摘(zhai)要：風險(xian)(xian)投(tou)資具(ju)有高風險(xian)(xian)、高收(shou)益等(deng)特點，其在我(wo)國高新技術持續(xu)發展的(de)(de)過程中(zhong)(zhong)起(qi)到了(le)(le)非(fei)常大的(de)(de)作用。本文分析(xi)了(le)(le)風險(xian)(xian)投(tou)資中(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)各方面風險(xian)(xian)因素，論述了(le)(le)風險(xian)(xian)識別(bie)與(yu)風險(xian)(xian)評價的(de)(de)主要內容，并在此(ci)基礎(chu)上提出(chu)了(le)(le)風險(xian)(xian)投(tou)資的(de)(de)具(ju)體風險(xian)(xian)控制策略，以供相關人員(yuan)參(can)考。

關鍵詞(ci)：風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)投資;風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)識別;風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評價;風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)控制;風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)轉移

風(feng)險(xian)(xian)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)又叫做創業投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)，主要(yao)為風(feng)險(xian)(xian)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)提供相應的(de)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金等(deng)支持。實(shi)質來講，風(feng)險(xian)(xian)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)與普通項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)之間并沒有(you)較(jiao)大差異(yi)，它是在近些年科學技(ji)術快(kuai)速發展(zhan)的(de)基礎上形(xing)成的(de)產物(wu)。風(feng)險(xian)(xian)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)大都無擔保(bao)(bao)與抵押，主要(yao)是針對高新技(ji)術領域的(de)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)，通常需要(yao)面(mian)臨較(jiao)大的(de)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)，而也因(yin)此(ci)能夠獲(huo)得相對較(jiao)高的(de)收益(yi)(yi)。風(feng)險(xian)(xian)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)大都需要(yao)較(jiao)多資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金投(tou)(tou)(tou)入，并且項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金的(de)流動性(xing)不強(qiang)，投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)期限也相對較(jiao)長(chang)，屬于中長(chang)期積極性(xing)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)。因(yin)此(ci)，為充分(fen)保(bao)(bao)證自身收益(yi)(yi)，風(feng)險(xian)(xian)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)企業必須對投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)采(cai)取合理的(de)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)識(shi)別、評價以(yi)及(ji)控制等(deng)措(cuo)施。

1風險投資(zi)中(zhong)的主要風險類型(xing)

1.1市(shi)場(chang)(chang)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。在(zai)(zai)(zai)新(xin)(xin)時(shi)期市(shi)場(chang)(chang)經濟中(zhong)(zhong)，各種產(chan)品(pin)(pin)都具(ju)(ju)有(you)盈或(huo)(huo)虧(kui)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)可能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)性(xing)(xing)(xing)和(he)不(bu)(bu)確(que)定(ding)性(xing)(xing)(xing)，這給風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)投(tou)資(zi)帶(dai)來一定(ding)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)素。市(shi)場(chang)(chang)環(huan)(huan)境瞬息萬(wan)變，其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)蘊含著諸多(duo)不(bu)(bu)確(que)定(ding)性(xing)(xing)(xing)，并且產(chan)品(pin)(pin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)需求也具(ju)(ju)有(you)較(jiao)(jiao)強的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)不(bu)(bu)確(que)定(ding)性(xing)(xing)(xing)[1]，同時(shi)，新(xin)(xin)產(chan)品(pin)(pin)從投(tou)入(ru)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)到(dao)被(bei)消費者接受(shou)所(suo)(suo)需時(shi)間也具(ju)(ju)有(you)較(jiao)(jiao)強的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)不(bu)(bu)確(que)定(ding)性(xing)(xing)(xing)。盡(jin)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)部分產(chan)品(pin)(pin)具(ju)(ju)有(you)較(jiao)(jiao)高(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)含量，但在(zai)(zai)(zai)一定(ding)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)環(huan)(huan)境中(zhong)(zhong)，并不(bu)(bu)受(shou)消費者青睞。1.2技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)投(tou)資(zi)中(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)素是(shi)(shi)(shi)指在(zai)(zai)(zai)進(jin)行高(gao)新(xin)(xin)技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)產(chan)品(pin)(pin)創造(zao)(zao)方面(mian)(mian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)投(tou)資(zi)過程(cheng)中(zhong)(zhong)，因(yin)技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)因(yin)素而(er)造(zao)(zao)成(cheng)(cheng)產(chan)品(pin)(pin)研(yan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)失(shi)(shi)敗(bai)后(hou)無法實現(xian)批(pi)量化(hua)生(sheng)產(chan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)可能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)性(xing)(xing)(xing)。技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)是(shi)(shi)(shi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)投(tou)資(zi)所(suo)(suo)面(mian)(mian)臨的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)重要(yao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)類(lei)(lei)型之(zhi)一。高(gao)新(xin)(xin)技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)產(chan)品(pin)(pin)研(yan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)環(huan)(huan)節的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)取(qu)決(jue)于(yu)產(chan)品(pin)(pin)研(yan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)成(cheng)(cheng)功與(yu)否，在(zai)(zai)(zai)投(tou)入(ru)諸多(duo)資(zi)源后(hou)研(yan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)目標是(shi)(shi)(shi)否達(da)成(cheng)(cheng)。中(zhong)(zhong)間試驗(yan)環(huan)(huan)節的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)取(qu)決(jue)于(yu)研(yan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)成(cheng)(cheng)果能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)夠(gou)(gou)轉化(hua)為商品(pin)(pin)，或(huo)(huo)是(shi)(shi)(shi)否具(ju)(ju)有(you)實用價值。規(gui)模化(hua)生(sheng)產(chan)環(huan)(huan)節所(suo)(suo)面(mian)(mian)臨的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)取(qu)決(jue)于(yu)在(zai)(zai)(zai)技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)問題的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影響(xiang)下能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)夠(gou)(gou)實現(xian)批(pi)量生(sheng)產(chan)，或(huo)(huo)在(zai)(zai)(zai)新(xin)(xin)技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)影響(xiang)下原技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)是(shi)(shi)(shi)否過于(yu)落后(hou)。1.3資(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)投(tou)資(zi)中(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)資(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)主(zhu)要(yao)是(shi)(shi)(shi)指由于(yu)未能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)及時(shi)滿足(zu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)實際發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)所(suo)(suo)學而(er)造(zao)(zao)成(cheng)(cheng)技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)創新(xin)(xin)失(shi)(shi)敗(bai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)可能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)性(xing)(xing)(xing)。隨著高(gao)新(xin)(xin)技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)進(jin)一步(bu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)，其(qi)所(suo)(suo)需資(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)也會更(geng)多(duo)，如果風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)投(tou)資(zi)公司無法及時(shi)籌集(ji)到(dao)充足(zu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)資(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)，將會導致(zhi)(zhi)高(gao)新(xin)(xin)技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)資(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)供應(ying)方面(mian)(mian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)斷層(ceng)現(xian)象，從而(er)造(zao)(zao)成(cheng)(cheng)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)難以繼(ji)續(xu)開(kai)展(zhan)(zhan)生(sheng)產(chan)經營活動(dong)，進(jin)而(er)導致(zhi)(zhi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)投(tou)資(zi)以失(shi)(shi)敗(bai)告終。1.4管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)素。管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)是(shi)(shi)(shi)由于(yu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理不(bu)(bu)到(dao)位而(er)造(zao)(zao)成(cheng)(cheng)其(qi)創新(xin)(xin)與(yu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)失(shi)(shi)敗(bai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)可能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)性(xing)(xing)(xing)。管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)出(chu)現(xian)主(zhu)要(yao)是(shi)(shi)(shi)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)組織(zhi)與(yu)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理體(ti)系不(bu)(bu)完善(shan)、內(nei)(nei)部員工(gong)業(ye)務能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力不(bu)(bu)足(zu)而(er)造(zao)(zao)成(cheng)(cheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)。風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)內(nei)(nei)部員工(gong)主(zhu)要(yao)包括技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)類(lei)(lei)員工(gong)、科研(yan)類(lei)(lei)員工(gong)以及技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)明人員，這些員工(gong)大都沒(mei)有(you)較(jiao)(jiao)強的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力，因(yin)而(er)會給企(qi)(qi)業(ye)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理方面(mian)(mian)造(zao)(zao)成(cheng)(cheng)很(hen)大風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。同時(shi)，風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)組織(zhi)與(yu)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理體(ti)系不(bu)(bu)夠(gou)(gou)完善(shan)，難以有(you)效約束企(qi)(qi)業(ye)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理人員的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)行為，從而(er)引(yin)發(fa)(fa)(fa)貪污受(shou)賄(hui)以及私(si)挪公款等道(dao)德風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。

2風險投(tou)資的風險識別(bie)

摘要：集團化發展使企業供(gong)(gong)應(ying)鏈(lian)(lian)(lian)(lian)網絡結構(gou)日趨復雜，供(gong)(gong)應(ying)鏈(lian)(lian)(lian)(lian)的脆弱和不穩定(ding)性(xing)帶來了(le)(le)(le)(le)許多風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)。如何識別(bie)和評估(gu)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)成為供(gong)(gong)應(ying)鏈(lian)(lian)(lian)(lian)管(guan)理的核心(xin)問(wen)題。文章對供(gong)(gong)應(ying)鏈(lian)(lian)(lian)(lian)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)進(jin)行了(le)(le)(le)(le)系統識別(bie)和分類，分析了(le)(le)(le)(le)供(gong)(gong)應(ying)鏈(lian)(lian)(lian)(lian)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)的可控性(xing)和危害性(xing)。構(gou)建了(le)(le)(le)(le)供(gong)(gong)應(ying)鏈(lian)(lian)(lian)(lian)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評估(gu)指(zhi)標(biao)體系，利用改進(jin)的集值統計(ji)加速(su)迭代法(fa)確(que)定(ding)各指(zhi)標(biao)權重，建立了(le)(le)(le)(le)基于專家風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)概(gai)率(lv)區間估(gu)計(ji)的供(gong)(gong)應(ying)鏈(lian)(lian)(lian)(lian)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)綜(zong)合評價模型，并進(jin)行了(le)(le)(le)(le)實證分析。

關鍵(jian)詞：供應鏈風險(xian)；風險(xian)識別(bie)；評價(jia)模型(xing)

1引言

供應(ying)(ying)鏈管理是(shi)一種集成式(shi)管理思想和方法，是(shi)一種有(you)效(xiao)(xiao)的企(qi)(qi)業(ye)間合作(zuo)共(gong)生模式(shi)。國際上一些(xie)先驅(qu)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)如豐(feng)田、戴爾、沃爾瑪、Carrefour等廠商，都因實踐這(zhe)一新(xin)型管理模式(shi)而(er)獲得巨大(da)成功。從成功企(qi)(qi)業(ye)實踐意(yi)義上說，實施供應(ying)(ying)鏈管理是(shi)進(jin)入(ru)21世紀(ji)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)適應(ying)(ying)全球化競(jing)(jing)爭(zheng)的一種有(you)效(xiao)(xiao)途徑。正(zheng)如英(ying)國物流專(zhuan)家馬丁(ding)·克里斯(si)多佛(fo)(MartinChristopher)所說：21世紀(ji)的競(jing)(jing)爭(zheng)不再是(shi)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)和企(qi)(qi)業(ye)之間的競(jing)(jing)爭(zheng)，而(er)是(shi)供應(ying)(ying)鏈與供應(ying)(ying)鏈之間的競(jing)(jing)爭(zheng)。

然而，據(ju)Michigan大(da)學(2003)的(de)一項研究發現，在美國大(da)約(yue)有50%的(de)企業(ye)實施供(gong)應鏈(lian)(lian)管(guan)(guan)理所帶來的(de)優勢并不強(qiang)于傳統(tong)的(de)買賣關系，其(qi)原因(yin)(yin)很大(da)程度上是由于企業(ye)對(dui)供(gong)應鏈(lian)(lian)系統(tong)中各(ge)類(lei)風險不能準(zhun)確評估和(he)管(guan)(guan)理造(zao)成的(de)。隨著產(chan)品和(he)技(ji)術生(sheng)命周期(qi)的(de)縮(suo)短(duan)、市(shi)場的(de)全球(qiu)化延伸、企業(ye)間(jian)合作關系的(de)日益(yi)復雜及(ji)組織內外環(huan)境(jing)不確定性因(yin)(yin)素(su)的(de)增加等，都(dou)將加劇供(gong)應鏈(lian)(lian)的(de)不穩定并增大(da)其(qi)風險性。受多種(zhong)因(yin)(yin)素(su)誘發，供(gong)應鏈(lian)(lian)突發事件生(sheng)成所帶來的(de)損失以及(ji)對(dui)供(gong)應鏈(lian)(lian)系統(tong)運作的(de)影響(xiang)都(dou)是巨大(da)的(de)。因(yin)(yin)此(ci)，對(dui)供(gong)應鏈(lian)(lian)的(de)風險評估與管(guan)(guan)理有重要(yao)意義。

國(guo)內外學者在(zai)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)鏈(lian)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)識別(bie)與評(ping)價方(fang)(fang)(fang)面開展了(le)大(da)(da)量(liang)研究(jiu)并獲得(de)許多研究(jiu)成果。Kraljic早(zao)在(zai)1983年(nian)提出(chu)(chu)的(de)(de)采購組合管(guan)理(li)框架中，就已經(jing)考慮了(le)由(you)外部因素引(yin)起的(de)(de)不(bu)確定性(xing)和(he)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)中斷(duan)問題。SmeltzerandSiferd(1998)借助交易(yi)成本理(li)論和(he)資源依(yi)賴模(mo)(mo)型(xing)，從(cong)采購管(guan)理(li)角度理(li)解供(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)，提出(chu)(chu)積(ji)極主動的(de)(de)采購管(guan)理(li)就是(shi)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)的(de)(de)觀點(dian)。此后(hou)，Sheff(2001)、Harland(2003)、Deloitte(2004)等分別(bie)從(cong)不(bu)同角度系(xi)統研究(jiu)了(le)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)鏈(lian)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)因素及(ji)識別(bie)問題。Hallikas(2004)從(cong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)事(shi)件的(de)(de)概率角度，定量(liang)化研究(jiu)了(le)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)鏈(lian)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)評(ping)估(gu)問題。國(guo)內一些學者也對(dui)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)鏈(lian)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)做了(le)多種(zhong)分類，并提出(chu)(chu)了(le)測度供(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)鏈(lian)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)各種(zhong)方(fang)(fang)(fang)法(fa)。如(ru)馬士華(hua)(2003)的(de)(de)內生風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)和(he)外生風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)劃(hua)分，晚(wan)春東(2007)的(de)(de)系(xi)統風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)劃(hua)分等。丁(ding)偉東等在(zai)2003年(nian)提出(chu)(chu)了(le)基(ji)于模(mo)(mo)糊評(ping)價方(fang)(fang)(fang)法(fa)的(de)(de)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)鏈(lian)可(ke)靠性(xing)評(ping)估(gu)矩陣，周南(nan)洋(2008)提出(chu)(chu)了(le)基(ji)于OWA算子的(de)(de)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)鏈(lian)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)估(gu)多屬性(xing)決策(ce)方(fang)(fang)(fang)法(fa)。綜上(shang)，以(yi)前(qian)的(de)(de)學者大(da)(da)多對(dui)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)鏈(lian)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)進(jin)行(xing)某一方(fang)(fang)(fang)面和(he)單(dan)一方(fang)(fang)(fang)法(fa)的(de)(de)識別(bie)與評(ping)估(gu)，缺(que)乏從(cong)企業(ye)集(ji)團(tuan)化發展角度對(dui)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)鏈(lian)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)進(jin)行(xing)分析和(he)評(ping)估(gu)。為此，本文(wen)在(zai)前(qian)人研究(jiu)基(ji)礎(chu)上(shang)，對(dui)企業(ye)集(ji)團(tuan)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)鏈(lian)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)進(jin)行(xing)系(xi)統識別(bie)，并給(gei)出(chu)(chu)相應(ying)(ying)的(de)(de)綜合評(ping)價模(mo)(mo)型(xing)和(he)實證分析。

礦產(chan)采(cai)(cai)掘業是(shi)(shi)對(dui)(dui)(dui)自然生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)環(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)(jing)進(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)直接(jie)破壞的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)產(chan)業。不同(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)礦種、不同(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)開(kai)(kai)采(cai)(cai)方(fang)式和(he)(he)(he)不同(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)自然環(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)(jing)背景(jing)下(xia)，采(cai)(cai)礦對(dui)(dui)(dui)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)環(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)(jing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影響(xiang)方(fang)式和(he)(he)(he)程(cheng)度不盡相(xiang)同(tong)。在(zai)眾多(duo)礦產(chan)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)中，煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)(tan)是(shi)(shi)我(wo)國最主要(yao)(yao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)物質，在(zai)一次能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)中所(suo)(suo)占比例約70％，其(qi)(qi)開(kai)(kai)采(cai)(cai)對(dui)(dui)(dui)當(dang)地(di)自然生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)環(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)(jing)造成的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)破壞是(shi)(shi)顯著(zhu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)，所(suo)(suo)引(yin)起的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)環(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)(jing)問題(ti)(ti)已(yi)(yi)經成為各煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)(tan)大(da)省所(suo)(suo)面(mian)臨的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)要(yao)(yao)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)環(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)(jing)問題(ti)(ti)之(zhi)一，生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)增強和(he)(he)(he)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)脆弱性(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)增加已(yi)(yi)經影響(xiang)到(dao)(dao)當(dang)地(di)居民的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)活質量甚至生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)命(ming)財產(chan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)安全，各地(di)政府及相(xiang)關領域(yu)(yu)學者已(yi)(yi)開(kai)(kai)始廣泛重(zhong)視。生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)是(shi)(shi)一定(ding)區(qu)域(yu)(yu)內具(ju)(ju)有(you)(you)不確(que)(que)定(ding)性(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)事故或災害(hai)對(dui)(dui)(dui)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)系(xi)統(tong)及其(qi)(qi)組分所(suo)(suo)可能(neng)產(chan)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)不利(li)影響(xiang)［1］。生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)即確(que)(que)定(ding)發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)上述(shu)不利(li)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)效(xiao)應(ying)(ying)(ying)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)可能(neng)性(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)過程(cheng)［2］。生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)是(shi)(shi)在(zai)進(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)前(qian)，認識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)并(bing)確(que)(que)定(ding)區(qu)域(yu)(yu)內存(cun)在(zai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)危(wei)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，查找、列舉和(he)(he)(he)描述(shu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)事件、風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)后果(guo)等(deng)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)要(yao)(yao)素的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)過程(cheng)，包括風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)、風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)受(shou)體(ti)(ti)(ti)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)、暴露—響(xiang)應(ying)(ying)(ying)過程(cheng)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)和(he)(he)(he)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)終點(dian)(dian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)［1］。風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)是(shi)(shi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)基礎，能(neng)否科(ke)學、有(you)(you)效(xiao)地(di)對(dui)(dui)(dui)多(duo)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)及相(xiang)應(ying)(ying)(ying)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)受(shou)體(ti)(ti)(ti)之(zhi)間(jian)復(fu)雜的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)暴露—響(xiang)應(ying)(ying)(ying)過程(cheng)進(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)分析，對(dui)(dui)(dui)該系(xi)統(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)至關重(zhong)要(yao)(yao)。通(tong)過進(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)，才能(neng)夠構(gou)(gou)建(jian)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)體(ti)(ti)(ti)系(xi)，進(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)，而(er)其(qi)(qi)最終目(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)是(shi)(shi)進(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管理和(he)(he)(he)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)防范［3］，其(qi)(qi)框架(jia)關系(xi)如圖1。在(zai)本研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)中，煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)(tan)礦區(qu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)在(zai)空(kong)間(jian)范圍(wei)上覆蓋(gai)了(le)采(cai)(cai)礦活動所(suo)(suo)能(neng)影響(xiang)和(he)(he)(he)擾(rao)動到(dao)(dao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)區(qu)域(yu)(yu)，在(zai)這(zhe)一區(qu)域(yu)(yu)內采(cai)(cai)礦活動對(dui)(dui)(dui)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)系(xi)統(tong)具(ju)(ju)有(you)(you)直接(jie)作(zuo)用。在(zai)目(mu)(mu)前(qian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)中，學者多(duo)關注于風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)方(fang)法(fa)和(he)(he)(he)指標(biao)體(ti)(ti)(ti)系(xi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)構(gou)(gou)建(jian)，對(dui)(dui)(dui)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)缺少系(xi)統(tong)性(xing)(xing)論(lun)述(shu)。而(er)在(zai)煤(mei)(mei)礦區(qu)，對(dui)(dui)(dui)于單一生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)（如土壤重(zhong)金屬污染、地(di)表塌(ta)陷等(deng)）的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)已(yi)(yi)經趨于成熟和(he)(he)(he)完善，但綜合(he)性(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)煤(mei)(mei)礦區(qu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)仍(reng)較少。本文明確(que)(que)了(le)礦區(qu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)內涵和(he)(he)(he)目(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)，根據典型(xing)煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)(tan)礦區(qu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)系(xi)統(tong)特點(dian)(dian)和(he)(he)(he)煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)(tan)開(kai)(kai)采(cai)(cai)對(dui)(dui)(dui)礦區(qu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)環(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)(jing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影響(xiang)，提出了(le)煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)(tan)礦區(qu)多(duo)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)流程(cheng)，構(gou)(gou)建(jian)了(le)典型(xing)煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)(tan)礦區(qu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)果(guo)鏈，并(bing)對(dui)(dui)(dui)其(qi)(qi)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)方(fang)法(fa)進(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)了(le)梳理。

1煤礦開采對生態環境的影響

煤(mei)炭開(kai)采(cai)工藝(yi)可分(fen)為露天開(kai)采(cai)和井(jing)工開(kai)采(cai)兩(liang)種(zhong)，以(yi)不(bu)同(tong)的(de)(de)(de)方(fang)式對(dui)礦區(qu)當地(di)生態環境(jing)造成(cheng)破壞。我國的(de)(de)(de)煤(mei)炭資源以(yi)井(jing)工開(kai)采(cai)為主(zhu)。為了明晰煤(mei)炭開(kai)采(cai)對(dui)生態環境(jing)的(de)(de)(de)影(ying)響方(fang)式，為后續的(de)(de)(de)風險識別工作進(jin)行(xing)鋪墊(dian)，需對(dui)其影(ying)響方(fang)式和基本作用機理進(jin)行(xing)分(fen)析。本研究(jiu)將(jiang)采(cai)礦活動對(dui)生態環境(jing)的(de)(de)(de)擾動歸納為土地(di)破壞和環境(jing)污染兩(liang)類，二者(zhe)綜(zong)合造成(cheng)了礦區(qu)生態退化（圖2）。

2煤礦開采(cai)對生態環境的影(ying)響(xiang)

煤(mei)(mei)(mei)炭(tan)開(kai)采(cai)(cai)(cai)造(zao)(zao)成(cheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)破壞可(ke)(ke)(ke)分(fen)(fen)為(wei)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)挖損(sun)(sun)(sun)、土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)壓(ya)占(zhan)和(he)(he)(he)(he)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)塌(ta)陷(xian)3個亞類(lei)(lei)［4］，露(lu)天(tian)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)以(yi)(yi)挖損(sun)(sun)(sun)和(he)(he)(he)(he)壓(ya)占(zhan)為(wei)主(zhu)(zhu)，井(jing)工煤(mei)(mei)(mei)礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)以(yi)(yi)壓(ya)占(zhan)和(he)(he)(he)(he)塌(ta)陷(xian)為(wei)主(zhu)(zhu)。2000—2009年我國煤(mei)(mei)(mei)炭(tan)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)開(kai)采(cai)(cai)(cai)損(sun)(sun)(sun)毀土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)5534萬hm2，對(dui)(dui)(dui)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)造(zao)(zao)成(cheng)了極大的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)消耗和(he)(he)(he)(he)損(sun)(sun)(sun)傷［5］。土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)破壞還(huan)可(ke)(ke)(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)進(jin)一(yi)步導致(zhi)局部(bu)地(di)(di)(di)質災(zai)害的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，如(ru)(ru)滑坡、泥石(shi)流(liu)(liu)、土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)石(shi)流(liu)(liu)、礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)震等(deng)(deng)［6］。環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)(jing)(jing)污染(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)可(ke)(ke)(ke)分(fen)(fen)為(wei)固(gu)體(ti)(ti)(ti)廢(fei)棄物污染(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)、廢(fei)水(shui)(shui)污染(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)和(he)(he)(he)(he)廢(fei)氣(qi)(qi)污染(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)3類(lei)(lei)，露(lu)天(tian)開(kai)采(cai)(cai)(cai)和(he)(he)(he)(he)井(jing)工開(kai)采(cai)(cai)(cai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)污染(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)方式基本(ben)類(lei)(lei)似。除污染(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)物的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)直(zhi)接(jie)排放之外，土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)破壞也(ye)可(ke)(ke)(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)引發(fa)次生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)(jing)(jing)污染(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)。例(li)(li)如(ru)(ru)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)矸石(shi)堆放不僅壓(ya)占(zhan)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)，其中(zhong)所(suo)含的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)金屬元素(su)還(huan)會(hui)(hui)在(zai)雨水(shui)(shui)淋溶作(zuo)(zuo)用(yong)下遷移并(bing)污染(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)壤(rang)和(he)(he)(he)(he)水(shui)(shui)體(ti)(ti)(ti)，煤(mei)(mei)(mei)矸石(shi)自(zi)(zi)燃(ran)又會(hui)(hui)產(chan)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)SO2、CO和(he)(he)(he)(he)CO2等(deng)(deng)有(you)毒(du)有(you)害氣(qi)(qi)體(ti)(ti)(ti)，是(shi)(shi)大氣(qi)(qi)污染(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)要污染(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)。土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)破壞和(he)(he)(he)(he)環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)(jing)(jing)污染(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)綜(zong)合(he)(he)作(zuo)(zuo)用(yong)導致(zhi)礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)區(qu)(qu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)退化(hua)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)系統的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)結(jie)構損(sun)(sun)(sun)壞和(he)(he)(he)(he)功能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)缺(que)失。同時，在(zai)脆弱(ruo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)(jing)(jing)下，生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)退化(hua)會(hui)(hui)進(jin)一(yi)步加劇(ju)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)破壞程度(du)，例(li)(li)如(ru)(ru)在(zai)干(gan)旱(han)—半干(gan)旱(han)地(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)，煤(mei)(mei)(mei)炭(tan)開(kai)采(cai)(cai)(cai)會(hui)(hui)加劇(ju)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)沙漠化(hua)、土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)壤(rang)侵蝕和(he)(he)(he)(he)水(shui)(shui)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)流(liu)(liu)失［7－8］；在(zai)潛水(shui)(shui)位較高的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)區(qu)(qu)域(yu)(yu)，地(di)(di)(di)表塌(ta)陷(xian)會(hui)(hui)引發(fa)地(di)(di)(di)面積水(shui)(shui)、土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)壤(rang)鹽漬化(hua)等(deng)(deng)后(hou)果(guo)(guo)(guo)［9］。這一(yi)正(zheng)反饋(kui)機制會(hui)(hui)導致(zhi)礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)區(qu)(qu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)(jing)(jing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)惡性(xing)循環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)，進(jin)一(yi)步加大生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)治理和(he)(he)(he)(he)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)防范的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)難(nan)度(du)。即(ji)使(shi)在(zai)閉(bi)礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)后(hou)，礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)區(qu)(qu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)(jing)(jing)也(ye)可(ke)(ke)(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)繼續惡化(hua)，需(xu)要較長時間(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)治理和(he)(he)(he)(he)復墾才(cai)可(ke)(ke)(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)恢復。2煤(mei)(mei)(mei)炭(tan)礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)區(qu)(qu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)在(zai)目(mu)前(qian)國內(nei)外常(chang)用(yong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)體(ti)(ti)(ti)系和(he)(he)(he)(he)方法中(zhong)，風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)通(tong)常(chang)作(zuo)(zuo)為(wei)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)一(yi)個或幾個環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)節(jie)，較少(shao)單獨提出進(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)研(yan)(yan)(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)。例(li)(li)如(ru)(ru)，Hunsaker79等(deng)(deng)［10］提出的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)區(qu)(qu)域(yu)(yu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)概(gai)(gai)(gai)念(nian)模型中(zhong)，將風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)總(zong)結(jie)為(wei)5個環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)節(jie)，其中(zhong)“終(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)選取(qu)”和(he)(he)(he)(he)“風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)性(xing)和(he)(he)(he)(he)定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)量(liang)描述”兩(liang)個環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)節(jie)即(ji)屬于(yu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)內(nei)容(rong)；PETAR方法［11］（procedureforecologicaltieredassessmentofrisks）中(zhong)提出“三級(ji)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)”，其中(zhong)“初(chu)級(ji)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)”即(ji)是(shi)(shi)對(dui)(dui)(dui)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)受(shou)體(ti)(ti)(ti)和(he)(he)(he)(he)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)區(qu)(qu)域(yu)(yu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)；在(zai)Landis［12］構建(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)相(xiang)(xiang)對(dui)(dui)(dui)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)模型所(suo)包(bao)(bao)含的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)9項內(nei)容(rong)中(zhong)，也(ye)并(bing)未提出“識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)概(gai)(gai)(gai)念(nian)，而是(shi)(shi)將對(dui)(dui)(dui)區(qu)(qu)域(yu)(yu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)選擇(ze)和(he)(he)(he)(he)劃分(fen)(fen)，風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、受(shou)體(ti)(ti)(ti)及(ji)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)終(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)概(gai)(gai)(gai)念(nian)模型的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)建(jian)立(li)等(deng)(deng)屬于(yu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)內(nei)容(rong)融合(he)(he)到風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)方法中(zhong)去。風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)在(zai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)研(yan)(yan)(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)中(zhong)通(tong)常(chang)被(bei)作(zuo)(zuo)為(wei)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)前(qian)期準備(bei)工作(zuo)(zuo)，或直(zhi)接(jie)融入風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)過(guo)(guo)程中(zhong)，對(dui)(dui)(dui)于(yu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)內(nei)涵尚缺(que)乏共(gong)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)界(jie)定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)。例(li)(li)如(ru)(ru)，姚蘭(lan)［13］在(zai)洞庭(ting)湖進(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)(jing)(jing)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)與評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)研(yan)(yan)(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)中(zhong)，將環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)(jing)(jing)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)(yin)子(zi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)與相(xiang)(xiang)應的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)指標選取(qu)相(xiang)(xiang)結(jie)合(he)(he)，由此將識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)與評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)結(jie)合(he)(he)起(qi)來。在(zai)許學工等(deng)(deng)［14］針對(dui)(dui)(dui)自(zi)(zi)然災(zai)害進(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)中(zhong)，通(tong)過(guo)(guo)對(dui)(dui)(dui)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)受(shou)體(ti)(ti)(ti)和(he)(he)(he)(he)脆弱(ruo)性(xing)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)因(yin)(yin)子(zi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)，完成(cheng)了風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)內(nei)容(rong)，但并(bing)未明確(que)(que)(que)使(shi)用(yong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)這一(yi)概(gai)(gai)(gai)念(nian)。高鐵(tie)軍等(deng)(deng)［15］在(zai)采(cai)(cai)(cai)礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)塌(ta)陷(xian)區(qu)(qu)進(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)時，將塌(ta)陷(xian)區(qu)(qu)修復中(zhong)可(ke)(ke)(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)遇到的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)進(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)分(fen)(fen)類(lei)(lei)和(he)(he)(he)(he)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)作(zuo)(zuo)為(wei)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)研(yan)(yan)(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)內(nei)容(rong)。焦鋒［16］提出了較為(wei)具體(ti)(ti)(ti)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)概(gai)(gai)(gai)念(nian)模型構建(jian)方法，采(cai)(cai)(cai)用(yong)加權打分(fen)(fen)法來對(dui)(dui)(dui)驅動(dong)力、風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)(yin)子(zi)和(he)(he)(he)(he)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)終(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)進(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)，確(que)(que)(que)定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)其危害強度(du)。常(chang)青等(deng)(deng)［17］針對(dui)(dui)(dui)礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)區(qu)(qu)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)破壞生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)構建(jian)了風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)(yin)果(guo)(guo)(guo)鏈作(zuo)(zuo)為(wei)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)基礎，并(bing)探(tan)討了風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)受(shou)體(ti)(ti)(ti)和(he)(he)(he)(he)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)終(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)選取(qu)和(he)(he)(he)(he)定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)量(liang)表征方法，在(zai)礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)區(qu)(qu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)綜(zong)合(he)(he)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)與評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)方面做出了有(you)益的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)拓展(zhan)。本(ben)研(yan)(yan)(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)認(ren)為(wei)，廣義的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)研(yan)(yan)(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)包(bao)(bao)括風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)、風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)分(fen)(fen)類(lei)(lei)和(he)(he)(he)(he)狹(xia)義的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)，狹(xia)義的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)即(ji)是(shi)(shi)對(dui)(dui)(dui)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)概(gai)(gai)(gai)率的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)量(liang)化(hua)研(yan)(yan)(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)，而風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)則是(shi)(shi)對(dui)(dui)(dui)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)性(xing)和(he)(he)(he)(he)半定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)量(liang)化(hua)認(ren)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。煤(mei)(mei)(mei)炭(tan)礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)區(qu)(qu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)內(nei)容(rong)是(shi)(shi)篩選礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)區(qu)(qu)范圍內(nei)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)和(he)(he)(he)(he)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)受(shou)體(ti)(ti)(ti)，通(tong)過(guo)(guo)定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)性(xing)和(he)(he)(he)(he)半定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)量(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)方法對(dui)(dui)(dui)其進(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)甄別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)，判斷區(qu)(qu)域(yu)(yu)內(nei)是(shi)(shi)否受(shou)到各個風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)響，并(bing)對(dui)(dui)(dui)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)作(zuo)(zuo)用(yong)于(yu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)受(shou)體(ti)(ti)(ti)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)暴露(lu)—響應過(guo)(guo)程進(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)，確(que)(que)(que)定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)終(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)。其識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)結(jie)果(guo)(guo)(guo)是(shi)(shi)構建(jian)一(yi)個詳細的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)(yin)果(guo)(guo)(guo)鏈，明晰風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)受(shou)體(ti)(ti)(ti)、生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)終(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)及(ji)其之間(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)相(xiang)(xiang)互作(zuo)(zuo)用(yong)關系，搭(da)建(jian)起(qi)礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)區(qu)(qu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)多源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)多受(shou)體(ti)(ti)(ti)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)網狀因(yin)(yin)果(guo)(guo)(guo)體(ti)(ti)(ti)系。本(ben)文將礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)區(qu)(qu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)分(fen)(fen)為(wei)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)流(liu)(liu)程和(he)(he)(he)(he)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)方法兩(liang)部(bu)分(fen)(fen)進(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)論述。礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)區(qu)(qu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)流(liu)(liu)程包(bao)(bao)括礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)區(qu)(qu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)綜(zong)合(he)(he)調(diao)查、風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)、風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)受(shou)體(ti)(ti)(ti)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)、暴露(lu)—響應過(guo)(guo)程識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)、生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)終(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)、因(yin)(yin)果(guo)(guo)(guo)鏈構建(jian)6個步驟。礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)區(qu)(qu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)方法是(shi)(shi)在(zai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)(bie)中(zhong)判定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)及(ji)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)受(shou)體(ti)(ti)(ti)是(shi)(shi)否存在(zai)、確(que)(que)(que)定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)其空(kong)間(jian)位置和(he)(he)(he)(he)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)影(ying)響程度(du)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)方法，在(zai)具體(ti)(ti)(ti)研(yan)(yan)(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)中(zhong)常(chang)作(zuo)(zuo)為(wei)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)一(yi)部(bu)分(fen)(fen)進(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)。

3煤炭礦區生態風險(xian)識別流(liu)程

【摘要】財(cai)(cai)務管(guan)理工作通過(guo)追(zhui)蹤資(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)的(de)(de)流(liu)動數量以及流(liu)動方(fang)(fang)向，能(neng)夠管(guan)控(kong)企(qi)業資(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)資(zi)源的(de)(de)使用，并(bing)且能(neng)夠借(jie)資(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)流(liu)管(guan)控(kong)實現對(dui)(dui)業務環節的(de)(de)創新和(he)發展。在統(tong)籌資(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)流(liu)、信息(xi)流(liu)和(he)物流(liu)的(de)(de)基礎之上提升對(dui)(dui)財(cai)(cai)務風(feng)險信息(xi)的(de)(de)統(tong)籌能(neng)力，提升對(dui)(dui)財(cai)(cai)務風(feng)險識(shi)別的(de)(de)精確性(xing)和(he)有(you)效性(xing)。基于(yu)此，論文對(dui)(dui)企(qi)業財(cai)(cai)務風(feng)險的(de)(de)識(shi)別方(fang)(fang)法進行了研究(jiu)。

【關(guan)鍵詞】財務(wu)風險；風險識別；控制(zhi)

1引言

企(qi)業(ye)內部(bu)財務(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管控(kong)的(de)前(qian)提是能(neng)夠全面、精準(zhun)地識(shi)別財務(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)類型、發生概率以及(ji)(ji)影響(xiang)程度等。對此(ci)，企(qi)業(ye)需(xu)要(yao)建設科學的(de)財務(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)別機制，能(neng)夠及(ji)(ji)時識(shi)別企(qi)業(ye)內部(bu)和外部(bu)的(de)變化環境，在識(shi)別風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)基礎之上制定正(zheng)確(que)的(de)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管控(kong)措施(shi)。

2企業財務(wu)風險(xian)識(shi)別的特點

風險(xian)識別工作需要(yao)貫(guan)穿(chuan)風險(xian)管控過程(cheng)的(de)全流程(cheng)和全環節，能夠及時(shi)反映內部(bu)和外部(bu)環境的(de)變動，及時(shi)識別風險(xian)。

摘要(yao)(yao)：在當前競爭(zheng)激(ji)烈的(de)市場中，企業(ye)(ye)的(de)財(cai)務(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)意識(shi)弱直接導致企業(ye)(ye)的(de)經營風(feng)(feng)險(xian)，而識(shi)別財(cai)務(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)、建立財(cai)務(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)的(de)預警(jing)機制給企業(ye)(ye)進(jin)行(xing)可持(chi)續健康(kang)發展帶來了前所未有的(de)重要(yao)(yao)的(de)機遇，有著非常重要(yao)(yao)的(de)意義。企業(ye)(ye)對(dui)財(cai)務(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)進(jin)行(xing)準確(que)及時的(de)識(shi)別能夠加強(qiang)企業(ye)(ye)對(dui)這類風(feng)(feng)險(xian)的(de)監控(kong)，后續的(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)控(kong)制就(jiu)有了支持(chi)，風(feng)(feng)險(xian)預警(jing)機制的(de)建立能夠從(cong)制度(du)方法層面為企業(ye)(ye)的(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)防范(fan)提(ti)供依據，這對(dui)于企業(ye)(ye)的(de)可持(chi)續發展有著至關(guan)重要(yao)(yao)的(de)意義。

關鍵詞：財務風險；識別；預(yu)警機制

一、引言

在市場化競爭中，企(qi)(qi)業(ye)面臨的(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)隨處(chu)可(ke)見，在財(cai)務(wu)方(fang)面，財(cai)務(wu)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)對企(qi)(qi)業(ye)的(de)發展影(ying)響非常大，這類(lei)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)雖(sui)然復雜但是(shi)有一(yi)定的(de)可(ke)預(yu)見性，能(neng)夠建立完善(shan)的(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)預(yu)警機(ji)制(zhi)進行風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)監控，所以財(cai)務(wu)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)導致的(de)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)經營能(neng)力(li)的(de)降低(di)(di)，盈利(li)能(neng)力(li)降低(di)(di)，資金周轉速(su)度(du)降低(di)(di)，償債(zhai)能(neng)力(li)減(jian)弱(ruo)等嚴重(zhong)的(de)問題(ti)可(ke)以在一(yi)定程度(du)上得到(dao)緩解，因此(ci)，企(qi)(qi)業(ye)對財(cai)務(wu)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)識別以及風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)預(yu)警機(ji)制(zhi)的(de)建立健全對企(qi)(qi)業(ye)長期健康(kang)發展意義重(zhong)大，需要(yao)決策層給予(yu)重(zhong)視，提升企(qi)(qi)業(ye)的(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)識別能(neng)力(li)和預(yu)警機(ji)制(zhi)建設。

二(er)、企業財務風(feng)險識(shi)別

（一(yi)）現(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)流(liu)(liu)(liu)(liu)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)現(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)流(liu)(liu)(liu)(liu)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)是(shi)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)生存(cun)發(fa)展重(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)資(zi)(zi)源，現(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)流(liu)(liu)(liu)(liu)不(bu)暢導(dao)(dao)致的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)在中(zhong)外企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)中(zhong)數(shu)不(bu)勝數(shu)，所(suo)以(yi)(yi)，企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)要(yao)重(zhong)(zhong)視(shi)現(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)流(liu)(liu)(liu)(liu)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)出現(xian)。現(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)流(liu)(liu)(liu)(liu)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)原因主(zhu)要(yao)是(shi)現(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)周(zhou)轉的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)速度緩慢，企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)不(bu)斷進行經營(ying)規(gui)模(mo)擴大。首先，現(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)周(zhou)轉速度降低(di)、營(ying)運資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)被(bei)占用(yong)就會(hui)(hui)造(zao)成(cheng)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)缺(que)少(shao)充足(zu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)現(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)流(liu)(liu)(liu)(liu)，對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)現(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)，其次，當(dang)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)規(gui)模(mo)不(bu)斷擴張時(shi)，自然對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)就會(hui)(hui)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)，這(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)時(shi)很(hen)(hen)容(rong)易(yi)(yi)導(dao)(dao)致現(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)流(liu)(liu)(liu)(liu)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)減少(shao)。當(dang)現(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)流(liu)(liu)(liu)(liu)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)減少(shao)時(shi)，企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)就出現(xian)了，為了籌(chou)(chou)集(ji)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)就會(hui)(hui)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)負(fu)(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)，負(fu)(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)又會(hui)(hui)造(zao)成(cheng)償(chang)(chang)(chang)債(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)降低(di)，導(dao)(dao)致籌(chou)(chou)資(zi)(zi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)，此外，現(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)流(liu)(liu)(liu)(liu)還(huan)會(hui)(hui)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)決(jue)策(ce)(ce)(ce)、影響企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)信(xin)(xin)用(yong)等(deng)方(fang)(fang)面，加(jia)強(qiang)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)現(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)流(liu)(liu)(liu)(liu)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識別(bie)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)預警機制建立和企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)更健(jian)(jian)康的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)展有(you)著(zhu)非常(chang)重(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)意義。（二）籌(chou)(chou)資(zi)(zi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)在進行資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)籌(chou)(chou)集(ji)過程(cheng)中(zhong)很(hen)(hen)容(rong)易(yi)(yi)遇到風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，籌(chou)(chou)資(zi)(zi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)原因較為廣泛，如(ru)果企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)經營(ying)過程(cheng)中(zhong)出現(xian)過多的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)負(fu)(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)，或者債(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)務(wu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)期限結構等(deng)方(fang)(fang)面出現(xian)問題，投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)人會(hui)(hui)失去(qu)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)該(gai)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)信(xin)(xin)心，這(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)樣(yang)就很(hen)(hen)容(rong)易(yi)(yi)引起(qi)籌(chou)(chou)資(zi)(zi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)償(chang)(chang)(chang)債(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)可以(yi)(yi)從長期和短(duan)期兩個(ge)維度來(lai)考察，長期用(yong)資(zi)(zi)產負(fu)(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)率(lv)指(zhi)(zhi)標來(lai)衡量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)，該(gai)指(zhi)(zhi)標越(yue)高就意味著(zhu)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)負(fu)(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)越(yue)高，那么對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)于(yu)(yu)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)人來(lai)說該(gai)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)償(chang)(chang)(chang)債(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)越(yue)弱(ruo)(ruo)；短(duan)期用(yong)現(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)流(liu)(liu)(liu)(liu)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)負(fu)(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)比指(zhi)(zhi)標來(lai)衡量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)，該(gai)指(zhi)(zhi)標越(yue)低(di)，就意味著(zhu)該(gai)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)在短(duan)期償(chang)(chang)(chang)債(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)方(fang)(fang)面能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)很(hen)(hen)弱(ruo)(ruo)，所(suo)以(yi)(yi)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)缺(que)乏償(chang)(chang)(chang)債(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)人對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)其投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)就越(yue)謹慎，企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)籌(chou)(chou)資(zi)(zi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)就越(yue)高。企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)債(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)務(wu)結構失衡也會(hui)(hui)使(shi)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)面臨(lin)償(chang)(chang)(chang)債(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)危機，籌(chou)(chou)資(zi)(zi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)高導(dao)(dao)致籌(chou)(chou)資(zi)(zi)難，嚴(yan)重(zhong)(zhong)影響企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)正(zheng)常(chang)運行，進一(yi)步造(zao)成(cheng)盈利(li)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)減弱(ruo)(ruo)，這(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)樣(yang)利(li)潤降低(di)導(dao)(dao)致償(chang)(chang)(chang)債(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)持續惡化，最(zui)終導(dao)(dao)致經營(ying)危機。（三）投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)包括市(shi)場(chang)、利(li)率(lv)、能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)、變現(xian)等(deng)方(fang)(fang)面的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，這(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)些風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)主(zhu)要(yao)是(shi)由于(yu)(yu)我國企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)普遍上(shang)(shang)(shang)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)決(jue)策(ce)(ce)(ce)并不(bu)科學(xue)，缺(que)乏完善健(jian)(jian)全的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)決(jue)策(ce)(ce)(ce)制度，更多的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)來(lai)自領(ling)(ling)導(dao)(dao)層的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)主(zhu)管決(jue)策(ce)(ce)(ce)，企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)意識不(bu)強(qiang)就造(zao)成(cheng)盲(mang)目(mu)追求(qiu)熱門的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)項目(mu)，將(jiang)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)大量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)于(yu)(yu)當(dang)前市(shi)場(chang)熱門的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)領(ling)(ling)域，而沒(mei)有(you)經過科學(xue)專(zhuan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評估。外界政策(ce)(ce)(ce)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)變化以(yi)(yi)及競爭對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)手的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)戰略布(bu)局、內部管理(li)決(jue)策(ce)(ce)(ce)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)失誤、金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)融機構利(li)率(lv)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)大幅上(shang)(shang)(shang)升、供應商價格上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲這(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)些因素都會(hui)(hui)導(dao)(dao)致投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)，投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)活動本身就伴隨(sui)著(zhu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，這(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)是(shi)不(bu)可避免的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)，但是(shi)通過完善的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評估和科學(xue)專(zhuan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)決(jue)策(ce)(ce)(ce)會(hui)(hui)大大降低(di)這(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)些風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，識別(bie)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)需(xu)(xu)要(yao)管理(li)人員進行全面準(zhun)確(que)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)項目(mu)研究和分析(xi)，對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)各個(ge)環(huan)節的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)把(ba)控以(yi)(yi)及市(shi)場(chang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)預測，這(zhe)(zhe)(zhe)是(shi)一(yi)個(ge)系(xi)統性(xing)(xing)、專(zhuan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)性(xing)(xing)極(ji)強(qiang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)工作，投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)識別(bie)將(jiang)會(hui)(hui)為領(ling)(ling)導(dao)(dao)層進行投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)決(jue)策(ce)(ce)(ce)提供重(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)依據(ju)。

摘要(yao)：基(ji)于(yu)我(wo)國信(xin)息化快速(su)發展這一背景環境下，會(hui)計(ji)(ji)信(xin)息系統在(zai)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)總(zong)體運(yun)作(zuo)當(dang)中發揮(hui)著(zhu)十(shi)分(fen)重要(yao)的(de)功能，企(qi)(qi)業(ye)對于(yu)會(hui)計(ji)(ji)信(xin)息風險也逐漸提升了重視(shi)的(de)程度。使用相應的(de)方式對于(yu)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)信(xin)息系統實施(shi)了風險辨別(bie)。掌握企(qi)(qi)業(ye)會(hui)計(ji)(ji)信(xin)息系統相對薄弱的(de)地(di)方，進(jin)而具有針對性的(de)實施(shi)風險管理(li)，這在(zai)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)發展與(yu)運(yun)營過程中是不能缺(que)少的(de)。文章主(zhu)要(yao)對企(qi)(qi)業(ye)會(hui)計(ji)(ji)信(xin)息風險識別(bie)與(yu)治理(li)進(jin)行深入(ru)研究，旨在(zai)給企(qi)(qi)業(ye)會(hui)計(ji)(ji)信(xin)息管理(li)方面提供一定的(de)參(can)考(kao)和(he)幫助(zhu)。

關(guan)鍵詞：企業；會(hui)計信息；風險識別；治理

其實風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)指的(de)(de)就是(shi)今后可(ke)能會(hui)(hui)發生的(de)(de)無法確(que)定(ding)的(de)(de)結果(guo)，在(zai)財(cai)(cai)務管(guan)(guan)理(li)方(fang)(fang)面(mian)不管(guan)(guan)是(shi)哪種風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)均會(hui)(hui)導致嚴重的(de)(de)損失。所以(yi)，一定(ding)要對(dui)(dui)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)進(jin)行有(you)效(xiao)的(de)(de)識(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)與管(guan)(guan)理(li)，盡可(ke)能的(de)(de)減少(shao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)成本。企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)會(hui)(hui)計(ji)信(xin)息(xi)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)能夠有(you)效(xiao)維護企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)總體運(yun)營，企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)對(dui)(dui)于(yu)會(hui)(hui)計(ji)信(xin)息(xi)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)實施(shi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)和(he)管(guan)(guan)理(li)，既是(shi)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)財(cai)(cai)務避免(mian)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)需求(qiu)，同時還(huan)是(shi)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)整體風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)方(fang)(fang)面(mian)的(de)(de)需求(qiu)。但是(shi)當前我國(guo)在(zai)會(hui)(hui)計(ji)信(xin)息(xi)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)與管(guan)(guan)理(li)這(zhe)方(fang)(fang)面(mian)的(de)(de)探究(jiu)相對(dui)(dui)較少(shao)，企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)對(dui)(dui)于(yu)這(zhe)方(fang)(fang)面(mian)的(de)(de)認識(shi)(shi)和(he)經(jing)驗(yan)相對(dui)(dui)缺乏，大部分企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)因為想要確(que)保會(hui)(hui)計(ji)信(xin)息(xi)，投入較多的(de)(de)財(cai)(cai)力(li)和(he)物力(li)，但是(shi)效(xiao)果(guo)卻不是(shi)很理(li)想。所以(yi)，企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)怎樣識(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)，并且(qie)采取(qu)相應的(de)(de)治理(li)方(fang)(fang)式(shi)對(dui)(dui)于(yu)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)發展有(you)著極大的(de)(de)影響。下面(mian)將進(jin)一步闡述企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)會(hui)(hui)計(ji)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)別(bie)(bie)及治理(li)的(de)(de)方(fang)(fang)式(shi)。

一、企(qi)業會計管理(li)和信息風險識別(bie)遵循(xun)的原則

（一）合規性

組織(zhi)的(de)規(gui)章(zhang)制度(du)限(xian)(xian)制了組織(zhi)平時(shi)運營最(zui)根(gen)本的(de)標(biao)準和(he)規(gui)范化的(de)流程，屬于(yu)組織(zhi)決(jue)策當中主要的(de)參考證據以及確保體系(xi)。規(gui)章(zhang)制度(du)對于(yu)決(jue)策影響(xiang)主要是其在決(jue)策時(shi)的(de)限(xian)(xian)制以及決(jue)策權力和(he)責任(ren)這些(xie)配置(zhi)的(de)規(gui)律，其決(jue)策行為(wei)必須要參考的(de)標(biao)準。通常來講，規(gui)章(zhang)制度(du)越標(biao)準，他的(de)決(jue)策限(xian)(xian)制越嚴格。

［提要］人(ren)臉(lian)識別(bie)技(ji)術作(zuo)為(wei)一項新興(xing)科學(xue)技(ji)術，被廣泛運(yun)用(yong)于(yu)各個領域(yu)，但同時也(ye)帶來大(da)量(liang)的(de)(de)社會問(wen)題(ti)及(ji)矛(mao)盾。人(ren)臉(lian)識別(bie)技(ji)術的(de)(de)無節制應(ying)用(yong)導致(zhi)個人(ren)面(mian)(mian)部(bu)信息(xi)的(de)(de)大(da)量(liang)泄(xie)露和(he)濫(lan)用(yong)，這無疑亟(ji)須(xu)通過法律加以(yi)規范。目前，全面(mian)(mian)系(xi)統的(de)(de)相(xiang)關法律體系(xi)還未建立，而人(ren)臉(lian)識別(bie)技(ji)術不斷更迭，反映的(de)(de)問(wen)題(ti)也(ye)日益突出。因此(ci)，厘清(qing)人(ren)臉(lian)識別(bie)技(ji)術的(de)(de)應(ying)用(yong)邊界(jie)，研究其中蘊含(han)的(de)(de)法律問(wen)題(ti)及(ji)風險，以(yi)實現人(ren)臉(lian)識別(bie)技(ji)術帶來的(de)(de)高效便捷與保護(hu)個人(ren)信息(xi)安全之(zhi)間的(de)(de)平衡(heng)則(ze)尤為(wei)重要。

關鍵詞：人臉識別；侵權風險；個人信息(xi)

一、人臉識別技術概述

（一(yi)）人臉(lian)識(shi)別技(ji)術的(de)(de)定義。人臉(lian)識(shi)別技(ji)術是通過攝像(xiang)頭抓取(qu)自然(ran)人的(de)(de)面(mian)部特(te)征，隨后(hou)利用大(da)數(shu)據(ju)快(kuai)速進(jin)行人臉(lian)比對，實現個人身份驗(yan)(yan)證的(de)(de)一(yi)項數(shu)據(ju)識(shi)別技(ji)術。通過閱讀相關資料可(ke)以得(de)知其具體的(de)(de)技(ji)術步驟如下(xia)：首先由攝像(xiang)頭采(cai)集個人面(mian)部信(xin)息，然(ran)后(hou)數(shu)據(ju)系統自動(dong)對該(gai)面(mian)部信(xin)息進(jin)行特(te)征分析，再將該(gai)分析數(shu)據(ju)傳(chuan)輸至人臉(lian)數(shu)據(ju)庫，得(de)出匹(pi)配結果，最后(hou)完成人臉(lian)驗(yan)(yan)證。

（二）人(ren)臉識別技術的特征

1、人身附屬(shu)(shu)性。人臉識別技術即根據(ju)自然人的(de)(de)個人臉部特征信息進行身份識別和驗證。在一般情況下，個人的(de)(de)臉部信息具有唯(wei)一性并且(qie)具有較強(qiang)的(de)(de)個人人身附屬(shu)(shu)性。

摘要(yao)(yao)：風險(xian)(xian)識別是風險(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)(li)過程(cheng)的(de)(de)第一階段，是風險(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)(li)成功(gong)與(yu)否的(de)(de)關(guan)鍵所在，其建立(li)在廣(guang)泛的(de)(de)信息搜集統計的(de)(de)基礎(chu)上(shang)，既要(yao)(yao)兼顧在過去已經發(fa)生的(de)(de)，還要(yao)(yao)統籌將(jiang)來(lai)可能(neng)發(fa)生的(de)(de)。在現如今互(hu)聯網加與(yu)商(shang)業模式、市場管(guan)理(li)(li)模式有機(ji)結合的(de)(de)情況下，風險(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)(li)越(yue)來(lai)越(yue)依(yi)賴于(yu)大數據分析，利(li)(li)用網絡信息技術(shu)能(neng)夠提高對風險(xian)(xian)識別的(de)(de)認知度，篩選出對企業更重(zhong)要(yao)(yao)的(de)(de)有利(li)(li)或不利(li)(li)的(de)(de)因素，規避不利(li)(li)因素并(bing)將(jiang)更多的(de)(de)不確定性(xing)轉化(hua)為機(ji)會。

關(guan)鍵詞(ci)：風險(xian)識別；風險(xian)分類；定(ding)性(xing)方(fang)法；定(ding)量方(fang)法

一、前言

《禮記•中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)庸》中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)有句話“凡事(shi)預則立不(bu)預則廢”。大家應(ying)該都記得(de)法(fa)拉(la)(la)姆(mu)石(shi)油過(guo)速器的(de)(de)廣(guang)(guang)告，廣(guang)(guang)告的(de)(de)大概意思(si)是:結(jie)合合理(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)引擎推護和(he)(he)定(ding)(ding)(ding)期更(geng)換石(shi)油過(guo)濾器，可(ke)避免(mian)日后嚴重的(de)(de)損失和(he)(he)高昂的(de)(de)引擎修理(li)(li)(li)費用。法(fa)拉(la)(la)姆(mu)在(zai)廣(guang)(guang)告中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)宣傳的(de)(de)口號是:“如果你現在(zai)不(bu)付(fu)錢，那(nei)以后將付(fu)更(geng)多的(de)(de)錢。”風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管理(li)(li)(li)也遵循同(tong)樣(yang)的(de)(de)邏輯。在(zai)確(que)定(ding)(ding)(ding)相關的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)并制(zhi)定(ding)(ding)(ding)先(xian)發制(zhi)人的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)策略時(shi)，需要重點的(de)(de)去(qu)識別(bie)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)，風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)控(kong)制(zhi)團隊應(ying)當事(shi)先(xian)花費時(shi)間(jian)和(he)(he)資(zi)(zi)金，否(fou)則未來(lai)可(ke)能(neng)會承(cheng)受更(geng)大的(de)(de)代價(jia)。從廣(guang)(guang)義上(shang)來(lai)講，對投資(zi)(zi)者而言，風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管理(li)(li)(li)過(guo)程需要首先(xian)解決以下問題：不(bu)確(que)定(ding)(ding)(ding)的(de)(de)消極因素的(de)(de)可(ke)能(neng)性和(he)(he)影響?制(zhi)定(ding)(ding)(ding)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管理(li)(li)(li)策略，識別(bie)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)必(bi)須考慮的(de)(de)幾個關鍵步驟，評(ping)估風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)影響力的(de)(de)方法(fa)，以及減輕消極影響的(de)(de)過(guo)程。項(xiang)目風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)究(jiu)其根本(ben)是事(shi)件發生(sheng)的(de)(de)可(ke)能(neng)性和(he)(he)事(shi)件發生(sheng)的(de)(de)不(bu)良后果或(huo)影響。風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)和(he)(he)機會就像硬幣的(de)(de)兩面一一機會來(lai)自(zi)于(yu)有利于(yu)項(xiang)目的(de)(de)因素，風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)則來(lai)自(zi)于(yu)不(bu)利于(yu)項(xiang)目的(de)(de)事(shi)件。

二、風險分類

要(yao)(yao)想(xiang)做好風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識別必(bi)(bi)須(xu)明(ming)(ming)確(que)(que)相似風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)分類(lei)(lei)。風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)一般分為如(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)下幾(ji)類(lei)(lei):財務(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)——當(dang)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)實施(shi)一個(ge)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)時(shi)，它(ta)不得不公(gong)開相關的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)財務(wu)狀況，這(zhe)時(shi)涉及的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)即(ji)(ji)為財務(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。如(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)果項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)開工(gong)(gong)之前就(jiu)(jiu)需要(yao)(yao)大量的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)資金(jin)，比(bi)如(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)在(zai)(zai)沒有(you)(you)(you)(you)預付款情況下的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)建筑施(shi)工(gong)(gong)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)，這(zhe)種(zhong)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)時(shi)也沒有(you)(you)(you)(you)明(ming)(ming)確(que)(que)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)審計(ji)金(jin)額和(he)可(ke)回收金(jin)額，這(zhe)些(xie)(xie)公(gong)司必(bi)(bi)須(xu)承受(shou)巨(ju)(ju)大的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)財務(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，因(yin)為它(ta)們(men)(men)完(wan)全寄希望于(yu)(yu)建筑完(wan)工(gong)(gong)后(hou)能(neng)被銷售出去或(huo)(huo)者能(neng)安全移(yi)交給發包方。(一)技術(shu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)——當(dang)新(xin)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)需要(yao)(yao)高新(xin)技術(shu)或(huo)(huo)未取得專(zhuan)利的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)技術(shu)時(shi)，開發這(zhe)些(xie)(xie)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)就(jiu)(jiu)存(cun)在(zai)(zai)巨(ju)(ju)大的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)技術(shu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。當(dang)然，這(zhe)些(xie)(xie)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)有(you)(you)(you)(you)一定的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)等(deng)(deng)級，在(zai)(zai)某些(xie)(xie)情況下，技術(shu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)比(bi)較小(比(bi)如(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)對一個(ge)已經完(wan)成開發的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)產(chan)(chan)品進行(xing)(xing)修(xiu)改)，但(dan)(dan)還有(you)(you)(you)(you)些(xie)(xie)情況技術(shu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)可(ke)能(neng)非常(chang)大。一般而言，項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)技術(shu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)越大，那么(me)該項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)無法(fa)滿足特定需求的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)可(ke)能(neng)性(xing)就(jiu)(jiu)越大。(二(er))商業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)——對于(yu)(yu)具有(you)(you)(you)(you)盈利目(mu)(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)投入市場，那么(me)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)管(guan)理人員對商業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)環境(jing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)了解(jie)程度(du)就(jiu)(jiu)決定了項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)成功(gong)度(du)。商業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)是(shi)(shi)不確(que)(que)定的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)、如(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)果無法(fa)準確(que)(que)預測消費者對新(xin)產(chan)(chan)品或(huo)(huo)服務(wu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)接(jie)(jie)受(shou)度(du)，那么(me)實施(shi)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)就(jiu)(jiu)必(bi)(bi)須(xu)接(jie)(jie)受(shou)這(zhe)種(zhong)不確(que)(que)定性(xing)所(suo)(suo)帶(dai)來的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)商業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。(三(san))執(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)行(xing)(xing)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)——哪(na)些(xie)(xie)與項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)計(ji)劃執(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)行(xing)(xing)相關的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)細節是(shi)(shi)未知的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)?例(li)如(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)，地理或(huo)(huo)物理條件對項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)執(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)行(xing)(xing)是(shi)(shi)否有(you)(you)(you)(you)影(ying)響?再比(bi)如(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)，如(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)果要(yao)(yao)在(zai)(zai)菲(fei)律(lv)賓的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)活火山地帶(dai)建一個(ge)發電站、就(jiu)(jiu)必(bi)(bi)須(xu)考慮巖漿對該項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)產(chan)(chan)生(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)響。同(tong)樣(yang)，缺乏培(pei)訓或(huo)(huo)低效的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)團隊成員也可(ke)能(neng)限制項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)執(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)行(xing)(xing)。執(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)行(xing)(xing)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)是(shi)(shi)一個(ge)籠統的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)概(gai)念，它(ta)是(shi)(shi)指在(zai)(zai)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)執(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)行(xing)(xing)過(guo)(guo)程中，對項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)產(chan)(chan)生(sheng)影(ying)響的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)潛在(zai)(zai)性(xing)時(shi)間(jian)或(huo)(huo)不確(que)(que)定性(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)評定。(四)政(zheng)(zheng)治風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)和(he)法(fa)律(lv)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)——這(zhe)種(zhong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)通(tong)常(chang)發生(sheng)在(zai)(zai)需要(yao)(yao)履行(xing)(xing)合同(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)，并且這(zhe)些(xie)(xie)合同(tong)具有(you)(you)(you)(you)嚴謹(jin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)條款和(he)條件受(shou)執(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)政(zheng)(zheng)者思(si)想(xiang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)響。一些(xie)(xie)合約(yue)條款(如(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)成本外加費用(yong)條款、固(gu)定成本、清算損(sun)失(shi)等(deng)(deng))可(ke)能(neng)會導致巨(ju)(ju)大的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。雖然企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)可(ke)以(yi)(yi)通(tong)過(guo)(guo)法(fa)務(wu)部(bu)來規避(bi)合約(yue)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，但(dan)(dan)有(you)(you)(you)(you)時(shi)要(yao)(yao)避(bi)免來自其他組織(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)合約(yue)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)是(shi)(shi)不可(ke)能(neng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)。例(li)如(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)，即(ji)(ji)使(shi)美國鐵路(lu)運(yun)送項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)所(suo)(suo)需的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)配(pei)件延時(shi)了，它(ta)們(men)(men)也不會接(jie)(jie)受(shou)懲罰(fa)，因(yin)為它(ta)們(men)(men)在(zai)(zai)鐵路(lu)運(yun)輸市場處(chu)于(yu)(yu)壟(long)斷地位，所(suo)(suo)以(yi)(yi)只要(yao)(yao)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)利用(yong)鐵路(lu)來運(yun)輸，就(jiu)(jiu)必(bi)(bi)須(xu)接(jie)(jie)受(shou)所(suo)(suo)有(you)(you)(you)(you)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)運(yun)輸風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。

摘要(yao)：在分析化(hua)工(gong)(gong)工(gong)(gong)藝設計流程(cheng)及(ji)產生(sheng)工(gong)(gong)藝風(feng)險因素的基礎上，提出了化(hua)工(gong)(gong)工(gong)(gong)藝設計中(zhong)安全(quan)風(feng)險識(shi)別及(ji)控制的必(bi)要(yao)性和對策建議，對提升化(hua)工(gong)(gong)項(xiang)目生(sheng)產安全(quan)水平具有積極的現實意義。

關鍵詞：安全風險(xian)識別；安全風險(xian)控(kong)制；化工工藝

據統計(ji)，2018年(nian)(nian)我(wo)國共發生化(hua)工(gong)事故(gu)176起，死亡(wang)223人。從地區分布來(lai)看，事故(gu)總量位居前列的省(sheng)份(fen)有(you)(you)山東、江蘇、遼(liao)寧等化(hua)學工(gong)業(ye)發展較為(wei)發達的省(sheng)份(fen)。從時間(jian)分布來(lai)看，以(yi)往(wang)主要(yao)集中在夏季(ji)及歲末年(nian)(nian)初(chu)，2018年(nian)(nian)事故(gu)發生起數較為(wei)平均，未(wei)有(you)(you)集中多發時間(jian)段。這就要(yao)求(qiu)做(zuo)好(hao)化(hua)工(gong)工(gong)藝設計(ji)安(an)全(quan)風險識別，提前做(zuo)好(hao)安(an)全(quan)防范預案，將(jiang)安(an)全(quan)隱(yin)患消(xiao)除在萌(meng)芽(ya)狀態。

1化工工藝設計

從圖1可知，化(hua)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)藝(yi)設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)計(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)是(shi)指原材料經化(hua)學(xue)反應(ying)(ying)(ying)，最終(zhong)轉(zhuan)變為(wei)(wei)化(hua)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)產(chan)品(pin)(pin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)過(guo)程。其(qi)(qi)中(zhong)，首(shou)要(yao)環(huan)節是(shi)原材料處理。即，將化(hua)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)原料進行凈(jing)化(hua)、提濃(nong)、混合、乳化(hua)、粉碎(sui)等(deng)處理后(hou)使(shi)原料質量滿足相(xiang)應(ying)(ying)(ying)標(biao)準。其(qi)(qi)次(ci)是(shi)化(hua)學(xue)反應(ying)(ying)(ying)環(huan)節。即原材料經預處理后(hou)，使(shi)其(qi)(qi)在(zai)相(xiang)應(ying)(ying)(ying)的(de)(de)(de)(de)壓力、溫(wen)度條(tiao)件(jian)下完成(cheng)化(hua)學(xue)反應(ying)(ying)(ying)的(de)(de)(de)(de)過(guo)程，這一(yi)(yi)過(guo)程包括(kuo)化(hua)學(xue)反應(ying)(ying)(ying)轉(zhuan)化(hua)率和(he)收率。再次(ci)是(shi)產(chan)品(pin)(pin)精制環(huan)節。在(zai)這一(yi)(yi)環(huan)節，主(zhu)要(yao)利用化(hua)學(xue)反應(ying)(ying)(ying)實(shi)現混合物(wu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)分離，并(bing)去(qu)掉其(qi)(qi)中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)雜質，以(yi)(yi)及沒有利用價(jia)值的(de)(de)(de)(de)廢棄物(wu)。產(chan)品(pin)(pin)精制的(de)(de)(de)(de)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)藝(yi)主(zhu)要(yao)包括(kuo)萃(cui)取、提純(chun)等(deng)，實(shi)現產(chan)品(pin)(pin)凈(jing)化(hua)，獲得(de)符合相(xiang)關規定(ding)或標(biao)準的(de)(de)(de)(de)產(chan)品(pin)(pin)。化(hua)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)藝(yi)設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)計(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)包括(kuo)概念(nian)設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)計(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)、中(zhong)試(shi)設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)計(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)、基礎設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)計(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)、初(chu)(chu)步設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)計(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)和(he)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)圖設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)計(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)等(deng)。其(qi)(qi)中(zhong)，概念(nian)設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)計(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)多為(wei)(wei)試(shi)前進行，概念(nian)設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)計(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)任務主(zhu)要(yao)是(shi)檢(jian)查生(sheng)產(chan)路(lu)線及工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)藝(yi)條(tiao)件(jian)是(shi)否合理。中(zhong)試(shi)設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)計(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)任務則(ze)(ze)主(zhu)要(yao)是(shi)檢(jian)驗小試(shi)所(suo)確定(ding)的(de)(de)(de)(de)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)藝(yi)路(lu)線及條(tiao)件(jian)，以(yi)(yi)及試(shi)制產(chan)品(pin)(pin)考核(he)使(shi)用性能，為(wei)(wei)實(shi)際生(sheng)產(chan)時(shi)獲得(de)相(xiang)應(ying)(ying)(ying)數據提供(gong)便利。基礎設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)計(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)任務則(ze)(ze)是(shi)技術開(kai)發(fa)階段的(de)(de)(de)(de)最終(zhong)研究成(cheng)果(guo)，主(zhu)要(yao)為(wei)(wei)后(hou)期(qi)實(shi)際生(sheng)產(chan)時(shi)提供(gong)裝置建設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)所(suo)需(xu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)技術要(yao)點。初(chu)(chu)步設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)計(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)作為(wei)(wei)精細(xi)化(hua)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)藝(yi)設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)計(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)第一(yi)(yi)環(huan)節，其(qi)(qi)初(chu)(chu)步設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)計(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)最終(zhong)成(cheng)果(guo)包括(kuo)設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)計(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)任務書(shu)、總(zong)概算書(shu)等(deng)。施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)圖設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)計(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)，主(zhu)要(yao)任務是(shi)依據化(hua)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)項目的(de)(de)(de)(de)審批意見、建筑(zhu)與(yu)非標(biao)準設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)備(bei)制作的(de)(de)(de)(de)相(xiang)關要(yao)求，把初(chu)(chu)步設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)計(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)所(suo)確定(ding)的(de)(de)(de)(de)相(xiang)關設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)計(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)原則(ze)(ze)、方案以(yi)(yi)文字、圖樣等(deng)方式把化(hua)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)藝(yi)及設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)備(bei)不同(tong)部分布置進行具體化(hua)[1-2]。

2產生化(hua)工(gong)工(gong)藝危(wei)險(xian)的(de)原(yuan)因(yin)分析

在國(guo)家“一帶(dai)一路”和“走(zou)出去”戰略的指引下，隨(sui)著世界一體化進(jin)程(cheng)加速(su)，國(guo)內(nei)越來(lai)越多的電力(li)(li)建(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)企業(ye)(ye)開始開展國(guo)際(ji)(ji)電力(li)(li)總(zong)(zong)承(cheng)包(bao)業(ye)(ye)務。鑒于國(guo)內(nei)電力(li)(li)建(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)企業(ye)(ye)在國(guo)際(ji)(ji)電力(li)(li)工程(cheng)EPC總(zong)(zong)承(cheng)包(bao)業(ye)(ye)務方(fang)面(mian)的經驗不(bu)足，管理理念的差異等諸(zhu)方(fang)面(mian)的原因，不(bu)少(shao)電力(li)(li)建(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)企業(ye)(ye)在進(jin)行國(guo)際(ji)(ji)電力(li)(li)工程(cheng)EPC總(zong)(zong)承(cheng)包(bao)項(xiang)目開發(fa)和執行的過程(cheng)中面(mian)臨著各種風(feng)險。若電力(li)(li)建(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)企業(ye)(ye)對各項(xiang)風(feng)險識別(bie)和評估不(bu)足，風(feng)險防范不(bu)利(li)，會導致電力(li)(li)建(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)企業(ye)(ye)的經濟損失和信譽受損。

1國際電(dian)力工程(cheng)EPC總承(cheng)包項目外(wai)部風險識別

國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)EPC總(zong)承(cheng)(cheng)包(bao)(bao)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)特(te)點(dian)為(wei)：項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)體(ti)量(liang)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)，合(he)同(tong)金(jin)(jin)額高(gao)(gao)，建(jian)設(she)(she)周期長，相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)關(guan)(guan)利(li)益(yi)方(fang)多(duo)(duo)(duo)，市(shi)場(chang)競爭激烈，綜(zong)合(he)實(shi)(shi)力(li)(li)(li)(li)要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)求(qiu)(qiu)高(gao)(gao)。國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)EPC項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理過程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)首要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)任務(wu)就(jiu)是(shi)外(wai)(wai)部(bu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)別。電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)建(jian)設(she)(she)企(qi)業(ye)通(tong)(tong)(tong)過對國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)EPC項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)特(te)征要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)進(jin)行(xing)充分(fen)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)研究，識(shi)別工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)各種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)潛在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)外(wai)(wai)部(bu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，分(fen)析(xi)引起風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)具體(ti)原因(yin)(yin)(yin)，判斷(duan)重要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)外(wai)(wai)部(bu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)(yin)(yin)素(su)(su)，為(wei)深入的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)外(wai)(wai)部(bu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)應對奠定良好的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)基礎。國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)EPC總(zong)承(cheng)(cheng)包(bao)(bao)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)外(wai)(wai)部(bu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)別過程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)中(zhong)，重點(dian)有(you)(you)以(yi)下(xia)幾個外(wai)(wai)部(bu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)(yin)(yin)素(su)(su)：1.1政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)治(zhi)因(yin)(yin)(yin)素(su)(su)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)EPC工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)治(zhi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)有(you)(you)：（1）內(nei)(nei)亂和(he)(he)(he)戰爭。在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)部(bu)分(fen)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)和(he)(he)(he)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)中(zhong)，國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)和(he)(he)(he)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)治(zhi)經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)矛盾(dun)有(you)(you)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)能(neng)導(dao)(dao)致(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)戰爭、內(nei)(nei)亂或(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)者(zhe)(zhe)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)變(bian)等(deng)(deng)(deng)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)治(zhi)動亂，同(tong)時(shi)極端恐怖活(huo)動或(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)者(zhe)(zhe)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)規(gui)模抗議示威(wei)也有(you)(you)發(fa)(fa)生的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)能(neng)。（2）黨派(pai)(pai)(pai)斗(dou)爭。在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)某(mou)些(xie)多(duo)(duo)(duo)黨派(pai)(pai)(pai)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)存(cun)(cun)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)執政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)黨和(he)(he)(he)反對黨派(pai)(pai)(pai)系(xi)(xi)之(zhi)間(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)治(zhi)斗(dou)爭，派(pai)(pai)(pai)系(xi)(xi)之(zhi)間(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)互相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)斗(dou)爭與博弈往往導(dao)(dao)致(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)局(ju)(ju)不(bu)(bu)(bu)夠(gou)穩定，從(cong)而(er)對工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)建(jian)設(she)(she)和(he)(he)(he)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)執行(xing)產(chan)生不(bu)(bu)(bu)利(li)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)。（3）政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)更(geng)改。在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)建(jian)設(she)(she)期內(nei)(nei)，項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)所在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)府可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)能(neng)會出于(yu)各種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)目(mu)(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)，改變(bian)關(guan)(guan)于(yu)市(shi)場(chang)、土(tu)地(di)(di)、規(gui)劃等(deng)(deng)(deng)方(fang)面具體(ti)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)，而(er)這(zhe)些(xie)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)變(bian)動都(dou)與項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)實(shi)(shi)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)執行(xing)緊(jin)密相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)關(guan)(guan)。若政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)變(bian)動導(dao)(dao)致(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)不(bu)(bu)(bu)再(zai)具有(you)(you)投(tou)資價(jia)(jia)值，業(ye)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)很(hen)(hen)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)能(neng)轉(zhuan)嫁風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，終(zhong)(zhong)止(zhi)(zhi)合(he)同(tong)，再(zai)加(jia)(jia)上(shang)賠償不(bu)(bu)(bu)足(zu)，最(zui)(zui)終(zhong)(zhong)導(dao)(dao)致(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)承(cheng)(cheng)包(bao)(bao)商(shang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)損(sun)失(shi)。（4）政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)府違約(yue)。項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)所在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)府由(you)于(yu)受(shou)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)形勢(shi)和(he)(he)(he)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)局(ju)(ju)勢(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)等(deng)(deng)(deng)原因(yin)(yin)(yin)，非(fei)法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)終(zhong)(zhong)止(zhi)(zhi)或(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)者(zhe)(zhe)接觸合(he)同(tong)協議，拒不(bu)(bu)(bu)履行(xing)所簽訂的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)合(he)同(tong)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)下(xia)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)責任和(he)(he)(he)義務(wu)，暫停項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)、終(zhong)(zhong)止(zhi)(zhi)合(he)同(tong)、拒付(fu)資金(jin)(jin)等(deng)(deng)(deng)行(xing)為(wei)。1.2經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)金(jin)(jin)融因(yin)(yin)(yin)素(su)(su)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)金(jin)(jin)融風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)是(shi)指(zhi)金(jin)(jin)融市(shi)場(chang)動蕩、經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)危機、通(tong)(tong)(tong)貨(huo)膨(peng)脹和(he)(he)(he)利(li)率(lv)匯(hui)(hui)率(lv)變(bian)動等(deng)(deng)(deng)宏(hong)觀經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)形勢(shi)變(bian)化(hua)引起的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)EPC工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)不(bu)(bu)(bu)僅(jin)受(shou)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)和(he)(he)(he)當地(di)(di)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)宏(hong)觀經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)情(qing)況的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)，而(er)且(qie)也會受(shou)到(dao)世界(jie)經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)局(ju)(ju)勢(shi)和(he)(he)(he)經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)環境的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)約(yue)。由(you)于(yu)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)環境局(ju)(ju)勢(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)復雜多(duo)(duo)(duo)變(bian)性(xing)，國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)面臨著的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)各種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)金(jin)(jin)融風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。其(qi)(qi)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)表現形式有(you)(you)通(tong)(tong)(tong)貨(huo)膨(peng)脹、外(wai)(wai)匯(hui)(hui)管(guan)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)、匯(hui)(hui)率(lv)波動等(deng)(deng)(deng)，這(zhe)些(xie)因(yin)(yin)(yin)素(su)(su)對項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)造(zao)價(jia)(jia)、項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)結(jie)算(suan)、利(li)潤(run)(run)轉(zhuan)移回(hui)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)等(deng)(deng)(deng)會造(zao)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)不(bu)(bu)(bu)利(li)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)。（1）較高(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)通(tong)(tong)(tong)貨(huo)膨(peng)脹率(lv)會導(dao)(dao)致(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)所在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)物價(jia)(jia)上(shang)漲，尤其(qi)(qi)是(shi)固定資產(chan)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)，以(yi)及人(ren)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)材料(liao)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)。這(zhe)無(wu)疑(yi)會增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)建(jian)設(she)(she)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)，導(dao)(dao)致(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)承(cheng)(cheng)包(bao)(bao)商(shang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)利(li)潤(run)(run)降低(di)、甚至(zhi)出現承(cheng)(cheng)包(bao)(bao)商(shang)實(shi)(shi)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)費用(yong)(yong)超過成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)情(qing)況，造(zao)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)虧(kui)損(sun)。（2）國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)多(duo)(duo)(duo)數在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)發(fa)(fa)展中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)和(he)(he)(he)欠(qian)發(fa)(fa)達(da)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)和(he)(he)(he)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)，由(you)于(yu)這(zhe)類國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)外(wai)(wai)匯(hui)(hui)極端缺(que)乏，經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)欠(qian)發(fa)(fa)達(da)，國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)貿易落后，因(yin)(yin)(yin)此這(zhe)類國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)通(tong)(tong)(tong)常會實(shi)(shi)行(xing)嚴格(ge)外(wai)(wai)匯(hui)(hui)管(guan)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)，從(cong)而(er)導(dao)(dao)致(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)承(cheng)(cheng)包(bao)(bao)商(shang)很(hen)(hen)難(nan)將國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)賺取的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)利(li)潤(run)(run)轉(zhuan)回(hui)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)，或(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)者(zhe)(zhe)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)匯(hui)(hui)出利(li)潤(run)(run)時(shi)繳納高(gao)(gao)額的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)手(shou)續(xu)費用(yong)(yong)，最(zui)(zui)后承(cheng)(cheng)受(shou)巨(ju)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)損(sun)失(shi)。（3）國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)合(he)同(tong)支付(fu)貨(huo)幣(bi)通(tong)(tong)(tong)常是(shi)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)通(tong)(tong)(tong)用(yong)(yong)貨(huo)幣(bi)和(he)(he)(he)東(dong)道國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)貨(huo)幣(bi)，而(er)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)型設(she)(she)備采購往往是(shi)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)進(jin)行(xing)，用(yong)(yong)人(ren)民幣(bi)支付(fu)。因(yin)(yin)(yin)此匯(hui)(hui)率(lv)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)波動，特(te)別是(shi)外(wai)(wai)幣(bi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)幅貶值，會造(zao)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)設(she)(she)備材料(liao)采購成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)幅增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)，最(zui)(zui)后導(dao)(dao)致(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)承(cheng)(cheng)包(bao)(bao)商(shang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)利(li)潤(run)(run)減少，甚至(zhi)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)虧(kui)損(sun)。1.3法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)律(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)因(yin)(yin)(yin)素(su)(su)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)EPC工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)律(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)因(yin)(yin)(yin)素(su)(su)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)有(you)(you)：（1）法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)律(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)條文不(bu)(bu)(bu)完(wan)善(shan)，在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)外(wai)(wai)商(shang)投(tou)資、勞工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)、稅(shui)(shui)收、外(wai)(wai)匯(hui)(hui)管(guan)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)及環保(bao)等(deng)(deng)(deng)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)關(guan)(guan)重要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)方(fang)面缺(que)乏清晰法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)律(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)度，給(gei)承(cheng)(cheng)包(bao)(bao)商(shang)收回(hui)利(li)潤(run)(run)收益(yi)帶(dai)來困難(nan)及不(bu)(bu)(bu)確定性(xing)；（2）法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)律(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)條文變(bian)更(geng)，主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)是(shi)一些(xie)發(fa)(fa)展中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)和(he)(he)(he)欠(qian)發(fa)(fa)達(da)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)和(he)(he)(he)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)律(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)度存(cun)(cun)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)一個逐(zhu)步完(wan)善(shan)和(he)(he)(he)與國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)接軌的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)過程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)，在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)這(zhe)一過程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)中(zhong)，法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)律(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)條文存(cun)(cun)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)著反復變(bian)更(geng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)能(neng)；（3）法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)不(bu)(bu)(bu)健全(quan)，有(you)(you)些(xie)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)和(he)(he)(he)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)雖然(ran)有(you)(you)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)對完(wan)善(shan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)律(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)體(ti)系(xi)(xi)，但(dan)是(shi)法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)律(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)度并(bing)不(bu)(bu)(bu)健全(quan)，法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)律(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)環境堪憂，實(shi)(shi)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)執法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)行(xing)為(wei)隨意性(xing)強(qiang)，并(bing)不(bu)(bu)(bu)完(wan)全(quan)符合(he)法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)律(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)規(gui)定，因(yin)(yin)(yin)此很(hen)(hen)多(duo)(duo)(duo)糾紛無(wu)法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)通(tong)(tong)(tong)過司法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)序(xu)解決(jue)，企(qi)業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)合(he)法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)權益(yi)無(wu)法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)得到(dao)有(you)(you)效保(bao)護。1.4勞工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)因(yin)(yin)(yin)素(su)(su)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)外(wai)(wai)資本(ben)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)義國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)勞工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)保(bao)護相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)關(guan)(guan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)律(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)度日趨完(wan)善(shan)，但(dan)同(tong)時(shi)由(you)于(yu)勞工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)和(he)(he)(he)雇(gu)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)之(zhi)間(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)關(guan)(guan)系(xi)(xi)時(shi)有(you)(you)矛盾(dun)，勞資糾紛和(he)(he)(he)罷工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)事件(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)生可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)能(neng)性(xing)較高(gao)(gao)，風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)較大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)。另外(wai)(wai)，涉及到(dao)員(yuan)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)聘(pin)(pin)用(yong)(yong)解聘(pin)(pin)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)序(xu)，福利(li)薪酬(chou)等(deng)(deng)(deng)強(qiang)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)性(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)律(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)規(gui)范(fan)，會對雇(gu)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)提出更(geng)高(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)本(ben)地(di)(di)化(hua)人(ren)力(li)(li)(li)(li)資源管(guan)理的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)求(qiu)(qiu)，以(yi)及相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)關(guan)(guan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)約(yue)束(shu)。由(you)于(yu)當地(di)(di)勞動效率(lv)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)低(di)下(xia)，和(he)(he)(he)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)作習慣、文化(hua)習慣差(cha)異(yi)巨(ju)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)，不(bu)(bu)(bu)善(shan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)管(guan)理很(hen)(hen)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)能(neng)會造(zao)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)勞資關(guan)(guan)系(xi)(xi)緊(jin)張，甚至(zhi)導(dao)(dao)致(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)當地(di)(di)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)府部(bu)門的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)罰款。1.5稅(shui)(shui)務(wu)因(yin)(yin)(yin)素(su)(su)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)外(wai)(wai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)稅(shui)(shui)法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)、稅(shui)(shui)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)和(he)(he)(he)中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)稅(shui)(shui)務(wu)法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)律(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)度存(cun)(cun)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)著巨(ju)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)差(cha)異(yi)，在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)具體(ti)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)執行(xing)過程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)中(zhong)，由(you)于(yu)對項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)所在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)稅(shui)(shui)務(wu)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)度、稅(shui)(shui)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)、稅(shui)(shui)率(lv)以(yi)及稅(shui)(shui)務(wu)優惠(hui)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)研究不(bu)(bu)(bu)足(zu)，很(hen)(hen)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)能(neng)導(dao)(dao)致(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)稅(shui)(shui)務(wu)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)核(he)算(suan)漏項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)或(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)者(zhe)(zhe)金(jin)(jin)額計算(suan)錯誤(wu)，從(cong)而(er)存(cun)(cun)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)偷(tou)稅(shui)(shui)漏稅(shui)(shui)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，最(zui)(zui)終(zhong)(zhong)導(dao)(dao)致(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)核(he)算(suan)不(bu)(bu)(bu)足(zu)，項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)造(zao)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)虧(kui)損(sun)。1.6自然(ran)因(yin)(yin)(yin)素(su)(su)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)EPC工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)范(fan)圍大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)，建(jian)設(she)(she)周期長，而(er)且(qie)參(can)與工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)執行(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)供應商(shang)和(he)(he)(he)分(fen)包(bao)(bao)商(shang)涉及全(quan)球不(bu)(bu)(bu)同(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)和(he)(he)(he)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)，因(yin)(yin)(yin)此有(you)(you)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)能(neng)單點(dian)遭(zao)遇各種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)自然(ran)災(zai)害(hai)(hai)。如果單點(dian)遭(zao)受(shou)到(dao)自然(ran)災(zai)害(hai)(hai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)，很(hen)(hen)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)能(neng)導(dao)(dao)致(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)延遲交(jiao)貨(huo)或(huo)(huo)(huo)(huo)者(zhe)(zhe)施工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)延遲，必然(ran)造(zao)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)建(jian)設(she)(she)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)期的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)延誤(wu)，建(jian)設(she)(she)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)増加(jia)(jia)。自然(ran)因(yin)(yin)(yin)素(su)(su)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)包(bao)(bao)括：氣候變(bian)化(hua)；地(di)(di)理、地(di)(di)質風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)；其(qi)(qi)他不(bu)(bu)(bu)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)抗力(li)(li)(li)(li)，主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)包(bao)(bao)括不(bu)(bu)(bu)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)預見的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)地(di)(di)震、暴雪、冰雹、暴雨、火(huo)災(zai)、凍雨、泥石流、塌方(fang)、滑坡、火(huo)山(shan)爆發(fa)(fa)、洪水、臺風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)、海(hai)嘯(xiao)等(deng)(deng)(deng)不(bu)(bu)(bu)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)抗自然(ran)力(li)(li)(li)(li)事件(jian)。

2國際電力工程EPC總承包項目(mu)外部風險對(dui)策

為了(le)(le)(le)保證工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)進(jin)度(du)(du)、成(cheng)本(ben)、質(zhi)量(liang)、安(an)全(quan)目(mu)(mu)(mu)標(biao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)實(shi)(shi)現，針(zhen)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)以(yi)上識(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)出(chu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)外部風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因素，根(gen)(gen)據(ju)(ju)(ju)(ju)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管控(kong)(kong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)原理(li)，采(cai)取(qu)有(you)(you)(you)(you)效(xiao)(xiao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管控(kong)(kong)和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)策(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)，減(jian)(jian)少(shao)或(huo)(huo)者(zhe)(zhe)消除有(you)(you)(you)(you)關(guan)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，制定(ding)相(xiang)關(guan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)策(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)。2.1政治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)策(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)。政治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)全(quan)局會(hui)產(chan)生(sheng)重(zhong)大影響，一(yi)旦(dan)(dan)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，有(you)(you)(you)(you)可能(neng)會(hui)使(shi)承(cheng)包商(shang)(shang)嚴(yan)重(zhong)虧(kui)損(sun)(sun)。所(suo)以(yi)必(bi)須深入調(diao)(diao)研和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)了(le)(le)(le)解(jie)當(dang)(dang)地(di)(di)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)政治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)情(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)并(bing)制定(ding)相(xiang)應(ying)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)策(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)：做(zuo)好(hao)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程所(suo)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)國的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)政治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)(shi)別(bie)及(ji)(ji)評估(gu)；與(yu)(yu)(yu)國際或(huo)(huo)當(dang)(dang)地(di)(di)有(you)(you)(you)(you)實(shi)(shi)力的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)企(qi)業組(zu)成(cheng)聯(lian)營體；購(gou)買政治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)其他必(bi)要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程保險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)；與(yu)(yu)(yu)當(dang)(dang)地(di)(di)政府(fu)簽署(shu)承(cheng)諾保證協(xie)議(yi)，一(yi)旦(dan)(dan)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)政治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，可根(gen)(gen)據(ju)(ju)(ju)(ju)協(xie)議(yi)向當(dang)(dang)地(di)(di)政府(fu)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)出(chu)索賠；加強(qiang)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)現場的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)保衛安(an)全(quan)措施(shi)。2.2經(jing)濟(ji)金(jin)(jin)融(rong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)策(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)。經(jing)濟(ji)金(jin)(jin)融(rong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)策(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)有(you)(you)(you)(you)：根(gen)(gen)據(ju)(ju)(ju)(ju)匯(hui)(hui)率變動情(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)，選擇恰當(dang)(dang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)結(jie)算(suan)貨幣或(huo)(huo)者(zhe)(zhe)多(duo)種貨幣組(zu)合(he)計價和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)結(jie)算(suan)，選擇適合(he)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)外匯(hui)(hui)交(jiao)(jiao)易方(fang)式(shi)；選擇合(he)理(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)資(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)結(jie)構(gou)(gou)和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)融(rong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)模式(shi)；全(quan)面規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)預備(bei)費用(yong)(yong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)資(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)安(an)排，對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)于(yu)不可預見情(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)下(xia)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)損(sun)(sun)失，要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)根(gen)(gen)據(ju)(ju)(ju)(ju)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)具體情(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)以(yi)往積(ji)累的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)經(jing)驗，提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)出(chu)充足的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)準備(bei)金(jin)(jin)，來(lai)保證項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)抵御風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)能(neng)力；完善資(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)籌(chou)(chou)集計劃(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)，根(gen)(gen)據(ju)(ju)(ju)(ju)資(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)使(shi)用(yong)(yong)計劃(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)現金(jin)(jin)流(liu)來(lai)整體考慮(lv)資(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)籌(chou)(chou)措的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)方(fang)案和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)計劃(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)；加強(qiang)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程實(shi)(shi)施(shi)階段成(cheng)本(ben)費用(yong)(yong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)計劃(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)與(yu)(yu)(yu)嚴(yan)格(ge)(ge)執行(xing)(xing)(xing)資(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)計劃(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)是降(jiang)(jiang)低經(jing)濟(ji)金(jin)(jin)融(rong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)，但計劃(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)落地(di)(di)實(shi)(shi)施(shi)需要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)依靠資(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)計劃(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)后(hou)期(qi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)執行(xing)(xing)(xing)控(kong)(kong)制來(lai)保證，這樣才能(neng)有(you)(you)(you)(you)效(xiao)(xiao)降(jiang)(jiang)低相(xiang)關(guan)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。2.3法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)律(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)策(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)。法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)律(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)策(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)有(you)(you)(you)(you)：進(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)律(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)環(huan)境盡(jin)職(zhi)調(diao)(diao)査(cha)；在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)開(kai)發(fa)(fa)初期(qi)，承(cheng)包商(shang)(shang)有(you)(you)(you)(you)必(bi)要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)通(tong)過法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)律(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)環(huan)境盡(jin)職(zhi)調(diao)(diao)查(cha)全(quan)面了(le)(le)(le)解(jie)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程所(suo)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)國各(ge)方(fang)面的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)律(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)規(gui)(gui)定(ding)和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)相(xiang)關(guan)實(shi)(shi)踐；降(jiang)(jiang)低合(he)同(tong)法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)律(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)期(qi)階段，先(xian)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程所(suo)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)國的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)各(ge)項(xiang)(xiang)法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)律(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)條(tiao)款進(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)調(diao)(diao)查(cha)研究，評估(gu)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程實(shi)(shi)施(shi)過程中(zhong)(zhong)需要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)規(gui)(gui)避(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)事項(xiang)(xiang)；認真審查(cha)合(he)同(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)各(ge)項(xiang)(xiang)條(tiao)款，在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)遵循當(dang)(dang)地(di)(di)法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)律(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)下(xia)，盡(jin)量(liang)爭(zheng)取(qu)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)承(cheng)包商(shang)(shang)有(you)(you)(you)(you)利(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)條(tiao)款；約定(ding)有(you)(you)(you)(you)利(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)適用(yong)(yong)法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)律(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)爭(zheng)議(yi)解(jie)決(jue)方(fang)式(shi)，減(jian)(jian)少(shao)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)方(fang)隨意將爭(zheng)議(yi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)交(jiao)(jiao)爭(zheng)議(yi)解(jie)決(jue)機構(gou)(gou)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)可能(neng)性(xing)，有(you)(you)(you)(you)利(li)(li)于(yu)促進(jin)雙方(fang)友(you)好(hao)協(xie)商(shang)(shang)解(jie)決(jue)爭(zheng)議(yi)；爭(zheng)取(qu)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程所(suo)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)國以(yi)外的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)國家或(huo)(huo)地(di)(di)區進(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)仲裁；結(jie)合(he)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)具體情(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)考慮(lv)應(ying)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)知識(shi)(shi)(shi)產(chan)權風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，考慮(lv)采(cai)取(qu)專利(li)(li)申(shen)請(qing)戰略(lve)、規(gui)(gui)避(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)設計等相(xiang)關(guan)知識(shi)(shi)(shi)產(chan)權風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)應(ying)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)措施(shi)；聘(pin)請(qing)當(dang)(dang)地(di)(di)專業律(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)師和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)機構(gou)(gou)，降(jiang)(jiang)低因對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)當(dang)(dang)地(di)(di)法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)律(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)條(tiao)文不清或(huo)(huo)與(yu)(yu)(yu)政府(fu)關(guan)系(xi)不熟悉的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。2.4勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)策(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)。勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)策(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)有(you)(you)(you)(you)：充分(fen)(fen)(fen)調(diao)(diao)研和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)了(le)(le)(le)解(jie)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動者(zhe)(zhe)福利(li)(li)待遇、勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動條(tiao)件、勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)動強(qiang)度(du)(du)、聘(pin)用(yong)(yong)及(ji)(ji)解(jie)雇和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)罷(ba)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)等方(fang)面的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)強(qiang)制性(xing)法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)律(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)規(gui)(gui)范，規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)資(zi)(zi)(zi)關(guan)系(xi)及(ji)(ji)與(yu)(yu)(yu)當(dang)(dang)地(di)(di)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)組(zu)織形式(shi)，以(yi)規(gui)(gui)避(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)律(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)；了(le)(le)(le)解(jie)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)合(he)同(tong)種類，規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)組(zu)成(cheng)比例，根(gen)(gen)據(ju)(ju)(ju)(ju)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程所(suo)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)國的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)，明確(que)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)外資(zi)(zi)(zi)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)務(wu)(wu)人(ren)員(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)資(zi)(zi)(zi)質(zhi)要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)求及(ji)(ji)比例，提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)做(zuo)好(hao)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)務(wu)(wu)用(yong)(yong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)計劃(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)；通(tong)過法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)律(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)條(tiao)款規(gui)(gui)避(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)降(jiang)(jiang)低罷(ba)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)損(sun)(sun)失。根(gen)(gen)據(ju)(ju)(ju)(ju)法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)律(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)罷(ba)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)行(xing)(xing)(xing)為的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)約束，來(lai)保護(hu)員(yuan)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)人(ren)身安(an)全(quan)和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)設備(bei)財產(chan)免受損(sun)(sun)失；保障員(yuan)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)安(an)全(quan)，落實(shi)(shi)員(yuan)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)保險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)安(an)排好(hao)安(an)保工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)作(zuo)。2.5稅務(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)策(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)。稅務(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)策(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)有(you)(you)(you)(you)：徹底摸清項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)所(suo)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)國的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)稅務(wu)(wu)政策(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)，重(zhong)點要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)確(que)保所(suo)掌握的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)稅務(wu)(wu)政策(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)依據(ju)(ju)(ju)(ju)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)全(quan)面性(xing)、準確(que)性(xing)和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)有(you)(you)(you)(you)效(xiao)(xiao)性(xing)，以(yi)聘(pin)用(yong)(yong)當(dang)(dang)地(di)(di)稅務(wu)(wu)事務(wu)(wu)所(suo)進(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)支持(chi)；確(que)定(ding)各(ge)方(fang)稅費責任劃(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)分(fen)(fen)(fen)；選擇合(he)適的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)投標(biao)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)體；多(duo)環(huan)節(jie)、多(duo)方(fang)式(shi)合(he)理(li)避(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)稅，對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)所(suo)得(de)稅和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)流(liu)轉稅通(tong)過合(he)并(bing)納(na)稅、資(zi)(zi)(zi)本(ben)結(jie)構(gou)(gou)、價格(ge)(ge)轉移、甲乙方(fang)合(he)同(tong)模式(shi)等方(fang)式(shi)方(fang)法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)進(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)籌(chou)(chou)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)；以(yi)資(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)渠(qu)道的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)籌(chou)(chou)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)為核(he)心，合(he)理(li)安(an)排各(ge)種資(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)進(jin)入、退(tui)出(chu)渠(qu)道；避(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)免稅務(wu)(wu)過度(du)(du)籌(chou)(chou)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)帶來(lai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)偷(tou)稅嫌疑。2.6自(zi)(zi)(zi)然風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)策(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)。自(zi)(zi)(zi)然風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)策(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)(ce)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)有(you)(you)(you)(you)：編制工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)期(qi)計劃(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)時(shi)(shi)充分(fen)(fen)(fen)考慮(lv)氣(qi)候(hou)情(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)；對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程所(suo)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)地(di)(di)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)地(di)(di)理(li)、地(di)(di)質(zhi)及(ji)(ji)沿(yan)途線(xian)路考察，將地(di)(di)震、火山爆發(fa)(fa)等風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)都(dou)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)考慮(lv)，對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)運輸路徑提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)調(diao)(diao)研考察，對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)需要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)修路和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)橋梁加固的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)情(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)給予充分(fen)(fen)(fen)考慮(lv)，在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)成(cheng)本(ben)和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)期(qi)上都(dou)做(zuo)好(hao)裕度(du)(du)；做(zuo)好(hao)投保工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)作(zuo)。在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)不可抗力發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)時(shi)(shi)，除在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)合(he)同(tong)中(zhong)(zhong)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)和(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)業主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)進(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)責任劃(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)分(fen)(fen)(fen)，承(cheng)包商(shang)(shang)也需要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)做(zuo)好(hao)投保工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)作(zuo)，將自(zi)(zi)(zi)然風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)轉嫁給保險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)公司(si)，以(yi)降(jiang)(jiang)低風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)時(shi)(shi)帶來(lai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)損(sun)(sun)失。

3結論