摘要(yao)：風(feng)險(xian)投資(zi)(zi)具(ju)有高(gao)風(feng)險(xian)、高(gao)收(shou)益(yi)等特點，其在我(wo)國高(gao)新技術(shu)持續發展的過程中(zhong)起到(dao)了(le)非常大的作用(yong)。本文分析了(le)風(feng)險(xian)投資(zi)(zi)中(zhong)的各方面(mian)風(feng)險(xian)因素，論述了(le)風(feng)險(xian)識別(bie)與(yu)風(feng)險(xian)評價的主要(yao)內(nei)容，并(bing)在此基(ji)礎上提出(chu)了(le)風(feng)險(xian)投資(zi)(zi)的具(ju)體風(feng)險(xian)控制策(ce)略，以供相關人員參考。

關鍵詞：風(feng)險(xian)(xian)投資;風(feng)險(xian)(xian)識別;風(feng)險(xian)(xian)評價(jia);風(feng)險(xian)(xian)控制;風(feng)險(xian)(xian)轉移

風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)投(tou)資(zi)又叫做創業(ye)投(tou)資(zi)，主要(yao)為風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)投(tou)資(zi)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)提(ti)供相(xiang)(xiang)應(ying)的(de)(de)(de)資(zi)金等支持。實(shi)質來(lai)講，風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)投(tou)資(zi)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)與普通(tong)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)之間并(bing)沒有較大差異，它是(shi)在近些年科學技術(shu)快速(su)發展的(de)(de)(de)基礎上形成的(de)(de)(de)產物。風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)投(tou)資(zi)大都無擔(dan)保與抵押，主要(yao)是(shi)針(zhen)對(dui)高新技術(shu)領域的(de)(de)(de)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)投(tou)資(zi)，通(tong)常需要(yao)面(mian)臨較大的(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)，而也因此能夠獲得相(xiang)(xiang)對(dui)較高的(de)(de)(de)收益。風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)投(tou)資(zi)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)大都需要(yao)較多資(zi)金投(tou)入，并(bing)且項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)資(zi)金的(de)(de)(de)流動性不(bu)強，投(tou)資(zi)期(qi)限也相(xiang)(xiang)對(dui)較長(chang)(chang)，屬于中長(chang)(chang)期(qi)積極性投(tou)資(zi)。因此，為充分保證自(zi)身(shen)收益，風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)投(tou)資(zi)企業(ye)必須對(dui)投(tou)資(zi)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)采取合理的(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)識(shi)別、評價以及控制等措(cuo)施。

1風(feng)險投資(zi)中的(de)主要(yao)風(feng)險類型

1.1市場(chang)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。在新(xin)時(shi)(shi)(shi)期(qi)市場(chang)經濟中(zhong)(zhong)，各種產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)品(pin)(pin)都(dou)具(ju)有(you)(you)盈(ying)或虧的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)可(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)性和不(bu)確(que)定(ding)性，這給風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)帶來(lai)一(yi)定(ding)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)市場(chang)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)素。市場(chang)環(huan)境(jing)瞬(shun)息萬變，其中(zhong)(zhong)蘊(yun)含著諸(zhu)多不(bu)確(que)定(ding)性，并(bing)且產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)品(pin)(pin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)市場(chang)需(xu)(xu)(xu)求也具(ju)有(you)(you)較(jiao)(jiao)強的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)不(bu)確(que)定(ding)性[1]，同時(shi)(shi)(shi)，新(xin)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)品(pin)(pin)從投(tou)入(ru)(ru)市場(chang)到(dao)被消費(fei)者(zhe)接受所(suo)需(xu)(xu)(xu)時(shi)(shi)(shi)間(jian)也具(ju)有(you)(you)較(jiao)(jiao)強的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)不(bu)確(que)定(ding)性。盡(jin)管(guan)(guan)部(bu)分產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)品(pin)(pin)具(ju)有(you)(you)較(jiao)(jiao)高(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)含量，但在一(yi)定(ding)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)市場(chang)環(huan)境(jing)中(zhong)(zhong)，并(bing)不(bu)受消費(fei)者(zhe)青(qing)睞(lai)。1.2技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)中(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)素是(shi)(shi)指(zhi)在進(jin)行高(gao)新(xin)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)品(pin)(pin)創(chuang)造(zao)方(fang)面(mian)(mian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)過(guo)程中(zhong)(zhong)，因(yin)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)因(yin)素而(er)造(zao)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)品(pin)(pin)研(yan)發(fa)失敗(bai)后無(wu)法(fa)實現批量化生產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)可(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)性。技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)是(shi)(shi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)所(suo)面(mian)(mian)臨的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)要風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)類(lei)型之一(yi)。高(gao)新(xin)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)品(pin)(pin)研(yan)發(fa)環(huan)節(jie)(jie)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)取(qu)決于(yu)(yu)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)品(pin)(pin)研(yan)發(fa)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)功與否(fou)，在投(tou)入(ru)(ru)諸(zhu)多資(zi)(zi)源后研(yan)發(fa)目標是(shi)(shi)否(fou)達成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)。中(zhong)(zhong)間(jian)試驗環(huan)節(jie)(jie)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)取(qu)決于(yu)(yu)研(yan)發(fa)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)果(guo)能(neng)(neng)(neng)夠轉(zhuan)化為商品(pin)(pin)，或是(shi)(shi)否(fou)具(ju)有(you)(you)實用價值。規(gui)模(mo)化生產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)環(huan)節(jie)(jie)所(suo)面(mian)(mian)臨的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)取(qu)決于(yu)(yu)在技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)問(wen)題(ti)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影響下能(neng)(neng)(neng)夠實現批量生產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)，或在新(xin)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)影響下原技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)是(shi)(shi)否(fou)過(guo)于(yu)(yu)落后。1.3資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)中(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)主要是(shi)(shi)指(zhi)由于(yu)(yu)未能(neng)(neng)(neng)及時(shi)(shi)(shi)滿(man)足風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)實際發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)所(suo)學而(er)造(zao)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)創(chuang)新(xin)失敗(bai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)可(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)性。隨著高(gao)新(xin)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)進(jin)一(yi)步發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)，其所(suo)需(xu)(xu)(xu)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)也會(hui)更多，如果(guo)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)公(gong)司無(wu)法(fa)及時(shi)(shi)(shi)籌集到(dao)充足的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)，將(jiang)會(hui)導致(zhi)高(gao)新(xin)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)供應方(fang)面(mian)(mian)發(fa)生斷層現象，從而(er)造(zao)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)難以(yi)繼續開展(zhan)(zhan)生產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)經營活動，進(jin)而(er)導致(zhi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)以(yi)失敗(bai)告終。1.4管(guan)(guan)理風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)素。管(guan)(guan)理風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)是(shi)(shi)由于(yu)(yu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)管(guan)(guan)理不(bu)到(dao)位而(er)造(zao)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)其創(chuang)新(xin)與發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)失敗(bai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)可(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)性。管(guan)(guan)理風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)出(chu)現主要是(shi)(shi)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)組織與管(guan)(guan)理體系不(bu)完善(shan)、內部(bu)員工業(ye)(ye)務能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)不(bu)足而(er)造(zao)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)。風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)內部(bu)員工主要包括(kuo)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)類(lei)員工、科研(yan)類(lei)員工以(yi)及技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)發(fa)明人員，這些員工大都(dou)沒有(you)(you)較(jiao)(jiao)強的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)管(guan)(guan)理能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)，因(yin)而(er)會(hui)給企(qi)業(ye)(ye)管(guan)(guan)理方(fang)面(mian)(mian)造(zao)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)很大風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。同時(shi)(shi)(shi)，風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)組織與管(guan)(guan)理體系不(bu)夠完善(shan)，難以(yi)有(you)(you)效約束(shu)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)管(guan)(guan)理人員的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)行為，從而(er)引(yin)發(fa)貪(tan)污受賄以(yi)及私挪公(gong)款等道德風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。

2風(feng)險投資的風(feng)險識別

1養老住宅項目(mu)投資(zi)風險影響因素(su)分析

通(tong)過(guo)國內學(xue)者對(dui)養(yang)(yang)(yang)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)住(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)宅(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)投資(zi)(zi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)研究、結(jie)合養(yang)(yang)(yang)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)住(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)宅(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)特(te)點、發(fa)展現狀(zhuang)及(ji)(ji)面臨的(de)(de)問題，系(xi)統地(di)的(de)(de)分(fen)析養(yang)(yang)(yang)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)住(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)宅(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)所(suo)有風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)(yin)素，從政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、技術(shu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、市場風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、運(yun)營(ying)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，建(jian)立了養(yang)(yang)(yang)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)住(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)宅(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)投資(zi)(zi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評價指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)體系(xi)[3-5]。1.1政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)是指(zhi)(zhi)養(yang)(yang)(yang)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)住(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)宅(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)在(zai)(zai)投資(zi)(zi)、建(jian)設及(ji)(ji)運(yun)營(ying)等各個階段受到國家政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)波動(dong)帶來(lai)的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。目(mu)(mu)前政(zheng)(zheng)府部門出臺了一(yi)系(xi)列政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)鼓勵民間(jian)資(zi)(zi)本投資(zi)(zi)養(yang)(yang)(yang)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)住(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)宅(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)，但很(hen)多(duo)政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)難以落地(di)、無(wu)實質性(xing)優惠(hui)，對(dui)養(yang)(yang)(yang)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)住(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)宅(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)投資(zi)(zi)造(zao)成一(yi)定的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。1.2技術(shu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)技術(shu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)是指(zhi)(zhi)養(yang)(yang)(yang)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)住(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)宅(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)在(zai)(zai)實施過(guo)程中受到項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)選(xuan)(xuan)址、適老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)化(hua)設計等不確定因(yin)(yin)素影(ying)響(xiang)帶來(lai)的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。養(yang)(yang)(yang)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)住(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)宅(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)區(qu)別于傳統住(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)宅(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)是養(yang)(yang)(yang)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)與住(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)宅(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)相(xiang)結(jie)合，需要(yao)考慮更多(duo)的(de)(de)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年人的(de)(de)喜好來(lai)進行(xing)選(xuan)(xuan)址和施工。1.3經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)是指(zhi)(zhi)受經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)有關的(de)(de)影(ying)響(xiang)，造(zao)成經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)原因(yin)(yin)有很(hen)多(duo)：項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)所(suo)在(zai)(zai)地(di)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)發(fa)展水平、通(tong)貨(huo)膨脹、融(rong)資(zi)(zi)及(ji)(ji)利(li)率變(bian)化(hua)。1.4市場風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)養(yang)(yang)(yang)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)住(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)宅(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)作(zuo)為一(yi)種新型的(de)(de)養(yang)(yang)(yang)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)產品，老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)年人對(dui)養(yang)(yang)(yang)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)住(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)宅(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)了解偏少(shao)，很(hen)難從思想上接受與認可，這將對(dui)養(yang)(yang)(yang)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)住(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)宅(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)銷(xiao)售造(zao)成困難，造(zao)成投資(zi)(zi)商損(sun)失。因(yin)(yin)此養(yang)(yang)(yang)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)住(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)宅(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)在(zai)(zai)投資(zi)(zi)前對(dui)開(kai)發(fa)區(qu)域市場風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)分(fen)析極其(qi)重要(yao)。1.5項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)運(yun)營(ying)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)養(yang)(yang)(yang)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)住(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)宅(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)作(zuo)為住(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)宅(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)與養(yang)(yang)(yang)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)兩者相(xiang)結(jie)合，項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)在(zai)(zai)建(jian)成后(hou)的(de)(de)養(yang)(yang)(yang)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)服務(wu)(wu)運(yun)營(ying)管(guan)理尤為重要(yao)，開(kai)發(fa)商重視項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)銷(xiao)售與租賃，而(er)忽視項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)建(jian)成后(hou)養(yang)(yang)(yang)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)服務(wu)(wu)運(yun)營(ying)。養(yang)(yang)(yang)老(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)(lao)服務(wu)(wu)運(yun)營(ying)管(guan)理的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)為投資(zi)(zi)商提供的(de)(de)配套服務(wu)(wu)設施、團隊的(de)(de)經(jing)(jing)驗及(ji)(ji)服務(wu)(wu)水平。

2養老(lao)住(zhu)宅投資(zi)風險評(ping)價模型構建層次分析法

（AnalyticHierarchyProcess，AHP）是(shi)將(jiang)(jiang)與(yu)決(jue)策(ce)總是(shi)有(you)關(guan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)元素分(fen)(fen)(fen)解成目標(biao)(biao)、準(zhun)則、方(fang)案等層(ceng)(ceng)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)，在此基礎上(shang)進(jin)行(xing)定量(liang)與(yu)定性(xing)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)，美國運(yun)(yun)籌(chou)學家(jia)、匹茨堡大(da)學教(jiao)授薩蒂于20世紀70年代初(chu)提(ti)(ti)出的(de)(de)(de)(de)一種(zhong)層(ceng)(ceng)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)權重(zhong)(zhong)決(jue)策(ce)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)方(fang)法，80年代初(chu)引進(jin)我國。應(ying)用這種(zhong)方(fang)法，決(jue)策(ce)者通過(guo)(guo)將(jiang)(jiang)復雜問題(ti)分(fen)(fen)(fen)解為(wei)(wei)(wei)若干層(ceng)(ceng)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)和(he)(he)若干因素，在此基礎之(zhi)上(shang)進(jin)行(xing)比較和(he)(he)運(yun)(yun)算，得出不同(tong)因素間(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)權重(zhong)(zhong)，從而為(wei)(wei)(wei)最佳決(jue)策(ce)提(ti)(ti)供依據。采用層(ceng)(ceng)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)法確定指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)權重(zhong)(zhong)，一般(ban)步驟如下(xia)[6-8]：2.1建立遞(di)階(jie)層(ceng)(ceng)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)結構運(yun)(yun)用層(ceng)(ceng)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)法解決(jue)問題(ti)，首(shou)先要(yao)將(jiang)(jiang)評(ping)價(jia)(jia)體系(xi)(xi)(xi)中的(de)(de)(de)(de)各項指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)層(ceng)(ceng)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)化(hua)處理(li)，表(biao)明各層(ceng)(ceng)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)之(zhi)間(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)關(guan)系(xi)(xi)(xi)。本文將(jiang)(jiang)評(ping)價(jia)(jia)體系(xi)(xi)(xi)分(fen)(fen)(fen)為(wei)(wei)(wei)三層(ceng)(ceng)：第(di)一層(ceng)(ceng)為(wei)(wei)(wei)目標(biao)(biao)層(ceng)(ceng)，即(ji)應(ying)用AHP所要(yao)達到(dao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)評(ping)價(jia)(jia)標(biao)(biao)準(zhun)自身有(you)效性(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)目標(biao)(biao)；第(di)二層(ceng)(ceng)為(wei)(wei)(wei)準(zhun)則層(ceng)(ceng)，包(bao)括標(biao)(biao)準(zhun)的(de)(de)(de)(de)編制水平(ping)、標(biao)(biao)準(zhun)的(de)(de)(de)(de)先進(jin)性(xing)和(he)(he)標(biao)(biao)準(zhun)的(de)(de)(de)(de)功能三個判(pan)斷(duan)層(ceng)(ceng)面；第(di)三層(ceng)(ceng)為(wei)(wei)(wei)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)層(ceng)(ceng)，共包(bao)含21項指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)，具(ju)體指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)體系(xi)(xi)(xi)見表(biao)1。2.2構造(zao)判(pan)斷(duan)矩(ju)(ju)(ju)(ju)陣(zhen)(zhen)判(pan)斷(duan)矩(ju)(ju)(ju)(ju)陣(zhen)(zhen)就是(shi)將(jiang)(jiang)各個因素之(zhi)間(jian)進(jin)行(xing)相(xiang)互比較，判(pan)斷(duan)哪(na)個因素更重(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)，并對(dui)重(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)性(xing)程度(du)進(jin)行(xing)賦值，本文按1-9進(jin)行(xing)專家(jia)打分(fen)(fen)(fen)，重(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)性(xing)標(biao)(biao)度(du)含義如表(biao)2。對(dui)同(tong)一層(ceng)(ceng)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)各因素重(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)程度(du)的(de)(de)(de)(de)賦值就構成了判(pan)斷(duan)矩(ju)(ju)(ju)(ju)陣(zhen)(zhen)。2.3計算權向(xiang)量(liang)求(qiu)解判(pan)斷(duan)矩(ju)(ju)(ju)(ju)陣(zhen)(zhen)的(de)(de)(de)(de)最大(da)特征根(gen)λmax，將(jiang)(jiang)最大(da)特征根(gen)對(dui)應(ying)的(de)(de)(de)(de)特征向(xiang)量(liang)W采用方(fang)根(gen)法進(jin)行(xing)歸一化(hua)處理(li)，得到(dao)某(mou)一層(ceng)(ceng)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)對(dui)于上(shang)一層(ceng)(ceng)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)某(mou)相(xiang)關(guan)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)相(xiang)對(dui)重(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)性(xing)權值。2.4對(dui)判(pan)斷(duan)矩(ju)(ju)(ju)(ju)陣(zhen)(zhen)進(jin)行(xing)一致性(xing)檢驗一致性(xing)檢驗的(de)(de)(de)(de)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)為(wei)(wei)(wei)C.I，C.I=λmax-nn-1，n表(biao)示判(pan)斷(duan)矩(ju)(ju)(ju)(ju)陣(zhen)(zhen)的(de)(de)(de)(de)階(jie)數；隨機一致性(xing)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)為(wei)(wei)(wei)R.I，不同(tong)階(jie)數的(de)(de)(de)(de)矩(ju)(ju)(ju)(ju)陣(zhen)(zhen)有(you)不同(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)隨機一致性(xing)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)（如表(biao)3）。當C.R=C.IR.I燮(xie)0時，認為(wei)(wei)(wei)判(pan)斷(duan)矩(ju)(ju)(ju)(ju)陣(zhen)(zhen)的(de)(de)(de)(de)一致性(xing)符(fu)合要(yao)求(qiu)；否(fou)則，表(biao)示檢驗不能通過(guo)(guo)，需(xu)要(yao)對(dui)判(pan)斷(duan)矩(ju)(ju)(ju)(ju)陣(zhen)(zhen)進(jin)行(xing)調整，再按上(shang)述(shu)步驟進(jin)行(xing)計算。

3實證分析

3.1項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)概況某養老(lao)(lao)(lao)住宅(zhai)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)經(jing)歷(li)了八年(nian)的(de)開發打(da)造，其開發團(tuan)隊曾到日本、臺灣(wan)等多個養老(lao)(lao)(lao)經(jing)驗(yan)豐(feng)富(fu)的(de)地區考察，吸收(shou)了各地的(de)經(jing)驗(yan)，是目(mu)前養老(lao)(lao)(lao)住宅(zhai)市(shi)場上比(bi)較高端的(de)產品，主(zhu)要針(zhen)對的(de)是有一定(ding)經(jing)濟能力同(tong)時希望能夠(gou)獲(huo)得較好生活品質的(de)老(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)人。該(gai)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)占地面積63853平米(mi)，食街、玉鳥(niao)流蘇、景觀餐(can)廳、陽光閱覽室、多功能廳、健身(shen)房、棋牌室、咖啡吧、老(lao)(lao)(lao)年(nian)大學、“隨園書院”等。3.2養老(lao)(lao)(lao)住宅(zhai)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)投(tou)資風險(xian)(xian)定(ding)量分析(xi)首先根據表(biao)1建立(li)的(de)養老(lao)(lao)(lao)住宅(zhai)風險(xian)(xian)指(zhi)標(biao)體(ti)系(xi)，，邀請10名(ming)專家對該(gai)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)進行(xing)(xing)打(da)分，按照相關計(ji)算方法與步驟，對相關矩(ju)陣進行(xing)(xing)計(ji)算得出(chu)(chu)相對權重Wi，判斷出(chu)(chu)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)各風險(xian)(xian)因素的(de)綜合重要程度見表(biao)4。從以(yi)(yi)上的(de)指(zhi)標(biao)體(ti)系(xi)的(de)計(ji)算可以(yi)(yi)看(kan)出(chu)(chu)，對萬科良(liang)渚文化村隨園嘉樹項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)投(tou)資風險(xian)(xian)影響最大的(de)是市(shi)場需求度C43、服務經(jing)驗(yan)C52以(yi)(yi)及客群消(xiao)費能力C44。

隨著移(yi)(yi)動支(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)付技術的(de)(de)迅(xun)速(su)發展，移(yi)(yi)動支(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)付已經成(cheng)為人們的(de)(de)生活方式之一，市場(chang)上提供的(de)(de)支(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)付產品(pin)眾(zhong)多，但是用(yong)戶在使用(yong)各(ge)移(yi)(yi)動支(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)付產品(pin)時面臨的(de)(de)風險(xian)如資金、信息泄露(lu)等風險(xian)程度(du)不一。如何評價(jia)移(yi)(yi)動支(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)付產品(pin)風險(xian)，在目前無論監管(guan)還是移(yi)(yi)動公司面前的(de)(de)一道難題(ti)，因此本文(wen)以此為切(qie)入點(dian)，建立BP神經網絡模型，運(yun)用(yong)該模型學習專家評價(jia)，并以此模型來預測移(yi)(yi)動支(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)付風險(xian)。

1移動支付風險識別

移(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)動(dong)(dong)(dong)支(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)分類，根據(ju)移(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)動(dong)(dong)(dong)支(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)分類不(bu)(bu)同(tong)而不(bu)(bu)同(tong)，沒有統(tong)(tong)一的標準。曾(ceng)（2016）認(ren)為(wei)移(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)動(dong)(dong)(dong)支(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)主要(yao)有技術(shu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、信用風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、政策風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、操(cao)(cao)作風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、法律風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、聲譽風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。（曾(ceng)玲玲，孫琳琳，周繼平，基于層次(ci)分析法的我國移(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)動(dong)(dong)(dong)金融風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)價：商業研究，2016(10):44-50）本文結合移(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)動(dong)(dong)(dong)支(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)流程、場景、專家(jia)經驗，總結移(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)動(dong)(dong)(dong)支(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)主要(yao)有5大類，如(ru)下：經濟風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)：移(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)動(dong)(dong)(dong)支(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)資(zi)(zi)金損(sun)失(shi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，移(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)動(dong)(dong)(dong)支(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)不(bu)(bu)合理收(shou)費風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，移(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)動(dong)(dong)(dong)支(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)資(zi)(zi)金被盜風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)時間(jian)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)：學(xue)習移(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)動(dong)(dong)(dong)支(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)時間(jian)過(guo)長風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，使(shi)用移(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)動(dong)(dong)(dong)支(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)時間(jian)過(guo)長風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，移(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)動(dong)(dong)(dong)支(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)問題咨詢(xun)時間(jian)過(guo)長風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)操(cao)(cao)作風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)：移(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)動(dong)(dong)(dong)支(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)設(she)備操(cao)(cao)作風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，移(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)動(dong)(dong)(dong)支(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)應(ying)用下載風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，移(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)動(dong)(dong)(dong)支(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)網絡接入風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)隱私風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)：個人信息泄露(lu)(lu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，資(zi)(zi)產情況泄露(lu)(lu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，交易記(ji)錄泄露(lu)(lu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，瀏覽隱私泄露(lu)(lu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)技術(shu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)：平臺技術(shu)不(bu)(bu)達標，系統(tong)(tong)安全性風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，服務失(shi)誤(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。

2移(yi)動支付風險評價

2.1專(zhuan)(zhuan)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)權(quan)重(zhong)確(que)定。在(zai)(zai)移(yi)動支(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)(fu)(fu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)(yin)(yin)素確(que)定之后(hou)，運用(yong)專(zhuan)(zhuan)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)打分(fen)(fen)法，采用(yong)匿名(ming)方式征詢有關專(zhuan)(zhuan)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)的(de)(de)意見，對(dui)(dui)(dui)專(zhuan)(zhuan)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)意見進(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)統計、處理、分(fen)(fen)析、歸納，客(ke)觀綜合多(duo)數(shu)專(zhuan)(zhuan)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)驗(yan)(yan)與(yu)主觀判斷。（孫乃聰，專(zhuan)(zhuan)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)評(ping)分(fen)(fen)法在(zai)(zai)方案技(ji)術分(fen)(fen)析中(zhong)的(de)(de)應用(yong)：西安文理學院學報(自然(ran)科學版)，2013,16(01):125-128）組織行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)內(nei)10名(ming)移(yi)動支(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)(fu)(fu)領域專(zhuan)(zhuan)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)對(dui)(dui)(dui)市場(chang)上常見的(de)(de)10款移(yi)動支(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)(fu)(fu)產(chan)品(pin)進(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)調研，針對(dui)(dui)(dui)識別的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)(yin)(yin)素進(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)評(ping)分(fen)(fen)。為(wei)(wei)了(le)(le)增(zeng)加打分(fen)(fen)專(zhuan)(zhuan)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)的(de)(de)科學合理性，經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)專(zhuan)(zhuan)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)會議討論得出，根(gen)據(ju)專(zhuan)(zhuan)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)職務、學歷、從(cong)業(ye)(ye)年限(xian)、熟(shu)悉程(cheng)度(du)，運用(yong)層(ceng)次分(fen)(fen)析法得到(dao)(dao)10名(ming)專(zhuan)(zhuan)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)權(quan)重(zhong)。根(gen)據(ju)專(zhuan)(zhuan)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)情況構建(jian)一級指(zhi)標矩陣A專(zhuan)(zhuan)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)一級指(zhi)標和工(gong)作職稱(cheng)、教育(yu)背景、從(cong)業(ye)(ye)年限(xian)、風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)閱歷對(dui)(dui)(dui)應的(de)(de)二級指(zhi)標A工(gong)作職稱(cheng)，A教育(yu)背景，A從(cong)業(ye)(ye)年限(xian)，A風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)閱歷。構建(jian)矩陣如下：在(zai)(zai)確(que)定專(zhuan)(zhuan)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)權(quan)重(zhong)之后(hou)，將移(yi)動支(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)(fu)(fu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)指(zhi)標的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)程(cheng)度(du)分(fen)(fen)為(wei)(wei)五個(ge)等(deng)級：風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)極低(di)、風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)較低(di)、風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)一般、風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)較高(gao)、風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)極高(gao)。這(zhe)五個(ge)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等(deng)級分(fen)(fen)別對(dui)(dui)(dui)應區間數(shu)值(zhi)(zhi)為(wei)(wei)（0，0.2）、（0.2，0.4）、（0.4,0.6），（0.6,0.8），（0.8,1）。風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)指(zhi)標對(dui)(dui)(dui)應的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)程(cheng)度(du)越(yue)低(di)，評(ping)分(fen)(fen)數(shu)值(zhi)(zhi)也越(yue)低(di)。根(gen)據(ju)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)價(jia)(jia)標準(zhun)，收集(ji)專(zhuan)(zhuan)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)對(dui)(dui)(dui)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)指(zhi)標評(ping)分(fen)(fen)數(shu)據(ju)，得到(dao)(dao)0款移(yi)動支(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)(fu)(fu)產(chan)品(pin)的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)(yin)(yin)素評(ping)價(jia)(jia)及(ji)整(zheng)體評(ping)價(jia)(jia)數(shu)據(ju)。2.2模型訓練(lian)(lian)與(yu)驗(yan)(yan)證通過分(fen)(fen)析，確(que)定了(le)(le)16個(ge)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)(yin)(yin)素為(wei)(wei)輸(shu)入層(ceng)神(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)元(yuan)(yuan)，移(yi)動動支(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)(fu)(fu)整(zheng)體風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)價(jia)(jia)程(cheng)度(du)為(wei)(wei)輸(shu)出層(ceng)神(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)元(yuan)(yuan)，通過不(bu)同的(de)(de)隱(yin)含(han)神(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)元(yuan)(yuan)數(shu)進(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)測試(shi)觀察，發現隱(yin)含(han)層(ceng)神(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)元(yuan)(yuan)為(wei)(wei)8的(de)(de)時候誤差(cha)較小。因(yin)(yin)(yin)此(ci)本文隱(yin)含(han)層(ceng)神(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)元(yuan)(yuan)設(she)置(zhi)為(wei)(wei)8個(ge)。因(yin)(yin)(yin)此(ci)移(yi)動支(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)(fu)(fu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)價(jia)(jia)神(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)網絡模型如圖1所(suo)示。根(gen)據(ju)專(zhuan)(zhuan)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)評(ping)分(fen)(fen)數(shu)據(ju)，對(dui)(dui)(dui)該神(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)網絡模型進(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)訓練(lian)(lian)驗(yan)(yan)證，當誤差(cha)低(di)于在(zai)(zai)0.001時，滿(man)足誤差(cha)范圍，結(jie)束訓練(lian)(lian)，并運用(yong)專(zhuan)(zhuan)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)評(ping)分(fen)(fen)數(shu)據(ju)中(zhong)2組產(chan)品(pin)數(shu)據(ju)，對(dui)(dui)(dui)該神(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)網絡模型進(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)驗(yan)(yan)證，達到(dao)(dao)預(yu)期驗(yan)(yan)證結(jie)果，模型驗(yan)(yan)證完成。2.3風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)預(yu)測。目前市場(chang)上新推出了(le)(le)一款移(yi)動支(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)(fu)(fu)產(chan)品(pin)，提供的(de)(de)功能如消費、理財、信貸等(deng)于傳統的(de)(de)市場(chang)支(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)(fu)(fu)產(chan)品(pin)相(xiang)近，使用(yong)的(de)(de)技(ji)術模型與(yu)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)技(ji)術大致相(xiang)同。因(yin)(yin)(yin)此(ci)，決定運用(yong)該神(shen)(shen)(shen)(shen)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)網絡模型對(dui)(dui)(dui)該款產(chan)品(pin)整(zheng)體風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)進(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)預(yu)測。結(jie)合10位行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)專(zhuan)(zhuan)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)對(dui)(dui)(dui)消費者使用(yong)該產(chan)品(pin)進(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)移(yi)動支(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)(fu)(fu)過程(cheng)中(zhong)的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)進(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)評(ping)分(fen)(fen)，然(ran)后(hou)進(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)加權(quan)求和得到(dao)(dao)評(ping)分(fen)(fen)如表(biao)2：

3移動支付(fu)風險對策

第一條(tiao)為(wei)了規范審(shen)計(ji)(ji)人員運(yun)用審(shen)計(ji)(ji)重要性、評估審(shen)計(ji)(ji)風(feng)險的行(xing)為(wei)，保證(zheng)審(shen)計(ji)(ji)工作質量，根據《中華人民(min)共(gong)和國國家審(shen)計(ji)(ji)基本(ben)準則》，制(zhi)定本(ben)準則。

第(di)二(er)條本準則所稱(cheng)審計重要性（以下簡稱(cheng)重要性）是指被(bei)審計單位財政收(shou)支(zhi)、財務收(shou)支(zhi)及(ji)相(xiang)關會計信(xin)息錯弊(bi)的(de)(de)嚴(yan)重程(cheng)度，該錯弊(bi)未被(bei)揭(jie)露足以影響信(xin)息使用者的(de)(de)判斷或決策(ce)以及(ji)審計目(mu)標的(de)(de)實(shi)現。

第三條(tiao)對重(zhong)要性水平的(de)評估是審(shen)計(ji)人(ren)員的(de)一(yi)種專業判斷。審(shen)計(ji)人(ren)員在確定審(shen)計(ji)步驟的(de)性質、時間(jian)和(he)范圍以及評價審(shen)計(ji)結果(guo)時，應當合(he)理運用重(zhong)要性原則。

重要性水平的表(biao)現(xian)形式是(shi)金(jin)額額度(du)。

第四條(tiao)審計(ji)人(ren)員在確定重要(yao)性水(shui)平時，應當從金(jin)額和(he)性質兩(liang)個方面綜合(he)評估(gu)總體及(ji)總體各(ge)組(zu)成部(bu)分錯(cuo)弊的嚴重程度。

相(xiang)同性質的小(xiao)金額(e)錯(cuo)弊的累計(ji)可能會對總(zong)體或總(zong)體有關組成部分的重要(yao)性水平產生影響(xiang)，審計(ji)人(ren)員對此(ci)應當予以關注。

摘要(yao):通過對環(huan)境風險(xian)(xian)評(ping)價的(de)(de)基本概念、內容和方法的(de)(de)介(jie)紹，認(ren)識環(huan)境風險(xian)(xian)評(ping)價和環(huan)境風險(xian)(xian)管理的(de)(de)關(guan)系和應用，了解環(huan)境風險(xian)(xian)評(ping)價和環(huan)境風險(xian)(xian)管理在環(huan)境保護工作中的(de)(de)重要(yao)性，結合(he)現狀對未來的(de)(de)發展趨勢作預測(ce)和建(jian)議。

關鍵詞：環(huan)境風險評價識別

環(huan)境(jing)風險(xian)是指由自(zi)發(fa)的(de)(de)(de)自(zi)然原因和(he)人(ren)類(lei)活動對自(zi)然或社會(hui)(hui))引(yin)起(qi)的(de)(de)(de)，通過環(huan)境(jing)介質傳播(bo)，能對人(ren)類(lei)社會(hui)(hui)及(ji)自(zi)然環(huan)境(jing)產生(sheng)破壞、損害(hai)乃至毀(hui)滅性作用等不良效果(guo)發(fa)生(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)概率及(ji)其后果(guo)。而環(huan)境(jing)風險(xian)評價(jia)和(he)管(guan)(guan)理(li)就是指人(ren)類(lei)的(de)(de)(de)各種開(kai)發(fa)活動或面(mian)臨的(de)(de)(de)危(wei)害(hai)(包(bao)括(kuo)自(zi)然災害(hai)等)對人(ren)體(ti)健康、社會(hui)(hui)經(jing)濟(ji)、生(sheng)態系統(tong)等所引(yin)起(qi)的(de)(de)(de)風險(xian)可能帶來的(de)(de)(de)損失(shi)進(jin)行評估，并由此進(jin)行管(guan)(guan)理(li)和(he)抉策的(de)(de)(de)過程。目前，我國(guo)正處于(yu)環(huan)境(jing)污染事件的(de)(de)(de)高發(fa)期，認識(shi)和(he)重(zhong)視環(huan)境(jing)風險(xian)評價(jia)和(he)環(huan)境(jing)風險(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)對開(kai)展好(hao)現(xian)階段的(de)(de)(de)環(huan)境(jing)保護工作有(you)著重(zhong)要的(de)(de)(de)現(xian)實意義

一、環(huan)境風險評價(jia)。

1.環(huan)境風(feng)險評(ping)價(jia)的基本分類。

按照(zhao)環(huan)(huan)境風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)事件(jian)分(fen)類,可(ke)分(fen)為突(tu)發性(xing)環(huan)(huan)境事故(gu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)評價(jia)(jia)和非突(tu)發性(xing)環(huan)(huan)境風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)評價(jia)(jia)；從其評價(jia)(jia)范圍(wei)而(er)言可(ke)分(fen)成三個(ge)等級,即微(wei)觀(guan)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)評價(jia)(jia)、系統風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)評價(jia)(jia)和全國(或宏觀(guan))風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)評價(jia)(jia)；若按環(huan)(huan)境風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)評價(jia)(jia)的(de)應用領(ling)域(yu),則可(ke)分(fen)為自然災害的(de)危險(xian)(xian)(xian)評價(jia)(jia)、有毒有害化學品(pin)的(de)生態(tai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)評價(jia)(jia)、建設(she)項目的(de)環(huan)(huan)境風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)評價(jia)(jia)。

摘要：企(qi)業(ye)(ye)想要在當前激烈的(de)(de)市場競爭中(zhong)(zhong)占有(you)一席(xi)之地，財務則是企(qi)業(ye)(ye)發展中(zhong)(zhong)不可忽(hu)視的(de)(de)重要因素，其具體的(de)(de)財務狀況與企(qi)業(ye)(ye)未來(lai)(lai)發展密切相(xiang)關。全球(qiu)化風(feng)暴除了(le)為(wei)我(wo)國企(qi)業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)進步引入機(ji)會，也在一定程(cheng)度(du)上(shang)提(ti)升了(le)競爭的(de)(de)白熱(re)化與復雜程(cheng)度(du)。所以，加強(qiang)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)財務風(feng)險體系的(de)(de)改革力度(du)，為(wei)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)財務在未來(lai)(lai)競爭中(zhong)(zhong)具備強(qiang)大(da)的(de)(de)抗(kang)擊風(feng)險的(de)(de)實力，是現今企(qi)業(ye)(ye)必須抓緊落實的(de)(de)工作。

關鍵詞：企業(ye)財(cai)務風(feng)險；評價(jia)體系；問(wen)題；對策

通(tong)過對當(dang)前我國(guo)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)財(cai)務(wu)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評價體(ti)系(xi)與國(guo)際(ji)(ji)先進(jin)體(ti)系(xi)的(de)(de)(de)比較，可以發(fa)現，無論從(cong)體(ti)系(xi)的(de)(de)(de)建立還是(shi)具體(ti)的(de)(de)(de)運作上，我國(guo)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)財(cai)務(wu)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評價體(ti)系(xi)與國(guo)際(ji)(ji)水平相差(cha)很遠，尤(you)其是(shi)在財(cai)務(wu)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評價系(xi)統的(de)(de)(de)完(wan)善性上差(cha)距很大(da)。而(er)且，大(da)部分企(qi)(qi)業(ye)沒(mei)有(you)從(cong)靈(ling)魂深處對財(cai)務(wu)管理的(de)(de)(de)關鍵作用有(you)透徹的(de)(de)(de)認(ren)識，在財(cai)務(wu)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)控(kong)制上也就(jiu)無法發(fa)揮(hui)應有(you)的(de)(de)(de)功(gong)能，同(tong)時(shi)由(you)于(yu)沒(mei)有(you)給(gei)予足(zu)夠的(de)(de)(de)理論支撐，實際(ji)(ji)經驗也相當(dang)不足(zu)，導(dao)致了(le)多(duo)數企(qi)(qi)業(ye)在財(cai)務(wu)管理上積累(lei)了(le)大(da)量(liang)弊端(duan)，極易發(fa)生財(cai)務(wu)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)。

一、當前(qian)企業內部財務風險體(ti)系的(de)弊端

(一)不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)深刻理(li)(li)(li)解財(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)(xi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)內涵。從(cong)現(xian)狀(zhuang)來(lai)(lai)看(kan)，我(wo)國(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)財(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)(xi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)建立，無(wu)論(lun)(lun)從(cong)理(li)(li)(li)論(lun)(lun)基(ji)礎(chu)還是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)內涵、以及具(ju)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)應(ying)用(yong)，在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)世界范圍上(shang)(shang)都(dou)處(chu)于(yu)(yu)(yu)落(luo)后狀(zhuang)態(tai)，企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)階層中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)廣泛存在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)著輕視財(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)管(guan)(guan)控(kong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)問題，只(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)注重(zhong)當下(xia)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)獲利水平(ping)(ping)，沒(mei)(mei)(mei)有(you)從(cong)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)長(chang)遠利益著眼進(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)考慮。企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)舉債(zhai)進(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)投資時(shi)(shi)，由于(yu)(yu)(yu)領導(dao)層僅(jin)(jin)將(jiang)眼光停留在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)其收益與(yu)成本的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)降低，不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)重(zhong)視負債(zhai)率指標(biao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)指導(dao)意義，從(cong)而(er)(er)(er)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)未(wei)(wei)來(lai)(lai)運(yun)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)上(shang)(shang)出(chu)現(xian)了相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)當多的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)危機(ji)。并且，因(yin)為對(dui)(dui)(dui)財(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)價(jia)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)(xi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)重(zhong)視，造成了領導(dao)層對(dui)(dui)(dui)外部(bu)(bu)環(huan)境與(yu)內部(bu)(bu)環(huan)境的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)認(ren)識與(yu)分(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)上(shang)(shang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)缺(que)失(shi)(shi)，內部(bu)(bu)環(huan)境方(fang)面，由于(yu)(yu)(yu)沒(mei)(mei)(mei)有(you)能(neng)(neng)(neng)夠將(jiang)財(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)具(ju)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)情形實(shi)施有(you)效(xiao)調研(yan)，缺(que)乏(fa)(fa)專(zhuan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)性(xing)人(ren)員(yuan)(yuan)，在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)制(zhi)約的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)機(ji)制(zhi)上(shang)(shang)也(ye)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)對(dui)(dui)(dui)缺(que)乏(fa)(fa)，在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)發(fa)展(zhan)水平(ping)(ping)上(shang)(shang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)錯誤判(pan)(pan)斷等會(hui)令其在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)預判(pan)(pan)上(shang)(shang)失(shi)(shi)去相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)應(ying)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力。企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)外部(bu)(bu)存在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)由于(yu)(yu)(yu)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)對(dui)(dui)(dui)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)范圍以外的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)環(huan)境缺(que)乏(fa)(fa)科學理(li)(li)(li)性(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)分(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)，以一成不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)變(bian)(bian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)觀念看(kan)待市(shi)場(chang)變(bian)(bian)化(hua)，在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)市(shi)場(chang)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)研(yan)究不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)力，在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)對(dui)(dui)(dui)手分(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)上(shang)(shang)不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)全(quan)(quan)面，造成企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)(xi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)建設(she)(she)落(luo)后，為企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)展(zhan)帶來(lai)(lai)危機(ji)。(二)未(wei)(wei)從(cong)實(shi)際出(chu)發(fa)組建符合實(shi)際的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)財(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)價(jia)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)(xi)。企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)之間由于(yu)(yu)(yu)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)區別，其各自的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)展(zhan)方(fang)向(xiang)也(ye)不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)同，所以在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)同類(lei)型企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)推(tui)廣財(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)價(jia)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)(xi)，也(ye)應(ying)有(you)所區分(fen)。大部(bu)(bu)分(fen)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)當中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，財(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)(xi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)運(yun)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)都(dou)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)得已而(er)(er)(er)為之，缺(que)乏(fa)(fa)主(zhu)動(dong)(dong)(dong)性(xing)，更(geng)缺(que)乏(fa)(fa)理(li)(li)(li)性(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)選(xuan)擇過(guo)程(cheng)。當前(qian)國(guo)內財(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)價(jia)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)(xi)無(wu)鮮(xian)明的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)特(te)征(zheng)而(er)(er)(er)言，沒(mei)(mei)(mei)有(you)聯(lian)系(xi)(xi)(xi)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)所歸屬的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)狀(zhuang)態(tai)落(luo)實(shi)運(yun)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)，不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)同行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)評(ping)價(jia)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)(xi)上(shang)(shang)只(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)有(you)一套(tao)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統。無(wu)論(lun)(lun)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)從(cong)事(shi)哪(na)一方(fang)面的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)，由于(yu)(yu)(yu)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)專(zhuan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)之間的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)差異，不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)同行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)實(shi)施財(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)過(guo)程(cheng)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)應(ying)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)價(jia)方(fang)法(fa)與(yu)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)(xi)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)可(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)同的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)，在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)具(ju)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)操(cao)作(zuo)(zuo)過(guo)程(cheng)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)更(geng)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)千(qian)差萬別。同時(shi)(shi)，當前(qian)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)價(jia)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)(xi)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)財(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)方(fang)面的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)建設(she)(she)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)缺(que)少(shao)科學論(lun)(lun)證(zheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)，在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)實(shi)施分(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)過(guo)程(cheng)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)只(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)重(zhong)視定(ding)(ding)量(liang)工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)，對(dui)(dui)(dui)于(yu)(yu)(yu)其性(xing)質的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)認(ren)定(ding)(ding)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)足的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)，僅(jin)(jin)依靠固定(ding)(ding)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)數據(ju)、報表(biao)來(lai)(lai)分(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)財(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)程(cheng)度(du)，未(wei)(wei)考慮市(shi)場(chang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)動(dong)(dong)(dong)態(tai)變(bian)(bian)化(hua)，在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)此背(bei)景下(xia)，采(cai)用(yong)以往的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)公式(shi)(shi)與(yu)算(suan)法(fa)，不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)以動(dong)(dong)(dong)態(tai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)理(li)(li)(li)念實(shi)施評(ping)價(jia)，而(er)(er)(er)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)實(shi)施封閉、固化(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)研(yan)究，是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)無(wu)實(shi)用(yong)性(xing)可(ke)言的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)。(三)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)關專(zhuan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)人(ren)員(yuan)(yuan)與(yu)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)團(tuan)(tuan)(tuan)隊嚴(yan)重(zhong)不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)足。企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)正(zheng)常運(yun)作(zuo)(zuo)與(yu)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)關專(zhuan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)人(ren)員(yuan)(yuan)與(yu)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)團(tuan)(tuan)(tuan)隊的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)選(xuan)擇是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)息(xi)息(xi)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)關的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)，管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)團(tuan)(tuan)(tuan)隊與(yu)人(ren)員(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)專(zhuan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)性(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)強弱，決定(ding)(ding)著財(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)價(jia)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)(xi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)運(yun)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)效(xiao)果(guo)。當前(qian)大部(bu)(bu)分(fen)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)并沒(mei)(mei)(mei)有(you)專(zhuan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)理(li)(li)(li)論(lun)(lun)研(yan)究團(tuan)(tuan)(tuan)隊對(dui)(dui)(dui)其運(yun)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)過(guo)程(cheng)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)財(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)價(jia)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)(xi)進(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)調研(yan)，在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)財(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)上(shang)(shang)沒(mei)(mei)(mei)有(you)足夠的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)認(ren)識。未(wei)(wei)給予外部(bu)(bu)環(huan)境足夠的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)視，同時(shi)(shi)缺(que)乏(fa)(fa)財(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)內部(bu)(bu)控(kong)制(zhi)，如(ru)果(guo)再加上(shang)(shang)對(dui)(dui)(dui)財(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)成員(yuan)(yuan)素質的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)低下(xia)，就算(suan)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)思想(xiang)(xiang)上(shang)(shang)有(you)了一些轉變(bian)(bian)，且在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)關部(bu)(bu)門(men)引(yin)進(jin)(jin)(jin)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)控(kong)制(zhi)人(ren)員(yuan)(yuan)，然而(er)(er)(er)由于(yu)(yu)(yu)人(ren)員(yuan)(yuan)不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)具(ju)備專(zhuan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)培訓的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)背(bei)景，未(wei)(wei)接受過(guo)完(wan)(wan)整系(xi)(xi)(xi)統地風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)價(jia)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)(xi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)學習，最(zui)多只(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)與(yu)財(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)關的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)專(zhuan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)，在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)其風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)上(shang)(shang)只(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)有(you)基(ji)本了解，只(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)會(hui)計中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)已經(jing)顯現(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)實(shi)施控(kong)制(zhi)，而(er)(er)(er)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)財(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)上(shang)(shang)可(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)出(chu)現(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)從(cong)專(zhuan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)角(jiao)度(du)進(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)完(wan)(wan)整評(ping)估，對(dui)(dui)(dui)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)財(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)實(shi)施有(you)效(xiao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)管(guan)(guan)控(kong)。(四)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)關體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)(xi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)設(she)(she)計中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)非(fei)(fei)財(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)指標(biao)。設(she)(she)計不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)謹慎企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)財(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統如(ru)果(guo)想(xiang)(xiang)正(zheng)常運(yun)轉，其財(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)價(jia)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)(xi)對(dui)(dui)(dui)于(yu)(yu)(yu)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)財(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)貢獻極(ji)大，符合企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)實(shi)現(xian)全(quan)(quan)面發(fa)展(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)目(mu)標(biao)，然而(er)(er)(er)當前(qian)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)財(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)價(jia)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)(xi)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)設(she)(she)計過(guo)程(cheng)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)仍(reng)有(you)不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)足，許多時(shi)(shi)候未(wei)(wei)將(jiang)非(fei)(fei)財(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)指標(biao)做嚴(yan)格分(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)。以企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)為對(dui)(dui)(dui)象的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)財(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)分(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)，采(cai)取的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)分(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)方(fang)式(shi)(shi)為定(ding)(ding)性(xing)與(yu)定(ding)(ding)量(liang)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)整合的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)方(fang)式(shi)(shi)進(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)，然而(er)(er)(er)數據(ju)只(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)反映某一時(shi)(shi)刻的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)固定(ding)(ding)值，并不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)代表(biao)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)全(quan)(quan)部(bu)(bu)，如(ru)果(guo)僅(jin)(jin)僅(jin)(jin)對(dui)(dui)(dui)某一數據(ju)進(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)研(yan)究，則這種分(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)方(fang)法(fa)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)片面的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)。必(bi)須以非(fei)(fei)財(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)指標(biao)進(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)輔助管(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)，方(fang)可(ke)將(jiang)財(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)指標(biao)未(wei)(wei)涉及的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)部(bu)(bu)分(fen)進(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)完(wan)(wan)整化(hua)處(chu)理(li)(li)(li)，在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)當前(qian)嚴(yan)酷的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)市(shi)場(chang)競(jing)爭(zheng)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)應(ying)以市(shi)場(chang)定(ding)(ding)位與(yu)服務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)質量(liang)為工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)目(mu)標(biao)，時(shi)(shi)刻重(zhong)視企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)本身的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)創(chuang)新水平(ping)(ping)，與(yu)各方(fang)特(te)別是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)金融部(bu)(bu)門(men)進(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)持續的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)聯(lian)絡，通過(guo)以上(shang)(shang)措施方(fang)可(ke)將(jiang)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)價(jia)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)(xi)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)財(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)建設(she)(she)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)作(zuo)(zuo)用(yong)全(quan)(quan)面發(fa)揮(hui)出(chu)來(lai)(lai)。以上(shang)(shang)非(fei)(fei)財(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)指標(biao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)要性(xing)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)財(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)(xi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)實(shi)際作(zuo)(zuo)用(yong)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)愈(yu)發(fa)明顯的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)。

二、改進當前(qian)企(qi)業(ye)財務(wu)風險評(ping)價體系(xi)的(de)相關措施

摘要在對對外資(zi)(zi)(zi)源型(xing)投資(zi)(zi)(zi)項(xiang)目風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理內(nei)涵界定及其(qi)風(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理基(ji)本程序的(de)介紹基(ji)礎上(shang)，分析了對外資(zi)(zi)(zi)源型(xing)投資(zi)(zi)(zi)項(xiang)目不同階段所(suo)面(mian)臨的(de)主要風(feng)險(xian)因素，運用模糊綜合評(ping)價(jia)方法建立了對外資(zi)(zi)(zi)源型(xing)投資(zi)(zi)(zi)項(xiang)目的(de)風(feng)險(xian)評(ping)價(jia)模型(xing)框(kuang)架(jia)，并給出了評(ping)判測度依據，從而(er)為對外投資(zi)(zi)(zi)決(jue)策提供定量的(de)科(ke)學依據。

關鍵詞對外投資(zi)項目資(zi)源(yuan)型項目投資(zi)風險模糊綜合評(ping)價(jia)

1風(feng)險管理及(ji)對外資源型投資項目(mu)風(feng)險管理

所謂項目(mu)(mu)風險管理(li)是(shi)指人們的(de)(de)主觀行(xing)為，使各(ge)行(xing)為主體通過對某一項目(mu)(mu)實(shi)(shi)施(shi)過程中將要遇到的(de)(de)風險事件進行(xing)識別、衡量、分析，在此基礎上(shang)制訂出適宜(yi)的(de)(de)防范控制措施(shi)，用合理(li)的(de)(de)手段綜(zong)合處(chu)理(li)風險，以最(zui)大限度地(di)實(shi)(shi)現項目(mu)(mu)實(shi)(shi)施(shi)的(de)(de)既定(ding)目(mu)(mu)標的(de)(de)科學管理(li)過程。

投資項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)風(feng)險(xian)指的是項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)投資建(jian)設運營過程中項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)可能(neng)給項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)投資者(zhe)、項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)債(zhai)權(quan)人等相關利益群體所造(zao)成(cheng)的經濟(ji)損失(shi)及對(dui)國民經濟(ji)和社(she)會(hui)經濟(ji)環(huan)境(jing)、自(zi)(zi)然環(huan)境(jing)等所造(zao)成(cheng)的破壞程度。投資項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)面臨著大(da)量的不(bu)確定(ding)性風(feng)險(xian)因(yin)素，對(dui)這(zhe)方(fang)面的研究也頗多，一般來說(shuo)主要分(fen)為市場風(feng)險(xian)、管理風(feng)險(xian)、技術(shu)風(feng)險(xian)、自(zi)(zi)然環(huan)境(jing)風(feng)險(xian)、經濟(ji)風(feng)險(xian)、社(she)會(hui)政治文化風(feng)險(xian)等。每一大(da)類風(feng)險(xian)因(yin)素又可劃(hua)分(fen)為若干小類，這(zhe)些風(feng)險(xian)因(yin)素對(dui)不(bu)同(tong)的項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)，甚至是同(tong)一項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)不(bu)同(tong)階段的影響(xiang)程度也都是不(bu)同(tong)的，但任(ren)何一種(zhong)風(feng)險(xian)都有可能(neng)造(zao)成(cheng)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)建(jian)設的失(shi)敗。

對(dui)(dui)外資(zi)源(yuan)型投(tou)(tou)資(zi)項目風險管理是指(zhi)對(dui)(dui)外資(zi)源(yuan)型投(tou)(tou)資(zi)企(qi)(qi)業對(dui)(dui)勘探、開發(fa)、投(tou)(tou)資(zi)項目實(shi)施過程(cheng)中存(cun)在的各(ge)(ge)種(zhong)各(ge)(ge)樣的風險事件(jian)進(jin)行(xing)識別、衡量、分(fen)析評價(jia)，并適時采取各(ge)(ge)種(zhong)有效的方法進(jin)行(xing)處理，以保(bao)障該項目安全正常(chang)實(shi)施，達(da)到預期(qi)收益，并保(bao)證本企(qi)(qi)業及國(guo)家的經濟利益免受損失的科(ke)學管理過程(cheng)。

摘要：任(ren)何利用機械進行的生(sheng)產或(huo)服務活動都伴隨著(zhu)危險(xian)(xian)，都存在著(zhu)可(ke)能(neng)釀成的事故(gu)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)。進行風(feng)險(xian)(xian)評價的目(mu)的是為(wei)了(le)根據現實的各(ge)種約束，提出(chu)合(he)理可(ke)行的消除危險(xian)(xian)或(huo)減小風(feng)險(xian)(xian)的安全(quan)措施(shi)。風(feng)險(xian)(xian)評價對減少事故(gu)的發(fa)生(sheng)，特別是防(fang)止重大(da)惡性事故(gu)的發(fa)生(sheng)，有(you)著(zhu)非(fei)常(chang)重要的意(yi)義。為(wei)此本論(lun)文(wen)對現有(you)的幾種機械安全(quan)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)評價方法進行了(le)較細致的研究。

關鍵詞：機(ji)械安全(quan)風險評價(jia)方法(fa)

進行風(feng)(feng)險(xian)評(ping)(ping)定，需要選擇所使用(yong)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)評(ping)(ping)定的(de)(de)(de)工(gong)具或評(ping)(ping)定方(fang)法。評(ping)(ping)定方(fang)法的(de)(de)(de)選擇和確(que)定是核心問(wen)題(ti)。目前常用(yong)的(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)方(fang)法有十多種，ISO/TR14121-2中列舉了(le)4種。了(le)解這(zhe)些(xie)方(fang)法的(de)(de)(de)特點和適用(yong)范圍，才能正確(que)地使用(yong)這(zhe)些(xie)方(fang)法，達到事半功(gong)倍(bei)的(de)(de)(de)效(xiao)果。否則，盡管與評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)的(de)(de)(de)過(guo)程相比，方(fang)法選擇的(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)要性并非在其之上，但是隨意(yi)選用(yong)方(fang)法可(ke)能會造成人力、物(wu)力的(de)(de)(de)大量浪費(fei)，收效(xiao)甚微(wei)。

首先這(zhe)(zhe)些方(fang)法(fa)(fa)必須具備科學性(xing)(xing)。其(qi)次這(zhe)(zhe)些方(fang)法(fa)(fa)必須具備針對性(xing)(xing)。需要(yao)風險(xian)評價的(de)(de)(de)機(ji)械的(de)(de)(de)限(xian)制(zhi)千差萬(wan)別，涉及到預期使用、誤用、使用者、空間、時間等(deng)各個方(fang)面，不(bu)可能有一種方(fang)法(fa)(fa)能適合所有的(de)(de)(de)機(ji)械。例如不(bu)同類型的(de)(de)(de)機(ji)械，產生的(de)(de)(de)危險(xian)有的(de)(de)(de)大不(bu)相同，就(jiu)需要(yao)不(bu)同的(de)(de)(de)方(fang)法(fa)(fa)進(jin)行(xing)評價。所以采用的(de)(de)(de)評價方(fang)法(fa)(fa)應該是(shi)專(zhuan)門針對這(zhe)(zhe)一方(fang)面的(de)(de)(de)，才能取得預期的(de)(de)(de)效果(guo)。

這(zhe)些方法(fa)(fa)還必(bi)須具(ju)備適用(yong)性。一切方法(fa)(fa)都(dou)要適用(yong)于應(ying)用(yong)、便于應(ying)用(yong)，方法(fa)(fa)要簡單(dan)、結論要明確(que)、效果要顯著，這(zhe)樣人們(men)才能(neng)樂(le)于接受。一些設(she)定(ding)的(de)參數(shu)值(zhi)過多(duo)，計算復雜，貌似艱(jian)深而難于理解應(ying)用(yong)的(de)方法(fa)(fa)是(shi)不可取的(de)。目前應(ying)用(yong)于機械設(she)計風險(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)價方法(fa)(fa)主要有風險(xian)(xian)矩陣法(fa)(fa)、風險(xian)(xian)圖(tu)法(fa)(fa)、評(ping)(ping)(ping)分法(fa)(fa)、定(ding)量風險(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)價等。這(zhe)些方法(fa)(fa)既(ji)可以對危險(xian)(xian)的(de)風險(xian)(xian)水平進行排序(xu)，確(que)定(ding)最(zui)嚴重的(de)危險(xian)(xian)，也可以通過減(jian)少風險(xian)(xian)的(de)多(duo)少去評(ping)(ping)(ping)估采(cai)取的(de)措施，從中選擇出最(zui)有效的(de)解決措施。

一、風險矩陣法

一、營運資金管(guan)理評價及風險預(yu)警(jing)研究的意義

國(guo)(guo)(guo)外關(guan)于(yu)營(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)始于(yu)20世(shi)紀30年(nian)代，我國(guo)(guo)(guo)于(yu)1993年(nian)引(yin)入營(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)這(zhe)一(yi)概念后(hou)，對(dui)營(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)才逐(zhu)漸展開。營(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)是公司財務(wu)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)重要(yao)組(zu)成(cheng)(cheng)部分，與公司價(jia)值(zhi)創造(zao)和(he)財務(wu)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)目(mu)標緊(jin)密(mi)相關(guan)。因(yin)營(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)不善而(er)導(dao)致(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)破產(chan)倒閉案例已屢見不鮮，2003年(nian)美國(guo)(guo)(guo)有著100多(duo)年(nian)歷史(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)Kmart申請了(le)破產(chan)保護(hu)，2004年(nian)在我國(guo)(guo)(guo)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)營(ying)(ying)8年(nian)之(zhi)久的(de)(de)(de)(de)普爾斯(si)馬特轟(hong)然倒下。近(jin)年(nian)來(lai)(lai)(lai)，提(ti)高(gao)營(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)水平正逐(zhu)步(bu)成(cheng)(cheng)為(wei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)內外企(qi)業(ye)關(guan)注的(de)(de)(de)(de)重心之(zhi)一(yi)。通過(guo)對(dui)營(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)和(he)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)預(yu)(yu)警(jing)研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)，企(qi)業(ye)可以找出影響(xiang)企(qi)業(ye)營(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)績效(xiao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)關(guan)鍵因(yin)素(su)，然后(hou)采取相應的(de)(de)(de)(de)措施(shi)來(lai)(lai)(lai)提(ti)高(gao)營(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)水平；同時(shi)，可以判(pan)別企(qi)業(ye)營(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)狀況，進(jin)而(er)對(dui)企(qi)業(ye)各環(huan)節發生和(he)可能(neng)發生的(de)(de)(de)(de)營(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)發出預(yu)(yu)警(jing)信號(hao)。然而(er)，對(dui)目(mu)前關(guan)于(yu)營(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)和(he)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)預(yu)(yu)警(jing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)成(cheng)(cheng)果進(jin)行(xing)歸(gui)納(na)總結，分析發現(xian)營(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)體系(xi)有涉(she)及營(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)安全性的(de)(de)(de)(de)指標，但(dan)是較少的(de)(de)(de)(de)研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)能(neng)夠把(ba)營(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)與風(feng)(feng)險(xian)預(yu)(yu)警(jing)結合起來(lai)(lai)(lai)。顯然，這(zhe)不利于(yu)對(dui)營(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)的(de)(de)(de)(de)深(shen)入研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)，也不利于(yu)企(qi)業(ye)營(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)規避(bi)。科學(xue)的(de)(de)(de)(de)營(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)應當能(neng)夠在降低資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)同時(shi)增加企(qi)業(ye)收益，最終使企(qi)業(ye)價(jia)值(zhi)得(de)到提(ti)升。因(yin)此，本文擬從(cong)營(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)和(he)營(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)預(yu)(yu)警(jing)兩個方面進(jin)行(xing)分析評(ping)(ping)價(jia)，以期在梳理(li)(li)(li)(li)和(he)把(ba)握營(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)及風(feng)(feng)險(xian)預(yu)(yu)警(jing)研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)現(xian)狀的(de)(de)(de)(de)基礎上，對(dui)未來(lai)(lai)(lai)我國(guo)(guo)(guo)營(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)及風(feng)(feng)險(xian)預(yu)(yu)警(jing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)方向進(jin)行(xing)探(tan)討。

二、關于營運(yun)資金管理(li)評價(jia)的主要研(yan)究成果

對營運資(zi)金管理的(de)評(ping)價基本(ben)上都是基于營運資(zi)金管理績效評(ping)價展(zhan)開(kai)。關于營運資(zi)金管理績效評(ping)價的(de)研究也由傳統的(de)單一財務指標(biao)逐步發(fa)展(zhan)為較完整的(de)綜合(he)性評(ping)價體系，經歷了一個逐步發(fa)展(zhan)和演(yan)變的(de)過程。

（一(yi)）國外相關研究文獻(xian)

20世(shi)紀70年代(dai)以(yi)前對(dui)營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)管理(li)(li)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)研究主要集(ji)中在(zai)各(ge)單個(ge)組成項目上(shang)，并(bing)且側重于(yu)(yu)流(liu)(liu)動資(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)項目的(de)(de)(de)研究，相應的(de)(de)(de)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)通常采用(yong)(yong)應收(shou)、應付賬款(kuan)、存貨周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)轉(zhuan)率(lv)(lv)等單項指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)進行評(ping)(ping)價(jia)，然(ran)而這類(lei)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)都存在(zai)一定程度(du)的(de)(de)(de)局限性。首先，這類(lei)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)忽(hu)略了流(liu)(liu)動資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)之間的(de)(de)(de)內在(zai)聯系(xi)；其次，利用(yong)(yong)這類(lei)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)很難發現(xian)(xian)(xian)各(ge)流(liu)(liu)動資(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)項目的(de)(de)(de)相互(hu)變動對(dui)營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)本的(de)(de)(de)影響程度(du)，繼(ji)而無(wu)法(fa)對(dui)營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)進行綜合(he)的(de)(de)(de)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)。鑒于(yu)(yu)實踐中出(chu)現(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)這類(lei)問題,有(you)學者提(ti)出(chu)了采用(yong)(yong)現(xian)(xian)(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)期(qi)(qi)(qi)（CashConversionCycle）指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao),用(yong)(yong)以(yi)反映企(qi)(qi)業(ye)營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)狀況(kuang)(kuang)的(de)(de)(de)全(quan)貌。RichardV.D.等（1980）提(ti)出(chu)了反映營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)管理(li)(li)狀況(kuang)(kuang)全(quan)貌的(de)(de)(de)現(xian)(xian)(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)轉(zhuan)期(qi)(qi)(qi)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)，指(zhi)(zhi)出(chu)：現(xian)(xian)(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)轉(zhuan)期(qi)(qi)(qi)=應收(shou)賬款(kuan)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)轉(zhuan)期(qi)(qi)(qi)+存貨周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)轉(zhuan)期(qi)(qi)(qi)-應付賬款(kuan)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)轉(zhuan)期(qi)(qi)(qi)。這個(ge)公式后來被(bei)廣泛運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)用(yong)(yong)到(dao)對(dui)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)管理(li)(li)績效(xiao)(xiao)的(de)(de)(de)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)之中。但(dan)該(gai)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)忽(hu)視了處于(yu)(yu)不(bu)同時間點、不(bu)同生產(chan)(chan)階段的(de)(de)(de)流(liu)(liu)動資(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)項目所占用(yong)(yong)營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)在(zai)數量上(shang)的(de)(de)(de)差異，沒有(you)考慮企(qi)(qi)業(ye)不(bu)同形(xing)態營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)的(de)(de)(de)占用(yong)(yong)情(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)，因而不(bu)利于(yu)(yu)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)全(quan)面、正確(que)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)管理(li)(li)績效(xiao)(xiao)。由此，JamesA.Gentry等（1990）在(zai)現(xian)(xian)(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)轉(zhuan)期(qi)(qi)(qi)的(de)(de)(de)基礎上(shang)，引(yin)入了權(quan)(quan)(quan)重思想，通過(guo)對(dui)各(ge)階段現(xian)(xian)(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)流(liu)(liu)量時間和(he)(he)數量進行綜合(he)分析，提(ti)出(chu)加(jia)權(quan)(quan)(quan)現(xian)(xian)(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)期(qi)(qi)(qi)的(de)(de)(de)概念。加(jia)權(quan)(quan)(quan)現(xian)(xian)(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)期(qi)(qi)(qi)與(yu)現(xian)(xian)(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)期(qi)(qi)(qi)相比，考慮了不(bu)同形(xing)態營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)占用(yong)(yong)情(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)，加(jia)權(quan)(quan)(quan)現(xian)(xian)(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)期(qi)(qi)(qi)融合(he)了整個(ge)循環使(shi)用(yong)(yong)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)的(de)(de)(de)時間和(he)(he)數量值，從而能(neng)夠更好地反映營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)績效(xiao)(xiao)。但(dan)是上(shang)述營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)績效(xiao)(xiao)的(de)(de)(de)研究都不(bu)是針對(dui)某個(ge)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)、某個(ge)行業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)具(ju)體研究。JosephCavinato（1990）則以(yi)制(zhi)造業(ye)為例，細(xi)化了產(chan)(chan)品(pin)-現(xian)(xian)(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)轉(zhuan)期(qi)(qi)(qi)，并(bing)在(zai)此基礎上(shang)提(ti)出(chu)了縮短產(chan)(chan)品(pin)-現(xian)(xian)(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)轉(zhuan)期(qi)(qi)(qi)的(de)(de)(de)方法(fa)。他提(ti)出(chu)了產(chan)(chan)品(pin)-現(xian)(xian)(xian)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)期(qi)(qi)(qi)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)來衡(heng)量營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)本管理(li)(li)效(xiao)(xiao)率(lv)(lv)。同時，MartinGasmen等（2003）提(ti)出(chu)了衡(heng)量零售企(qi)(qi)業(ye)營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)管理(li)(li)效(xiao)(xiao)率(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)(de)“剩余日(ri)（Ex-cessdays）”指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)。該(gai)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)可有(you)效(xiao)(xiao)衡(heng)量零售企(qi)(qi)業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)管理(li)(li)效(xiao)(xiao)率(lv)(lv)，通過(guo)與(yu)具(ju)體行業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)結合(he)，使(shi)研究結論更具(ju)有(you)說服力。綜上(shang)，上(shang)述評(ping)(ping)價(jia)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)的(de)(de)(de)主要目的(de)(de)(de)在(zai)于(yu)(yu)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)管理(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)效(xiao)(xiao)率(lv)(lv)，雖然(ran)對(dui)營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)風險的(de)(de)(de)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)有(you)所涉及(ji)，但(dan)是沒有(you)系(xi)統(tong)的(de)(de)(de)展(zhan)開研究，也就不(bu)能(neng)實現(xian)(xian)(xian)營(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)運(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)(yun)資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)管理(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)最(zui)終目的(de)(de)(de)。

一、引言

在(zai)新(xin)形(xing)勢下(xia)，市場競(jing)爭越來越激烈，企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)經(jing)營(ying)(ying)(ying)面(mian)臨的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)破產風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)越來越大，很多(duo)企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)由于(yu)(yu)營(ying)(ying)(ying)運資金不(bu)足導致經(jing)營(ying)(ying)(ying)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)，進而演化為破產風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)。造(zao)成企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)經(jing)營(ying)(ying)(ying)失敗的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)原因有很多(duo)，其中(zhong)重要(yao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)原因是企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)抵抗財(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)能力(li)不(bu)足。企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)財(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)主要(yao)是指當(dang)(dang)經(jing)營(ying)(ying)(ying)活動(dong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)不(bu)確定性造(zao)成企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)無法實現(xian)財(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)目(mu)標，以至于(yu)(yu)引發(fa)企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)經(jing)濟利益損(sun)失的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)可能性。在(zai)企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)經(jing)營(ying)(ying)(ying)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)過程中(zhong)，財(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)伴隨于(yu)(yu)企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)生產經(jing)營(ying)(ying)(ying)和(he)公司治理的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)每(mei)一(yi)個環節，財(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)防(fang)控(kong)對(dui)于(yu)(yu)企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)展具有非常重要(yao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)作用。防(fang)范企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)財(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)需要(yao)得(de)到(dao)企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)管理人員(yuan)或者(zhe)財(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)人員(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)認同和(he)實施(shi)。目(mu)前，企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)財(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)還沒有得(de)到(dao)有效的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)管控(kong)，企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)財(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)控(kong)制工作中(zhong)還存在(zai)很多(duo)問(wen)題需要(yao)解決，比如財(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評價體系(xi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)構(gou)(gou)建。因此(ci)，綜上所述(shu)，企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)應當(dang)(dang)逐漸完(wan)善(shan)相關財(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)指標，構(gou)(gou)建科學的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)財(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評價體系(xi)，從而增(zeng)強控(kong)制企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)財(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)水平，強化企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)財(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)防(fang)范意識，從而有利于(yu)(yu)管理者(zhe)做(zuo)出正(zheng)確的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)戰略決策。

二(er)、企業財務風險評價體系構建中出現的問題

（一(yi)）缺乏對現金流量的重視

企(qi)(qi)業(ye)財(cai)(cai)務(wu)風(feng)險評(ping)價指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)中主(zhu)要包括盈利(li)能力(li)(li)、償債(zhai)能力(li)(li)、營(ying)(ying)運能力(li)(li)等(deng)(deng)方面的(de)(de)(de)(de)財(cai)(cai)務(wu)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)，而(er)(er)這些(xie)財(cai)(cai)務(wu)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)主(zhu)要來自于(yu)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)資產(chan)負債(zhai)表和利(li)潤表等(deng)(deng)財(cai)(cai)務(wu)報(bao)表。代表企(qi)(qi)業(ye)財(cai)(cai)務(wu)狀況(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)和經(jing)(jing)營(ying)(ying)成果的(de)(de)(de)(de)財(cai)(cai)務(wu)報(bao)表由于(yu)權責(ze)發生制以及(ji)會(hui)計政策選(xuan)擇(ze)的(de)(de)(de)(de)原(yuan)因(yin)，其相關的(de)(de)(de)(de)財(cai)(cai)務(wu)數(shu)據存(cun)在(zai)被粉飾或(huo)修(xiu)改(gai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)險，以至于(yu)相對應(ying)的(de)(de)(de)(de)財(cai)(cai)務(wu)風(feng)險評(ping)價指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)可靠(kao)(kao)性值得懷疑。財(cai)(cai)務(wu)報(bao)告中關于(yu)現(xian)(xian)金(jin)流量(liang)(liang)(liang)表的(de)(de)(de)(de)內容則(ze)由于(yu)收付(fu)實(shi)現(xian)(xian)制的(de)(de)(de)(de)原(yuan)因(yin)具有更高的(de)(de)(de)(de)可靠(kao)(kao)性，不(bu)易遭受修(xiu)改(gai)或(huo)調整。現(xian)(xian)金(jin)流量(liang)(liang)(liang)反(fan)(fan)映了(le)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)現(xian)(xian)金(jin)流量(liang)(liang)(liang)變化(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)狀況(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)，企(qi)(qi)業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)盈利(li)能力(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)水平最終也要反(fan)(fan)映在(zai)現(xian)(xian)金(jin)流量(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)金(jin)額(e)上，總之，合理的(de)(de)(de)(de)現(xian)(xian)金(jin)流量(liang)(liang)(liang)對于(yu)維(wei)持(chi)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)持(chi)續經(jing)(jing)營(ying)(ying)具有非常重(zhong)要的(de)(de)(de)(de)影響(xiang)。為(wei)了(le)應(ying)對越來越復雜的(de)(de)(de)(de)經(jing)(jing)營(ying)(ying)環境，從(cong)(cong)而(er)(er)使(shi)得財(cai)(cai)務(wu)風(feng)險評(ping)價指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)反(fan)(fan)映企(qi)(qi)業(ye)經(jing)(jing)營(ying)(ying)的(de)(de)(de)(de)真實(shi)情況(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)，企(qi)(qi)業(ye)必須(xu)引入以現(xian)(xian)金(jin)流量(liang)(liang)(liang)為(wei)代表的(de)(de)(de)(de)財(cai)(cai)務(wu)風(feng)險評(ping)價指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)，然(ran)后嚴格(ge)監督和審查以現(xian)(xian)金(jin)流量(liang)(liang)(liang)為(wei)基礎的(de)(de)(de)(de)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)變化(hua)狀況(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)，從(cong)(cong)而(er)(er)及(ji)時的(de)(de)(de)(de)防范財(cai)(cai)務(wu)風(feng)險。

（二）對非(fei)財務風險指(zhi)標(biao)的(de)重視(shi)不足