導(dao)語：如何(he)才能寫好一(yi)篇風險分(fen)析與應對策略，這就需要搜集整理(li)更(geng)多的資(zi)料和文獻，歡迎閱讀(du)由公(gong)務員之家整理(li)的十篇范文，供你借鑒。

篇1

關鍵詞：支付寶；Apple Pay；風險分析；應對策略

中圖(tu)分類號： TP393.0；F832.21 文獻標識碼： A 文章編號： 1673-1069（2017）06-51-2

1 支付寶(bao)風險分(fen)析

截至2015年第三(san)季度，中(zhong)國第三(san)方移動(dong)支(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)交易規(gui)模市(shi)場份額(e)組成如下：支(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)寶(bao)69.9%，財(cai)付(fu)通19.2%，拉卡拉2.2%，聯(lian)動(dong)優(you)勢1.4%。在支(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)寶(bao)迅猛發展的同時(shi)，暴露了支(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)寶(bao)的許多問題，其風險(xian)問題尤為(wei)受公眾關注。

1.1 個(ge)人信(xin)息泄露(lu)風險

個(ge)人(ren)信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)泄(xie)露(lu)(lu)是(shi)(shi)廣大用(yong)(yong)(yong)戶(hu)非常關注的(de)(de)風險問題，那么個(ge)人(ren)信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)是(shi)(shi)怎樣通(tong)過(guo)支(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)寶(bao)泄(xie)露(lu)(lu)的(de)(de)呢？其一是(shi)(shi)當用(yong)(yong)(yong)戶(hu)淘寶(bao)購(gou)物(wu)支(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)時(shi)，用(yong)(yong)(yong)戶(hu)的(de)(de)姓名(ming)、聯系方(fang)式、住址、以(yi)及(ji)購(gou)物(wu)信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)將(jiang)記錄在手(shou)機的(de)(de)存儲卡(ka)上(shang)，不法分子會(hui)通(tong)過(guo)木馬病毒侵入(ru)到手(shou)機內部，從而獲得存儲卡(ka)上(shang)的(de)(de)信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)，導致(zhi)個(ge)人(ren)信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)的(de)(de)泄(xie)露(lu)(lu)。這(zhe)一泄(xie)露(lu)(lu)是(shi)(shi)由(you)(you)于支(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)寶(bao)的(de)(de)技(ji)術(shu)存在漏洞使得不法分子有機可乘。其二是(shi)(shi)當用(yong)(yong)(yong)戶(hu)通(tong)過(guo)淘寶(bao)購(gou)物(wu)用(yong)(yong)(yong)支(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)寶(bao)支(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)時(shi)，會(hui)將(jiang)個(ge)人(ren)的(de)(de)信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)傳遞給(gei)商家(jia)，而一些(xie)商家(jia)在獲取(qu)了用(yong)(yong)(yong)戶(hu)的(de)(de)個(ge)人(ren)信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)后會(hui)在網上(shang)散(san)步或者(zhe)賣給(gei)他人(ren)以(yi)獲得利(li)益，這(zhe)一信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)泄(xie)露(lu)(lu)是(shi)(shi)由(you)(you)于商家(jia)的(de)(de)信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)用(yong)(yong)(yong)不良導致(zhi)的(de)(de)。

1.2 資金(jin)被(bei)盜風(feng)險

許多支(zhi)付寶(bao)(bao)用戶認(ren)為資(zi)金被(bei)盜(dao)是支(zhi)付寶(bao)(bao)技術不過(guo)關(guan)(guan)造成的(de)，其實不然，不法分子大都是利用消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)者(zhe)對于自(zi)身(shen)安全(quan)信息保護意(yi)識薄弱來(lai)進行的(de)，他們可(ke)能通(tong)過(guo)給消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)者(zhe)發送相(xiang)關(guan)(guan)的(de)活動鏈(lian)接，誘使消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)者(zhe)進入(ru)(ru)從(cong)而(er)使得(de)各種木馬病毒趁機侵入(ru)(ru)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)者(zhe)的(de)客戶端盜(dao)取相(xiang)關(guan)(guan)的(de)信息，從(cong)而(er)實現資(zi)金盜(dao)取。

基于電(dian)子商(shang)務的(de)(de)(de)虛擬性，第三(san)方機構有責(ze)(ze)任制定(ding)相(xiang)關(guan)(guan)的(de)(de)(de)政策來(lai)配(pei)合(he)相(xiang)關(guan)(guan)法(fa)律法(fa)規(gui)對詐騙行為的(de)(de)(de)認定(ding)和(he)處罰的(de)(de)(de)實施，保(bao)證用(yong)戶資金(jin)的(de)(de)(de)安全。用(yong)戶因為使用(yong)支(zhi)付(fu)寶(bao)從(cong)而(er)導致自己賬戶資金(jin)被竊(qie)取(qu)，支(zhi)付(fu)寶(bao)依(yi)然(ran)有不(bu)可推卸的(de)(de)(de)責(ze)(ze)任，支(zhi)付(fu)寶(bao)系統的(de)(de)(de)設計目前首要解決(jue)的(de)(de)(de)是(shi)(shi)在用(yong)戶點開了詐騙鏈接(jie)后不(bu)法(fa)分子還依(yi)舊不(bu)能獲取(qu)用(yong)戶的(de)(de)(de)個人(ren)信(xin)息從(cong)而(er)進行資金(jin)的(de)(de)(de)竊(qie)取(qu)，這一技(ji)術(shu)是(shi)(shi)目前支(zhi)付(fu)寶(bao)開發商(shang)首要解決(jue)的(de)(de)(de)問(wen)題(ti)，也是(shi)(shi)長久以來(lai)用(yong)戶最關(guan)(guan)注的(de)(de)(de)焦點。

1.3 資金沉淀風險(xian)

支(zhi)付(fu)寶(bao)資(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)沉(chen)淀(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)有(you)兩方面的來源，一是(shi)在(zai)途資(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)的沉(chen)淀(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，支(zhi)付(fu)寶(bao)作為信用(yong)中介進行(xing)資(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)沉(chen)淀(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，買(mai)家(jia)選(xuan)購商品后先將(jiang)款(kuan)項轉(zhuan)(zhuan)入(ru)支(zhi)付(fu)寶(bao)賬戶(hu)(hu)內，同時支(zhi)付(fu)寶(bao)通知賣家(jia)發(fa)貨，待買(mai)家(jia)確認付(fu)款(kuan)時再將(jiang)款(kuan)項轉(zhuan)(zhuan)入(ru)賣家(jia)賬戶(hu)(hu)，這(zhe)(zhe)個(ge)過程中支(zhi)付(fu)寶(bao)充(chong)當了信用(yong)中介的角色(se)。這(zhe)(zhe)一部(bu)分(fen)(fen)沉(chen)淀(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的資(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)，支(zhi)付(fu)寶(bao)可(ke)能挪作他用(yong)，很(hen)難(nan)確保這(zhe)(zhe)部(bu)分(fen)(fen)資(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)的安(an)全。二是(shi)用(yong)戶(hu)(hu)在(zai)支(zhi)付(fu)寶(bao)內設有(you)個(ge)人賬戶(hu)(hu)，這(zhe)(zhe)個(ge)賬戶(hu)(hu)就相(xiang)當于在(zai)銀行(xing)的活(huo)期存款(kuan)賬戶(hu)(hu)，用(yong)戶(hu)(hu)可(ke)以隨時存取(qu)，而當用(yong)戶(hu)(hu)不用(yong)于交易和轉(zhuan)(zhuan)賬時，這(zhe)(zhe)個(ge)賬戶(hu)(hu)內的資(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)就會沉(chen)淀(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)下來，而沉(chen)淀(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)下來的資(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)可(ke)能被支(zhi)付(fu)寶(bao)挪用(yong)，并且這(zhe)(zhe)一來源的資(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)沉(chen)淀(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)會有(you)進一步擴大的趨勢。

支付寶2016年(nian)9月12日宣布公告稱從2016年(nian)10月12日起，支付寶將(jiang)(jiang)對個(ge)人(ren)用(yong)戶(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)超出(chu)免(mian)費額(e)度（累計兩萬元）的(de)提(ti)(ti)現(xian)收0.1%的(de)服務費，這(zhe)一(yi)公告的(de)出(chu)臺，必(bi)然會導致(zhi)諸多用(yong)戶(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)不(bu)愿意(yi)將(jiang)(jiang)個(ge)人(ren)賬(zhang)戶(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)內的(de)資(zi)(zi)(zi)金提(ti)(ti)現(xian)，尤其是那些已超過(guo)免(mian)費提(ti)(ti)現(xian)額(e)度的(de)用(yong)戶(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)，他們寧愿將(jiang)(jiang)資(zi)(zi)(zi)金放在個(ge)人(ren)賬(zhang)戶(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)內也不(bu)愿意(yi)提(ti)(ti)現(xian)，這(zhe)樣個(ge)人(ren)賬(zhang)戶(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)的(de)資(zi)(zi)(zi)金就(jiu)會越(yue)(yue)積越(yue)(yue)多，其就(jiu)像一(yi)個(ge)資(zi)(zi)(zi)金池，只有(you)不(bu)斷向里輸入資(zi)(zi)(zi)金，而很少向外取出(chu)資(zi)(zi)(zi)金，這(zhe)一(yi)塊的(de)資(zi)(zi)(zi)金沉淀越(yue)(yue)級越(yue)(yue)大，進一(yi)步(bu)加×俗式鴣戀(lian)淼姆(mu)縵鍘(zha)

1.4 合規風險

2010年出臺的《非金(jin)融(rong)機(ji)構(gou)支付(fu)服務(wu)管(guan)理辦法》對我(wo)國(guo)第三方(fang)支付(fu)機(ji)構(gou)性(xing)質的界定有了權威的依據，即在我(wo)國(guo)第三方(fang)支付(fu)機(ji)構(gou)為非金(jin)融(rong)機(ji)構(gou)，其(qi)管(guan)理運作(zuo)正式納入到(dao)中國(guo)人(ren)民銀行的監(jian)管(guan)范(fan)圍內。

2013年6月，支(zhi)付寶(bao)(bao)首次(ci)推出了(le)互(hu)聯網理(li)財(cai)產品(pin)――余(yu)(yu)額(e)寶(bao)(bao)，其功能就(jiu)相當于在(zai)銀行(xing)的(de)活期存(cun)(cun)款(kuan)，只要在(zai)余(yu)(yu)額(e)寶(bao)(bao)內存(cun)(cun)放(fang)資金(jin)(jin)(jin)，它就(jiu)會(hui)每(mei)天計算利息給(gei)你，因此短時間內便(bian)打開了(le)理(li)財(cai)市場，由于眾多用戶會(hui)將存(cun)(cun)放(fang)在(zai)商業(ye)銀行(xing)活期存(cun)(cun)款(kuan)紛紛取(qu)出，放(fang)到余(yu)(yu)額(e)寶(bao)(bao)內，對銀行(xing)的(de)活期儲(chu)蓄會(hui)造(zao)成不小的(de)沖擊。我國只授(shou)予商業(ye)銀行(xing)辦(ban)理(li)存(cun)(cun)款(kuan)業(ye)務(wu)，其他的(de)金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)機構(gou)以及非(fei)金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)機構(gou)均無權辦(ban)理(li)存(cun)(cun)款(kuan)業(ye)務(wu)。余(yu)(yu)額(e)寶(bao)(bao)的(de)性質(zhi)就(jiu)相當于存(cun)(cun)款(kuan)業(ye)務(wu)，但其并沒有(you)獲得存(cun)(cun)款(kuan)業(ye)務(wu)的(de)許可，用戶將錢存(cun)(cun)放(fang)到余(yu)(yu)額(e)寶(bao)(bao)內很難確保資金(jin)(jin)(jin)的(de)安全，而支(zhi)付寶(bao)(bao)用這(zhe)些籌集到的(de)資金(jin)(jin)(jin)用做什么用途，我們(men)也毫不知(zhi)情(qing)。因此為了(le)防范支(zhi)付寶(bao)(bao)利用余(yu)(yu)額(e)寶(bao)(bao)非(fei)法集資的(de)風險(xian)，人(ren)民(min)銀行(xing)對這(zhe)種金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)創新進(jin)行(xing)了(le)控制，也使(shi)人(ren)民(min)銀行(xing)加強支(zhi)付寶(bao)(bao)監管(guan)，保證(zheng)其合(he)規(gui)運行(xing)的(de)重(zhong)要舉措(cuo)。

2 Apple Pay風險(xian)分析

Apple Pay采(cai)用(yong)NFC近(jin)場通信技術，消(xiao)費者只要將手機靠近(jin)標識有(you)“閃付(fu)”或(huo)“云閃付(fu)銀聯”POS機，就可以實現指紋刷(shua)卡，過程中無(wu)須輸入與綁(bang)定銀行的任(ren)何信息，過程僅需要一兩秒。除(chu)了(le)在用(yong)戶體驗(yan)度上(shang)(shang)，Apple Pay有(you)所改進，更重(zhong)要的是(shi)Apple Pay注重(zhong)保證(zheng)交易的私密性及安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)性，為蘋果(guo)公司在iPhone的安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)芯(xin)片中承載兩類java卡應用(yong)程序。Apple Pay雖在支付(fu)寶的用(yong)戶體驗(yan)度及安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)性上(shang)(shang)有(you)所改進，但(dan)其(qi)自身依(yi)舊存在險(xian)，這是(shi)需要我們探討的。

篇2

摘(zhai) 要 本文采用(yong)文獻(xian)資料查詢、專(zhuan)家訪談、歸納總結等方(fang)法，在(zai)對西安(an)(an)市(shi)學(xue)校體育教(jiao)學(xue)過程中可能(neng)出現的安(an)(an)全風(feng)險識(shi)別評(ping)估(gu)的基礎上，構建出體育教(jiao)學(xue)課(ke)堂安(an)(an)全風(feng)險的規避策(ce)略以及相(xiang)應應對策(ce)略，以期為體育教(jiao)學(xue)的順(shun)利(li)開(kai)展和體育教(jiao)師在(zai)體育課(ke)堂上的傷(shang)害事故(gu)的風(feng)險防范提供理論支撐。

關(guan)鍵詞 學校體育(yu) 風(feng)險規(gui)避 風(feng)險應對

風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)應對是指管(guan)理部門、人員(yuan)和活動組織者從改變(bian)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)因素的(de)性(xing)質(zhi)、風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)發(fa)生(sheng)的(de)可能性(xing)和風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)造成的(de)結果以及其嚴重(zhong)程度(du)等入手，采取相應風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)處理策略，風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)應對是風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)理中(zhong)最重(zhong)要的(de)一個環(huan)節[1]。

一、中小學(xue)校體育運動(dong)風險(xian)規避

在體(ti)(ti)育(yu)(yu)教(jiao)學(xue)過程(cheng)中(zhong)，體(ti)(ti)育(yu)(yu)運動(dong)(dong)傷害事(shi)故不可(ke)避免(mian)，但我們也(ye)不能(neng)談風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)而色變，更不能(neng)因(yin)為風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)存(cun)在而取消體(ti)(ti)育(yu)(yu)教(jiao)學(xue)、運動(dong)(dong)訓練，當然更不能(neng)禁止(zhi)學(xue)生進行課外體(ti)(ti)育(yu)(yu)活動(dong)(dong)。而針對(dui)(dui)體(ti)(ti)育(yu)(yu)教(jiao)學(xue)中(zhong)存(cun)在的(de)(de)運動(dong)(dong)傷害，我們應(ying)該以一種客觀(guan)、科(ke)(ke)學(xue)的(de)(de)態度去(qu)面對(dui)(dui)，在對(dui)(dui)體(ti)(ti)育(yu)(yu)運動(dong)(dong)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)進行識別評(ping)估的(de)(de)基礎上，對(dui)(dui)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)進行科(ke)(ke)學(xue)化控制，采取一些有效的(de)(de)方法對(dui)(dui)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)進行規(gui)(gui)避是完全可(ke)行的(de)(de)。目(mu)前(qian)，學(xue)校體(ti)(ti)育(yu)(yu)傷害事(shi)故的(de)(de)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)規(gui)(gui)避策略有：風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)回避、風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)降低(di)、風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)轉(zhuan)移、風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)自留等(deng)[2]。

（一）西(xi)安中小學體(ti)育傷(shang)害事故風險回避策略(lve)

風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)回(hui)避策(ce)(ce)略是指在(zai)(zai)學校體育風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)事故識別評估的基礎(chu)上，預測體育安全風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)發(fa)生(sheng)的可能(neng)性以及嚴(yan)重性，若發(fa)生(sheng)的可能(neng)性及嚴(yan)重性很大，則放棄實施可能(neng)導致風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)發(fa)生(sheng)的教學設計方案。通過回(hui)避風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)策(ce)(ce)略，可以在(zai)(zai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)事件發(fa)生(sheng)之(zhi)前完全消(xiao)除特定風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)可能(neng)造成的損失[3]。

然(ran)而，采取風(feng)險回避(bi)的(de)策略去預防運動(dong)傷(shang)(shang)害所(suo)帶(dai)來的(de)損(sun)失(shi)也存在(zai)局(ju)限性，風(feng)險回避(bi)，也就意(yi)味(wei)著運動(dong)傷(shang)(shang)害事故發生的(de)可能性為零。其次，有(you)些風(feng)險是無可避(bi)免(mian)的(de)，如海(hai)嘯、暴雨(yu)、地震等自然(ran)災害所(suo)造成(cheng)的(de)運動(dong)傷(shang)(shang)害事故。

（二(er)）西(xi)安中小學(xue)體育(yu)傷害事故(gu)風險降低(di)策略(lve)

風險(xian)降低(di)策略是指通(tong)過對(dui)體(ti)育(yu)傷害事故的(de)識別(bie)和(he)評估，降低(di)體(ti)育(yu)傷害事故發生(sheng)(sheng)的(de)概率或發生(sheng)(sheng)的(de)可(ke)能性的(de)策略。在學校方面，學校應不斷(duan)完善場地設施和(he)器材(cai)，對(dui)學校體(ti)育(yu)場地器材(cai)進(jin)(jin)(jin)行定期(qi)檢查、維修(xiu)，同(tong)時加強對(dui)學生(sheng)(sheng)的(de)安(an)全(quan)教育(yu)和(he)器材(cai)保護意識。其次，健(jian)全(quan)衛生(sheng)(sheng)保健(jian)制度(du)，盡量做到給每(mei)個學生(sheng)(sheng)建立健(jian)康(kang)檔(dang)案，并定期(qi)進(jin)(jin)(jin)行身體(ti)體(ti)質測試，疾病與健(jian)康(kang)測試等(deng)。最(zui)后(hou)，對(dui)不易(yi)參加體(ti)育(yu)運動的(de)學生(sheng)(sheng)進(jin)(jin)(jin)行安(an)全(quan)教育(yu)，做好監督工(gong)作。

（三）西安中(zhong)小學體育傷害事故風險(xian)轉移策略

風險(xian)(xian)轉移又叫合伙分擔風險(xian)(xian)，其目的不是降低風險(xian)(xian)發生的概率和不利后(hou)果的大小(xiao)，而是借用合同或協(xie)議，在風險(xian)(xian)事故一(yi)旦發生時將損失的一(yi)部分轉移到項目以外的第三方身上[2]。

在進行體(ti)(ti)育活動時(shi)，有些體(ti)(ti)育傷害(hai)事(shi)故不可能完全避免，當然也防不勝(sheng)防。對于一些意外(wai)發生頻率(lv)低，但傷害(hai)性比(bi)較嚴重的(de)潛在風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)，應該(gai)采取風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)移(yi)的(de)應對策(ce)略，具(ju)體(ti)(ti)方(fang)法則是通過購買保險(xian)(xian)的(de)形式來轉(zhuan)(zhuan)移(yi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)。建立學(xue)校體(ti)(ti)育風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)對降低學(xue)校體(ti)(ti)育風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)，加強學(xue)校安(an)全管理(li)有著積(ji)極的(de)現實意義。

（四(si)）西(xi)安中小學體育(yu)傷害事(shi)故風險自留策(ce)略(lve)

風險(xian)自(zi)留(liu)是指將傷害(hai)風險(xian)可能(neng)造成(cheng)的損失全部或者一部分留(liu)給校方(fang)自(zi)己(ji)承擔。在進行體育活(huo)動時，有時會在跑步時不小心跌倒，擦傷或是關(guan)節扭傷等，這些意(yi)外狀況傷害(hai)性較小，發生頻率也較低(di)，則采取風險(xian)自(zi)留(liu)的技術來應對(dui)。

二、西安中小學體育傷害事故風險應對策略

（一）加強(qiang)學生自身(shen)體育(yu)風(feng)險教育(yu)

在應對(dui)體育(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)安全(quan)風險(xian)的(de)(de)過程(cheng)中，加強學(xue)生(sheng)自身的(de)(de)安全(quan)教(jiao)(jiao)育(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)意(yi)(yi)識是不(bu)可缺少(shao)的(de)(de)。首先，在開學(xue)之際(ji)，對(dui)班級中不(bu)能進(jin)行(xing)(xing)劇烈活(huo)動(dong)的(de)(de)學(xue)生(sheng)進(jin)行(xing)(xing)統計(ji)，同時講明在患(huan)有的(de)(de)疾病的(de)(de)情況下禁止(zhi)參(can)加劇烈運動(dong)，并(bing)(bing)對(dui)其進(jin)行(xing)(xing)醫(yi)療體育(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)鍛(duan)煉或不(bu)鍛(duan)煉，改為(wei)體育(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)理(li)論基礎(chu)知識教(jiao)(jiao)學(xue)。其次，體育(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)教(jiao)(jiao)師在上(shang)課(ke)前明確(que)教(jiao)(jiao)學(xue)任(ren)務，同時對(dui)學(xue)生(sheng)將要(yao)進(jin)行(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)活(huo)動(dong)進(jin)行(xing)(xing)風險(xian)程(cheng)度預(yu)測，必要(yao)時預(yu)于(yu)制止(zhi)。最(zui)后(hou)，體育(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)教(jiao)(jiao)師在每次上(shang)課(ke)前講解安全(quan)注意(yi)(yi)事項，并(bing)(bing)做好充分的(de)(de)準備(bei)活(huo)動(dong)。

（二）定(ding)期對教師進(jin)行(xing)培(pei)訓(xun)和考核(he)，加強教師自身應(ying)對風險的能(neng)力

在風險預防(fang)和風險處理中，教(jiao)師(shi)占(zhan)有舉足(zu)輕(qing)重的(de)地位。體(ti)育(yu)教(jiao)師(shi)在教(jiao)學和訓練中起主導作用，是體(ti)育(yu)運動傷害的(de)主要責任人。所以，在進(jin)行體(ti)育(yu)教(jiao)學前(qian)對(dui)體(ti)育(yu)教(jiao)師(shi)的(de)安全技(ji)能(neng)培(pei)訓顯得尤為重要。通(tong)過對(dui)體(ti)育(yu)教(jiao)師(shi)的(de)體(ti)育(yu)安全崗(gang)前(qian)培(pei)訓，提高教(jiao)師(shi)的(de)預防(fang)、應對(dui)及處理風險的(de)能(neng)力。

考核制度完(wan)善，定期(qi)對體育教(jiao)(jiao)師(shi)進行(xing)安(an)(an)全(quan)教(jiao)(jiao)育知識和體育安(an)(an)全(quan)事故(gu)緊急(ji)處(chu)理的考核，并(bing)將其(qi)作(zuo)為(wei)教(jiao)(jiao)師(shi)晉升職稱(cheng)的重要(yao)依據，如此一(yi)來，既(ji)可以提高(gao)體育教(jiao)(jiao)師(shi)對體育安(an)(an)全(quan)風險教(jiao)(jiao)育的積極性，又可大(da)大(da)提高(gao)教(jiao)(jiao)師(shi)的安(an)(an)全(quan)管理、安(an)(an)全(quan)教(jiao)(jiao)育和應急(ji)管理能力。

（三）加強學校(xiao)體(ti)育安全(quan)風險管理制度，建(jian)立校(xiao)園內(nei)運動損傷預(yu)防和(he)危(wei)機處(chu)理機制系統(tong)

逐漸完善(shan)和加強學(xue)校體(ti)(ti)育(yu)安(an)全(quan)管理(li)制(zhi)度，制(zhi)定體(ti)(ti)育(yu)教(jiao)學(xue)以(yi)(yi)及(ji)體(ti)(ti)育(yu)訓(xun)練時的(de)安(an)全(quan)規章制(zhi)度，對體(ti)(ti)育(yu)場地(di)、器材(cai)的(de)使用加強安(an)全(quan)管理(li)，確保(bao)(bao)體(ti)(ti)育(yu)場地(di)、器材(cai)的(de)安(an)全(quan)使用，保(bao)(bao)護(hu)學(xue)校公(gong)共財產不(bu)受損(sun)失，在(zai)保(bao)(bao)障(zhang)正常的(de)教(jiao)學(xue)秩序以(yi)(yi)及(ji)學(xue)生(sheng)人身安(an)全(quan)的(de)基礎上(shang)，制(zhi)定學(xue)生(sheng)課間活動的(de)安(an)全(quan)管理(li)辦法。

三、總結

通過實地(di)調(diao)研，專家訪問以(yi)及(ji)各學(xue)校之(zhi)間的對比研究(jiu)，主(zhu)要(yao)從學(xue)生(sheng)、體育教(jiao)師(shi)(shi)自(zi)身以(yi)及(ji)學(xue)校環(huan)境管(guan)理三方面進行(xing)了(le)風(feng)險識(shi)(shi)別和評估(gu)，并制定(ding)了(le)相關(guan)因素分析表。在最后(hou)風(feng)險應(ying)對策略上主(zhu)要(yao)從風(feng)險回避、風(feng)險降低、風(feng)險轉移、風(feng)險自(zi)留(liu)四個方面進行(xing)分析，同時在風(feng)險管(guan)理的應(ying)對工作中，進行(xing)風(feng)險安全教(jiao)育是(shi)非常必(bi)要(yao)的，在教(jiao)師(shi)(shi)掌握(wo)風(feng)險防范知識(shi)(shi)的基礎(chu)上去(qu)影(ying)響學(xue)生(sheng)，提高學(xue)生(sheng)的風(feng)險防范意識(shi)(shi)和能(neng)力。

參考文獻：

[1] 何勇.學校體(ti)育(yu)中的(de)風險管理及應對(dui)策略[[J].中國校外(wai)教育(yu).2008（06）.

[2] 高進，石巖(yan).中學生體(ti)育活動傷害事故的風險管理(li)[J].體(ti)育與科(ke)學.2008.29（5）.

[3] 王苗，石巖.小(xiao)學(xue)生(sheng)體育活動風(feng)險識別、評(ping)估與應對[J].天津體育學(xue)院學(xue)報.2011.26（1）.

篇3

【關(guan)鍵詞(ci)】建筑企(qi)業；財務；防范

一、財(cai)務風險的識別與確認

財務風(feng)險識別是對其進行管理的第一步(bu)，也是很重要(yao)的一步(bu)。由于(yu)風(feng)險常常隱藏在企業生(sheng)產(chan)經營(ying)活動(dong)的各個環節，因此(ci)識別財務風(feng)險要(yao)根據企業生(sheng)產(chan)經營(ying)特點采取(qu)有針對性的方法和手段。風(feng)險識別主要(yao)包括收(shou)集信息(xi)資料(liao)、分(fen)析(xi)不確定性、確定風(feng)險事件、編制風(feng)險識別報告等(deng)內容。

財(cai)務(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)識別的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)方(fang)法(fa)(fa)(fa)有風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)分(fen)析(xi)問(wen)卷、核查(cha)(cha)表(biao)法(fa)(fa)(fa)、財(cai)務(wu)(wu)報(bao)表(biao)法(fa)(fa)(fa)、流程方(fang)法(fa)(fa)(fa)、現(xian)場(chang)(chang)視察(cha)、合(he)約(yue)分(fen)析(xi)、損(sun)失(shi)(shi)記(ji)(ji)錄(lu)分(fen)析(xi)、事故報(bao)告等方(fang)法(fa)(fa)(fa)。風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)分(fen)析(xi)問(wen)卷和(he)(he)核查(cha)(cha)表(biao)法(fa)(fa)(fa)一般(ban)是通(tong)過(guo)進(jin)行文件整理、面(mian)(mian)談和(he)(he)檢(jian)(jian)驗以(yi)獲(huo)得財(cai)務(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)性質(zhi)和(he)(he)來源(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)資(zi)料。財(cai)務(wu)(wu)報(bao)表(biao)法(fa)(fa)(fa)是通(tong)過(guo)分(fen)析(xi)企(qi)業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)各(ge)種財(cai)務(wu)(wu)報(bao)表(biao)，逐項檢(jian)(jian)查(cha)(cha)企(qi)業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)資(zi)產(chan)、負債情況、財(cai)務(wu)(wu)預算以(yi)及(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)企(qi)業(ye)資(zi)源(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)應(ying)用消耗等情況，以(yi)此來判斷企(qi)業(ye)承擔的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)財(cai)務(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)及(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)其程度。流程方(fang)法(fa)(fa)(fa)是通(tong)過(guo)研(yan)究企(qi)業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)業(ye)務(wu)(wu)范圍(wei)及(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)操作流程，進(jin)而確(que)定(ding)具體(ti)環節中是否承擔著某些財(cai)務(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)方(fang)法(fa)(fa)(fa)。現(xian)場(chang)(chang)視察(cha)是風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理人(ren)員(yuan)必須進(jin)行的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)過(guo)程，通(tong)過(guo)現(xian)場(chang)(chang)視察(cha)，檢(jian)(jian)查(cha)(cha)企(qi)業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)設(she)施(shi)、設(she)備(bei)、生(sheng)產(chan)經營進(jin)展情況的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)第(di)一手資(zi)料，來識別潛在的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)財(cai)務(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)。合(he)約(yue)分(fen)析(xi)是通(tong)過(guo)分(fen)析(xi)企(qi)業(ye)與不同(tong)(tong)主體(ti)簽訂(ding)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)各(ge)種不同(tong)(tong)形式的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)合(he)約(yue)，檢(jian)(jian)查(cha)(cha)合(he)約(yue)界(jie)定(ding)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)雙方(fang)權責范圍(wei)，恰(qia)當的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)合(he)約(yue)簽訂(ding)可以(yi)有效(xiao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)保(bao)護企(qi)業(ye)財(cai)務(wu)(wu)利益和(he)(he)權益。損(sun)失(shi)(shi)記(ji)(ji)錄(lu)分(fen)析(xi)法(fa)(fa)(fa)是指(zhi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理人(ren)員(yuan)可以(yi)從過(guo)去的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)損(sun)失(shi)(shi)記(ji)(ji)錄(lu)中分(fen)析(xi)損(sun)失(shi)(shi)發生(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)原因(yin)、性質(zhi)、程度和(he)(he)影(ying)響(xiang)范圍(wei)。事故報(bao)告法(fa)(fa)(fa)需要(yao)企(qi)業(ye)建(jian)立有效(xiao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)機制，把日常的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)損(sun)失(shi)(shi)及(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)傷亡事故詳(xiang)細記(ji)(ji)錄(lu)下(xia)來，風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理人(ren)員(yuan)通(tong)過(guo)檢(jian)(jian)查(cha)(cha)損(sun)失(shi)(shi)及(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)傷亡事故記(ji)(ji)錄(lu)來掌握整個事故的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)全(quan)面(mian)(mian)資(zi)料，確(que)認財(cai)務(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)損(sun)失(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)程度及(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)影(ying)響(xiang)范圍(wei)。

二、財(cai)務風險(xian)的(de)分(fen)析與評價(jia)

當企業(ye)的財務風險(xian)確認后(hou)，需(xu)要對(dui)其進(jin)行風險(xian)分(fen)析(xi)(xi)與(yu)評價，對(dui)于(yu)風險(xian)的規律性進(jin)行研究和量(liang)化分(fen)析(xi)(xi)。事實(shi)上，能夠識別羅列(lie)出的企業(ye)每(mei)一(yi)個風險(xian)都有自身(shen)的規律、特點、影(ying)響范圍以及影(ying)響后(hou)果，它們(men)的影(ying)響后(hou)果以貨(huo)幣單位來度量(liang)，最終轉化為(wei)企業(ye)的財務風險(xian)。

財務風(feng)險(xian)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)的(de)內容包括風(feng)險(xian)存(cun)(cun)在和(he)發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)的(de)時間(jian)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)、風(feng)險(xian)的(de)影響和(he)損失分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)、風(feng)險(xian)發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)的(de)可能(neng)性分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)、風(feng)險(xian)級(ji)別、風(feng)險(xian)的(de)起因和(he)可控性分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)等內容。對風(feng)險(xian)存(cun)(cun)在和(he)發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)的(de)時間(jian)進行分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)即(ji)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)風(feng)險(xian)可能(neng)在生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)經營周期或施(shi)工項目的(de)哪(na)個(ge)階(jie)段、哪(na)個(ge)環節上發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。有(you)(you)許(xu)多風(feng)險(xian)具(ju)有(you)(you)明顯的(de)階(jie)段性，建筑企業有(you)(you)的(de)風(feng)險(xian)直接與(yu)具(ju)體的(de)工程活(huo)動相聯系，這個(ge)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)對于建筑企業財務風(feng)險(xian)的(de)預警有(you)(you)很大的(de)作用(yong)。

對于建(jian)筑(zhu)企業(ye)財(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)和損失進行分(fen)析是(shi)(shi)個(ge)(ge)非常(chang)(chang)復雜的(de)(de)(de)問題。建(jian)筑(zhu)企業(ye)面(mian)臨(lin)各種風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)，各種風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)之(zhi)間相(xiang)互作(zuo)用(yong)可能會(hui)(hui)導致(zhi)財(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)發生。有(you)的(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)面(mian)小，有(you)的(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)面(mian)很(hen)大，可能引起整個(ge)(ge)施工(gong)工(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)的(de)(de)(de)中斷或報(bao)廢(fei)。有(you)的(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)之(zhi)間常(chang)(chang)常(chang)(chang)是(shi)(shi)有(you)關聯的(de)(de)(de)，例如，某個(ge)(ge)施工(gong)工(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)活(huo)動(dong)因(yin)為(wei)(wei)財(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)存在，受到干擾而拖延，可能會(hui)(hui)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)到后(hou)續的(de)(de)(de)其他活(huo)動(dong)。對建(jian)筑(zhu)企業(ye)而言(yan)，經濟(ji)形(xing)勢的(de)(de)(de)惡(e)化(hua)容(rong)易(yi)引起物價(jia)上漲，一(yi)方面(mian)可能會(hui)(hui)導致(zhi)業(ye)主支(zhi)付能力的(de)(de)(de)變化(hua)，另一(yi)方面(mian)可能會(hui)(hui)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)建(jian)筑(zhu)工(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)材料物資(zi)的(de)(de)(de)采購、員工(gong)薪酬(chou)及各種費(fei)用(yong)支(zhi)出，最終會(hui)(hui)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)整個(ge)(ge)工(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)的(de)(de)(de)工(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)費(fei)用(yong)。財(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)一(yi)般通(tong)過(guo)以下過(guo)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)分(fen)析：首先，考(kao)慮正常(chang)(chang)狀況(kuang)下，假設沒(mei)有(you)該(gai)財(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)情況(kuang)，如建(jian)筑(zhu)企業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)工(gong)期、成(cheng)本費(fei)用(yong)和收益(yi)情況(kuang)；其次，考(kao)慮財(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)，看施工(gong)過(guo)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)、施工(gong)消耗等各個(ge)(ge)方面(mian)有(you)什么(me)變化(hua)；最后(hou)，兩(liang)者的(de)(de)(de)差異確定為(wei)(wei)財(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)。

由于財務風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)因素(su)很(hen)多，涉及很(hen)多方面，人們并(bing)不是對(dui)(dui)所有財務風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)都(dou)予以十分重視，通常對(dui)(dui)財務風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)進(jin)行評級，考慮(lv)財務風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)損失以及發(fa)生的(de)(de)概率，計算財務風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)損失期望值(zhi)，一(yi)(yi)般(ban)而(er)言，發(fa)生的(de)(de)概率很(hen)大而(er)且損失金(jin)額很(hen)高(gao)的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)，要(yao)重點(dian)防(fang)控，對(dui)(dui)于發(fa)生的(de)(de)可(ke)能性一(yi)(yi)般(ban)而(er)且損失也一(yi)(yi)般(ban)的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)，企業(ye)要(yao)進(jin)行一(yi)(yi)般(ban)防(fang)控，對(dui)(dui)于發(fa)生的(de)(de)可(ke)能性很(hen)小而(er)且損失也很(hen)小的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)，企業(ye)可(ke)以不予考慮(lv)。

對(dui)于(yu)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)起因(yin)和(he)可(ke)控(kong)(kong)性進行分析，是風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)預(yu)測、風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)防控(kong)(kong)、風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)責(ze)任分析等工作的(de)(de)前提。有(you)的(de)(de)財務(wu)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)企(qi)業(ye)可(ke)以進行控(kong)(kong)制，減小其發生(sheng)的(de)(de)可(ke)能性；有(you)的(de)(de)財務(wu)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)企(qi)業(ye)對(dui)它的(de)(de)發生(sheng)與否卻(que)無能為力。企(qi)業(ye)需要(yao)根據財務(wu)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)可(ke)控(kong)(kong)與否選擇不同的(de)(de)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)應對(dui)策略。

企(qi)(qi)業(ye)財(cai)務風險的分(fen)(fen)析(xi)方法(fa)(fa)包括財(cai)務比(bi)率分(fen)(fen)析(xi)法(fa)(fa)、比(bi)較分(fen)(fen)析(xi)法(fa)(fa)，杠(gang)桿分(fen)(fen)析(xi)法(fa)(fa)、敏(min)感性分(fen)(fen)析(xi)法(fa)(fa)、決策樹分(fen)(fen)析(xi)法(fa)(fa)、因果(guo)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)法(fa)(fa)、價值(zhi)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)法(fa)(fa)、變量分(fen)(fen)析(xi)法(fa)(fa)等(deng)方法(fa)(fa)，企(qi)(qi)業(ye)在(zai)實際(ji)工作中可結合(he)自身特點選(xuan)擇使用或組合(he)使用。

三、財(cai)務風險應(ying)對策略

篇4

>> 金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)危(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)機(ji)(ji)背(bei)(bei)(bei)景(jing)(jing)下(xia)外(wai)(wai)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)財(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)應(ying)(ying)對(dui)(dui)策(ce)略研究(jiu) 金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)危(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)機(ji)(ji)背(bei)(bei)(bei)景(jing)(jing)下(xia)中(zhong)國(guo)服務(wu)(wu)型外(wai)(wai)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)價(jia)值(zhi)鏈(lian)的(de)(de)重(zhong)塑 金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)危(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)機(ji)(ji)下(xia)外(wai)(wai)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)發展(zhan)對(dui)(dui)策(ce) 金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)危(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)機(ji)(ji)環境下(xia)外(wai)(wai)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)(li) 金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)危(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)機(ji)(ji)環境下(xia)外(wai)(wai)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)分(fen)析 論(lun)金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)危(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)機(ji)(ji)背(bei)(bei)(bei)景(jing)(jing)下(xia)外(wai)(wai)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)財(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)管(guan)理(li)(li) 金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)危(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)機(ji)(ji)背(bei)(bei)(bei)景(jing)(jing)下(xia)的(de)(de)外(wai)(wai)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)現金(jin)(jin)(jin)流管(guan)理(li)(li)策(ce)略探討(tao) 后(hou)金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)危(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)機(ji)(ji)背(bei)(bei)(bei)景(jing)(jing)下(xia)談外(wai)(wai)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)財(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)(li) 后(hou)金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)危(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)機(ji)(ji)下(xia)中(zhong)小外(wai)(wai)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)戰略調整研究(jiu) 國(guo)際金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)危(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)機(ji)(ji)背(bei)(bei)(bei)景(jing)(jing)下(xia)我國(guo)外(wai)(wai)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)面(mian)臨的(de)(de)機(ji)(ji)遇(yu)與挑(tiao)戰 試論(lun)外(wai)(wai)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)應(ying)(ying)對(dui)(dui)金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)危(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)機(ji)(ji) 加強外(wai)(wai)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)財(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)管(guan)理(li)(li)應(ying)(ying)對(dui)(dui)金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)危(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)機(ji)(ji) 金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)危(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)機(ji)(ji)下(xia)中(zhong)小外(wai)(wai)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)出口(kou)信(xin)用風險(xian)(xian)(xian)防(fang)范 金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)危(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)機(ji)(ji)下(xia)外(wai)(wai)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)出口(kou)轉內銷(xiao)戰略的(de)(de)SWOT分(fen)析 探討(tao)金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)危(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)機(ji)(ji)下(xia)外(wai)(wai)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)(li) 金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)危(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)機(ji)(ji)下(xia)我國(guo)中(zhong)小型外(wai)(wai)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)應(ying)(ying)對(dui)(dui)策(ce)略 金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)危(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)機(ji)(ji)下(xia)外(wai)(wai)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)面(mian)臨的(de)(de)挑(tiao)戰\機(ji)(ji)遇(yu)及應(ying)(ying)對(dui)(dui)策(ce)略 后(hou)金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)危(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)機(ji)(ji)時期外(wai)(wai)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)財(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)問題(ti)探析 后(hou)金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)危(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)機(ji)(ji)時代外(wai)(wai)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)問題(ti)與對(dui)(dui)策(ce) 后(hou)金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)危(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)機(ji)(ji)時期我國(guo)外(wai)(wai)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)管(guan)理(li)(li)創新研究(jiu) 常見問題(ti)解答 當(dang)前所在(zai)位置：.

[4]四川新聞網.中國工商(shang)銀行提升貿易金融服務助力(li)外貿企(qi)業發(fa)展[EB/OL].（2009-5-20）[2009-5-22]http：///system/2009/05/22/011944964.shtml.

本文屬于(yu)北(bei)京市(shi)教委(wei)2011年度人(ren)才(cai)強(qiang)教深化計劃(hua)項(xiang)目—京津冀地(di)區貿(mao)易與(yu)經濟(ji)發展模式研究學術創新(xin)團隊（編(bian)號：PHR201106139）項(xiang)目和北(bei)京市(shi)優(you)秀(xiu)人(ren)才(cai)培養資助(zhu)項(xiang)目研究成(cheng)果。

作者簡介：

篇5

【關鍵詞】 EPC模(mo)式 通(tong)信建設(she)工程 項目風險管理(li)

前(qian)言：在項(xiang)目管(guan)(guan)理(li)中(zhong)一(yi)項(xiang)十(shi)分(fen)重(zhong)要(yao)(yao)的(de)內(nei)容為風險管(guan)(guan)理(li)，這(zhe)也是項(xiang)目管(guan)(guan)理(li)難(nan)點，盡管(guan)(guan)現(xian)階段風險管(guan)(guan)理(li)研究已經逐漸成熟，但(dan)能夠應用于通(tong)(tong)信建設(she)工程中(zhong)的(de)研究卻(que)很(hen)少。通(tong)(tong)過(guo)調(diao)查(cha)研究得(de)知，多(duo)數項(xiang)目風險分(fen)析與(yu)評估(gu)都是通(tong)(tong)過(guo)定(ding)(ding)性來實現(xian)的(de)，很(hen)少涉及定(ding)(ding)量分(fen)析與(yu)評估(gu)。現(xian)階段在國(guo)際上應用最多(duo)的(de)就是EPC模式(shi)，這(zhe)也是我國(guo)通(tong)(tong)信工程建設(she)項(xiang)目管(guan)(guan)理(li)模式(shi)的(de)主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)發展方向，因(yin)此，有必(bi)要(yao)(yao)研究EPC模式(shi)下(xia)的(de)通(tong)(tong)信建設(she)工程項(xiang)目風險管(guan)(guan)理(li)。

一、EPC模式下通信建設工程(cheng)項目風險分(fen)析與(yu)評(ping)估(gu)方法

要(yao)做好項目(mu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)估(gu)工作最重要(yao)的(de)(de)就(jiu)(jiu)是(shi)識(shi)別風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，了解風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)類(lei)型(xing)，只(zhi)有識(shi)別出風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)以(yi)(yi)(yi)后(hou)(hou)，才能(neng)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)與(yu)評(ping)估(gu)出屬(shu)于(yu)哪種(zhong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，實(shi)(shi)現(xian)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)控制，減少風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)影(ying)響。經過(guo)(guo)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)別與(yu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)估(gu)以(yi)(yi)(yi)后(hou)(hou)就(jiu)(jiu)可以(yi)(yi)(yi)將(jiang)其中(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)關鍵信息提(ti)煉出來(lai)，以(yi)(yi)(yi)便風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管理(li)階段使用(yong)。將(jiang)定性(xing)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)法(fa)與(yu)定量分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)法(fa)應用(yong)到風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)與(yu)評(ping)價中(zhong)(zhong)，主要(yao)是(shi)為(wei)(wei)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)別與(yu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)決策服務，它可以(yi)(yi)(yi)將(jiang)各種(zhong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)所帶來(lai)的(de)(de)影(ying)響細致(zhi)化，讓風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管理(li)者能(neng)夠(gou)完(wan)全掌握風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)程(cheng)度，這樣(yang)就(jiu)(jiu)可以(yi)(yi)(yi)做出正確的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)對(dui)策，采取有效管理(li)措(cuo)施[1]。通(tong)常情(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)下，能(neng)夠(gou)用(yong)于(yu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)估(gu)的(de)(de)方法(fa)有很(hen)多，如蒙特(te)卡洛(luo)法(fa)與(yu)敏感性(xing)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)法(fa)等(deng)。其中(zhong)(zhong)對(dui)于(yu)蒙特(te)卡洛(luo)法(fa)來(lai)說，這種(zhong)方法(fa)又被稱為(wei)(wei)統計(ji)實(shi)(shi)驗法(fa)，它通(tong)過(guo)(guo)模(mo)擬項目(mu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)概率分(fen)(fen)布情(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)來(lai)完(wan)成評(ping)估(gu)。要(yao)使用(yong)該評(ping)估(gu)方法(fa)離不(bu)開計(ji)算機(ji)的(de)(de)應用(yong)，在計(ji)算機(ji)設備的(de)(de)作用(yong)下完(wan)成模(mo)擬實(shi)(shi)際(ji)概率分(fen)(fen)布與(yu)統計(ji)工作，這樣(yang)也可以(yi)(yi)(yi)通(tong)過(guo)(guo)實(shi)(shi)驗完(wan)成隨機(ji)數統計(ji)。利用(yong)這種(zhong)技術可以(yi)(yi)(yi)有效降低概率差額(e)，同時其精(jing)度與(yu)有效性(xing)也將(jiang)更高，它屬(shu)于(yu)一種(zhong)以(yi)(yi)(yi)數學(xue)模(mo)型(xing)與(yu)計(ji)算機(ji)仿真(zhen)為(wei)(wei)基礎的(de)(de)方法(fa)，通(tong)過(guo)(guo)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)概率分(fen)(fen)布情(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)就(jiu)(jiu)可以(yi)(yi)(yi)確定風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)情(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)，也是(shi)現(xian)階段最常用(yong)的(de)(de)一種(zhong)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)與(yu)評(ping)估(gu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)方法(fa)。

二、EPC模式下(xia)通信(xin)建設工程(cheng)項目風險管理對策

2.1構建PC風險應(ying)對策略圖(tu)

為做(zuo)好(hao)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)控制(zhi)工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)，最(zui)重(zhong)要(yao)的就是重(zhong)視風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)控制(zhi)工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)，了解影響風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)發生(sheng)的因(yin)素(su)，確(que)(que)定(ding)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)發生(sheng)概率以及(ji)明確(que)(que)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)產生(sheng)所(suo)帶來的嚴重(zhong)后果。這就需(xu)要(yao)做(zuo)好(hao)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)控制(zhi)策略(lve)建設工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)，其主要(yao)內(nei)(nei)容不僅要(yao)包括風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)規避、風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)預防，還要(yao)包括風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)抑制(zhi)以及(ji)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)轉移，因(yin)此，可以通過構建PC風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)應對策略(lve)實(shi)現這一目標，在(zai)PC風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)應對策略(lve)圖(tu)中要(yao)分(fen)別對著四個內(nei)(nei)容的前提條件、方式、結果、手段(duan)以及(ji)適用風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)類(lei)型(xing)詳細說明[2]。

2.2針對(dui)業主和總承包商風險應(ying)對(dui)

風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)是無(wu)法(fa)消除的(de)，人們只(zhi)能(neng)采取(qu)一(yi)些措施(shi)降(jiang)低風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)發生所(suo)帶來(lai)的(de)影(ying)響(xiang)。在(zai)諸(zhu)多風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)中，一(yi)旦出現(xian)宏觀風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)就(jiu)會(hui)影(ying)響(xiang)到(dao)整個工(gong)程，因此一(yi)定要(yao)采取(qu)有(you)效(xiao)措施(shi)加以(yi)應對(dui)。對(dui)于這種(zhong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)，應要(yao)求(qiu)項目經理實時(shi)(shi)了解風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)發展情況，針對(dui)其(qi)變化及時(shi)(shi)采取(qu)有(you)效(xiao)措施(shi)加以(yi)解決(jue)，這樣就(jiu)可以(yi)在(zai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)發生以(yi)后(hou)在(zai)第(di)一(yi)時(shi)(shi)間得到(dao)處理，降(jiang)低風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)損失。現(xian)階段，能(neng)夠(gou)應對(dui)宏觀風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)的(de)措施(shi)有(you)兩種(zhong)，一(yi)種(zhong)是風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)轉移，即(ji)購買保險(xian)或外包，另一(yi)種(zhong)則是風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)規避[3]。由于所(suo)有(you)項目建設(she)都(dou)會(hui)受到(dao)國家政治與社會(hui)環境影(ying)響(xiang)，尤(you)其(qi)是政治影(ying)響(xiang)較大，嚴重的(de)還會(hui)造成一(yi)定經濟(ji)(ji)損失，因此，應時(shi)(shi)刻(ke)關(guan)注國家政治形勢(shi)，了解歷史發展背(bei)景，根(gen)據實際情況施(shi)工(gong)建設(she)，必要(yao)時(shi)(shi)候可以(yi)強(qiang)化安全保護，減少(shao)企業經濟(ji)(ji)損失。

2.3承包(bao)商選擇流程

承(cheng)(cheng)包(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)商(shang)(shang)(shang)的(de)(de)(de)選(xuan)擇將直接影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)到建設(she)項(xiang)目(mu)情況，這就需(xu)要(yao)業(ye)主(zhu)慎(shen)重選(xuan)擇承(cheng)(cheng)包(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)商(shang)(shang)(shang)，確(que)(que)保(bao)其具有能夠勝任EPC模式項(xiang)目(mu)建設(she)的(de)(de)(de)能力(li)。在投標階段，承(cheng)(cheng)包(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)商(shang)(shang)(shang)審核與選(xuan)擇十(shi)分關鍵，對(dui)(dui)于承(cheng)(cheng)包(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)商(shang)(shang)(shang)審核來說(shuo)，主(zhu)要(yao)是為了(le)限(xian)制承(cheng)(cheng)包(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)商(shang)(shang)(shang)數(shu)量(liang)，使(shi)符合條(tiao)件的(de)(de)(de)承(cheng)(cheng)包(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)商(shang)(shang)(shang)進(jin)入競爭中，業(ye)主(zhu)所做的(de)(de)(de)就是需(xu)要(yao)識別(bie)承(cheng)(cheng)包(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)商(shang)(shang)(shang)真實情況，全面(mian)了(le)解承(cheng)(cheng)包(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)商(shang)(shang)(shang)生產運營情況，減少虛假內容的(de)(de)(de)出(chu)現(xian)，同時審查承(cheng)(cheng)包(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)商(shang)(shang)(shang)成(cheng)員構成(cheng)，減少不利影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)；而(er)對(dui)(dui)于承(cheng)(cheng)包(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)商(shang)(shang)(shang)選(xuan)擇，則要(yao)通過標準(zhun)完成(cheng)衡量(liang)與評估(gu)，制定(ding)一些符合該工程實際情況的(de)(de)(de)條(tiao)款，使(shi)承(cheng)(cheng)包(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)商(shang)(shang)(shang)能夠將自(zi)身才能展現(xian)出(chu)來，如通過競爭機(ji)制展現(xian)承(cheng)(cheng)包(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)商(shang)(shang)(shang)為奪取(qu)該工作所做出(chu)的(de)(de)(de)努力(li)，既要(yao)保(bao)證成(cheng)本(ben)投入少，又要(yao)確(que)(que)保(bao)工程質量(liang)，并從建設(she)技術、信(xin)(xin)譽度等方面(mian)考察(cha)承(cheng)(cheng)包(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)商(shang)(shang)(shang)，不與信(xin)(xin)譽差的(de)(de)(de)企業(ye)合作，只有這樣的(de)(de)(de)承(cheng)(cheng)包(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)商(shang)(shang)(shang)才能成(cheng)為最佳選(xuan)擇。

結論(lun)：通(tong)信建設(she)十(shi)分重要(yao)，尤其是在(zai)EPC模式(shi)下(xia)的通(tong)信工程(cheng)建設(she)更是不(bu)可(ke)忽(hu)視，但在(zai)項(xiang)(xiang)目建設(she)中經常有風險存在(zai)，在(zai)一定程(cheng)度上(shang)影響(xiang)著項(xiang)(xiang)目安全(quan)，但風險又不(bu)能消除，這(zhe)就需要(yao)根據實際情況采取有效措(cuo)施減少風險的影響(xiang)，只有這(zhe)樣才(cai)能做好通(tong)信項(xiang)(xiang)目建設(she)工作，降低風險損失(shi)。

參 考 文 獻

[1]楊志(zhi)剛. 通(tong)信(xin)建設(she)工程項目風險管理研究[D].內(nei)蒙古大學，2012.

篇6

關鍵詞：名偵探(tan)柯南 塞(sai)巴(ba)斯醬 守護(hu)甜心 真珠美(mei)人(ren)魚(yu) 珍珠美(mei)人(ren)魚(yu)

在建筑(zhu)工程項(xiang)目管理中時常會遇到(dao)各種風險(xian)(xian)，項(xiang)目風險(xian)(xian)直(zhi)接影(ying)響項(xiang)目的效益甚至(zhi)成敗(bai)，貫(guan)穿項(xiang)目始終。本文就建筑(zhu)工程的施工階段來淺述(shu)風險(xian)(xian)控制的內容及基本思路。

1． 首先(xian)進行風險識別

建(jian)筑工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)無時不刻都存在風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)。首先要(yao)進(jin)行風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)別(bie)，就是(shi)標識(shi)出整個工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)建(jian)設的過程(cheng)中(zhong)可(ke)能出現的對項(xiang)目產生(sheng)影(ying)響(xiang)的風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)。風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)因素識(shi)別(bie)應注意借鑒歷史經驗(yan)，特別(bie)是(shi)后評價的經驗(yan)。同時可(ke)以運用“逆向(xiang)思維”方(fang)法(fa)(fa)來審(shen)視項(xiang)目，尋(xun)找可(ke)能導(dao)致項(xiang)目“不可(ke)行”的因素，以充分(fen)揭示(shi)項(xiang)目的風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)來源。風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)別(bie)常用的方(fang)法(fa)(fa)主要(yao)有風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)分(fen)解法(fa)(fa)、流程(cheng)圖(tu)法(fa)(fa)、頭(tou)腦風(feng)(feng)暴法(fa)(fa)、檢(jian)查表法(fa)(fa)、情景(jing)分(fen)析法(fa)(fa) 等等。具(ju)體操作中(zhong)，大多通過專家調(diao)查的方(fang)式(shi)完成(cheng)。就工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)建(jian)設施工(gong)(gong)階(jie)段而言，風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)可(ke)以分(fen)成(cheng)以下幾類：技(ji)術風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)、管理(li)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)、組織風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)、外部(bu)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)。

2． 然后進行風(feng)險(xian)的估計

在進(jin)行風(feng)險(xian)識別并分(fen)(fen)(fen)類之(zhi)后(hou)，必(bi)須就各(ge)項風(feng)險(xian)發生的(de)可能性(xing)(xing)（概率(lv)(lv)）和對(dui)項目的(de)影響程度(du)做一些(xie)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析和評價。風(feng)險(xian)估(gu)(gu)(gu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)的(de)方(fang)法(fa)包(bao)括風(feng)險(xian)概率(lv)(lv)估(gu)(gu)(gu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)方(fang)法(fa)和風(feng)險(xian)影響估(gu)(gu)(gu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)方(fang)法(fa)兩類，前者(zhe)分(fen)(fen)(fen)為主觀(guan)估(gu)(gu)(gu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)和客觀(guan)估(gu)(gu)(gu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)，后(hou)者(zhe)有(you)概率(lv)(lv)樹(shu)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析、蒙特卡洛模(mo)擬(ni)等方(fang)法(fa)。風(feng)險(xian)估(gu)(gu)(gu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)應采取(qu)定性(xing)(xing)描述與定量(liang)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析相結合的(de)方(fang)法(fa)，從而對(dui)項目面臨的(de)風(feng)險(xian)做出(chu)全(quan)面的(de)估(gu)(gu)(gu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)。

定性評(ping)估是(shi)將風(feng)險發生(sheng)概(gai)率(lv)和影(ying)響力分成低、中(zhong)、高、極高等(deng)(deng)幾(ji)個等(deng)(deng)級(ji)，通(tong)(tong)過相互比較確定每(mei)個事(shi)件(jian)的(de)(de)等(deng)(deng)級(ji)。例如在工程建設項目中(zhong)，某些風(feng)險發生(sheng)的(de)(de)概(gai)率(lv)比較高，但(dan)影(ying)響可能只是(shi)局部、有限、輕微的(de)(de)，則(ze)該種質量通(tong)(tong)病風(feng)險的(de)(de)等(deng)(deng)級(ji)是(shi)低級(ji)或中(zhong)級(ji)。反之，如果發生(sheng)的(de)(de)概(gai)率(lv)非(fei)常低，但(dan)風(feng)險產生(sheng)的(de)(de)影(ying)響極其嚴重，則(ze)最(zui)終(zhong)的(de)(de)后果可能是(shi)中(zhong)高等(deng)(deng)級(ji)。

定量評(ping)估：將發生(sheng)概率和影(ying)響力(li)用0~1之間的(de)(de)一個數字描述，然后找(zhao)出那些“概率×影(ying)響力(li)”乘積大的(de)(de)事(shi)件。例如在建設工(gong)程項(xiang)目中(zhong)，往往項(xiang)目進度(du)要(yao)求很(hen)緊， 但專業(ye)施工(gong)隊伍人(ren)員不足，這個事(shi)件的(de)(de)發生(sheng)概率大概為(wei)0.5，卻影(ying)響整個項(xiang)目的(de)(de)成敗，影(ying)響力(li)為(wei)0.8，則整個事(shi)件的(de)(de)定量評(ping)估值(zhi)為(wei)0.5*0.8= 0.4。

定性與定量(liang)不是(shi)絕對的，在深入(ru)研究和(he)分(fen)解之后，有些定性因(yin)素可以(yi)轉(zhuan)化為定量(liang)因(yin)素。

3.風險評價

風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)價(jia)是在風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)估計的基礎上，通過相應的指標(biao)體系和評(ping)價(jia)標(biao)準，對風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)程度進行劃分，以(yi)揭示影響項目成敗的關鍵風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因素(su)，以(yi)便針對關鍵風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因素(su)采取防范對策(ce)。風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)價(jia)包括(kuo)單(dan)因素(su)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)價(jia)和整體風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)價(jia)。

單(dan)因(yin)素風險(xian)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)，即評(ping)(ping)價(jia)單(dan)個(ge)風險(xian)因(yin)素對項目(mu)的(de)影響(xiang)程度，以找出影響(xiang)項目(mu)的(de)關鍵(jian)風險(xian)因(yin)素。評(ping)(ping)價(jia)方(fang)法主要(yao)有風險(xian)概率矩陣、專家評(ping)(ping)價(jia)法等(deng)。

項(xiang)目(mu)整體風(feng)險(xian)評(ping)價，即綜合評(ping)價若干主要風(feng)險(xian)因素對項(xiang)目(mu)整體的影響程度(du)。對于重大(da)投資(zi)項(xiang)目(mu)或估計風(feng)險(xian)很(hen)大(da)的項(xiang)目(mu)，應進行投資(zi)項(xiang)目(mu)整體風(feng)險(xian)分析。

4． 制定風險對策(ce)

風險(xian)對(dui)策(ce)研(yan)究(jiu)的基本要求包括：應貫(guan)穿于全過程；應具(ju)有針對(dui)性；應有可行性；必(bi)須具(ju)有經(jing)濟性；是參建各方共同任務。

風險(xian)應(ying)對策略主要有四(si)種： ①規避：通過(guo)變(bian)更項(xiang)目計(ji)(ji)(ji)劃消除風險(xian)或(huo)(huo)風險(xian)的(de)(de)(de)觸發條件，使目標免受影響(xiang)。這是(shi)一(yi)種事前的(de)(de)(de)風險(xian)應(ying)對策略。例(li)(li)如，在工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)建設(she)(she)的(de)(de)(de)過(guo)程(cheng)(cheng)中(zhong)明(ming)確工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)建設(she)(she)內容、確立(li)合(he)理施工(gong)(gong)方案、明(ming)確資(zi)(zi)源的(de)(de)(de)需求量和時間、加強與各參與方的(de)(de)(de)溝通，確保(bao)項(xiang)目資(zi)(zi)金(jin)等(deng)。②轉移： 不(bu)消除風險(xian)，而(er)是(shi)將(jiang)項(xiang)目風險(xian)的(de)(de)(de)結果連(lian)同應(ying)對的(de)(de)(de)權力轉移給(gei)第三方。這也(ye)是(shi)一(yi)種事前的(de)(de)(de)應(ying)對策略，例(li)(li)如，將(jiang)工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)建設(she)(she)中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)質量、安全(quan)責任交給(gei)監理方控制或(huo)(huo)與相關方簽定(ding)補償性合(he)同。③弱化(hua)：將(jiang)風險(xian)事件的(de)(de)(de)概率或(huo)(huo)影響(xiang)力降(jiang)低到一(yi)個可以接受的(de)(de)(de)程(cheng)(cheng)度。例(li)(li)如，在正(zheng)式的(de)(de)(de)工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)建設(she)(she)之(zhi)前對人員、機械、資(zi)(zi)源狀(zhuang)況進行評估，增加后備資(zi)(zi)源等(deng)。④接受：不(bu)改變(bian)項(xiang)目計(ji)(ji)(ji)劃，而(er)考慮發生后如何應(ying)對。例(li)(li)如當工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)建設(she)(she)出現問題時按事先制定(ding)好的(de)(de)(de)應(ying)急計(ji)(ji)(ji)劃處置或(huo)(huo)執行撤退計(ji)(ji)(ji)劃。

5．風險(xian)分析的結論(lun)

在完成(cheng)風(feng)險(xian)識(shi)別和(he)評(ping)估后(hou)，應歸納(na)和(he)綜(zong)述項目的主要(yao)風(feng)險(xian)，說明其原因(yin)、程度和(he)可能(neng)造成(cheng)的后(hou)果(guo)，以(yi)全面、清晰地展開項目的主要(yao)風(feng)險(xian)。同時將(jiang)風(feng)險(xian)對(dui)策研(yan)究結果(guo)進行(xing)匯總，內容(rong)一般包括(kuo)主要(yao)風(feng)險(xian)的名稱、風(feng)險(xian)起(qi)因(yin)、風(feng)險(xian)程度、后(hou)果(guo)及(ji)影響、主要(yao)應對(dui)策略等(deng)。

6.風險監控

風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)監控的(de)(de)目(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)是(shi)(shi)(shi)：監視(shi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)狀況(kuang)，確(que)定(ding)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)是(shi)(shi)(shi)已經(jing)發生(sheng)、仍然存在還是(shi)(shi)(shi)已經(jing)消失；檢查風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)對策(ce)是(shi)(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)有(you)效(xiao)，監控機制是(shi)(shi)(shi)否(fou)(fou)在運行(xing)；不斷識別(bie)新的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)并(bing)制定(ding)對 策(ce)。無論項目(mu)(mu)進(jin)展的(de)(de)情況(kuang)如何，都必須(xu)將風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)的(de)(de)計劃和行(xing)動結果整理(li)匯總進(jin)行(xing)分析，形成風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)報告。采取書面或口頭、不定(ding)期(qi)的(de)(de)或階段性的(de)(de)等(deng)多(duo)種方式，為 項目(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)實施、控制、管(guan)理(li)、決策(ce)提供信息基礎。

篇7

關鍵詞 軟件(jian)；編程實現(xian)；風險；規避

中圖分類號：F407.67 文(wen)獻標識碼：A 文(wen)章編號：1671—7597（2013）042-051-01

隨著(zhu)社(she)會需求的(de)不斷提(ti)高，應用于(yu)實際生產(chan)工作的(de)軟(ruan)件(jian)編程結構越(yue)來越(yue)復(fu)雜(za)，軟(ruan)件(jian)的(de)功能越(yue)來越(yue)多(duo)(duo)，軟(ruan)件(jian)體積越(yue)來越(yue)臃腫，所需消耗的(de)人力物力也越(yue)來越(yue)多(duo)(duo)，這(zhe)就使得(de)在(zai)軟(ruan)件(jian)開(kai)發(fa)中所存(cun)在(zai)的(de)風險變得(de)越(yue)來越(yue)大，若無法合理(li)規避或消除這(zhe)些存(cun)在(zai)的(de)風險，很容(rong)易使軟(ruan)件(jian)開(kai)發(fa)陷(xian)入無法自拔的(de)深潭，為開(kai)發(fa)單位或企業帶來經濟損失。

1 編(bian)程軟件中存在的風(feng)險(xian)概述

風(feng)險(xian)(xian)存(cun)在(zai)于軟(ruan)件(jian)(jian)(jian)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)的(de)(de)整(zheng)個生命周(zhou)期(qi)，是(shi)任意(yi)軟(ruan)件(jian)(jian)(jian)項(xiang)目中都存(cun)在(zai)的(de)(de)。潛在(zai)的(de)(de)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)容(rong)易對軟(ruan)件(jian)(jian)(jian)的(de)(de)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)和應用(yong)帶(dai)來消(xiao)極的(de)(de)影響(xiang)，如(ru)拖延軟(ruan)件(jian)(jian)(jian)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)進度(du)和開(kai)(kai)發(fa)時(shi)間、增(zeng)大研發(fa)投入成本、降低(di)軟(ruan)件(jian)(jian)(jian)質量等，嚴重者會導(dao)致編(bian)程軟(ruan)件(jian)(jian)(jian)的(de)(de)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)過(guo)程中斷或(huo)停止。在(zai)軟(ruan)件(jian)(jian)(jian)編(bian)程中存(cun)在(zai)的(de)(de)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)主要可以(yi)分為以(yi)下幾方(fang)(fang)面：客觀性(xing)(xing)因素(su)(su)如(ru)進度(du)因素(su)(su)、成本因素(su)(su)等，主觀性(xing)(xing)因素(su)(su)如(ru)人員(yuan)(yuan)因素(su)(su)、環境因素(su)(su)、技術(shu)因素(su)(su)等。這(zhe)些因素(su)(su)都會對編(bian)程軟(ruan)件(jian)(jian)(jian)的(de)(de)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)帶(dai)來諸多不確定(ding)性(xing)(xing)影響(xiang)和風(feng)險(xian)(xian)。若在(zai)軟(ruan)件(jian)(jian)(jian)項(xiang)目計劃(hua)(hua)、估算、構建、管理(li)等方(fang)(fang)面沒有制訂(ding)合(he)理(li)的(de)(de)規劃(hua)(hua)和估計或(huo)在(zai)軟(ruan)件(jian)(jian)(jian)項(xiang)目實施(shi)過(guo)程中缺乏(fa)必要的(de)(de)成員(yuan)(yuan)溝通，出(chu)現設計、代碼、測(ce)試、維(wei)護等方(fang)(fang)面的(de)(de)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)問題則很容(rong)易導(dao)致編(bian)程軟(ruan)件(jian)(jian)(jian)發(fa)生問題，影響(xiang)整(zheng)個軟(ruan)件(jian)(jian)(jian)的(de)(de)品質。

對編(bian)(bian)程軟(ruan)件(jian)進行(xing)(xing)風險規避分析正是面對上述情況而提出(chu)的，用于(yu)提升(sheng)軟(ruan)件(jian)產(chan)品魯棒(bang)性，降低軟(ruan)件(jian)開(kai)發(fa)過程所面臨的風險和損失的一種分析方(fang)法(fa)。該(gai)方(fang)法(fa)綜合(he)考(kao)慮編(bian)(bian)程軟(ruan)件(jian)開(kai)發(fa)過程中涉(she)及(ji)的多種相(xiang)關參數，制定(ding)合(he)理的管(guan)理策略對編(bian)(bian)程軟(ruan)件(jian)中的多種因(yin)素進行(xing)(xing)適當管(guan)理，降低或避免(mian)風險。

2 軟件開發(fa)風險(xian)規避步(bu)驟(zou)分析(xi)

在(zai)軟(ruan)件(jian)開發過程中進行風(feng)險(xian)(xian)規避主要通過風(feng)險(xian)(xian)識別、風(feng)險(xian)(xian)分析以及風(feng)險(xian)(xian)監控三個步(bu)驟完成(cheng)。

2.1 風險識別

該(gai)步驟主要(yao)集中在(zai)項目規(gui)劃(hua)和(he)開(kai)始階(jie)段(duan)。在(zai)項目建(jian)立初期(qi)，需(xu)要(yao)根據軟(ruan)件的屬(shu)性如功能、配置、需(xu)求等將項目的風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)進行分(fen)(fen)解和(he)構析(xi)，建(jian)立風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)資料庫，邀請與本軟(ruan)件開(kai)發相(xiang)關的專家(jia)、編程人員等根據軟(ruan)件應(ying)用范(fan)圍和(he)總體計劃(hua)等信息對軟(ruan)件開(kai)發生(sheng)命周期(qi)內的風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)來源和(he)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)種(zhong)類進行分(fen)(fen)析(xi)和(he)識別，進而(er)根據識別分(fen)(fen)析(xi)結果制定相(xiang)應(ying)的風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)規(gui)避計劃(hua)。

風險識別就是利用系統化分析方法對軟件(jian)開發項(xiang)目中影響比(bi)重大、發生(sheng)概率高等風險進(jin)行確(que)定(ding)，然后(hou)依照相關的(de)(de)風險管理經驗對風險的(de)(de)來源、等級、內容等進(jin)行分類(lei)，便(bian)于后(hou)續(xu)處理。

2.2 風險分析

在影(ying)響編(bian)(bian)程軟(ruan)件的(de)(de)多(duo)個風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因素(su)中，只有部分風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因素(su)是主要因素(su)，會對(dui)(dui)(dui)編(bian)(bian)程軟(ruan)件的(de)(de)整個開(kai)發(fa)進(jin)度產生(sheng)最(zui)直接、最(zui)重(zhong)要的(de)(de)影(ying)響。對(dui)(dui)(dui)編(bian)(bian)程軟(ruan)件開(kai)發(fa)項目進(jin)行風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)分析(xi)就是應用定性(xing)或定量(liang)的(de)(de)分析(xi)方(fang)法將識別到的(de)(de)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)進(jin)行分類(lei)，按(an)照不同風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因素(su)對(dui)(dui)(dui)軟(ruan)件項目開(kai)發(fa)的(de)(de)影(ying)響程度將其分為重(zhong)要、一般(ban)、不影(ying)響等多(duo)個類(lei)別，指(zhi)導(dao)后續風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)規(gui)避(bi)計(ji)劃的(de)(de)制定。

2.3 風險監控

風險監(jian)(jian)控就是利用所制(zhi)定的規避計劃對軟件編程(cheng)過程(cheng)進行監(jian)(jian)控和(he)管理，消除軟件開(kai)發風險對軟件項目帶來的不利影響。

3 編程軟件風險規(gui)避策(ce)略

1）確保開發(fa)所需資源。對(dui)編(bian)(bian)程(cheng)軟(ruan)(ruan)件開發(fa)最為重要(yao)的(de)是團隊核心開發(fa)人(ren)員的(de)儲(chu)備(bei)。為提高(gao)軟(ruan)(ruan)件開發(fa)的(de)抗風險能(neng)力應(ying)該采(cai)取一定的(de)措施(shi)和手段做好人(ren)員流動、離(li)職等風險的(de)準備(bei)和預防工作(zuo)，確保即便(bian)出現少量研發(fa)人(ren)員流失也(ye)能(neng)夠讓軟(ruan)(ruan)件編(bian)(bian)程(cheng)工作(zuo)處于正(zheng)常運轉狀態。其他(ta)如(ru)開發(fa)過(guo)程(cheng)的(de)文檔機制、硬件資源等對(dui)提升編(bian)(bian)程(cheng)軟(ruan)(ruan)件的(de)抗風險能(neng)力同(tong)樣具有重要(yao)作(zuo)用(yong)。

2）增強關(guan)(guan)鍵(jian)技(ji)術的(de)提前調研意識(shi)。軟(ruan)件(jian)(jian)編(bian)(bian)程(cheng)(cheng)最主要的(de)工作內容就是關(guan)(guan)鍵(jian)位置(zhi)和(he)關(guan)(guan)鍵(jian)技(ji)術的(de)編(bian)(bian)程(cheng)(cheng)實現(xian)。為降低(di)軟(ruan)件(jian)(jian)開發過(guo)程(cheng)(cheng)中(zhong)來(lai)自技(ji)術方面的(de)風險應該在軟(ruan)件(jian)(jian)編(bian)(bian)程(cheng)(cheng)過(guo)程(cheng)(cheng)中(zhong)及時(shi)首先(xian)相關(guan)(guan)技(ji)術實現(xian)信息(xi)，增強關(guan)(guan)鍵(jian)功能的(de)突破(po)能力(li)，避免合(he)作開發中(zhong)技(ji)術依賴為編(bian)(bian)程(cheng)(cheng)軟(ruan)件(jian)(jian)開發所帶(dai)來(lai)的(de)高(gao)風險和(he)高(gao)成(cheng)本。

3）制(zhi)定完善的(de)執行計劃(hua)。項(xiang)(xiang)目執行計劃(hua)書是控制(zhi)與調整編(bian)程(cheng)(cheng)軟(ruan)件研(yan)(yan)(yan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)方(fang)向、研(yan)(yan)(yan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)時間(jian)、研(yan)(yan)(yan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)內容(rong)等(deng)的(de)基(ji)準和依據。整個項(xiang)(xiang)目的(de)執行過程(cheng)(cheng)與計劃(hua)書相(xiang)匹配，并(bing)接受相(xiang)關監控人員的(de)監控。若出(chu)現(xian)項(xiang)(xiang)目時間(jian)、內容(rong)等(deng)的(de)變更(geng)則需要及時分析和總結出(chu)現(xian)變更(geng)的(de)原(yuan)因(yin)，制(zhi)定相(xiang)應的(de)糾正(zheng)策(ce)略，調整執行計劃(hua)，盡量消除編(bian)程(cheng)(cheng)軟(ruan)件開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)與執行計劃(hua)之間(jian)的(de)偏差，確保(bao)整個開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)過程(cheng)(cheng)處于可控狀(zhuang)態(tai)。

4）做好項目的跟蹤(zong)。在編程軟件(jian)開發過程中(zhong)應(ying)該對進度中(zhong)出現的各種數據進行記錄(lu)和跟蹤(zong)，在一(yi)段時期(qi)后對所(suo)記錄(lu)的資料進行整理和分析，從而進一(yi)步提(ti)高編程軟件(jian)的開發與管理水(shui)平，確保編程軟件(jian)所(suo)面(mian)臨的風險處于可(ke)控或可(ke)消除狀(zhuang)態。

5）建立和完善風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)應對策(ce)略(lve)(lve)。雖然采取必要的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)規避策(ce)略(lve)(lve)可(ke)(ke)以有效降低(di)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)發生的(de)(de)(de)(de)幾率，提升編程軟件的(de)(de)(de)(de)品(pin)質(zhi)，但是風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)還(huan)是存在可(ke)(ke)出(chu)(chu)現的(de)(de)(de)(de)。當風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)出(chu)(chu)現時應該根據風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)特征制定(ding)應對策(ce)略(lve)(lve)，采取預防(fang)措施，同(tong)時指定(ding)專(zhuan)門(men)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)責任人對風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)進行(xing)跟蹤和應對。風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)應對策(ce)略(lve)(lve)的(de)(de)(de)(de)指定(ding)原則應該是有效可(ke)(ke)行(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)，適用性較(jiao)強的(de)(de)(de)(de)，可(ke)(ke)以將具體(ti)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)轉化、分擔為多個可(ke)(ke)處理的(de)(de)(de)(de)解(jie)決方案(an)，或(huo)直接(jie)采取一定(ding)手段(duan)回避風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)，確(que)保編程軟件的(de)(de)(de)(de)進度(du)不受或(huo)承(cheng)受最低(di)限度(du)的(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)。

6）應用現代管理(li)(li)軟(ruan)(ruan)件(jian)對(dui)編程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)軟(ruan)(ruan)件(jian)項目進(jin)行風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)管理(li)(li)。鑒于風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)規避已經成為(wei)軟(ruan)(ruan)件(jian)編程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)過程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)中(zhong)需(xu)要(yao)考慮(lv)和注意的一個重點內容，故專門針對(dui)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)管理(li)(li)的軟(ruan)(ruan)件(jian)正在逐漸(jian)被應用到項目風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)管理(li)(li)中(zhong)。軟(ruan)(ruan)件(jian)企(qi)業(ye)，特別是中(zhong)小(xiao)軟(ruan)(ruan)件(jian)企(qi)業(ye)在進(jin)行編程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)軟(ruan)(ruan)件(jian)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)管理(li)(li)中(zhong)應該盡量將(jiang)軟(ruan)(ruan)件(jian)工(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)與風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)管理(li)(li)進(jin)行結合，促使(shi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)規避更加具(ju)體(ti)，更具(ju)針對(dui)性和可實施(shi)性，進(jin)而綜合提升編程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)軟(ruan)(ruan)件(jian)的抗(kang)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)能力。

參考文獻

[1]黃石(shi)磊.淺談軟件(jian)編程的(de)風(feng)險規避[J].科技創(chuang)新導報，2010（4）.

篇8

［關鍵詞］電(dian)網行(xing)業(ye)；業(ye)務外包風險；風險管理(li)

1深刻解讀，從研究(jiu)背景找尋關鍵驅動

一(yi)是(shi)(shi)(shi)戰(zhan)略優(you)先，內因外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)力驅(qu)使提高(gao)(gao)核(he)(he)心競爭(zheng)力。隨著中國(guo)發展(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)經濟(ji)新常態、依法治企(qi)(qi)、深化(hua)改革等(deng)(deng)社會(hui)趨勢以(yi)及(ji)電(dian)(dian)力體制(zhi)(zhi)改革等(deng)(deng)戰(zhan)略發展(zhan)，電(dian)(dian)網企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)迎(ying)來了發展(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)新機遇及(ji)新挑戰(zhan)。業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)是(shi)(shi)(shi)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)經營發展(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)重要策略，實(shi)施業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)，將(jiang)非核(he)(he)心業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)轉(zhuan)移出去，借(jie)助(zhu)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)部資(zi)源的(de)(de)(de)(de)優(you)勢來彌補和改善(shan)(shan)自己(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)弱勢，從(cong)而形成(cheng)并不(bu)斷強化(hua)核(he)(he)心競爭(zheng)力向著業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)更精、更專方(fang)向發展(zhan)。二(er)是(shi)(shi)(shi)前(qian)瞻預(yu)防(fang)，系統設計(ji)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)先期預(yu)防(fang)管(guan)理(li)。安全(quan)可靠運行(xing)(xing)(xing)是(shi)(shi)(shi)電(dian)(dian)網行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)首(shou)要要求(qiu)。電(dian)(dian)網企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)各個業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)單元，在(zai)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)策劃及(ji)準(zhun)備階段、實(shi)施階段、退出階段的(de)(de)(de)(de)各個環節，都存(cun)在(zai)著巨大(da)的(de)(de)(de)(de)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)。在(zai)充分調研國(guo)內外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)、行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)內外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)經驗(yan)基礎上(shang)，運用既(ji)科學先進(jin)又成(cheng)熟成(cheng)功的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)理(li)論(lun)和機制(zhi)(zhi)，將(jiang)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)控制(zhi)(zhi)在(zai)“未病”狀態，對電(dian)(dian)網行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)成(cheng)功推進(jin)具(ju)有(you)領(ling)航效應。三是(shi)(shi)(shi)問(wen)題解決，配(pei)套完善(shan)(shan)切實(shi)可行(xing)(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)體系機制(zhi)(zhi)。企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)將(jiang)非核(he)(he)心業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)，并不(bu)意味著一(yi)定能(neng)夠(gou)整合(he)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)部優(you)質資(zi)源，規避所(suo)有(you)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)，仍(reng)然存(cun)在(zai)許多(duo)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)需要辨(bian)識、評估及(ji)控制(zhi)(zhi)。業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)是(shi)(shi)(shi)促進(jin)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)發生(sheng)重大(da)變(bian)化(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)催(cui)化(hua)劑，因此需要企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)在(zai)開展(zhan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)同時，不(bu)能(neng)以(yi)包(bao)(bao)(bao)代管(guan)，必(bi)須結合(he)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)特(te)性，梳(shu)理(li)、分析電(dian)(dian)網行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)，并建立(li)配(pei)套完善(shan)(shan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)、切實(shi)可行(xing)(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理(li)體系及(ji)機制(zhi)(zhi)，為電(dian)(dian)網行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)核(he)(he)心競爭(zheng)力持續提高(gao)(gao)及(ji)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)順利實(shi)施保駕護航。

2切(qie)中(zhong)肯(ken)綮，為(wei)業務外(wai)包風險管理提供方法理論

為了(le)全(quan)面管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)外(wai)包(bao)的(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)，本(ben)文(wen)從風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)經典理(li)(li)(li)論(lun)(lun)、法律及行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)文(wen)獻、標(biao)桿(gan)(gan)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)成(cheng)功(gong)案(an)例和(he)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)實(shi)(shi)際等方(fang)(fang)(fang)面，結(jie)合(he)精(jing)益管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)工具(ju)FMEA等，經過大量理(li)(li)(li)論(lun)(lun)研(yan)究、案(an)例分析和(he)實(shi)(shi)地調(diao)研(yan)等，萃取風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)成(cheng)熟成(cheng)功(gong)的(de)(de)(de)方(fang)(fang)(fang)法論(lun)(lun)及最(zui)佳(jia)(jia)實(shi)(shi)踐，引(yin)導并規(gui)范公司相(xiang)關風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)模(mo)式(shi)在(zai)(zai)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)外(wai)包(bao)過程中(zhong)向(xiang)(xiang)外(wai)包(bao)單(dan)位(wei)延伸。第(di)一(yi)，COSO企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)框(kuang)架(jia)將風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)及內(nei)部控制(zhi)(zhi)雙雙納入其中(zhong)，它是一(yi)個(ge)多(duo)向(xiang)(xiang)的(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)復性(xing)(xing)過程，任何組(zu)(zu)件(jian)(jian)的(de)(de)(de)失效都能夠且確(que)實(shi)(shi)對(dui)其他組(zu)(zu)件(jian)(jian)造(zao)(zao)成(cheng)實(shi)(shi)質性(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)影響。COSO企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)框(kuang)架(jia)由內(nei)部環(huan)境、目(mu)標(biao)制(zhi)(zhi)定(ding)、事項識別、風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)評估、風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)反應、控制(zhi)(zhi)活動、信息和(he)溝通、監控等八個(ge)相(xiang)互關聯(lian)的(de)(de)(de)要素共同(tong)(tong)組(zu)(zu)成(cheng)，并貫穿在(zai)(zai)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)過程之中(zhong)，成(cheng)為完整的(de)(de)(de)閉環(huan)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)體系。第(di)二，《中(zhong)央企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)全(quan)面風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)指引(yin)》和(he)《企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)內(nei)部控制(zhi)(zhi)應用指引(yin)第(di)13號———業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)外(wai)包(bao)》等電(dian)(dian)網(wang)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)內(nei)外(wai)的(de)(de)(de)政策相(xiang)繼(ji)出臺，對(dui)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)外(wai)包(bao)的(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)進一(yi)步指明(ming)方(fang)(fang)(fang)向(xiang)(xiang)。第(di)三，針對(dui)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)外(wai)包(bao)開(kai)展成(cheng)功(gong)的(de)(de)(de)標(biao)桿(gan)(gan)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)，包(bao)括通信、電(dian)(dian)力、石(shi)油(you)、化工及電(dian)(dian)子和(he)汽(qi)車(che)制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)等不(bu)同(tong)(tong)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、不(bu)同(tong)(tong)性(xing)(xing)質的(de)(de)(de)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)進行(xing)(xing)(xing)了(le)調(diao)研(yan)分析，以(yi)掌握風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)方(fang)(fang)(fang)法理(li)(li)(li)論(lun)(lun)及政策制(zhi)(zhi)度在(zai)(zai)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)實(shi)(shi)踐運用情況，為實(shi)(shi)際運用奠(dian)定(ding)基礎(chu)。第(di)四，通過綜合(he)調(diao)研(yan)、專題調(diao)研(yan)等多(duo)種方(fang)(fang)(fang)式(shi)，在(zai)(zai)不(bu)同(tong)(tong)組(zu)(zu)織層面、不(bu)同(tong)(tong)職能及不(bu)同(tong)(tong)試點單(dan)位(wei)，充分了(le)解電(dian)(dian)網(wang)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)外(wai)包(bao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)現(xian)狀，總結(jie)歸納好的(de)(de)(de)方(fang)(fang)(fang)面予以(yi)推廣，明(ming)確(que)界定(ding)需要改進的(de)(de)(de)方(fang)(fang)(fang)面予以(yi)防范。整合(he)COSO企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)框(kuang)架(jia)、相(xiang)關法規(gui)及行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)文(wen)件(jian)(jian)、標(biao)桿(gan)(gan)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)最(zui)佳(jia)(jia)實(shi)(shi)踐及全(quan)方(fang)(fang)(fang)位(wei)調(diao)研(yan)等理(li)(li)(li)論(lun)(lun)依據構建業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)外(wai)包(bao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)機制(zhi)(zhi)模(mo)型。

3操(cao)(cao)作落地，整合理論實踐形成操(cao)(cao)作流(liu)程

為(wei)(wei)(wei)使業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)得(de)以操作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)落地，整合COSO風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)框架、《中(zhong)央企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)全(quan)面(mian)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)指(zhi)(zhi)引》、《企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)內(nei)(nei)部(bu)(bu)控(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)應(ying)(ying)(ying)用指(zhi)(zhi)引第(di)(di)13號———業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)》等相(xiang)(xiang)關(guan)體(ti)系及(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)等，制(zhi)(zhi)定(ding)(ding)(ding)了(le)電網(wang)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)操作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)流(liu)程(cheng)(cheng)，包(bao)(bao)(bao)括以下幾個(ge)(ge)方(fang)(fang)面(mian)：一(yi)(yi)是(shi)(shi)(shi)明確(que)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)目標(biao)(biao)。開(kai)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)要努力(li)實(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)現(xian)戰(zhan)略(lve)目標(biao)(biao)、合規(gui)目標(biao)(biao)、報(bao)告(gao)目標(biao)(biao)、經營(ying)(ying)目標(biao)(biao)和(he)(he)(he)(he)減災(zai)目標(biao)(biao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)落實(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。第(di)(di)一(yi)(yi)，應(ying)(ying)(ying)確(que)保(bao)(bao)將業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)控(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)在與(yu)總(zong)體(ti)戰(zhan)略(lve)目標(biao)(biao)相(xiang)(xiang)適(shi)應(ying)(ying)(ying)并(bing)(bing)(bing)可承(cheng)(cheng)受的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)范圍，不(bu)(bu)能(neng)僅為(wei)(wei)(wei)解(jie)(jie)決眼前的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)利益(yi)而(er)忽略(lve)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)長遠規(gui)劃(hua)。第(di)(di)二，確(que)保(bao)(bao)遵守有關(guan)法(fa)律(lv)法(fa)規(gui)。在法(fa)律(lv)框架范圍內(nei)(nei)規(gui)范加(jia)強(qiang)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)控(kong)(kong)(kong)是(shi)(shi)(shi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)有序推進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)要保(bao)(bao)障。第(di)(di)三，確(que)保(bao)(bao)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)與(yu)承(cheng)(cheng)包(bao)(bao)(bao)單(dan)位(wei)之(zhi)間就風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)控(kong)(kong)(kong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)措施(shi)得(de)到真實(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)、可靠及(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)有效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)落實(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，及(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)時(shi)了(le)解(jie)(jie)承(cheng)(cheng)包(bao)(bao)(bao)單(dan)位(wei)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)意見和(he)(he)(he)(he)需求，并(bing)(bing)(bing)把企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)各個(ge)(ge)政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)承(cheng)(cheng)包(bao)(bao)(bao)單(dan)位(wei)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)公開(kai)、透明地宣傳，消除(chu)(chu)溝通不(bu)(bu)暢帶來(lai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)不(bu)(bu)良因素。第(di)(di)四，確(que)保(bao)(bao)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)有關(guan)規(gui)章制(zhi)(zhi)度和(he)(he)(he)(he)措施(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)有效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)執行(xing)(xing)(xing)，確(que)保(bao)(bao)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)機制(zhi)(zhi)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)入(ru)一(yi)(yi)個(ge)(ge)連(lian)續不(bu)(bu)斷、循(xun)序漸(jian)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)累積、改進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)和(he)(he)(he)(he)提升的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)良性(xing)(xing)循(xun)環，確(que)保(bao)(bao)經營(ying)(ying)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)有效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)性(xing)(xing)。第(di)(di)五(wu)，確(que)保(bao)(bao)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)建立針對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)大(da)(da)(da)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)發生(sheng)后(hou)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)危機處(chu)理(li)(li)(li)計劃(hua)，保(bao)(bao)護企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)不(bu)(bu)因災(zai)害性(xing)(xing)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)或(huo)人(ren)為(wei)(wei)(wei)失(shi)誤等遭(zao)受重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)大(da)(da)(da)損失(shi)。二是(shi)(shi)(shi)開(kai)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)估。明確(que)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)目標(biao)(biao)后(hou)，企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)應(ying)(ying)(ying)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)收集的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)初始信息、外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)措施(shi)及(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)其(qi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)要流(liu)程(cheng)(cheng)等進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)估，包(bao)(bao)(bao)括風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)別(bie)、風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)、風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)三個(ge)(ge)步驟。第(di)(di)一(yi)(yi)，開(kai)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)別(bie)工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)，是(shi)(shi)(shi)指(zhi)(zhi)查(cha)找(zhao)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)各業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)單(dan)元、各項重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)要經營(ying)(ying)活(huo)(huo)動(dong)及(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)其(qi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)要業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)流(liu)程(cheng)(cheng)中(zhong)是(shi)(shi)(shi)否有風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，有哪些風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)應(ying)(ying)(ying)當重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)點關(guan)注并(bing)(bing)(bing)識(shi)別(bie)與(yu)電網(wang)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)緊密相(xiang)(xiang)關(guan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。第(di)(di)二，開(kai)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)，是(shi)(shi)(shi)根(gen)(gen)據(ju)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)發生(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)概率與(yu)危害程(cheng)(cheng)度，確(que)定(ding)(ding)(ding)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)大(da)(da)(da)小(xiao)(xiao)和(he)(he)(he)(he)主次，以有的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)放矢地制(zhi)(zhi)定(ding)(ding)(ding)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)措施(shi)。基于(yu)電網(wang)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)精益(yi)化管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)成(cheng)功實(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)踐，采用失(shi)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)模式分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)（FMEA）的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)方(fang)(fang)法(fa)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)，它是(shi)(shi)(shi)基于(yu)數據(ju)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)防(fang)控(kong)(kong)(kong)方(fang)(fang)法(fa)，目的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)在于(yu)識(shi)別(bie)及(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)評(ping)(ping)估一(yi)(yi)個(ge)(ge)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)（活(huo)(huo)動(dong)）在實(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)施(shi)過程(cheng)(cheng)中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)潛(qian)在失(shi)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)模式及(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)其(qi)影(ying)響，分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)如(ru)何消除(chu)(chu)或(huo)減少(shao)(shao)潛(qian)在失(shi)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)發生(sheng)，并(bing)(bing)(bing)找(zhao)出(chu)改善措施(shi)。計算方(fang)(fang)法(fa)為(wei)(wei)(wei)：風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)度（RPN）＝嚴重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)程(cheng)(cheng)度（SEV）×發生(sheng)頻數（OCC）×探測度（DET）。第(di)(di)三，開(kai)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)，是(shi)(shi)(shi)根(gen)(gen)據(ju)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)得(de)出(chu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)度值（RPN），評(ping)(ping)價(jia)該(gai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)實(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)現(xian)目標(biao)(biao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)響程(cheng)(cheng)度等，SEV大(da)(da)(da)于(yu)等于(yu)8或(huo)RPN大(da)(da)(da)于(yu)等于(yu)280的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)項目是(shi)(shi)(shi)高(gao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，RPN大(da)(da)(da)于(yu)等于(yu)120且小(xiao)(xiao)于(yu)280的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)項目是(shi)(shi)(shi)中(zhong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，RPN小(xiao)(xiao)于(yu)120的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)項目是(shi)(shi)(shi)低風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。三是(shi)(shi)(shi)采取風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)控(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)。根(gen)(gen)據(ju)自身條件和(he)(he)(he)(he)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)部(bu)(bu)環境(jing)，圍繞業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)目標(biao)(biao)，確(que)定(ding)(ding)(ding)合適(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)總(zong)體(ti)策(ce)(ce)略(lve)及(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)具體(ti)措施(shi)，并(bing)(bing)(bing)確(que)定(ding)(ding)(ding)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)所(suo)需人(ren)力(li)和(he)(he)(he)(he)財力(li)等的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)配(pei)置。第(di)(di)一(yi)(yi)，制(zhi)(zhi)定(ding)(ding)(ding)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)應(ying)(ying)(ying)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)策(ce)(ce)略(lve)。根(gen)(gen)據(ju)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)特(te)性(xing)(xing)，分(fen)(fen)別(bie)采取規(gui)避（終止）、減少(shao)(shao)（控(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)）、分(fen)(fen)擔（轉移(yi)）、接受（保(bao)(bao)持(chi)）四個(ge)(ge)策(ce)(ce)略(lve)（如(ru)表1所(suo)示(shi)）。第(di)(di)二，實(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)施(shi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)控(kong)(kong)(kong)方(fang)(fang)案。企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)應(ying)(ying)(ying)根(gen)(gen)據(ju)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)采取應(ying)(ying)(ying)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)策(ce)(ce)略(lve)，并(bing)(bing)(bing)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)每一(yi)(yi)項高(gao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)及(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)中(zhong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)制(zhi)(zhi)定(ding)(ding)(ding)具體(ti)解(jie)(jie)決方(fang)(fang)案，包(bao)(bao)(bao)括風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)控(kong)(kong)(kong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)具體(ti)目標(biao)(biao)、組織領導、管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)方(fang)(fang)式及(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)流(liu)程(cheng)(cheng)、所(suo)需條件和(he)(he)(he)(he)手段(duan)、風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)事(shi)件應(ying)(ying)(ying)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)策(ce)(ce)略(lve)及(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)具體(ti)措施(shi)、人(ren)財物(wu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)資源配(pei)置等。風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)控(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)應(ying)(ying)(ying)滿(man)足(zu)合規(gui)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)要求，堅持(chi)經營(ying)(ying)戰(zhan)略(lve)與(yu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)策(ce)(ce)略(lve)一(yi)(yi)致、風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)控(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)與(yu)運營(ying)(ying)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)率平(ping)衡的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)原(yuan)則，針對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)大(da)(da)(da)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)所(suo)涉(she)及(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)各個(ge)(ge)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)及(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)流(liu)程(cheng)(cheng)，制(zhi)(zhi)定(ding)(ding)(ding)涵蓋各個(ge)(ge)環節的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)全(quan)流(liu)程(cheng)(cheng)控(kong)(kong)(kong)制(zhi)(zhi)方(fang)(fang)案，并(bing)(bing)(bing)配(pei)以相(xiang)(xiang)應(ying)(ying)(ying)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)程(cheng)(cheng)序和(he)(he)(he)(he)政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)。四是(shi)(shi)(shi)實(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)施(shi)監督改進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)。企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)應(ying)(ying)(ying)以業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)大(da)(da)(da)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)大(da)(da)(da)事(shi)件和(he)(he)(he)(he)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)大(da)(da)(da)決策(ce)(ce)、重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)要管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)及(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)流(liu)程(cheng)(cheng)為(wei)(wei)(wei)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)點，定(ding)(ding)(ding)期對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)各職能(neng)部(bu)(bu)門(men)(men)和(he)(he)(he)(he)專業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)部(bu)(bu)門(men)(men)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)實(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)施(shi)情況和(he)(he)(he)(he)有效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)性(xing)(xing)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)檢(jian)驗，要根(gen)(gen)據(ju)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)手冊中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)應(ying)(ying)(ying)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)策(ce)(ce)略(lve)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)評(ping)(ping)估，對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)跨(kua)部(bu)(bu)門(men)(men)和(he)(he)(he)(he)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)單(dan)位(wei)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)控(kong)(kong)(kong)方(fang)(fang)案進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)，提出(chu)整改建議(yi)，出(chu)具評(ping)(ping)價(jia)和(he)(he)(he)(he)建議(yi)報(bao)告(gao)，及(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)時(shi)報(bao)送企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)高(gao)層或(huo)分(fen)(fen)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)高(gao)級管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)人(ren)員(yuan)。內(nei)(nei)審部(bu)(bu)門(men)(men)應(ying)(ying)(ying)至少(shao)(shao)每年一(yi)(yi)次，對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)職能(neng)部(bu)(bu)門(men)(men)、開(kai)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)有關(guan)部(bu)(bu)門(men)(men)和(he)(he)(he)(he)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)單(dan)位(wei)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)及(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)成(cheng)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)，進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)監督評(ping)(ping)價(jia)。

4結語

隨(sui)著電網企業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)內部(bu)依法治企和(he)電力體制(zhi)(zhi)改革(ge)等趨勢(shi)發展，外(wai)部(bu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)外(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)市場的(de)(de)(de)逐步(bu)成(cheng)熟(shu)和(he)專業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)分工的(de)(de)(de)不斷(duan)細(xi)化(hua)、深(shen)化(hua)，業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)外(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)將逐步(bu)成(cheng)為電網企業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)常用經營策(ce)略，同(tong)時業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)外(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)也(ye)給(gei)企業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)經營帶來風險(xian)，必(bi)須采取預(yu)防措施管(guan)控(kong)各業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)單(dan)元、各階(jie)段及(ji)各環節的(de)(de)(de)各類風險(xian)，建立和(he)完(wan)善業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)外(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)管(guan)理制(zhi)(zhi)度，規定業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)外(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)的(de)(de)(de)范(fan)圍、方式、條(tiao)件(jian)、程序和(he)實施等相關(guan)(guan)內容，明(ming)確相關(guan)(guan)部(bu)門和(he)監(jian)管(guan)人員的(de)(de)(de)職責權限，強化(hua)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)外(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)的(de)(de)(de)全(quan)過程監(jian)控(kong)，防范(fan)外(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)風險(xian)，充分發揮(hui)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)外(wai)包(bao)(bao)(bao)的(de)(de)(de)優(you)勢(shi)，支持電網行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)實現業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)發展的(de)(de)(de)集約化(hua)、體系化(hua)、法制(zhi)(zhi)化(hua)及(ji)精益(yi)化(hua)。

主要參考文獻

［1］國務院(yuan)國有(you)資(zi)產監(jian)督管理委員會．國資(zi)發改革［2006］108號(hao)《中(zhong)央企業全面(mian)風(feng)險管理指引》［S］.2006.

［2］中華(hua)人民(min)共和國財政(zheng)部．企(qi)業內部控制應用指引第(di)13號———業務外(wai)包(bao)［S］．2010.

［3］［英］保羅•霍(huo)普金（PaulHopkin）.風險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理：理解、評(ping)估和實施有(you)效的風險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理［M］.第2版.蔡榮右(you)，譯(yi).北京：中國鐵道出(chu)版社，2014.

［4］白世貞，國彥平，陳化(hua)飛.服務(wu)外包業(ye)務(wu)管理流程［M］.北(bei)京(jing)：化(hua)學工業(ye)出版社，2011.

［5］馬林，何楨.六西格瑪管理［M］.第2版.北京：中(zhong)國人民大學出版社，2013.

［6］李媛，王津(jin)培.企業(ye)業(ye)務外包風險控(kong)制探討［J］.經(jing)營(ying)管理者(zhe)，2013（12）.

篇9

關鍵詞：化妝(zhuang)品(pin)；新產品(pin)開發；風(feng)險管理(li)；風(feng)險評(ping)估模型；風(feng)險應對策略

一(yi)、化妝品新產品開發的風(feng)險識別(bie)

風(feng)險是指損失發生(sheng)的(de)(de)可能性及(ji)其影(ying)響程(cheng)度，它包含兩個變量，用公(gong)式可表(biao)示為：R=f（P，C）。式中，R代表(biao)風(feng)險值(zhi)(zhi)，P代表(biao)風(feng)險發生(sheng)的(de)(de)概(gai)率，C代表(biao)風(feng)險發生(sheng)的(de)(de)影(ying)響程(cheng)度。風(feng)險值(zhi)(zhi)的(de)(de)大小和它的(de)(de)變量成正比，概(gai)率或影(ying)響程(cheng)度越(yue)(yue)大，風(feng)險就(jiu)越(yue)(yue)高。

所謂風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理是指識別，度量風(feng)險(xian)，并采(cai)取(qu)有(you)效手段處理這(zhe)些風(feng)險(xian)的(de)(de)過程。化(hua)妝品的(de)(de)新產品開發風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理大致包括(kuo)幾個步(bu)驟：風(feng)險(xian)識別、風(feng)險(xian)評估以及風(feng)險(xian)對策(ce)。其中，風(feng)險(xian)識別是風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理的(de)(de)基礎。

（一）化妝(zhuang)品(pin)新產品(pin)開發的(de)風險來(lai)源

風(feng)險(xian)(xian)識別(bie)的(de)第(di)一步是要確定風(feng)險(xian)(xian)來自(zi)哪些領(ling)域。根據美國全國工業會議的(de)分(fen)析(xi)表明，導致新產品(pin)失敗(bai)的(de)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)因素(su)有：a市場(chang)(chang)分(fen)析(xi)不恰當；b成本超出預(yu)期值；c產品(pin)本身不好；d投(tou)放時間不當；e銷售(shou)阻礙；f銷售(shou)力(li)量(liang)、分(fen)銷和(he)促銷組織的(de)不好。根據以上經驗性(xing)資料(liao)分(fen)析(xi)，結合營銷理論和(he)化(hua)妝(zhuang)(zhuang)品(pin)開發特點，我(wo)們認為其(qi)中a，d，e，f屬市場(chang)(chang)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)，b和(he)c分(fen)別(bie)屬于財務和(he)技(ji)術風(feng)險(xian)(xian)；即化(hua)妝(zhuang)(zhuang)品(pin)新產品(pin)開發失敗(bai)的(de)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)主(zhu)要來自(zi)三個領(ling)域：市場(chang)(chang)、技(ji)術、財務。

（二）化妝品新產(chan)品開(kai)發的風險指標體系

在確定風(feng)險(xian)領域(yu)(yu)之(zhi)后(hou)，需要找到各(ge)風(feng)險(xian)領域(yu)(yu)內影響(xiang)新產品開發的(de)具體(ti)風(feng)險(xian)因素，建立風(feng)險(xian)指(zhi)標(biao)體(ti)系，完成風(feng)險(xian)識別的(de)目(mu)的(de)。化妝品的(de)新產品開發的(de)風(feng)險(xian)指(zhi)標(biao)體(ti)系（如下圖所示）：

二、 化妝品新產品開發(fa)的風險評估

化(hua)妝品(pin)新產(chan)(chan)品(pin)開(kai)發的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)估(gu)是對(dui)(dui)化(hua)妝品(pin)的(de)(de)新產(chan)(chan)品(pin)開(kai)發過程(cheng)中(zhong)各個(ge)(ge)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)子(zi)(zi)(zi)進行綜合判斷(duan)、分級、評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)等分析過程(cheng)，包括(kuo)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)估(gu)計和風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)兩個(ge)(ge)方面。風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)估(gu)計的(de)(de)對(dui)(dui)象(xiang)是單(dan)個(ge)(ge)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)子(zi)(zi)(zi)，通過定(ding)性或定(ding)量的(de)(de)方法得到(dao)各個(ge)(ge)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)子(zi)(zi)(zi)的(de)(de)發生概(gai)率和影(ying)響程(cheng)度，計算出風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)值，并按照各個(ge)(ge)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)子(zi)(zi)(zi)的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)值對(dui)(dui)其排序，從而找到(dao)關鍵(jian)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)，確定(ding)主要風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)領(ling)域(yu)。風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)針對(dui)(dui)的(de)(de)是新產(chan)(chan)品(pin)開(kai)發活(huo)動的(de)(de)整(zheng)(zheng)體風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)，它是在風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)估(gu)計的(de)(de)基礎上用一定(ding)的(de)(de)方法判斷(duan)出整(zheng)(zheng)體的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)水平(ping)，以便做出決策和措(cuo)施。在對(dui)(dui)化(hua)妝品(pin)新產(chan)(chan)品(pin)開(kai)發的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)中(zhong)，我們還(huan)加入了對(dui)(dui)主要風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)領(ling)域(yu)的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)水平(ping)的(de)(de)計算，為之后合理選(xuan)擇風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)對(dui)(dui)策提供(gong)更全面的(de)(de)依據。

（一）基于主觀評分法的(de)風(feng)險評估模(mo)型(xing)

主觀評分法的(de)特(te)點是(shi)定性(xing)與定量(liang)相結合，應用于模型建(jian)立的(de)第一(yi)步，即(ji)確定單個風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)。具體是(shi)指通過風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)識別(bie)找到開發流(liu)程中的(de)各(ge)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)因子之后，利用專家(jia)的(de)經驗或已(yi)知數(shu)據(ju)給(gei)出各(ge)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)因子在風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)開發各(ge)流(liu)程中的(de)發生(sheng)概(gai)率和影(ying)響程度，得到單個風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)值(zhi)。

在得到單個風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)值(zhi)之(zhi)后，以各風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)因子為縱向(xiang)，開發流(liu)程為橫向(xiang)，得到新產品開發的綜合評分表，計(ji)算出整體(ti)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)水平和主要(yao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)領域的風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)水平，完成風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)評估。

1．確定單個(ge)風(feng)險值(zhi)。假設有某(mou)個(ge)風(feng)險因子Ri，在某(mou)個(ge)開發流程中發生的(de)概率(lv)是pi，發生后的(de)影響程度是ci，風(feng)險值(zhi)是ri。

本文用數值定義法來描述(shu)各(ge)風險(xian)因子發生的概率和影(ying)響(xiang)程度(du)，并根(gen)據(ju)公式風險(xian)值=概率*影(ying)響(xiang)程度(du)來確(que)定各(ge)風險(xian)值（如下表(biao)）：

表1單個風險值計算

2．評(ping)(ping)價(jia)整(zheng)體風(feng)險(xian)水平(ping)。假設某(mou)產品開(kai)發活動有m個風(feng)險(xian)因子，必須(xu)經(jing)過n個開(kai)發流(liu)程L1，L2……Ln，則其綜合風(feng)險(xian)評(ping)(ping)分（如下表）：

該產(chan)品開(kai)發活動(dong)的(de)(de)(de)整(zheng)體(ti)風(feng)(feng)險水(shui)平(ping)t=r/rs，其中(zhong)rs是該活動(dong)的(de)(de)(de)最(zui)大風(feng)(feng)險權重值(zhi)，它的(de)(de)(de)值(zhi)等于(yu)表中(zhong)每格的(de)(de)(de)最(zui)大風(feng)(feng)險與風(feng)(feng)險值(zhi)個(ge)數的(de)(de)(de)乘積。

3．評價主要(yao)(yao)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)領(ling)域的風(feng)(feng)險(xian)水平。通過上表亦可得到各項風(feng)(feng)險(xian)因子按風(feng)(feng)險(xian)值(zhi)大小(xiao)的排序，從(cong)而找到主要(yao)(yao)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)領(ling)域。并(bing)以同(tong)樣(yang)的方法算出主要(yao)(yao)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)領(ling)域的風(feng)(feng)險(xian)水平。

（二）化妝品(pin)新(xin)產(chan)品(pin)開發(fa)的風險評估

某化妝品(pin)(pin)企業，擬開發一個新產品(pin)(pin)，專家經過對公司內外部(bu)環境的分析，得(de)到(dao)以下風險評價表：

上表(biao)中(zhong)，每格的(de)最大風(feng)險權重(zhong)是5*5=25，表(biao)中(zhong)無賦值(zhi)的(de)格子也無權重(zhong)，因此最大風(feng)險權重(zhong)rs=25*36=900，該(gai)活(huo)動整體風(feng)險總值(zhi)r=288。所(suo)以可得該(gai)新(xin)產品開發活(huo)動整體風(feng)險水平(ping)t=r/rs=288/900=0.32。

根據(ju)各風險因素(su)的風險值的大小，可將該新產品開發(fa)活動的風險做出排序（如下(xia)表）：

表4某化妝品企(qi)業風險(xian)因(yin)子排序

通過(guo)對該(gai)化(hua)妝(zhuang)品(pin)新(xin)產品(pin)開發風(feng)險(xian)的排(pai)序我們可(ke)以(yi)看到，排(pai)在首位的是來自市(shi)場的需求預(yu)測風(feng)險(xian)，其風(feng)險(xian)值(zhi)為69，遠高于其他風(feng)險(xian)。因此(ci)，對化(hua)妝(zhuang)品(pin)新(xin)產品(pin)開發而言，主要風(feng)險(xian)領域來自市(shi)場。根據上文(wen)同樣的計算方式(shi)，可(ke)算出市(shi)場風(feng)險(xian)的水(shui)平為0.59。

三、化妝品(pin)新產品(pin)開發的風險對策

（一）新產品開發風(feng)險(xian)應對策略(lve)的種類(lei)

風(feng)險(xian)應對是指通(tong)過對風(feng)險(xian)的(de)識別，評價和(he)估計，在考慮風(feng)險(xian)的(de)綜(zong)合(he)因(yin)素之后(hou)，提出合(he)理的(de)風(feng)險(xian)處置意(yi)見(jian)和(he)辦法。風(feng)險(xian)應對策略歸(gui)納起(qi)來(lai)有以下四種(zhong)：風(feng)險(xian)儲備、風(feng)險(xian)緩解、風(feng)險(xian)轉移(yi)和(he)風(feng)險(xian)回(hui)避(bi)。

1．風(feng)(feng)險(xian)儲備(bei)。風(feng)(feng)險(xian)儲備(bei)是指當風(feng)(feng)險(xian)值較(jiao)小，積(ji)(ji)極處理(li)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)的支出(chu)反而大(da)于風(feng)(feng)險(xian)損失(shi)本身時(shi)，關注(zhu)而不采取(qu)積(ji)(ji)極措施的一種風(feng)(feng)險(xian)應(ying)對策(ce)略。

2．風(feng)險(xian)(xian)緩解。風(feng)險(xian)(xian)緩解是一(yi)種主動、積極的(de)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)應對(dui)策略，是指通過(guo)各種手段降低風(feng)險(xian)(xian)因素發生的(de)概(gai)率，并使風(feng)險(xian)(xian)影響(xiang)程度降到最(zui)小。

3．風險轉(zhuan)移。風險轉(zhuan)移是(shi)將風險轉(zhuan)移至其他人或組織。其目的不是(shi)降低風險發(fa)生概率和減(jian)輕不利后果(guo)，而是(shi)通過(guo)合(he)同或協(xie)議，在風險事故(gu)發(fa)生時將損失的一部分轉(zhuan)移給有能力(li)承受(shou)或控制局勢(shi)的個人或組織。

4．風(feng)(feng)險回避。風(feng)(feng)險回避是(shi)指當風(feng)(feng)險值過大時，為了避免損失而選(xuan)擇(ze)放棄(qi)。雖(sui)然風(feng)(feng)險回避是(shi)一種消極的策略，但有時卻也是(shi)明智的選(xuan)擇(ze)。

不同的風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)應(ying)對策(ce)略(lve)應(ying)用于不同的風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)水平(ping)。將風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)評價的兩個維(wei)度，即整體風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)水平(ping)和主(zhu)要風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)領(ling)域的風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)水平(ping)與風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)水平(ping)基準進行比較，得到合理的應(ying)對策(ce)略(lve)（如下圖(tu)所示(shi)）。

圖(tu)2化(hua)妝品新產品開發的風險應對(dui)策(ce)略(lve)圖(tu)

圖中，①代(dai)表(biao)(biao)(biao)風險儲備;②代(dai)表(biao)(biao)(biao)風險緩(huan)解(jie);③代(dai)表(biao)(biao)(biao)風險轉移;④代(dai)表(biao)(biao)(biao)風險回避

（二）化妝品新(xin)產品開發的風險應對(dui)策略選擇

根(gen)據(ju)以往化妝(zhuang)品的新產品申報(bao)情況，可(ke)將整(zheng)體(ti)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)水(shui)(shui)平(ping)基(ji)準t0定為0.6。通過上文計算已得出(chu)，化妝(zhuang)品新產品開發的市(shi)場(chang)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)的水(shui)(shui)平(ping)為0.59，整(zheng)體(ti)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)水(shui)(shui)平(ping)為0.32。故(gu)，根(gen)據(ju)上圖，對于化妝(zhuang)品新產品開發，應采(cai)取風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)緩解和風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)轉移(yi)的方(fang)式來降低風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)。

參考文獻

[1] [美(mei)]加里·阿姆斯特朗，[美(mei)]菲(fei)利(li)普·科特勒(le)(le).科特勒(le)(le)市(shi)場營銷教(jiao)程:第(di)6版(ban)[M].俞(yu)利(li)軍，譯.北京:華夏出版(ban)社，2004.

 [2]李(li)五四，孟繁榮，雷培莉.市場(chang)營銷學[M].北京:機械工業出(chu)版社，2006.

[3]沈建明，鄭東良，閆植林.項目(mu)風險管理:第1版(ban)[M].北京:機(ji)械工(gong)業出版(ban)社，2004:1-24.

篇10

[關鍵詞] 風(feng)險 風(feng)險管理 安全(quan)生(sheng)產(chan)

一、引言

20世紀80年代(dai)中(zhong)期，自改革開放(fang)、實行市場經濟體制以來，國(guo)外各種(zhong)介紹(shao)風(feng)險管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)的理(li)(li)(li)論與書籍被介紹(shao)到中(zhong)國(guo)，風(feng)險管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)的課(ke)程已(yi)(yi)(yi)經逐步(bu)在走進大(da)學(xue)(xue)課(ke)堂。風(feng)險管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)教學(xue)(xue)、研究和應(ying)用開始(shi)(shi)起步(bu)，企業經營領域(yu)的風(feng)險管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)專著(zhu)開始(shi)(shi)面世，在許多大(da)型工程的建設過程中(zhong)，也已(yi)(yi)(yi)開始(shi)(shi)應(ying)用風(feng)險分(fen)析的理(li)(li)(li)論，風(feng)險管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)研究已(yi)(yi)(yi)成為(wei)管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)學(xue)(xue)科研究領域(yu)中(zhong)重要的課(ke)題(ti)。

風(feng)險(xian)(xian)管理力求(qiu)把風(feng)險(xian)(xian)導致的各(ge)種不利(li)后果減少到最低程度，使之正好符合有關(guan)方(fang)在時間和質(zhi)量方(fang)面(mian)的要求(qiu)。一(yi)方(fang)面(mian)，風(feng)險(xian)(xian)管理能促進(jin)決(jue)策的科學化(hua)、合理化(hua)、減少決(jue)策的風(feng)險(xian)(xian)性；另一(yi)方(fang)面(mian)，風(feng)險(xian)(xian)管理的實施可以使生產活(huo)動中面(mian)臨的風(feng)險(xian)(xian)損失降至最低。

目前我國大部(bu)分企業(ye)沒有專門(men)的(de)(de)人員或(huo)機構進行(xing)企業(ye)風險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)活動，每個人或(huo)部(bu)門(men)往(wang)(wang)往(wang)(wang)只(zhi)針對自(zi)己工作中(zhong)的(de)(de)風險(xian)(xian)獨立地采(cai)取一(yi)定對策，缺乏系(xi)(xi)統性、全(quan)局性。企業(ye)中(zhong)的(de)(de)風險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)基本上是一(yi)種被動式(shi)管(guan)(guan)理(li)；企業(ye)中(zhong)風險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)活動往(wang)(wang)往(wang)(wang)是間斷(duan)性的(de)(de)，缺乏系(xi)(xi)統、科(ke)學的(de)(de)風險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)理(li)論(lun)方法指導。

構(gou)建企(qi)業風險(xian)(xian)管理體系，是在對(dui)相(xiang)關信(xin)息采(cai)集的(de)基礎(chu)上(shang)，分析可(ke)能導致生產(chan)活動中(zhong)(zhong)出現風險(xian)(xian)的(de)根(gen)源(yuan)性(xing)因素，通(tong)過(guo)定性(xing)與(yu)定量(liang)相(xiang)結(jie)合的(de)方(fang)(fang)法(fa)發現企(qi)業各生產(chan)環(huan)節(jie)管理與(yu)運作(zuo)過(guo)程中(zhong)(zhong)的(de)潛在風險(xian)(xian)。充(chong)分重視企(qi)業風險(xian)(xian)管理，建立風險(xian)(xian)管理體系，并(bing)對(dui)風險(xian)(xian)分析的(de)理論方(fang)(fang)法(fa)進行全面、深入、細(xi)致的(de)研究，將(jiang)對(dui)成功(gong)實現企(qi)業目標(biao)，達到資源(yuan)的(de)優化(hua)配置起(qi)到重要的(de)理論指導作(zuo)用。

二、風(feng)險管理的(de)內涵

1.風險的含義

風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)和危(wei)(wei)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)是不(bu)同的(de)，風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)包含著(zhu)一(yi)(yi)種不(bu)確(que)定性，每個結果的(de)概率是可知或(huo)可以估計的(de)，而危(wei)(wei)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)則只意味著(zhu)一(yi)(yi)種不(bu)好的(de)預兆。因此，有時雖然有危(wei)(wei)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)存(cun)在(zai)，但不(bu)一(yi)(yi)定要(yao)冒此風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，我們要(yao)想方設法去改變(bian)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)發(fa)生的(de)條件(jian)，使之(zhi)不(bu)發(fa)生，甚至帶來轉機。綜上所述，可以這樣(yang)定義(yi)的(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)：風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)就是活動(dong)或(huo)事(shi)件(jian)消極的(de)，人們不(bu)希望的(de)后(hou)果發(fa)生的(de)潛(qian)在(zai)可能性。具體地(di)說，風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)一(yi)(yi)般應具備以下要(yao)素(su):(1)事(shi)件(jian)(不(bu)希望發(fa)生的(de)變(bian)化）;(2)事(shi)件(jian)發(fa)生具有不(bu)確(que)定性;(3)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)影響(后(hou)果）;(4)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)原因。

將風險表示為事(shi)件發生的(de)概率(lv)及(ji)其后(hou)果的(de)函數，即

R=f(P,C) （1）

式中(zhong)，R--風險，P-概率，C-后果。

風(feng)險和(he)不確定(ding)性(xing)(xing)是我們很容易混淆的(de)(de)概念：不確定(ding)性(xing)(xing)是客觀事(shi)(shi)物永(yong)遠發展變化(hua)的(de)(de)客觀特(te)性(xing)(xing)，是產生(sheng)風(feng)險的(de)(de)原因。雖(sui)然風(feng)險和(he)不確定(ding)性(xing)(xing)這兩個概念經常互(hu)相(xiang)使(shi)用(yong)，但它們并不是一回事(shi)(shi)。不確定(ding)性(xing)(xing)僅僅考慮(lv)事(shi)(shi)件(jian)(jian)發生(sheng)的(de)(de)肯定(ding)程(cheng)度(du)(du)，而風(feng)險則要考慮(lv)事(shi)(shi)件(jian)(jian)發生(sheng)后果(guo)的(de)(de)嚴重程(cheng)度(du)(du)。

不(bu)確定(ding)性(xing)在(zai)某(mou)些(xie)特定(ding)的情(qing)況(kuang)下并不(bu)完全是壞事(shi)，關(guan)鍵要看(kan)不(bu)確定(ding)性(xing)是在(zai)向著我們希望(wang)的方(fang)(fang)向發展，還(huan)是相反。再次(ci)說明(ming)，風險是針對(dui)不(bu)希望(wang)發生(sheng)的事(shi)件而言的，它(ta)包括以下兩個方(fang)(fang)面(mian):

(1)發生的可能(neng)性；

(2)一旦發(fa)生，后果(guo)的嚴重程度。

由(you)此知(zhi)道，有兩(liang)(liang)類事(shi)件(jian)(jian)的(de)風(feng)險性(xing)質(zhi)是沒(mei)有爭議的(de)，一(yi)類事(shi)件(jian)(jian)是“高可(ke)(ke)能性(xing)，嚴重后(hou)果(guo)”，對(dui)這類事(shi)件(jian)(jian)可(ke)(ke)以(yi)立即(ji)判(pan)定(ding)屬(shu)于(yu)高風(feng)險問題(ti)；另(ling)一(yi)類事(shi)件(jian)(jian)是“低可(ke)(ke)能性(xing)，輕微后(hou)果(guo)”，對(dui)這類事(shi)件(jian)(jian)我(wo)們可(ke)(ke)以(yi)立即(ji)判(pan)定(ding)屬(shu)于(yu)低風(feng)險問題(ti)。有兩(liang)(liang)類事(shi)件(jian)(jian)的(de)風(feng)險等(deng)級的(de)判(pan)定(ding)是容易引起爭議的(de)，它們是：

(1)高可能性，輕微(wei)后果；

(2)低(di)可能性，嚴重后果。

這兩類風(feng)險(xian)性質的(de)(de)判定(ding)與個人(ren)的(de)(de)主觀判斷有(you)(you)很大的(de)(de)關系(xi)，不(bu)同(tong)(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)人(ren)由于持(chi)有(you)(you)不(bu)同(tong)(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)立場(chang)、觀點，以及所處的(de)(de)環(huan)境不(bu)同(tong)(tong)(tong)，會(hui)有(you)(you)不(bu)同(tong)(tong)(tong)甚(shen)至(zhi)相反的(de)(de)判斷。圖中(zhong)的(de)(de)后(hou)果嚴重程度如果逐(zhu)步增大的(de)(de)話，人(ren)們在做出(chu)決(jue)定(ding)時(shi)會(hui)越(yue)猶豫，在這種情況(kuang)下，對項目風(feng)險(xian)等級的(de)(de)判定(ding)會(hui)更加依賴個人(ren)的(de)(de)解釋。這時(shi)，主管(guan)人(ren)員一方面要依靠不(bu)同(tong)(tong)(tong)領域的(de)(de)專家，另一方面也要做好準備，對判定(ding)風(feng)險(xian)問題作(zuo)最后(hou)的(de)(de)決(jue)斷。

2.風(feng)險管理的含義

風險(xian)管理涉及到各(ge)(ge)個(ge)行業，每個(ge)行業都有(you)其自(zi)身的(de)(de)特點(dian)，企業風險(xian)管理是(shi)指(zhi)生產過程中(zhong)，風險(xian)管理部門對(dui)可能遇到的(de)(de)各(ge)(ge)種風險(xian)因素(su)進行識別、分析、評估，以最低成本實現最大的(de)(de)安全保障的(de)(de)過程。

從(cong)表(biao)層(ceng)上分析(xi)，風(feng)險(xian)(xian)管理(li)(li)(li)就是(shi)對(dui)生產(chan)活(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)或行(xing)為中(zhong)的(de)(de)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)進行(xing)管理(li)(li)(li)，從(cong)深層(ceng)上研究，風(feng)險(xian)(xian)管理(li)(li)(li)是(shi)指主體通過(guo)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)識(shi)別、風(feng)險(xian)(xian)量化、風(feng)險(xian)(xian)評價等風(feng)險(xian)(xian)分析(xi)活(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)，對(dui)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)進行(xing)規劃(hua)、控制、監督，從(cong)而增(zeng)大(da)應對(dui)威脅的(de)(de)機會(hui)，以成(cheng)功地(di)完成(cheng)并(bing)實現總目(mu)標。風(feng)險(xian)(xian)管理(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)主體是(shi)管理(li)(li)(li)人(ren)員，客體是(shi)生產(chan)活(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)中(zhong)的(de)(de)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)或不確定性，大(da)型、復雜的(de)(de)生產(chan)活(huo)(huo)動(dong)(dong)過(guo)程應設置(zhi)專門的(de)(de)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)管理(li)(li)(li)機構和相應的(de)(de)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)負責人(ren)。

風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管理(li)是一個過程(cheng)，由(you)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)識別、量化、評(ping)價(jia)、控制、監督等(deng)(deng)過程(cheng)組成(cheng)，通過計劃、組織(zhi)、指揮、控制等(deng)(deng)職能，綜合(he)運用各(ge)種科學方法來保證生產活動順利完(wan)成(cheng)；風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管理(li)技術的(de)選(xuan)擇要(yao)符合(he)經濟(ji)性原則,充分體現風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)成(cheng)本效(xiao)益關系(xi)，不是技術越高越好(hao)，而是合(he)理(li)優化達到最佳，制定風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管理(li)策(ce)略,科學規避風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)；風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管理(li)具有生命周期(qi)性，在實施過程(cheng)的(de)每一階段，均應(ying)進行風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管理(li),應(ying)根據風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)變化狀況及時調險(xian)(xian)應(ying)對策(ce)略，實現全生命周期(qi)的(de)動態風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管理(li)。

三、風(feng)險管(guan)理(li)過(guo)程及方法

風(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理過程(cheng)包括風(feng)(feng)險(xian)規劃、風(feng)(feng)險(xian)識別(bie)、風(feng)(feng)險(xian)評價(jia)、風(feng)(feng)險(xian)處理和風(feng)(feng)險(xian)監控幾個階段：

1.風險規劃

風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)規劃(hua)(hua)，指(zhi)決(jue)定(ding)如何(he)著手進行風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)活動的(de)過程(cheng)。風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)規劃(hua)(hua)確定(ding)一套(tao)完整全面有機配(pei)合、協調一致的(de)策略和(he)(he)方(fang)法并將風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)其形成文件的(de)過程(cheng)，這套(tao)策略和(he)(he)方(fang)法用于(yu)識別和(he)(he)跟蹤風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)區；擬定(ding)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)緩解(jie)方(fang)案；進行持續的(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)評估，從(cong)而(er)確定(ding)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)變化情況并配(pei)置充足的(de)資源。在進行風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)規劃(hua)(hua)時，主要考慮的(de)因(yin)素有：風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)策略、預定(ding)義角色和(he)(he)指(zhi)責、各項風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)容(rong)忍度、工(gong)作分解(jie)結構、風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)指(zhi)標體系(xi)。

規(gui)劃開始時，我們要(yao)(yao)制定(ding)風險管理(li)策略并形成文件。早期的(de)(de)工(gong)作是：確(que)(que)定(ding)目的(de)(de)和目標；明(ming)(ming)確(que)(que)具體區域(yu)的(de)(de)職責；明(ming)(ming)確(que)(que)需要(yao)(yao)補充的(de)(de)技術專業，規(gui)定(ding)評估過程(cheng)和需要(yao)(yao)考(kao)慮的(de)(de)區域(yu)；規(gui)定(ding)選(xuan)擇處理(li)方案的(de)(de)程(cheng)序；規(gui)定(ding)評級圖(tu)；確(que)(que)定(ding)報(bao)告(gao)(gao)和文檔(dang)需求，規(gui)定(ding)報(bao)告(gao)(gao)要(yao)(yao)求和監控衡量標準。如有可能(neng)，還要(yao)(yao)明(ming)(ming)確(que)(que)如何評價潛在資源的(de)(de)能(neng)力。

風(feng)(feng)險規劃過(guo)(guo)程的(de)(de)運行(xing)機(ji)制是為風(feng)(feng)險管(guan)理過(guo)(guo)程提供(gong)方法、技巧、工(gong)具或其(qi)他手段、定(ding)量(liang)的(de)(de)目(mu)(mu)標(biao)(biao)、應(ying)對策(ce)略(lve)、選(xuan)擇(ze)標(biao)(biao)準(zhun)和風(feng)(feng)險數(shu)(shu)據庫。其(qi)中，定(ding)量(liang)的(de)(de)目(mu)(mu)標(biao)(biao)表示(shi)了量(liang)化的(de)(de)目(mu)(mu)標(biao)(biao)；應(ying)對策(ce)略(lve)有(you)助于確定(ding)應(ying)對風(feng)(feng)險的(de)(de)可(ke)選(xuan)擇(ze)方式；選(xuan)擇(ze)標(biao)(biao)準(zhun)指在(zai)風(feng)(feng)險規劃過(guo)(guo)程中制定(ding)策(ce)略(lve)；風(feng)(feng)險數(shu)(shu)據庫包含歷(li)史(shi)風(feng)(feng)險信息(xi)和風(feng)(feng)險行(xing)動(dong)計劃等。

風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)(li)計(ji)劃(hua)(hua)在風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)規劃(hua)(hua)中起(qi)控(kong)制作用。風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)(li)計(ji)劃(hua)(hua)要(yao)說明如何(he)把風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)分析和(he)管(guan)理(li)(li)步(bu)驟應用到(dao)項目之中。該(gai)文件詳細(xi)的(de)(de)(de)說明風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識別、風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評估、風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)處理(li)(li)和(he)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)監控(kong)的(de)(de)(de)所有(you)方面。風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)(li)計(ji)劃(hua)(hua)還要(yao)說明項目整體(ti)評價的(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)基準(zhun)是什么，應當(dang)使用什么樣的(de)(de)(de)方法以及如何(he)參(can)照這些風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評價基準(zhun)對(dui)項目整體(ti)進行評價。

2.風險識別

風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)別(bie)是風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管理(li)的(de)第一步，即識(shi)(shi)別(bie)實施過程(cheng)中可能遇到（面臨(lin)的(de)、潛在的(de)）的(de)所有風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)源和(he)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)因素(su)，對(dui)它們的(de)特性進(jin)行(xing)判斷(duan)、歸(gui)類，并(bing)鑒定(ding)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)性質。風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)別(bie)的(de)目的(de)是減少的(de)結構不確(que)(que)定(ding)性。亦即發現引起風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)主要(yao)因素(su)，并(bing)對(dui)其影響后果(guo)做出(chu)定(ding)性的(de)估計(ji)。該步驟需要(yao)明確(que)(que)兩個(ge)問題：明確(que)(que)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)來自何(he)方（確(que)(que)定(ding)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)源），并(bing)對(dui)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)事項進(jin)行(xing)分類；對(dui)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)源進(jin)行(xing)初(chu)步量(liang)化。

風(feng)險(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)識(shi)別(bie)是風(feng)險(xian)管理的(de)(de)(de)(de)基(ji)礎，應是一(yi)項持續性、反復作(zuo)業的(de)(de)(de)(de)過(guo)程和工作(zuo)。因(yin)為風(feng)險(xian)具有可變(bian)(bian)性、不(bu)確定(ding)性，任何條件(jian)和環(huan)境的(de)(de)(de)(de)變(bian)(bian)化都(dou)可能會改變(bian)(bian)原有風(feng)險(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)性質并產生新的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)險(xian)。對(dui)風(feng)險(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)識(shi)別(bie)不(bu)僅要(yao)通過(guo)感性認識(shi)和經驗進(jin)行(xing)判斷，更重要(yao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)是必(bi)須依靠對(dui)各種(zhong)客觀統(tong)計資料(liao)和風(feng)險(xian)記錄進(jin)行(xing)分析、歸納和整(zheng)理，從而發現各種(zhong)風(feng)險(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)特征及規律。

常用的風(feng)險識別方(fang)法(fa)(fa)有：專家調查法(fa)(fa)（頭腦(nao)風(feng)暴法(fa)(fa)、德爾菲法(fa)(fa)、訪談法(fa)(fa)、問(wen)卷(juan)調查法(fa)(fa)）、情景分析(xi)法(fa)(fa)、故障樹分析(xi)法(fa)(fa)等。

我們簡(jian)單介紹一(yi)(yi)下目前應用(yong)廣(guang)泛的(de)(de)(de)故(gu)障(zhang)樹(shu)方(fang)法(fa)(fa)。故(gu)障(zhang)樹(shu)方(fang)法(fa)(fa)簡(jian)稱FTA，是(shi)用(yong)于大(da)型復雜系(xi)統可(ke)靠性和(he)安全性分析的(de)(de)(de)一(yi)(yi)個有力工具(ju)。利(li)用(yong)FTA來分析一(yi)(yi)個系(xi)統時，我們關(guan)心(xin)的(de)(de)(de)是(shi)找出(chu)造成某(mou)個不(bu)希望(wang)的(de)(de)(de)事(shi)(shi)件(jian)（頂(ding)端事(shi)(shi)件(jian)）發(fa)生的(de)(de)(de)各種可(ke)能(neng)原因，FTA使(shi)(shi)用(yong)演繹的(de)(de)(de)方(fang)法(fa)(fa)找出(chu)使(shi)(shi)頂(ding)端事(shi)(shi)件(jian)發(fa)生的(de)(de)(de)可(ke)能(neng)的(de)(de)(de)次級(ji)事(shi)(shi)件(jian)，反映了各次級(ji)事(shi)(shi)件(jian)引起頂(ding)端事(shi)(shi)件(jian)發(fa)生的(de)(de)(de)邏輯關(guan)系(xi)，這種關(guan)系(xi)用(yong)圖形表示出(chu)來就(jiu)像一(yi)(yi)顆以頂(ding)端事(shi)(shi)件(jian)為(wei)根的(de)(de)(de)倒(dao)長著(zhu)的(de)(de)(de)樹(shu)，故(gu)障(zhang)樹(shu)因此得名。

3.風險分析和評價

風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)分析(xi)(xi)(xi)和(he)(he)評(ping)價是在(zai)對(dui)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)進行識(shi)(shi)別(bie)的(de)(de)基(ji)礎(chu)上，對(dui)識(shi)(shi)別(bie)出的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)采用(yong)定(ding)性分析(xi)(xi)(xi)和(he)(he)定(ding)量分析(xi)(xi)(xi)相結合的(de)(de)方法(fa)，估計風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)發生(sheng)的(de)(de)概(gai)率、風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)范圍、風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)嚴重程度(du)（大(da)(da)小(xiao)）、變(bian)化幅度(du)、分布情況(kuang)、持續時間和(he)(he)頻度(du)，從而找到(dao)影響安(an)全的(de)(de)主要(yao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)源(yuan)和(he)(he)關鍵風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因素，確定(ding)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)區域、風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)排序和(he)(he)可接(jie)受的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)基(ji)準。在(zai)分析(xi)(xi)(xi)和(he)(he)評(ping)價風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)時，既要(yao)考慮(lv)(lv)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)所致損失(shi)的(de)(de)大(da)(da)小(xiao)，又要(yao)考慮(lv)(lv)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)發生(sheng)的(de)(de)概(gai)率，由此衡(heng)量風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)嚴重性。

風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)分(fen)(fen)析和(he)(he)評(ping)(ping)價的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)目的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)是將各種(zhong)數據轉化(hua)成可為決(jue)策(ce)(ce)者提供決(jue)策(ce)(ce)支持(chi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)信息，進(jin)而對各風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)事(shi)(shi)件后果進(jin)行評(ping)(ping)價，并確(que)(que)定(ding)其(qi)嚴(yan)重(zhong)程度排序(xu)。在確(que)(que)定(ding)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)價準(zhun)(zhun)則(ze)和(he)(he)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)決(jue)策(ce)(ce)準(zhun)(zhun)則(ze)后，可從決(jue)策(ce)(ce)角度評(ping)(ping)定(ding)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)(ying)響，計算(suan)出(chu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)對決(jue)策(ce)(ce)準(zhun)(zhun)則(ze)影(ying)(ying)響的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)度量(liang)(liang)，由此確(que)(que)定(ding)可否接(jie)(jie)受(shou)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，或(huo)者選(xuan)擇控制風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)方法，降低或(huo)轉移風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。在分(fen)(fen)析和(he)(he)評(ping)(ping)價風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)損(sun)(sun)(sun)(sun)失(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)嚴(yan)重(zhong)性時應注(zhu)意風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)損(sun)(sun)(sun)(sun)失(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)相對性，即(ji)在分(fen)(fen)析和(he)(he)評(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)損(sun)(sun)(sun)(sun)失(shi)(shi)時，不(bu)僅要(yao)正(zheng)確(que)(que)估(gu)(gu)計損(sun)(sun)(sun)(sun)失(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)絕對量(liang)(liang)，而且要(yao)估(gu)(gu)計組織對可能發(fa)生(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)損(sun)(sun)(sun)(sun)失(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)承受(shou)力(li)。在確(que)(que)定(ding)損(sun)(sun)(sun)(sun)失(shi)(shi)嚴(yan)重(zhong)性的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)過(guo)程中(zhong)，必(bi)須考慮(lv)每一(yi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)事(shi)(shi)件和(he)(he)所(suo)有(you)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)事(shi)(shi)件可能產生(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)所(suo)有(you)類(lei)型(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)損(sun)(sun)(sun)(sun)失(shi)(shi)及(ji)其(qi)對主體的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)綜合影(ying)(ying)響，既要(yao)考慮(lv)直(zhi)接(jie)(jie)損(sun)(sun)(sun)(sun)失(shi)(shi)、有(you)形(xing)損(sun)(sun)(sun)(sun)失(shi)(shi)，也要(yao)考慮(lv)間(jian)接(jie)(jie)損(sun)(sun)(sun)(sun)失(shi)(shi)、無形(xing)損(sun)(sun)(sun)(sun)失(shi)(shi)。風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)影(ying)(ying)響與損(sun)(sun)(sun)(sun)失(shi)(shi)發(fa)生(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)時間(jian)、持(chi)續時間(jian)、頻度密(mi)切相關(guan)，這些因素對安(an)全生(sheng)產的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)(ying)響至關(guan)重(zhong)要(yao)。

風險(xian)分(fen)析和評價的方(fang)法(fa)主要有：專家打分(fen)法(fa)、蒙(meng)特卡羅模(mo)擬法(fa)、概率分(fen)布(bu)的疊加模(mo)型（CIMM模(mo)型）、隨(sui)機網絡法(fa)、風險(xian)影響圖分(fen)析法(fa)、風險(xian)當量法(fa)等。

4.風險處理

風險(xian)處(chu)理就是對風險(xian)提出(chu)(chu)處(chu)置(zhi)意見和辦法。通過(guo)對風險(xian)識別、估計(ji)和評(ping)價，把(ba)風險(xian)發生(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)概率、損失(shi)嚴(yan)重程度(du)以及(ji)其(qi)他因素綜合起來考慮，就可(ke)得出(chu)(chu)發生(sheng)各種(zhong)風險(xian)的(de)(de)(de)可(ke)能(neng)性及(ji)其(qi)危害程度(du)，再與公認的(de)(de)(de)安全指標相比(bi)較，就可(ke)確(que)定的(de)(de)(de)危險(xian)等(deng)級(ji)，從而(er)決定采(cai)取什么(me)樣的(de)(de)(de)措施以及(ji)控制措施應采(cai)取到什么(me)程度(du)。有效處(chu)理風險(xian)，可(ke)以從改變風險(xian)后(hou)果的(de)(de)(de)性質、風險(xian)發生(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)概率或風險(xian)后(hou)果大(da)小三(san)個方面提出(chu)(chu)多種(zhong)策略。

5.風險監控

風(feng)險(xian)(xian)監控(kong)就是(shi)(shi)通過對(dui)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)識別、估(gu)計、評(ping)(ping)價、處理全過程(cheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)監視(shi)和(he)(he)(he)控(kong)制(zhi)，從而(er)保證風(feng)險(xian)(xian)管理能(neng)達到預(yu)期(qi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)目(mu)(mu)標。監控(kong)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)實(shi)際(ji)上是(shi)(shi)監控(kong)生產(chan)活(huo)動的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)進展(zhan)和(he)(he)(he)環境，即情況的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)變化，其(qi)目(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)是(shi)(shi)：核對(dui)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)管理策略(lve)(lve)和(he)(he)(he)措施(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)實(shi)際(ji)效(xiao)果是(shi)(shi)否與預(yu)見的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)相同；尋找機會改善和(he)(he)(he)細化風(feng)險(xian)(xian)控(kong)制(zhi)計劃，獲取反饋信息，以便將來的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)決(jue)策更符合實(shi)際(ji)。在(zai)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)監控(kong)過程(cheng)中，及(ji)時(shi)(shi)發現那些(xie)新出現的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)以及(ji)預(yu)先制(zhi)定的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)策略(lve)(lve)或措施(shi)(shi)不見效(xiao)或性質隨著時(shi)(shi)間的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)推延(yan)而(er)發生變化的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)，然后及(ji)時(shi)(shi)反饋，并根據對(dui)生產(chan)活(huo)動的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影響程(cheng)度，重(zhong)新進行風(feng)險(xian)(xian)識別、估(gu)計、評(ping)(ping)價和(he)(he)(he)處理，同時(shi)(shi)還應對(dui)每(mei)一風(feng)險(xian)(xian)事件(jian)制(zhi)定成敗標準(zhun)和(he)(he)(he)判據。

風(feng)險(xian)監(jian)(jian)控(kong)還沒有一套公認(ren)的(de)技(ji)術可供(gong)使(shi)用，由于風(feng)險(xian)具有復雜性(xing)、變動性(xing)、突發性(xing)、超前性(xing)等(deng)特點，風(feng)險(xian)監(jian)(jian)控(kong)應該圍繞(rao)風(feng)險(xian)的(de)基本問題，制定(ding)科學的(de)風(feng)險(xian)監(jian)(jian)控(kong)標準，采用系(xi)統的(de)管理(li)方法，建立有效(xiao)的(de)風(feng)險(xian)預警系(xi)統，做好(hao)應急(ji)計劃，實施(shi)高效(xiao)的(de)風(feng)險(xian)監(jian)(jian)控(kong)。

風險(xian)(xian)監(jian)控應是(shi)一(yi)(yi)個(ge)連續的(de)過程，它(ta)的(de)任(ren)務(wu)是(shi)根據整個(ge)（風險(xian)(xian)）管理(li)(li)過程規定的(de)衡量標(biao)準，全(quan)面(mian)跟蹤并評價(jia)風險(xian)(xian)處理(li)(li)活動的(de)執行情(qing)況(kuang)。有效的(de)風險(xian)(xian)監(jian)控工(gong)作可以(yi)指(zhi)出風險(xian)(xian)處理(li)(li)活動有無不正(zheng)常(chang)之處，哪(na)些風險(xian)(xian)正(zheng)在成為實際問題，掌(zhang)握了這些情(qing)況(kuang)，管理(li)(li)部門就(jiu)有充裕的(de)時間采取糾正(zheng)措施(shi)。同時，建立一(yi)(yi)套(tao)管理(li)(li)指(zhi)標(biao)體系，使之能以(yi)明確(que)易懂的(de)形式提(ti)供準確(que)、及時而(er)關(guan)系密切的(de)風險(xian)(xian)信息，是(shi)進行風險(xian)(xian)監(jian)控的(de)關(guan)鍵所在。

風險監(jian)控的主要方法有：審核檢查法、監(jian)視單、風險報告等。

四、總結

風(feng)險(xian)管理(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)是一(yi)個全壽(shou)(shou)命的(de)(de)動態過(guo)程，與管理(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)四個階(jie)段(duan)，即啟動、規劃、實(shi)施和結束(shu)階(jie)段(duan)密切結合，滲透在壽(shou)(shou)命周期的(de)(de)全過(guo)程之中。在企業(ye)有效開展風(feng)險(xian)管理(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)能夠促進各單(dan)位決策(ce)的(de)(de)科學(xue)化、合理(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)化，減少決策(ce)的(de)(de)風(feng)險(xian)性，能為企業(ye)提供安全的(de)(de)經營(ying)環(huan)境，能夠保(bao)障企業(ye)經營(ying)目標(biao)的(de)(de)順利實(shi)現，能夠促進企業(ye)經營(ying)效益的(de)(de)提高。無論(lun)從(cong)理(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)論(lun)還是從(cong)實(shi)踐(jian)的(de)(de)角度(du)來說，大(da)膽(dan)創新、探索性地恰(qia)當(dang)運用風(feng)險(xian)管理(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)理(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)論(lun)與方法(fa)，已成為關注的(de)(de)一(yi)個熱點(dian)，對于提升企業(ye)管理(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)水平、加強(qiang)安全保(bao)障、創造更好的(de)(de)經濟效益具有十分重(zhong)要的(de)(de)意(yi)義(yi)。

參考文獻:

[1]符志(zhi)明(ming):航天(tian)風(feng)險管(guan)理[M].北京(jing)：機械工業出版社，2005.1