導(dao)語：如何才能寫好一篇風險評估工作內容(rong)，這就需要搜集整理更多的資料和文獻(xian)，歡(huan)迎閱讀由(you)公務員之家整理的十篇范(fan)文，供你(ni)借鑒。

篇1

風險評估是(shi)(shi)風(feng)險(xian)分析框架中的重要一環，是(shi)(shi)食品安(an)全標(biao)準制(zhi)(zhi)定修(xiu)訂(ding)、食品安(an)全生產規范制(zhi)(zhi)定、食品安(an)全標(biao)簽標(biao)識規定等風(feng)險(xian)管理措(cuo)施的基礎，也是(shi)(shi)風(feng)險(xian)交流的信(xin)息來源。

在風險評估方面，新《食品安全法》加強了風險評估制度，如專家委員會組成增加了生物、環保領域專家，使風險評估更具專業代表性;擴大了風險評估的領域，將評估內容由食品和食品添加劑擴大到食品相關產品，涵蓋了影響食品安全的各方面因素，進一步發揮風險評估對強化食品安全監管的作用;要求及時公布風險評估結果，提高風險評估工作的公開透(tou)明(ming)度，保障了(le)公眾的知情權(quan)和(he)參與(yu)權(quan)。

然而，我國和發達國家相比，從事食品安(an)全風(feng)險評(ping)估(gu)的時間短(duan)、經驗少(shao)，在(zai)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)度設(she)計(ji)和實施現狀上還存(cun)在(zai)著一(yi)定的問題和不足之處，如缺相關(guan)的配套制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)度。對此，筆者建議(yi)：加快完善(shan)國家風(feng)險評(ping)估(gu)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)度，提(ti)高相關(guan)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)度的權(quan)威性;科(ke)學設(she)計(ji)風(feng)險評(ping)估(gu)機構體系;健全風(feng)險評(ping)估(gu)信息公(gong)開制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)度，推進(jin)社(she)會共治;明確專家隊伍的法律(lv)責任(ren)。

風險評估制度問題突(tu)出(chu)

在筆(bi)者看(kan)來(lai)，我國的風險評(ping)估法律體系并不健全(quan)。

我國雖已出臺了與食品安全風險評估制度密切相關的法律規定，除了衛計委制定的專門性規范之外，食品安全風險評估法律規定多分散于其他規范性文件中，風險評估法律不全面，缺乏體系性、規范性的制度內容，且其效力較低。

與(yu)此同時，我國食(shi)品安(an)全(quan)(quan)風險(xian)評(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)制度已具(ju)雛形，但許多與(yu)其相關的配套(tao)制度仍處于缺失狀態，風險(xian)評(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)的啟(qi)動程序、信息(xi)公開度、風險(xian)評(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)救濟程序，以及(ji)相應的法律責任等亟(ji)須(xu)建構。食(shi)品安(an)全(quan)(quan)監(jian)管(guan)有(you)力的歐美國家(jia)有(you)條不(bu)紊地進行風險(xian)評(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)，其重要原因就是食(shi)品安(an)全(quan)(quan)風險(xian)評(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)各項(xiang)制度非常健(jian)全(quan)(quan)和(he)明確。

目前(qian)，各(ge)類有害因素的風(feng)險(xian)評估(gu)方(fang)法(fa)和(he)技術(shu)指南不健全(quan)(quan)， 風(feng)險(xian)評估(gu)機構開展風(feng)險(xian)評估(gu)相關工作時(shi)缺(que)乏規范、統一、有效(xiao)的指導原則。同時(shi)，風(feng)險(xian)評估(gu)基礎數據不足，部門間數據共享不暢通，對食品(pin)(pin)安(an)全(quan)(quan)規律的系統性研究不夠(gou)深入，評估(gu)方(fang)法(fa)和(he)模型(xing)研究能力相對不足，科研成果轉化應用不夠(gou)，食品(pin)(pin)安(an)全(quan)(quan)隱患識別能力不強。

為(wei)(wei)避免食(shi)品安全風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)估受到不(bu)良因素干擾，國(guo)際食(shi)品法典委(wei)員(yuan)(yuan)會(hui)（CAC）在風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)分(fen)析制(zhi)度中明(ming)確(que)規(gui)定，風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)估和風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管理(li)應分(fen)離。但(dan)是(shi)從機構設置、組成人員(yuan)(yuan)看，國(guo)家食(shi)品安全風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)估中心僅為(wei)(wei)衛計(ji)委(wei)的(de)(de)一個下屬單位;同(tong)時，評(ping)估中心的(de)(de)理(li)事(shi)會(hui)成員(yuan)(yuan)也(ye)多(duo)為(wei)(wei)政府官員(yuan)(yuan)。而且，評(ping)估過程具有明(ming)顯(xian)的(de)(de)衛生部主導性(xing)，以(yi)及對相關部門數據的(de)(de)依賴性(xing)等特征，風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)估的(de)(de)科學性(xing)、持(chi)續性(xing)不(bu)足，難以(yi)有效預防食(shi)品安全事(shi)故的(de)(de)產(chan)生。

對此，筆者認為，我國的(de)(de)食品安全風險(xian)評(ping)估在風險(xian)管理決策(ce)中發揮的(de)(de)作(zuo)用并沒有充(chong)分顯現。

一(yi)(yi)方面(mian)(mian)，由(you)于風(feng)險(xian)(xian)分析原(yuan)則(ze)的(de)(de)推行力度不夠，導致監管機構(gou)對(dui)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)分析原(yuan)則(ze)的(de)(de)認(ren)識和實施(shi)尚不全面(mian)(mian)，進而風(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)估的(de)(de)作(zuo)用(yong)也(ye)難以被政府部門和公眾所重(zhong)視。另(ling)一(yi)(yi)方面(mian)(mian)，食品安(an)全風(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)估工(gong)作(zuo)的(de)(de)現(xian)狀與當前食品安(an)全監管工(gong)作(zuo)的(de)(de)需要不適應，不能充分滿(man)足風(feng)險(xian)(xian)管理(li)需求。

法律規范對風險(xian)評(ping)估(gu)信(xin)息內容公(gong)開(kai)的(de)規定(ding)較少，食品安全內容公(gong)開(kai)的(de)多為風險(xian)評(ping)估(gu)結(jie)果，對風險(xian)評(ping)估(gu)的(de)數(shu)據、方法、程序等重要內容尚未作出(chu)明確(que)規定(ding)。我國(guo)目前在食品安全風險(xian)評(ping)估(gu)信(xin)息和(he)結(jie)果的(de)和(he)交流不夠及(ji)時， 這一方面使風險(xian)評(ping)估(gu)降低了透明性，另(ling)一方面也(ye)影響風險(xian)評(ping)估(gu)人才的(de)培養和(he)評(ping)估(gu)事業的(de)發展。

目前，法律除了明(ming)確評(ping)估專(zhuan)家委員會開展風險評(ping)估外，哪些技術機(ji)構可以承擔風險評(ping)估任務，以及風險評(ping)估機(ji)構與評(ping)估專(zhuan)家委員會的關(guan)系等尚無明(ming)確規(gui)范。

“十三五”應該如何改善

首先(xian)，加快完善國(guo)家風(feng)險評估(gu)制度，提高相關制度的權威性(xing)。

據悉，我國正在制(zhi)(zhi)訂部門(men)規章級別的《食(shi)品安(an)全(quan)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)估(gu)管理(li)辦法(fa)(fa)(fa)》（下文簡稱《辦法(fa)(fa)(fa)》）。筆者建議，有關部門(men)應(ying)該加(jia)速《辦法(fa)(fa)(fa)》的制(zhi)(zhi)訂進一步制(zhi)(zhi)定和(he)細化(hua)食(shi)品安(an)全(quan)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)估(gu)辦法(fa)(fa)(fa)和(he)實施管理(li)細則(ze)，明確食(shi)品安(an)全(quan)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)估(gu)的對象范圍(wei)、實施程序、基本原則(ze)和(he)法(fa)(fa)(fa)律責任，特別應(ying)建立科學性、合理(li)性、合法(fa)(fa)(fa)性和(he)可行性的風險(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)估(gu)內(nei)容和(he)標準，確保重(zhong)大食(shi)品安(an)全(quan)隱患或事(shi)件可控(kong)。

同(tong)時，應(ying)建立科學風(feng)險評估(gu)(gu)的(de)(de)(de)實體制度和(he)程序規(gui)則，積極加強事前預防、注重監管(guan)的(de)(de)(de)源頭治理，應(ying)運用食(shi)品(pin)安(an)全(quan)(quan)風(feng)險真實數據和(he)監測信息(xi)等規(gui)范風(feng)險評估(gu)(gu)的(de)(de)(de)方(fang)法(fa)(fa)內容。而且(qie)，食(shi)品(pin)安(an)全(quan)(quan)風(feng)險評估(gu)(gu)的(de)(de)(de)啟動程序、信息(xi)公(gong)開(kai)、風(feng)險評估(gu)(gu)救濟、評估(gu)(gu)者的(de)(de)(de)法(fa)(fa)律(lv)(lv)責任等應(ying)盡快建立起來(lai)，逐(zhu)步完善和(he)細化其(qi)風(feng)險評估(gu)(gu)內容。最終形成以《食(shi)品(pin)安(an)全(quan)(quan)法(fa)(fa)》為支撐，其(qi)他(ta)法(fa)(fa)律(lv)(lv)法(fa)(fa)規(gui)相匹配的(de)(de)(de)多層次、系(xi)統化的(de)(de)(de)結構嚴(yan)謹、操(cao)作性強的(de)(de)(de)食(shi)品(pin)安(an)全(quan)(quan)風(feng)險評估(gu)(gu)法(fa)(fa)律(lv)(lv)體系(xi)。

此外，也要根(gen)據(ju)新《食品安全法》的規定，強(qiang)化風險(xian)評估結(jie)果(guo)在風險(xian)決策(ce)中(zhong)的應用轉(zhuan)化。

其次，科(ke)學設(she)計(ji)風險評估機(ji)構體系(xi)。

為了促進食品安(an)(an)全(quan)風(feng)險(xian)評(ping)估(gu)(gu)工作開展，應提升其機(ji)(ji)(ji)構的(de)權威性(xing)，風(feng)險(xian)評(ping)估(gu)(gu)機(ji)(ji)(ji)構的(de)設置(zhi)應進行(xing)修改(gai)和(he)完善，確保(bao)(bao)增強其機(ji)(ji)(ji)構的(de)獨(du)(du)立(li)性(xing)和(he)其工作的(de)有效性(xing)。日本設立(li)的(de)食品安(an)(an)全(quan)委(wei)員會(hui)，直屬于內(nei)閣領導;歐(ou)盟(meng)的(de)食品安(an)(an)全(quan)局，獨(du)(du)立(li)于歐(ou)盟(meng)的(de)監管機(ji)(ji)(ji)構。這些都(dou)充分保(bao)(bao)障了食品安(an)(an)全(quan)風(feng)險(xian)評(ping)估(gu)(gu)機(ji)(ji)(ji)構的(de)獨(du)(du)立(li)性(xing)，值得借鑒和(he)參(can)考(kao)。

在具體體系設(she)計中，應按照充分(fen)發(fa)揮(hui)(hui)社會(hui)(hui)(hui)資源、積極發(fa)揮(hui)(hui)不同行業(ye)專(zhuan)家優勢(shi)的(de)(de)(de)原(yuan)則，進一步拓展評估(gu)專(zhuan)家委(wei)員(yuan)會(hui)(hui)(hui)發(fa)揮(hui)(hui)作(zuo)用的(de)(de)(de)機制，明(ming)確(que)社會(hui)(hui)(hui)機構承擔或參與風險評估(gu)的(de)(de)(de)條件(jian)和要求，明(ming)確(que)風險評估(gu)機構與評估(gu)專(zhuan)家委(wei)員(yuan)會(hui)(hui)(hui)的(de)(de)(de)工作(zuo)關系。

風險評(ping)估(gu)機構的(de)(de)人員組(zu)成應具有深厚的(de)(de)專(zhuan)業應用(yong)性和(he)廣泛的(de)(de)社會代表(biao)性，特(te)別應包括與(yu)食品相關方面的(de)(de)專(zhuan)家、學者，還(huan)應吸(xi)納獨立的(de)(de)研究機構、咨詢單位和(he)其他(ta)社會力量參與(yu)食品安全風險評(ping)估(gu)工作，把評(ping)估(gu)結果作為食品安全監管決策和(he)制定食品安全標準的(de)(de)最重要、最直接科學依據(ju)，以保障風險評(ping)估(gu)的(de)(de)客(ke)觀性和(he)公正性。

此外，各地也要(yao)積極(ji)爭取當地政府(fu)和(he)(he)(he)(he)發(fa)改、財政部門的支持(chi)，增加(jia)工(gong)作(zuo)經費，配(pei)備專(zhuan)業人員，加(jia)強人才(cai)培(pei)(pei)養和(he)(he)(he)(he)貯備。要(yao)邊(bian)工(gong)作(zuo)邊(bian)發(fa)展(zhan)，通過參(can)與國家(jia)(jia)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)評估(gu)(gu)工(gong)作(zuo)，不斷提高(gao)開展(zhan)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)評估(gu)(gu)的水(shui)平和(he)(he)(he)(he)能(neng)力。國家(jia)(jia)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)評估(gu)(gu)中心要(yao)加(jia)強對地方(fang)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)評估(gu)(gu)工(gong)作(zuo)的指導、培(pei)(pei)訓和(he)(he)(he)(he)考核(he)。通過考核(he)，達(da)到(dao)相應條件和(he)(he)(he)(he)能(neng)力的地方(fang)疾控機構，可(ke)接受國家(jia)(jia)委托，承擔國家(jia)(jia)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)評估(gu)(gu)項(xiang)目、新食品原料安全性評估(gu)(gu)等具體工(gong)作(zuo)。

再次(ci)，健全風(feng)險評估(gu)信息公開制度，推進社會共治。

按照風(feng)險評(ping)(ping)估公(gong)(gong)開(kai)透(tou)明(ming)的原則，結合政(zheng)府政(zheng)務公(gong)(gong)開(kai)要求，進(jin)一(yi)步健全風(feng)險評(ping)(ping)估的信息公(gong)(gong)開(kai)制(zhi)度，形成(cheng)有利于實現(xian)客(ke)觀、公(gong)(gong)正和透(tou)明(ming)風(feng)險評(ping)(ping)估的制(zhi)度環境，進(jin)一(yi)步推進(jin)社會共(gong)治。

同時應不斷(duan)擴展信(xin)息公(gong)(gong)開渠道：可定(ding)(ding)期召開會(hui)(hui)議，邀請相(xiang)(xiang)關利(li)益(yi)方或公(gong)(gong)眾參與(yu)，與(yu)公(gong)(gong)眾進行互動(dong)，了解公(gong)(gong)眾所需，增(zeng)強公(gong)(gong)眾對風險(xian)評(ping)估決策的認同度;積(ji)極利(li)用(yong)傳播媒體，定(ding)(ding)期召開新聞會(hui)(hui)，公(gong)(gong)布相(xiang)(xiang)關風險(xian)信(xin)息和(he)風險(xian)評(ping)估結果;利(li)用(yong)網絡和(he)咨詢(xun)論壇(tan)等最大限度與(yu)社(she)會(hui)(hui)公(gong)(gong)眾交流，滿足其(qi)參與(yu)權(quan)和(he)知情權(quan)，風險(xian)評(ping)估工作(zuo)應深入基層社(she)區，最大限度保護(hu)公(gong)(gong)眾權(quan)益(yi)。

此外(wai)，應創(chuang)新立體多維的食(shi)(shi)品(pin)安(an)全風(feng)險評(ping)估信(xin)息(xi)(xi)(xi)公開制(zhi)(zhi)度(du)。隨著互聯(lian)網(wang)技(ji)術的迅速(su)發展，網(wang)絡(luo)新媒(mei)體拓展了信(xin)息(xi)(xi)(xi)傳播(bo)的空間(jian)和維度(du)，成(cheng)為信(xin)息(xi)(xi)(xi)傳播(bo)的重要渠道(dao)和思想交鋒的主戰場(chang)。監管(guan)部(bu)門要充分認識新媒(mei)體傳播(bo)信(xin)息(xi)(xi)(xi)的重要作用，在利用好(hao)傳統媒(mei)介(jie)的同(tong)時，創(chuang)新食(shi)(shi)品(pin)安(an)全風(feng)險信(xin)息(xi)(xi)(xi)公開制(zhi)(zhi)度(du)，發揮(hui)網(wang)絡(luo)、微(wei)(wei)信(xin)、微(wei)(wei)博、手機新媒(mei)體等新媒(mei)體的傳播(bo)優(you)勢。

最后，明確(que)專(zhuan)家隊伍(wu)的法律責任(ren)。

篇2

一、高度(du)重視雷電災害風險(xian)評估工作

雷(lei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)災(zai)害(hai)風(feng)險(xian)評估是確保防(fang)(fang)雷(lei)安全的(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)要基礎性工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)作之(zhi)一(yi)，是運用科學(xue)的(de)(de)(de)(de)原理方法,對可能遭受雷(lei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)災(zai)害(hai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)概率及雷(lei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)災(zai)害(hai)產生后的(de)(de)(de)(de)嚴重(zhong)程(cheng)度進行分析計(ji)算,提出相應(ying)技術(shu)防(fang)(fang)范措施。因此，組織開展(zhan)雷(lei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)災(zai)害(hai)風(feng)險(xian)評估工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)作是依法履行防(fang)(fang)雷(lei)減災(zai)管理職責的(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)要組成部(bu)(bu)分，也(ye)是防(fang)(fang)雷(lei)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)設(she)計(ji)和施工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)最基本的(de)(de)(de)(de)科學(xue)依據(ju)。各級政府及有關(guan)部(bu)(bu)門(men)要高度重(zhong)視雷(lei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)災(zai)害(hai)風(feng)險(xian)評估工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)作，各級氣象(xiang)和安全監(jian)管部(bu)(bu)門(men)應(ying)把(ba)開展(zhan)雷(lei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)災(zai)害(hai)風(feng)險(xian)評估工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)作作為日常(chang)安全生產檢查(cha)的(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)要內容，科學(xue)有效地預防(fang)(fang)和遏制(zhi)雷(lei)擊事(shi)故的(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)生。

二、全面(mian)做好雷電災害(hai)風(feng)險評估(gu)工作

雷擊(ji)(ji)風險(xian)評(ping)估作(zuo)為社會公(gong)共安(an)全保(bao)障的(de)一項重要工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)，涉及面廣、責任(ren)重大，各(ge)(ge)(ge)有關部(bu)門要按(an)照職(zhi)責分工(gong)(gong)，加強(qiang)協調配合(he)，共同做(zuo)(zuo)好相關工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)。各(ge)(ge)(ge)級氣象主管機構(gou)(gou)要加強(qiang)監督管理和(he)指(zhi)導，依法履行雷擊(ji)(ji)風險(xian)評(ping)估工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)的(de)組織管理職(zhi)責。各(ge)(ge)(ge)級發展(zhan)改革、規劃建設、安(an)全監管等行政主管部(bu)門應當(dang)按(an)照各(ge)(ge)(ge)自職(zhi)責，協同氣象主管機構(gou)(gou)做(zuo)(zuo)好雷擊(ji)(ji)風險(xian)評(ping)估監督管理工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)。承擔雷電災害(hai)風險(xian)評(ping)估工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)的(de)機構(gou)(gou)，必須(xu)根據委托單(dan)位的(de)需要，客觀、科學、準確地提(ti)供評(ping)估結果(guo)。評(ping)估范圍內的(de)業主單(dan)位、項目(mu)設計(ji)單(dan)位應主動配合(he)雷電災害(hai)風險(xian)評(ping)估機構(gou)(gou)做(zuo)(zuo)好雷擊(ji)(ji)風險(xian)評(ping)估工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)。

三、規范實施雷電災害風險評估工作(zuo)

在本市行政區(qu)域內(nei)的大型建設(she)(she)工(gong)程(cheng)、重點工(gong)程(cheng)、危險(xian)易燃易爆環境等(deng)建設(she)(she)項(xiang)目，建設(she)(she)單位(wei)在項(xiang)目可行性研究階段，必須同步做好雷(lei)電風險(xian)評估工(gong)作，設(she)(she)計(ji)(ji)單位(wei)應當把(ba)雷(lei)電風險(xian)評估報(bao)告作為施工(gong)圖(tu)的設(she)(she)計(ji)(ji)依據，根(gen)據報(bao)告要求、防(fang)雷(lei)技術規(gui)范(fan)和標準進(jin)行防(fang)雷(lei)裝置設(she)(she)計(ji)(ji)，切(qie)實從源頭把(ba)好防(fang)雷(lei)安全關，以(yi)確保社會公共(gong)安全。

（一）在本(ben)行(xing)政區(qu)域內應進(jin)行(xing)雷(lei)電災害風險評估(gu)的建設(she)項目(mu)包括：

1、城(cheng)市橋梁、燃氣(qi)、軌(gui)道、供(gong)水、供(gong)熱等公共設(she)施；

2、輸電線路、變電站、發電廠等電力(li)設(she)施、電氣(qi)裝置；

3、石(shi)油、化(hua)工、礦山等易燃易爆(bao)物資和劇毒物質(zhi)生產車間與倉儲設施等爆(bao)炸危險環境；

4、醫院、商場(chang)、學校(xiao)、影劇院和體育館等人員集中的公(gong)共(gong)場(chang)所(suo)；

5、城(cheng)市火車站與鐵路樞紐的主體(ti)工(gong)程；

6、重點建設項目及(ji)高層建筑（建筑高度≥米的建（構）筑物），建筑面(mian)積萬(wan)平(ping)方米及(ji)以上(shang)的住宅小區(qu)；

7、高速公(gong)路的(de)高架橋、Ⅱ類(lei)以(yi)上的(de)機場；

8、其他應當(dang)進(jin)行雷擊風險評估的重(zhong)大建(jian)設工程。

承擔雷(lei)電災害(hai)(hai)風險評估工作(zuo)的機(ji)構,必(bi)須依法取得相應資質證書(shu)，并嚴格執行建設工程雷(lei)電災害(hai)(hai)風險評估技(ji)術規范(fan)等(deng)相關標(biao)準,對評估結(jie)論負責。

（二）雷電(dian)災(zai)害風(feng)險評估(gu)工作的(de)機構(gou)出具的(de)評估(gu)報告(gao)應當包(bao)括下列內容:

1、建設項(xiang)目概況(kuang);

2、基礎資(zi)料(liao)來源(yuan)及其代(dai)表性、可靠性說明,通過現場探測(ce)所取得的資(zi)料(liao),還應當對探測(ce)儀器、探測(ce)方法和探測(ce)環境進行(xing)說明;

3、評估所依據(ju)的標(biao)準、規范(fan)、規程(cheng)和方(fang)法;

4、建(jian)設項目所(suo)在區域的氣候(hou)背景分析;

5、雷擊風險性的(de)評估,極端雷電(dian)事(shi)件出現概率(lv);

6、預防或者減輕(qing)影響的對策和建(jian)議;

7、評估結論和適用性說明;

8、其他有關內容。

四(si)、切實抓好防御雷電(dian)災(zai)害安全(quan)責(ze)任(ren)制落實

各縣、區政(zheng)府(fu)要加(jia)強對防御雷(lei)電災(zai)害(hai)工作的(de)組織領導(dao)，各級安(an)委會成員(yuan)單(dan)(dan)位、行(xing)業主(zhu)管部(bu)門，要積極配(pei)合氣象主(zhu)管機構(gou)督促各單(dan)(dan)位完善和(he)落(luo)實(shi)防雷(lei)電災(zai)害(hai)安(an)全(quan)措(cuo)施，監(jian)督有關單(dan)(dan)位主(zhu)動做好雷(lei)電災(zai)害(hai)風險評(ping)估工作，認真落(luo)實(shi)防雷(lei)設(she)施安(an)全(quan)檢(jian)測(ce)的(de)有關規定，及(ji)時(shi)排查治理雷(lei)擊安(an)全(quan)隱患。

篇3

一(yi)、 工作(zuo)目標和任務

把單位(wei)(wei)風險(xian)(xian)評(ping)估作為重(zhong)(zhong)大(da)(da)決策、重(zhong)(zhong)大(da)(da)政(zheng)策、重(zhong)(zhong)大(da)(da)項(xiang)目(mu)、重(zhong)(zhong)大(da)(da)改革措(cuo)施等制(zhi)定實施的(de)前置程序和(he)必備條件，對重(zhong)(zhong)大(da)(da)事(shi)項(xiang)實施可能(neng)出現(xian)的(de)穩定風險(xian)(xian)先(xian)期預測、先(xian)期評(ping)估、先(xian)期化解，充分尊重(zhong)(zhong)和(he)運(yun)(yun)(yun)用(yong)(yong)預測評(ping)估結果，從(cong)源頭上預防和(he)減少影響單位(wei)(wei)穩定和(he)發展(zhan)問題的(de)發生。重(zhong)(zhong)點圍(wei)繞財(cai)政(zheng)資金分配使用(yong)(yong)、固定資產(chan)監管、項(xiang)目(mu)建(jian)設和(he)科(ke)室職權(quan)運(yun)(yun)(yun)行等方面，從(cong)科(ke)室層面和(he)個人崗位(wei)(wei)層面著(zhu)手(shou)，認(ren)真梳理工(gong)作流程，明確(que)業務(wu)環(huan)節，查找業務(wu)風險(xian)(xian)，制(zhi)定防控措(cuo)施，建(jian)立健全(quan)權(quan)責對等、制(zhi)衡有方、運(yun)(yun)(yun)行順暢、執行有力、管理科(ke)學(xue)的(de)內(nei)(nei)部(bu)控制(zhi)體系，制(zhi)定符合(he)單位(wei)(wei)實際(ji)的(de)內(nei)(nei)部(bu)控制(zhi)制(zhi)度(du)，編制(zhi)完成單位(wei)(wei)《內(nei)(nei)部(bu)控制(zhi)手(shou)冊(ce)》。

二、 風險評估與控制范圍(wei)

本次風險評估單位涉及的業務(wu)范圍分為：科(ke)室層(ceng)面(mian)風險和崗(gang)位業務(wu)活動層(ceng)面(mian)風險。

1、科室層(ceng)面(mian)風險(xian)主(zhu)要包括：科室內部崗(gang)位設置(zhi)不(bu)合(he)(he)理(li)、 崗(gang)位職責不(bu)清晰、關(guan)鍵崗(gang)位勝任(ren)能力不(bu)足、內部控制管理(li)機 制不(bu)健全(quan)等情況導致的風險(xian)； 經濟(ji)活動決策機制不(bu)科學(xue)，決策程序(xu)不(bu)合(he)(he)理(li)或未執行導致的風險(xian)。

 2、崗位業務活動層面風險：主要包(bao)括經費收支、物資采購、資產管理(li)(li)、建設項目(mu)管理(li)(li)、合同(tong)管理(li)(li)以及其他風險； 本(ben)科室(shi)職(zhi)能業務開展過程中(zhong)存在的管理(li)(li)風險，如辦證、查辦 案(an)件、處(chu)理(li)(li)投訴舉(ju)報等工作中(zhong)的風險。

三、活動(dong)步驟與時(shi)間安(an)排(pai)

本次風險評估是(shi)在單(dan)位全(quan)(quan)面推進(jin)內(nei)部(bu)控制建設工作(zuo)領(ling)導(dao)小組的(de)領(ling)導(dao)下、各(ge)職能科室全(quan)(quan)面參與的(de)專項活動(dong)。其主要步驟(zou)包括：

（1）8月中下旬(xun)，單位全面推進內部控制建設工(gong)作(zuo)領導小組(zu)(zu)研究制定了風(feng)險評估工(gong)作(zuo)計劃(hua)，明確風(feng)險評估的目標和任務；單位里組(zu)(zu)織(zhi)召開了由各處室負責人參加的專題(ti)會議，對風(feng)險評估活動做出了動員(yuan)、培(pei)訓(xun)和安排；

（2）會后，各科室先(xian)進(jin)行(xing)自(zi)(zi)查(cha)，查(cha)找風(feng)險點(dian)，研究整改措施，形成科室工(gong)(gong)作風(feng)險評估(gu)報告(gao)，單(dan)位全(quan)面推(tui)(tui)進(jin)內部控制(zhi)建設(she)工(gong)(gong)作領導(dao)(dao)小組(zu)根據各科室的(de)自(zi)(zi)查(cha)情況，選擇關鍵(jian)科室進(jin)行(xing)重(zhong)點(dian)檢查(cha)；單(dan)位全(quan)面推(tui)(tui)進(jin)內部控制(zhi)建設(she)工(gong)(gong)作領導(dao)(dao)小組(zu)綜合各科室自(zi)(zi)查(cha)情況和抽查(cha)情況，進(jin)行(xing)風(feng)險分析，組(zu)織編寫(xie)風(feng)險評估(gu)報告(gao)。

（3）12月初，總結風(feng)險評估(gu)和整(zheng)改情況，在此基礎(chu)上制(zhi)定符(fu)合單(dan)位實(shi)際(ji)的內(nei)部控(kong)制(zhi)制(zhi)度，編制(zhi)完成學校《內(nei)部控(kong) 制(zhi)手冊》。

篇4

關鍵詞：勘(kan)察(cha)工作 前期(qi)勘(kan)察(cha) 雷擊災害風(feng)險 風(feng)險評估

中圖分類號：P413 文獻標(biao)識(shi)碼(ma)：A 文章編號：1674-098X（2013）01（b）-0-01

雷(lei)(lei)(lei)擊(ji)防護(hu)是一項系統工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)，涉及建筑、電子信息等多(duo)個領域的(de)知識，由(you)于(yu)人才(cai)的(de)缺(que)乏(fa)(fa)，很多(duo)從事防雷(lei)(lei)(lei)擊(ji)工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)設計的(de)人員(yuan)往(wang)往(wang)在(zai)這方(fang)面卻較(jiao)為缺(que)乏(fa)(fa)，對(dui)(dui)防雷(lei)(lei)(lei)減災工(gong)(gong)作帶來(lai)了(le)一定的(de)影響。由(you)于(yu)以往(wang)對(dui)(dui)雷(lei)(lei)(lei)擊(ji)災害風險(xian)(xian)(xian)評估工(gong)(gong)作重(zhong)視不(bu)夠，導致工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)項目(mu)在(zai)防雷(lei)(lei)(lei)裝置設計和施工(gong)(gong)中受到較(jiao)大影響，甚至造(zao)成嚴重(zhong)的(de)雷(lei)(lei)(lei)擊(ji)事故，因此，加強對(dui)(dui)雷(lei)(lei)(lei)擊(ji)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)評估工(gong)(gong)作的(de)重(zhong)視程(cheng)度，科學合理的(de)開展好雷(lei)(lei)(lei)擊(ji)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)評估工(gong)(gong)作意義重(zhong)大。

1 雷(lei)擊(ji)災害風險評估(gu)前期勘察工作(zuo)的意義

雷(lei)(lei)擊(ji)(ji)災害(hai)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)評估(gu)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)作(zuo)是雷(lei)(lei)擊(ji)(ji)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)管理(li)的(de)(de)重要環節，為(wei)(wei)雷(lei)(lei)擊(ji)(ji)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)管理(li)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)作(zuo)提供必要的(de)(de)基礎(chu)，也(ye)是進(jin)(jin)(jin)行防雷(lei)(lei)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)設計和施工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)的(de)(de)依據。根據中國氣象局8號令和11號令的(de)(de)要求(qiu)，雷(lei)(lei)擊(ji)(ji)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)評估(gu)是一項不可或缺的(de)(de)基礎(chu)性(xing)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)，雷(lei)(lei)擊(ji)(ji)災害(hai)評估(gu)的(de)(de)根本(ben)目的(de)(de)是對(dui)(dui)雷(lei)(lei)擊(ji)(ji)產生的(de)(de)直(zhi)接或間接的(de)(de)建筑物損害(hai)程(cheng)度和遭到雷(lei)(lei)擊(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)因子進(jin)(jin)(jin)行科學的(de)(de)評估(gu)，包括防雷(lei)(lei)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)的(de)(de)規劃、設計，對(dui)(dui)現場(chang)的(de)(de)地質情況及氣候(hou)條件等環境進(jin)(jin)(jin)行必要的(de)(de)勘察(cha)和測繪，為(wei)(wei)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)評估(gu)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)作(zuo)的(de)(de)順利開展(zhan)提供真(zhen)實(shi)的(de)(de)、準確(que)的(de)(de)依據。高質量的(de)(de)雷(lei)(lei)擊(ji)(ji)災害(hai)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)前期勘察(cha)報(bao)告，能夠(gou)為(wei)(wei)防雷(lei)(lei)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)提供準確(que)的(de)(de)參考，保證各項工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)的(de)(de)安全(quan)性(xing)和可靠性(xing)。

2 防雷工(gong)程前期(qi)勘(kan)察(cha)的內容

2.1 勘(kan)察收集防護區域的基本資料

在資料(liao)中，包(bao)括勘察建(jian)(jian)筑物的(de)地理、地質、土壤、氣象、環境(jing)等條件和雷電(dian)活動規律，以及被保護建(jian)(jian)筑的(de)特點(dian)等，通(tong)(tong)過這些(xie)資料(liao)能夠真實、全(quan)(quan)面的(de)反映(ying)出建(jian)(jian)筑物周邊的(de)環境(jing)特點(dian)。這些(xie)資料(liao)可(ke)以由被評估單位提供，如果提供的(de)資料(liao)不充分(fen)、不全(quan)(quan)面，也(ye)可(ke)以向當地相關部門(men)進行原始(shi)資料(liao)的(de)查詢和收集。具體應當包(bao)括：建(jian)(jian)筑的(de)總平面圖、地形、地貌、交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)情(qing)況(kuang)、地物狀(zhuang)況(kuang)以及雷電(dian)活動狀(zhuang)況(kuang)等。

2.2 施工區(qu)域(yu)的地質資料

在(zai)不同(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)地(di)(di)(di)區有著(zhu)不同(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)地(di)(di)(di)質地(di)(di)(di)形，這也是決定接地(di)(di)(di)工程難度的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)重要(yao)因(yin)素(su)，同(tong)時也對(dui)(dui)雷(lei)擊(ji)概(gai)率有著(zhu)較大的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影響，因(yin)此要(yao)有詳細(xi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)地(di)(di)(di)質資料作(zuo)為(wei)(wei)依據。第(di)一(yi)，應當對(dui)(dui)施(shi)(shi)工現場(chang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)土質、巖石的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)成分比例(li)、周(zhou)圍(wei)是否存在(zai)金屬礦等(deng)進行勘(kan)察，第(di)二，對(dui)(dui)于施(shi)(shi)工區域(yu)周(zhou)圍(wei)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)土壤(rang)(rang)電阻率進行勘(kan)測，如(ru)果測量(liang)獲得的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)數值較大，則要(yao)考(kao)慮對(dui)(dui)測量(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)范圍(wei)進行適當的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)擴展，這樣便能夠對(dui)(dui)周(zhou)圍(wei)土壤(rang)(rang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)導電能力有更為(wei)(wei)全面的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)了(le)解。第(di)三，通過對(dui)(dui)于使(shi)用年限較長、接地(di)(di)(di)穩定性要(yao)求高的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)工程（如(ru)埋地(di)(di)(di)油罐）還應測量(liang)土壤(rang)(rang)酸堿性。第(di)四，對(dui)(dui)該施(shi)(shi)工地(di)(di)(di)點(dian)曾經是否有過雷(lei)擊(ji)事(shi)故(gu)進行了(le)解，對(dui)(dui)發生雷(lei)擊(ji)事(shi)故(gu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)原因(yin)進行分析(xi)，做好(hao)記錄(lu)，為(wei)(wei)防護工作(zuo)提供參考(kao)。

2.3 被保護對象的資料

第一，要(yao)了解(jie)被(bei)保護對象的(de)(de)用途，是作(zuo)為(wei)居住，或者生產，或者是存儲(chu)(chu)，如(ru)果不(bu)是居住，則要(yao)了解(jie)具體(ti)(ti)的(de)(de)生產和存儲(chu)(chu)的(de)(de)物品特性(xing)(xing)，從生產設備到工藝流程，從存儲(chu)(chu)的(de)(de)原料到商品的(de)(de)成品，都應(ying)當有(you)(you)詳細的(de)(de)了解(jie)，只有(you)(you)這樣才能保證(zheng)(zheng)防(fang)雷工程體(ti)(ti)現出更強(qiang)的(de)(de)針對性(xing)(xing)和可靠性(xing)(xing)。當存儲(chu)(chu)的(de)(de)物品帶(dai)有(you)(you)一定危險(xian)性(xing)(xing)時，則需(xu)要(yao)按照(zhao)不(bu)同(tong)的(de)(de)防(fang)雷級別做好相應(ying)的(de)(de)防(fang)靜(jing)電(dian)措施(shi)。雷擊(ji)風險(xian)災害的(de)(de)評估工作(zuo)也(ye)需(xu)要(yao)根據(ju)不(bu)同(tong)的(de)(de)保護對象來實現對防(fang)雷級別的(de)(de)劃(hua)分(fen)，而且需(xu)要(yao)根據(ju)被(bei)保護對象的(de)(de)具置(zhi)分(fen)布(bu)以(yi)及(ji)體(ti)(ti)積(ji)大(da)小來確定詳細的(de)(de)數據(ju)，對其(qi)周(zhou)圍的(de)(de)建筑物高度和防(fang)雷設備的(de)(de)安(an)裝等問題也(ye)要(yao)有(you)(you)全(quan)(quan)面(mian)的(de)(de)了解(jie)，只有(you)(you)保證(zheng)(zheng)相關資料的(de)(de)完整(zheng)性(xing)(xing)才能夠保證(zheng)(zheng)數據(ju)信息的(de)(de)全(quan)(quan)面(mian)性(xing)(xing)和準確性(xing)(xing)。

第二，對建筑(zhu)物(wu)本(ben)身(shen)的(de)(de)(de)樓(lou)層高度(du)以及本(ben)身(shen)的(de)(de)(de)電(dian)子(zi)信(xin)息設(she)備(bei)的(de)(de)(de)安(an)(an)裝情況(kuang)(kuang)進行了(le)解(jie)。當前的(de)(de)(de)建筑(zhu)物(wu)中使(shi)用了(le)大(da)量(liang)的(de)(de)(de)電(dian)子(zi)信(xin)息系統設(she)備(bei)，而且有著十分廣泛的(de)(de)(de)分布(bu)，這些設(she)備(bei)的(de)(de)(de)分布(bu)狀況(kuang)(kuang)與雷電(dian)電(dian)磁脈沖防(fang)護設(she)計有著密切的(de)(de)(de)關系，其(qi)是確(que)定SPD種(zhong)類、數(shu)(shu)量(liang)以及安(an)(an)裝位置的(de)(de)(de)重要依據。同時需要根據屋面保護設(she)備(bei)的(de)(de)(de)分布(bu)情況(kuang)(kuang)來(lai)確(que)定避雷針和避雷帶的(de)(de)(de)數(shu)(shu)量(liang)和安(an)(an)裝高度(du)。

第(di)三，了(le)解工程相關的設備和人員分(fen)布的詳細情況(kuang)，對現場的管道、通(tong)信電纜、電力(li)線(xian)路的埋設位置(zhi)、深(shen)度(du)、走向(xiang)等有準確的把握。

3 撰(zhuan)寫(xie)雷擊(ji)災(zai)害風(feng)險評估報告(gao)

雷(lei)擊災(zai)害風險(xian)評估報(bao)(bao)告是(shi)利用(yong)勘察中取得數據和資料通(tong)過存在各風險(xian)因子(zi)的(de)(de)估算進行歸納分析得出(chu)的(de)(de)雷(lei)擊風險(xian)報(bao)(bao)告，是(shi)防雷(lei)工程設計和施工的(de)(de)重要依據。對于雷(lei)擊災(zai)害風險(xian)評估報(bao)(bao)告來(lai)說，不僅要保證其(qi)數據信(xin)息的(de)(de)真實性(xing)和完整性(xing)，同時(shi)也(ye)應當具備相應的(de)(de)工程資料，以此來(lai)保證其(qi)內容的(de)(de)完整性(xing)。

在雷(lei)擊(ji)(ji)災害風險評(ping)(ping)估報(bao)告中(zhong)包(bao)含以下基本內(nei)容(rong)：被評(ping)(ping)估的防雷(lei)工程的概(gai)況；該評(ping)(ping)估區(qu)域內(nei)的地(di)質條件、大(da)氣環境(jing)以及雷(lei)電分(fen)布的特點等，同時也(ye)應當(dang)(dang)包(bao)括當(dang)(dang)地(di)的社會環境(jing)和(he)服(fu)務設(she)施等全(quan)面的描述(shu)；在勘察工作進行過程中(zhong)所涉及到的評(ping)(ping)估標(biao)準和(he)依據(ju)；雷(lei)電截收面積、雷(lei)擊(ji)(ji)次數(shu)以及對雷(lei)擊(ji)(ji)風險評(ping)(ping)估計算(suan)的數(shu)值(zhi)；不同數(shu)據(ju)的記錄和(he)匯總信息(xi)，以及勘察工作的最終結論。

4 結語

雷(lei)擊災害風(feng)險評估是(shi)防雷(lei)減災工作(zuo)的一(yi)個(ge)重要組成部分，是(shi)否能夠獲得科學(xue)、準確的雷(lei)擊風(feng)險數據(ju)對于(yu)防雷(lei)裝置設計、施工都有著十分重要的影響(xiang)。

因此雷(lei)(lei)擊災害(hai)風(feng)險評估前的(de)勘(kan)察(cha)工(gong)(gong)作，必須做到認真(zhen)、細(xi)致，勘(kan)察(cha)內容全面(mian)，勘(kan)察(cha)數據(ju)真(zhen)實(shi)，為防雷(lei)(lei)減災系(xi)統工(gong)(gong)作中的(de)設計與施工(gong)(gong)提供科(ke)學依據(ju)。

參考文獻

[1] 劉(liu)杰，朱云鳳，田(tian)芳，等.淺(qian)析雷擊災害(hai)風險評估工作存在(zai)的問題及建議[C]//2011年(nian)第二十(shi)八屆中國氣象學(xue)會年(nian)會.2011.

[2] 鄧春，林季，嚴飛，等(deng).基于雷電定位(wei)數據的區域雷擊災害風險(xian)評(ping)估(gu)方(fang)法探討[J].南(nan)京信息工程大學(xue)學(xue)報(bao)，2010

（3）.

[3] 謝海華，曾山泊，肖穩安.電(dian)子信息系統(tong)雷災風險評(ping)估方法[J].氣(qi)象科(ke)學，2006（3）.

篇5

（上(shang)海(hai)格林曼環境技術有限公司，上(shang)海(hai) 210000）

摘要(yao)：隨著我(wo)(wo)國(guo)污(wu)(wu)染場地環(huan)境管(guan)理水平的(de)不斷提升，風(feng)(feng)險評(ping)(ping)估(gu)已成為(wei)場地環(huan)境調查(cha)和修復(fu)中間必不可(ke)少的(de)一個環(huan)節(jie)，國(guo)家和地方層面也相繼頒布(bu)了(le)一系列(lie)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)規范文件以指(zhi)導污(wu)(wu)染場地風(feng)(feng)險評(ping)(ping)估(gu)工(gong)作(zuo)的(de)開(kai)展。以場地風(feng)(feng)險評(ping)(ping)估(gu)的(de)工(gong)作(zuo)程序為(wei)主線，依次對國(guo)家和地方技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)規范文件確(que)定的(de)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)路(lu)線和主要(yao)工(gong)作(zuo)內容的(de)異同點進(jin)行了(le)比較分析，并(bing)對完善我(wo)(wo)國(guo)污(wu)(wu)染場地風(feng)(feng)險評(ping)(ping)估(gu)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)方法體系提出了(le)相關建議。

關鍵詞 ：污染場(chang)地；風險評(ping)估；技術方法

中圖分類號：X82 文(wen)獻標(biao)識碼：A 文(wen)章(zhang)編號：1008－9500（2015）07－0047－06

收稿日期(qi)：2015－06－09

作者簡(jian)介：李春平(ping)（1988－），女，遼寧阜新(xin)人(ren)，碩士研究生(sheng)，主要從事污染(ran)場地風險評估與(yu)場地修(xiu)復(fu)方面(mian)的研究。

近年(nian)來(lai)，隨著(zhu)城(cheng)市(shi)化(hua)進(jin)程的加快及產業(ye)結構的快速調整(zheng)，我國大中(zhong)城(cheng)市(shi)多(duo)種行(xing)業(ye)企業(ye)的關閉和(he)搬遷一直(zhi)在(zai)(zai)持續(xu)進(jin)行(xing)，由(you)此(ci)遺留(liu)的潛在(zai)(zai)污染(ran)場地(di)的環(huan)境(jing)管理工作正受到國家和(he)地(di)方(fang)層(ceng)面越來(lai)越多(duo)的關注和(he)重視。

早(zao)在2009年(nian)(nian)10月(yue)，北(bei)京市(shi)就開始實施《場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)地(di)環(huan)境(jing)(jing)(jing)評(ping)(ping)(ping)價導則(ze)》（DB11/T 656-2009）［1］（北(bei)京導則(ze)），以規范(fan)(fan)北(bei)京市(shi)污(wu)(wu)(wu)染場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)地(di)的(de)(de)(de)環(huan)境(jing)(jing)(jing)評(ping)(ping)(ping)價和風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)流(liu)程(cheng)，防止潛在污(wu)(wu)(wu)染場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)地(di)的(de)(de)(de)開發利(li)用(yong)危害群眾健(jian)康。2010年(nian)(nian)1月(yue)，重慶市(shi)頒布《重慶場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)地(di)環(huan)境(jing)(jing)(jing)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)指南(nan)》［2］（重慶指南(nan)），從場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)地(di)環(huan)境(jing)(jing)(jing)調查(cha)、風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)及(ji)修(xiu)復方案3方面規定了(le)重慶市(shi)污(wu)(wu)(wu)染場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)地(di)環(huan)境(jing)(jing)(jing)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)和修(xiu)復工作要(yao)求。2011年(nian)(nian)8月(yue)，北(bei)京市(shi)《場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)地(di)土壤環(huan)境(jing)(jing)(jing)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)價篩(shai)(shai)選(xuan)值》（DB11/T 811-2011）［3］（北(bei)京篩(shai)(shai)選(xuan)值），作為潛在污(wu)(wu)(wu)染場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)地(di)開發利(li)用(yong)時(shi)是(shi)否需(xu)要(yao)開展(zhan)環(huan)境(jing)(jing)(jing)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)價的(de)(de)(de)判(pan)定依據。2013年(nian)(nian)6月(yue)，浙江(jiang)省(sheng)頒布《污(wu)(wu)(wu)染場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)地(di)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)導則(ze)》（DB33/T 892-2013）［4］（浙江(jiang)導則(ze)），詳細規范(fan)(fan)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)的(de)(de)(de)整個流(liu)程(cheng)，并提(ti)出(chu)浙江(jiang)省(sheng)適用(yong)的(de)(de)(de)部分關注(zhu)污(wu)(wu)(wu)染物的(de)(de)(de)土壤風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)篩(shai)(shai)選(xuan)值。2014年(nian)(nian)2月(yue)，國(guo)(guo)家環(huan)境(jing)(jing)(jing)保(bao)護部《污(wu)(wu)(wu)染場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)地(di)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)導則(ze)》（HJ25.3-2014）［5］（國(guo)(guo)家導則(ze)），從國(guo)(guo)家層(ceng)面規范(fan)(fan)了(le)污(wu)(wu)(wu)染場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)地(di)人(ren)體健(jian)康風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)工作。2014年(nian)(nian)10月(yue)，上(shang)(shang)(shang)海市(shi)制定《上(shang)(shang)(shang)海市(shi)污(wu)(wu)(wu)染場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)地(di)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)規范(fan)(fan)》（試行）［6］（上(shang)(shang)(shang)海規范(fan)(fan)），以規范(fan)(fan)上(shang)(shang)(shang)海市(shi)污(wu)(wu)(wu)染場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)地(di)人(ren)體健(jian)康風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)的(de)(de)(de)原則(ze)、內(nei)容、程(cheng)序、方法和技(ji)術(shu)(shu)要(yao)求。

人體健康的(de)(de)(de)定量風險評(ping)估已(yi)成為我國(guo)污(wu)染(ran)場地(di)管(guan)理(li)體系(xi)中必不可(ke)少的(de)(de)(de)技(ji)術(shu)手段［7］。本文以污(wu)染(ran)場地(di)風險評(ping)估的(de)(de)(de)工作程(cheng)序(xu)為主線，依次(ci)對(dui)國(guo)家(jia)導則和各個地(di)方(fang)技(ji)術(shu)規范文件確定的(de)(de)(de)技(ji)術(shu)路線和主要工作內容的(de)(de)(de)異同點進(jin)行了(le)全面的(de)(de)(de)比較分析，并對(dui)完善我國(guo)污(wu)染(ran)場地(di)風險評(ping)估技(ji)術(shu)方(fang)法體系(xi)提出了(le)相關建設。

1風險評(ping)估的工作內容和程序

國家(jia)(jia)導(dao)(dao)則(ze)按照污(wu)染(ran)場(chang)地(di)(di)風(feng)險(xian)評(ping)估(gu)的(de)工(gong)作流程將其劃(hua)分(fen)為5部分(fen)：危害識別(bie)、暴露評(ping)估(gu)、毒(du)性評(ping)估(gu)、風(feng)險(xian)表(biao)征和(he)控制值計算。地(di)(di)方導(dao)(dao)則(ze)中(zhong)，浙江導(dao)(dao)則(ze)和(he)上海(hai)規范中(zhong)風(feng)險(xian)評(ping)估(gu)的(de)工(gong)作程序與國家(jia)(jia)導(dao)(dao)則(ze)保持一致。北京導(dao)(dao)則(ze)中(zhong)，風(feng)險(xian)評(ping)估(gu)作為場(chang)地(di)(di)環境(jing)評(ping)價中(zhong)污(wu)染(ran)識別(bie)和(he)現場(chang)采樣(yang)分(fen)析后的(de)第三階段，主要(yao)內容為建立場(chang)地(di)(di)概念模型、進(jin)行(xing)風(feng)險(xian)計算、確定(ding)(ding)修(xiu)(xiu)復(fu)目標(biao)并(bing)劃(hua)定(ding)(ding)修(xiu)(xiu)復(fu)范圍。重(zhong)慶(qing)指(zhi)南中(zhong)，首先要(yao)求對(dui)第一階段場(chang)地(di)(di)污(wu)染(ran)調查進(jin)行(xing)了(le)(le)工(gong)作回顧，在補充污(wu)染(ran)調查的(de)基礎上，提(ti)出了(le)(le)暴露分(fen)析、毒(du)性分(fen)析和(he)風(feng)險(xian)評(ping)估(gu)的(de)要(yao)求，并(bing)要(yao)求在污(wu)染(ran)土(tu)壤修(xiu)(xiu)復(fu)方案中(zhong)提(ti)出土(tu)壤的(de)修(xiu)(xiu)復(fu)標(biao)準(zhun)，重(zhong)慶(qing)指(zhi)南中(zhong)同樣(yang)未(wei)涉及地(di)(di)下水的(de)修(xiu)(xiu)復(fu)標(biao)準(zhun)。

國家導則(ze)和地(di)方(fang)導則(ze)中關(guan)于風險(xian)評(ping)估工作內容的規定比(bi)較見表1。

由(you)表1可見(jian)，國家導則(ze)(ze)和地(di)方導則(ze)(ze)中風險評(ping)估的(de)(de)主(zhu)要工作程(cheng)序(xu)基本保持(chi)一致，只有北京(jing)導則(ze)(ze)在工作程(cheng)序(xu)中未(wei)明確提及(ji)毒性評(ping)估，僅(jin)在附件(jian)中列舉了(le)一些(xie)常見(jian)污染物(wu)的(de)(de)毒性參數，作為污染物(wu)毒性評(ping)估的(de)(de)參考(kao)依據。

2危害(hai)識別與(yu)篩選值

2.1危害識別

危害識別為污(wu)染(ran)場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)地(di)(di)(di)(di)風險評估(gu)的第一階(jie)段。國家導則中(zhong)，此階(jie)段需獲取如下(xia)場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)地(di)(di)(di)(di)信息(xi)：詳盡的場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)地(di)(di)(di)(di)相(xiang)關資(zi)料(liao)及歷史(shi)信息(xi)、場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)地(di)(di)(di)(di)土(tu)壤和地(di)(di)(di)(di)下(xia)水樣品中(zhong)污(wu)染(ran)物的濃(nong)度數據(ju)、場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)地(di)(di)(di)(di)土(tu)壤的理化性質分析數據(ju)以及場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)地(di)(di)(di)(di)氣(qi)候、水文(wen)及地(di)(di)(di)(di)質特(te)征(zheng)信息(xi)數據(ju)等，并要求(qiu)明(ming)確場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)地(di)(di)(di)(di)及周邊地(di)(di)(di)(di)塊的土(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)利用方式，在(zai)此基礎上來確定(ding)場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)地(di)(di)(di)(di)的敏(min)感(gan)受(shou)體，并結合(he)相(xiang)應篩選(xuan)值通過一定(ding)的技術方法來確定(ding)場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)地(di)(di)(di)(di)的關注污(wu)染(ran)物。

北京導(dao)則中(zhong)(zhong)雖未(wei)(wei)明(ming)確(que)(que)提出危害(hai)識(shi)別(bie)這一(yi)(yi)階(jie)段(duan)(duan)，但(dan)在場(chang)(chang)地環(huan)境評價(jia)的(de)第(di)(di)一(yi)(yi)階(jie)段(duan)(duan)污染(ran)識(shi)別(bie)及第(di)(di)二階(jie)段(duan)(duan)現(xian)場(chang)(chang)勘(kan)查(cha)與(yu)采樣分(fen)析中(zhong)(zhong)分(fen)別(bie)提及資(zi)料(liao)收集及污染(ran)識(shi)別(bie)等(deng)相關內(nei)容，并在第(di)(di)三(san)階(jie)段(duan)(duan)風險(xian)評價(jia)的(de)“建立場(chang)(chang)地概念模型(xing)”中(zhong)(zhong)，明(ming)確(que)(que)在此過程(cheng)中(zhong)(zhong)需要確(que)(que)定污染(ran)源、未(wei)(wei)來用(yong)地方式并確(que)(que)定污染(ran)場(chang)(chang)地受影響(xiang)的(de)人(ren)群。重慶指南中(zhong)(zhong)場(chang)(chang)地環(huan)境風險(xian)評估(gu)程(cheng)序中(zhong)(zhong)提及了污染(ran)源分(fen)析階(jie)段(duan)(duan)，但(dan)其資(zi)料(liao)調(diao)(diao)查(cha)分(fen)析及采樣分(fen)析分(fen)別(bie)在場(chang)(chang)地環(huan)境調(diao)(diao)查(cha)及污染(ran)調(diao)(diao)查(cha)工作回(hui)顧中(zhong)(zhong)進行，土地利用(yong)方式、敏感受體(ti)及關注污染(ran)物則在暴露分(fen)析中(zhong)(zhong)進行詳細闡(chan)述。浙江導(dao)則和上海規范中(zhong)(zhong)危害(hai)識(shi)別(bie)階(jie)段(duan)(duan)的(de)內(nei)容與(yu)國(guo)家導(dao)則保持一(yi)(yi)致。

需要指(zhi)出的(de)(de)是，在確定場(chang)地敏(min)(min)(min)感(gan)(gan)受(shou)(shou)(shou)體(ti)(ti)時(shi)，除考(kao)慮居住人群(qun)等(deng)敏(min)(min)(min)感(gan)(gan)人群(qun)外，國(guo)家導則(ze)、浙江導則(ze)和(he)上海規范均考(kao)慮了土壤污染對地下(xia)水(shui)的(de)(de)影響，將地下(xia)水(shui)同樣列(lie)為(wei)敏(min)(min)(min)感(gan)(gan)受(shou)(shou)(shou)體(ti)(ti)之一。北京導則(ze)在此階段提(ti)及的(de)(de)敏(min)(min)(min)感(gan)(gan)受(shou)(shou)(shou)體(ti)(ti)僅(jin)涉及受(shou)(shou)(shou)影響的(de)(de)人群(qun)，而(er)重慶指(zhi)南(nan)在風險暴(bao)露評估分析中(zhong)提(ti)及的(de)(de)敏(min)(min)(min)感(gan)(gan)受(shou)(shou)(shou)體(ti)(ti)包括(kuo)居民和(he)臨時(shi)活動人員，但均未(wei)考(kao)慮地下(xia)水(shui)體(ti)(ti)等(deng)其(qi)他(ta)可能的(de)(de)受(shou)(shou)(shou)體(ti)(ti)。

部分(fen)地(di)方導(dao)則將危害識別階段(duan)與場地(di)環(huan)境調查或其他相關工作(zuo)階段(duan)一同進行(xing)闡(chan)述，而(er)國家導(dao)則對此的技(ji)術(shu)要求(qiu)則相對清晰完整(zheng)。

2.2篩選值

在(zai)進(jin)行(xing)關(guan)注污染物的初篩時，一(yi)般應用篩選值作為判定是(shi)否開(kai)展土壤或地(di)下(xia)水環境風險(xian)評價的啟動(dong)值。

國(guo)家導則(ze)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)雖暫未(wei)制(zhi)定(ding)污(wu)染(ran)物(wu)的(de)(de)(de)土(tu)(tu)(tu)壤(rang)和(he)地(di)(di)(di)下(xia)(xia)水(shui)(shui)(shui)篩(shai)(shai)(shai)(shai)選(xuan)(xuan)(xuan)值(zhi)(zhi)，然而環境(jing)保(bao)護(hu)部(bu)已《建設(she)用(yong)地(di)(di)(di)土(tu)(tu)(tu)壤(rang)污(wu)染(ran)風險篩(shai)(shai)(shai)(shai)選(xuan)(xuan)(xuan)指導值(zhi)(zhi)》（征求(qiu)意見稿(gao)），待正式(shi)后(hou)可(ke)作為(wei)(wei)國(guo)家層面(mian)篩(shai)(shai)(shai)(shai)選(xuan)(xuan)(xuan)土(tu)(tu)(tu)壤(rang)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)關(guan)注污(wu)染(ran)物(wu)的(de)(de)(de)參(can)(can)考(kao)(kao)。北京市(shi)有(you)一套(tao)完整的(de)(de)(de)土(tu)(tu)(tu)壤(rang)篩(shai)(shai)(shai)(shai)選(xuan)(xuan)(xuan)值(zhi)(zhi)［3］，共制(zhi)定(ding)了(le)88種(zhong)污(wu)染(ran)物(wu)的(de)(de)(de)土(tu)(tu)(tu)壤(rang)篩(shai)(shai)(shai)(shai)選(xuan)(xuan)(xuan)值(zhi)(zhi)，可(ke)以作為(wei)(wei)北京市(shi)場地(di)(di)(di)土(tu)(tu)(tu)壤(rang)環境(jing)風險評價(jia)(jia)的(de)(de)(de)參(can)(can)考(kao)(kao)啟動值(zhi)(zhi)。重(zhong)慶指南中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，對(dui)于未(wei)來(lai)用(yong)地(di)(di)(di)性質沒有(you)明確規定(ding)時(shi)，要求(qiu)應用(yong)《展覽會用(yong)地(di)(di)(di)土(tu)(tu)(tu)壤(rang)環境(jing)質量評價(jia)(jia)標(biao)(biao)準(zhun)（暫行）》（HJ 350-2007）［8］（展覽會用(yong)地(di)(di)(di)標(biao)(biao)準(zhun)）A級標(biao)(biao)準(zhun)對(dui)污(wu)染(ran)物(wu)進行篩(shai)(shai)(shai)(shai)選(xuan)(xuan)(xuan)。浙江(jiang)導則(ze)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)同樣列舉了(le)88種(zhong)污(wu)染(ran)物(wu)的(de)(de)(de)土(tu)(tu)(tu)壤(rang)風險評估篩(shai)(shai)(shai)(shai)選(xuan)(xuan)(xuan)值(zhi)(zhi)，作為(wei)(wei)當地(di)(di)(di)土(tu)(tu)(tu)壤(rang)關(guan)注污(wu)染(ran)物(wu)篩(shai)(shai)(shai)(shai)選(xuan)(xuan)(xuan)的(de)(de)(de)參(can)(can)考(kao)(kao)依據。上海目(mu)前要求(qiu)分(fen)別應用(yong)展覽會用(yong)地(di)(di)(di)標(biao)(biao)準(zhun)A級標(biao)(biao)準(zhun)和(he)《地(di)(di)(di)下(xia)(xia)水(shui)(shui)(shui)質量標(biao)(biao)準(zhun)》（GB/T 14848-93）［9］（地(di)(di)(di)下(xia)(xia)水(shui)(shui)(shui)國(guo)標(biao)(biao)）Ⅲ類(lei)標(biao)(biao)準(zhun)及其他相關(guan)的(de)(de)(de)環境(jing)質量標(biao)(biao)準(zhun)對(dui)土(tu)(tu)(tu)壤(rang)和(he)地(di)(di)(di)下(xia)(xia)水(shui)(shui)(shui)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)污(wu)染(ran)物(wu)進行篩(shai)(shai)(shai)(shai)選(xuan)(xuan)(xuan)。目(mu)前看(kan)來(lai)，除上海參(can)(can)考(kao)(kao)地(di)(di)(di)下(xia)(xia)水(shui)(shui)(shui)國(guo)標(biao)(biao)進行地(di)(di)(di)下(xia)(xia)水(shui)(shui)(shui)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)污(wu)染(ran)物(wu)的(de)(de)(de)篩(shai)(shai)(shai)(shai)選(xuan)(xuan)(xuan)外，國(guo)家和(he)其他各地(di)(di)(di)方(fang)均(jun)暫未(wei)制(zhi)定(ding)地(di)(di)(di)下(xia)(xia)水(shui)(shui)(shui)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)污(wu)染(ran)物(wu)的(de)(de)(de)篩(shai)(shai)(shai)(shai)選(xuan)(xuan)(xuan)值(zhi)(zhi)。

對(dui)比(bi)北京(jing)和浙江的(de)土(tu)(tu)壤篩(shai)選(xuan)值(zhi)，污(wu)(wu)染(ran)物(wu)的(de)種類(lei)及(ji)篩(shai)選(xuan)值(zhi)均(jun)相同(tong)。北京(jing)篩(shai)選(xuan)值(zhi)中(zhong)單獨制定了(le)公園(yuan)與(yu)(yu)綠地(di)(di)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)地(di)(di)方式(shi)(shi)的(de)土(tu)(tu)壤篩(shai)選(xuan)值(zhi)，與(yu)(yu)住宅用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)地(di)(di)相比(bi)，公園(yuan)與(yu)(yu)綠地(di)(di)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)地(di)(di)方式(shi)(shi)的(de)土(tu)(tu)壤篩(shai)選(xuan)值(zhi)相對(dui)寬松(song)；浙江則將住宅用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)地(di)(di)、公園(yuan)與(yu)(yu)綠地(di)(di)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)地(di)(di)方式(shi)(shi)統稱為住宅及(ji)公共用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)地(di)(di)。對(dui)比(bi)北京(jing)/浙江住宅用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)地(di)(di)土(tu)(tu)壤篩(shai)選(xuan)值(zhi)和展(zhan)覽會用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)地(di)(di)標(biao)準(zhun)(zhun)A級標(biao)準(zhun)(zhun)，僅(jin)少數(shu)污(wu)(wu)染(ran)物(wu)如砷、鎳、多氯(lv)聯苯及(ji)滴滴涕等的(de)住宅用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)地(di)(di)土(tu)(tu)壤篩(shai)選(xuan)值(zhi)與(yu)(yu)展(zhan)覽會用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)地(di)(di)標(biao)準(zhun)(zhun)A級標(biao)準(zhun)(zhun)相同(tong)，大部分(fen)污(wu)(wu)染(ran)物(wu)均(jun)存在差異(yi)性。

3 暴露評估

暴(bao)(bao)露評估(gu)(gu)是在危(wei)害(hai)識(shi)別的基(ji)礎上確(que)定(ding)(ding)場地(di)土壤和地(di)下(xia)水污染物(wu)的暴(bao)(bao)露情(qing)景、主要暴(bao)(bao)露途徑和暴(bao)(bao)露評估(gu)(gu)模(mo)型(xing)，確(que)定(ding)(ding)評估(gu)(gu)模(mo)型(xing)參數取(qu)值，計算敏感人群(qun)對土壤和地(di)下(xia)水中污染物(wu)的暴(bao)(bao)露量。

3.1暴露情景

暴(bao)露(lu)情景是指在(zai)(zai)特定(ding)土(tu)地(di)利用(yong)(yong)(yong)方式(shi)下場地(di)污染(ran)物經由不同暴(bao)露(lu)途徑遷移和(he)達到受體人(ren)群的(de)(de)情況，其對(dui)(dui)后(hou)續暴(bao)露(lu)量(liang)計算公式(shi)的(de)(de)選擇(ze)起(qi)著重要的(de)(de)指導(dao)作用(yong)(yong)(yong)。國家導(dao)則(ze)(ze)、重慶指南(nan)和(he)上海規范均對(dui)(dui)暴(bao)露(lu)情景進行了(le)明確(que)的(de)(de)分(fen)類(lei)，基(ji)本可(ke)分(fen)為以住宅用(yong)(yong)(yong)地(di)為代表(biao)的(de)(de)敏(min)感(gan)用(yong)(yong)(yong)地(di)和(he)以工(gong)業用(yong)(yong)(yong)地(di)為代表(biao)的(de)(de)非敏(min)感(gan)用(yong)(yong)(yong)地(di)；浙江導(dao)則(ze)(ze)中對(dui)(dui)暴(bao)露(lu)情景的(de)(de)分(fen)類(lei)則(ze)(ze)以敏(min)感(gan)人(ren)群中是否涉及(ji)兒童來(lai)定(ding)；北京導(dao)則(ze)(ze)中暫未明確(que)提及(ji)暴(bao)露(lu)情景這一說(shuo)法，但(dan)在(zai)(zai)北京篩選值中分(fen)別提及(ji)住宅用(yong)(yong)(yong)地(di)、公園與綠地(di)和(he)工(gong)業/商服用(yong)(yong)(yong)地(di)的(de)(de)土(tu)壤(rang)污染(ran)物篩選值。

3.2暴露途徑

暴(bao)露(lu)(lu)(lu)途(tu)徑(jing)是場地(di)污染物(wu)遷移到達和(he)暴(bao)露(lu)(lu)(lu)于(yu)人體的(de)(de)方式。對(dui)比(bi)分析各(ge)導則的(de)(de)暴(bao)露(lu)(lu)(lu)途(tu)徑(jing)，國家導則和(he)上(shang)(shang)海(hai)規范對(dui)暴(bao)露(lu)(lu)(lu)途(tu)徑(jing)的(de)(de)考(kao)慮(lv)比(bi)較(jiao)全面，在綜(zong)合考(kao)慮(lv)保護人體健康(kang)各(ge)途(tu)徑(jing)的(de)(de)基礎(chu)上(shang)(shang)，還考(kao)慮(lv)了(le)對(dui)地(di)下(xia)(xia)水(shui)(shui)的(de)(de)保護即土(tu)壤(rang)(rang)淋溶至地(di)下(xia)(xia)水(shui)(shui)的(de)(de)暴(bao)露(lu)(lu)(lu)途(tu)徑(jing)。重慶(qing)指南對(dui)各(ge)暴(bao)露(lu)(lu)(lu)途(tu)徑(jing)尚未進行詳細的(de)(de)劃分，如未區分土(tu)壤(rang)(rang)呼吸吸入(ru)途(tu)徑(jing)的(de)(de)室內外顆(ke)粒物(wu)及(ji)(ji)蒸(zheng)氣，未考(kao)慮(lv)土(tu)壤(rang)(rang)淋溶至地(di)下(xia)(xia)水(shui)(shui)及(ji)(ji)地(di)下(xia)(xia)水(shui)(shui)室外蒸(zheng)氣途(tu)徑(jing)等(deng)，但(dan)增加了(le)其他導則中沒有(you)的(de)(de)土(tu)壤(rang)(rang)果蔬種植攝入(ru)及(ji)(ji)地(di)下(xia)(xia)水(shui)(shui)皮(pi)膚接觸(chu)暴(bao)露(lu)(lu)(lu)途(tu)徑(jing)。

風險評估技術的暴露途徑(jing)比較見表2。

3.3暴露(lu)量(liang)計(ji)算及暴露(lu)參數

在進(jin)行暴(bao)(bao)(bao)露(lu)(lu)量的計(ji)算(suan)(suan)時，國(guo)家及各地(di)方(fang)導(dao)(dao)則(ze)應(ying)用的模(mo)型基(ji)本保(bao)持一致。其(qi)(qi)中(zhong)，北京導(dao)(dao)則(ze)和重慶指(zhi)南直接將污(wu)染物的濃(nong)度帶入暴(bao)(bao)(bao)露(lu)(lu)量的計(ji)算(suan)(suan)中(zhong)，計(ji)算(suan)(suan)得(de)到(dao)各暴(bao)(bao)(bao)露(lu)(lu)途(tu)(tu)徑(jing)土壤或(huo)地(di)下水(shui)中(zhong)污(wu)染物的暴(bao)(bao)(bao)露(lu)(lu)量，其(qi)(qi)他導(dao)(dao)則(ze)僅(jin)計(ji)算(suan)(suan)得(de)到(dao)各暴(bao)(bao)(bao)露(lu)(lu)途(tu)(tu)徑(jing)下土壤或(huo)地(di)下水(shui)的暴(bao)(bao)(bao)露(lu)(lu)量。此外(wai)，重慶指(zhi)南在計(ji)算(suan)(suan)呼吸吸入途(tu)(tu)徑(jing)污(wu)染物的暴(bao)(bao)(bao)露(lu)(lu)量時，未區分污(wu)染物室內外(wai)顆粒物及蒸氣(qi)。

國家及(ji)各地(di)(di)(di)方導則(ze)均(jun)按照敏感受體(ti)及(ji)暴(bao)(bao)(bao)露情(qing)(qing)(qing)景(jing)(jing)的(de)不(bu)同，對風險評估中需要(yao)的(de)暴(bao)(bao)(bao)露參(can)數進行(xing)了統計(ji)(ji)。國家導則(ze)、浙(zhe)江導則(ze)和上(shang)海規范(fan)中統計(ji)(ji)的(de)暴(bao)(bao)(bao)露參(can)數相對較(jiao)為詳細，考(kao)(kao)慮了住(zhu)宅和工業(ye)用(yong)地(di)(di)(di)兩種(zhong)暴(bao)(bao)(bao)露情(qing)(qing)(qing)景(jing)(jing)；北京導則(ze)中統計(ji)(ji)了包括體(ti)重、皮膚表面積、暴(bao)(bao)(bao)露頻率(lv)在(zai)內的(de)7種(zhong)暴(bao)(bao)(bao)露參(can)數，考(kao)(kao)慮了居(ju)住(zhu)、公園、商業(ye)和工業(ye)用(yong)地(di)(di)(di)4種(zhong)暴(bao)(bao)(bao)露情(qing)(qing)(qing)景(jing)(jing)；重慶指南在(zai)統計(ji)(ji)暴(bao)(bao)(bao)露參(can)數時，考(kao)(kao)慮的(de)暴(bao)(bao)(bao)露情(qing)(qing)(qing)景(jing)(jing)更加詳細，綜合考(kao)(kao)慮了居(ju)住(zhu)、工業(ye)、商業(ye)/娛樂/市(shi)政用(yong)地(di)(di)(di)、開挖施工及(ji)農業(ye)用(yong)地(di)(di)(di)。

風(feng)險(xian)評估(gu)技術暴露參數(shu)的比較（以住宅類敏(min)感(gan)用(yong)地為例）見(jian)表(biao)3。

表(biao)3以(yi)住宅類敏感用地為例(li)，選取了部分代表(biao)性暴露參數進行(xing)了比較，與(yu)國(guo)家導則相比，上海規范的參數取值(zhi)與(yu)其基本保持一致，其他導則中部分參數取值(zhi)與(yu)其保持一致，取值(zhi)不(bu)同(tong)的各(ge)參數與(yu)國(guo)家導則相比差別不(bu)大。

4毒性評估

毒性評估即在(zai)危害(hai)識別的基礎上，分(fen)析(xi)關注污染(ran)物對人體健(jian)康的危害(hai)效應(ying)，包括致癌(ai)效應(ying)和(he)非致癌(ai)效應(ying)，確(que)定(ding)與(yu)關注污染(ran)物相關的毒理學及理化等參數。

4.1污染物毒性分級(ji)及參數

美(mei)國(guo)國(guo)家環保局（United States Environmental Protection Agency，USEPA）對(dui)污(wu)染物(wu)進(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)了如下毒性(xing)分(fen)(fen)級。A：人(ren)類(lei)致(zhi)癌污(wu)染物(wu)；B2：很可能的人(ren)類(lei)致(zhi)癌污(wu)染物(wu)；C：可能的人(ren)類(lei)致(zhi)癌污(wu)染物(wu)；NA：暫時未對(dui)其致(zhi)癌性(xing)進(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)劃分(fen)(fen)［10］ 。我國(guo)目前(qian)參考USEPA對(dui)污(wu)染物(wu)進(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)毒性(xing)分(fen)(fen)級。

污染物致(zhi)癌效應(ying)的(de)毒性(xing)參(can)(can)(can)(can)(can)數包括呼(hu)吸(xi)(xi)吸(xi)(xi)入(ru)單位致(zhi)癌因子(zi)(zi)（IUR）、呼(hu)吸(xi)(xi)吸(xi)(xi)入(ru)致(zhi)癌斜率因子(zi)(zi)（SFi）、經口攝(she)入(ru)致(zhi)癌斜率因子(zi)(zi)（SFo）和(he)(he)皮膚接觸致(zhi)癌斜率因子(zi)(zi)（SFd）。污染物非致(zhi)癌效應(ying)的(de)毒性(xing)參(can)(can)(can)(can)(can)數包括呼(hu)吸(xi)(xi)吸(xi)(xi)入(ru)參(can)(can)(can)(can)(can)考濃度（RfC）、呼(hu)吸(xi)(xi)吸(xi)(xi)入(ru)參(can)(can)(can)(can)(can)考劑(ji)量（RfDi）、經口攝(she)入(ru)參(can)(can)(can)(can)(can)考劑(ji)量（RfDo）和(he)(he)皮膚接觸參(can)(can)(can)(can)(can)考劑(ji)量（RfDd）。

國家導則(ze)(ze)中(zhong)(zhong)，呼(hu)吸(xi)(xi)吸(xi)(xi)入途(tu)(tu)徑(jing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)SFi和(he)RfDi可(ke)(ke)(ke)分別(bie)(bie)通過IUR和(he)RfC外推(tui)得(de)到(dao)，皮膚接觸途(tu)(tu)徑(jing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)SFd和(he)RfDd則(ze)(ze)可(ke)(ke)(ke)分別(bie)(bie)通過SFo和(he)RfDo外推(tui)計(ji)算(suan)(suan)得(de)到(dao)，并列出了外推(tui)計(ji)算(suan)(suan)公(gong)式。北京(jing)導則(ze)(ze)中(zhong)(zhong)，呼(hu)吸(xi)(xi)吸(xi)(xi)入途(tu)(tu)徑(jing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)SFi和(he)RfDi及皮膚接觸途(tu)(tu)徑(jing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)SFd和(he)RfDd直接為文獻參數(shu)(shu)值，未進行外推(tui)計(ji)算(suan)(suan)。重慶(qing)指南中(zhong)(zhong)暫(zan)未列舉污(wu)染(ran)物(wu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)毒(du)性(xing)參數(shu)(shu)。浙江導則(ze)(ze)中(zhong)(zhong)直接列舉了部分污(wu)染(ran)物(wu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)毒(du)性(xing)參數(shu)(shu)，對于未收錄的(de)(de)(de)(de)污(wu)染(ran)物(wu)毒(du)性(xing)參數(shu)(shu)，規(gui)定(ding)可(ke)(ke)(ke)參考(kao)國外毒(du)性(xing)數(shu)(shu)據(ju)庫或可(ke)(ke)(ke)根據(ju)相(xiang)關外推(tui)模型進行計(ji)算(suan)(suan)。上海規(gui)范(fan)與國家導則(ze)(ze)保(bao)持一致，在毒(du)性(xing)參數(shu)(shu)取值時(shi)應用了具體的(de)(de)(de)(de)外推(tui)模型進行計(ji)算(suan)(suan)。

對比(bi)國(guo)家及各地方導(dao)則中污染(ran)物(wu)(wu)的毒性參(can)數(shu)，由于參(can)考不同的文(wen)獻，污染(ran)物(wu)(wu)的毒性參(can)數(shu)各有不同，污染(ran)物(wu)(wu)毒性參(can)數(shu)的差(cha)異(yi)會導(dao)致后續污染(ran)物(wu)(wu)風險(xian)的不同，在風險(xian)評估(gu)中需根據地方政府的要(yao)求合理(li)選擇污染(ran)物(wu)(wu)的毒性參(can)數(shu)。

4.2污染物理(li)化性(xing)質及其他(ta)參數(shu)

風(feng)險(xian)評估(gu)中還涉及到一(yi)些(xie)(xie)污染(ran)物的(de)理化(hua)性質參(can)數(shu)及其他(ta)一(yi)些(xie)(xie)和暴露途徑相(xiang)關的(de)吸收因子參(can)數(shu)。

國家導(dao)(dao)則(ze)、浙江導(dao)(dao)則(ze)和上(shang)海規(gui)范(fan)中分別列表給出(chu)了部分污(wu)染(ran)物的(de)理(li)化參數(shu)，而北京導(dao)(dao)則(ze)和重慶指南中暫無污(wu)染(ran)物的(de)理(li)化性(xing)質(zhi)(zhi)參數(shu)。具有代(dai)表性(xing)的(de)理(li)化性(xing)質(zhi)(zhi)參數(shu)即(ji)無量綱亨(heng)利(li)常數(shu)（H’）、水(shui)中擴散系(xi)(xi)數(shu)（Dw）、空氣中擴散系(xi)(xi)數(shu)（Da）、土壤(rang)-有機碳分配系(xi)(xi)數(shu)（Koc）和水(shui)溶解度（S）等，浙江導(dao)(dao)則(ze)中未給出(chu)溶解度的(de)參考(kao)(kao)取(qu)值(zhi)。由(you)于(yu)參考(kao)(kao)不同(tong)的(de)文獻，各(ge)導(dao)(dao)則(ze)中污(wu)染(ran)物的(de)部分理(li)化性(xing)質(zhi)(zhi)參數(shu)取(qu)值(zhi)也(ye)存在(zai)(zai)不同(tong)。以四氯化碳為例(li)，對比國家導(dao)(dao)則(ze)和上(shang)海規(gui)范(fan)，其(qi)H’和S的(de)取(qu)值(zhi)相同(tong)，而Dw、Da和Koc存在(zai)(zai)輕(qing)微差異(yi)；對比浙江導(dao)(dao)則(ze)和上(shang)海規(gui)范(fan)，其(qi)Dw和Da的(de)取(qu)值(zhi)相同(tong)，而H’、Koc和S存在(zai)(zai)輕(qing)微差異(yi)。

四氯化(hua)碳理化(hua)性質(zhi)參數的(de)比較(jiao)見表(biao)4。

污染物(wu)的(de)(de)吸收(shou)因子參(can)數(shu)主要包括消化(hua)道(dao)吸收(shou)因子ABSgi、皮(pi)膚(fu)吸收(shou)因子ABSd和(he)(he)經口攝入吸收(shou)因子ABSo，分別用于計算皮(pi)膚(fu)接觸(chu)(chu)致癌斜率(lv)因子及參(can)考(kao)劑量、皮(pi)膚(fu)接觸(chu)(chu)土壤途(tu)(tu)徑(jing)的(de)(de)土壤暴露量和(he)(he)經口攝入土壤途(tu)(tu)徑(jing)的(de)(de)土壤暴露量。國家導(dao)則、浙(zhe)江(jiang)導(dao)則和(he)(he)上海規范(fan)對吸收(shou)因子參(can)數(shu)考(kao)慮(lv)(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)較為全(quan)面，北京(jing)導(dao)則中(zhong)僅考(kao)慮(lv)(lv)(lv)了ABSd，重(zhong)慶(qing)指南中(zhong)考(kao)慮(lv)(lv)(lv)了ABSd和(he)(he)ABSo。參(can)數(shu)取(qu)值(zhi)方面，各導(dao)則中(zhong)污染物(wu)的(de)(de)ABSgi和(he)(he)ABSo的(de)(de)取(qu)值(zhi)均相同(tong)，由于參(can)考(kao)不同(tong)的(de)(de)文獻，各導(dao)則中(zhong)污染物(wu)的(de)(de)ABSd不完(wan)全(quan)相同(tong)。

5風險表征

風(feng)險表(biao)征(zheng)是在暴露評(ping)估(gu)和毒性(xing)評(ping)估(gu)的(de)(de)基礎上采用風(feng)險評(ping)估(gu)模型(xing)計算土(tu)壤和地下水污染物的(de)(de)致(zhi)癌風(feng)險和危害(hai)商。

在進(jin)行污(wu)(wu)(wu)染(ran)物(wu)(wu)的(de)風險(xian)表征時，國家導(dao)則(ze)(ze)和(he)(he)地(di)方(fang)(fang)導(dao)則(ze)(ze)的(de)相同(tong)之處在于，均分別考慮了致(zhi)癌(ai)(ai)污(wu)(wu)(wu)染(ran)物(wu)(wu)的(de)致(zhi)癌(ai)(ai)風險(xian)和(he)(he)非(fei)致(zhi)癌(ai)(ai)污(wu)(wu)(wu)染(ran)物(wu)(wu)的(de)非(fei)致(zhi)癌(ai)(ai)危害(hai)商，并首先分別計(ji)(ji)算土壤或地(di)下水(shui)中單一(yi)污(wu)(wu)(wu)染(ran)物(wu)(wu)經單一(yi)途徑(jing)的(de)致(zhi)癌(ai)(ai)風險(xian)和(he)(he)非(fei)致(zhi)癌(ai)(ai)危害(hai)商，再計(ji)(ji)算單一(yi)污(wu)(wu)(wu)染(ran)物(wu)(wu)的(de)總致(zhi)癌(ai)(ai)風險(xian)和(he)(he)非(fei)致(zhi)癌(ai)(ai)危害(hai)指(zhi)數，計(ji)(ji)算方(fang)(fang)法也保(bao)持一(yi)致(zhi)。此外，國家導(dao)則(ze)(ze)和(he)(he)地(di)方(fang)(fang)導(dao)則(ze)(ze)均選擇相對保(bao)守(shou)的(de)10～6作為單一(yi)污(wu)(wu)(wu)染(ran)物(wu)(wu)的(de)可接受致(zhi)癌(ai)(ai)風險(xian)水(shui)平，選擇1作為單一(yi)污(wu)(wu)(wu)染(ran)物(wu)(wu)可接受非(fei)致(zhi)癌(ai)(ai)危害(hai)商。

國(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)和(he)地方導則(ze)(ze)的(de)不同之處在(zai)于，首先，在(zai)進(jin)行單一污(wu)染(ran)物非致癌危(wei)(wei)害商的(de)計(ji)算時，是否考(kao)慮暴(bao)露于土壤(rang)和(he)地下(xia)水的(de)參考(kao)劑(ji)量(liang)分(fen)(fen)(fen)配(pei)系數(shu)SAF和(he)WAF。上海規范同國(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)導則(ze)(ze)應用(yong)的(de)推薦模型保持一致，在(zai)進(jin)行非致癌危(wei)(wei)害商的(de)計(ji)算時，均考(kao)慮了暴(bao)露于土壤(rang)和(he)地下(xia)水的(de)參考(kao)劑(ji)量(liang)分(fen)(fen)(fen)配(pei)系數(shu)，而(er)北(bei)京導則(ze)(ze)、重慶指南和(he)浙(zhe)(zhe)江導則(ze)(ze)未(wei)(wei)對(dui)其進(jin)行考(kao)慮。此外(wai)，在(zai)完(wan)成污(wu)染(ran)物總致癌風險和(he)非致癌危(wei)(wei)害指數(shu)的(de)計(ji)算后，應進(jin)行不確(que)定(ding)性(xing)(xing)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析，以分(fen)(fen)(fen)析污(wu)染(ran)場(chang)地風險評(ping)估結(jie)果不確(que)定(ding)性(xing)(xing)的(de)主(zhu)要來(lai)源(yuan)，國(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)導則(ze)(ze)、重慶指南和(he)上海規范中分(fen)(fen)(fen)別對(dui)該(gai)部分(fen)(fen)(fen)內(nei)容進(jin)行了詳細分(fen)(fen)(fen)析，而(er)北(bei)京導則(ze)(ze)和(he)浙(zhe)(zhe)江導則(ze)(ze)中未(wei)(wei)涉及該(gai)部分(fen)(fen)(fen)內(nei)容。

6風險(xian)控制值的計算(suan)及修復目(mu)標值的確定

污(wu)染(ran)物的(de)風險(xian)控(kong)制(zhi)值(zhi)是基于(yu)健康風險(xian)評估模型的(de)計算(suan)值(zhi)，是確定污(wu)染(ran)場地(di)修(xiu)復目標值(zhi)的(de)重要參考值(zhi)。而(er)污(wu)染(ran)物的(de)修(xiu)復目標值(zhi)是根據(ju)不(bu)同修(xiu)復方式(shi)（原位(wei)/異(yi)位(wei)）和不(bu)同修(xiu)復技術（污(wu)染(ran)物總量削減/風險(xian)途(tu)徑(jing)控(kong)制(zhi)）而(er)確定的(de)，修(xiu)復目標值(zhi)不(bu)完(wan)全(quan)等同于(yu)風險(xian)控(kong)制(zhi)值(zhi)。

6.1風險控制值的計算

當(dang)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)估結果表明場(chang)地土(tu)壤或(huo)地下水中(zhong)污染(ran)物(wu)濃度(du)超過可接受風(feng)險(xian)(xian)水平時，需要(yao)計(ji)算土(tu)壤和地下水中(zhong)關注污染(ran)物(wu)的(de)(de)(de)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)控制值(zhi)。國家(jia)導(dao)則(ze)、浙江導(dao)則(ze)和上(shang)海規(gui)范中(zhong)計(ji)算污染(ran)物(wu)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)控制值(zhi)應用的(de)(de)(de)模(mo)型(xing)基本一致(zhi)，不同之處在(zai)于(yu)在(zai)進行非致(zhi)癌污染(ran)物(wu)的(de)(de)(de)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)控制值(zhi)計(ji)算時，國家(jia)導(dao)則(ze)考(kao)慮(lv)(lv)了(le)暴露于(yu)土(tu)壤和地下水的(de)(de)(de)參考(kao)劑量分配系數(shu)SAF和WAF，而(er)地方(fang)導(dao)則(ze)中(zhong)未對其進行考(kao)慮(lv)(lv)。北京導(dao)則(ze)和重慶指南中(zhong)均(jun)僅提(ti)及計(ji)算方(fang)法，未給出計(ji)算模(mo)型(xing)。

此外(wai)，國家導(dao)則(ze)和上海規(gui)范中考慮(lv)了對地下(xia)(xia)水(shui)環境的(de)保(bao)護，主要考慮(lv)土(tu)壤污染物淋溶(rong)至(zhi)地下(xia)(xia)水(shui)后對地下(xia)(xia)水(shui)造成的(de)危害，制(zhi)定(ding)了保(bao)護地下(xia)(xia)水(shui)的(de)土(tu)壤風險(xian)控制(zhi)值(zhi)的(de)確定(ding)方法。其他(ta)導(dao)則(ze)中暫(zan)未考慮(lv)對地下(xia)(xia)水(shui)環境的(de)保(bao)護。

6.2修復目標值(zhi)的確定

國家和(he)(he)各地(di)方(fang)導(dao)則中(zhong)對污(wu)染物(wu)(wu)修(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)目(mu)(mu)(mu)標(biao)值(zhi)(zhi)有不同的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)確(que)定(ding)(ding)方(fang)法。我國《污(wu)染場地(di)土(tu)壤(rang)修(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)導(dao)則》（HJ25.4-2014）［11］中(zhong)指(zhi)出(chu)，在分析比較風(feng)險(xian)評估計算獲得的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)險(xian)控制值(zhi)(zhi)、場地(di)所(suo)在區(qu)域土(tu)壤(rang)中(zhong)目(mu)(mu)(mu)標(biao)污(wu)染物(wu)(wu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)背景(jing)含量及國家有關標(biao)準(zhun)中(zhong)規(gui)定(ding)(ding)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)限(xian)(xian)值(zhi)(zhi)后，合理提出(chu)土(tu)壤(rang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)標(biao)污(wu)染物(wu)(wu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)修(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)目(mu)(mu)(mu)標(biao)值(zhi)(zhi)。北京導(dao)則中(zhong)，在確(que)定(ding)(ding)污(wu)染物(wu)(wu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)修(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)目(mu)(mu)(mu)標(biao)值(zhi)(zhi)時，還(huan)應(ying)參考該污(wu)染物(wu)(wu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)檢出(chu)限(xian)(xian)、評價地(di)區(qu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)土(tu)壤(rang)和(he)(he)地(di)下(xia)水中(zhong)污(wu)染物(wu)(wu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)背景(jing)值(zhi)(zhi)、當地(di)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)法律法規(gui)和(he)(he)修(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)可(ke)行(xing)性。重慶指(zhi)南中(zhong)，需綜合考慮技(ji)術(shu)(shu)、經濟等，執行(xing)相(xiang)對嚴格的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)修(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)目(mu)(mu)(mu)標(biao)值(zhi)(zhi)。浙江導(dao)則中(zhong)指(zhi)出(chu)，應(ying)根據污(wu)染物(wu)(wu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)險(xian)控制值(zhi)(zhi)以及場地(di)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)實際情況和(he)(he)用(yong)途確(que)定(ding)(ding)修(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)目(mu)(mu)(mu)標(biao)值(zhi)(zhi)。上海規(gui)范(fan)中(zhong)明確(que)區(qu)分了污(wu)染物(wu)(wu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)險(xian)控制值(zhi)(zhi)及修(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)目(mu)(mu)(mu)標(biao)值(zhi)(zhi)，當選(xuan)(xuan)擇原位(wei)修(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)時，修(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)目(mu)(mu)(mu)標(biao)值(zhi)(zhi)可(ke)引用(yong)風(feng)險(xian)控制值(zhi)(zhi)；選(xuan)(xuan)擇異位(wei)修(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)時，修(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)目(mu)(mu)(mu)標(biao)值(zhi)(zhi)應(ying)根據不同的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)修(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)(xiu)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)策略和(he)(he)處置方(fang)式制定(ding)(ding)。

需(xu)要指出的是(shi)，對于地(di)(di)(di)下水(shui)(shui)的修復目標值(zhi)，浙江導則還有一特殊規定，要求在比較經過風(feng)險評估計(ji)算得到的地(di)(di)(di)下水(shui)(shui)修復限(xian)值(zhi)及《地(di)(di)(di)下水(shui)(shui)質量標準》（GB/T 14848-93）中規定的地(di)(di)(di)下水(shui)(shui)污染物濃度最(zui)大限(xian)值(zhi)的基(ji)礎(chu)上(shang)，選擇最(zui)小值(zhi)作為污染場(chang)地(di)(di)(di)地(di)(di)(di)下水(shui)(shui)修復建議目標。

7 其他

鉛污染場地的風險評估在國家和(he)地方導則(ze)中均有提(ti)及(ji)但各有不同(tong)。與其他化(hua)學物質的非致癌(ai)性危害(hai)相比，鉛的主要(yao)特點即在很低(di)的濃度下依然可能對兒(er)(er)童或胎兒(er)(er)造成非致癌(ai)危害(hai)。

國(guo)家導則和上海規范的(de)(de)(de)適用(yong)(yong)范圍中均(jun)指出其不(bu)適用(yong)(yong)于鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)、放射性(xing)物(wu)質(zhi)、致(zhi)病(bing)性(xing)生物(wu)污(wu)(wu)染及農(nong)用(yong)(yong)地(di)(di)(di)土壤污(wu)(wu)染的(de)(de)(de)風險評(ping)估。而北京導則和浙江導則的(de)(de)(de)適用(yong)(yong)范圍中則未提(ti)及不(bu)適用(yong)(yong)于鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)污(wu)(wu)染場(chang)地(di)(di)(di)的(de)(de)(de)風險評(ping)估，也(ye)未給(gei)出鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)的(de)(de)(de)毒性(xing)參(can)數，但(dan)均(jun)提(ti)出了鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)的(de)(de)(de)土壤參(can)考篩選(xuan)值(zhi)。重慶指南(nan)中，對于住(zhu)宅(zhai)用(yong)(yong)地(di)(di)(di)及公共用(yong)(yong)地(di)(di)(di)，鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)污(wu)(wu)染場(chang)地(di)(di)(di)風險評(ping)估采(cai)用(yong)(yong)兒童血鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)評(ping)估方(fang)式，要求經各(ge)種暴露途徑導致(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)兒童體內血鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)水平(ping)高于0.1 mg/L的(de)(de)(de)概率小于5%，其具體方(fang)法參(can)照USEPA公布(bu)的(de)(de)(de)方(fang)法；而對于商服(fu)及工業用(yong)(yong)地(di)(di)(di)，鉛(qian)(qian)(qian)污(wu)(wu)染場(chang)地(di)(di)(di)采(cai)用(yong)(yong)單因(yin)子(zi)評(ping)價方(fang)法，評(ping)估標準為(wei)展覽會用(yong)(yong)地(di)(di)(di)標準中的(de)(de)(de)B級標準。

8結論與建議

8.1結論

從(cong)以(yi)上綜合(he)比較分析可以(yi)得出以(yi)下結論。

（1）我國污染場地風險評估(gu)相關的國家導則和地方導則中有(you)關風險評估(gu)的工(gong)作內容(rong)和程(cheng)(cheng)序要(yao)求基本相同，各工(gong)作程(cheng)(cheng)序的內容(rong)綜合(he)比較也無(wu)很大差異。

（2）在進行污染(ran)場(chang)地風險評(ping)估(gu)時，各導(dao)則考(kao)慮的污染(ran)物暴露途(tu)徑(jing)各有不同，而暴露途(tu)徑(jing)的選擇(ze)不同，將導(dao)致風險評(ping)估(gu)的結果(guo)存在差異。

（3）各(ge)導則對(dui)于包括(kuo)暴露參(can)數(shu)(shu)、毒性參(can)數(shu)(shu)及理化(hua)參(can)數(shu)(shu)等在(zai)內的數(shu)(shu)據(ju)庫的選擇各(ge)有不同，這也將導致計算(suan)得到(dao)的污染物風險(xian)控制值或修復目標值存(cun)在(zai)差異(yi)。

（4）在(zai)進行(xing)非(fei)致癌污(wu)染物的風險評估時，計算危害商及風險控制(zhi)值時，模型中是否考慮(lv)暴露于土壤和地下水的參(can)考劑量分(fen)配系數，將對非(fei)致癌污(wu)染物風險評估的結果存在(zai)影響。

8.2建議

我(wo)(wo)國(guo)污染場地風(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)估(gu)技(ji)術方(fang)(fang)法有關的國(guo)家(jia)和地方(fang)(fang)導(dao)則各(ge)(ge)有優(you)勢(shi)和不足，國(guo)家(jia)導(dao)則在評(ping)估(gu)程序、各(ge)(ge)程序的工作內(nei)容(rong)、風(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)估(gu)各(ge)(ge)計算模型的選擇等方(fang)(fang)面相對完(wan)善(shan)。通過(guo)對比分(fen)析，對完(wan)善(shan)我(wo)(wo)國(guo)污染場地風(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)估(gu)技(ji)術方(fang)(fang)法提出了如下相關思考和建議。

（1）國內有關場地(di)土(tu)壤及地(di)下水(shui)污染物的篩(shai)(shai)選(xuan)標準(zhun)尚不完(wan)善，且大多僅有污染物的土(tu)壤篩(shai)(shai)選(xuan)值，基于(yu)此，建議從(cong)國家和地(di)方層面(mian)分(fen)別完(wan)善各自的土(tu)壤篩(shai)(shai)選(xuan)值并制(zhi)定地(di)下水(shui)篩(shai)(shai)選(xuan)值。

（2）暴露評估階段，各地應以國家導則(ze)作為參考依(yi)據，并根據本地區的(de)實際情況，完善地方特定(ding)的(de)暴露參數數據庫(ku)。

（3）毒(du)性(xing)評估階段(duan)，國家和地方導則中污染(ran)物(wu)(wu)的毒(du)性(xing)參(can)(can)數(shu)取值各有不(bu)同(tong)，且均參(can)(can)考國外(wai)的污染(ran)物(wu)(wu)毒(du)性(xing)參(can)(can)數(shu)數(shu)據庫，建議從國家層面整體規范污染(ran)物(wu)(wu)的毒(du)性(xing)參(can)(can)數(shu)。

（4）建議(yi)在制(zhi)定非(fei)致癌危害(hai)商及非(fei)致癌污染物的(de)風險控制(zhi)值(zhi)時，統一考慮暴露于土壤和地下(xia)水的(de)參考劑量(liang)分配系數(shu)。

（5）污染場地(di)風險評估應從健康與環境兩個方面來進行，應考慮對(dui)地(di)下水環境的保護。

參考文獻

1DB11/T 656-2009.場地環境評價導則［S］.

2重(zhong)慶市(shi)環(huan)境保(bao)護局.重(zhong)慶場(chang)地環(huan)境風險評估技術指南［EB/OL］.重(zhong)慶：重(zhong)慶市(shi)環(huan)境保(bao)護局，2010［2010-01］.pan.baidu.com/s/1bnjB7yv

3DB 11/T 811-2011.場地(di)土(tu)壤環境風險評(ping)價篩選值［S］.

4DB 33/T 892-2013.污染(ran)場地風險評(ping)估技術導(dao)則［S］.

5HJ 25.3-2014.污染場地風險評估技術導則(ze)［S］.

6上(shang)(shang)海(hai)(hai)市(shi)環境(jing)保(bao)護(hu)局.上(shang)(shang)海(hai)(hai)市(shi)污染場地風險(xian)評估技(ji)術規范［EB/OL］.上(shang)(shang)海(hai)(hai)：上(shang)(shang)海(hai)(hai)市(shi)環境(jing)保(bao)護(hu)局，2014［2014-10-10］.

sepb.gov.cn/fa/cms/shhj//shhj2103/shhj2104/2014/10/87719.htm

7陳夢(meng)舫，駱(luo)永明，宋靜，等.中(zhong)、英、美污染場地風險評估導則異同與啟示［J］.環境監測管理與技術(shu)，2011，23（3）：14-

18.

8HJ 350-2007.展覽會(hui)用地土壤環境質(zhi)量評價(jia)標準(zhun)（暫行）［S］.

9GB/T 14848-93.地(di)下水質量標(biao)準(zhun)［S］.

10United State Environmental Protection Agency.Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment［EB/OL］.United State：United State Environmental Protection Agency，2005-03［201304-10］.www2.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2013-09/documents/cancer_guidelines_final_3-25-05.pdf

篇6

【關鍵詞】生(sheng)產安全(quan)；應急預案；風險評(ping)估

1.引言

近幾年來(lai)，隨(sui)著(zhu)我(wo)國安全(quan)生(sheng)產形勢的(de)變化及安全(quan)管(guan)(guan)理的(de)發(fa)展，企業的(de)應(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)(ji)管(guan)(guan)理工(gong)作(zuo)受到(dao)越(yue)來(lai)越(yue)多(duo)的(de)重視(shi)，政府(fu)部(bu)門在安全(quan)監管(guan)(guan)上對(dui)(dui)企業應(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)(ji)管(guan)(guan)理的(de)要(yao)求已(yi)經發(fa)生(sheng)了(le)很(hen)大的(de)變化。2013年10月1日，新(xin)(xin)的(de)《生(sheng)產經營單位(wei)生(sheng)產安全(quan)事故應(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)(ji)預案(an)編制(zhi)(zhi)導(dao)則》（GB/T29639-2013）出(chu)臺并開(kai)始實施，標志著(zhu)應(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)(ji)預案(an)體系建(jian)設(she)進(jin)入“從(cong)有(you)到(dao)優”的(de)新(xin)(xin)階段，國家在對(dui)(dui)企業的(de)應(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)(ji)管(guan)(guan)理工(gong)作(zuo)方面已(yi)經將(jiang)(jiang)提升應(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)(ji)預案(an)質(zhi)量作(zuo)為(wei)了(le)工(gong)作(zuo)重點。新(xin)(xin)《導(dao)則》針(zhen)對(dui)(dui)目前我(wo)國很(hen)多(duo)企業在編制(zhi)(zhi)應(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)(ji)預案(an)時(shi)缺少(shao)風(feng)險評(ping)估(gu)導(dao)致(zhi)預案(an)針(zhen)對(dui)(dui)性(xing)、實用性(xing)不強這(zhe)一問題(ti)，進(jin)一步規范了(le)企業應(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)(ji)預案(an)的(de)編制(zhi)(zhi)程(cheng)序，明確將(jiang)(jiang)“風(feng)險評(ping)估(gu)”作(zuo)為(wei)應(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)(ji)預案(an)編制(zhi)(zhi)步驟之一。

國家(jia)安全生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)監督管理總局《關于印(yin)發2014年(nian)安全生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)應(ying)急管理工作要點的通知》（應(ying)急綜合[2014]4號(hao)）中進一(yi)步(bu)提(ti)出(chu)應(ying)急預案編(bian)制(zhi)需深入開展危險因素辨識，注重將風險評估報告納入備案內容。北(bei)京市安全生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)監督管理局更是明確提(ti)出(chu)將生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)經營單位事故風險評估報告作為應(ying)急預案備案審查(cha)的必要條件之一(yi)。由此(ci)可見，風險評估對應(ying)急預案編(bian)制(zhi)的重要性。

目前，企(qi)業(ye)在編(bian)(bian)制(zhi)應(ying)急預案(an)(an)時由于編(bian)(bian)制(zhi)人員專業(ye)能(neng)力(li)的(de)限制(zhi)，極少進行(xing)真(zhen)正有(you)效的(de)危(wei)險源辨識和風險評估(gu)，在事(shi)故風險描述部分，均是憑主(zhu)觀經驗對企(qi)業(ye)存(cun)在的(de)風險進行(xing)寬泛的(de)概(gai)述，在具體(ti)的(de)應(ying)急預案(an)(an)編(bian)(bian)制(zhi)上(shang)存(cun)在兩個極端：一是不分主(zhu)次，對所有(you)危(wei)險源均編(bian)(bian)制(zhi)相應(ying)的(de)應(ying)急預案(an)(an)；二是與(yu)風險描述相脫節(jie)，僅編(bian)(bian)制(zhi)一個綜合應(ying)急預案(an)(an)。

企(qi)業編制的(de)各種應(ying)(ying)(ying)急預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)案(an)(an)(an)，最終均要(yao)(yao)形成(cheng)一個系統的(de)體系，包(bao)括綜合預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)案(an)(an)(an)、專項預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)案(an)(an)(an)和(he)現場處置(zhi)方案(an)(an)(an)，應(ying)(ying)(ying)急預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)案(an)(an)(an)編制之(zhi)初，“要(yao)(yao)編制哪些預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)案(an)(an)(an)”是(shi)企(qi)業首(shou)先要(yao)(yao)解決的(de)問(wen)題，不進行風險分(fen)析(xi)，盲目的(de)對所有(you)危(wei)險源均編制相應(ying)(ying)(ying)的(de)應(ying)(ying)(ying)急預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)案(an)(an)(an)，沒有(you)重點和(he)主(zhu)次，導致(zhi)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)案(an)(an)(an)缺乏針對性(xing)、很多專項預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)案(an)(an)(an)只是(shi)作(zuo)為文本被(bei)束之(zhi)高閣，而(er)真正有(you)用的(de)專項預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)案(an)(an)(an)也不能(neng)得到企(qi)業管理者和(he)員工的(de)重視，從而(er)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)案(an)(an)(an)也就(jiu)喪失了其(qi)有(you)效預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)防、降低事故影響的(de)作(zuo)用。

針(zhen)對(dui)此(ci)問(wen)題，筆者在近期做(zuo)應急預案咨詢工作的(de)基礎(chu)上，以某地勘企業為例(li)，闡述(shu)通過風(feng)險(xian)評估(gu)從而進行應急預案體系優化(hua)的(de)過程，探(tan)討風(feng)險(xian)評估(gu)對(dui)應急預案編制的(de)重要意義。

2.應急預案體系優(you)化(hua)

2.1風(feng)險(xian)評估前的應(ying)急預(yu)案體系(xi)及缺陷分析

地勘企(qi)業(ye)屬(shu)高流(liu)動分散(san)的行(xing)業(ye)，其(qi)工(gong)作條件多(duo)變，環境(jing)惡劣(lie)，涉及的事故(gu)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)較多(duo)。進(jin)行(xing)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)評估前(qian)，企(qi)業(ye)僅憑經(jing)驗(yan)對(dui)其(qi)存在的風(feng)險(xian)(xian)進(jin)行(xing)了概述，包(bao)括火災(zai)、人身傷(shang)(shang)害(hai)(hai)事故(gu)（觸電、高處墜落、物體(ti)打擊(ji)、機(ji)械傷(shang)(shang)害(hai)(hai)、起重傷(shang)(shang)害(hai)(hai)、車(che)輛傷(shang)(shang)害(hai)(hai)等(deng)）、野(ye)外作業(ye)事故(gu)（溺水、人員失蹤等(deng)）、基坑坍塌、自然(ran)災(zai)害(hai)(hai)等(deng)，并針(zhen)對(dui)所(suo)有風(feng)險(xian)(xian)均(jun)編制(zhi)了專項應急預(yu)(yu)案，應急預(yu)(yu)案體(ti)系如圖1所(suo)示(shi)。

企(qi)(qi)業在(zai)(zai)專(zhuan)(zhuan)項(xiang)預(yu)案(an)(an)(an)中(zhong)按照常(chang)規(gui)模板將火(huo)(huo)災(zai)專(zhuan)(zhuan)項(xiang)預(yu)案(an)(an)(an)放在(zai)(zai)了第一位，在(zai)(zai)具體的(de)(de)(de)預(yu)案(an)(an)(an)中(zhong)分析了辦公室(shi)火(huo)(huo)災(zai)、施工現場(chang)火(huo)(huo)災(zai)等(deng)，但應急(ji)(ji)處置程(cheng)序(xu)和措施并(bing)(bing)沒有分情(qing)況進(jin)行編(bian)制，缺乏可(ke)(ke)操作(zuo)性和針對性，而火(huo)(huo)災(zai)事(shi)故對該企(qi)(qi)業來說并(bing)(bing)非(fei)多發事(shi)故；野(ye)外作(zuo)業事(shi)故專(zhuan)(zhuan)項(xiang)預(yu)案(an)(an)(an)中(zhong)分析了溺水(shui)和人(ren)員失(shi)蹤，但是考慮(lv)到該企(qi)(qi)業的(de)(de)(de)作(zuo)業活動(dong)(dong)范圍，人(ren)員失(shi)蹤的(de)(de)(de)可(ke)(ke)能性并(bing)(bing)不大；人(ren)身(shen)傷(shang)(shang)害(hai)事(shi)故專(zhuan)(zhuan)項(xiang)預(yu)案(an)(an)(an)力求涵蓋(gai)所有可(ke)(ke)能發生(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)人(ren)身(shen)傷(shang)(shang)害(hai)類型(xing)(xing)，個體傷(shang)(shang)害(hai)類型(xing)(xing)和群體傷(shang)(shang)害(hai)等(deng)混在(zai)(zai)一起，沒有分重點和主次，接下來的(de)(de)(de)應急(ji)(ji)處置程(cheng)序(xu)和措施的(de)(de)(de)編(bian)制很難較好(hao)(hao)的(de)(de)(de)進(jin)行；自然災(zai)害(hai)專(zhuan)(zhuan)項(xiang)預(yu)案(an)(an)(an)中(zhong)包含了暴雨、洪(hong)水(shui)、泥石(shi)流、地震(zhen)等(deng)，而關于(yu)自然災(zai)害(hai)方面，企(qi)(qi)業的(de)(de)(de)主要職(zhi)責是在(zai)(zai)災(zai)害(hai)來臨前做好(hao)(hao)防(fang)災(zai)工作(zuo)。圖1的(de)(de)(de)應急(ji)(ji)預(yu)案(an)(an)(an)體系(xi)，針對性較差(cha)，并(bing)(bing)不能一目了然的(de)(de)(de)讓企(qi)(qi)業確定自身(shen)生(sheng)產活動(dong)(dong)過程(cheng)中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)應急(ji)(ji)防(fang)范重點，具體實施起來很難起到很好(hao)(hao)的(de)(de)(de)效果(guo)。

2.2風險評估

根據該地(di)勘企(qi)業作業特點，選擇作業條件危險(xian)性分析(xi)（LEC）法進行風險(xian)評(ping)估。通過對(dui)該企(qi)業歷年(nian)的(de)事(shi)(shi)(shi)故情況分析(xi)及對(dui)同類企(qi)業事(shi)(shi)(shi)故情況進行調研，以(yi)“以(yi)往事(shi)(shi)(shi)故發(fa)生頻率”（曾經發(fa)生過、未發(fa)生過、經常發(fa)生、其(qi)他單(dan)位曾經發(fa)生過）這(zhe)一指標來(lai)輔助確定相應的(de)危害發(fa)生的(de)可能性值(zhi)，編制(zhi)風險(xian)評(ping)估表（如表1所示），對(dui)企(qi)業主要(yao)生產活動(dong)（鉆井(jing)施工作業、巖土施工作業、野外地(di)質(zhi)調查）進行風險(xian)評(ping)估，得出各類危險(xian)因素(su)的(de)風險(xian)度值(zhi)，從而進行重要(yao)性排序。

2.3優化后的應急預案體系(xi)

依據風險評(ping)估結果，對原有應急預案體(ti)系進(jin)行如下幾個(ge)方面的優化：

1）因(yin)野外地質(zhi)調查作(zuo)業各(ge)項(xiang)危(wei)(wei)險(xian)因(yin)素的風險(xian)等級為“可能危(wei)(wei)險(xian)”，等級較低，因(yin)此無(wu)需單(dan)獨(du)編(bian)制專項(xiang)預案。

2）企業鉆井施工作業過程中(zhong)，高處墜(zhui)落和觸電的(de)危(wei)險(xian)等(deng)級最高，為“高度危(wei)險(xian)”，鉆井施工中(zhong)物體(ti)打(da)擊、機械傷(shang)(shang)害(hai)因發生頻率高，達到“顯著危(wei)險(xian)”，其次是起(qi)重(zhong)傷(shang)(shang)害(hai)、車輛傷(shang)(shang)害(hai)等(deng)，因此(ci)得出人身(shen)傷(shang)(shang)害(hai)事(shi)故(gu)是企業應(ying)高度關注的(de)風險(xian)，因此(ci)將人身(shen)傷(shang)(shang)害(hai)專項預案放在了第一位，并且編制高處墜(zhui)落和觸電現場處置(zhi)方案。

3）巖土施工作業過程中(zhong)基坑邊(bian)坡失穩坍塌的(de)(de)風險(xian)(xian)等(deng)(deng)級為(wei)“高度危(wei)險(xian)(xian)”，觸電(dian)、機械傷害風險(xian)(xian)等(deng)(deng)級為(wei)“顯著(zhu)危(wei)險(xian)(xian)”，因此巖土施工專(zhuan)項預(yu)案明(ming)確(que)為(wei)基坑坍塌專(zhuan)項預(yu)案，其他風險(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)應(ying)對在人身(shen)傷害專(zhuan)項預(yu)案中(zhong)已經包含。

4）自然災害方面，根(gen)據企業(ye)的作業(ye)范(fan)圍和特點，其直接遭受地震、泥石流、洪(hong)水的可能性并(bing)不大(da)，最其作業(ye)直接有影響(xiang)的是大(da)風(feng)和雷電天(tian)氣，因為將(jiang)自然災害專項預案確定為“防(fang)風(feng)、防(fang)雷專項預案”，重點針對大(da)風(feng)、雷電天(tian)氣進行(xing)預防(fang)，編(bian)制事故發生前的防(fang)范(fan)措施。

優化后(hou)的(de)應(ying)急(ji)(ji)(ji)預案(an)體系如(ru)圖2所(suo)示，優化后(hou)的(de)應(ying)急(ji)(ji)(ji)預案(an)體系體現了企業(ye)的(de)生(sheng)產作業(ye)特點，也使(shi)后(hou)續的(de)具體應(ying)急(ji)(ji)(ji)預案(an)內容編制更具針(zhen)對性。

3.結論

通過風險(xian)評估進行于應(ying)急預(yu)案體(ti)系優化這一過程(cheng)，總結其對應(ying)急預(yu)案編制的(de)意(yi)義(yi)主要體(ti)現在以下幾(ji)個方面：

1）解決了企業(ye)“要編(bian)制(zhi)哪些預案(an)”的(de)問題，企業(ye)的(de)應急資源和能力是(shi)有限(xian)的(de)，通過(guo)風(feng)險評(ping)估，對(dui)企業(ye)潛在的(de)危險源進行梳理，評(ping)估出各類事(shi)故(gu)的(de)風(feng)險等級(ji)，有針(zhen)(zhen)對(dui)性的(de)對(dui)高(gao)風(feng)險的(de)事(shi)故(gu)編(bian)制(zhi)相應的(de)應急預案(an)才能最大的(de)發揮應急預案(an)降低事(shi)故(gu)損失的(de)作用，針(zhen)(zhen)對(dui)性強了，企業(ye)的(de)重視度就(jiu)高(gao)了。

2）應急預(yu)案體系確(que)定后，由(you)于風(feng)險(xian)評估確(que)定了(le)各類危險(xian)源的具體風(feng)險(xian)等級(ji)或分志，企業(ye)在預(yu)案內容編(bian)制過程中，也(ye)能進一步突出(chu)主次(ci)和重點。

3）風險評(ping)估確(que)定風險等級的(de)(de)(de)同時，也提出了(le)相(xiang)(xiang)應的(de)(de)(de)預防和控制(zhi)措施(shi)，可(ke)以使企業(ye)更清(qing)楚的(de)(de)(de)了(le)解到(dao)自身生產經營(ying)活動中(zhong)潛在(zai)的(de)(de)(de)各類(lei)事故風險，進而加強相(xiang)(xiang)應的(de)(de)(de)安全(quan)管理，做到(dao)有的(de)(de)(de)放矢。

4）風險(xian)評估(gu)是一(yi)個全員參與的(de)(de)(de)過(guo)程，經過(guo)這樣的(de)(de)(de)一(yi)個過(guo)程增強了員工安全防范知(zhi)識的(de)(de)(de)同時，也會在一(yi)定(ding)意義上提高員工的(de)(de)(de)安全意識。

參考文獻

[1]GB/T29639-2013. 生產(chan)經營(ying)單位生產(chan)安(an)全事故應急預案編(bian)制導則(ze).

[2]樊(fan)運曉(xiao).應急(ji)預案編制實(shi)務――理(li)論實(shi)踐(jian)案例(li).化學工業出(chu)版社，2006.

[3]嚴晗，李明.建(jian)筑企業應急預(yu)案編(bian)制范圍研究.建(jian)筑安全，2007年(nian)第8期：18-20.

篇7

一、風險評估的主要內容

1　合法性評估

住(zhu)(zhu)房(fang)保(bao)障(zhang)政策(ce)(ce)的合(he)(he)(he)法(fa)(fa)性(xing)評估是(shi)住(zhu)(zhu)房(fang)保(bao)障(zhang)政策(ce)(ce)制定過程中(zhong)(zhong)的一個(ge)重要階段，也是(shi)住(zhu)(zhu)房(fang)保(bao)障(zhang)政策(ce)(ce)得以(yi)順利實施的前提。合(he)(he)(he)法(fa)(fa)性(xing)評估是(shi)整個(ge)風險評估體系(xi)中(zhong)(zhong)最核心的內容，主要體現住(zhu)(zhu)房(fang)保(bao)障(zhang)政策(ce)(ce)的合(he)(he)(he)法(fa)(fa)化程度(du)。不合(he)(he)(he)法(fa)(fa)的決策(ce)(ce)，在實施過程中(zhong)(zhong)會面臨很大的風險。在合(he)(he)(he)法(fa)(fa)性(xing)評估時，主要通過決策(ce)(ce)主體合(he)(he)(he)法(fa)(fa)性(xing)、決策(ce)(ce)程序合(he)(he)(he)法(fa)(fa)性(xing)、決策(ce)(ce)內容合(he)(he)(he)法(fa)(fa)性(xing)三項指標來(lai)確定。

――決(jue)策(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)主體合(he)法。主要(yao)評估決(jue)策(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)者對于決(jue)策(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)事項(xiang)是否(fou)(fou)擁有法律或行政賦予的(de)(de)權限；是否(fou)(fou)嚴格在職權范圍內進行決(jue)策(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)。決(jue)策(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)主體的(de)(de)合(he)法性直接影(ying)響到政策(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)的(de)(de)合(he)法性，因此，在法定權限內制(zhi)訂(ding)住(zhu)房保(bao)障政策(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)是決(jue)策(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)者的(de)(de)最基本要(yao)求(qiu)。

――決策(ce)程序合(he)法(fa)。制定住房保(bao)障政策(ce)過程符(fu)合(he)法(fa)定程序既是依法(fa)行政的制度(du)性要求，也(ye)是決策(ce)民主化、科學化的必備要件。住房保(bao)障政策(ce)風險評估時要評估政策(ce)制定的立項與起(qi)草、審查、決定是否符(fu)合(he)法(fa)律規定的程序。

――決策(ce)內容合法(fa)。政(zheng)策(ce)的制(zhi)定(ding)(ding)主要是為了滿足實施(shi)的需要，必(bi)須有(you)法(fa)律、法(fa)規或(huo)規章的依據。評估中要分析主要條款有(you)無(wu)上位法(fa)依據，分析具(ju)體內容是否與(yu)(yu)法(fa)律已(yi)有(you)之規定(ding)(ding)相(xiang)悖，以(yi)避免政(zheng)策(ce)與(yu)(yu)政(zheng)策(ce)之間、政(zheng)策(ce)與(yu)(yu)法(fa)律之間相(xiang)沖突的局面出現。

2　合理性評估

住房保障政(zheng)策的(de)(de)合(he)理性評(ping)估(gu)就是(shi)要評(ping)估(gu)政(zheng)策內容的(de)(de)設定是(shi)否符合(he)本地(di)區近期和長遠發(fa)展規劃，是(shi)否兼顧了(le)(le)各方(fang)利(li)益群(qun)體(ti)的(de)(de)不同需求，是(shi)否超越(yue)了(le)(le)大多數(shu)群(qun)眾的(de)(de)承受能力，是(shi)否考慮了(le)(le)地(di)區的(de)(de)平衡性、社會的(de)(de)穩定性、發(fa)展的(de)(de)持續性。

住(zhu)房(fang)保(bao)障政策(ce)制定(ding)是一項(xiang)系統性的(de)工作，涉及到政府財政承受能(neng)力(li)、居民(min)收入水平和住(zhu)房(fang)狀況、群眾(zhong)保(bao)障方式意愿等多方面，必須在(zai)綜合考慮(lv)各方面因(yin)素的(de)情況下，根據當(dang)地的(de)實際情況，選取最(zui)(zui)為合理(li)的(de)政策(ce)，在(zai)確保(bao)財政支付(fu)能(neng)力(li)的(de)前提下，滿(man)足最(zui)(zui)多數群眾(zhong)的(de)住(zhu)房(fang)保(bao)障需求。

具(ju)體操作上，可以將每(mei)種住房保(bao)障(zhang)政策實施可能帶來的(de)(de)(de)社會效(xiao)益、經濟效(xiao)益，是(shi)否(fou)(fou)符合(he)群眾(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)當前利(li)益、長(chang)遠(yuan)利(li)益，是(shi)否(fou)(fou)符合(he)政府的(de)(de)(de)近期規劃、長(chang)遠(yuan)規劃等細化為各項指(zhi)標(biao)，對每(mei)個指(zhi)標(biao)逐一評(ping)分(fen)。通過科學、系統地分(fen)析利(li)弊(bi)，每(mei)項指(zhi)標(biao)中利(li)大于弊(bi)的(de)(de)(de)計正分(fen)，弊(bi)大于利(li)的(de)(de)(de)計負分(fen)，最(zui)后按加(jia)權平均的(de)(de)(de)方式(shi)計算總分(fen)，參照分(fen)值(zhi)對照表進行評(ping)估(gu)，得出擬(ni)決策事項是(shi)否(fou)(fou)具(ju)有合(he)理(li)(li)性及合(he)理(li)(li)性程(cheng)度的(de)(de)(de)結論。

3　可行性評估

住房保障政(zheng)策的(de)(de)可(ke)行性評(ping)(ping)估是(shi)指要評(ping)(ping)估政(zheng)策內容(rong)是(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)經過充分研究論證，是(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)具有(you)可(ke)操作性，是(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)符合大多數(shu)群眾的(de)(de)意(yi)愿，所需(xu)的(de)(de)人力、財力、物力是(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)在可(ke)承受的(de)(de)范圍內并具有(you)保障，是(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)能確保連續性和(he)穩定(ding)性，時機(ji)是(shi)否(fou)(fou)(fou)(fou)成熟(shu)。

住房保(bao)(bao)障工(gong)作(zuo)是一項(xiang)政(zheng)府(fu)重大(da)公共(gong)事務，涉及大(da)規模的財政(zheng)資金使用，進行可(ke)(ke)行性評(ping)估(gu)，可(ke)(ke)以確保(bao)(bao)財政(zheng)資金使用的有效性、安全性，防(fang)止出現政(zheng)策“叫好不叫座”的現象。

評估中要多途(tu)徑、多渠道充分聽取住房(fang)困難群(qun)眾(zhong)和社會(hui)各(ge)界的(de)意(yi)見(jian)(jian)，特別(bie)是(shi)征(zheng)求直接利益群(qun)體(ti)的(de)意(yi)見(jian)(jian)和建議。對群(qun)眾(zhong)提出的(de)意(yi)見(jian)(jian)、建議及(ji)時(shi)收集、歸納和整理，依據(ju)實際的(de)數據(ju)回饋情況，進行數據(ju)的(de)分析(xi)和各(ge)項指標(biao)分值的(de)計算、匯總(zong)，得出是(shi)否可行的(de)結(jie)論。

4　安全性評估

住房保障(zhang)政策的(de)安全性(xing)評估是指要評估政策內容對所涉(she)區(qu)域、群眾利(li)益和生(sheng)產生(sheng)活的(de)影(ying)響(xiang)，群眾對該影(ying)響(xiang)的(de)承(cheng)受能(neng)力(li)，引發(fa)矛盾糾紛、的(de)可能(neng)性(xing)，是否有相應(ying)的(de)風險規(gui)避、防范、處置措施和應(ying)急預案。

涉及(ji)群眾利益的重大(da)決策事(shi)項(xiang)，是最有(you)可能影響社會穩(wen)定的風險源，對這(zhe)些決策事(shi)項(xiang)必(bi)須進行社會穩(wen)定風險評估。特(te)別是住房保障(zhang)政(zheng)策的制定中，由于政(zheng)策的新老銜接(jie)過(guo)程中存在保障(zhang)方式和保障(zhang)標(biao)準(zhun)不一(yi)致，可能會引起已(yi)經保障(zhang)群體的不滿，引發(fa)。

在(zai)評(ping)估過程中，一方(fang)面要對(dui)某項(xiang)(xiang)決(jue)策(ce)擬實施(shi)地區承受(shou)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)最(zui)大(da)能(neng)力(li)進(jin)行(xing)評(ping)估。通過分析(xi)決(jue)策(ce)事項(xiang)(xiang)將要實施(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)地區、范(fan)圍(wei)內的(de)(de)(de)(de)政(zheng)治(zhi)、經濟、社會形勢，與特定(ding)(ding)的(de)(de)(de)(de)標準或最(zui)佳慣例進(jin)行(xing)對(dui)照，得(de)出(chu)該地區最(zui)高能(neng)承受(shou)哪個等級風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)結論(lun)。另一方(fang)面要分析(xi)政(zheng)策(ce)制(zhi)定(ding)(ding)后的(de)(de)(de)(de)社會穩定(ding)(ding)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)概率(lv)及可能(neng)帶來(lai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)負面影(ying)響(xiang)，據此評(ping)定(ding)(ding)安(an)全(quan)性等級。評(ping)定(ding)(ding)的(de)(de)(de)(de)安(an)全(quan)性等級在(zai)當(dang)地風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)承受(shou)能(neng)力(li)范(fan)圍(wei)之內的(de)(de)(de)(de)，對(dui)決(jue)策(ce)事項(xiang)(xiang)先試(shi)行(xing)，在(zai)試(shi)行(xing)期間運用風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)消(xiao)減(jian)對(dui)策(ce)做好(hao)穩定(ding)(ding)工(gong)作，經試(shi)行(xing)決(jue)策(ce)運行(xing)良好(hao)、未(wei)出(chu)現安(an)全(quan)性風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)，可以(yi)正式施(shi)行(xing)；評(ping)定(ding)(ding)的(de)(de)(de)(de)安(an)全(quan)性風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等級超出(chu)當(dang)地風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)承受(shou)能(neng)力(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)，決(jue)策(ce)暫緩出(chu)臺(tai)，按(an)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)消(xiao)減(jian)對(dui)策(ce)改(gai)進(jin)決(jue)策(ce)內容，消(xiao)減(jian)安(an)全(quan)性風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，取(qu)得(de)群(qun)眾(zhong)支持后，重(zhong)新進(jin)行(xing)評(ping)估。

在進行安全性(xing)評(ping)(ping)估(gu)的(de)(de)(de)同時，要按(an)照風(feng)險(xian)(xian)消(xiao)減(jian)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)策(ce)(ce)做好(hao)預(yu)防和消(xiao)減(jian)措(cuo)施，加強社會穩定風(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)防范。風(feng)險(xian)(xian)消(xiao)減(jian)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)策(ce)(ce)就(jiu)是將風(feng)險(xian)(xian)降到最低程度的(de)(de)(de)措(cuo)施。通過安全性(xing)評(ping)(ping)估(gu)的(de)(de)(de)實施，對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)影響穩定的(de)(de)(de)問(wen)題的(de)(de)(de)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)源加以客觀分(fen)析，對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)癥下藥提出(chu)控(kong)制風(feng)險(xian)(xian)和消(xiao)減(jian)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)策(ce)(ce)。

二、風險評(ping)估的基本方法

在進(jin)行住(zhu)房保(bao)障政策制定前，南通市堅持按照(zhao)“五步(bu)工作法”開展(zhan)風險評估(gu)，取得了(le)較好的成效。

第一步(bu)，全面掌握情況(kuang)，制(zhi)定(ding)評估方案。

對(dui)于(yu)確定(ding)(ding)開展風險評(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)的(de)項(xiang)目，要充分了(le)解掌握評(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)對(dui)象(xiang)的(de)基本情況，為(wei)(wei)預測評(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)提供(gong)準確可(ke)靠的(de)第一手(shou)資料。同時(shi)要逐一制(zhi)定(ding)(ding)評(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)方(fang)(fang)案。評(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)方(fang)(fang)案的(de)主要內容(rong)包括評(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)事項(xiang)、評(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)重點(dian)內容(rong)、評(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)牽(qian)頭部門和(he)協助部門、評(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)小組成(cheng)員、評(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)實(shi)施(shi)方(fang)(fang)法和(he)步(bu)驟等。評(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)重點(dian)內容(rong)包括：政策(ce)的(de)出臺是(shi)(shi)否合法，是(shi)(shi)否符合相關(guan)法律、政策(ce)、規定(ding)(ding)；政策(ce)是(shi)(shi)否符合地方(fang)(fang)經濟社會(hui)發展水平；政策(ce)是(shi)(shi)否為(wei)(wei)絕大多數群眾接受和(he)支持，是(shi)(shi)否兼(jian)顧了(le)群眾的(de)現實(shi)利(li)益和(he)長遠利(li)益；項(xiang)目實(shi)施(shi)后可(ke)能會(hui)帶來哪些(xie)影響社會(hui)穩定(ding)(ding)的(de)問題。

第二步，收(shou)集社情民意，實施(shi)重點(dian)論證。

政策制定(ding)過程中，可以(yi)采(cai)取召開座談會、聽(ting)(ting)證會、問(wen)卷(juan)調(diao)查、重點走訪等多(duo)種形式，廣泛征求社會各界特別(bie)是利益群(qun)體(ti)的(de)意見和(he)建(jian)議，準確把握群(qun)眾對政策的(de)反(fan)應(ying)和(he)心理動態。對爭(zheng)議較大、專業性(xing)強的(de)評估(gu)事項，還應(ying)按照有關法律法規和(he)有關規定(ding)要求，組織相關代表和(he)群(qun)眾進行聽(ting)(ting)證和(he)論證，提(ti)高評估(gu)工作(zuo)的(de)科(ke)學(xue)性(xing)、合理性(xing)和(he)民(min)意性(xing)。

第三(san)步，匯(hui)總分析論(lun)證，形(xing)成評估報告。

結(jie)合各方面掌握(wo)情(qing)況，對政(zheng)策實施(shi)的(de)前提、實際及后續社會影響、配套措施(shi)等進行科(ke)學預(yu)測和論證(zheng)分(fen)析，特(te)別要對實施(shi)政(zheng)策可能引發(fa)的(de)矛盾沖突(tu)及所(suo)涉(she)及的(de)人員數量(liang)、范(fan)(fan)圍和激烈程度作出評(ping)估(gu)(gu)預(yu)測，并(bing)制定(ding)相應(ying)(ying)的(de)防范(fan)(fan)、應(ying)(ying)急預(yu)案，形成評(ping)估(gu)(gu)報告，得出評(ping)估(gu)(gu)結(jie)論。

第四步，運用評(ping)估結(jie)論(lun)，落實維穩措(cuo)施。

在(zai)充分調研、科(ke)學預(yu)測的基礎上，按(an)照民主(zhu)

集中制(zhi)的(de)(de)原則，對(dui)制(zhi)定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)的(de)(de)政(zheng)策作(zuo)出實(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)施(shi)、暫緩實(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)施(shi)或暫不(bu)實(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)施(shi)的(de)(de)決定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)。對(dui)雖存(cun)在(zai)一(yi)些矛盾(dun)(dun)和問題，經評估(gu)認定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)可以實(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)施(shi)的(de)(de)事項(xiang)(xiang)，要落(luo)實(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)解(jie)決矛盾(dun)(dun)、維護穩定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)的(de)(de)具體(ti)(ti)措(cuo)施(shi)；對(dui)存(cun)在(zai)較大(da)(da)矛盾(dun)(dun)和穩定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)隱患，經評估(gu)認定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)暫緩實(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)施(shi)、暫不(bu)實(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)施(shi)的(de)(de)事項(xiang)(xiang)，及(ji)時研究(jiu)對(dui)策，化解(jie)矛盾(dun)(dun)，等待時機成熟后再行實(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)施(shi)；對(dui)容易引發重(zhong)大(da)(da)矛盾(dun)(dun)沖突的(de)(de)，經評估(gu)認定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)符(fu)合有關法律法規(gui)規(gui)定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)、亟(ji)需實(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)施(shi)的(de)(de)事項(xiang)(xiang)，要提前制(zhi)定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)防(fang)(fang)范處(chu)置(zhi)(zhi)工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)預(yu)案(an)，有針對(dui)性地(di)做好群眾工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)，嚴(yan)防(fang)(fang)涉穩重(zhong)大(da)(da)事件的(de)(de)發生(sheng)。防(fang)(fang)范處(chu)置(zhi)(zhi)工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)預(yu)案(an)的(de)(de)主要內(nei)容包括：組織領導、職責分工(gong)(gong)及(ji)其聯(lian)絡方(fang)式；預(yu)防(fang)(fang)和處(chu)置(zhi)(zhi)工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)的(de)(de)具體(ti)(ti)措(cuo)施(shi)；維穩工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)考評細則和對(dui)重(zhong)視不(bu)夠、工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)不(bu)力而發生(sheng)影響穩定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)重(zhong)大(da)(da)問題的(de)(de)責任查究(jiu)辦法。

第五步，實(shi)時關注(zhu)過程(cheng)，做好(hao)全(quan)程(cheng)監督。

對經過評估(gu)已經付諸實(shi)施(shi)(shi)的(de)政策(ce)，評估(gu)工作班子要堅持全(quan)程(cheng)跟蹤并做(zuo)好后續(xu)評估(gu)，建立評估(gu)檔(dang)案，及(ji)時發現(xian)和(he)化解(jie)實(shi)施(shi)(shi)過程(cheng)中(zhong)的(de)各類矛(mao)盾(dun)和(he)問題(ti)，完善相(xiang)應措施(shi)(shi)，確保政策(ce)的(de)正(zheng)確貫(guan)徹執行。

三(san)、風險評估的保證措施

為確保風險(xian)(xian)評(ping)估進行的科學性(xing)、公(gong)正性(xing)，防止風險(xian)(xian)評(ping)估流于(yu)形式，必須采(cai)取(qu)一些措施來予以(yi)保證。

1　用評估者與決策者分離來(lai)保證風險評估的獨立性

為避(bi)免風(feng)(feng)(feng)險評(ping)估(gu)(gu)流于形式，確(que)保風(feng)(feng)(feng)險評(ping)估(gu)(gu)機(ji)制(zhi)落到實(shi)處(chu)，評(ping)估(gu)(gu)的(de)實(shi)施者與決策的(de)制(zhi)定(ding)者不能(neng)合(he)二為一，應成立專(zhuan)(zhuan)門的(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險評(ping)估(gu)(gu)機(ji)構(gou)，負責對一定(ding)區域和范圍內的(de)住房保障決策事(shi)項進行事(shi)前的(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險評(ping)估(gu)(gu)。這(zhe)個專(zhuan)(zhuan)門的(de)評(ping)估(gu)(gu)機(ji)構(gou)既(ji)可(ke)以(yi)是不承擔(dan)行政職能(neng)的(de)社會中介組織，也可(ke)以(yi)由政府從監察(cha)、、法制(zhi)等(deng)部(bu)門抽調人(ren)員組成。評(ping)估(gu)(gu)者與決策者分離的(de)最大好處(chu)就(jiu)是以(yi)評(ping)估(gu)(gu)的(de)系統化、專(zhuan)(zhuan)業化水(shui)平來保證(zheng)決策的(de)科學性，防(fang)止公(gong)共權力通過決策環節(jie)侵蝕公(gong)共利益進而影響改革發展(zhan)穩定(ding)的(de)大局。

2　用考核(he)監督(du)和責(ze)任追究來保證評估人員的責(ze)任心

篇8

關鍵詞：橋梁工(gong)程施工(gong)；風險識(shi)別；評估探析

當(dang)前的施工橋(qiao)梁(liang)(liang)工程越發的意識到施工安全的重要性，并力求通過風險(xian)識別(bie)以及(ji)評(ping)估探析(xi)的作用，提升橋(qiao)梁(liang)(liang)工程施工的安全性，提升橋(qiao)梁(liang)(liang)施工的效率，基于這一問(wen)題，筆者進(jin)行了切實的探究。

一、對(dui)于橋梁施(shi)工風險(xian)管理淺(qian)析

施(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)手段是(shi)橋梁施(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)過(guo)(guo)程(cheng)(cheng)中非(fei)常重要的(de)(de)(de)(de)環節，它可以為(wei)橋梁施(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)提供切實的(de)(de)(de)(de)安全保障(zhang)(zhang)。我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)施(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)機制(zhi)起(qi)步較(jiao)晚，很多時候，對于(yu)實際(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)橋梁施(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)意(yi)識(shi)不(bu)足，直到(dao)(dao)(dao)二十世紀七(qi)十年代(dai)末，才將施(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)手段逐(zhu)漸(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)落實實踐(jian)施(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)當(dang)中，這(zhe)樣的(de)(de)(de)(de)情況，導致我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)施(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)手段受到(dao)(dao)(dao)了較(jiao)大的(de)(de)(de)(de)制(zhi)約，除(chu)此之外，當(dang)時的(de)(de)(de)(de)中國(guo)(guo)(guo)屬于(yu)計劃(hua)經(jing)(jing)濟體制(zhi)，多數的(de)(de)(de)(de)施(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)都隸屬于(yu)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)的(de)(de)(de)(de)管(guan)(guan)(guan)制(zhi)，產(chan)生的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)也(ye)直接由(you)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)自(zi)行(xing)承擔，導致項目履行(xing)者無法意(yi)識(shi)到(dao)(dao)(dao)自(zi)身的(de)(de)(de)(de)所(suo)具備的(de)(de)(de)(de)職責，進而(er)為(wei)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)施(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)以及(ji)控制(zhi)受到(dao)(dao)(dao)諸多的(de)(de)(de)(de)阻礙。自(zi)從改革開放以來我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)社(she)會經(jing)(jing)濟體制(zhi)在(zai)不(bu)斷地發(fa)(fa)生著(zhu)轉(zhuan)變和(he)更新，這(zhe)一發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)形勢(shi)，為(wei)我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)施(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)提供了新的(de)(de)(de)(de)契機，風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)以及(ji)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)控制(zhi)已(yi)經(jing)(jing)成(cheng)為(wei)當(dang)前工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)施(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)重要措(cuo)施(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，尤(you)其是(shi)在(zai)橋梁工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)施(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)過(guo)(guo)程(cheng)(cheng)中，已(yi)經(jing)(jing)越發(fa)(fa)的(de)(de)(de)(de)注重風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)控制(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)作(zuo)用，力(li)求通(tong)過(guo)(guo)這(zhe)一方(fang)式提升施(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)過(guo)(guo)程(cheng)(cheng)中的(de)(de)(de)(de)安全性(xing)，進而(er)保障(zhang)(zhang)施(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)進度。雖(sui)說(shuo)我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)施(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)起(qi)步較(jiao)晚，管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)水平也(ye)不(bu)成(cheng)熟，但是(shi)，在(zai)實踐(jian)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)中，我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)施(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)已(yi)經(jing)(jing)在(zai)不(bu)斷的(de)(de)(de)(de)完善和(he)健全[1]。

二、對于橋梁工程施工風(feng)險(xian)識別以(yi)(yi)及評(ping)估的(de)內容以(yi)(yi)及關(guan)系分析

橋梁工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)別(bie)以及(ji)評(ping)估(gu)(gu)是(shi)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管理(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)重要(yao)內容，在(zai)(zai)落實(shi)(shi)橋梁工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管理(li)措施(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)過(guo)程(cheng)(cheng)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，其(qi)具體(ti)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)實(shi)(shi)施(shi)步(bu)驟如下，在(zai)(zai)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)之(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)前，對(dui)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)所(suo)面臨的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)數據(ju)以及(ji)因(yin)素(su)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)充分(fen)(fen)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)考(kao)慮和分(fen)(fen)析，而(er)后再將其(qi)以信息的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)形式進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)反饋(kui)，在(zai)(zai)實(shi)(shi)施(shi)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)過(guo)程(cheng)(cheng)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，則應(ying)當(dang)充分(fen)(fen)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)考(kao)慮施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)現(xian)場的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)實(shi)(shi)際情(qing)況，與(yu)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)負責人的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)多年施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)經(jing)驗完美的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)結(jie)合，再對(dui)現(xian)場的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)分(fen)(fen)析和識(shi)別(bie)和管理(li)，最后再將其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)所(suo)涵(han)蓋的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)素(su)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)系統的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)分(fen)(fen)析。在(zai)(zai)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)計(ji)劃階(jie)段也(ye)要(yao)考(kao)慮到(dao)(dao)(dao)其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)素(su)，讓風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)意識(shi)落實(shi)(shi)到(dao)(dao)(dao)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)各個(ge)(ge)環節，進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)而(er)保障施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)安全(quan)性(xing)。要(yao)想將風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)估(gu)(gu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)作用最大程(cheng)(cheng)度的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)發揮，還可以通過(guo)構建特(te)定部門的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)方(fang)式，對(dui)當(dang)前的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)現(xian)場進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)估(gu)(gu)，而(er)后安排(pai)專(zhuan)業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)人員對(dui)其(qi)定時檢查(cha)(cha)。如果檢查(cha)(cha)之(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)后發現(xian)其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)存(cun)(cun)在(zai)(zai)紕(pi)漏，那么(me)應(ying)當(dang)及(ji)時的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)對(dui)此問題上(shang)報，進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)而(er)及(ji)時的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)解決，與(yu)此同時，還要(yao)將風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)應(ying)對(dui)措施(shi)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)更(geng)新，制(zhi)定出切(qie)合實(shi)(shi)際的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)應(ying)對(dui)方(fang)案，保障工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)度和效(xiao)率。如果在(zai)(zai)檢查(cha)(cha)之(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)后未(wei)發現(xian)影(ying)(ying)響工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)實(shi)(shi)施(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)素(su)，那么(me)則可應(ying)用此風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)估(gu)(gu)措施(shi)，對(dui)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)過(guo)程(cheng)(cheng)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)防范。風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)別(bie)是(shi)實(shi)(shi)現(xian)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)控制(zhi)以及(ji)評(ping)估(gu)(gu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)重要(yao)內容，在(zai)(zai)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管理(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)過(guo)程(cheng)(cheng)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)別(bie)得是(shi)否全(quan)面以及(ji)準確(que)，可以直接(jie)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)(ying)響到(dao)(dao)(dao)最終的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)估(gu)(gu)水平，最終還會影(ying)(ying)響到(dao)(dao)(dao)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)度[2]。風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)估(gu)(gu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)內容可以歸納為：全(quan)面的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)分(fen)(fen)析橋梁工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)過(guo)程(cheng)(cheng)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)各個(ge)(ge)環節以及(ji)內容所(suo)存(cun)(cun)在(zai)(zai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，而(er)后找尋處切(qie)合實(shi)(shi)際的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)解決方(fang)式。

三(san)、對于橋梁工程(cheng)實施風險評(ping)估以及識別建議(yi)

在對(dui)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)進(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)之前，就應(ying)成立專門的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)小組和風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)小組，而后有關(guan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)領導還(huan)要(yao)(yao)針對(dui)其(qi)中的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)員(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)職責(ze)(ze)(ze)進(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)明確的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)劃分，將風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)以及(ji)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)工(gong)(gong)(gong)作環(huan)節以及(ji)內(nei)容(rong)(rong)落實到個人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)頭(tou)上(shang)，這(zhe)樣可以為(wei)橋(qiao)梁(liang)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)以及(ji)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)更(geng)為(wei)科(ke)學(xue)、合(he)理(li)，使人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)員(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)安(an)(an)排更(geng)為(wei)合(he)理(li)，避(bi)免出(chu)現職責(ze)(ze)(ze)意(yi)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)不(bu)清(qing)，以及(ji)躲避(bi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)作責(ze)(ze)(ze)任的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)情(qing)況，一(yi)旦(dan)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)以及(ji)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)過(guo)(guo)(guo)程(cheng)(cheng)中，出(chu)現了較為(wei)嚴(yan)重的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)問(wen)題，那么就要(yao)(yao)將責(ze)(ze)(ze)任落實到負責(ze)(ze)(ze)這(zhe)一(yi)部分工(gong)(gong)(gong)作內(nei)容(rong)(rong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)員(yuan)頭(tou)上(shang)，這(zhe)樣的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)方(fang)式還(huan)會很大(da)程(cheng)(cheng)度上(shang)提升(sheng)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)以及(ji)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)科(ke)學(xue)性，并(bing)保證施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)過(guo)(guo)(guo)程(cheng)(cheng)中的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)安(an)(an)全(quan)性。在落實橋(qiao)梁(liang)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)以及(ji)評(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)過(guo)(guo)(guo)程(cheng)(cheng)中，還(huan)應(ying)當從(cong)不(bu)同的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)角度著手，比如，環(huan)境、人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)、制度、物以及(ji)工(gong)(gong)(gong)藝等(deng)方(fang)面，全(quan)面的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)對(dui)橋(qiao)梁(liang)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)進(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)以及(ji)評(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)，保證施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)管理(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)順(shun)利(li)進(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)[3]。像環(huan)境風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)方(fang)面，涵蓋著施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)環(huan)境、辦(ban)公施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)生活(huo)、施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)作業等(deng)等(deng)方(fang)面，在進(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)以及(ji)評(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)過(guo)(guo)(guo)程(cheng)(cheng)中，一(yi)定要(yao)(yao)注重施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)環(huan)境風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)這(zhe)一(yi)重點因素，充分的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)考(kao)慮橋(qiao)梁(liang)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)中的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)環(huan)境因素所帶(dai)來(lai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)危(wei)(wei)害和風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)，進(jin)(jin)(jin)而在提升(sheng)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)能力的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)同時，提升(sheng)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)水平，從(cong)環(huan)境風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)角度，降低施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)過(guo)(guo)(guo)程(cheng)(cheng)中風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)因素所帶(dai)來(lai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)危(wei)(wei)害。像人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)為(wei)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)方(fang)面，則(ze)更(geng)要(yao)(yao)對(dui)其(qi)全(quan)面的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)分析和探究，從(cong)總(zong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)、安(an)(an)全(quan)員(yuan)、經(jing)理(li)、班組長以及(ji)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)工(gong)(gong)(gong)等(deng)等(deng)方(fang)面著手，進(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)系(xi)統(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)分析[4]。

結束語

綜上所述(shu)，隨著社會經濟的(de)(de)(de)井噴式(shi)發展(zhan)，致(zhi)使(shi)人們(men)的(de)(de)(de)生活理(li)念(nian)也(ye)(ye)逐漸的(de)(de)(de)在(zai)(zai)實(shi)(shi)現(xian)著變革，人們(men)越(yue)發提升了對(dui)施(shi)(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)質(zhi)量(liang)的(de)(de)(de)要求，而(er)相關的(de)(de)(de)施(shi)(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)單(dan)位(wei)(wei)在(zai)(zai)進(jin)行工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)施(shi)(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)時(shi)，也(ye)(ye)越(yue)發的(de)(de)(de)重視施(shi)(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)安全的(de)(de)(de)作用，并(bing)通過(guo)科學的(de)(de)(de)、合理(li)的(de)(de)(de)方(fang)式(shi)對(dui)各類(lei)的(de)(de)(de)施(shi)(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)安全問題(ti)予(yu)以(yi)解(jie)決(jue)，以(yi)橋(qiao)(qiao)梁(liang)施(shi)(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)為例，諸(zhu)(zhu)多的(de)(de)(de)施(shi)(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)單(dan)位(wei)(wei)在(zai)(zai)進(jin)行橋(qiao)(qiao)梁(liang)施(shi)(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)時(shi)，都會通過(guo)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)別(bie)以(yi)及(ji)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)評估的(de)(de)(de)方(fang)式(shi)對(dui)施(shi)(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)過(guo)程(cheng)(cheng)中的(de)(de)(de)各類(lei)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)問題(ti)進(jin)行高效的(de)(de)(de)防范，為橋(qiao)(qiao)梁(liang)施(shi)(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)安全提供(gong)(gong)充足的(de)(de)(de)保障，與此(ci)同時(shi)，也(ye)(ye)會保障施(shi)(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)進(jin)度以(yi)及(ji)施(shi)(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)效率。但(dan)是很(hen)多施(shi)(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)單(dan)位(wei)(wei)在(zai)(zai)落實(shi)(shi)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)時(shi)，都會出現(xian)概念(nian)模糊的(de)(de)(de)現(xian)象，即(ji)便將風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)別(bie)和風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)評估落實(shi)(shi)到實(shi)(shi)踐中，仍舊會存在(zai)(zai)諸(zhu)(zhu)多的(de)(de)(de)問題(ti)，究其(qi)根本，無外乎對(dui)橋(qiao)(qiao)梁(liang)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)施(shi)(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)的(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)實(shi)(shi)施(shi)(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)不全面，致(zhi)使(shi)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)過(guo)程(cheng)(cheng)中，出現(xian)諸(zhu)(zhu)多的(de)(de)(de)管(guan)理(li)漏洞，進(jin)而(er)大大降低了風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)效率，因此(ci)，在(zai)(zai)落實(shi)(shi)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)別(bie)和評估的(de)(de)(de)過(guo)程(cheng)(cheng)中，應當注重科學性和合理(li)性，進(jin)而(er)為橋(qiao)(qiao)梁(liang)施(shi)(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)正常進(jin)行提供(gong)(gong)充足的(de)(de)(de)保障。

參考文獻

[1]項(xiang)貽(yi)強,張婷婷,孫筠等(deng).國外橋梁工程項(xiang)目風險及評估研究綜述(shu)[J].中外公路,2010,30(2):153-158.

[2]盧春林.淺埋(mai)暗挖隧道穿越既有橋梁風(feng)險評估方法(fa)研究[J].鐵道科學與(yu)工程(cheng)學報,2016,13(6):1156-1164.

[3]阮欣,朱少杰,葉曉牡等.復雜橋梁施(shi)工過(guo)程(cheng)的風(feng)險評估和(he)管理[J].公路,2012,12(7):178-182.

篇9

1大型群眾性活(huo)動(dong)面臨的主要安全風險

有關資料指(zhi)出(chu)：“法(fa)(fa)(fa)人(ren)(ren)(ren)或(huo)者(zhe)其他(ta)組(zu)織面(mian)向社(she)會(hui)公眾(zhong)舉(ju)辦(ban)的(de)(de)(de)(de)每場次預計參(can)加人(ren)(ren)(ren)數達到1000人(ren)(ren)(ren)以上(shang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)下(xia)列活(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)：①體(ti)育比賽活(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)；②演唱會(hui)、音(yin)樂會(hui)等文(wen)藝演出(chu)活(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)；③展覽(lan)、展銷(xiao)等活(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)；④游園(yuan)、燈會(hui)、廟會(hui)、花會(hui)、焰火(huo)晚(wan)會(hui)等活(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)；⑤人(ren)(ren)(ren)才招聘會(hui)、現(xian)(xian)場開獎的(de)(de)(de)(de)彩票銷(xiao)售等活(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)”為(wei)大(da)型(xing)群眾(zhong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)活(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)。要(yao)想舉(ju)辦(ban)大(da)型(xing)活(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)，需滿(man)足以下(xia)條(tiao)件：是(shi)要(yao)有明確(que)(que)的(de)(de)(de)(de)舉(ju)辦(ban)主(zhu)(zhu)題，通(tong)常是(shi)指(zhi)“法(fa)(fa)(fa)人(ren)(ren)(ren)或(huo)者(zhe)其他(ta)組(zu)織”；二是(shi)要(yao)有開放(fang)(fang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)參(can)與(yu)主(zhu)(zhu)體(ti)，通(tong)常是(shi)指(zhi)“社(she)會(hui)公眾(zhong)”；三(san)是(shi)要(yao)具備一定(ding)數量的(de)(de)(de)(de)參(can)與(yu)人(ren)(ren)(ren)員，通(tong)常是(shi)指(zhi)一千人(ren)(ren)(ren)以上(shang)；四是(shi)要(yao)有一個永久性(xing)(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)或(huo)臨時(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)特定(ding)的(de)(de)(de)(de)場所(suo)或(huo)場地；五是(shi)時(shi)間范圍應明確(que)(que)；六是(shi)內容和(he)主(zhu)(zhu)題必須明確(que)(que)；七是(shi)必須符(fu)合相(xiang)關的(de)(de)(de)(de)法(fa)(fa)(fa)律規定(ding)。綜上(shang)所(suo)述，“大(da)型(xing)群眾(zhong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)活(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)”可界定(ding)為(wei)：“由法(fa)(fa)(fa)人(ren)(ren)(ren)或(huo)者(zhe)某一組(zu)織在特定(ding)的(de)(de)(de)(de)時(shi)間和(he)特定(ding)的(de)(de)(de)(de)地點依法(fa)(fa)(fa)舉(ju)辦(ban)的(de)(de)(de)(de)面(mian)向社(she)會(hui)公眾(zhong)有較多(duo)參(can)與(yu)人(ren)(ren)(ren)員和(he)明確(que)(que)活(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)主(zhu)(zhu)題的(de)(de)(de)(de)群體(ti)性(xing)(xing)(xing)活(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)。”由于大(da)型(xing)群眾(zhong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)活(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)涉及到很多(duo)方面(mian)，具有場所(suo)開放(fang)(fang)、人(ren)(ren)(ren)員眾(zhong)多(duo)、規模宏大(da)、時(shi)間長、情況復雜、安(an)全(quan)隱患多(duo)等特點，所(suo)以若在大(da)型(xing)活(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)中未加強(qiang)管理的(de)(de)(de)(de)話，很容易出(chu)現(xian)(xian)各種治安(an)災害事(shi)故和(he)突發事(shi)件，這(zhe)些安(an)全(quan)風險的(de)(de)(de)(de)出(chu)現(xian)(xian)不僅會(hui)影響(xiang)到整個活(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)順利進(jin)行，還可能會(hui)危及人(ren)(ren)(ren)民的(de)(de)(de)(de)生命和(he)財產安(an)全(quan)，通(tong)常大(da)型(xing)群眾(zhong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)活(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)安(an)全(quan)風險主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)包括以下(xia)幾(ji)種：

1.1人(ren)群(qun)高度聚(ju)集引(yin)發(fa)的(de)(de)(de)風險(xian)大(da)型(xing)群(qun)眾性活動(dong)(dong)(dong)最顯(xian)著的(de)(de)(de)一個特征是(shi)參與人(ren)數眾多，且規模比較大(da)，正(zheng)是(shi)由于大(da)型(xing)群(qun)眾性活動(dong)(dong)(dong)的(de)(de)(de)這種特點，很(hen)容易引(yin)起(qi)很(hen)多不(bu)必(bi)要的(de)(de)(de)風險(xian)，這是(shi)因為在(zai)短時間內聚(ju)集大(da)量的(de)(de)(de)人(ren)群(qun)到特定的(de)(de)(de)場所，使活動(dong)(dong)(dong)場地迅速的(de)(de)(de)達到一種飽和狀(zhuang)態，不(bu)僅很(hen)容易出(chu)現大(da)規模的(de)(de)(de)擁擠，還可能(neng)引(yin)發(fa)各(ge)種各(ge)樣的(de)(de)(de)不(bu)確定風險(xian)。在(zai)大(da)型(xing)群(qun)眾性活動(dong)(dong)(dong)中形形的(de)(de)(de)人(ren)都有，每個人(ren)由于生(sheng)長環境、受教(jiao)育程度、性格(ge)等原因導致(zhi)(zhi)其(qi)表現出(chu)來的(de)(de)(de)行為方式存在(zai)很(hen)大(da)的(de)(de)(de)差(cha)別(bie)(bie)，而人(ren)與人(ren)之間的(de)(de)(de)差(cha)別(bie)(bie)若(ruo)(ruo)具(ju)象到具(ju)體的(de)(de)(de)事件中，就可能(neng)會導致(zhi)(zhi)矛盾的(de)(de)(de)升(sheng)起(qi)，此時若(ruo)(ruo)相關部門或者人(ren)員未及時處理得當，很(hen)可能(neng)會更加激化矛盾，造成該大(da)型(xing)群(qun)眾性活動(dong)(dong)(dong)失控，甚至造成人(ren)員傷亡事故。

1.2臨時(shi)(shi)(shi)性設備(bei)(bei)設施(shi)(shi)引(yin)發(fa)(fa)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)險對于(yu)任(ren)何一(yi)(yi)個參(can)與到(dao)大(da)(da)(da)型(xing)(xing)(xing)群(qun)眾(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)性活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)人來說，都(dou)是(shi)(shi)(shi)一(yi)(yi)個特殊的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)經(jing)(jing)歷(li)(li)或(huo)者體(ti)驗，由于(yu)大(da)(da)(da)型(xing)(xing)(xing)群(qun)眾(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)性活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)涉及范(fan)(fan)圍較廣，這(zhe)(zhe)意味著參(can)與者經(jing)(jing)歷(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)這(zhe)(zhe)件事情是(shi)(shi)(shi)超出自(zi)身的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)日(ri)常選擇范(fan)(fan)圍的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)，不(bu)是(shi)(shi)(shi)日(ri)常進行的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)。而大(da)(da)(da)型(xing)(xing)(xing)群(qun)眾(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)性活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)非常規(gui)性，決定了(le)(le)大(da)(da)(da)型(xing)(xing)(xing)群(qun)眾(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)性活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)沒有(you)固(gu)定的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)模式和(he)(he)內容，因此我們(men)發(fa)(fa)現(xian)，幾(ji)乎所有(you)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)大(da)(da)(da)型(xing)(xing)(xing)群(qun)眾(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)性活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)場(chang)地都(dou)是(shi)(shi)(shi)臨時(shi)(shi)(shi)性的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)，活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)中所用的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)設備(bei)(bei)等(deng)也都(dou)是(shi)(shi)(shi)臨時(shi)(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)。大(da)(da)(da)型(xing)(xing)(xing)群(qun)眾(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)性活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)臨時(shi)(shi)(shi)性設備(bei)(bei)設施(shi)(shi)引(yin)發(fa)(fa)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)險主(zhu)要(yao)體(ti)現(xian)在(zai)以下方面：一(yi)(yi)是(shi)(shi)(shi)部分主(zhu)辦(ban)方為了(le)(le)標新立異，過度地裝(zhuang)飾場(chang)地，對施(shi)(shi)工人員提(ti)出了(le)(le)很(hen)高的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)要(yao)求，同時(shi)(shi)(shi)也導(dao)(dao)致了(le)(le)場(chang)地和(he)(he)設備(bei)(bei)設施(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)險系數大(da)(da)(da)大(da)(da)(da)增加，這(zhe)(zhe)些復雜的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)場(chang)地和(he)(he)設施(shi)(shi)設置蘊含著很(hen)多的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)潛在(zai)風(feng)險，比如(ru)近年來，關于(yu)大(da)(da)(da)型(xing)(xing)(xing)活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)中舞臺塌陷的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)新聞屢(lv)屢(lv)傳來等(deng)，這(zhe)(zhe)就(jiu)是(shi)(shi)(shi)臨時(shi)(shi)(shi)性設備(bei)(bei)設施(shi)(shi)引(yin)發(fa)(fa)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)安全事故；二(er)是(shi)(shi)(shi)部分主(zhu)辦(ban)方為了(le)(le)節省活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)成本，將所有(you)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)精力都(dou)放在(zai)了(le)(le)活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)形式過程當(dang)中，不(bu)重視場(chang)所安全方面的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)險，導(dao)(dao)致大(da)(da)(da)型(xing)(xing)(xing)群(qun)眾(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)性活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)失控，甚至引(yin)發(fa)(fa)安全事故。

1.3不確定意(yi)外事(shi)件引(yin)發(fa)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風險(xian)由(you)于大(da)型群眾(zhong)性活(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)涉及(ji)到(dao)很多個(ge)方(fang)面，而(er)(er)安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)事(shi)故(gu)(gu)(gu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)生又是(shi)(shi)沒有(you)(you)規律性的(de)(de)(de)(de)，可以說(shuo)隨時隨地都有(you)(you)可能(neng)發(fa)生安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)事(shi)故(gu)(gu)(gu)，并且(qie)安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)事(shi)故(gu)(gu)(gu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)生通常(chang)(chang)都是(shi)(shi)在(zai)短時間內發(fa)生的(de)(de)(de)(de)，因此大(da)型群眾(zhong)性活(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)事(shi)故(gu)(gu)(gu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)生具有(you)(you)很強的(de)(de)(de)(de)不確定性，面對未知的(de)(de)(de)(de)東西，是(shi)(shi)很難做到(dao)周全(quan)(quan)(quan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)預防和應(ying)(ying)急措(cuo)施的(de)(de)(de)(de)。由(you)于群體(ti)聚集中會(hui)有(you)(you)“羊群效(xiao)應(ying)(ying)”，連鎖性反應(ying)(ying)的(de)(de)(de)(de)出現很可能(neng)只是(shi)(shi)因為一(yi)個(ge)非常(chang)(chang)規的(de)(de)(de)(de)動(dong)(dong)作或者一(yi)句謠言(yan)。在(zai)人群密(mi)集的(de)(de)(de)(de)場所一(yi)旦出現驚慌或者擁擠的(de)(de)(de)(de)情(qing)況，驚慌和擁擠就會(hui)蔓延到(dao)整個(ge)人群，進而(er)(er)破(po)壞掉整個(ge)群體(ti)活(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)秩(zhi)序，導(dao)致安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)事(shi)故(gu)(gu)(gu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)生，而(er)(er)且(qie)通常(chang)(chang)這(zhe)類安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)事(shi)故(gu)(gu)(gu)都是(shi)(shi)很嚴重(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)。

1.4暴力(li)恐怖(bu)(bu)活(huo)動(dong)引(yin)發的風險隨著我國(guo)改革(ge)改放(fang)的進一步(bu)深入和(he)各種利益關系(xi)的調整，社(she)會矛盾(dun)十分突出，和(he)重特(te)大刑事(shi)犯罪案件急(ji)劇增加，嚴重影響社(she)會穩(wen)定和(he)經濟社(she)會發展。特(te)別是近年來，暴力(li)恐怖(bu)(bu)勢(shi)力(li)、民族分裂勢(shi)力(li)、宗教極端勢(shi)力(li)十分猖獗，爆炸、縱火、砍人時有(you)發生(sheng)，是國(guo)家重點打擊和(he)防范(fan)的對象。大型(xing)群眾性活(huo)動(dong)就是他們進行(xing)各種破壞重點，以此制造(zao)重大人員傷亡和(he)惡(e)劣的政(zheng)治影響和(he)社(she)會影響。在舉(ju)辦大型(xing)群眾性活(huo)動(dong)之(zhi)前，在安全風險評估的過程(cheng)中，通過國(guo)家安全機(ji)關和(he)公(gong)安機(ji)關掌握(wo)敵社(she)情(qing)的預警性、內(nei)部性的情(qing)況信息，給公(gong)安機(ji)關行(xing)政(zheng)許可審核和(he)組織者(zhe)提供決策(ce)的依據。

2大型群眾性(xing)活動風險(xian)評估的(de)重要意(yi)義

大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)群(qun)(qun)眾(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)指(zhi)對(dui)(dui)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)群(qun)(qun)眾(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)中公(gong)(gong)共安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)質、概(gai)率(lv)、后果等(deng)(deng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)綜合(he)分(fen)析和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)判斷(duan)。開展大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)群(qun)(qun)眾(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)公(gong)(gong)共安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)意(yi)義(yi)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)顯(xian)著(zhu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)，主要(yao)(yao)(yao)有(you)(you)(you)以(yi)(yi)下幾個方(fang)面：一是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)消(xiao)除風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)前(qian)提(ti)條件。風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，通俗地(di)(di)講就是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)發生不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)幸事(shi)(shi)件的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)概(gai)率(lv)。其具有(you)(you)(you)客觀性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)、普遍性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)、必(bi)(bi)然性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)、可(ke)識(shi)別(bie)(bie)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)、可(ke)控性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)、損失(shi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)、不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)確(que)定(ding)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)社(she)會性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)質。風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)質告訴我們，風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)可(ke)以(yi)(yi)識(shi)別(bie)(bie)和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)控制(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)。風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)就是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)在(zai)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)群(qun)(qun)眾(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)舉(ju)辦(ban)之(zhi)前(qian)，通過(guo)(guo)現(xian)(xian)(xian)場勘查、風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)預測，把握可(ke)能(neng)出(chu)現(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)危機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)危害(hai)，提(ti)前(qian)擺放在(zai)活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)監管(guan)和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)組織者的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)面前(qian)，以(yi)(yi)法律的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)、制(zhi)度(du)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)、行(xing)(xing)政(zheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)、經(jing)濟(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)等(deng)(deng)多種手段(duan)來(lai)消(xiao)除和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)規(gui)(gui)避風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，提(ti)高(gao)(gao)預防(fang)和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)化(hua)解突發安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)事(shi)(shi)件的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)能(neng)力，減少各種事(shi)(shi)件出(chu)現(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)頻率(lv)和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)損失(shi)，為大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)群(qun)(qun)眾(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)舉(ju)辦(ban)創造安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)環境。二是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)實(shi)現(xian)(xian)(xian)社(she)會化(hua)管(guan)理的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)有(you)(you)(you)效(xiao)途(tu)徑。多年來(lai)，大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)群(qun)(qun)眾(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)在(zai)具體(ti)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)落實(shi)工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)中，沒(mei)有(you)(you)(you)明確(que)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)可(ke)操(cao)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)相關(guan)規(gui)(gui)范，致使(shi)活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)監管(guan)者、組織者、場地(di)(di)提(ti)供(gong)者和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)保(bao)(bao)(bao)工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)提(ti)供(gong)者的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)任(ren)(ren)務不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)清、責(ze)任(ren)(ren)不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)明，有(you)(you)(you)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)甚(shen)至將安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)部推(tui)給公(gong)(gong)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)關(guan)，對(dui)(dui)公(gong)(gong)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)關(guan)提(ti)出(chu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)合(he)理化(hua)建議推(tui)諉扯皮。其實(shi)本質上(shang)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)群(qun)(qun)眾(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)屬于社(she)會化(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)，其安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)保(bao)(bao)(bao)衛責(ze)任(ren)(ren)不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)僅(jin)僅(jin)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)公(gong)(gong)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)關(guan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)責(ze)任(ren)(ren)，同(tong)時(shi)(shi)也(ye)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)主辦(ban)方(fang)和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)場所(suo)管(guan)理者等(deng)(deng)共同(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)責(ze)任(ren)(ren)，由(you)于大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)群(qun)(qun)眾(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)能(neng)否安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)成功舉(ju)辦(ban)，不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)僅(jin)關(guan)系著(zhu)巨大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)經(jing)濟(ji)利益，更關(guan)系這(zhe)數(shu)千甚(shen)至上(shang)萬人(ren)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)生命安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)，任(ren)(ren)何一方(fang)都不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)能(neng)逃(tao)避自身的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)責(ze)任(ren)(ren)，必(bi)(bi)須認真履行(xing)(xing)自身的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)職責(ze)，確(que)保(bao)(bao)(bao)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)群(qun)(qun)眾(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)順利安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)舉(ju)辦(ban)。三是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)糾治不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)良傾向的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)有(you)(you)(you)效(xiao)手段(duan)。部分(fen)主辦(ban)方(fang)利欲熏心，為了達到自身的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)商(shang)業(ye)(ye)目的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)，無所(suo)不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)用(yong)其極，將活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)內(nei)容和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)場地(di)(di)布置(zhi)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)排的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)天(tian)花亂墜，但是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)忽視了場所(suo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)因素，單(dan)純地(di)(di)認為只要(yao)(yao)(yao)公(gong)(gong)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)關(guan)部門(men)(men)審(shen)批(pi)(pi)通過(guo)(guo)所(suo)有(you)(you)(you)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)就已經(jing)做(zuo)完(wan)(wan)了，未對(dui)(dui)活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)中的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)潛在(zai)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)進行(xing)(xing)必(bi)(bi)要(yao)(yao)(yao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)預防(fang)和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)修(xiu)正，導致大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)群(qun)(qun)眾(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)事(shi)(shi)故屢禁不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)止(zhi)。四是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)公(gong)(gong)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)關(guan)行(xing)(xing)政(zheng)許(xu)可(ke)審(shen)核(he)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)重要(yao)(yao)(yao)依據(ju)。與大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)群(qun)(qun)眾(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)相關(guan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)規(gui)(gui)章制(zhi)度(du)中規(gui)(gui)定(ding)，要(yao)(yao)(yao)想舉(ju)辦(ban)活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)參與人(ren)數(shu)超過(guo)(guo)一千人(ren)以(yi)(yi)上(shang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)群(qun)(qun)眾(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)，必(bi)(bi)須獲得(de)公(gong)(gong)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)關(guan)部門(men)(men)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)批(pi)(pi)準。目前(qian)公(gong)(gong)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)關(guan)部門(men)(men)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)批(pi)(pi)準過(guo)(guo)程包(bao)括很多的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)要(yao)(yao)(yao)求和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)程序，但是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)缺乏完(wan)(wan)善的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)，而(er)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)公(gong)(gong)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)關(guan)行(xing)(xing)政(zheng)許(xu)可(ke)審(shen)核(he)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)重要(yao)(yao)(yao)依據(ju)，因此，必(bi)(bi)須建立(li)完(wan)(wan)善的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)制(zhi)。五(wu)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)公(gong)(gong)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)關(guan)簡政(zheng)放權的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)具體(ti)體(ti)現(xian)(xian)(xian)。通過(guo)(guo)社(she)會上(shang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)專(zhuan)業(ye)(ye)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)公(gong)(gong)司，承接大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)群(qun)(qun)眾(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)業(ye)(ye)務，對(dui)(dui)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)承擔相應的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)責(ze)任(ren)(ren)，可(ke)減輕公(gong)(gong)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)關(guan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)壓力和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)輿論壓力。目前(qian)，隨著(zhu)我國保(bao)(bao)(bao)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)服務業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)快速發展，大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)專(zhuan)業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)保(bao)(bao)(bao)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)服務公(gong)(gong)司都有(you)(you)(you)專(zhuan)業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)、經(jing)過(guo)(guo)培訓(xun)和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)實(shi)戰歷練豐富的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)保(bao)(bao)(bao)人(ren)員，可(ke)承擔大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)群(qun)(qun)眾(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)保(bao)(bao)(bao)衛工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)任(ren)(ren)務。同(tong)時(shi)(shi)，安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)防(fang)技術設備已廣泛運用(yong)于大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)群(qun)(qun)眾(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)現(xian)(xian)(xian)場，極大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)地(di)(di)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)了安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)保(bao)(bao)(bao)衛工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)質量和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)效(xiao)果。對(dui)(dui)此，公(gong)(gong)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)關(guan)完(wan)(wan)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)可(ke)以(yi)(yi)依靠社(she)會力量來(lai)保(bao)(bao)(bao)障大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)群(qun)(qun)眾(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)保(bao)(bao)(bao)衛工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)。大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)群(qun)(qun)眾(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)還可(ke)以(yi)(yi)結合(he)活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)規(gui)(gui)格、規(gui)(gui)模、人(ren)數(shu)、場地(di)(di)等(deng)(deng)情況，提(ti)出(chu)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)群(qun)(qun)眾(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)保(bao)(bao)(bao)方(fang)案、安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)檢方(fang)案和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)疏散方(fang)案等(deng)(deng)。并按照評(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)結果制(zhi)定(ding)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)方(fang)案、預案，合(he)理安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)排安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)保(bao)(bao)(bao)力量，實(shi)現(xian)(xian)(xian)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)群(qun)(qun)眾(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)中公(gong)(gong)共安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)管(guan)理的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)科學化(hua)，保(bao)(bao)(bao)證活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)順利進行(xing)(xing)和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)舉(ju)辦(ban)活(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)能(neng)力的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)提(ti)升(sheng)。

3大型群(qun)眾性(xing)活動風險評(ping)估的內容、步驟(zou)和方(fang)法(fa)

3.1風險評(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)主要(yao)內(nei)容①資質評(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)。評(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)對象主要(yao)是主辦方(fang)和(he)場(chang)所(suo)(suo)管理者，要(yao)求其必須具有(you)合(he)法性(xing)，且(qie)應(ying)具備(bei)(bei)一定的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)相關(guan)經驗；②組織管理評(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)。主要(yao)包(bao)括相關(guan)人員的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)崗位分配、應(ying)急預(yu)案(an)和(he)活(huo)(huo)動方(fang)案(an)等(deng)；③安保評(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)。比如(ru)負責(ze)活(huo)(huo)動安保工作的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)團隊(dui)是否專業(ye)可(ke)靠、人數是否足夠等(deng)；④場(chang)所(suo)(suo)評(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)。主要(yao)包(bao)括場(chang)所(suo)(suo)可(ke)以容納的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)人數、場(chang)所(suo)(suo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)周邊(bian)環境、場(chang)所(suo)(suo)設施的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)安全(quan)性(xing)等(deng)；⑤設備(bei)(bei)評(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)。活(huo)(huo)動中(zhong)需要(yao)用到(dao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)各類設備(bei)(bei)，比如(ru)交通(tong)、照明等(deng)；⑥性(xing)質評(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)。主要(yao)包(bao)括活(huo)(huo)動的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)參(can)與人員、組織方(fang)式、時間(jian)、地點和(he)內(nei)容等(deng)；⑦氣候、日期等(deng)風險評(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)。比如(ru)節假日、大(da)雨等(deng)非常規狀況是否有(you)預(yu)案(an)；⑧其他可(ke)能(neng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風險因素評(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)(gu)，如(ru)現場(chang)周邊(bian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)治安、交通(tong)秩序等(deng)。

3.2風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估的(de)步驟(zou)一般安全風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估的(de)程度包括建立評(ping)(ping)(ping)估組織、確定(ding)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估方(fang)法、開展評(ping)(ping)(ping)估分析、作(zuo)出評(ping)(ping)(ping)估結論、提(ti)交(jiao)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估報(bao)告，其具體步驟(zou)是：①將可(ke)(ke)能存在的(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)識別(bie)出來(lai)；②分析這些(xie)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)可(ke)(ke)能造成的(de)損(sun)失(shi)和(he)影響(xiang)；③預測(ce)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)發生的(de)可(ke)(ke)能性；④確定(ding)承受風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)能力；⑤確定(ding)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)消(xiao)減和(he)控制的(de)優(you)先等(deng)級。

3.3風險(xian)評(ping)(ping)估的(de)(de)方法(fa)(fa)一是(shi)矩(ju)陣(zhen)風險(xian)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)法(fa)(fa)。風險(xian)評(ping)(ping)價指數矩(ju)陣(zhen)方法(fa)(fa)是(shi)一個簡單(dan)靈活的(de)(de)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)工具，可以進行(xing)定(ding)(ding)性和定(ding)(ding)量(liang)(liang)(liang)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)，它以風險(xian)的(de)(de)可能性和嚴重性為(wei)依據將風險(xian)進行(xing)分(fen)(fen)類，有利于確定(ding)(ding)處理風險(xian)的(de)(de)先后順(shun)序(xu)，與其他(ta)風險(xian)評(ping)(ping)估方法(fa)(fa)相比，該(gai)方法(fa)(fa)的(de)(de)應用面是(shi)最廣的(de)(de)。二是(shi)定(ding)(ding)量(liang)(liang)(liang)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)法(fa)(fa)。定(ding)(ding)量(liang)(liang)(liang)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)是(shi)試圖從數字上對安全風險(xian)進行(xing)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)評(ping)(ping)估的(de)(de)方法(fa)(fa)，包括因(yin)子(zi)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)法(fa)(fa)、回(hui)歸分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)法(fa)(fa)等(deng)。

理(li)論上(shang)(shang)講，通(tong)過定(ding)(ding)量分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)可(ke)以對安(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)進(jin)行(xing)準確(que)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)分(fen)(fen)級，使分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)結(jie)果易于(yu)理(li)解和(he)(he)(he)(he)比較(jiao)，直(zhi)觀(guan)(guan)可(ke)信(xin)(xin)。但(dan)實際上(shang)(shang)，由(you)于(yu)涉及(ji)公(gong)共安(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)威脅(xie)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)復(fu)雜性(xing)(xing)，很(hen)多(duo)信(xin)(xin)息都(dou)是(shi)(shi)不(bu)精確(que)、不(bu)完整和(he)(he)(he)(he)不(bu)明確(que)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)，再加上(shang)(shang)大(da)(da)型(xing)群眾(zhong)性(xing)(xing)活(huo)動的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)歷史數(shu)據(ju)庫還(huan)未建成(cheng)，因此定(ding)(ding)量分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)有很(hen)大(da)(da)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)困難。三(san)是(shi)(shi)定(ding)(ding)性(xing)(xing)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)法(fa)。定(ding)(ding)性(xing)(xing)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)是(shi)(shi)被廣(guang)泛采用(yong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)方(fang)法(fa)。通(tong)過列出(chu)(chu)各種威脅(xie)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)清單(dan)，并(bing)對威脅(xie)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)嚴重程度及(ji)治安(an)(an)(an)(an)秩序的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)敏感(gan)程度進(jin)行(xing)分(fen)(fen)級，計算簡(jian)單(dan)，評(ping)(ping)估(gu)成(cheng)本低，包括德(de)爾菲(fei)法(fa)、基(ji)線比較(jiao)方(fang)法(fa)等。定(ding)(ding)性(xing)(xing)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)技術包括判斷、直(zhi)覺(jue)和(he)(he)(he)(he)經驗。不(bu)足(zu)之處是(shi)(shi)可(ke)能由(you)于(yu)直(zhi)覺(jue)、經驗的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)偏(pian)差而造(zao)成(cheng)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)結(jie)果過于(yu)主(zhu)觀(guan)(guan)，不(bu)準確(que)。四是(shi)(shi)定(ding)(ding)量和(he)(he)(he)(he)定(ding)(ding)性(xing)(xing)綜合方(fang)法(fa)。定(ding)(ding)量和(he)(he)(he)(he)定(ding)(ding)性(xing)(xing)結(jie)合的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)評(ping)(ping)估(gu)方(fang)法(fa)是(shi)(shi)建立在(zai)定(ding)(ding)性(xing)(xing)方(fang)法(fa)上(shang)(shang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)定(ding)(ding)量評(ping)(ping)估(gu)方(fang)法(fa)，客觀(guan)(guan)準確(que)。“2011浦(pu)江音樂盛典(dian)(dian)”就是(shi)(shi)陜西中城衛集(ji)團公(gong)司運用(yong)大(da)(da)型(xing)群眾(zhong)性(xing)(xing)活(huo)動安(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)評(ping)(ping)估(gu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)內容、步驟和(he)(he)(he)(he)方(fang)法(fa)，成(cheng)功(gong)為音樂會進(jin)行(xing)安(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)評(ping)(ping)估(gu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)典(dian)(dian)型(xing)案例。此次演(yan)出(chu)(chu)場地(di)“世博會展中心”是(shi)(shi)上(shang)(shang)海(hai)世博會后經重裝改(gai)造(zao)后的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)首場演(yan)出(chu)(chu)，無論是(shi)(shi)主(zhu)辦方(fang)、場地(di)方(fang)還(huan)是(shi)(shi)市(shi)(shi)區兩級公(gong)安(an)(an)(an)(an)、消防機關，對這場演(yan)出(chu)(chu)格外重視(shi)(shi)。該集(ji)團公(gong)司作為此場音樂會的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)安(an)(an)(an)(an)保服務(wu)(wu)提供商(shang)，針(zhen)對演(yan)出(chu)(chu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)性(xing)(xing)質、規模、場地(di)、設(she)施、臨(lin)建、演(yan)員(yuan)、觀(guan)(guan)眾(zhong)和(he)(he)(he)(he)安(an)(an)(an)(an)檢、交(jiao)通(tong)、氣候、治安(an)(an)(an)(an)等因素，組(zu)織專家委員(yuan)會成(cheng)員(yuan)對音樂會全(quan)面進(jin)行(xing)了(le)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)評(ping)(ping)估(gu)。針(zhen)對存(cun)在(zai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)點和(he)(he)(he)(he)可(ke)能出(chu)(chu)現(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)出(chu)(chu)據(ju)了(le)《安(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)評(ping)(ping)估(gu)報告》提出(chu)(chu)了(le)整改(gai)意見和(he)(he)(he)(he)規避(bi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)措施。協(xie)助(zhu)主(zhu)辦方(fang)依據(ju)國(guo)務(wu)(wu)院《營(ying)業性(xing)(xing)演(yan)出(chu)(chu)管理(li)條例》、文(wen)化部(bu)《營(ying)業性(xing)(xing)演(yan)出(chu)(chu)管理(li)條例實施細則》的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)規定(ding)(ding)和(he)(he)(he)(he)上(shang)(shang)海(hai)市(shi)(shi)文(wen)化廣(guang)播(bo)影視(shi)(shi)管理(li)局(ju)“關于(yu)加強涉外營(ying)業性(xing)(xing)演(yan)出(chu)(chu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)有關規定(ding)(ding)”，制定(ding)(ding)了(le)詳細周(zhou)密的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)現(xian)(xian)場安(an)(an)(an)(an)保方(fang)案及(ji)各項(xiang)應急(ji)預案，為音樂會的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)成(cheng)功(gong)舉辦提供了(le)全(quan)面的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)安(an)(an)(an)(an)保服務(wu)(wu)，也積累了(le)大(da)(da)量富有成(cheng)效(xiao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)安(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)評(ping)(ping)估(gu)經驗。

篇10

關鍵詞(ci)：城市公共安全;風(feng)險評估(gu);機制(zhi)

中圖分類號(hao)：D630.1 文獻標志碼：A 文章編號(hao)：1002-2589（2015）25-0066-03

城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)是人口(kou)、產(chan)業、資(zi)源經濟最密集(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)場所。改革開放以來，我(wo)國(guo)(guo)城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)化進(jin)程不(bu)斷(duan)(duan)加快(kuai)。城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)化使得城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)中心地(di)位日益突(tu)出，迅(xun)速集(ji)聚的(de)(de)(de)(de)社(she)會(hui)(hui)(hui)生產(chan)要(yao)素給城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)發展帶來活力的(de)(de)(de)(de)同時(shi)，也(ye)使城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)作為(wei)特殊的(de)(de)(de)(de)承災體面臨著越來越多的(de)(de)(de)(de)威脅公(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)安全(quan)(quan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)因(yin)素，其危害程度和范(fan)圍(wei)也(ye)不(bu)斷(duan)(duan)增加。正如德國(guo)(guo)社(she)會(hui)(hui)(hui)學家貝克(ke)所言，現代社(she)會(hui)(hui)(hui)正處于工業社(she)會(hui)(hui)(hui)向風(feng)(feng)險(xian)社(she)會(hui)(hui)(hui)的(de)(de)(de)(de)轉型之中，現代社(she)會(hui)(hui)(hui)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)超過了人們(men)的(de)(de)(de)(de)控制(zhi)能力。1976年的(de)(de)(de)(de)唐山大(da)(da)地(di)震、1998年的(de)(de)(de)(de)特大(da)(da)洪(hong)水災害、2003年的(de)(de)(de)(de)“非典”疫情、2014年的(de)(de)(de)(de)昆明火車站暴力恐怖事件以及(ji)2014年年底的(de)(de)(de)(de)上海外(wai)灘踩(cai)踏事件等(deng)都給我(wo)國(guo)(guo)公(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)安全(quan)(quan)管理提(ti)出了巨大(da)(da)挑戰。城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)脆弱性，風(feng)(feng)險(xian)因(yin)素的(de)(de)(de)(de)復雜性和多樣性決(jue)定(ding)了完善(shan)城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)公(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)安全(quan)(quan)防(fang)御體系勢在必(bi)行。而作為(wei)城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)公(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)安全(quan)(quan)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)管理重(zhong)要(yao)手段的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)評(ping)(ping)估，對于識別城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)存在的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)因(yin)素、評(ping)(ping)估風(feng)(feng)險(xian)等(deng)級、提(ti)出對策、進(jin)行風(feng)(feng)險(xian)控制(zhi)有著十分(fen)重(zhong)要(yao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)意義。

一、城市公共安全及其風險(xian)評(ping)估

公(gong)(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)(gong)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)是(shi)(shi)(shi)指社(she)會公(gong)(gong)(gong)眾(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)(sheng)命(ming)、健(jian)康、重(zhong)(zhong)大公(gong)(gong)(gong)私財產(chan)以及公(gong)(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)(gong)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)、生(sheng)(sheng)活的(de)(de)(de)(de)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)。隨著我國城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)進入(ru)快速發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)時(shi)期，威脅城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)(gong)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)因(yin)(yin)素(su)越(yue)(yue)來越(yue)(yue)多。城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)(gong)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)是(shi)(shi)(shi)指由(you)政(zheng)(zheng)府及社(she)會提(ti)供的(de)(de)(de)(de)預(yu)防(fang)各(ge)(ge)種重(zhong)(zhong)大事(shi)件、事(shi)故和(he)災害(hai)(hai)(hai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，保(bao)護人民(min)(min)生(sheng)(sheng)命(ming)財產(chan)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)、減少社(she)會危害(hai)(hai)(hai)和(he)經濟損失的(de)(de)(de)(de)基礎(chu)保(bao)障[1]。這(zhe)意味(wei)著城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)(gong)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)內(nei)涵包括(kuo)兩個方面(mian)(mian)：一(yi)方面(mian)(mian)，城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)(gong)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)是(shi)(shi)(shi)由(you)政(zheng)(zheng)府提(ti)供的(de)(de)(de)(de)一(yi)項公(gong)(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)(gong)服務，政(zheng)(zheng)府不(bu)僅要建立(li)各(ge)(ge)種突發(fa)(fa)事(shi)件應急預(yu)案和(he)責任制，也要根據城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)(gong)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)特性(xing)制定公(gong)(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)(gong)政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)，維護公(gong)(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)(gong)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan);另(ling)一(yi)方面(mian)(mian)，城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)(gong)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)是(shi)(shi)(shi)民(min)(min)眾(zhong)(zhong)生(sheng)(sheng)命(ming)財產(chan)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)基礎(chu)保(bao)障，它的(de)(de)(de)(de)保(bao)障對象是(shi)(shi)(shi)全(quan)(quan)(quan)體民(min)(min)眾(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)共(gong)(gong)(gong)同利(li)益。城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)建設(she)既(ji)是(shi)(shi)(shi)集(ji)聚(ju)財富的(de)(de)(de)(de)過程(cheng)，也是(shi)(shi)(shi)集(ji)聚(ju)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)過程(cheng)[2]。威脅城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)(gong)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)(yin)素(su)既(ji)有(you)傳統安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)(yin)素(su)也有(you)非傳統安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)(yin)素(su)。傳統安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)(yin)素(su)包括(kuo)自然災害(hai)(hai)(hai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、技術(shu)災害(hai)(hai)(hai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、食品安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)和(he)公(gong)(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)(gong)衛生(sheng)(sheng)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。隨著城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)，除了傳統風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)越(yue)(yue)來越(yue)(yue)多地面(mian)(mian)臨非傳統安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。非傳統安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)(yin)素(su)包括(kuo)金融安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、信息安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、恐怖(bu)襲(xi)擊風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、生(sheng)(sheng)態環境(jing)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)和(he)突發(fa)(fa)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等。為了實現對各(ge)(ge)類(lei)災害(hai)(hai)(hai)事(shi)故的(de)(de)(de)(de)有(you)效(xiao)控(kong)制，保(bao)障城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)居(ju)民(min)(min)的(de)(de)(de)(de)各(ge)(ge)方面(mian)(mian)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)，必須完善(shan)城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)(gong)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)保(bao)障體系，而城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)(gong)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)估尤為重(zhong)(zhong)要，它是(shi)(shi)(shi)實現有(you)效(xiao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管理的(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)(zhong)要手(shou)段，也是(shi)(shi)(shi)保(bao)障城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)可(ke)持續發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)必要條件。城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)(gong)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)估是(shi)(shi)(shi)指對城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)進行(xing)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)析(xi)，通(tong)過風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)辨識(shi)發(fa)(fa)現城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)潛在的(de)(de)(de)(de)危險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)源(yuan)，對城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)危險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)源(yuan)進行(xing)分析(xi)預(yu)測，評(ping)估其發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)可(ke)能性(xing)及后果，從而采取切實可(ke)行(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)措施防(fang)范、降低(di)和(he)消除風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，進行(xing)有(you)效(xiao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管理。在對城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)(gong)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)進行(xing)分析(xi)時(shi)，主要考量(liang)城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)脆弱性(xing)和(he)可(ke)承(cheng)受性(xing)兩個方面(mian)(mian)。

二、現行(xing)城市公共安(an)全(quan)風險評(ping)估機制分析(xi)――基于上海外灘踩踏事件的分析(xi)

（一）上海外灘廣場(chang)踩踏事故回顧

2011年起(qi)，黃浦區(qu)(qu)政府、上海(hai)(hai)(hai)市旅游局和(he)上海(hai)(hai)(hai)廣播電視臺(tai)連續三年在(zai)(zai)(zai)外(wai)灘(tan)(tan)風(feng)景區(qu)(qu)舉(ju)辦新(xin)(xin)年倒(dao)計時(shi)活動。鑒于(yu)在(zai)(zai)(zai)安全等方面存在(zai)(zai)(zai)一定的不可控因素，黃浦區(qu)(qu)政府經(jing)與上海(hai)(hai)(hai)市旅游局、上海(hai)(hai)(hai)廣播電視臺(tai)協商(shang)后。于(yu)2014年11月13日向(xiang)(xiang)市政府請示，新(xin)(xin)年倒(dao)計時(shi)活動暫停在(zai)(zai)(zai)外(wai)灘(tan)(tan)風(feng)景區(qu)(qu)舉(ju)行。2014年12月9日黃浦區(qu)(qu)政府第76次(ci)常務會議決定，2015年新(xin)(xin)年倒(dao)計時(shi)活動在(zai)(zai)(zai)外(wai)灘(tan)(tan)源(yuan)舉(ju)行。事(shi)(shi)發當晚20時(shi)起(qi)，外(wai)灘(tan)(tan)風(feng)景區(qu)(qu)人(ren)員進(jin)多出少，大(da)量(liang)市民(min)游客(ke)(ke)涌向(xiang)(xiang)外(wai)灘(tan)(tan)觀景平臺(tai)，呈現(xian)人(ren)員逐步(bu)聚集(ji)態勢。22時(shi)37分，外(wai)灘(tan)(tan)廣場(chang)東南角(jiao)北側人(ren)行通道(dao)階(jie)梯(ti)處的單(dan)向(xiang)(xiang)通行警戒帶(dai)被沖破以后，現(xian)場(chang)值勤民(min)警竭力維持秩序(xu)，仍(reng)有大(da)量(liang)市民(min)游客(ke)(ke)逆行涌上觀景平臺(tai)。23時(shi)23分至33分，上下(xia)人(ren)流(liu)不斷對沖后在(zai)(zai)(zai)階(jie)梯(ti)中間形(xing)成(cheng)僵持，繼而(er)形(xing)成(cheng)“浪涌”。23時(shi)35分，僵持人(ren)流(liu)向(xiang)(xiang)下(xia)的壓(ya)力陡增，造成(cheng)階(jie)梯(ti)底部有人(ren)失衡(heng)跌(die)倒(dao)，繼而(er)引發多人(ren)摔倒(dao)、疊壓(ya)，致使擁擠踩踏(ta)事(shi)(shi)件發生，事(shi)(shi)件造成(cheng)36人(ren)死(si)亡(wang)49人(ren)受傷[3]。

（二(er)）現行城(cheng)市公共安(an)全風險評(ping)估機制(zhi)

城市(shi)公(gong)共(gong)安(an)全(quan)(quan)風(feng)險評(ping)(ping)估(gu)機制(zhi)(zhi)是指(zhi)(zhi)對城市(shi)公(gong)共(gong)安(an)全(quan)(quan)進(jin)行風(feng)險評(ping)(ping)估(gu)的機構和(he)(he)制(zhi)(zhi)度，包括評(ping)(ping)估(gu)主體、評(ping)(ping)估(gu)內(nei)(nei)容(rong)及指(zhi)(zhi)標體系(xi)、評(ping)(ping)估(gu)方(fang)法、評(ping)(ping)估(gu)程(cheng)序、評(ping)(ping)估(gu)結(jie)果五方(fang)面內(nei)(nei)容(rong)。上(shang)海(hai)在(zai)城市(shi)公(gong)共(gong)安(an)全(quan)(quan)體系(xi)建設方(fang)面起步較早，到目前為止(zhi)已建立起以公(gong)安(an)局和(he)(he)民防局為核心的城市(shi)風(feng)險管理系(xi)統。在(zai)上(shang)海(hai)外(wai)灘(tan)踩踏(ta)事件中，風(feng)險評(ping)(ping)估(gu)機制(zhi)(zhi)的運行如下：

第一，評(ping)估(gu)(gu)主(zhu)(zhu)體。上(shang)海(hai)由市(shi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)安局為(wei)主(zhu)(zhu)的(de)(de)(de)社(she)會(hui)(hui)(hui)安全(quan)(quan)體系全(quan)(quan)面負(fu)責(ze)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)對(dui)和處(chu)置各(ge)類突(tu)發(fa)(fa)性社(she)會(hui)(hui)(hui)安全(quan)(quan)風(feng)險(xian)。2004年(nian)9月30日上(shang)海(hai)啟用市(shi)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)聯動(dong)中(zhong)心(xin)在(zai)突(tu)發(fa)(fa)事(shi)件的(de)(de)(de)先期處(chu)置中(zhong)發(fa)(fa)揮(hui)(hui)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)指(zhi)(zhi)揮(hui)(hui)和快速聯動(dong)的(de)(de)(de)作用。2005年(nian)上(shang)海(hai)成立(li)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)管(guan)理委員(yuan)會(hui)(hui)(hui)，下設應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)管(guan)理委員(yuan)會(hui)(hui)(hui)辦公(gong)(gong)(gong)室。上(shang)海(hai)目前的(de)(de)(de)城市(shi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)共安全(quan)(quan)風(feng)險(xian)評(ping)估(gu)(gu)主(zhu)(zhu)要是以市(shi)委、市(shi)政府為(wei)主(zhu)(zhu)導，在(zai)“以人(ren)為(wei)本、預防(fang)為(wei)主(zhu)(zhu)、統(tong)一領(ling)導、分(fen)級(ji)負(fu)責(ze)”的(de)(de)(de)原則下牽頭(tou)組(zu)織(zhi)各(ge)區(qu)縣縣政府及相關部門(men)開(kai)展(zhan)風(feng)險(xian)評(ping)估(gu)(gu)工作。在(zai)2014年(nian)年(nian)底的(de)(de)(de)上(shang)海(hai)外灘踩(cai)踏事(shi)件中(zhong)，外灘新(xin)年(nian)倒計時(shi)活(huo)動(dong)風(feng)險(xian)評(ping)估(gu)(gu)由黃浦區(qu)旅游局進(jin)行(xing)，而現場風(feng)險(xian)評(ping)估(gu)(gu)工作主(zhu)(zhu)要由黃浦區(qu)公(gong)(gong)(gong)安分(fen)局指(zhi)(zhi)揮(hui)(hui)中(zhong)心(xin)及上(shang)海(hai)市(shi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)安局指(zhi)(zhi)揮(hui)(hui)中(zhong)心(xin)進(jin)行(xing)，通過現場影像數據信息由指(zhi)(zhi)揮(hui)(hui)中(zhong)心(xin)指(zhi)(zhi)揮(hui)(hui)員(yuan)報送黃浦區(qu)公(gong)(gong)(gong)安分(fen)局領(ling)導及市(shi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)安局領(ling)導，從而對(dui)現場公(gong)(gong)(gong)共安全(quan)(quan)風(feng)險(xian)進(jin)行(xing)粗(cu)略評(ping)估(gu)(gu)。

第二，評(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)內(nei)容及(ji)指標體系。城市(shi)(shi)公共(gong)(gong)安(an)全(quan)風險(xian)評(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)是對(dui)城市(shi)(shi)潛在的風險(xian)源的數據信(xin)(xin)息匯總分析，判(pan)斷其性質、危(wei)害程(cheng)度(du)(du)及(ji)影(ying)響(xiang)區域，對(dui)其分級(ji)(ji)分類(lei)，從(cong)而(er)做(zuo)好充分響(xiang)應(ying)準備，以避免事態的擴大(da)(da)(da)和(he)升級(ji)(ji)，減少危(wei)害損(sun)失。上海市(shi)(shi)把危(wei)及(ji)城市(shi)(shi)公共(gong)(gong)安(an)全(quan)的災害事故(gu)分為19類(lei)25種，每種又細分為一(yi)般、重大(da)(da)(da)、特大(da)(da)(da)三個(ge)等(deng)級(ji)(ji)。由市(shi)(shi)公安(an)局(ju)編制的《上海市(shi)(shi)密集人群擁擠事故(gu)應(ying)急(ji)處置預(yu)案(an)》按照人群密集公共(gong)(gong)場所事故(gu)的嚴重程(cheng)度(du)(du)、可(ke)控(kong)性和(he)影(ying)響(xiang)范(fan)圍(wei)，將人群密集公共(gong)(gong)場所事故(gu)分為四(si)級(ji)(ji)：Ⅰ級(ji)(ji)（特別重大(da)(da)(da)）、Ⅱ級(ji)(ji)（重大(da)(da)(da)）、Ⅲ級(ji)(ji)（較大(da)(da)(da)）、Ⅳ級(ji)(ji)（一(yi)般），并(bing)依次用紅色(se)、橙色(se)、黃(huang)色(se)和(he)藍色(se)表示。在踩踏(ta)事件中(zhong)，應(ying)急(ji)指揮中(zhong)心及(ji)公安(an)局(ju)主要是對(dui)外灘(tan)廣(guang)場的人流(liu)量(liang)進行(xing)評(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)，由于(yu)并(bing)未制定(ding)外灘(tan)活動應(ying)急(ji)預(yu)案(an)，對(dui)于(yu)外灘(tan)公共(gong)(gong)安(an)全(quan)的風險(xian)評(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)主要依賴于(yu)現場觀測數據信(xin)(xin)息，并(bing)根據人流(liu)量(liang)密度(du)(du)評(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)現場安(an)全(quan)風險(xian)，判(pan)斷是否需要加派警力引導人群疏散。

第三，評(ping)估(gu)程(cheng)序。城市公共安全(quan)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)估(gu)的主要程(cheng)序是風(feng)險(xian)(xian)源識別(bie)、風(feng)險(xian)(xian)分(fen)析和(he)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)估(gu)。事態(tai)出(chu)現惡化端(duan)(duan)倪時，報(bao)警信(xin)息(xi)迅(xun)速匯(hui)集到指(zhi)揮(hui)(hui)(hui)中心(xin)，傳(chuan)送至(zhi)各區(qu)域指(zhi)揮(hui)(hui)(hui)中心(xin)，并(bing)及時向上(shang)(shang)級指(zhi)揮(hui)(hui)(hui)中心(xin)和(he)行(xing)政(zheng)領導(dao)報(bao)送進行(xing)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)估(gu)。黃浦區(qu)指(zhi)揮(hui)(hui)(hui)中心(xin)根(gen)據(ju)視(shi)頻攝像頭(tou)、數據(ju)采集終端(duan)(duan)以(yi)及語(yu)言通信(xin)終端(duan)(duan)等獲得信(xin)息(xi)并(bing)上(shang)(shang)報(bao)現場數據(ju)信(xin)息(xi)，黃浦區(qu)公安分(fen)局(ju)及上(shang)(shang)海市公安局(ju)根(gen)據(ju)上(shang)(shang)報(bao)信(xin)息(xi)進行(xing)緊急分(fen)析評(ping)估(gu)，提醒做好響應準備。

（三(san)）風險評估機制存在的問題分析

第一(yi)，職能不(bu)清與評(ping)(ping)(ping)估主體不(bu)明確。任何群眾活動(dong)之(zhi)(zhi)前，都必須要(yao)做足風(feng)(feng)(feng)險評(ping)(ping)(ping)估，相(xiang)關的(de)各(ge)委辦局、各(ge)屬地部(bu)門(men)(men)、各(ge)企(qi)事業單位都要(yao)各(ge)司其(qi)職，承擔(dan)相(xiang)應(ying)的(de)任務和(he)責(ze)任。上海(hai)于2004年和(he)2005年分別成(cheng)(cheng)立應(ying)急聯動(dong)指揮中(zhong)心和(he)應(ying)急管理委員會，應(ying)是(shi)對活動(dong)進行風(feng)(feng)(feng)險評(ping)(ping)(ping)估的(de)參與者之(zhi)(zhi)一(yi)，但在(zai)外(wai)灘新(xin)年倒計(ji)時(shi)活動(dong)中(zhong)，卻(que)并(bing)沒(mei)有(you)發揮應(ying)有(you)的(de)作用(yong)。事件中(zhong)的(de)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估工(gong)作主要(yao)由(you)公安行政領(ling)導個人評(ping)(ping)(ping)估，缺乏(fa)相(xiang)關部(bu)門(men)(men)和(he)專業隊伍的(de)參與，相(xiang)關部(bu)門(men)(men)甚至(zhi)沒(mei)有(you)發揮作用(yong)，部(bu)門(men)(men)之(zhi)(zhi)間職責(ze)不(bu)清，僅(jin)靠公安部(bu)門(men)(men)進行風(feng)(feng)(feng)險防控工(gong)作。現有(you)的(de)法制沒(mei)有(you)明確風(feng)(feng)(feng)險評(ping)(ping)(ping)估主體，形(xing)成(cheng)(cheng)由(you)“條線部(bu)門(men)(men)”主導的(de)各(ge)自為政的(de)評(ping)(ping)(ping)估機制。

第二，評(ping)估技術落(luo)后與方法(fa)不(bu)科(ke)(ke)(ke)學(xue)(xue)。國內(nei)(nei)外(wai)對于(yu)(yu)風(feng)險(xian)評(ping)估的(de)(de)方法(fa)很多，當(dang)(dang)前常用的(de)(de)是突(tu)變級數法(fa)，但當(dang)(dang)前評(ping)估主體并(bing)不(bu)具(ju)備專業(ye)知識水平。目(mu)前，國內(nei)(nei)外(wai)對人(ren)員擁擠的(de)(de)判別沒有一個統一的(de)(de)標準，只限于(yu)(yu)特征的(de)(de)描(miao)述[4]。有規定(ding)指出景(jing)區(qu)(qu)、景(jing)點室內(nei)(nei)達到1m2/人(ren)、室外(wai)達到0.75m2/人(ren)，即要(yao)啟動應急(ji)預案[5]。對于(yu)(yu)上海(hai)這樣的(de)(de)特大(da)型城市(shi)，人(ren)員擁擠需要(yao)科(ke)(ke)(ke)學(xue)(xue)考察(cha)單位時間內(nei)(nei)和(he)單位地(di)點內(nei)(nei)人(ren)員的(de)(de)流動情況，而不(bu)是僅憑對人(ren)流的(de)(de)大(da)致主觀推測(ce)來進行評(ping)估。據市(shi)民回憶(yi)，事發當(dang)(dang)晚(wan)，外(wai)灘人(ren)流密(mi)度高達6人(ren)/m2，但這一數據并(bing)沒有得到指揮(hui)中心的(de)(de)準確(que)監(jian)測(ce)。事發前，黃浦區(qu)(qu)政(zheng)府(fu)及相關部門(men)也并(bing)未進行全(quan)面(mian)、系統、科(ke)(ke)(ke)學(xue)(xue)的(de)(de)風(feng)險(xian)評(ping)估。應對事件(jian)的(de)(de)直接做法(fa)就是部署警力(li)，卻并(bing)沒有采用科(ke)(ke)(ke)學(xue)(xue)評(ping)估的(de)(de)手段。

第三，風(feng)(feng)險(xian)意識(shi)(shi)薄弱(ruo)與知(zhi)識(shi)(shi)不足。2014年12月9日(ri)黃(huang)浦區(qu)政(zheng)府第76次常務會議(yi)明確指出區(qu)公安分局與市政(zheng)委等部門做好活動(dong)預案。作為活動(dong)承(cheng)辦(ban)單位，黃(huang)浦區(qu)旅(lv)游局對(dui)(dui)(dui)轄(xia)區(qu)內(nei)重點區(qu)域風(feng)(feng)險(xian)評(ping)(ping)估不足，而(er)黃(huang)浦區(qu)政(zheng)府嚴重缺(que)乏公共(gong)安全風(feng)(feng)險(xian)防范意識(shi)(shi)，未檢查監督會議(yi)具體要(yao)求(qiu)的(de)貫徹落實，也未對(dui)(dui)(dui)可(ke)能存(cun)在的(de)大(da)(da)量(liang)人(ren)群(qun)(qun)聚集做安全風(feng)(feng)險(xian)評(ping)(ping)估，沒有對(dui)(dui)(dui)活動(dong)可(ke)能出現的(de)安全風(feng)(feng)險(xian)予以高度重視，缺(que)乏應(ying)(ying)有認知(zhi)。在事件處理(li)過(guo)程中，政(zheng)府及公安局等領導未能及時正確評(ping)(ping)估人(ren)群(qun)(qun)集聚的(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)，知(zhi)識(shi)(shi)不足正是(shi)一大(da)(da)原因(yin)，由于知(zhi)識(shi)(shi)結構的(de)欠缺(que)，無法進行(xing)專業評(ping)(ping)估，導致(zhi)判斷失(shi)誤(wu)，應(ying)(ying)對(dui)(dui)(dui)嚴重缺(que)失(shi)。另一方面(mian)，現有預案及研(yan)究成果(guo)也存(cun)在實踐操(cao)作性弱(ruo)的(de)問題。

第四(si)，條塊(kuai)(kuai)分割(ge)與部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)門(men)(men)協同(tong)不夠。交(jiao)通(tong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)門(men)(men)和(he)交(jiao)通(tong)管理部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)門(men)(men)是人群集散(san)、空間移動、流(liu)量(liang)管控的關(guan)(guan)鍵部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)門(men)(men)。對于(yu)外灘新(xin)年(nian)活(huo)動，地鐵、公交(jiao)、車輛(liang)的交(jiao)通(tong)管控都(dou)應做好規劃評估，這不僅僅是公安局和(he)指(zhi)揮中心的任務(wu)。而對人流(liu)的趨向和(he)流(liu)動狀(zhuang)況，通(tong)信(xin)技術部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)門(men)(men)也必須及(ji)時將數據信(xin)息報(bao)送上級(ji)相(xiang)(xiang)關(guan)(guan)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)門(men)(men)。在這個過程中，部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)分部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)門(men)(men)已經(jing)完成相(xiang)(xiang)關(guan)(guan)工(gong)作，而踩踏事件依然發生，這是因為(wei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)門(men)(men)條塊(kuai)(kuai)分割(ge)，協同(tong)性(xing)不夠。

三、城市(shi)公(gong)共安全(quan)風險(xian)評(ping)估機制的構建(jian)與完善

（一）完善并嚴格(ge)執(zhi)行各項規程，規范評估程序

完(wan)善風險(xian)評(ping)估(gu)法(fa)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)建設，依(yi)據國(guo)家公(gong)共(gong)安(an)全法(fa)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)的要(yao)求，結(jie)合地方(fang)特色，針對風險(xian)源的特點，構建完(wan)整(zheng)的城市(shi)公(gong)共(gong)安(an)全評(ping)估(gu)法(fa)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)體系(xi)。對評(ping)估(gu)程序、運作體制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)、評(ping)估(gu)權限等(deng)都應有明確和詳細的規(gui)定。分(fen)解城市(shi)公(gong)共(gong)安(an)全風險(xian)評(ping)估(gu)任(ren)務，強化(hua)任(ren)務落實，推動(dong)風險(xian)評(ping)估(gu)體系(xi)建設。編制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)城市(shi)公(gong)共(gong)安(an)全風險(xian)評(ping)估(gu)白皮書，強化(hua)評(ping)估(gu)科學性，細化(hua)各項評(ping)估(gu)流程，規(gui)范評(ping)估(gu)程序。同時，要(yao)強化(hua)執行監督(du)，將風險(xian)評(ping)估(gu)工作寓于日常監管工作中，落實風險(xian)防控措施。

（二）加強風險評估(gu)技術支撐，更新(xin)評估(gu)方(fang)法

完(wan)善綜(zong)合(he)管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)信息系統(tong)，形成覆蓋全(quan)市(shi)的(de)(de)信息管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)技術平(ping)臺。建(jian)立(li)(li)(li)起公(gong)共安全(quan)風(feng)險數據(ju)庫及案例(li)庫，將歷史數據(ju)進行結構化處(chu)理(li)(li)(li)。在(zai)遇到問題時在(zai)案例(li)庫中檢(jian)索(suo)過去類似案例(li)，對現有風(feng)險因素進行更為準(zhun)確(que)(que)的(de)(de)評估(gu)(gu)(gu)。另一(yi)方面，在(zai)監(jian)測方面，加強監(jian)控技術支(zhi)撐，綜(zong)合(he)利用(yong)計(ji)算(suan)機網絡(luo)(luo)、通信網絡(luo)(luo)和數字監(jian)控等先進技術，建(jian)立(li)(li)(li)起基于(yu)GIS（地理(li)(li)(li)信息系統(tong)）的(de)(de)多功能公(gong)共安全(quan)風(feng)險評估(gu)(gu)(gu)技術平(ping)臺，實現更為準(zhun)確(que)(que)的(de)(de)風(feng)險信息獲取(qu)，并在(zai)全(quan)市(shi)重要場所(suo)設(she)(she)立(li)(li)(li)顯示屏、戶外(wai)廣播等安全(quan)提示設(she)(she)施。在(zai)評估(gu)(gu)(gu)方法(fa)上(shang)，引入專業團隊，與國(guo)外(wai)先進評估(gu)(gu)(gu)方法(fa)接軌，采用(yong)專業數據(ju)統(tong)計(ji)和理(li)(li)(li)論方法(fa)，建(jian)立(li)(li)(li)完(wan)善的(de)(de)城市(shi)公(gong)共安全(quan)風(feng)險評估(gu)(gu)(gu)指(zhi)標體系，建(jian)立(li)(li)(li)風(feng)險評估(gu)(gu)(gu)模型(xing)。

（三）建(jian)立公(gong)共安全專家評估系統，強化(hua)教育培訓

多(duo)元化評(ping)(ping)估不僅是科學評(ping)(ping)估的(de)需要(yao)(yao)，也是民主(zhu)建(jian)設的(de)內在要(yao)(yao)求。事件(jian)發生(sheng)時(shi)，往往需要(yao)(yao)決策者(zhe)在短時(shi)間(jian)內完(wan)成信息評(ping)(ping)估并迅速做出判斷(duan)決策，這對決策者(zhe)的(de)素質(zhi)和能力要(yao)(yao)求特別高，而(er)現有決策者(zhe)并不具備這樣(yang)的(de)能力。學者(zhe)戚建(jian)剛認為，應當(dang)以現有的(de)應急工作(zuo)辦事機構為基礎，通(tong)過增強職(zhi)權職(zhi)責、配備專家精英、更新軟硬件(jian)設施等方面(mian)的(de)改革，提高其獨立性(xing)、權威性(xing)、專業性(xing)和精確(que)性(xing)，從(cong)而(er)集中、統一、權威、精確(que)、高效地(di)防范和應對社會風險(xian)[6]。而(er)對于決策者(zhe)，應當(dang)加(jia)強風險(xian)評(ping)(ping)估教育(yu)培訓，提高管理(li)者(zhe)的(de)風險(xian)意識(shi)和風險(xian)評(ping)(ping)估能力是預防工作(zuo)得以貫徹(che)的(de)根本保(bao)障。

（四(si)）條(tiao)塊結合(he)，推動風險(xian)評估的協同合(he)作

制定符(fu)合(he)(he)實際(ji)的(de)(de)工(gong)作(zuo)運行(xing)(xing)流程(cheng)，建(jian)立組織(zhi)、部門之間的(de)(de)協(xie)(xie)同(tong)配合(he)(he)機制，保證(zheng)信息溝通(tong)的(de)(de)快速與(yu)通(tong)暢(chang)。協(xie)(xie)作(zuo)問(wen)題(ti)主要(yao)來自組織(zhi)結(jie)構因(yin)素和現有行(xing)(xing)政體制因(yin)素，組織(zhi)結(jie)構因(yin)素包括結(jie)構的(de)(de)靜態(tai)涉(she)及(ji)和組織(zhi)運行(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)動態(tai)過(guo)程(cheng)。因(yin)此對于(yu)橫向聯系(xi)的(de)(de)組織(zhi)設(she)計應(ying)當以橫向協(xie)(xie)調與(yu)橫向制約的(de)(de)方式設(she)計，實行(xing)(xing)層層協(xie)(xie)調，采用標(biao)準(zhun)化的(de)(de)協(xie)(xie)調方式。出臺(tai)有關職責分工(gong)的(de)(de)基(ji)本制度(du)，建(jian)立協(xie)(xie)調監督制度(du)，設(she)立協(xie)(xie)調類(lei)工(gong)作(zuo)的(de)(de)量化指標(biao)體系(xi)，納(na)入部門和個人的(de)(de)工(gong)作(zuo)考核。

四、結語

城(cheng)市公(gong)共(gong)安(an)全風險(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)體系是(shi)一個龐(pang)大的(de)(de)(de)、開放的(de)(de)(de)和模(mo)塊化的(de)(de)(de)系統，比一般的(de)(de)(de)組織結構(gou)都要復雜。風險(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)估(gu)是(shi)做好(hao)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)的(de)(de)(de)前(qian)提和保證，為了保證城(cheng)市公(gong)共(gong)安(an)全風險(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)體系的(de)(de)(de)有(you)效(xiao)運(yun)轉，必須建立(li)高效(xiao)、靈活的(de)(de)(de)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)估(gu)運(yun)行機制。我國目前(qian)公(gong)共(gong)安(an)全保障基(ji)礎尚且較(jiao)為薄(bo)弱。本文(wen)通過結合上(shang)海外灘踩踏事故(gu)的(de)(de)(de)案例(li)對其風險(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)估(gu)機制運(yun)行進(jin)行分(fen)析(xi)，從(cong)評(ping)估(gu)主體、評(ping)估(gu)程序、評(ping)估(gu)方(fang)(fang)法(fa)等方(fang)(fang)面分(fen)析(xi)其中顯(xian)現的(de)(de)(de)問題，進(jin)而探討城(cheng)市公(gong)共(gong)安(an)全風險(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)估(gu)機制的(de)(de)(de)構(gou)建和完善，為風險(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)估(gu)的(de)(de)(de)模(mo)型建構(gou)、科學分(fen)析(xi)和實踐(jian)操作提供研究(jiu)參考(kao)。

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Construction of Mechanism of Risk Assessment on Urban Public Safety

――Based on the analysis of the stampede at Shanghai’s Bund area

ZHENG Qianqian

（East China university of political science and law， Shanghai 201600， China）