wo)(wo)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)報(bao)告(gao)的(de)(de)匯總分(fen)析，并(bing)形(xing)(xing)(xing)成控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制自我(wo)(wo)(wo)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)報(bao)告(gao)。匯總分(fen)析過程中，由于(yu)(yu)三(san)個層(ceng)(ceng)次的(de)(de)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)均使用問(wen)卷調查的(de)(de)方(fang)式，調查中應對(dui)公(gong)(gong)司(si)關鍵(jian)風險(xian)點(dian)重(zhong)復出題，從(cong)不(bu)同(tong)(tong)層(ceng)(ceng)面(mian)了解(jie)各層(ceng)(ceng)管(guan)(guan)理者對(dui)該問(wen)題的(de)(de)認知程度(du)，如(ru)有(you)必要，也可以進一步(bu)組織(zhi)(zhi)專(zhuan)題討論，面(mian)對(dui)面(mian)溝通(tong)更(geng)有(you)助(zhu)于(yu)(yu)內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)審(shen)人員和(he)管(guan)(guan)理層(ceng)(ceng)的(de)(de)信息交換與交流。三(san)個層(ceng)(ceng)級各自形(xing)(xing)(xing)成獨立控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制自我(wo)(wo)(wo)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)報(bao)告(gao)，同(tong)(tong)時出具(ju)對(dui)公(gong)(gong)司(si)整(zheng)體(ti)(ti)內(nei)(nei)(nei)(nei)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)實(shi)施(shi)情況(kuang)的(de)(de)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)價報(bao)告(gao)，形(xing)(xing)(xing)成后報(bao)母(mu)公(gong)(gong)司(si)高管(guan)(guan)。

四、如何利用控制自我評估報(bao)告(gao)開(kai)展境外資產審計

內(nei)部(bu)(bu)審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)人(ren)員(yuan)(yuan)應(ying)根據高管(guan)(guan)對(dui)三個層級(ji)各自(zi)控制(zhi)(zhi)自(zi)我評估(gu)(gu)(gu)報(bao)(bao)告(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)意見及(ji)評估(gu)(gu)(gu)結果(guo)，從(cong)開展(zhan)(zhan)內(nei)部(bu)(bu)審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)業(ye)(ye)務的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)角度解讀分析報(bao)(bao)告(gao)，筆者推測(ce)對(dui)內(nei)部(bu)(bu)審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)人(ren)員(yuan)(yuan)至少(shao)應(ying)采取以(yi)下行(xing)動：第一，層級(ji)一的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)評估(gu)(gu)(gu)報(bao)(bao)告(gao)結果(guo)，將移交風險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)和(he)(he)內(nei)控制(zhi)(zhi)度建設的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)相(xiang)(xiang)關(guan)(guan)(guan)管(guan)(guan)理(li)人(ren)員(yuan)(yuan)，重新進(jin)行(xing)管(guan)(guan)理(li)風險(xian)方面(mian)(mian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)評級(ji)，并(bing)相(xiang)(xiang)應(ying)加強和(he)(he)完善(shan)相(xiang)(xiang)關(guan)(guan)(guan)內(nei)控制(zhi)(zhi)度建設。內(nei)部(bu)(bu)審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)人(ren)員(yuan)(yuan)有必(bi)要對(dui)關(guan)(guan)(guan)鍵(jian)業(ye)(ye)務進(jin)行(xing)穿行(xing)測(ce)試的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)復(fu)核工作(zuo)，排除評估(gu)(gu)(gu)參與人(ren)員(yuan)(yuan)主觀因素的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影響(xiang)。第二，目(mu)(mu)前針對(dui)海(hai)(hai)外(wai)(wai)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)已開展(zhan)(zhan)內(nei)控審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)，但現(xian)實(shi)情況(kuang)(kuang)是(shi)(shi)，以(yi)往開展(zhan)(zhan)內(nei)控審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)時(shi)，內(nei)部(bu)(bu)審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)人(ren)員(yuan)(yuan)不了(le)解海(hai)(hai)外(wai)(wai)資產(chan)管(guan)(guan)理(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)相(xiang)(xiang)關(guan)(guan)(guan)復(fu)雜性，無(wu)法確(que)定審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)重點，往往采用通常的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)手段開展(zhan)(zhan)工作(zuo)，審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)結論(lun)也(ye)許會流于(yu)表面(mian)(mian)，不能(neng)實(shi)現(xian)審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)目(mu)(mu)標，管(guan)(guan)理(li)層閱讀審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)報(bao)(bao)告(gao)也(ye)無(wu)法獲取其(qi)關(guan)(guan)(guan)注的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)信息。那么(me)，基于(yu)此(ci)，層級(ji)二的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)評估(gu)(gu)(gu)報(bao)(bao)告(gao)結果(guo)，基于(yu)其(qi)真實(shi)反映(ying)了(le)海(hai)(hai)外(wai)(wai)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)管(guan)(guan)理(li)情況(kuang)(kuang)，那么(me)這份報(bao)(bao)告(gao)既可(ke)用于(yu)幫助(zhu)內(nei)部(bu)(bu)審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)人(ren)員(yuan)(yuan)有針對(dui)性地(di)制(zhi)(zhi)定審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)實(shi)施(shi)(shi)方案，同時(shi)，也(ye)是(shi)(shi)管(guan)(guan)理(li)層管(guan)(guan)理(li)決策的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)重要依(yi)據。第三，針對(dui)非作(zuo)業(ye)(ye)者項目(mu)(mu)，中(zhong)(zhong)方實(shi)施(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)是(shi)(shi)聯合(he)賬(zhang)(zhang)簿審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)，審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)對(dui)象是(shi)(shi)作(zuo)業(ye)(ye)者外(wai)(wai)國石油公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)和(he)(he)其(qi)聯合(he)賬(zhang)(zhang)簿，并(bing)未覆蓋到(dao)聯合(he)作(zuo)業(ye)(ye)委員(yuan)(yuan)會中(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)中(zhong)(zhong)方人(ren)員(yuan)(yuan)盡職情況(kuang)(kuang)。層級(ji)三的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)控制(zhi)(zhi)自(zi)我評估(gu)(gu)(gu)報(bao)(bao)告(gao)，期望(wang)達(da)到(dao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)目(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)是(shi)(shi)至少(shao)了(le)解這些關(guan)(guan)(guan)鍵(jian)人(ren)員(yuan)(yuan)對(dui)中(zhong)(zhong)方在(zai)該聯合(he)作(zuo)業(ye)(ye)中(zhong)(zhong)掌握的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)權(quan)利是(shi)(shi)否熟知進(jin)而盡職的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)實(shi)施(shi)(shi)，以(yi)保(bao)障我中(zhong)(zhong)方的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)合(he)法權(quan)益得到(dao)保(bao)障。當然，報(bao)(bao)告(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)結果(guo)也(ye)可(ke)幫助(zhu)聯合(he)賬(zhang)(zhang)簿審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)師確(que)定中(zhong)(zhong)方控制(zhi)(zhi)薄弱的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)方面(mian)(mian)，進(jin)而在(zai)向作(zuo)業(ye)(ye)者實(shi)施(shi)(shi)審(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)時(shi)，重點、深入地(di)開展(zhan)(zhan)測(ce)試、復(fu)核。

五、小結

“審(shen)(shen)計(ji)”現在(zai)是(shi)熱門的(de)名詞，本文的(de)目的(de)除了從業(ye)務(wu)層面，探(tan)討實施控制內部評估(gu)將(jiang)大大助(zhu)益(yi)內部審(shen)(shen)計(ji)工作的(de)開展，同(tong)時(shi)，更是(shi)為了強調，審(shen)(shen)計(ji)或者內部審(shen)(shen)計(ji)，已(yi)經是(shi)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)風(feng)險管理的(de)第三道(dao)防線(xian)。我(wo)們除了研(yan)究審(shen)(shen)計(ji)技(ji)巧、審(shen)(shen)計(ji)手段等，眼光仍(reng)應前置(zhi)，從最有(you)利于避免企(qi)(qi)業(ye)內控失效的(de)方法開始，將(jiang)內部審(shen)(shen)計(ji)放在(zai)次(ci)要(yao)或輔助(zhu)的(de)地(di)位，這(zhe)樣意(yi)識形態下的(de)組(zu)織，才更具有(you)活(huo)力和持續發展潛力。

作者:周彤 單(dan)位(wei):中國海洋石油(you)國際(ji)有限公司(si)

參考文獻

[1]企業內部控制(zhi)基本規范[S].財會[2008]7號.

[2]企(qi)業內部(bu)控制配(pei)套指引[S].財會[2010]11號.

[3]內部(bu)審(shen)計(ji)具體準則(ze)第21號———內部(bu)審(shen)計(ji)的控制自(zi)我評估法(fa)[S].中(zhong)國內審(shen)協(xie)會，2006（7）.

[4]李娜(na)：企(qi)業(ye)內部控制自我評價(jia)體系研究[D].天津財經大學，2009.

[5]韻(yun)學(xue)飛：中(zhong)國石油企業對外(wai)投資(zi)的風險分析[D].中(zhong)央民族(zu)大(da)學(xue)，2013.

篇7

關鍵詞(ci)：建筑業；財務(wu)風險；對(dui)策

一、建筑業財(cai)務風險管理特征(zheng)分析

建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)財(cai)務風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理具有多面(mian)性(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)特征，具體(ti)具有以(yi)下(xia)幾個方面(mian)：不(bu)確(que)(que)定(ding)性(xing)、普(pu)遍性(xing)、全面(mian)性(xing)、客(ke)觀(guan)性(xing)以(yi)及(ji)(ji)(ji)階(jie)(jie)段(duan)性(xing)。所謂(wei)不(bu)確(que)(que)定(ding)性(xing)是(shi)由(you)于(yu)建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)自身屬性(xing)所決定(ding)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)，建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)必須在(zai)規(gui)定(ding)工期(qi)時間內(nei)(nei)，按照合(he)同(tong)約定(ding)價款完(wan)成規(gui)定(ding)質量要(yao)(yao)求的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)構筑(zhu)(zhu)物。項目(mu)需(xu)要(yao)(yao)工期(qi)普(pu)遍都(dou)(dou)很(hen)長，這(zhe)其中面(mian)對(dui)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)商務風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、施(shi)工內(nei)(nei)外環境風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、利益風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)以(yi)及(ji)(ji)(ji)項目(mu)自身風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等(deng)都(dou)(dou)具有很(hen)大的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)不(bu)確(que)(que)定(ding)性(xing)。普(pu)遍性(xing)是(shi)指(zhi)(zhi)，建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)財(cai)務風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)普(pu)遍存(cun)在(zai)，任(ren)何建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)項目(mu)都(dou)(dou)需(xu)要(yao)(yao)給(gei)予足夠重視(shi)。全面(mian)性(xing)是(shi)指(zhi)(zhi)，建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)財(cai)務面(mian)對(dui)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)相對(dui)較(jiao)多，例如政(zheng)治風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、經濟風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、法(fa)律風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、合(he)同(tong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)以(yi)及(ji)(ji)(ji)自然(ran)災害風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等(deng)。其次，建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)涉及(ji)(ji)(ji)面(mian)較(jiao)廣，需(xu)要(yao)(yao)聯(lian)系的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)部(bu)門(men)繁多，整個項目(mu)壽命(ming)周期(qi)過程中風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)時刻存(cun)在(zai)，例如存(cun)在(zai)設計風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、投標風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、施(shi)工風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等(deng)。客(ke)觀(guan)性(xing)是(shi)指(zhi)(zhi)，建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)財(cai)務風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)客(ke)觀(guan)存(cun)在(zai)，不(bu)可避免，無論(lun)采取什么措施(shi)或者手(shou)段(duan)都(dou)(dou)不(bu)可能將建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)財(cai)務風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)降為(wei)零。階(jie)(jie)段(duan)性(xing)是(shi)指(zhi)(zhi)，建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)財(cai)務風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)一般(ban)分為(wei)三個階(jie)(jie)段(duan)。前期(qi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)尚未發生，還處(chu)(chu)于(yu)潛(qian)伏階(jie)(jie)段(duan)，雖然(ran)沒有造成損失，但是(shi)需(xu)要(yao)(yao)給(gei)予實時關注；中期(qi)為(wei)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)發生階(jie)(jie)段(duan)，風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)處(chu)(chu)于(yu)發展階(jie)(jie)段(duan)，需(xu)要(yao)(yao)及(ji)(ji)(ji)時給(gei)予處(chu)(chu)理；后期(qi)為(wei)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)發生后果階(jie)(jie)段(duan)，主要(yao)(yao)任(ren)務是(shi)總結(jie)經驗，為(wei)以(yi)后作(zuo)參(can)考。

二、建筑業財務風險分析

(一)建筑行業財務風險(xian)管理意識薄弱

建筑行業(ye)財務(wu)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)重(zhong)視程度(du)(du)不(bu)夠(gou)會造成(cheng)不(bu)可估量的(de)(de)后果。由于財務(wu)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)意識(shi)薄弱，風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)預(yu)警體(ti)制(zhi)(zhi)很(hen)難(nan)發揮出其應(ying)有的(de)(de)作(zuo)用。目(mu)前，我國多(duo)數建筑企業(ye)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)制(zhi)(zhi)度(du)(du)不(bu)夠(gou)完善，可操(cao)作(zuo)性不(bu)強，有的(de)(de)財務(wu)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)制(zhi)(zhi)度(du)(du)與(yu)當地有關(guan)規(gui)(gui)定，甚(shen)至與(yu)當地法(fa)律法(fa)規(gui)(gui)相沖突(tu)，脫離實際，制(zhi)(zhi)度(du)(du)形同虛設，無法(fa)正常運轉。建筑行業(ye)財務(wu)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)意識(shi)薄弱與(yu)獎(jiang)懲制(zhi)(zhi)度(du)(du)息(xi)息(xi)相關(guan)，一些建筑項目(mu)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)制(zhi)(zhi)度(du)(du)沒(mei)有配(pei)套的(de)(de)獎(jiang)懲制(zhi)(zhi)度(du)(du)，員(yuan)工沒(mei)有參與(yu)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)動力。

(二(er))建筑(zhu)行業財務(wu)風險評估機制缺乏專業性

由于我(wo)國(guo)建(jian)筑行(xing)業風(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)研究還(huan)處在初期階段，可供參考的(de)經(jing)驗少(shao)之又(you)少(shao)。不(bu)僅(jin)建(jian)筑企業財務風(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)人(ren)才少(shao)，國(guo)內(nei)相(xiang)關專家也(ye)不(bu)多(duo)(duo)，專業人(ren)才培養遠遠跟不(bu)上(shang)行(xing)業發(fa)展步伐(fa)。前幾年我(wo)國(guo)剛剛出現風(feng)險(xian)(xian)評估(gu)師(shi)的(de)職(zhi)務，但新興(xing)行(xing)業需要一段時(shi)間成長，不(bu)僅(jin)評估(gu)人(ren)員(yuan)數量嚴重缺乏，評估(gu)人(ren)員(yuan)素質(zhi)也(ye)有(you)待進一步提高(gao)。目(mu)前，很(hen)多(duo)(duo)評估(gu)師(shi)缺乏實(shi)戰經(jing)驗，多(duo)(duo)數還(huan)停留在理(li)論研究層面，實(shi)際應用水平(ping)較低(di)，因此風(feng)險(xian)(xian)評估(gu)精(jing)確(que)性不(bu)高(gao)，不(bu)能(neng)對建(jian)筑行(xing)業財務提供可靠的(de)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)保(bao)障。

(三)風險管理技術水平(ping)偏低(di)

與國(guo)際一(yi)些建筑行(xing)業財(cai)務(wu)風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)技(ji)術較成(cheng)熟的國(guo)家(jia)相(xiang)比，我國(guo)進(jin)(jin)行(xing)建筑業財(cai)務(wu)風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)缺乏成(cheng)熟的經(jing)驗，可借(jie)鑒的方法很少，只能摸搜著前行(xing)，需要耗費的人力和(he)財(cai)力成(cheng)本相(xiang)對較高。即使(shi)邀請(qing)國(guo)外風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)專家(jia)參(can)加風(feng)險(xian)識別環節，由于國(guo)情差異，企業環境不同，很難達到降本增效的目的。如果(guo)采用國(guo)外先進(jin)(jin)的項目風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)軟件，在后期分析(xi)和(he)評價也會出現(xian)錯誤，影響(xiang)最(zui)終風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)效果(guo)。

三、加強建筑業財務(wu)風險管理的對策

(一)提(ti)升建(jian)筑業財務科技含量

借力(li)(li)高(gao)新技(ji)術企業(ye)平(ping)臺(tai)，借助高(gao)新技(ji)術企業(ye)政(zheng)策優(you)勢，實(shi)施建(jian)筑業(ye)財務(wu)(wu)創新驅動發(fa)展(zhan)。加(jia)強通用技(ji)術研(yan)究，瞄準國內外(wai)工(gong)程(cheng)建(jian)設領域的(de)科技(ji)前沿，加(jia)大(da)對高(gao)、新、難項目的(de)技(ji)術研(yan)究和創新力(li)(li)度，突破技(ji)術制約瓶頸，提升企業(ye)市場競爭力(li)(li)，降低(di)企業(ye)財務(wu)(wu)風險。強化博士后科研(yan)工(gong)作(zuo)站(zhan)紐帶作(zuo)用，加(jia)強與高(gao)校(xiao)、科研(yan)機構的(de)合(he)作(zuo)，建(jian)立跨界創新聯(lian)盟，促進產學研(yan)用貫通，推進產業(ye)鏈(lian)、創新鏈(lian)融合(he)。加(jia)大(da)科技(ji)投入，著力(li)(li)問題解決型、集成(cheng)應用型課題研(yan)發(fa)，推進成(cheng)果集成(cheng)和知識產權(quan)工(gong)作(zuo)，為降低(di)建(jian)筑業(ye)財務(wu)(wu)風險做好(hao)基礎工(gong)作(zuo)。

(二)提升建筑(zhu)業財務人(ren)力水平(ping)

牢(lao)固樹立(li)人力(li)(li)資(zi)源(yuan)是第一(yi)資(zi)源(yuan)的理念，將人力(li)(li)資(zi)源(yuan)開發管理、干部(bu)人才(cai)隊(dui)伍建設、優化人力(li)(li)資(zi)源(yuan)配(pei)置和薪酬體制(zhi)改(gai)革(ge)等，作為持(chi)續(xu)推動建筑(zhu)業(ye)財(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)科學發展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)的重大戰(zhan)略任務(wu)(wu)(wu)來抓，堅定(ding)不(bu)移(yi)地繼續(xu)實施(shi)財(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)人才(cai)強(qiang)企戰(zhan)略，以(yi)改(gai)革(ge)創新精神著力(li)(li)解決(jue)制(zhi)約人才(cai)發展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)的突出問題，實現(xian)財(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)人才(cai)規(gui)模、結構(gou)、素質與企業(ye)發展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)相(xiang)適應，與產(chan)業(ye)結構(gou)相(xiang)協調(diao)，財(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)人才(cai)發展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)環境進一(yi)步改(gai)善，財(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)人才(cai)比(bi)較優勢基(ji)本確立(li)，保障建筑(zhu)企業(ye)持(chi)續(xu)健康發展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)。可以(yi)拿(na)出各機關(guan)、各部(bu)門、各項(xiang)目人員績效薪酬總(zong)額的10%，進行內部(bu)再分配(pei)，打破平均主義(yi)，拉開收(shou)入差距，倒逼案例企業(ye)財(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)員工提(ti)升素質能力(li)(li)，積極擔當作為。

(三)完(wan)善建筑業項目財(cai)務風(feng)險管理

建(jian)筑(zhu)企業應當(dang)實(shi)時推進項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)內(nei)(nei)部承包制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)、模(mo)擬股份制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)，盡(jin)可(ke)能調動員(yuan)(yuan)工工作積極性，給員(yuan)(yuan)工帶來真正(zheng)的(de)(de)(de)實(shi)惠。尤(you)其針對標前(qian)虧損的(de)(de)(de)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)必須(xu)開展模(mo)擬股份制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)和(he)內(nei)(nei)部承包制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)改革，并(bing)確定項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)減(jian)虧后分紅負責(ze)人。在完(wan)善建(jian)筑(zhu)業財(cai)務風(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)，大(da)力推行(xing)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)股份制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)改革過程(cheng)中，需要杜絕(jue)出現(xian)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)前(qian)期盈利(li)，后期出現(xian)虧損的(de)(de)(de)局(ju)面出現(xian)，因此，需要加強過程(cheng)管(guan)理(li)和(he)控制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)。在模(mo)擬股份制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)度沒(mei)有成熟之前(qian)，不(bu)能搞一刀(dao)切，需要給子公司(si)(si)一定的(de)(de)(de)自主權，各子公司(si)(si)根據自身實(shi)際情況和(he)各項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)實(shi)際情況自己定，在項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)人員(yuan)(yuan)選擇、隊伍選用、物(wu)質設(she)備采購和(he)租賃(lin)以及具體獎懲辦法上(shang)各出個的(de)(de)(de)招數，并(bing)鼓(gu)勵大(da)家積極試，大(da)膽(dan)闖，只要不(bu)違法不(bu)謀私，出于公心，有利(li)于完(wan)善建(jian)筑(zhu)業項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)財(cai)務風(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)，有利(li)于提高項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)經(jing)濟(ji)效(xiao)益，有利(li)于增加職工福(fu)祉的(de)(de)(de)都應該(gai)給予鼓(gu)勵。

(四)構建全面的財務風險識別及預警體系

構建(jian)全面、有(you)效(xiao)的(de)財(cai)(cai)務(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)識別(bie)及(ji)預(yu)(yu)警(jing)體系，及(ji)時發(fa)現潛在的(de)財(cai)(cai)務(wu)管(guan)理風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)，為財(cai)(cai)務(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)的(de)控制及(ji)防范(fan)爭(zheng)取有(you)利(li)時機。第(di)一(yi)，采取現場觀(guan)察法和(he)財(cai)(cai)務(wu)報(bao)表(biao)(biao)(biao)法，定(ding)期與不(bu)定(ding)期的(de)對(dui)(dui)施(shi)(shi)工企(qi)業潛在財(cai)(cai)務(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)進(jin)行(xing)識別(bie)、分(fen)析(xi)。現場觀(guan)察法是指(zhi)通過直接(jie)觀(guan)察建(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)施(shi)(shi)工企(qi)業的(de)施(shi)(shi)工活動，從(cong)中(zhong)發(fa)現并掌握施(shi)(shi)工企(qi)業面臨的(de)各(ge)類(lei)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)；財(cai)(cai)務(wu)報(bao)表(biao)(biao)(biao)法則(ze)要求對(dui)(dui)建(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)企(qi)業資(zi)產(chan)負(fu)債表(biao)(biao)(biao)、損益表(biao)(biao)(biao)及(ji)現金(jin)流量表(biao)(biao)(biao)等(deng)財(cai)(cai)務(wu)報(bao)表(biao)(biao)(biao)進(jin)行(xing)縱向、橫向對(dui)(dui)比分(fen)析(xi)，找(zhao)出企(qi)業潛在風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)及(ji)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)因素。第(di)二，構建(jian)科學、全面的(de)財(cai)(cai)務(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)預(yu)(yu)警(jing)指(zhi)標體系，該(gai)體系應重點考(kao)核建(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)企(qi)業的(de)資(zi)產(chan)運營能力(li)、償債能力(li)、盈利(li)能力(li)及(ji)其成長性等(deng)指(zhi)標，通過參考(kao)同業水平、企(qi)業近幾年的(de)歷史財(cai)(cai)務(wu)指(zhi)標確定(ding)預(yu)(yu)警(jing)指(zhi)標的(de)標準值，定(ding)期編制財(cai)(cai)務(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)預(yu)(yu)警(jing)分(fen)析(xi)報(bao)告。

四、結束語

從二十世(shi)(shi)紀90年代開始(shi)，我國開始(shi)大規模進行(xing)(xing)(xing)建筑(zhu)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)財(cai)(cai)務(wu)風險管(guan)理(li)方(fang)面(mian)的(de)理(li)論(lun)研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)，并開始(shi)嘗試實(shi)踐(jian)應用，逐步總結(jie)出了一(yi)些經驗。上個(ge)世(shi)(shi)紀，國內建筑(zhu)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)財(cai)(cai)務(wu)風險管(guan)理(li)研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)側(ce)重于相關理(li)論(lun)和數據分(fen)析上，系(xi)統性方(fang)面(mian)還存(cun)在(zai)欠缺，理(li)論(lun)聯系(xi)實(shi)際有(you)待進一(yi)步提高，因此，需要(yao)建筑(zhu)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)財(cai)(cai)務(wu)風險管(guan)理(li)方(fang)面(mian)的(de)專家(jia)、學者以及實(shi)踐(jian)經驗豐(feng)富的(de)實(shi)際工作者多進行(xing)(xing)(xing)此方(fang)面(mian)的(de)研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)和分(fen)析，為(wei)建筑(zhu)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)財(cai)(cai)務(wu)風險管(guan)理(li)作出應有(you)的(de)貢獻。

參考文獻：

篇8

近年來，風險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)開始(shi)進入中國(guo)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)務管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)領域，衍生出“稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)風險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)概念，它是(shi)指(zhi)以最小的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)成本代價降(jiang)低(di)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)流失(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)一系列(lie)程序(xu)，是(shi)一種積極、主動(dong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)，能創造(zao)出穩定(ding)有(you)序(xu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)征(zheng)管(guan)(guan)環境，有(you)利于(yu)建(jian)立和(he)(he)諧的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)征(zheng)納關(guan)系，有(you)效提(ti)(ti)升稅(shui)(shui)(shui)源管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)質量和(he)(he)效率。本文從理(li)(li)論(lun)到實踐，從國(guo)際(ji)和(he)(he)國(guo)內(nei)全新視角，進一步(bu)開拓視野，廣泛借鑒國(guo)際(ji)上稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)風險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)先進理(li)(li)念和(he)(he)經驗，結(jie)合我國(guo)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)風險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)實踐經驗，探(tan)索構建(jian)烏(wu)魯木齊(qi)市稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)風險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)理(li)(li)論(lun)和(he)(he)方法體系，對于(yu)有(you)效推(tui)進和(he)(he)實施烏(wu)市稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)風險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)，提(ti)(ti)高征(zheng)管(guan)(guan)質效，降(jiang)低(di)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)流失(shi)風險(xian)，提(ti)(ti)高納稅(shui)(shui)(shui)人滿(man)意(yi)度(du)和(he)(he)遵從度(du)具有(you)重大的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)理(li)(li)論(lun)意(yi)義和(he)(he)現實意(yi)義。

稅收(shou)風險管(guan)(guan)理包括稅收(shou)流失(shi)的(de)風險管(guan)(guan)理和稅收(shou)執法風險管(guan)(guan)理，本文重點闡述稅收(shou)流失(shi)的(de)風險管(guan)(guan)理。

一、稅收(shou)風險(xian)管理研(yan)究(jiu)背景

隨著我國經(jing)濟體制改革的(de)不斷(duan)深(shen)入，市場經(jing)濟的(de)不斷(duan)發展，稅(shui)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)分布(bu)領(ling)域越(yue)(yue)來(lai)越(yue)(yue)廣泛，流(liu)動性(xing)和(he)隱蔽性(xing)越(yue)(yue)來(lai)越(yue)(yue)強。經(jing)濟決定稅(shui)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，稅(shui)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)決定稅(shui)收(shou)，這(zhe)是一(yi)個簡單(dan)的(de)稅(shui)收(shou)經(jing)濟學原理(li)。但在(zai)實(shi)際稅(shui)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)管(guan)(guan)理(li)過程中，由于受諸(zhu)多客(ke)觀不確定因素的(de)影響，稅(shui)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)并不一(yi)定完(wan)全(quan)形成稅(shui)收(shou)，從而導致(zhi)客(ke)觀稅(shui)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)決定的(de)納(na)稅(shui)能(neng)力與實(shi)際稅(shui)收(shou)之間(jian)存(cun)(cun)在(zai)事實(shi)上的(de)差異，這(zhe)種差異表明稅(shui)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)管(guan)(guan)理(li)過程中事實(shi)上存(cun)(cun)在(zai)稅(shui)收(shou)流(liu)失(shi)的(de)風險。

根(gen)據《中(zhong)國(guo)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)務(wu)(wu)(wu)稽查(cha)年(nian)(nian)鑒》公布的(de)(de)(de)，全(quan)國(guo)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)務(wu)(wu)(wu)稽查(cha)數據顯示的(de)(de)(de)全(quan)國(guo)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)流失(shi)(shi)率，與同期稅(shui)(shui)(shui)務(wu)(wu)(wu)機(ji)關征(zheng)收(shou)(shou)的(de)(de)(de)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)總額，可以(yi)推算出(chu)同期全(quan)國(guo)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)流失(shi)(shi)額。從數量上看(kan)，我(wo)國(guo)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)流失(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)總量逐年(nian)(nian)增加，近五年(nian)(nian)每(mei)年(nian)(nian)在3000-4000億(yi)元左(zuo)右(you)，數額驚人(ren)。稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)流失(shi)(shi)影(ying)響了(le)我(wo)國(guo)的(de)(de)(de)財政收(shou)(shou)入(ru)，弱化(hua)了(le)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)宏觀調控(kong)功(gong)能和(he)資源(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)有效配(pei)置(zhi)，加劇了(le)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)分配(pei)的(de)(de)(de)不公。如何(he)有效地減少稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)流失(shi)(shi)，是理(li)(li)論界和(he)各地稅(shui)(shui)(shui)務(wu)(wu)(wu)機(ji)關多(duo)年(nian)(nian)來(lai)一直(zhi)不斷探索的(de)(de)(de)課題。健全(quan)法制(zhi)、完(wan)善稅(shui)(shui)(shui)制(zhi)，規范(fan)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)式支(zhi)出(chu)、加大稅(shui)(shui)(shui)法宣傳(chuan)力(li)度、提(ti)高納(na)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)意識等等，其(qi)中(zhong)最直(zhi)接(jie)有效可控(kong)的(de)(de)(de)措(cuo)施，是建(jian)立現代稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)征(zheng)管(guan)(guan)體系(xi)(xi)。自20__年(nian)(nian)以(yi)來(lai)，國(guo)家稅(shui)(shui)(shui)務(wu)(wu)(wu)總局多(duo)次(ci)提(ti)出(chu)深化(hua)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)征(zheng)管(guan)(guan)改革(ge)，構(gou)建(jian)適應(ying)現代經濟社會發展的(de)(de)(de)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)征(zheng)管(guan)(guan)體系(xi)(xi)的(de)(de)(de)要(yao)求，即“構(gou)建(jian)以(yi)明(ming)晰征(zheng)納(na)雙(shuang)方權利和(he)義務(wu)(wu)(wu)為(wei)(wei)前提(ti)，以(yi)風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)為(wei)(wei)導向(xiang)，以(yi)專業化(hua)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)為(wei)(wei)基礎，以(yi)重點(dian)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)源(yuan)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)為(wei)(wei)著力(li)點(dian)，以(yi)信(xin)息(xi)化(hua)為(wei)(wei)支(zhi)撐的(de)(de)(de)現代化(hua)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)征(zheng)管(guan)(guan)體系(xi)(xi)。”“信(xin)息(xi)管(guan)(guan)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)”、“稅(shui)(shui)(shui)源(yuan)專業化(hua)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)”、“風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)”的(de)(de)(de)提(ti)出(chu)，為(wei)(wei)實施全(quan)面的(de)(de)(de)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)做了(le)技術、業務(wu)(wu)(wu)和(he)理(li)(li)論的(de)(de)(de)準備。可見，稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)是我(wo)國(guo)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)征(zheng)管(guan)(guan)改革(ge)的(de)(de)(de)方向(xiang)和(he)目(mu)標。

稅(shui)收風險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理也是國際稅(shui)收管(guan)(guan)理的發展(zhan)趨勢(shi)，是學(xue)習借(jie)鑒(jian)國際稅(shui)收管(guan)(guan)理的先(xian)進理念和(he)(he)經(jing)驗與我國稅(shui)收管(guan)(guan)理實際相結合的產物。各地稅(shui)務部(bu)門(men)積(ji)極探索(suo)和(he)(he)實踐(jian)，已取得初步(bu)成效。但由于(yu)(yu)我國稅(shui)收風險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理理論(lun)和(he)(he)實踐(jian)的探索(suo)處于(yu)(yu)起步(bu)階段，在(zai)諸多方面尚存在(zai)許(xu)多瓶頸需(xu)要破解，很多難題需(xu)要探索(suo)和(he)(he)研究解決。

二、稅收風(feng)險管理的(de)基本理論

（一）稅(shui)收風險概述

1.稅(shui)收(shou)風險及稅(shui)收(shou)風險特征(zheng)(zheng)。稅(shui)收(shou)風險是實現稅(shui)收(shou)征(zheng)(zheng)管目標的障礙(ai)，是指國(guo)家在稅(shui)收(shou)征(zheng)(zheng)管過程(cheng)中，在系(xi)列不確定性因(yin)素導致(zhi)納(na)稅(shui)人未(wei)全面(mian)遵從稅(shui)法的情況(kuang)下，形成的稅(shui)收(shou)流失的可(ke)能(neng)性，使(shi)實際(ji)稅(shui)收(shou)的征(zheng)(zheng)收(shou)結果與稅(shui)收(shou)預期之間客觀上發(fa)生偏差。

稅收風(feng)險(xian)(xian)從狹義上講，主要是(shi)指管理性稅收風(feng)險(xian)(xian)，表(biao)現(xian)為兩個方面：一(yi)是(shi)納(na)稅遵(zun)從風(feng)險(xian)(xian)，二是(shi)稅收執法風(feng)險(xian)(xian)。本文研究的(de)是(shi)納(na)稅遵(zun)從風(feng)險(xian)(xian)，即由(you)于納(na)稅人對政策認識不(bu)(bu)足(zu)、工作疏漏(lou)等(deng)情況(kuang)造成非故(gu)意(yi)性不(bu)(bu)遵(zun)從，納(na)稅人利用自身(shen)信息優勢等(deng)不(bu)(bu)正當方式故(gu)意(yi)或惡(e)意(yi)不(bu)(bu)遵(zun)從，形成的(de)稅收流失的(de)可能性和不(bu)(bu)確定(ding)性。

稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)除了(le)具有一(yi)般風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)共(gong)同特(te)征外，還具有其獨有的(de)(de)特(te)征屬(shu)性(xing)(xing)(xing)：隱蔽性(xing)(xing)(xing)和潛伏(fu)性(xing)(xing)(xing)，稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)形成機制復雜多變，使得(de)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)不(bu)容易被及(ji)時發現和察覺并加以(yi)管(guan)理。納稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)人(ren)利(li)用技術(shu)手段將(jiang)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)顯性(xing)(xing)(xing)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)人(ren)為處(chu)理為隱形風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)，促(cu)使風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)累積，導(dao)致風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)壓力，形成真正的(de)(de)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)流失；難(nan)于化(hua)解性(xing)(xing)(xing)，稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)與國家的(de)(de)政治制度、經(jing)(jing)濟運行、稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)制度、稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)管(guan)理體制、管(guan)理能(neng)力及(ji)納稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)遵(zun)從度等方面密切相關，使得(de)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)防范、控制、化(hua)解的(de)(de)管(guan)理難(nan)度較(jiao)大；傳導(dao)性(xing)(xing)(xing)，稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)會(hui)在上(shang)級或(huo)下級稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)之間傳導(dao)和擴散(san)，導(dao)致整個稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)系統風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)共(gong)擔。稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)系統又與社會(hui)經(jing)(jing)濟緊密相關，相互(hu)影響、相互(hu)轉化(hua)。所以(yi)，稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)仍然是最為嚴重(zhong)的(de)(de)社會(hui)性(xing)(xing)(xing)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)。

2.稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)分(fen)類及表現形式。稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)分(fen)類：按(an)(an)照風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)來源(yuan)，可分(fen)為(wei)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)務(wu)(wu)(wu)部(bu)門稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)和企業稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)；按(an)(an)照風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)可測程(cheng)度，可分(fen)為(wei)指標性(xing)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)和非指標性(xing)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)；按(an)(an)照風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)等級評定，可分(fen)為(wei)一般(ban)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)和重大稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)；按(an)(an)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)承擔主體不同，分(fen)為(wei)納稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)人(ren)(ren)(ren)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)，扣(kou)繳義(yi)務(wu)(wu)(wu)人(ren)(ren)(ren)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)，稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)務(wu)(wu)(wu)人(ren)(ren)(ren)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)，納稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)擔保人(ren)(ren)(ren)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)，其他稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)務(wu)(wu)(wu)行政相(xiang)對人(ren)(ren)(ren)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)；按(an)(an)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)征管過程(cheng)的(de)具體環(huan)節，分(fen)為(wei)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)務(wu)(wu)(wu)登(deng)記風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)，財務(wu)(wu)(wu)核算風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)，稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)源(yuan)監(jian)控風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)，納稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)申(shen)報風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)，信(xin)息報送風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)，稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)務(wu)(wu)(wu)檢查(cha)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)。

稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)風險的表現形式(shi)：在(zai)(zai)(zai)納(na)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)人(ren)方(fang)(fang)面表現為少繳稅(shui)(shui)(shui)（可(ke)能是(shi)無意造成的，也可(ke)能是(shi)故意逃稅(shui)(shui)(shui)），納(na)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)人(ren)在(zai)(zai)(zai)技術上履行了(le)納(na)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)義務，但(dan)因(yin)對稅(shui)(shui)(shui)法的理解不同，而可(ke)能在(zai)(zai)(zai)遵從上出現問題；在(zai)(zai)(zai)征稅(shui)(shui)(shui)人(ren)方(fang)(fang)面，表現為稅(shui)(shui)(shui)法缺乏透明度，稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)征管(guan)方(fang)(fang)式(shi)發生了(le)變化而納(na)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)人(ren)并(bing)不知情等。

（二）稅收(shou)風險(xian)管理的基本原理

1.稅(shui)收(shou)(shou)風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)的(de)概念。稅(shui)收(shou)(shou)風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)：稅(shui)收(shou)(shou)風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)是指稅(shui)務機關(guan)運(yun)用風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)的(de)理(li)(li)(li)念和方(fang)法(fa)(fa)，合理(li)(li)(li)配置管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)資源(yuan)，通過(guo)風(feng)險(xian)分析(xi)識別，風(feng)險(xian)等級排序，風(feng)險(xian)應對(dui)處理(li)(li)(li)，以及過(guo)程監控、績效評估等措施，不斷提高納(na)稅(shui)遵從度(du)的(de)過(guo)程和方(fang)法(fa)(fa)。稅(shui)收(shou)(shou)風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)是現(xian)代(dai)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)科學(xue)和現(xian)代(dai)稅(shui)收(shou)(shou)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)相融合的(de)一個產物。

2.稅(shui)收風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)理(li)(li)(li)論(lun)來源。風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)具有悠(you)久(jiu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)歷史，現(xian)代風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)思想出(chu)(chu)現(xian)在(zai)20世紀(ji)前半世紀(ji)，如法(fa)(fa)約爾(er)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)安全生產思想，馬歇(xie)爾(er)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)“風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)分擔管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)”觀點等。1938年(nian)(nian)以后(hou)，美(mei)國(guo)(guo)企業對風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)開始采(cai)用(yong)(yong)科學的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)方法(fa)(fa)，并(bing)逐步積累(lei)了(le)豐富(fu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)經驗(yan)。1950年(nian)(nian)代風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)發展成為一(yi)門學科，加拉格爾(er)在(zai)“風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)：成本控制(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)新階段”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)論(lun)文中(zhong)，提(ti)出(chu)(chu)了(le)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)概念(nian)。1970年(nian)(nian)代以后(hou)逐漸掀起了(le)全球性的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)運動。1970年(nian)(nian)代以后(hou)，隨(sui)著企業面(mian)臨的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)復雜多樣和(he)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)費用(yong)(yong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)增加，法(fa)(fa)國(guo)(guo)從美(mei)國(guo)(guo)引進了(le)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)并(bing)在(zai)法(fa)(fa)國(guo)(guo)國(guo)(guo)內(nei)傳播開來。

與法(fa)國(guo)同(tong)時(shi)，日本(ben)也(ye)開始了(le)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)研(yan)(yan)究。近20年(nian)來，美(mei)(mei)國(guo)、英國(guo)、法(fa)國(guo)、德國(guo)、日本(ben)等(deng)國(guo)家先后建立起(qi)全國(guo)性和地(di)區性的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)協會。1983年(nian)在美(mei)(mei)國(guo)召開的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)和保(bao)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)協會年(nian)會上(shang)，世界各國(guo)專(zhuan)(zhuan)家學(xue)者(zhe)云集紐(niu)約，共同(tong)討論(lun)(lun)并通過(guo)了(le)“101條風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)準(zhun)則”，它標(biao)志著風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)發(fa)展(zhan)已進入了(le)一(yi)個新的(de)(de)發(fa)展(zhan)階段。1986年(nian)，由歐洲(zhou)11個國(guo)家共同(tong)成(cheng)立的(de)(de)“歐洲(zhou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)研(yan)(yan)究會”將(jiang)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)研(yan)(yan)究擴大(da)到國(guo)際交流范圍。1986年(nian)10月，風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)國(guo)際學(xue)術(shu)討論(lun)(lun)會在新加坡召開，風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)已經由環大(da)西洋(yang)(yang)地(di)區向(xiang)亞洲(zhou)太平(ping)洋(yang)(yang)地(di)區發(fa)展(zhan)。中(zhong)國(guo)對(dui)于風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)研(yan)(yan)究開始于1980年(nian)代。一(yi)些學(xue)者(zhe)將(jiang)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)和安全系統工程理(li)(li)(li)(li)論(lun)(lun)引入中(zhong)國(guo)，在少數企業試用(yong)中(zhong)感覺比(bi)較滿意。中(zhong)國(guo)大(da)部分企業缺乏(fa)對(dui)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)認識，也(ye)沒(mei)有建立專(zhuan)(zhuan)門的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)機構。作為(wei)一(yi)門學(xue)科，風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)學(xue)在中(zhong)國(guo)仍舊處于起(qi)步階段。

3.稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)發(fa)展(zhan)進程(cheng)。oecd（國(guo)(guo)(guo)際經濟合作發(fa)展(zhan)組(zu)織）作為國(guo)(guo)(guo)際組(zu)織把(ba)現代管(guan)理(li)科學中的(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)理(li)論和現代稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)管(guan)理(li)相(xiang)融合，推進了(le)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)的(de)(de)(de)發(fa)展(zhan)：1997年(nian)(nian)7月，oecd通過一個(ge)名為風(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)的(de)(de)(de)應(ying)用(yong)指(zhi)引，對在(zai)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)管(guan)理(li)領(ling)域中應(ying)用(yong)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)模型進行了(le)扼要描述。20__年(nian)(nian)初的(de)(de)(de)oecd戰略管(guan)理(li)論壇(tan)(tan)一致同意(yi)，為促進稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)遵(zun)(zun)從(cong)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)的(de)(de)(de)實踐(jian)應(ying)用(yong)，特(te)別(bie)是(shi)對中小企業稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)遵(zun)(zun)從(cong)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)，提供更(geng)加全面的(de)(de)(de)指(zhi)導(dao)。20__年(nian)(nian)5月，來自oecd成員國(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)許(xu)多(duo)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)務官員在(zai)倫(lun)敦(dun)召(zhao)開(kai)會議，組(zu)建了(le)相(xiang)應(ying)的(de)(de)(de)工作小組(zu)，明確其(qi)工作范(fan)圍主(zhu)要是(shi)關(guan)注影(ying)響(xiang)中小企業國(guo)(guo)(guo)內稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)遵(zun)(zun)從(cong)問題。20__年(nian)(nian)10月，oecd批準了(le)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)管(guan)理(li)遵(zun)(zun)從(cong)小組(zu)論壇(tan)(tan)提供的(de)(de)(de)，題為《遵(zun)(zun)從(cong)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)：管(guan)理(li)和改進稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)遵(zun)(zun)從(cong)》的(de)(de)(de)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)應(ying)用(yong)指(zhi)引。澳大利(li)亞(ya)、法(fa)國(guo)(guo)(guo)、德(de)國(guo)(guo)(guo)、日本(ben)、美國(guo)(guo)(guo)等近二十個(ge)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家稅(shui)(shui)(shui)務專家參與文(wen)獻的(de)(de)(de)起草工作。20__年(nian)(nian)，oecd在(zai)南非開(kai)普敦(dun)召(zhao)開(kai)了(le)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)管(guan)理(li)論壇(tan)(tan)第四次會議，討(tao)論了(le)大企業稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)的(de)(de)(de)相(xiang)關(guan)問題。

稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)在我國(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)發(fa)展(zhan)。20__年全(quan)國(guo)(guo)(guo)征(zheng)(zheng)管(guan)(guan)和(he)科(ke)技(ji)工作(zuo)會議明(ming)確提(ti)出：樹立(li)(li)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)理(li)(li)(li)(li)念(nian)，大力推進信息(xi)管(guan)(guan)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)，樹立(li)(li)現(xian)代(dai)(dai)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)新體(ti)系；20__年全(quan)國(guo)(guo)(guo)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)務(wu)工作(zuo)會議提(ti)出：信息(xi)管(guan)(guan)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)就是樹立(li)(li)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)理(li)(li)(li)(li)念(nian)，依靠立(li)(li)法大力推進部門(men)信息(xi)共享，以涉稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)信息(xi)的(de)(de)(de)采(cai)集、分析和(he)利用為基礎，尋找和(he)識別稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)點和(he)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)源，并采(cai)取有針對性的(de)(de)(de)具體(ti)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)措施。20__年全(quan)國(guo)(guo)(guo)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)務(wu)系統深(shen)化稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)征(zheng)(zheng)管(guan)(guan)改革工作(zuo)會議進一步(bu)明(ming)確提(ti)出：要建(jian)立(li)(li)以稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)為導向的(de)(de)(de)現(xian)代(dai)(dai)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)征(zheng)(zheng)管(guan)(guan)體(ti)系，將稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)貫穿(chuan)于稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)征(zheng)(zheng)管(guan)(guan)的(de)(de)(de)全(quan)過程(cheng)。各地稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)務(wu)部門(men)積(ji)極探索和(he)實(shi)踐，已取得初步(bu)成效(xiao)。

三、實施稅收風(feng)險管理(li)的成因分(fen)析

（一）稅(shui)收風險產生的因(yin)素

稅收(shou)風險的產生是由(you)諸(zhu)多(duo)因素作(zuo)用引起的：。

從(cong)(cong)(cong)納稅人(ren)(ren)偏好(hao)角度看，納稅人(ren)(ren)會比較(jiao)遵(zun)從(cong)(cong)(cong)成(cheng)本(ben)和不(bu)遵(zun)從(cong)(cong)(cong)成(cheng)本(ben)，從(cong)(cong)(cong)而做出遵(zun)從(cong)(cong)(cong)稅法還是逃稅的決定。遵(zun)從(cong)(cong)(cong)成(cheng)本(ben)越高(gao)(gao)，不(bu)遵(zun)從(cong)(cong)(cong)程(cheng)度也越高(gao)(gao)；只(zhi)有當不(bu)遵(zun)從(cong)(cong)(cong)成(cheng)本(ben)高(gao)(gao)于不(bu)遵(zun)從(cong)(cong)(cong)收益時，才能對不(bu)遵(zun)從(cong)(cong)(cong)行為起到(dao)負激勵、負強化作用。

從(cong)稅(shui)(shui)收制(zhi)度的角度看，稅(shui)(shui)制(zhi)和(he)稅(shui)(shui)率的不(bu)(bu)(bu)合理(li)、收入和(he)稅(shui)(shui)負的不(bu)(bu)(bu)公平、征管程序的不(bu)(bu)(bu)公正，容易導致納(na)稅(shui)(shui)人的不(bu)(bu)(bu)滿或產(chan)生對立(li)情(qing)緒。

從(cong)政府提(ti)供公(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)(gong)服務的(de)角度看，納(na)(na)稅人(ren)和政府之間是一種契約關系，納(na)(na)稅人(ren)通過繳納(na)(na)稅款，享(xiang)受政府提(ti)供的(de)公(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)(gong)產品。但在(zai)現(xian)實中(zhong)，這種關系是不完全等價(jia)的(de)，公(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)(gong)支出違背(bei)公(gong)(gong)眾意愿，納(na)(na)稅人(ren)得不到應(ying)有的(de)優(you)質公(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)(gong)服務時，政府公(gong)(gong)信度下降(jiang)，也會導致納(na)(na)稅遵從(cong)度降(jiang)低。

從稅(shui)(shui)收(shou)法制的(de)角(jiao)度看，稅(shui)(shui)收(shou)在(zai)立法環(huan)節(jie)(jie)的(de)法制環(huan)境不(bu)完善；執(zhi)法環(huan)節(jie)(jie)的(de)權限和程序內容存(cun)在(zai)質效低下；司法環(huan)節(jie)(jie)存(cun)在(zai)大(da)量(liang)稅(shui)(shui)收(shou)違法和稅(shui)(shui)收(shou)侵權行為未(wei)走司法程序的(de)情況；法律監督環(huan)節(jie)(jie)流于形(xing)式等，沒(mei)有給(gei)納(na)稅(shui)(shui)人創造(zao)一(yi)個相對公平(ping)的(de)納(na)稅(shui)(shui)環(huan)境。

從(cong)稅(shui)(shui)收(shou)征(zheng)管(guan)的角(jiao)度(du)看，征(zheng)納雙方(fang)存在征(zheng)納博弈和(he)信(xin)息不對稱問題。納稅(shui)(shui)人會(hui)利用信(xin)息優(you)勢為納稅(shui)(shui)不遵(zun)從(cong)作掩護，稅(shui)(shui)務機(ji)關如果征(zheng)管(guan)不嚴，會(hui)客觀上助長逃稅(shui)(shui)、騙稅(shui)(shui)的風氣，產(chan)生(sheng)社會(hui)性稅(shui)(shui)收(shou)風險(xian)。

 從人(ren)(ren)員素質的(de)角度看，稅務人(ren)(ren)員職業素質和(he)執法(fa)水平(ping)(ping)有待提高，納稅人(ren)(ren)的(de)道德水平(ping)(ping)和(he)業務水平(ping)(ping)也(ye)不容樂觀。

綜(zong)上所(suo)述(shu)，引發稅(shui)收風(feng)險(xian)(xian)的原因(yin)復雜多(duo)樣的，稅(shui)收風(feng)險(xian)(xian)只能控(kong)制無法(fa)徹底根除(chu)。但稅(shui)收風(feng)險(xian)(xian)和(he)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)因(yin)素(su)之間存在(zai)聯系，我們可以通過采(cai)取因(yin)素(su)分析和(he)控(kong)制的方法(fa)，來達到降低風(feng)險(xian)(xian)發生概(gai)率、減輕風(feng)險(xian)(xian)損失強(qiang)度的目標。

（二）實施稅收風險管理的原因

稅(shui)(shui)(shui)務機關(guan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)基本管理(li)(li)目(mu)標(biao)是(shi)提高(gao)(gao)納稅(shui)(shui)(shui)遵從度(du)。作為(wei)實施稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)管理(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)主體，其擁有(you)一(yi)定的(de)(de)(de)(de)資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)條件，但是(shi)要保證每一(yi)個納稅(shui)(shui)(shui)人全面遵從稅(shui)(shui)(shui)法(fa)，這些資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)又總是(shi)不足的(de)(de)(de)(de)，即征管資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)是(shi)有(you)限(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)。這就(jiu)意味著，科學(xue)有(you)效的(de)(de)(de)(de)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)管理(li)(li)必須盡量將有(you)限(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)進行合理(li)(li)配置和充(chong)分的(de)(de)(de)(de)利用。按照(zhao)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)管理(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)理(li)(li)念，對稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)遵從風(feng)(feng)險(xian)容易(yi)發生，且風(feng)(feng)險(xian)級(ji)別較(jiao)高(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)領域，優先配置資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)，從而(er)有(you)效地、有(you)針對性地應對風(feng)(feng)險(xian)，獲得(de)較(jiao)高(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)納稅(shui)(shui)(shui)遵從度(du)。稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)管理(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)一(yi)個重要功能，就(jiu)是(shi)幫助稅(shui)(shui)(shui)務機關(guan)找到管理(li)(li)資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)配置策略和遵從目(mu)標(biao)最大(da)化之間的(de)(de)(de)(de)最佳結合點。

稅(shui)收風險管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)不僅是為了(le)更好地選擇納(na)稅(shui)評估、稅(shui)務(wu)稽查案源(yuan)，一方面是為了(le)通(tong)過預先(xian)的分析發(fa)現問題(ti)并采取措施(shi)積極(ji)解決問題(ti)，更重要的是，最有效地使(shi)用資(zi)源(yuan)，使(shi)得管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)措施(shi)最終對(dui)于縮小稅(shui)收遵從缺口規模(mo)起到最有效的作用。

如果稅(shui)收管(guan)理(li)中沒(mei)有一(yi)種工作機制持續地研究分(fen)析(xi)、尋找(zhao)識別稅(shui)收管(guan)理(li)中的風(feng)(feng)險(xian)在哪里？哪些納(na)(na)稅(shui)人(ren)是(shi)最需要關注的風(feng)(feng)險(xian)納(na)(na)稅(shui)人(ren)？那么稅(shui)收管(guan)理(li)只能是(shi)管(guan)理(li)所有的納(na)(na)稅(shui)人(ren)，沒(mei)有重點地管(guan)理(li)，沒(mei)有針對性的管(guan)理(li)，這種管(guan)理(li)會給征納(na)(na)雙(shuang)方帶來成本的增加，是(shi)一(yi)種低(di)效地管(guan)理(li)活動。

四、稅收(shou)風(feng)險(xian)管理的流程與內(nei)容(rong)

稅(shui)收風險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理流程及(ji)內容(rong)設(she)計一(yi)般(ban)包括稅(shui)收風險(xian)戰略(lve)管(guan)(guan)理、風險(xian)的(de)(de)分析識別、風險(xian)的(de)(de)等級評(ping)定、風險(xian)的(de)(de)應(ying)對處理和(he)風險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理的(de)(de)績效評(ping)價。

（一）稅收風險(xian)管理的流程(cheng)設計

稅(shui)收(shou)風(feng)險(xian)管理(li)是對(dui)管理(li)目(mu)標科(ke)學規劃，稅(shui)收(shou)風(feng)險(xian)分(fen)析(xi)識別、風(feng)險(xian)程度等級排序、風(feng)險(xian)應對(dui)處理(li)、風(feng)險(xian)控制降低、排查的管理(li)流(liu)程系(xi)統。稅(shui)收(shou)風(feng)險(xian)管理(li)是一(yi)個(ge)周(zhou)期循(xun)環、不(bu)斷(duan)改(gai)進、螺旋提升的管理(li)過程。

稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收風(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)理流程(cheng)基本(ben)上分(fen)為四(si)個階(jie)段(duan)：一是(shi)(shi)明確稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收風(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)理戰略目(mu)標，制定稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收風(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)理戰略規劃及相(xiang)關制度(du)和標準，是(shi)(shi)頂層(ceng)設(she)計的基礎階(jie)段(duan)；二是(shi)(shi)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收風(feng)險(xian)(xian)分(fen)析監控，即(ji)運用(yong)涉(she)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)信(xin)息數據開(kai)展(zhan)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收風(feng)險(xian)(xian)分(fen)析識(shi)別(bie)、風(feng)險(xian)(xian)等級(ji)測(ce)度(du)與排序、預警監測(ce)，是(shi)(shi)事前、事中(zhong)對稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收風(feng)險(xian)(xian)的預警防范(fan)階(jie)段(duan)；三(san)是(shi)(shi)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收風(feng)險(xian)(xian)的應對處(chu)理，是(shi)(shi)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收風(feng)險(xian)(xian)有效(xiao)(xiao)控制、排除階(jie)段(duan)；四(si)是(shi)(shi)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收風(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)理的績效(xiao)(xiao)評價(jia)和改進(jin)(jin)完(wan)善，是(shi)(shi)事后考核評價(jia)階(jie)段(duan)。在整(zheng)個風(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)理流程(cheng)中(zhong)，第二和第三(san)階(jie)段(duan)是(shi)(shi)核心重要階(jie)段(duan)。在實際工作(zuo)中(zhong)，應該按照(zhao)科學的操作(zuo)流程(cheng)依次進(jin)(jin)行，細化(hua)流程(cheng)節點，有序開(kai)展(zhan)，相(xiang)互銜接，有效(xiao)(xiao)配(pei)合(he)，分(fen)部門分(fen)階(jie)段(duan)推進(jin)(jin)和實施。

（二）稅收風險管理的具體內(nei)容(rong)

1.稅收(shou)風險目(mu)(mu)(mu)標規(gui)劃。明確(que)稅收(shou)風險管(guan)理(li)目(mu)(mu)(mu)標和(he)(he)研究制(zhi)定戰略(lve)規(gui)劃，是稅收(shou)風險管(guan)理(li)的(de)開始階段。稅收(shou)風險目(mu)(mu)(mu)標規(gui)劃是指管(guan)理(li)層在對(dui)外部環境和(he)(he)內(nei)部條件進行認真分析研究的(de)基礎上，對(dui)一定時期內(nei)稅收(shou)風險管(guan)理(li)的(de)工作目(mu)(mu)(mu)標、階段重點、方針(zhen)策略(lve)、主(zhu)要措(cuo)施、實(shi)施步(bu)驟(zou)等(deng)作出的(de)具有(you)系統性、全局性的(de)謀劃。制(zhi)定一個完整的(de)目(mu)(mu)(mu)標規(gui)劃，首先要對(dui)內(nei)外部形(xing)勢做準(zhun)確(que)的(de)判斷，明確(que)組織目(mu)(mu)(mu)標，確(que)定實(shi)現目(mu)(mu)(mu)標的(de)方針(zhen)策略(lve)和(he)(he)實(shi)施的(de)重點步(bu)驟(zou)，以及(ji)必要的(de)組織技(ji)術(shu)保(bao)障等(deng)。

2.稅(shui)(shui)收風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)分(fen)析識(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)。稅(shui)(shui)收風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)就是(shi)通過運(yun)用涉稅(shui)(shui)信息和(he)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)特征庫技術和(he)相(xiang)關(guan)工具方(fang)法，尋找和(he)發(fa)現稅(shui)(shui)收風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)可能(neng)發(fa)生的(de)(de)領域(yu)、行業、納稅(shui)(shui)人及(ji)具體的(de)(de)稅(shui)(shui)收風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)發(fa)生環(huan)節，為稅(shui)(shui)務(wu)機關(guan)實施風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)控制和(he)排查給出明確的(de)(de)指(zhi)向目標的(de)(de)過程，是(shi)技術層面的(de)(de)基礎環(huan)節，也是(shi)稅(shui)(shui)收風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)理的(de)(de)核心環(huan)節。稅(shui)(shui)收風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)分(fen)析識(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)的(de)(de)基礎是(shi)采(cai)集有關(guan)涉稅(shui)(shui)信息數據，運(yun)用相(xiang)關(guan)數理 統計和(he)技術方(fang)法分(fen)析識(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)，發(fa)現導致(zhi)潛(qian)在稅(shui)(shui)收流(liu)失損失的(de)(de)各種風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)因(yin)素、風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)表現及(ji)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)區(qu)域(yu)和(he)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)點。

3.稅收風(feng)險(xian)的(de)等(deng)級排(pai)(pai)序(xu)。對風(feng)險(xian)發生的(de)概(gai)率(lv)和(he)風(feng)險(xian)損失程度進行分(fen)(fen)析、判斷和(he)評價(jia)，確定(ding)稅收風(feng)險(xian)等(deng)級，進行風(feng)險(xian)等(deng)級的(de)高低排(pai)(pai)序(xu)，并進行風(feng)險(xian)預警(jing)提(ti)示和(he)信(xin)息，對不同程度的(de)納稅人和(he)風(feng)險(xian)實施分(fen)(fen)類預警(jing)提(ti)示關(guan)注的(de)管(guan)理過(guo)程。

4.稅(shui)(shui)收(shou)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險的(de)應對(dui)(dui)處理。風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險應對(dui)(dui)環節(jie)是(shi)對(dui)(dui)稅(shui)(shui)收(shou)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險分(fen)(fen)析預警監控(kong)的(de)稅(shui)(shui)收(shou)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險信息作(zuo)出及時有(you)效(xiao)應對(dui)(dui)和(he)控(kong)制的(de)管(guan)理環節(jie)，是(shi)稅(shui)(shui)收(shou)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險管(guan)理的(de)關鍵環節(jie)，對(dui)(dui)稅(shui)(shui)收(shou)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險的(de)及時有(you)效(xiao)控(kong)制和(he)降(jiang)低起著至關重要的(de)作(zuo)用(yong)。稅(shui)(shui)務機關根據風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險等(deng)(deng)級(ji)(ji)，合理配置(zhi)征管(guan)資源，選(xuan)擇分(fen)(fen)類應對(dui)(dui)處置(zhi)的(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險應對(dui)(dui)策略，對(dui)(dui)無風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險和(he)低風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險的(de)納(na)稅(shui)(shui)人采取(qu)優化納(na)稅(shui)(shui)服(fu)(fu)務和(he)納(na)稅(shui)(shui)輔導(dao)、風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險提醒(xing)等(deng)(deng)服(fu)(fu)務方式(shi)(shi)；對(dui)(dui)中等(deng)(deng)偏高(gao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險等(deng)(deng)級(ji)(ji)的(de)納(na)稅(shui)(shui)人實(shi)施案(an)頭審核分(fen)(fen)析和(he)稅(shui)(shui)務約談等(deng)(deng)方式(shi)(shi)；對(dui)(dui)高(gao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險納(na)稅(shui)(shui)人采取(qu)稅(shui)(shui)務檢查(cha)或(huo)立案(an)稽查(cha)等(deng)(deng)方式(shi)(shi)，進行風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險應對(dui)(dui)。隨著稅(shui)(shui)收(shou)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險等(deng)(deng)級(ji)(ji)的(de)提高(gao)，風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險應對(dui)(dui)控(kong)制逐漸由優化服(fu)(fu)務到(dao)輔導(dao)，由柔性管(guan)理到(dao)監控(kong)管(guan)理，最(zui)后到(dao)剛性執法。

5.稅(shui)收(shou)風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)的(de)績(ji)(ji)效(xiao)評(ping)價(jia)。稅(shui)收(shou)風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)的(de)績(ji)(ji)效(xiao)評(ping)價(jia)是稅(shui)收(shou)風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)流程(cheng)的(de)最(zui)后管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)階段(duan)，是基于稅(shui)收(shou)風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)的(de)目標(biao)(biao)，通過(guo)建立(li)科(ke)學(xue)有效(xiao)的(de)績(ji)(ji)效(xiao)考(kao)核評(ping)價(jia)標(biao)(biao)準和機制對稅(shui)收(shou)風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)運行過(guo)程(cheng)和工作結果的(de)質(zhi)量和效(xiao)率進行全面(mian)總結評(ping)價(jia)、考(kao)核激勵的(de)階段(duan)。科(ke)學(xue)的(de)績(ji)(ji)效(xiao)評(ping)價(jia)可以(yi)為稅(shui)收(shou)風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)效(xiao)能(neng)的(de)持(chi)續提升和優化完善(shan)，提供有效(xiao)的(de)激勵、信息(xi)反饋和決策(ce)支(zhi)持(chi)。

五、國內外稅收風(feng)險管理探(tan)索(suo)與研究綜述

（一）稅收風險管理的(de)國際成果(guo)與(yu)經驗

1．打破(po)行政屬地限(xian)制，對組織機(ji)構(gou)進行扁平化、專業(ye)化分(fen)類(lei)設(she)置(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)。美(mei)國(guo)(guo)國(guo)(guo)內收(shou)(shou)入(ru)署在(zai)(zai)1998年的(de)《聯邦(bang)稅(shui)務重構(gou)與改革法》確定了美(mei)國(guo)(guo)聯邦(bang)稅(shui)務局(ju)的(de)新組織結構(gou)，改變過去“一刀切”的(de)機(ji)構(gou)設(she)置(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)和(he)管(guan)理模(mo)式(shi)，機(ji)構(gou)設(she)置(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)層級少，扁平化和(he)專業(ye)化，管(guan)理模(mo)式(shi)和(he)資(zi)源配置(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)趨(qu)于集約化。首先(xian)是按納稅(shui)人的(de)規模(mo)類(lei)型、性(xing)質和(he)特(te)點進行科學分(fen)類(lei)，在(zai)(zai)全國(guo)(guo)設(she)置(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)四個稅(shui)收(shou)(shou)征收(shou)(shou)管(guan)理業(ye)務部門(men)。其次突出對大(da)企業(ye)遵從風(feng)險集約化管(guan)理，加大(da)管(guan)理資(zi)源的(de)配置(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)力(li)度，優(you)先(xian)配置(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)高級管(guan)理人員，為納稅(shui)人提供多(duo)種專業(ye)納稅(shui)服務。體現(xian)了把有(you)限(xian)優(you)質征管(guan)資(zi)源優(you)先(xian)配置(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)在(zai)(zai)規模(mo)大(da)、風(feng)險大(da)的(de)區(qu)域的(de)稅(shui)收(shou)(shou)風(feng)險管(guan)理的(de)理念。

2．涉(she)(she)(she)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)管(guan)理(li)水(shui)平高(gao)，信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)用制(zhi)度(du)成熟。歐盟(meng)委員會和oecd成員國(guo)普(pu)遍推行納稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)人(ren)登(deng)(deng)記編碼制(zhi)度(du)，納稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)人(ren)的(de)(de)(de)一切涉(she)(she)(she)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)事宜均(jun)通(tong)過稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)務代碼辦(ban)理(li)，并通(tong)過稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)務代碼運(yun)用計(ji)算機(ji)信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)系統(tong)(tong)監控(kong)(kong)管(guan)理(li)其所(suo)有(you)涉(she)(she)(she)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)及信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)用記錄。美(mei)國(guo)國(guo)內(nei)收入(ru)局利用統(tong)(tong)一的(de)(de)(de)社會安全(quan)號碼，通(tong)過計(ji)算機(ji)信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)系統(tong)(tong)對納稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)人(ren)進行登(deng)(deng)記和涉(she)(she)(she)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)數據監控(kong)(kong)管(guan)理(li)，涉(she)(she)(she)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)的(de)(de)(de)來源(yuan)(yuan)渠道廣泛、豐富并較真(zhen)實。此外(wai)，oecd國(guo)家普(pu)遍制(zhi)定(ding)(ding)了(le)針(zhen)對涉(she)(she)(she)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)報告(gao)的(de)(de)(de)法律(lv)制(zhi)度(du)，為稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)務機(ji)關獲取第(di)三(san)方信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)提(ti)(ti)供(gong)強有(you)力的(de)(de)(de)法律(lv)保障(zhang)。美(mei)國(guo)國(guo)內(nei)收入(ru)法，詳細規定(ding)(ding)了(le)幾乎(hu)所(suo)有(you)主體在內(nei)的(de)(de)(de)源(yuan)(yuan)頭信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)報送義務。這些規定(ding)(ding)有(you)效解(jie)決(jue)了(le)征納雙方信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)不對稱(cheng)問題，為遵從風險管(guan)理(li)提(ti)(ti)供(gong)了(le)豐富的(de)(de)(de)、高(gao)質(zhi)量的(de)(de)(de)基礎涉(she)(she)(she)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)數據資源(yuan)(yuan)。

3.計算機(ji)信(xin)息網(wang)絡及(ji)量化管(guan)(guan)理技(ji)術發達。發達國(guo)家通常建立由全(quan)國(guo)統一規范的(de)先進計算機(ji)征(zheng)管(guan)(guan)信(xin)息技(ji)術系統，并由國(guo)家層面(mian)主導(dao)，實現跨區(qu)域(yu)、跨部(bu)門的(de)系統聯網(wang)，將稅(shui)務部(bu)門的(de)征(zheng)管(guan)(guan)手段延伸到國(guo)家的(de)各個領域(yu)，與銀行(xing)、保(bao)險、海關等(deng)部(bu)門實時傳輸、共享各種涉稅(shui)信(xin)息數據，交(jiao)叉比對稽核(he)，為稅(shui)收(shou)風險管(guan)(guan)理全(quan)程提(ti)供科學規范、優質高效的(de)信(xin)息源。

4．風險管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)流(liu)程設計標準化。oecd成員國稅(shui)收(shou)風險管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)基本上分為四個階段：一是(shi)制定規(gui)劃(hua)及相關制度和標準；二是(shi)運用涉(she)稅(shui)信(xin)息進行風險分析(xi)識別、等級(ji)排序；三是(shi)風險應對處理(li)；四是(shi)風險管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)的績(ji)效評價(jia)，四個階段形成一個周期(qi)性的閉環。

美國國內(nei)收(shou)入署建(jian)立了(le)相對(dui)公平、穩定的(de)全國性(xing)(xing)長期納(na)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)遵(zun)從風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評定預警監測(ce)系統(tong)，該系統(tong)依據(ju)美國稅(shui)(shui)(shui)制體系建(jian)立了(le)量(liang)化的(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)模型，其中以(yi)“判別(bie)函(han)數工作量(liang)選擇(ze)模型”為代表。以(yi)納(na)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)申(shen)報表信息為基(ji)礎，涵(han)蓋大量(liang)第三方信息，實(shi)現(xian)綜(zong)合采(cai)集、加工、比對(dui)、測(ce)算(suan)，識別(bie)監測(ce)納(na)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)人(ren)遵(zun)從風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)發生的(de)概率及(ji)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)程度(du)，對(dui)納(na)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)人(ren)申(shen)報表進行量(liang)化測(ce)度(du)，評出(chu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)分值(zhi)，由計算(suan)機篩選出(chu)10%風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)程度(du)高的(de)納(na)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)人(ren)作為稽查對(dui)象。系統(tong)結合當(dang)年(nian)經濟發展、物價及(ji)薪資水平等(deng)因(yin)素不(bu)斷優化改進、調(diao)整完(wan)善，具有(you)有(you)效性(xing)(xing)、公平性(xing)(xing)和權威性(xing)(xing)。

5．分類設置(zhi)(zhi)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)應對(dui)形(xing)式。oecd成員國風(feng)(feng)險(xian)應對(dui)處理(li)的(de)特點是改變(bian)對(dui)不遵從(cong)(cong)(cong)的(de)納(na)稅人一律從(cong)(cong)(cong)嚴懲處的(de)傳統應對(dui)策略(lve)，根(gen)據風(feng)(feng)險(xian)類型和風(feng)(feng)險(xian)等級，采取差別化(hua)、針對(dui)性的(de)分類處置(zhi)(zhi)和干預措施，建立了多元化(hua)的(de)遵從(cong)(cong)(cong)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)分類應對(dui)控制管理(li)體系。

澳大利亞建立了“金字塔”式的風險(xian)應(ying)對處置(zhi)管理模型，反映了差(cha)別化、遞進式遵從風險(xian)分類應(ying)對控(kong)制體系。

美國國內收(shou)入(ru)署把“服務+執法=納稅(shui)(shui)遵從”確定為稅(shui)(shui)務機關(guan)的(de)戰略目標，也(ye)運用了(le)(le)“金字塔”式(shi)的(de)風險應對(dui)模(mo)式(shi)，通(tong)過寬嚴相濟的(de)遞進式(shi)風險防控體系(xi)的(de)建立，有效(xiao)提高了(le)(le)納稅(shui)(shui)滿意度和遵從度。

（二(er)）我國稅收風險管(guan)理(li)的探索與初(chu)步成效(xiao)

1.推(tui)(tui)廣稅(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)理(li)(li)念，統(tong)一思想(xiang)認識。20__年7月召開的(de)(de)(de)(de)全國稅(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)征管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)改(gai)革會議提出(chu)統(tong)一思想(xiang)，凝聚(ju)合力(li)，進(jin)一步(bu)深化(hua)(hua)(hua)稅(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)征管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)改(gai)革。會議指(zhi)出(chu)，“以風(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)為導向，就是要把風(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)貫穿稅(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)征管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)全過程，形成(cheng)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)分(fen)析識別、等級排序、應對處理(li)(li)和績效評(ping)價的(de)(de)(de)(de)閉環系(xi)統(tong)，對不同(tong)稅(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)納稅(shui)(shui)人實施差(cha)異化(hua)(hua)(hua)和遞進(jin)式(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)策略。”在各級領導的(de)(de)(de)(de)積極(ji)倡導和推(tui)(tui)動下，各級稅(shui)(shui)務機關(guan)通過培訓和學(xue)習，對實施稅(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)戰(zhan)略意(yi)義有了較普遍的(de)(de)(de)(de)認識，稅(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)理(li)(li)念共識和組織(zhi)文化(hua)(hua)(hua)初步(bu)形成(cheng)，并(bing)(bing)將稅(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)制度建設、方案設計實踐探索列入稅(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)工作(zuo)重(zhong)點(dian)并(bing)(bing)付諸實施。

2.各地稅(shui)務(wu)機關(guan)積(ji)(ji)極(ji)探(tan)索(suo)稅(shui)收風(feng)(feng)(feng)險管理(li)(li)模(mo)式，風(feng)(feng)(feng)險防控(kong)體系初步(bu)建立。先進稅(shui)源專業化試點地區，積(ji)(ji)極(ji)探(tan)索(suo)，大膽實(shi)踐，取得(de)了(le)可喜的成(cheng)效。安(an)徽國稅(shui)局(ju)搭建全(quan)(quan)省稅(shui)源監控(kong)分析平臺，開發(fa)90個行業稅(shui)收風(feng)(feng)(feng)險模(mo)型(xing)，設置了(le)198項指(zhi)標，通過模(mo)型(xing)工具(ju)進行風(feng)(feng)(feng)險識別和等(deng)級排序，對(dui)每(mei)戶納稅(shui)人自動(dong)生成(cheng)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險識別報(bao)告(gao)，模(mo)型(xing)準確率在(zai)80%左右(you)。江(jiang)蘇國稅(shui)局(ju)開發(fa)并運用(yong)(yong)了(le)集外(wai)部第三方(fang)信息數據(ju)利用(yong)(yong)為一體的稅(shui)源風(feng)(feng)(feng)險監控(kong)管理(li)(li)信息化綜合平臺，全(quan)(quan)面(mian)實(shi)施和推進稅(shui)收風(feng)(feng)(feng)險管理(li)(li)。

3.調整優(you)化(hua)征(zheng)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)資(zi)源(yuan)，明確稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)職(zhi)責。各地(di)(di)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)務(wu)(wu)機(ji)關(guan)根據稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)流程和(he)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等(deng)級(ji)(ji)(ji)程度(du)的不同，重新(xin)配置(zhi)(zhi)征(zheng)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)資(zi)源(yuan)。把稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)職(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)從屬地(di)(di)日常(chang)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)源(yuan)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)職(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)中分(fen)離(li)出(chu)來，實(shi)(shi)施專(zhuan)業(ye)(ye)化(hua)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)。嘗試推(tui)進機(ji)構實(shi)(shi)體化(hua)、扁平(ping)化(hua)，市(shi)（地(di)(di)）、縣(xian)（區）級(ji)(ji)(ji)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)務(wu)(wu)機(ji)關(guan)從以(yi)行(xing)政管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)職(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)為主(zhu)向(xiang)以(yi)直接(jie)承擔稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)源(yuan)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)基 風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)監控(kong)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)為主(zhu)的管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)體制轉(zhuan)變(bian)，設(she)置(zhi)(zhi)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)分(fen)析崗(gang)位(wei)、風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評估崗(gang)位(wei)等(deng)，優(you)化(hua)了(le)崗(gang)位(wei)設(she)置(zhi)(zhi)，將(jiang)最優(you)的征(zheng)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)資(zi)源(yuan)配置(zhi)(zhi)到稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)高(gao)(gao)發地(di)(di)區、行(xing)業(ye)(ye)和(he)企業(ye)(ye)的管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)，一(yi)定程度(du)上(shang)提高(gao)(gao)了(le)市(shi)（地(di)(di)）、縣(xian)（區）級(ji)(ji)(ji)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)務(wu)(wu)機(ji)關(guan)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的控(kong)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力。比如：江蘇國稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)局(ju)探索將(jiang)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)源(yuan)按規模劃分(fen)為大企業(ye)(ye)、中小企業(ye)(ye)和(he)個(ge)體工商戶三類分(fen)級(ji)(ji)(ji)監管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)；青島國稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)局(ju)將(jiang)全市(shi)信息分(fen)析、市(shi)級(ji)(ji)(ji)以(yi)上(shang)重點(dian)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)源(yuan)監控(kong)、高(gao)(gao)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)應(ying)對、跨(kua)區域納稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)評估等(deng)任務(wu)(wu)上(shang)收(shou)(shou)到市(shi)局(ju)，強化(hua)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)源(yuan)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)職(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)。江蘇地(di)(di)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)局(ju)對跨(kua)地(di)(di)區經(jing)營(ying)、行(xing)業(ye)(ye)跨(kua)度(du)大、組織結構復雜的納稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)人，以(yi)省(sheng)、市(shi)機(ji)關(guan)為主(zhu)體，建立協同管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)機(ji)制，實(shi)(shi)施風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)。

六、烏魯木齊市地(di)稅系統(tong)開展稅收(shou)風險(xian)管理的實踐情況

20__年以(yi)來，國家稅(shui)(shui)(shui)務總局(ju)(ju)提(ti)出要樹(shu)立風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)理(li)(li)念，加(jia)強對稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)的識別、排(pai)序，對高風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)點(dian)集(ji)中力(li)量進行處置，以(yi)最大(da)運用(yong)有限征管(guan)(guan)(guan)資源，不斷(duan)降低納(na)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)遵從風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)、減(jian)少稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)流失。烏(wu)魯(lu)木齊市(shi)地(di)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)局(ju)(ju)根據自治區地(di)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)局(ju)(ju)開展稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)試(shi)點(dian)工(gong)作的要求，積(ji)極(ji)推進稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)工(gong)作，集(ji)全(quan)局(ju)(ju)之智，舉全(quan)局(ju)(ju)之力(li)，積(ji)極(ji)助推稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)技(ji)術與業務的融(rong)合，對稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)工(gong)作進行了(le)有益的探索和實踐。

（一(yi)）統一(yi)思想認識，找準(zhun)稅收風(feng)險管理工作的(de)切入點。

烏魯木(mu)齊市(shi)地(di)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)局(ju)緊(jin)密聯系稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)征管(guan)工(gong)作(zuo)實際，圍繞影響稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)征管(guan)工(gong)作(zuo)全局(ju)的主要(yao)矛盾(dun)，充分認識風(feng)險管(guan)理(li)(li)理(li)(li)念(nian)的現實價(jia)值和戰略意義，通過(guo)引入風(feng)險管(guan)理(li)(li)的思(si)想(xiang)、方法、手(shou)段(duan)，來破(po)解(jie)當前稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)管(guan)理(li)(li)中的瓶頸問題。在(zai)烏魯木(mu)齊市(shi)地(di)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)系統(tong)20__年(nian)半(ban)年(nian)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)務工(gong)作(zuo)會(hui)議上，市(shi)局(ju)正是提出(chu)了(le)(le)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)風(feng)險管(guan)理(li)(li)的理(li)(li)念(nian)，明確了(le)(le)今后一(yi)個(ge)時期(qi)構建現代稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)征管(guan)體系的導向(xiang)，同時提出(chu)要(yao)將稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)風(feng)險管(guan)理(li)(li)的理(li)(li)念(nian)和方法貫(guan)穿于稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)征管(guan)的全過(guo)程，統(tong)一(yi)思(si)想(xiang)、凝(ning)聚共識，積極借(jie)鑒國內、區內成(cheng)功做法，勇于實踐(jian)，開(kai)創稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)征管(guan)改革(ge)的新局(ju)面。

（二）建立健(jian)全工(gong)作(zuo)制(zhi)度，使稅(shui)收風險(xian)管(guan)理工(gong)作(zuo)規范(fan)化、標準化運行。

通過對國家稅(shui)(shui)務總局(ju)相關文件的(de)(de)學習(xi)和(he)理(li)解，結合(he)自身稅(shui)(shui)源特點和(he)機構設置情況，制定(ding)下發了《稅(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)風險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)實施意見》，制定(ding)了《稅(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)風險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)辦法(fa)(fa)》、《稅(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)風險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)績效考核(he)辦法(fa)(fa)》等，為風險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)體系的(de)(de)建立奠定(ding)了理(li)論基礎，從而引領各(ge)階段工作(zuo)的(de)(de)順利開展，避(bi)免了工作(zuo)中因(yin)無頭緒(xu)出現雜亂無章的(de)(de)情況，使這項(xiang)探索(suo)性的(de)(de)新工作(zuo)有章可循。同時(shi)制定(ding)了《烏魯木齊市稅(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)保障辦法(fa)(fa)》，明確了相關部(bu)門(men)的(de)(de)協稅(shui)(shui)職(zhi)責和(he)涉稅(shui)(shui)信(xin)息(xi)交換共(gong)享(xiang)機制，為稅(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)風險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)及時(shi)準確地獲取第三方(fang)信(xin)息(xi)提供了制度保證(zheng)。

（三）開展多層(ceng)次培(pei)訓，提高宣(xuan)傳效果，突出實用(yong)性(xing)。

烏(wu)魯木齊(qi)市(shi)地稅(shui)局(ju)區(qu)分不同對(dui)象(xiang)，開展(zhan)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian) 管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)理(li)(li)(li)論(lun)(lun)原理(li)(li)(li)和(he)(he)實(shi)(shi)踐應(ying)用知識(shi)培(pei)訓(xun)(xun)(xun)。20__年11月(yue)(yue)，在(zai)全市(shi)局(ju)范圍內(nei)抽調(diao)綜合素(su)質強的(de)(de)業務骨干(gan)，組成稅(shui)收(shou)(shou)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)團(tuan)隊，全面深入地學習(xi)研(yan)究國內(nei)外稅(shui)收(shou)(shou)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)理(li)(li)(li)論(lun)(lun)和(he)(he)實(shi)(shi)踐經驗，形成了(le)對(dui)稅(shui)收(shou)(shou)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)系統的(de)(de)科學認(ren)識(shi)，進一(yi)步調(diao)研(yan)實(shi)(shi)踐和(he)(he)深入思考；2013年3月(yue)(yue)，利用市(shi)局(ju)中心組學習(xi)的(de)(de)機會(hui)，舉(ju)辦了(le)以(yi)市(shi)局(ju)領(ling)導(dao)、市(shi)局(ju)各職能科室領(ling)導(dao)和(he)(he)各區(qu)（縣(xian)）局(ju)領(ling)導(dao)為對(dui)象(xiang)的(de)(de)專(zhuan)題講座；2013年6月(yue)(yue)，針(zhen)對(dui)各區(qu)（縣(xian)）局(ju)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)分管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)領(ling)導(dao)、風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)應(ying)對(dui)業務骨干(gan)，舉(ju)行(xing)了(le)86人次的(de)(de)實(shi)(shi)踐應(ying)用培(pei)訓(xun)(xun)(xun)；2013年9月(yue)(yue)，針(zhen)對(dui)全市(shi)稅(shui)收(shou)(shou)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)人員的(de)(de)稅(shui)收(shou)(shou)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)視頻培(pei)訓(xun)(xun)(xun)。在(zai)這些培(pei)訓(xun)(xun)(xun)和(he)(he)講座中，我們(men)緊扣(kou)國內(nei)先(xian)行(xing)省市(shi)稅(shui)收(shou)(shou)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)通(tong)行(xing)做(zuo)法和(he)(he)烏(wu)魯木齊(qi)市(shi)地稅(shui)的(de)(de)實(shi)(shi)際情況(kuang)，逐(zhu)一(yi)解答了(le)什(shen)么是稅(shui)收(shou)(shou)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)，為什(shen)么要實(shi)(shi)施稅(shui)收(shou)(shou)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)，如何來實(shi)(shi)施稅(shui)收(shou)(shou)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)等問題。

（四）科(ke)學規劃全面(mian)部署，逐(zhu)步推進(jin)相關工作有序開展。

深(shen)化(hua)行(xing)(xing)業分(fen)析，選取試點(dian)行(xing)(xing)業。對烏魯木齊(qi)市房(fang)地產業、金融業、餐飲業等重點(dian)行(xing)(xing)業進行(xing)(xing)深(shen)入分(fen)析，掌握行(xing)(xing)業經營特(te)點(dian)、稅(shui)源發展(zhan)變化(hua)情(qing)況、涉稅(shui)難點(dian)及(ji)主(zhu)要涉稅(shui)問(wen)題，形成行(xing)(xing)業專項分(fen)析報告。依據行(xing)(xing)業專項分(fen)析情(qing)況，確定房(fang)地產業為稅(shui)收風險管理試點(dian)行(xing)(xing)業。

建(jian)立行業風險指(zhi)(zhi)標，測(ce)算(suan)(suan)(suan)確(que)定預(yu)(yu)(yu)警值。針對試點(dian)(dian)行業特點(dian)(dian)選(xuan)取風險指(zhi)(zhi)標。選(xuan)取了綜合稅(shui)負、收入成本(ben)(ben)彈性、毛利率和連(lian)續三年虧損等指(zhi)(zhi)標，并根據行業財務核算(suan)(suan)(suan)特點(dian)(dian)對指(zhi)(zhi)標的計(ji)算(suan)(suan)(suan)口徑做進一步的修正(zheng)，測(ce)算(suan)(suan)(suan)確(que)定預(yu)(yu)(yu)警值；建(jian)立同業稅(shui)負模(mo)型，選(xuan)取樣(yang)本(ben)(ben)，對試點(dian)(dian)行業的稅(shui)負進行測(ce)算(suan)(suan)(suan)，設置(zhi)預(yu)(yu)(yu)警區(qu)間。

運用多(duo)種風(feng)險識(shi)別(bie)方(fang)(fang)法，鎖定疑點企業(ye)。初步運用決策樹(shu)比(bi)對(dui)分(fen)析(xi)法、財(cai)務指標(biao)比(bi)較(jiao)分(fen)析(xi)法和邏(luo)輯推理法對(dui)試點行業(ye)進行風(feng)險識(shi)別(bie)，通過綜(zong)合(he)應用三種方(fang)(fang)法，利用稅務機關內部數據，發現可能存在的風(feng)險點，確定重點風(feng)險監控企業(ye)。

分(fen)批推送(song)(song)，工作銜接有序(xu)。在試點(dian)(dian)運行(xing)(xing)的(de)基(ji)(ji)(ji)礎(chu)上，烏魯木齊市地稅(shui)(shui)(shui)局(ju)(ju)(ju)將全市的(de)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收風(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)工作作為一項(xiang)日常工作持續開(kai)展起來。自2013年5月以來，按月篩(shai)選風(feng)(feng)險(xian)疑(yi)點(dian)(dian)戶(hu)，并逐月分(fen)批向各區(qu)(qu)（縣）局(ju)(ju)(ju)推送(song)(song)，實施(shi)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)應對(dui)。截至九月底(di)，共(gong)推送(song)(song)5批185戶(hu)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)疑(yi)點(dian)(dian)戶(hu)，其中個體工商(shang)戶(hu)91戶(hu)，企業94戶(hu)，未(wei)清理(li)發(fa)票(piao)5524833份。風(feng)(feng)險(xian)點(dian)(dian)包括綜合稅(shui)(shui)(shui)負(fu)和各稅(shui)(shui)(shui)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)負(fu)偏低(di)、毛利(li)率低(di)于行(xing)(xing)業平均值、發(fa)票(piao)異常、個體建賬戶(hu)未(wei)進行(xing)(xing)匯算清繳、未(wei)按規定核銷發(fa)票(piao)以及百萬元以上大企業涉稅(shui)(shui)(shui)政策漏洞等。市局(ju)(ju)(ju)根據各區(qu)(qu)（縣）局(ju)(ju)(ju)的(de)實際情況，本著不增加基(ji)(ji)(ji)層工作負(fu)擔的(de)原則(ze)，合理(li)安(an)排每(mei)批風(feng)(feng)險(xian)戶(hu)的(de)推送(song)(song)時間與反饋期(qi)限，使工作銜接緊密，有序(xu)進行(xing)(xing)，得(de)到了各區(qu)(qu)（縣）局(ju)(ju)(ju)的(de)大力支持，為今(jin)后(hou)工作的(de)順利(li)開(kai)展奠定了基(ji)(ji)(ji)層基(ji)(ji)(ji)礎(chu)。

實(shi)地評(ping)(ping)估，減少稅(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)流失。鑒于目(mu)前的(de)稅(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)管理(li)(li)信息(xi)技術尚不完善，烏魯木(mu)齊市(shi)地稅(shui)局(ju)推送的(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)應對形式主要是開展納稅(shui)評(ping)(ping)估。要求各區（縣(xian)）局(ju)對風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)應對戶(hu)(hu)在稅(shui)務(wu)約談(tan)的(de)基(ji)礎上(shang)，進行實(shi)地檢查(cha)。由于風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)點明確(que)，納稅(shui)評(ping)(ping)估的(de)質量逐步提(ti)高，稅(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)管理(li)(li)人員對稅(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)管理(li)(li)的(de)認識(shi)程度不斷加深。通過評(ping)(ping)估，截至(zhi)9月底(di)，前四批按期(qi)反饋評(ping)(ping)估結果的(de)有(you)141戶(hu)(hu)，其中：個體(ti)工(gong)商戶(hu)(hu)90戶(hu)(hu)，企(qi)業51戶(hu)(hu)（申請延期(qi)的(de)19戶(hu)(hu)），共查(cha)實(shi)未按規定繳納稅(shui)款17287萬元，清理(li)(li)未驗(yan)銷發票5500910份，成績顯著(zhu)。納稅(shui)評(ping)(ping)估一定程度上(shang)消減了(le)稅(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)，并對類(lei)似征管風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)點起到(dao)了(le)防(fang)范的(de)作用，同時(shi)有(you)別于立(li)案(an)稽查(cha)的(de)柔性執法方式，也提(ti)高了(le)納稅(shui)人的(de)自覺守法意識(shi)，和諧了(le)征納關系。

抽樣(yang)復(fu)(fu)審，復(fu)(fu)審效果(guo)(guo)顯著。烏(wu)魯木齊(qi)市地(di)稅局(ju)根據(ju)(ju)各(ge)區(qu)（縣(xian)(xian)）局(ju)的(de)(de)(de)應對(dui)(dui)反饋(kui)結(jie)果(guo)(guo)，有重點(dian)地(di)開展(zhan)了(le)兩批風險應對(dui)(dui)結(jie)果(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)復(fu)(fu)審工作，對(dui)(dui)風險應對(dui)(dui)過(guo)(guo)程和效果(guo)(guo)進行(xing)了(le)及時有效地(di)控制。組(zu)成4個復(fu)(fu)審小(xiao)組(zu)，對(dui)(dui)應對(dui)(dui)程序和應對(dui)(dui)結(jie)果(guo)(guo)進行(xing)復(fu)(fu)核。截至9月底，共復(fu)(fu)審了(le)17戶(hu)納稅評估(gu)戶(hu)，復(fu)(fu)審率達到24%。通過(guo)(guo)復(fu)(fu)審，查實(shi)增(zeng)加評估(gu)稅款(kuan)1378萬(wan)元(yuan)（不含土(tu)地(di)增(zeng)值稅預征稅款(kuan)16933.42萬(wan)元(yuan)），實(shi)際入庫(ku)941萬(wan)元(yuan)。復(fu)(fu)審過(guo)(guo)程嚴肅細致(zhi)，市局(ju)第一時間將復(fu)(fu)審結(jie)果(guo)(guo)真實(shi)全面地(di)向(xiang)各(ge)區(qu)（縣(xian)(xian)）局(ju)通報，一方面提(ti)高各(ge)區(qu)（縣(xian)(xian)）局(ju)對(dui)(dui)風險應對(dui)(dui)工作的(de)(de)(de)重視(shi)程度(du)，避免(mian)敷衍(yan)塞責情況的(de)(de)(de)發(fa)生；另一方面指出應對(dui)(dui)過(guo)(guo)程中存在的(de)(de)(de)問題、解決的(de)(de)(de)政策依據(ju)(ju)，以(yi)及提(ti)高征管質量的(de)(de)(de)建議等。

測(ce)試軟件，提(ti)高(gao)(gao)識別質量(liang)。2013年(nian)9月1日，區(qu)局委托稅(shui)友軟件集(ji)團股(gu)份(fen)有限(xian)公司開發的新疆(jiang)地(di)稅(shui)系統稅(shui)收(shou)風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)平(ping)臺，正(zheng)式在3個試點城市運行(xing)。先(xian)進的信息(xi)技術(shu)是實(shi)施稅(shui)收(shou)風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)的基(ji)礎(chu)，烏魯(lu)木(mu)齊市地(di)稅(shui)局高(gao)(gao)度重視(shi)此(ci)項(xiang)工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)，對(dui)(dui)(dui)區(qu)局提(ti)供(gong)的34個模型(xing)(xing)一(yi)一(yi)進行(xing)本地(di)化(hua)測(ce)試。對(dui)(dui)(dui)可用模型(xing)(xing)，構建(jian)掃描(miao)(miao)方案，實(shi)施全面風(feng)險(xian)掃描(miao)(miao)，監控掃描(miao)(miao)結(jie)果，結(jie)合人(ren)(ren)工(gong)篩選后，作(zuo)(zuo)為下一(yi)期的風(feng)險(xian)推送對(dui)(dui)(dui)象(xiang)；對(dui)(dui)(dui)不適用模型(xing)(xing)，結(jie)合本地(di)稅(shui)收(shou)征管(guan)(guan)實(shi)際情況，進行(xing)從指標(biao)元到模型(xing)(xing)算(suan)法的重新分(fen)(fen)析構建(jian)。在此(ci)基(ji)礎(chu)上，發揮市局人(ren)(ren)力(li)資源的作(zuo)(zuo)用，努力(li)構建(jian)新的適用性強(qiang)的分(fen)(fen)析模型(xing)(xing)，并鼓(gu)勵各區(qu)（縣）局提(ti)供(gong)更加切合征管(guan)(guan)實(shi)際的分(fen)(fen)析模型(xing)(xing)，充(chong)分(fen)(fen)發揮稅(shui)收(shou)風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)平(ping)臺強(qiang) 大的分(fen)(fen)析識別功(gong)能(neng)，提(ti)高(gao)(gao)識別質量(liang)。

七、烏魯木齊(qi)市(shi)稅收風險(xian)管理實(shi)踐中(zhong)存(cun)在的問(wen)題及對策

（一）存在的問題

盡管稅收風險管理(li)在烏魯木齊實(shi)踐中取得了初步(bu)成效(xiao)，但由于(yu)征管理(li)念、經(jing)濟環(huan)境、法(fa)律制度(du)、社會信用體系(xi)發(fa)展及計算機(ji)信息技術發(fa)展程度(du)，導致在思想(xiang)認識、理(li)論體系(xi)、組(zu)織(zhi)體系(xi)保(bao)障、資源配置、稅收風險的流程化(hua)管理(li)、立法(fa)保(bao)障建(jian)設、基礎數據質(zhi)量，風險分析監控及應用技術開發(fa)、風險的差別化(hua)有(you)效(xiao)應對等方面尚存在許多(duo)瓶頸(jing)需要破解(jie)，很多(duo)難題需要探索(suo)和研究解(jie)決(jue)。

1.稅(shui)(shui)收風險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)理(li)(li)(li)(li)念尚(shang)未形成(cheng)普遍(bian)共識(shi)，思想認識(shi)有(you)待(dai)進一步深化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)。目(mu)前，在烏(wu)魯木(mu)齊的(de)(de)(de)(de)稅(shui)(shui)收征(zheng)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)實踐(jian)中很(hen)多(duo)工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)還是遵(zun)循傳(chuan)統治(zhi)稅(shui)(shui)理(li)(li)(li)(li)念，不(bu)(bu)論(lun)是否存(cun)在實際稅(shui)(shui)收風險(xian)(xian)都(dou)視(shi)為有(you)風險(xian)(xian)，不(bu)(bu)論(lun)風險(xian)(xian)等級大小都(dou)實施(shi)無(wu)差(cha)別的(de)(de)(de)(de)統一管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)，征(zheng)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)力(li)量(liang)偏重于事后全(quan)面(mian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)無(wu)差(cha)別控管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)，沒(mei)有(you)實施(shi)差(cha)別化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)針(zhen)對性的(de)(de)(de)(de)服務(wu)與管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)——對無(wu)風險(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)納(na)(na)稅(shui)(shui)人(ren)(ren)優化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)納(na)(na)稅(shui)(shui)服務(wu)，對風險(xian)(xian)較高的(de)(de)(de)(de)納(na)(na)稅(shui)(shui)人(ren)(ren)加(jia)強管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)，不(bu)(bu)僅(jin)未能(neng)有(you)效促進納(na)(na)稅(shui)(shui)遵(zun)從(cong)和(he)全(quan)面(mian)控制稅(shui)(shui)收風險(xian)(xian)，反而造成(cheng)了征(zheng)納(na)(na)成(cheng)本居高不(bu)(bu)下(xia)，納(na)(na)稅(shui)(shui)人(ren)(ren)滿(man)意度不(bu)(bu)高，征(zheng)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)質量(liang)效率偏低。近年來(lai)烏(wu)魯木(mu)齊市地稅(shui)(shui)局按照“重點(dian)稅(shui)(shui)源(yuan)專業化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)，一般稅(shui)(shui)源(yuan)標準(zhun)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)，零散稅(shui)(shui)源(yuan)社會化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)”的(de)(de)(de)(de)原則開展了稅(shui)(shui)源(yuan)專業化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)，逐步將由(you)納(na)(na)稅(shui)(shui)人(ren)(ren)發起的(de)(de)(de)(de)稅(shui)(shui)務(wu)事項(xiang)交由(you)辦稅(shui)(shui)服務(wu)廳處理(li)(li)(li)(li)，由(you)稅(shui)(shui)務(wu)機關發起的(de)(de)(de)(de)稅(shui)(shui)收管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)事項(xiang)由(you)稅(shui)(shui)務(wu)所(suo)承擔，實現管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)事與管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)戶相分(fen)離，符合“服務(wu)+執法(fa)=納(na)(na)稅(shui)(shui)遵(zun)從(cong)”的(de)(de)(de)(de)治(zhi)稅(shui)(shui)理(li)(li)(li)(li)念。但是，在稅(shui)(shui)源(yuan)專業化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)過程中沒(mei)有(you)突出風險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)導向作(zuo)(zuo)用(yong)，傳(chuan)統的(de)(de)(de)(de)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)方(fang)法(fa)仍(reng)然以“責任(ren)+經(jing)驗”為主(zhu)，沒(mei)有(you)實行(xing)針(zhen)對性、差(cha)別化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)分(fen)類(lei)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)和(he)服務(wu)，管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)層次(ci)較低。

2.征(zheng)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)資源配置(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)有(you)待進(jin)一步優(you)(you)化(hua)(hua)。在(zai)機構(gou)設(she)置(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)、征(zheng)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)模(mo)(mo)式和(he)(he)人力(li)資源結構(gou)上尚未樹立(li)起 “管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)有(you)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)納稅(shui)人，服務(wu)無風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)納稅(shui)人” 的(de)(de)(de)理(li)(li)(li)(li)念(nian)。一方面，受(shou)現有(you)機構(gou)設(she)置(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)、征(zheng)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)模(mo)(mo)式和(he)(he)人力(li)資源結構(gou)等瓶頸(jing)因素影(ying)響，未能按照稅(shui)收(shou)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)理(li)(li)(li)(li)念(nian)和(he)(he)要求科學合(he)(he)理(li)(li)(li)(li)設(she)置(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)機構(gou)，明(ming)確(que)崗位職(zhi)責(ze)；沒有(you)做到人盡其才(cai)(cai)，把適合(he)(he)的(de)(de)(de)人放在(zai)適合(he)(he)的(de)(de)(de)稅(shui)收(shou)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)崗位上，把優(you)(you)秀(xiu)的(de)(de)(de)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)人才(cai)(cai)優(you)(you)先配置(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)在(zai)技(ji)術性(xing)業(ye)(ye)務(wu)性(xing)比較(jiao)強的(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)分(fen)析(xi)監(jian)控(kong)和(he)(he)稅(shui)收(shou)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)大的(de)(de)(de)區(qu)域行業(ye)(ye)控(kong)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)，實行征(zheng)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)資源的(de)(de)(de)優(you)(you)化(hua)(hua)合(he)(he)理(li)(li)(li)(li)配置(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)和(he)(he)有(you)效激(ji)勵，稅(shui)務(wu)人員(yuan)實施稅(shui)收(shou)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)積極性(xing)和(he)(he)創新性(xing)不(bu)(bu)高，風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)質(zhi)效偏(pian)低。另一方面，資源配置(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)偏(pian)重行政(zheng)(zheng)和(he)(he)業(ye)(ye)務(wu)審批事(shi)項管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)，行政(zheng)(zheng)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)人員(yuan)、政(zheng)(zheng)策法規人員(yuan)過多，而一線(xian)稅(shui)收(shou)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)人員(yuan)不(bu)(bu)足，尤其高層次(ci)、復合(he)(he)型管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)人才(cai)(cai)更多處于行政(zheng)(zheng)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)崗位，不(bu)(bu)承(cheng)擔稅(shui)收(shou)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)具體職(zhi)責(ze)，導致人才(cai)(cai)不(bu)(bu)足，風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)分(fen)析(xi)識別和(he)(he)應對控(kong)制(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)資源配置(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)在(zai)數量和(he)(he)質(zhi)量上都無法滿足實際需要。

3.信(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)(xi)管(guan)(guan)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)對(dui)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)支(zhi)撐力(li)有(you)待于(yu)進一(yi)步加大。首先(xian)，信(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)(xi)管(guan)(guan)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)理念(nian)尚(shang)未(wei)形成(cheng)普遍共識(shi)。很多稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)務(wu)(wu)管(guan)(guan)理人(ren)(ren)員沒(mei)有(you)從思想(xiang)上認識(shi)到信(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)(xi)管(guan)(guan)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)要性(xing)(xing)(xing)，征(zheng)(zheng)管(guan)(guan)力(li)量(liang)偏重(zhong)于(yu)對(dui)納稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)人(ren)(ren)下戶管(guan)(guan)理、實(shi)(shi)施稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)務(wu)(wu)檢查(cha)或稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)務(wu)(wu)稽查(cha)，缺(que)乏(fa)廣泛利(li)用(yong)涉稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)信(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)(xi)對(dui)納稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)人(ren)(ren)實(shi)(shi)施針對(dui)性(xing)(xing)(xing)和(he)有(you)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)性(xing)(xing)(xing)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理。其次(ci)，信(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)(xi)采集的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)質(zhi)量(liang)不(bu)高。受(shou)制(zhi)于(yu)交易信(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)(xi)報(bao)送(song)義務(wu)(wu)等(deng)(deng)(deng)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收征(zheng)(zheng)管(guan)(guan)立法的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)局(ju)限(xian)，稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)務(wu)(wu)機關能(neng)采集到的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)信(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)(xi)數(shu)(shu)據質(zhi)量(liang)不(bu)高，納稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)人(ren)(ren)申報(bao)信(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)(xi)數(shu)(shu)據真實(shi)(shi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)較差。稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)務(wu)(wu)機關采集信(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)(xi)渠道(dao)范(fan)圍狹窄，信(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)(xi)量(liang)不(bu)足(zu)，及時性(xing)(xing)(xing)和(he)有(you)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)性(xing)(xing)(xing)不(bu)強。對(dui)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析影(ying)響(xiang)至關重(zhong)要的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)物流、資(zi)金流等(deng)(deng)(deng)信(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)(xi)數(shu)(shu)據無(wu)法真實(shi)(shi)取(qu)得(de)，政府部(bu)門的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)第(di)三方信(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)(xi)共享度不(bu)高，直(zhi)接(jie)影(ying)響(xiang)了(le)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)工作質(zhi)量(liang)。比(bi)如烏魯木齊市地稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)局(ju)雖(sui)然制(zhi)定(ding)了(le)《烏魯木齊市稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收保障辦法》，但在(zai)實(shi)(shi)踐中第(di)三方信(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)(xi)卻不(bu)能(neng)順(shun)利(li)有(you)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)取(qu)得(de)。再(zai)次(ci)，風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析監控信(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)(xi)技術平臺的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)開發和(he)數(shu)(shu)據集中整合水平不(bu)高，缺(que)乏(fa)有(you)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)整合和(he)綜合利(li)用(yong)。雖(sui)然目前自治區(qu)地稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)局(ju)開發的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理平臺，理論上可以完成(cheng)涉稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)信(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)(xi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)全面集中分(fen)(fen)(fen)析，但部(bu)分(fen)(fen)(fen)征(zheng)(zheng)管(guan)(guan)數(shu)(shu)據卻無(wu)法有(you)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)提取(qu)，比(bi)如第(di)一(yi)分(fen)(fen)(fen)局(ju)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)契稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)數(shu)(shu)據，稽查(cha)局(ju)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)稽查(cha)數(shu)(shu)據等(deng)(deng)(deng)；最后，由(you)于(yu)現有(you)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)典型案例和(he)行業(ye)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理模型數(shu)(shu)量(liang)不(bu)足(zu)，指導(dao)性(xing)(xing)(xing)差，缺(que)乏(fa)科學完善的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)指標和(he)預(yu)(yu)警(jing)參(can)數(shu)(shu)、風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)權重(zhong)體系，現有(you)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)相關預(yu)(yu)警(jing)參(can)數(shu)(shu)缺(que)乏(fa)實(shi)(shi)踐的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)檢驗和(he)修正(zheng)調整，應(ying)用(yong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)較差，分(fen)(fen)(fen)析識(shi)別(bie)算法單一(yi)等(deng)(deng)(deng)，直(zhi)接(jie)影(ying)響(xiang)了(le)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析識(shi)別(bie)、風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等(deng)(deng)(deng)級(ji)測度排(pai)序(xu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)準確性(xing)(xing)(xing)和(he)有(you)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)性(xing)(xing)(xing)，進而影(ying)響(xiang)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)收風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)質(zhi)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)。目前，自治區(qu)地稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)局(ju)僅提供了(le)34個簡單模型，沒(mei)有(you)形成(cheng)完整的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)典型案例，也未(wei)建(jian)立起專業(ye)化的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)行業(ye)模型，預(yu)(yu)警(jing)參(can)數(shu)(shu)設置(zhi)不(bu)盡科學，應(ying)用(yong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)差。

（二）對現階段實施風險管理(li)的思考和建議

1.進一步強化和(he)(he)深化稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)理(li)(li)(li)(li)念(nian)。把(ba)全面(mian)實施稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)提(ti)(ti)升到戰略高度，把(ba)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)的理(li)(li)(li)(li)念(nian)和(he)(he)方法(fa)貫穿于稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)征(zheng)管(guan)(guan)的全過程，通過有效(xiao)(xiao)的稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)過程和(he)(he)科學方法(fa)，提(ti)(ti)高稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)征(zheng)管(guan)(guan)質效(xiao)(xiao)。要廣泛宣傳(chuan)，全面(mian)組織學習(xi)，激勵(li)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)務人(ren)員牢(lao)固樹立(li)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)理(li)(li)(li)(li)念(nian)，明(ming)確(que)共同(tong)愿景，在(zai)(zai)思想上統一認(ren)識，在(zai)(zai)行(xing)動上積極(ji)踐行(xing)。鼓勵(li)和(he)(he)激勵(li)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)務人(ren)員在(zai)(zai)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)工(gong)作中的首(shou)創(chuang)精(jing)神(shen)和(he)(he)工(gong)作成效(xiao)(xiao)；引導和(he)(he)激勵(li)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)務人(ren)員為實現納稅(shui)(shui)(shui)遵從最(zui)大(da)化、稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)流失最(zui)小化的風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)目標竭誠努力。加強稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)的教育培訓，大(da)力開展稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)理(li)(li)(li)(li)論、稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)分析(xi)預警監控及納稅(shui)(shui)(shui)評估、稅(shui)(shui)(shui)務稽查(cha)等方面(mian)專(zhuan)業(ye)知識和(he)(he)業(ye)務技能(neng)的培訓，廣泛開展技術和(he)(he)經驗交流，提(ti)(ti)升稅(shui)(shui)(shui)務干部隊伍(wu)的稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)理(li)(li)(li)(li)論水平(ping)和(he)(he)專(zhuan)業(ye)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)水平(ping)。

篇9

【關鍵詞】保險公(gong)司 風險導向 內部審計

一、保險公司面臨的主要風險

保(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)公司(si)(si)(si)通(tong)常所稱的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，廣義上(shang)講，“任何會(hui)妨礙企業(ye)實(shi)現其(qi)目標的(de)(de)(de)(de)因素①”都歸(gui)屬(shu)于(yu)(yu)公司(si)(si)(si)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)范疇。風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)有許多種分(fen)類(lei)方式，綜合國內(nei)外對(dui)于(yu)(yu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)分(fen)類(lei)，結(jie)合保(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)特點，本(ben)文按照風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)驅動因素，將保(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)公司(si)(si)(si)在經營過程中面(mian)臨的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)分(fen)為市(shi)(shi)場風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、信(xin)用風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、保(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、操(cao)作風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)和(he)戰略風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)五(wu)大類(lei)。其(qi)中市(shi)(shi)場風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)是指(zhi)由(you)于(yu)(yu)利率、匯(hui)率、權(quan)益類(lei)資產(chan)價格和(he)不(bu)(bu)動產(chan)價格等(deng)市(shi)(shi)場價格的(de)(de)(de)(de)不(bu)(bu)利變(bian)動而(er)造成(cheng)損(sun)失(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)可(ke)能(neng)(neng)性；信(xin)用風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，是指(zhi)由(you)于(yu)(yu)債務人或(huo)者交(jiao)易(yi)對(dui)手不(bu)(bu)能(neng)(neng)履行(xing)(xing)合同義務，或(huo)者信(xin)用狀況的(de)(de)(de)(de)不(bu)(bu)利變(bian)動而(er)造成(cheng)損(sun)失(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)可(ke)能(neng)(neng)性；保(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)是指(zhi)由(you)于(yu)(yu)對(dui)死亡(wang)率、疾病率、賠(pei)付率、退保(bao)率等(deng)經驗假設與實(shi)際情況發(fa)生偏離(li)導致產(chan)品(pin)定價錯(cuo)誤或(huo)者準備金提取不(bu)(bu)足，再(zai)保(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)安排不(bu)(bu)當，非預期重大理賠(pei)等(deng)造成(cheng)損(sun)失(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)可(ke)能(neng)(neng)性；操(cao)作風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)是指(zhi)由(you)于(yu)(yu)操(cao)作流(liu)程不(bu)(bu)完善、人為過錯(cuo)和(he)信(xin)息系統故障等(deng)原(yuan)因造成(cheng)損(sun)失(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)可(ke)能(neng)(neng)性；戰略風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)是指(zhi)由(you)于(yu)(yu)公司(si)(si)(si)治理結(jie)構(gou)不(bu)(bu)完善、決策與實(shi)際狀況相脫節(jie)、行(xing)(xing)業(ye)政策環(huan)境變(bian)動從而(er)導致公司(si)(si)(si)發(fa)展(zhan)方向或(huo)既定目標出現偏誤等(deng)，而(er)對(dui)公司(si)(si)(si)的(de)(de)(de)(de)經營收益造成(cheng)損(sun)失(shi)或(huo)對(dui)可(ke)持(chi)續型價值增長造成(cheng)影響(xiang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)可(ke)能(neng)(neng)性。上(shang)述分(fen)類(lei)主要依據保(bao)監會(hui)的(de)(de)(de)(de)分(fen)類(lei)方法(fa)并界定風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)內(nei)涵。

二、風險(xian)管(guan)理與(yu)內部審計的關系

風(feng)險(xian)管理(li)是一個(ge)過(guo)程，它由公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)董(dong)事會、管理(li)層及其他(ta)人員實施，旨在識別(bie)可能會影響到公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)的(de)潛在風(feng)險(xian)，并管理(li)風(feng)險(xian)至可接(jie)受的(de)水平以(yi)內(nei)，從(cong)而為(wei)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)目標的(de)實現提供合理(li)保證。為(wei)了進(jin)一步促進(jin)保險(xian)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)安全可靠地運營，以(yi)應對公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)面(mian)臨(lin)的(de)主(zhu)要風(feng)險(xian)，就必(bi)須建立一套有效(xiao)的(de)風(feng)險(xian)管理(li)和(he)內(nei)控體系，包(bao)括有效(xiao)的(de)風(feng)險(xian)管理(li)、合規、精算(suan)和(he)內(nei)部審(shen)計制度。

保險公司(si)(si)的(de)(de)各(ge)職能部門應建(jian)立(li)以風(feng)險管(guan)理為中心的(de)(de)三道(dao)防(fang)線(xian)的(de)(de)管(guan)理框架。第(di)一(yi)道(dao)防(fang)線(xian)由(you)(you)各(ge)職能部門和業務單(dan)位組成。在(zai)業務前端識別、評估、應對(dui)、監控與(yu)報告風(feng)險。第(di)二道(dao)防(fang)線(xian)由(you)(you)風(feng)險管(guan)理委(wei)員會和風(feng)險管(guan)理部門組成。綜合協(xie)調制定各(ge)類風(feng)險政策、標準和限額(e)，提出(chu)應對(dui)建(jian)議。第(di)三道(dao)防(fang)線(xian)由(you)(you)審(shen)計委(wei)員會和內部審(shen)計部門組成。針對(dui)公司(si)(si)已經建(jian)立(li)的(de)(de)風(feng)險管(guan)理流(liu)程(cheng)和各(ge)項風(feng)險的(de)(de)控制程(cheng)序和活動進(jin)行監督（鄒斌(bin)，2012）。

三、內部審計全(quan)流程(cheng)以風險為導向的探(tan)索

（一）立項階段

依(yi)據重點風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)進行項(xiang)目(mu)立項(xiang)。審計(ji)指引和項(xiang)目(mu)計(ji)劃(hua)的(de)(de)編制是立項(xiang)階段的(de)(de)兩項(xiang)主(zhu)要工作。在(zai)(zai)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)導向內(nei)部審計(ji)模式(shi)下，需要改變原來依(yi)據審計(ji)偏好、審計(ji)經驗進行簡單判斷的(de)(de)現狀。在(zai)(zai)編制審計(ji)項(xiang)目(mu)計(ji)劃(hua)之前，應結合(he)組織風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)管理目(mu)標(biao)進行年度(du)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)識別和評估，確定關鍵風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)領域，風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)高的(de)(de)領域作為年度(du)審計(ji)計(ji)劃(hua)優先安(an)排的(de)(de)項(xiang)目(mu)。

一是在(zai)編(bian)制(zhi)年度審(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)(ji)指(zhi)(zhi)引(yin)(yin)時，應(ying)根據監管(guan)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)和管(guan)理層的(de)(de)要求，結合(he)以(yi)往審(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)(ji)評估的(de)(de)風(feng)險分(fen)(fen)布(bu)狀況與重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)要內控風(feng)險、非(fei)現(xian)場核實項目(mu)(mu)、需跟蹤(zong)整改(gai)事(shi)項等對專業條(tiao)線、審(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)(ji)區域的(de)(de)風(feng)險分(fen)(fen)布(bu)狀況進(jin)行分(fen)(fen)析、評估，以(yi)便于全面、完整地編(bian)制(zhi)審(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)(ji)指(zhi)(zhi)引(yin)(yin)。專業條(tiao)線審(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)(ji)指(zhi)(zhi)引(yin)(yin)的(de)(de)編(bian)寫應(ying)圍繞審(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)(ji)目(mu)(mu)標，綜合(he)考慮審(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)(ji)項目(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)要性(xing)、工作量、創新性(xing)，以(yi)“監管(guan)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)、公(gong)司管(guan)理重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)、系統性(xing)風(feng)險、高風(feng)險領域、重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)機構、審(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)(ji)創新、審(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)(ji)整改(gai)跟蹤(zong)”七(qi)個要素為審(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)(ji)項目(mu)(mu)立項依據，明確審(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)(ji)項目(mu)(mu)屬性(xing)以(yi)及重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)機構的(de)(de)范(fan)圍，編(bian)制(zhi)審(shen)(shen)計(ji)(ji)(ji)項目(mu)(mu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)劃。

二是(shi)在制定區域(yu)審計項目計劃時(shi)，在進行區域(yu)風(feng)險(xian)分析的(de)基礎(chu)上，將條線(xian)風(feng)險(xian)分析和區域(yu)風(feng)險(xian)分析的(de)交集作為各區域(yu)當期監督的(de)重(zhong)點機構(gou)和重(zhong)點領域(yu)。

三(san)是在進行項目整體統籌時，應(ying)根(gen)據審(shen)計項目的(de)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)等級(ji)等特征確定(ding)審(shen)計項目的(de)分類(lei)和(he)(he)重點項目的(de)數(shu)量占(zhan)比，明確各類(lei)項目的(de)成果(guo)目標；同(tong)時，應(ying)根(gen)據各區(qu)域風險(xian)(xian)(xian)分析結果(guo)確定(ding)不同(tong)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)等級(ji)水平項目的(de)人力資(zi)質和(he)(he)數(shu)量的(de)配備(bei)要求，逐步實現(xian)由“資(zi)源導向(xiang)”向(xiang)“風險(xian)(xian)(xian)導向(xiang)”確定(ding)審(shen)計項目的(de)轉變。

（二）準備階段

準備階(jie)段主(zhu)要(yao)是審(shen)計(ji)(ji)方案的(de)(de)(de)編制，也是實施(shi)風險(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)預(yu)判。該階(jie)段應以(yi)系(xi)統性(xing)風險(xian)(xian)、高風險(xian)(xian)機構(gou)及風險(xian)(xian)性(xing)問(wen)題作(zuo)為(wei)(wei)審(shen)計(ji)(ji)選擇目標，并把被審(shen)計(ji)(ji)機構(gou)的(de)(de)(de)高風險(xian)(xian)領域和(he)環節(jie)作(zuo)為(wei)(wei)審(shen)計(ji)(ji)切入點(dian)，有針對性(xing)地開(kai)展審(shen)計(ji)(ji)工作(zuo)，同時使立項(xiang)的(de)(de)(de)依據(ju)更具說服力(li)，避免立項(xiang)的(de)(de)(de)隨意性(xing)、主(zhu)觀(guan)性(xing)。在風險(xian)(xian)導(dao)(dao)向(xiang)內(nei)部(bu)審(shen)計(ji)(ji)模式(shi)下(xia)，要(yao)根據(ju)保險(xian)(xian)公司(si)“經營成果真實有效性(xing)、經營行為(wei)(wei)合規性(xing)、內(nei)部(bu)控制有效性(xing)”等(deng)特征來確定審(shen)計(ji)(ji)項(xiang)目的(de)(de)(de)重點(dian)和(he)重點(dian)審(shen)計(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)(de)程序，根據(ju)“系(xi)統性(xing)、重要(yao)性(xing)和(he)高風險(xian)(xian)性(xing)”等(deng)風險(xian)(xian)特點(dian)來確定審(shen)計(ji)(ji)人力(li)的(de)(de)(de)分配，采取(qu)非現場(chang)審(shen)計(ji)(ji)和(he)現場(chang)審(shen)計(ji)(ji)相結(jie)合的(de)(de)(de)技術手段，突出對重大風險(xian)(xian)問(wen)題的(de)(de)(de)預(yu)判。準備階(jie)段的(de)(de)(de)風險(xian)(xian)預(yu)判工作(zuo)是風險(xian)(xian)導(dao)(dao)向(xiang)內(nei)部(bu)審(shen)計(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)(de)重心。

1.市場風(feng)險(xian)(xian)預判包括：（1）利率(lv)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)：是(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)具有固定(ding)收(shou)益(yi)類產(chan)品(pin)的(de)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)資(zi)(zi)(zi)質(zhi)；是(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)建立固定(ding)收(shou)益(yi)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)各項(xiang)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)有效(xiao)控制措施；投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)的(de)債(zhai)(zhai)券品(pin)種是(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)符(fu)合(he)(he)(he)監(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)管(guan)(guan)規(gui)(gui)定(ding)；債(zhai)(zhai)券內部(bu)信用評級基本(ben)流程是(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)符(fu)合(he)(he)(he)監(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)管(guan)(guan)要求；存款交(jiao)易(yi)對手是(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)符(fu)合(he)(he)(he)監(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)管(guan)(guan)規(gui)(gui)定(ding)；協議存款投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)是(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)符(fu)合(he)(he)(he)公(gong)司資(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)配置計劃(hua)及相關監(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)管(guan)(guan)要求，等(deng)(deng)(deng)等(deng)(deng)(deng)。（2）權(quan)益(yi)資(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)價格風(feng)險(xian)(xian)：股票(piao)(piao)(piao)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)策略是(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)與(yu)(yu)公(gong)司償付能力狀況相匹(pi)配；股票(piao)(piao)(piao)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)是(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)建立股票(piao)(piao)(piao)池管(guan)(guan)理(li)制度；單筆股票(piao)(piao)(piao)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)是(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)符(fu)合(he)(he)(he)監(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)管(guan)(guan)禁止規(gui)(gui)定(ding)；股票(piao)(piao)(piao)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)相關風(feng)險(xian)(xian)是(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)進(jin)行事前(qian)識別；股票(piao)(piao)(piao)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)是(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)得(de)到(dao)監(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)控，等(deng)(deng)(deng)等(deng)(deng)(deng)。（3）匯率(lv)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)：國際政治經(jing)濟形勢(shi)；大宗商(shang)品(pin)價格，等(deng)(deng)(deng)等(deng)(deng)(deng)。（4）不動產(chan)價格風(feng)險(xian)(xian)：不動產(chan)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)資(zi)(zi)(zi)質(zhi)；投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)范圍、比(bi)例(li)和方式(shi)是(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)符(fu)合(he)(he)(he)監(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)管(guan)(guan)規(gui)(gui)定(ding)/監(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)管(guan)(guan)禁止規(gui)(gui)定(ding)；估值(zhi)是(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)合(he)(he)(he)理(li)，等(deng)(deng)(deng)等(deng)(deng)(deng)。（5）其他金(jin)融(rong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)價格風(feng)險(xian)(xian)：資(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)的(de)收(shou)益(yi)與(yu)(yu)負債(zhai)(zhai)的(de)成本(ben)是(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)匹(pi)配；資(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)的(de)流動性與(yu)(yu)負債(zhai)(zhai)的(de)流動性是(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)匹(pi)配；投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)指引(yin)是(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)有效(xiao)；投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)組合(he)(he)(he)是(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)符(fu)合(he)(he)(he)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)管(guan)(guan)理(li)要求，等(deng)(deng)(deng)等(deng)(deng)(deng)。

2.信(xin)(xin)用風險預判包(bao)括(kuo)：（1）投資(zi)信(xin)(xin)用風險：債務(wu)人或(huo)交易對(dui)手資(zi)信(xin)(xin)狀(zhuang)況(kuang)；擔(dan)保情況(kuang)，等(deng)等(deng)。（2）應收保費(fei)風險：投保人或(huo)中(zhong)介機構資(zi)信(xin)(xin)狀(zhuang)況(kuang)；應收保費(fei)的(de)催收與跟蹤措施是(shi)否(fou)有效，等(deng)等(deng)。（3）再(zai)保險公司(si)資(zi)信(xin)(xin)風險：再(zai)保險接受人資(zi)信(xin)(xin)狀(zhuang)況(kuang)，等(deng)等(deng)。

3.保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)預判包括(kuo)：死亡率風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)、發病率風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)、退保(bao)(bao)率風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)。以上三項(xiang)的風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)預判要點：保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)產品(pin)分(fen)類(lei)是(shi)(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)正(zheng)確；產品(pin)費率是(shi)(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)合(he)(he)(he)規(gui)；保(bao)(bao)單(dan)現(xian)金價值確定(ding)是(shi)(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)規(gui)范；紅利計息期間(jian)是(shi)(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)規(gui)范；條款費率適用是(shi)(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)合(he)(he)(he)規(gui)；產品(pin)組合(he)(he)(he)是(shi)(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)規(gui)范；是(shi)(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)存在違規(gui)承諾；是(shi)(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)支付合(he)(he)(he)同(tong)以外利益(yi)，等等。

4.操作風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險預判(pan)包括：（1）外部事件(jian)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險：應(ying)急預案制定是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)具有(you)(you)可操作性(xing)、熟知(zhi)度，演練是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)有(you)(you)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)，等(deng)(deng)(deng)等(deng)(deng)(deng)。（2）信(xin)息系(xi)統(tong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險：信(xin)息系(xi)統(tong)安全管理是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)有(you)(you)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)；信(xin)息技術(shu)戰略規劃是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)合理可行(xing)；信(xin)息系(xi)統(tong)開發申請及開發流(liu)程(cheng)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)符(fu)合內(nei)控要求；信(xin)息系(xi)統(tong)運維(wei)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)有(you)(you)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)，等(deng)(deng)(deng)等(deng)(deng)(deng)。（3）內(nei)部流(liu)程(cheng)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險內(nei)控體(ti)系(xi)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)健全與合規；制度流(liu)程(cheng)設計是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)合規與合理；制度流(liu)程(cheng)執行(xing)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)有(you)(you)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)，等(deng)(deng)(deng)等(deng)(deng)(deng)。（4）人員風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險：人力資(zi)源政策和(he)制度、激勵約束機制、獎(jiang)懲機制是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)持續和(he)有(you)(you)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)，等(deng)(deng)(deng)等(deng)(deng)(deng)。（5）合規風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險：是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)建立(li)內(nei)控體(ti)系(xi)；是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)對主要控制活動的風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險進行(xing)識別；對關鍵(jian)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險的應(ying)對措施是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)有(you)(you)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)，等(deng)(deng)(deng)等(deng)(deng)(deng)。

5.戰(zhan)略(lve)風(feng)險預判包括：（1）治理結(jie)構(gou)風(feng)險：公司(si)章程(cheng)的執行、修改、報(bao)批是(shi)(shi)否依(yi)法(fa)合規(gui)；股(gu)東及(ji)(ji)其出資是(shi)(shi)否合法(fa)；股(gu)東（大）會是(shi)(shi)否依(yi)法(fa)合規(gui)運作；董(dong)事(shi)、獨立董(dong)事(shi)、監(jian)事(shi)是(shi)(shi)否盡(jin)職(zhi)；董(dong)事(shi)會及(ji)(ji)其下設(she)委員(yuan)會、監(jian)事(shi)會運作和關(guan)聯交易(yi)管(guan)(guan)理、識別、披露等(deng)以(yi)及(ji)(ji)董(dong)、監(jian)、高(gao)任免(mian)薪酬管(guan)(guan)理是(shi)(shi)否規(gui)范，等(deng)等(deng)。（2）戰(zhan)略(lve)及(ji)(ji)決策風(feng)險：是(shi)(shi)否制定了發展戰(zhan)略(lve)的管(guan)(guan)理流程(cheng)；發展戰(zhan)略(lve)實施、達成情況是(shi)(shi)否被恰當(dang)地(di)監(jian)控(kong)和分析，等(deng)等(deng)。（3）政(zheng)策風(feng)險：國內外政(zheng)治、經濟形勢；政(zheng)府的經濟發展規(gui)劃；監(jian)管(guan)(guan)部門(men)的關(guan)注重點，等(deng)等(deng)。

內部(bu)(bu)審計部(bu)(bu)門(men)應當關(guan)注內部(bu)(bu)風(feng)險(xian)下列(lie)因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)素(su)(su)(su)(su)：（1）董事(shi)、監事(shi)、經理及其(qi)(qi)他高級管(guan)理人員的職(zhi)業操守(shou)、員工專業勝(sheng)任能力等(deng)(deng)人力資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)素(su)(su)(su)(su)。（2）組織機構(gou)、經營方式、資(zi)(zi)產管(guan)理、業務(wu)流程等(deng)(deng)管(guan)理因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)素(su)(su)(su)(su)。（3）研究開發(fa)、技術(shu)投入、信息技術(shu)運用等(deng)(deng)自(zi)(zi)主創新因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)素(su)(su)(su)(su)。（4）財務(wu)狀況、經營成果(guo)、現金(jin)流量(liang)等(deng)(deng)財務(wu)因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)素(su)(su)(su)(su)。（5）營運安(an)全(quan)、員工健康(kang)、環(huan)(huan)境保(bao)護等(deng)(deng)安(an)全(quan)環(huan)(huan)保(bao)因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)素(su)(su)(su)(su)。（6）其(qi)(qi)他有關(guan)內部(bu)(bu)風(feng)險(xian)因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)素(su)(su)(su)(su)。對于(yu)屬于(yu)外(wai)部(bu)(bu)風(feng)險(xian)的，應當同時關(guan)注下列(lie)因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)素(su)(su)(su)(su)：（1）經濟形勢、產業政策(ce)、融資(zi)(zi)環(huan)(huan)境、市(shi)場競爭、資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)供給等(deng)(deng)經濟因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)素(su)(su)(su)(su)。（2）法(fa)律(lv)法(fa)規、監管(guan)要求等(deng)(deng)法(fa)律(lv)因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)素(su)(su)(su)(su)。（3）安(an)全(quan)穩定(ding)、文化傳統、社會(hui)信用、教育水(shui)平、消費者行(xing)為等(deng)(deng)社會(hui)因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)素(su)(su)(su)(su)。（4）技術(shu)進步、工藝改(gai)進等(deng)(deng)科學技術(shu)因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)素(su)(su)(su)(su)。（5）自(zi)(zi)然災害、環(huan)(huan)境狀況等(deng)(deng)自(zi)(zi)然環(huan)(huan)境因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)素(su)(su)(su)(su)。（6）其(qi)(qi)他有關(guan)外(wai)部(bu)(bu)風(feng)險(xian)因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)素(su)(su)(su)(su)（喬奕(yi)，2009；馮寬，2012）。

（三）實施階段

主要解決風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)定(ding)性與(yu)定(ding)量判(pan)斷。在風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)導向內(nei)部審計(ji)(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)模式下，風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估應當(dang)采用(yong)定(ding)性與(yu)定(ding)量相結合的(de)(de)(de)(de)方(fang)(fang)(fang)式。定(ding)量評(ping)(ping)(ping)估應當(dang)統(tong)一制(zhi)定(ding)各風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)度(du)量單位和(he)(he)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)度(du)量模型(xing)，確(que)保評(ping)(ping)(ping)估的(de)(de)(de)(de)假設前提、參數(shu)、數(shu)據來源和(he)(he)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估程序的(de)(de)(de)(de)合理性和(he)(he)準(zhun)確(que)性。因(yin)此，本文引入了“審計(ji)(ji)(ji)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)級(ji)(ji)”的(de)(de)(de)(de)設計(ji)(ji)(ji)概念(nian)。審計(ji)(ji)(ji)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)級(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)設計(ji)(ji)(ji)思路是以控制(zhi)為(wei)基(ji)礎，實現控制(zhi)缺(que)陷定(ding)位準(zhun)確(que)、評(ping)(ping)(ping)價內(nei)容(rong)完(wan)整、評(ping)(ping)(ping)價方(fang)(fang)(fang)法(fa)合理，為(wei)開展“以風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)為(wei)導向”的(de)(de)(de)(de)審計(ji)(ji)(ji)提供指導。因(yin)此審計(ji)(ji)(ji)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)級(ji)(ji)應包(bao)括：控制(zhi)矩陣(zhen)、評(ping)(ping)(ping)估矩陣(zhen)、風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)等(deng)級(ji)(ji)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估標準(zhun)、審計(ji)(ji)(ji)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)級(ji)(ji)實施(shi)方(fang)(fang)(fang)法(fa)和(he)(he)內(nei)部控制(zhi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)地(di)圖等(deng)五部分(fen)組成的(de)(de)(de)(de)審計(ji)(ji)(ji)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)級(ji)(ji)框(kuang)架。

1.按(an)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)矩(ju)陣(zhen)解決風險(xian)的(de)(de)定(ding)位(wei)(wei)問題。要(yao)根據各機構(gou)的(de)(de)業務(wu)特性(xing)對(dui)公司所有(you)的(de)(de)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)進(jin)行(xing)了梳(shu)理，按(an)照其(qi)操作(zuo)模式劃(hua)分(fen)出具體的(de)(de)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)活動(dong)(dong)，并(bing)將控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)活動(dong)(dong)中(zhong)的(de)(de)每一(yi)個控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)節點細化(hua)至具體的(de)(de)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)措施，形成以(yi)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)為基礎的(de)(de)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)矩(ju)陣(zhen)，使(shi)公司的(de)(de)所有(you)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)與(yu)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)矩(ju)陣(zhen)之(zhi)間建立起一(yi)一(yi)對(dui)應(ying)的(de)(de)關(guan)系，保證了風險(xian)的(de)(de)位(wei)(wei)置是(shi)唯一(yi)確定(ding)的(de)(de)。當公司業務(wu)發生(sheng)變(bian)化(hua)時(shi)，圍繞該(gai)業務(wu)所實施的(de)(de)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)必然隨之(zhi)產生(sheng)變(bian)動(dong)(dong)，相(xiang)應(ying)的(de)(de)風險(xian)也會(hui)隨著控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)的(de)(de)變(bian)動(dong)(dong)而轉移。此時(shi)只(zhi)需要(yao)將控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)矩(ju)陣(zhen)按(an)照控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)的(de)(de)變(bian)化(hua)進(jin)行(xing)調整，時(shi)刻保證控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)矩(ju)陣(zhen)與(yu)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)之(zhi)間的(de)(de)對(dui)應(ying)關(guan)系，就能夠保證風險(xian)的(de)(de)定(ding)位(wei)(wei)不會(hui)產生(sheng)偏差(cha)。

2.按(an)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)估標準解決單項風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)計量問(wen)題。不同原(yuan)因(yin)(yin)(yin)所產生(sheng)(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)內控風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)，對(dui)公司造成的(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)也有(you)所差異。為(wei)此引入風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)估標準，全(quan)面評(ping)(ping)估風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)，并(bing)綜合(he)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)原(yuan)因(yin)(yin)(yin)對(dui)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)等(deng)級(ji)(ji)進(jin)行評(ping)(ping)估，以解決風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)完整性的(de)(de)(de)(de)問(wen)題。首先，將風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)分(fen)為(wei)財(cai)務影(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)和非(fei)財(cai)務影(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)兩大類(lei)：財(cai)務影(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)中包(bao)含(han)“已(yi)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)或(huo)(huo)潛在(zai)損(sun)失”和“財(cai)務數據(ju)失真”兩項；非(fei)財(cai)務影(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)包(bao)含(han)“聲譽損(sun)失”、“監管風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)”、“員工(gong)隊伍/權利/生(sheng)(sheng)命/健康的(de)(de)(de)(de)傷(shang)害”、“信息(xi)泄(xie)露(lu)”、“對(dui)信息(xi)系統的(de)(de)(de)(de)破(po)壞或(huo)(huo)威脅”和“對(dui)流(liu)程(cheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)范(fan)圍”等(deng)六(liu)項，并(bing)根(gen)據(ju)影(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)程(cheng)度(du)(du)劃分(fen)影(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)等(deng)級(ji)(ji)。其(qi)次，根(gen)據(ju)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)動因(yin)(yin)(yin)，將風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)產生(sheng)(sheng)原(yuan)因(yin)(yin)(yin)分(fen)為(wei)“制(zhi)度(du)(du)設計”、“制(zhi)度(du)(du)”、“制(zhi)度(du)(du)執行”、“人員”和“控制(zhi)固有(you)頻率”等(deng)五項，并(bing)根(gen)據(ju)嚴(yan)(yan)重(zhong)程(cheng)度(du)(du)劃分(fen)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)原(yuan)因(yin)(yin)(yin)等(deng)級(ji)(ji)。在(zai)評(ping)(ping)估風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)等(deng)級(ji)(ji)時，先甄別(bie)所有(you)的(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)類(lei)別(bie)，按(an)照每個影(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)因(yin)(yin)(yin)素的(de)(de)(de)(de)程(cheng)度(du)(du)大小(xiao)分(fen)別(bie)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)相應的(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)程(cheng)度(du)(du)等(deng)級(ji)(ji)，取所有(you)影(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)程(cheng)度(du)(du)中的(de)(de)(de)(de)最高級(ji)(ji)別(bie)作為(wei)該(gai)審(shen)計發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)現(xian)問(wen)題或(huo)(huo)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)程(cheng)度(du)(du)等(deng)級(ji)(ji)；再分(fen)析發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)該(gai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)原(yuan)因(yin)(yin)(yin)，按(an)照其(qi)嚴(yan)(yan)重(zhong)程(cheng)度(du)(du)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)原(yuan)因(yin)(yin)(yin)等(deng)級(ji)(ji)；分(fen)別(bie)得到影(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)程(cheng)度(du)(du)和發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)原(yuan)因(yin)(yin)(yin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)等(deng)級(ji)(ji)后(hou)，綜合(he)評(ping)(ping)估得出該(gai)審(shen)計發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)現(xian)問(wen)題或(huo)(huo)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)等(deng)級(ji)(ji)。

3.用(yong)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)等(deng)級(ji)(ji)評價模型解決風(feng)(feng)險(xian)匯總(zong)計量的問題。通(tong)過審計檢查(cha)，可以得(de)到具體(ti)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)的等(deng)級(ji)(ji)，但風(feng)(feng)險(xian)所處的位(wei)置、風(feng)(feng)險(xian)等(deng)級(ji)(ji)各(ge)不相同，如何(he)將各(ge)個明細控(kong)制(zhi)點的風(feng)(feng)險(xian)等(deng)級(ji)(ji)匯總(zong)轉換成機構(gou)、專業條(tiao)線的風(feng)(feng)險(xian)等(deng)級(ji)(ji)，也是內(nei)控(kong)審計評級(ji)(ji)的重要(yao)內(nei)容。

（1）以重要(yao)性水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)解(jie)決風(feng)(feng)險評價適當的(de)(de)問題。不(bu)(bu)同(tong)(tong)業務規(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)的(de)(de)機(ji)(ji)構(gou)(gou)(gou)，其風(feng)(feng)險承受能力也有所(suo)(suo)(suo)差異。相同(tong)(tong)損失(shi)的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險對于(yu)業務規(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)較(jiao)(jiao)大機(ji)(ji)構(gou)(gou)(gou)的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險等級(ji)(ji)，較(jiao)(jiao)業務規(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)較(jiao)(jiao)小(xiao)機(ji)(ji)構(gou)(gou)(gou)的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險等級(ji)(ji)也有所(suo)(suo)(suo)不(bu)(bu)同(tong)(tong)。為保證(zheng)風(feng)(feng)險衡(heng)量(liang)的(de)(de)適當性，對不(bu)(bu)同(tong)(tong)機(ji)(ji)構(gou)(gou)(gou)設置(zhi)了(le)差異性的(de)(de)重要(yao)性水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)，通過將(jiang)風(feng)(feng)險的(de)(de)損失(shi)與重要(yao)性水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)進(jin)行對比(bi)，得(de)到適合該機(ji)(ji)構(gou)(gou)(gou)的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險等級(ji)(ji)。對于(yu)總(zong)部級(ji)(ji)別(bie)公司(si)，按(an)照其上(shang)(shang)一年(nian)度內涵價值的(de)(de)5%作(zuo)為其最高級(ji)(ji)別(bie)重要(yao)性水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)，分支機(ji)(ji)構(gou)(gou)(gou)的(de)(de)重要(yao)性水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)按(an)照其上(shang)(shang)一年(nian)度保費(fei)規(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)占到上(shang)(shang)級(ji)(ji)機(ji)(ji)構(gou)(gou)(gou)保費(fei)規(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)的(de)(de)比(bi)例進(jin)行分配，所(suo)(suo)(suo)有下級(ji)(ji)機(ji)(ji)構(gou)(gou)(gou)的(de)(de)重要(yao)性水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)相加等于(yu)其上(shang)(shang)級(ji)(ji)機(ji)(ji)構(gou)(gou)(gou)重要(yao)性水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)。按(an)照總(zong)量(liang)控制、比(bi)例分攤的(de)(de)原則來確(que)定具體機(ji)(ji)構(gou)(gou)(gou)的(de)(de)重要(yao)性水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)，一方面考慮(lv)了(le)不(bu)(bu)同(tong)(tong)機(ji)(ji)構(gou)(gou)(gou)其風(feng)(feng)險承受能力不(bu)(bu)同(tong)(tong)，另一方面也考慮(lv)了(le)機(ji)(ji)構(gou)(gou)(gou)不(bu)(bu)斷發展的(de)(de)實際情(qing)況，相同(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)機(ji)(ji)構(gou)(gou)(gou)在不(bu)(bu)同(tong)(tong)年(nian)度中的(de)(de)重要(yao)性水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)可能差異較(jiao)(jiao)大。

（2）以統(tong)計(ji)抽樣(yang)(yang)(yang)技術(shu)解決評(ping)估(gu)誤(wu)差(cha)問題(ti)。采(cai)取(qu)統(tong)計(ji)抽樣(yang)(yang)(yang)技術(shu)能夠實(shi)現審(shen)計(ji)成本的(de)(de)經濟性、總(zong)體推斷的(de)(de)準確(que)(que)性和誤(wu)差(cha)大小的(de)(de)可(ke)接受性：一是(shi)對(dui)(dui)于因審(shen)計(ji)資(zi)源的(de)(de)制(zhi)約(yue)不能全面檢(jian)查(cha)的(de)(de)內容(rong)，采(cai)取(qu)抽樣(yang)(yang)(yang)審(shen)計(ji)的(de)(de)方式；二是(shi)在開展“以風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)導向(xiang)”的(de)(de)審(shen)計(ji)中，通(tong)(tong)過(guo)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)分層(ceng)確(que)(que)定檢(jian)查(cha)方式，對(dui)(dui)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)分層(ceng)較低，沒有必要(yao)全面調查(cha)的(de)(de)內容(rong)，采(cai)取(qu)統(tong)計(ji)抽樣(yang)(yang)(yang)技術(shu)解決；三是(shi)通(tong)(tong)過(guo)統(tong)計(ji)抽樣(yang)(yang)(yang)技術(shu)檢(jian)驗審(shen)計(ji)樣(yang)(yang)(yang)本的(de)(de)準確(que)(que)性，修正審(shen)計(ji)樣(yang)(yang)(yang)本的(de)(de)誤(wu)差(cha)。利用檢(jian)查(cha)階段的(de)(de)抽樣(yang)(yang)(yang)，對(dui)(dui)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)損失大小、風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)水平(ping)等要(yao)素進行統(tong)計(ji)估(gu)計(ji)，從而對(dui)(dui)機(ji)構、專(zhuan)業條線、區域的(de)(de)整體指標狀況的(de)(de)統(tong)計(ji)推算(suan)，實(shi)現對(dui)(dui)總(zong)體風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)的(de)(de)把握(wo)和判斷，同時分析抽樣(yang)(yang)(yang)誤(wu)差(cha)，保證評(ping)估(gu)結果的(de)(de)準確(que)(que)性。

（3）以匯(hui)(hui)總(zong)(zong)規(gui)則(ze)(ze)解決(jue)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評價充分的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)問題(ti)。對于(yu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)計(ji)量，采用從小(xiao)到(dao)大(da)逐(zhu)級(ji)(ji)匯(hui)(hui)總(zong)(zong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)方式來實(shi)現(xian)(xian)。首先，根(gen)據審(shen)計(ji)發現(xian)(xian)問題(ti)或風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)具體情(qing)況，按(an)照內(nei)部(bu)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)級(ji)(ji)評估(gu)(gu)標(biao)準，評估(gu)(gu)審(shen)計(ji)發現(xian)(xian)問題(ti)或風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)級(ji)(ji)，并在內(nei)部(bu)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)評估(gu)(gu)矩陣中確(que)定其所(suo)(suo)屬(shu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)事項(xiang)，進而評估(gu)(gu)該(gai)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)事項(xiang)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)級(ji)(ji)；其次，根(gen)據該(gai)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)事項(xiang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)級(ji)(ji)，評估(gu)(gu)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)事項(xiang)所(suo)(suo)屬(shu)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)活動(dong)(dong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)級(ji)(ji)；最后，根(gen)據控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)活動(dong)(dong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)級(ji)(ji)，評估(gu)(gu)業(ye)務條(tiao)線的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)級(ji)(ji)，將機(ji)構(gou)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)所(suo)(suo)有業(ye)務條(tiao)線風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)級(ji)(ji)進行綜(zong)合(he)評估(gu)(gu)，得(de)(de)(de)到(dao)機(ji)構(gou)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)級(ji)(ji)。為了對多(duo)個控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)事項(xiang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)級(ji)(ji)綜(zong)合(he)得(de)(de)(de)出控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)活動(dong)(dong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)級(ji)(ji)，以及多(duo)個控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)活動(dong)(dong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)級(ji)(ji)綜(zong)合(he)得(de)(de)(de)出專(zhuan)業(ye)條(tiao)線的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)級(ji)(ji)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)綜(zong)合(he)匯(hui)(hui)總(zong)(zong)問題(ti)，可通過設置如下規(gui)則(ze)(ze)實(shi)現(xian)(xian)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)綜(zong)合(he)匯(hui)(hui)總(zong)(zong)：風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)級(ji)(ji)由其等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)級(ji)(ji)最高的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)決(jue)定；控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)活動(dong)(dong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)級(ji)(ji)要綜(zong)合(he)考(kao)慮(lv)(lv)各(ge)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)事項(xiang)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)級(ji)(ji)和(he)(he)權(quan)重；專(zhuan)業(ye)條(tiao)線的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)級(ji)(ji)要綜(zong)合(he)考(kao)慮(lv)(lv)各(ge)控(kong)(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)活動(dong)(dong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)級(ji)(ji)和(he)(he)權(quan)重；機(ji)構(gou)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)級(ji)(ji)要綜(zong)合(he)考(kao)慮(lv)(lv)其下屬(shu)各(ge)專(zhuan)業(ye)條(tiao)線風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)級(ji)(ji)和(he)(he)權(quan)重。

（四）報告階段

揭(jie)示(shi)重大風(feng)險(xian)(xian)可以(yi)(yi)通過分(fen)析公司業務流(liu)程，繪制控制矩(ju)陣(zhen)(zhen)，根據評(ping)估(gu)需(xu)求將(jiang)(jiang)相關控制矩(ju)陣(zhen)(zhen)進(jin)行組合(he)形(xing)成(cheng)評(ping)估(gu)矩(ju)陣(zhen)(zhen)，將(jiang)(jiang)審計中(zhong)發現的(de)(de)(de)問題按(an)照風(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)估(gu)標(biao)準進(jin)行風(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)級，按(an)照評(ping)估(gu)需(xu)求將(jiang)(jiang)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)逐級累計，并最終形(xing)成(cheng)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)地(di)圖(tu)。內部審計部門也可以(yi)(yi)根據風(feng)險(xian)(xian)地(di)圖(tu)中(zhong)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)等級、分(fen)布(bu)等情況，有效(xiao)開展以(yi)(yi)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)為導向的(de)(de)(de)內部審計。對高(gao)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)機(ji)構(gou)、高(gao)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)領域以(yi)(yi)及(ji)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)頻(pin)發機(ji)構(gou)、區(qu)域、專業條線(xian)等開展具有針對性的(de)(de)(de)審計，以(yi)(yi)提高(gao)審計效(xiao)能(neng)。我們可以(yi)(yi)通過風(feng)險(xian)(xian)地(di)圖(tu)，直觀展示(shi)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)等級。

在風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)導向(xiang)內部(bu)審計模(mo)式下，我們(men)需要(yao)改變過去(qu)只注(zhu)重(zhong)表象，簡單羅列問題的(de)模(mo)式，強調對(dui)系統性、重(zhong)要(yao)性和(he)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)性等(deng)問題的(de)梳理和(he)歸納，找(zhao)出其根源和(he)趨勢，并提(ti)出可操作的(de)合(he)理化建(jian)議，發(fa)揮(hui)審計咨詢(xun)的(de)功(gong)能(neng)。為(wei)此，內部(bu)審計部(bu)門應定期收(shou)集各類報(bao)告和(he)信(xin)息(xi)(xi)（行(xing)業(ye)信(xin)息(xi)(xi)和(he)其他條(tiao)線信(xin)息(xi)(xi)），撰寫業(ye)務條(tiao)線和(he)區(qu)域的(de)綜合(he)分析報(bao)告，突(tu)出對(dui)系統性風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)、重(zhong)要(yao)性機構(gou)、高(gao)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)問題的(de)分析；對(dui)新產品、新領域的(de)新生風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)、突(tu)發(fa)性合(he)規風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)、財務風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)、聲譽(yu)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)等(deng)，應在第一時間(jian)進行(xing)報(bao)告，提(ti)高(gao)對(dui)重(zhong)大風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)揭示率。

（作(zuo)者周仲平為(wei)高級(ji)會計師；張憑(ping)為(wei)審(shen)計師、CPA）

參考文獻

[1] 陳文輝.國際保險(xian)監管核心原則的最新發展與中國實踐[M].北京：人民日報出版(ban)社，2012-05-01（第1版(ban)）.

[2] IAIS. Insurance Core Principles Standards Guidance and Assessment Methodology[S].October，2011.

[3] 中國(guo)保(bao)險(xian)監督管(guan)理委員會.保(bao)險(xian)稽查審(shen)計指引：2012第2號，財務分冊[M].北京(jing)：中國(guo)財政經(jing)濟(ji)出(chu)版社(she)，2012（第1版）.

[4] 中(zhong)國保(bao)險監(jian)督(du)管(guan)理(li)委(wei)員會.保(bao)險稽查審計指(zhi)引(yin)：2012第(di)3號，公(gong)司層面內部控(kong)制分冊[M].北(bei)京：中(zhong)國財(cai)政經濟(ji)出版社，2012（第(di)1版）.

[5] 中(zhong)(zhong)國保(bao)險監督管(guan)理委員(yuan)會(hui).保(bao)險稽查審計指引：2012第4號，人身保(bao)險業務分冊[M].北京(jing)：中(zhong)(zhong)國財政經(jing)濟出版(ban)社，2012（第1版(ban)）.

[6] 中(zhong)國保(bao)險監督管理(li)委(wei)員會.保(bao)險稽查審計指引：2012第(di)5號，資金運用分冊[M].北京：中(zhong)國財政經濟(ji)出版社，2012（第(di)1版）.

[7] 中國保險監(jian)督管理委員會.保險公司風險管理指(zhi)引（試行）[S].保監(jian)發〔2007〕23號(hao)，2007-04-06.

[8] 中(zhong)國(guo)保險(xian)監督管理委員會.保險(xian)公司內部審計指引（試(shi)行(xing)）[S].保監發〔2010〕89號(hao)，2007-04-09.

[9] 中國(guo)保險(xian)(xian)監督管理委(wei)員會.人身保險(xian)(xian)公司全面(mian)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)管理實施指引[S].保監發〔2007〕26號，2010-10-24.

[10] 董玉玲.淺析風險導向內部審計[J].北(bei)京(jing)：全國商情（理論研究），2012（2）.

[11] 莊飛鵬.基于(yu)風險導向的企業內部審計運作流程研究[J].武漢：財會通訊(xun)，2012（1）.

[12] 馬(ma)建敏(min).淺談企業風險(xian)導向內部審(shen)計的實踐模(mo)式[J].昆(kun)明(ming)：時代(dai)金(jin)融，2012（2）.

[13] 鄒(zou)斌.XHRS保(bao)險公司內部審計框(kuang)架優化[D].寧夏大(da)學碩士(shi)論文，2012-11-30.

篇10

隨著(zhu)我國利率市場(chang)化改革的(de)基本完成，資本市場(chang)不斷擴張，外資銀(yin)行不斷涌入，金融市場(chang)發生多(duo)樣變革，商(shang)業銀(yin)行面臨(lin)著(zhu)越(yue)(yue)來越(yue)(yue)激烈的(de)市場(chang)競爭。雖然我國商(shang)業銀(yin)行在體制改革方面取得了(le)顯著(zhu)進步，但仍是銀(yin)行經(jing)(jing)營主體的(de)傳統經(jing)(jing)營模(mo)式已越(yue)(yue)來越(yue)(yue)不適應當前的(de)市場(chang)環境。新(xin)的(de)市場(chang)環境對舊的(de)經(jing)(jing)營方式提出(chu)了(le)新(xin)的(de)要求。

二、我國商業銀(yin)行傳統業務面臨的現況(kuang)

金融全球(qiu)化進程(cheng)加深，國際銀行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)通過業(ye)(ye)務(wu)的(de)快速擴(kuo)張(zhang)成為(wei)國內(nei)(nei)銀行(xing)(xing)(xing)強(qiang)勁的(de)對手(shou)。國際銀行(xing)(xing)(xing)在經(jing)營模式、創新服務(wu)等(deng)方(fang)面具有明(ming)顯優勢，仍以傳統業(ye)(ye)務(wu)為(wei)主(zhu)的(de)國內(nei)(nei)商業(ye)(ye)銀行(xing)(xing)(xing)正一步步地失去競爭優勢。

同(tong)時，利(li)(li)(li)率市場(chang)化導致商(shang)(shang)業(ye)銀行的利(li)(li)(li)差(cha)收入不斷(duan)減少(shao)，金融(rong)脫媒現象、互聯網金融(rong)的出現和(he)興盛對傳(chuan)統信(xin)貸業(ye)務(wu)造成了巨大(da)沖擊。基于存貸利(li)(li)(li)差(cha)的傳(chuan)統盈(ying)利(li)(li)(li)模(mo)(mo)式，使(shi)我(wo)國(guo)商(shang)(shang)業(ye)銀行利(li)(li)(li)潤增長只能(neng)依(yi)靠(kao)擴張規(gui)模(mo)(mo)實現，而盲目(mu)擴張又導致資本結構不合理，制約著(zhu)銀行發展。雖然傳(chuan)統的經營(ying)模(mo)(mo)式決定了我(wo)國(guo)商(shang)(shang)業(ye)銀行盈(ying)利(li)(li)(li)模(mo)(mo)式的單一，但(dan)也意味(wei)著(zhu)我(wo)國(guo)商(shang)(shang)業(ye)銀行在業(ye)務(wu)轉(zhuan)型創新和(he)改(gai)變盈(ying)利(li)(li)(li)模(mo)(mo)式方面(mian)，尚有很大(da)的發展空間。

三(san)、我國商(shang)業銀(yin)行傳統(tong)業務面臨的挑戰(zhan)

（一）利率市場化

利(li)(li)率市(shi)場化(hua)會改(gai)變商業(ye)(ye)銀行(xing)所面臨(lin)的(de)(de)整(zheng)個市(shi)場環境(jing)，變化(hua)的(de)(de)市(shi)場環境(jing)會給商業(ye)(ye)銀行(xing)經(jing)營(ying)帶來巨(ju)大(da)(da)的(de)(de)挑戰(zhan)。就(jiu)大(da)(da)部分(fen)國家和(he)地區而(er)言，利(li)(li)率市(shi)場化(hua)會帶來存(cun)貸利(li)(li)差的(de)(de)大(da)(da)幅縮小(xiao)，減(jian)弱以傳統經(jing)營(ying)模式為(wei)主的(de)(de)商業(ye)(ye)銀行(xing)盈利(li)(li)能(neng)力，使銀行(xing)利(li)(li)潤大(da)(da)幅下(xia)降，從而(er)對銀行(xing)造成巨(ju)大(da)(da)的(de)(de)沖擊。這一(yi)點，我國也不例外。

而(er)利(li)(li)率的(de)不(bu)規(gui)(gui)則波(bo)動(dong)導致了(le)收益的(de)不(bu)規(gui)(gui)則波(bo)動(dong)，一定程度上增(zeng)加(jia)了(le)商業銀(yin)(yin)行在流動(dong)性風(feng)(feng)險管(guan)理方面(mian)的(de)難(nan)度。利(li)(li)率風(feng)(feng)險要(yao)求(qiu)銀(yin)(yin)行對利(li)(li)率波(bo)動(dong)有(you)更高(gao)的(de)敏感性和更準確(que)的(de)預(yu)見性，同時對銀(yin)(yin)行內部管(guan)理控制(zhi)提出(chu)了(le)更高(gao)的(de)要(yao)求(qiu)。

（二）“金融脫媒”現(xian)象上升

“脫媒(mei)”就是(shi)“脫掉中介”，“金(jin)融(rong)脫媒(mei)”就是(shi)資金(jin)融(rong)通的(de)“去中介化(hua)(hua)”，即直接融(rong)資。隨著(zhu)經濟市場化(hua)(hua)和金(jin)融(rong)監管的(de)逐步放(fang)松，金(jin)融(rong)脫媒(mei)是(shi)市場發展的(de)必(bi)然的(de)全球性的(de)趨勢。

近年(nian)來(lai)，隨著直接融(rong)資(zi)市場的(de)快(kuai)速(su)發展，我國金融(rong)脫媒(mei)的(de)現象蔓(man)延：銀(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)貸款(kuan)脫媒(mei)，直接融(rong)資(zi)比例上升，商業銀(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)傳統信貸業務受(shou)到沖擊；銀(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)作為主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)金融(rong)中介的(de)重(zhong)要(yao)地位逐漸降(jiang)低，并且(qie)這一趨勢在(zai)不久的(de)將(jiang)來(lai)會更加明顯。同時金融(rong)脫媒(mei)導致銀(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)存款(kuan)及貸款(kuan)客戶(hu)的(de)流失，迫使銀(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)主(zhu)(zhu)動(dong)提高存款(kuan)利(li)率，下(xia)降(jiang)貸款(kuan)利(li)率來(lai)吸引客戶(hu)，使得(de)銀(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)經營(ying)成本(ben)增(zeng)加，利(li)差(cha)收入減少。

（三）互(hu)聯網金融(rong)沖擊(ji)舊模式

新興的(de)(de)(de)互聯(lian)(lian)網(wang)金(jin)融(rong)，以一種新的(de)(de)(de)商(shang)業(ye)(ye)模(mo)式，沖擊并改變商(shang)業(ye)(ye)銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)傳統(tong)經營方式。首先，它將銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)支(zhi)付(fu)(fu)推向了(le)邊緣(yuan)化。以支(zhi)付(fu)(fu)寶等(deng)第三方支(zhi)付(fu)(fu)平臺為例，商(shang)業(ye)(ye)銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)支(zhi)付(fu)(fu)結(jie)算(suan)功能幾乎(hu)完全被(bei)市場(chang)拋棄。其(qi)次，互聯(lian)(lian)網(wang)金(jin)融(rong)的(de)(de)(de)活(huo)期利率(lv)吸引了(le)大部(bu)分個(ge)體，短期內資(zi)金(jin)大規模(mo)流向互聯(lian)(lian)網(wang)金(jin)融(rong)，銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)活(huo)期存款(kuan)驟然減少，這也(ye)在一定程度上推動了(le)我(wo)國的(de)(de)(de)利率(lv)市場(chang)化。最(zui)后，雖然目前互聯(lian)(lian)網(wang)金(jin)融(rong)的(de)(de)(de)借貸行(xing)(xing)(xing)為主要由個(ge)人消費信(xin)貸組(zu)成，但隨著其(qi)自身(shen)的(de)(de)(de)發展，未來它所擁有(you)的(de)(de)(de)客戶將和傳統(tong)銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)客戶交叉覆蓋。

（四）客戶(hu)需(xu)求多元化

就企(qi)(qi)業(ye)而言，經(jing)營范(fan)圍擴(kuo)大，跨境企(qi)(qi)業(ye)不(bu)斷涌現(xian)(xian)，資金(jin)(jin)(jin)使用(yong)越(yue)來越(yue)頻繁，職員待遇越(yue)來越(yue)受到重視，需要(yao)銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)提供相應的現(xian)(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)管理業(ye)務(wu)(wu)、企(qi)(qi)業(ye)養老金(jin)(jin)(jin)業(ye)務(wu)(wu)等。就個(ge)人而言，收入水平(ping)不(bu)斷提高，個(ge)人資產(chan)越(yue)來越(yue)可觀，對金(jin)(jin)(jin)融服務(wu)(wu)的需求(qiu)拓展至財富管理、私(si)人銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)等。而現(xian)(xian)階段，我國商業(ye)銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)的主要(yao)業(ye)務(wu)(wu)還(huan)是存(cun)貸(dai)款(kuan)業(ye)務(wu)(wu)，主要(yao)盈利(li)還(huan)是依(yi)靠存(cun)貸(dai)利(li)差，銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)的經(jing)營方式滯后于客戶需求(qiu)的變(bian)化，以至于更多(duo)的客戶群體選(xuan)擇(ze)直接投向(xiang)金(jin)(jin)(jin)融市場或(huo)者其他非銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)機構。

四、我國商業(ye)銀行業(ye)務轉變的途徑(jing)

（一）提升業(ye)務(wu)創(chuang)新能(neng)力，推動中(zhong)間業(ye)務(wu)發展(zhan)

商業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)銀行(xing)(xing)(xing)的投(tou)資(zi)與融(rong)資(zi)功能日益(yi)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)化，傳(chuan)統業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)的地位(wei)漸(jian)漸(jian)弱化，商業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)銀行(xing)(xing)(xing)成為(wei)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)的重(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)參與者。首先，商業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)銀行(xing)(xing)(xing)應認識(shi)到中(zhong)間(jian)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)的重(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)性，根據自(zi)身情況，規劃(hua)適(shi)合(he)自(zi)身的發(fa)展(zhan)方(fang)案，穩定(ding)傳(chuan)統中(zhong)間(jian)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)，開(kai)發(fa)新(xin)(xin)(xin)型中(zhong)間(jian)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)，發(fa)展(zhan)重(zhong)(zhong)點中(zhong)間(jian)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)，不盲目隨流。改變盈利結構，同步(bu)發(fa)展(zhan)傳(chuan)統業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)和(he)中(zhong)間(jian)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)，兩(liang)手都(dou)要(yao)抓，兩(liang)手都(dou)要(yao)硬。其(qi)次(ci)，促進金融(rong)創(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)，通過業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)和(he)產品創(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)來(lai)滿足客(ke)(ke)戶(hu)的需(xu)求(qiu)，適(shi)應市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)的變化。注重(zhong)(zhong)員工的培訓，以(yi)客(ke)(ke)戶(hu)的需(xu)求(qiu)為(wei)目的來(lai)創(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)產品，以(yi)客(ke)(ke)戶(hu)為(wei)核心來(lai)提供創(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)服務(wu)，將市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)營(ying)銷(xiao)融(rong)入業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)創(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)之(zhi)中(zhong)，建立銀行(xing)(xing)(xing)和(he)客(ke)(ke)戶(hu)之(zhi)間(jian)的創(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)聯(lian)系。同時(shi)也加強定(ding)價管(guan)理，合(he)理的收費(fei)標準(zhun)能提高銀行(xing)(xing)(xing)在價格方(fang)面(mian)的競爭(zheng)力。最后，健(jian)全中(zhong)間(jian)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)的內部管(guan)理機(ji)制(zhi)，加強風險管(guan)理。中(zhong)間(jian)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)作為(wei)商業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)銀行(xing)(xing)(xing)轉(zhuan)型業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)的重(zhong)(zhong)點發(fa)展(zhan)對象(xiang)，其(qi)操作風險難以(yi)控制(zhi)，有效實(shi)現中(zhong)間(jian)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)的內部管(guan)理和(he)風險預(yu)警，是發(fa)展(zhan)中(zhong)間(jian)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)的重(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)保障。

（二）發展網(wang)絡移動(dong)銀(yin)行，零(ling)售業務互聯網(wang)化

深受互聯(lian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)影(ying)響的(de)今天，大(da)(da)部分人都通過(guo)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)絡平臺進行(xing)(xing)社(she)交，商業(ye)銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)應該把握(wo)這一(yi)契機(ji)(ji)(ji)，借鑒(jian)互聯(lian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)金(jin)(jin)融的(de)發展模式，調整經營策略(lve)。商業(ye)銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)和互聯(lian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術融合(he)后，銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)零售業(ye)務逐漸顯現出(chu)互聯(lian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)化(hua)(hua)趨(qu)勢，出(chu)現了(le)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)上銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)，提供更(geng)(geng)方便、快捷、有(you)效的(de)金(jin)(jin)融服務。比如網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)上銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)，客戶(hu)(hu)通過(guo)互聯(lian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)方便快捷地進行(xing)(xing)賬戶(hu)(hu)信(xin)息(xi)查詢(xun)、金(jin)(jin)融咨(zi)詢(xun)等，不必在(zai)銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)物理網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)點間(jian)奔波。又如手(shou)(shou)機(ji)(ji)(ji)銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)，手(shou)(shou)機(ji)(ji)(ji)支付幾乎(hu)覆蓋了(le)人們的(de)衣食住行(xing)(xing)，在(zai)大(da)(da)城市(shi)中已基(ji)本做到(dao)了(le)零紙幣化(hua)(hua)，若(ruo)手(shou)(shou)機(ji)(ji)(ji)支付、個人消(xiao)費貸款都能通過(guo)手(shou)(shou)機(ji)(ji)(ji)銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)來完成，無疑大(da)(da)大(da)(da)拓(tuo)寬了(le)銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)的(de)業(ye)務渠(qu)道。同(tong)時(shi)，網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)絡銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)通過(guo)大(da)(da)數(shu)據技(ji)(ji)(ji)術可以(yi)收集并分析(xi)客戶(hu)(hu)的(de)偏(pian)好和行(xing)(xing)為信(xin)息(xi)，使(shi)銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)更(geng)(geng)精(jing)確(que)地預(yu)測客戶(hu)(hu)行(xing)(xing)為并針(zhen)對(dui)性地制(zhi)定(ding)營銷策略(lve)和實施風險控制(zhi)。雖然互聯(lian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)金(jin)(jin)融?o銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)造成了(le)巨大(da)(da)的(de)競爭(zheng)壓力，但(dan)也(ye)帶來了(le)新的(de)模式。故(gu)商業(ye)銀(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)要高度重(zhong)視互聯(lian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)金(jin)(jin)融，利(li)用(yong)互聯(lian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)和移(yi)動(dong)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)絡技(ji)(ji)(ji)術，在(zai)互聯(lian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)金(jin)(jin)融的(de)基(ji)礎上進行(xing)(xing)適(shi)應移(yi)動(dong)終(zhong)端的(de)業(ye)務創新。

（三）拓展國(guo)際金融業務，提升(sheng)國(guo)際服務水平

國(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)商(shang)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)銀行(xing)來勢洶(xiong)洶(xiong)，我國(guo)(guo)(guo)商(shang)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)銀行(xing)的(de)(de)國(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)化程度還(huan)遠(yuan)落后于世界。如花旗、匯豐(feng)等國(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)知(zhi)名大銀行(xing)，其海(hai)外資產(chan)(chan)占(zhan)總資產(chan)(chan)的(de)(de)比重通常在(zai)50%以(yi)上，而就我國(guo)(guo)(guo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)化程度較高(gao)的(de)(de)中國(guo)(guo)(guo)銀行(xing)來說，其2016年指出其他(ta)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)資產(chan)(chan)總額僅占(zhan)集(ji)團資產(chan)(chan)總額的(de)(de)9.34%。兩者(zhe)相(xiang)比，不言而喻。在(zai)經濟(ji)全球(qiu)化的(de)(de)大背景下(xia)，拓(tuo)展(zhan)(zhan)國(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)金(jin)融(rong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)是(shi)商(shang)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)銀行(xing)推動自身發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)的(de)(de)一(yi)(yi)種必要選擇。公(gong)司業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)方面，進(jin)(jin)一(yi)(yi)步完善跨境(jing)(jing)融(rong)資產(chan)(chan)品(pin)服務(wu)(wu)(wu)建設，助力中國(guo)(guo)(guo)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)“走(zou)出去(qu)”，支持境(jing)(jing)外企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)“走(zou)進(jin)(jin)來”，加(jia)強和國(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)金(jin)融(rong)機構的(de)(de)合(he)作(zuo)，提(ti)升國(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)服務(wu)(wu)(wu)水平。個人業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)方面，可以(yi)針(zhen)對海(hai)外留學(xue)、工(gong)作(zuo)等客戶提(ti)供服務(wu)(wu)(wu)，如跨境(jing)(jing)支付業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)，加(jia)強與海(hai)外第三方機構的(de)(de)合(he)作(zuo)等。“師夷長(chang)技以(yi)制夷”，在(zai)拓(tuo)展(zhan)(zhan)國(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)金(jin)融(rong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)時，要學(xue)習(xi)國(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)大銀行(xing)的(de)(de)長(chang)處，結合(he)自身情況(kuang)分析(xi)，選擇合(he)適(shi)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)的(de)(de)道路，穩中求進(jin)(jin)。

（四）落實風(feng)險防控措施(shi)，提高風(feng)險管(guan)理水平

金融市(shi)(shi)場(chang)是(shi)復雜變化的(de)(de)(de)，商業銀行(xing)置身于其中，所面(mian)臨的(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)也是(shi)不易控制(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)。銀行(xing)想要(yao)(yao)(yao)在市(shi)(shi)場(chang)中立于不敗之(zhi)地，就要(yao)(yao)(yao)認清風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)形式，制(zhi)定、落實好各項風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)防(fang)控措施，堅決預(yu)防(fang)和遏(e)制(zhi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)事件的(de)(de)(de)發(fa)生(sheng)。信用(yong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)方面(mian)，要(yao)(yao)(yao)密(mi)切跟進金融形勢，提升(sheng)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)的(de)(de)(de)主(zhu)動(dong)性(xing)。具體(ti)可以(yi)加大不良資產清收力度，加強行(xing)業風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)，如定期各行(xing)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)分析(xi)報告等(deng)。市(shi)(shi)場(chang)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)方面(mian)，針對市(shi)(shi)場(chang)環(huan)境(jing)、業務發(fa)展及管(guan)控要(yao)(yao)(yao)求(qiu)的(de)(de)(de)變化，及時采取措施，提升(sheng)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)的(de)(de)(de)靈活(huo)性(xing)。具體(ti)可以(yi)豐富風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)計量(liang)工具，密(mi)切關注利(li)率、匯率價格波(bo)動(dong)等(deng)。流(liu)(liu)動(dong)性(xing)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)方面(mian)，要(yao)(yao)(yao)建(jian)立健全(quan)流(liu)(liu)動(dong)性(xing)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)體(ti)系，提高(gao)流(liu)(liu)動(dong)性(xing)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)的(de)(de)(de)科(ke)學性(xing)。具體(ti)可以(yi)定期對流(liu)(liu)動(dong)性(xing)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)限(xian)額進行(xing)重(zhong)檢，重(zhong)視(shi)一級(ji)準備管(guan)理(li)和二(er)級(ji)準備管(guan)理(li)兩(liang)道(dao)防(fang)線(xian)，使用(yong)靜態(tai)指(zhi)標法、動(dong)態(tai)指(zhi)標法等(deng)進一步(bu)完善流(liu)(liu)動(dong)性(xing)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)預(yu)警體(ti)系等(deng)，盡量(liang)在低風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)中謀收益。

五、結語