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篇1

關鍵詞(ci)：懸索橋(qiao)；技術方案；風險評估

中圖分類號：C35 文獻標識碼： A

一、風險指(zhi)數矩陣法

風險(xian)指數矩陣法(fa)也(ye)稱為定級(ji)法(fa)。

其中：――施工風險；

――發生概率；

――事故危害程度；

風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)指數矩陣(zhen)(zhen)分(fen)析(xi)法常用于進行(xing)定(ding)性的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)估算。此分(fen)析(xi)法是將決定(ding)危(wei)險(xian)(xian)事件(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)兩種因素(su)，即危(wei)險(xian)(xian)事件(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)嚴(yan)重性和危(wei)險(xian)(xian)事件(jian)發生(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)可能(neng)性，按(an)其特點相(xiang)對(dui)劃分(fen)為(wei)等級，形成一(yi)種風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評價(jia)矩陣(zhen)(zhen)。本法操作簡單方便，能(neng)初步估算出危(wei)險(xian)(xian)事件(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)指數，進行(xing)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)分(fen)級。風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)指數矩陣(zhen)(zhen)分(fen)析(xi)法編制步驟為(wei)：

①由系(xi)統、分(fen)系(xi)統或設備(bei)的(de)故障、環境(jing)條件、設計缺陷、操作規程不(bu)當、人(ren)為(wei)(wei)差錯引起事(shi)故的(de)有害后(hou)果，將這(zhe)些后(hou)果的(de)嚴(yan)(yan)重程度相(xiang)對地(di)定(ding)性(xing)為(wei)(wei)若干(gan)級(ji)，稱為(wei)(wei)危險事(shi)件的(de)嚴(yan)(yan)重分(fen)級(ji)。通常嚴(yan)(yan)重性(xing)等級(ji)分(fen)為(wei)(wei)四級(ji)，見表1-1。

危險事件的嚴重(zhong)性分級(ji) 表1-1

②把上述危(wei)險事件發生的(de)可(ke)能(neng)性根據其(qi)出現的(de)頻繁(fan)程度相對地定性為(wei)若干級(ji)，稱為(wei)危(wei)險事件的(de)可(ke)能(neng)性等(deng)級(ji)。通(tong)常可(ke)能(neng)性等(deng)級(ji)分(fen)為(wei)五(wu)級(ji)，見表1-2。

危險事件(jian)的可(ke)能性(xing)等級 表1-2

③將上述危(wei)險源嚴重性和可能(neng)性等級制(zhi)成(cheng)矩(ju)陣并(bing)分別(bie)給(gei)以定性的加權指數，形成(cheng)風險評價指數矩(ju)陣，見表1-3。

風(feng)險評價指數 表1-3

矩陣中的(de)加(jia)權指(zhi)(zhi)數稱為(wei)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評估指(zhi)(zhi)數，指(zhi)(zhi)數從1到20是(shi)根據危險(xian)(xian)事件可(ke)能性(xing)和嚴重性(xing)水(shui)平綜合而(er)定的(de)，通常將最(zui)高風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)指(zhi)(zhi)數定為(wei)1，相對于(yu)危險(xian)(xian)事件是(shi)頻繁發生的(de)，并是(shi)有(you)災難性(xing)的(de)后果的(de)。最(zui)低風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)指(zhi)(zhi)數20，對應于(yu)危險(xian)(xian)事件是(shi)幾乎不可(ke)能發生而(er)且后果是(shi)輕微的(de)。數字等級的(de)劃分具有(you)隨意(yi)性(xing)，為(wei)了(le)便于(yu)區別各種風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)檔(dang)次，需要根據具體評價對象(xiang)確定風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評價指(zhi)(zhi)數。

④根據矩陣中的(de)指數確定不(bu)同類型的(de)決策結果，去(qu)確定風(feng)險等級(ji)，見表(biao)1-4。

⑤根據風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)等級(ji)確定(ding)相應的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)控(kong)制措施(shi)。一(yi)般來說1級(ji)為不可(ke)接(jie)受的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)；2級(ji)為不希望(wang)有(you)的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)；3級(ji)為需要采取控(kong)制措施(shi)才能接(jie)受的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)；4級(ji)為可(ke)接(jie)受的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)，需要引起(qi)注意(yi)。評價人員(yuan)可(ke)以結合實(shi)際情況(kuang)，綜合考(kao)慮風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)等級(ji)。

例如：采用鋼套箱圍堰(yan)施(shi)工方案，在“拼裝(zhuang)”工序的風(feng)險(xian)(xian)評估中(zhong)，事(shi)故頻(pin)率(lv)按“有時”，事(shi)件(jian)嚴重(zhong)性(xing)按“嚴重(zhong)”。查表得(de)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)指數為6，風(feng)險(xian)(xian)等級為2。

二、核對表法

兩種方案風(feng)險評估(gu)和比較 表1-5

以主(zhu)塔(ta)基礎(chu)圍堰設(she)計方案(an)的比(bi)選和(he)風險評估為例

南、北主塔均位于柳江岸坡上。北塔后側緊靠防洪堤，柳江水深7m～28m，塔基處水深5m～10m左右。圍堰設計提出鋼套箱圍堰和密排樁圍堰兩種方案，施工單位內部爭論較大。采用核對表法對兩個方案進行風險評估和比較，見表1-5。

通過分析上表(biao)：Ⅰ鋼套箱圍堰的平(ping)均(jun)風險(xian)值為(wei)；查(cha)表(biao)得風險(xian)等級(ji)為(wei)3級(ji)；

Ⅱ密排樁圍堰的(de)平均風險值為；查表(biao)得風險等(deng)級(ji)為4級(ji)。

同(tong)時，還經過經濟比(bi)較，最后確定(ding)采用鎖(suo)口(kou)鋼管樁密排樁的施工(gong)方案。在(zai)鎖(suo)口(kou)鋼管樁圍堰設(she)計時，還參照(zhao)風(feng)險管理評估的結果，對圍堰采取(qu)如(ru)下(xia)加強措(cuo)施：

①南(nan)岸(an)邊坡陡峭，采用卸載，形成7m寬的平臺。既有利于穩定，也便于施工。

②主塔位置(zhi)回填(tian)土(tu)方(fang)筑島（所用土(tu)方(fang)為錨碇挖(wa)出(chu)土(tu)），填(tian)筑寬度為塔基輪廓線外5m～10m。

③打入鎖口(kou)鋼(gang)管樁深度(du)除按圍堰(yan)本(ben)身穩(wen)定性計算外，還(huan)要計算邊坡（和防(fang)洪堤）的穩(wen)定。

④采用剛(gang)度大的(de)圓形(xing)鎖口鋼管樁代替(ti)鋼板樁，對穩定性有利。

三、 數值模擬法

數值(zhi)模擬法利用(yong)(yong)數學分析和工程力(li)學的(de)理論，能(neng)夠綜合(he)考慮許多復雜的(de)因素（如時間、空間、地下水、動荷載、接觸、振(zhen)動等力(li)學問題(ti)）甚至還能(neng)高度(du)仿真(zhen)。常用(yong)(yong)于(yu)巖土(tu)和結構的(de)安全穩定評(ping)估，預(yu)測施(shi)工安全，優化施(shi)工方案等。

在評估上節所述的(de)(de)主(zhu)塔基礎施工(gong)圍堰(yan)的(de)(de)風險和(he)比選時(shi)，利用(yong)數值(zhi)模(mo)擬分析法評估圍堰(yan)對防洪(hong)堤穩(wen)定性(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)影響。建立兩種圍堰(yan)和(he)防洪(hong)堤關(guan)系的(de)(de)計(ji)算模(mo)式，見(jian)圖1-1。利用(yong)巖土力學和(he)工(gong)程力學理(li)論分析防洪(hong)堤的(de)(de)穩(wen)定性(xing)(xing)。

a） 鋼套箱與堤壩的(de)關系(xi) b） 鎖口鋼管(guan)樁與堤壩的(de)關系(xi)

圖1-1 圍(wei)堰與堤壩(ba)位置(zhi)關系

數值(zhi)模擬法的主(zhu)要步驟是：

①構造所要(yao)分析的(de)問題的(de)幾何(he)模型(xing)；

②在(zai)幾(ji)何模型(xing)基礎上，構造所要分析問題的(de)數(shu)學模型(xing)，即事故數(shu)值模型(xing)；

③對劃(hua)分網(wang)格的幾何模型，施加初邊值條件，并給材(cai)料和接觸邊界賦予本構關(guan)系(xi)；

④計算(suan)分析，或對計算(suan)基礎參數進行(xing)分析后(hou)再計算(suan)分析，利(li)用(yong)表(biao)格、圖形(xing)、動畫(hua)表(biao)示結果形(xing)式、評判安全穩定性；

⑤優化施工方案，作出(chu)評價結論，提出(chu)措施建(jian)議；

四、 專家調查表(biao)（或稱(cheng)德爾菲法(fa)）

鋼箱梁(liang)的安裝，提(ti)出(chu)的三(san)種施工(gong)方法：

1 橋面吊機安裝方案

施工流程：

①主纜安裝完(wan)成(cheng)(cheng)后，邊跨采用支架(jia)法安裝完(wan)成(cheng)(cheng)；

②在(zai)(zai)主塔搭設臨時(shi)焊接(jie)平臺，在(zai)(zai)平臺上(shang)安(an)裝(zhuang)近塔的三塊鋼箱主梁，并安(an)裝(zhuang)斜吊桿(gan)。

③在橋(qiao)面(mian)上(shang)拼裝橋(qiao)面(mian)吊機；

④利用(yong)橋面吊機(ji)繼續對稱安裝鋼箱梁，見圖1-2。

a） 縱斷面圖 b） 橫斷面圖

1-2 橋面吊(diao)機安裝設計圖

2 施工棧橋安裝；見(jian)圖(tu)1-3。

①邊跨鋼箱梁采用支架(jia)法安(an)裝(zhuang)；

②在兩主塔之(zhi)間搭(da)設(she)連通(tong)(tong)的施工棧橋，在河中央設(she)3跨通(tong)(tong)航(hang)孔。

③在棧(zhan)橋上(shang)拼裝大(da)型龍門(men)吊；

④利用龍門(men)吊(diao)吊(diao)裝鋼箱(xiang)梁到設計位置，對位后焊接。鋼箱(xiang)梁在(zai)南岸制作，拼(pin)裝順序由北向南；

⑤鋼箱梁全(quan)部就(jiu)位后再(zai)對稱(cheng)安(an)裝吊桿。

a）縱(zong)斷面圖 b）縱(zong)斷面圖

圖1-3 棧(zhan)橋設計方(fang)案

3 單滑道多支點連(lian)續(xu)頂推架設(she)方案(an)

對(dui)以上三(san)(san)種方法，施(shi)工單位匯(hui)同設計(ji)、業主(zhu)三(san)(san)次(ci)組(zu)織多(duo)方專家評估、論證，最后確定采用第三(san)(san)種方案。

五、 結語

利用(yong)風險管理的(de)理念(nian)和(he)手段進行懸索橋(qiao)施工(gong)技術方(fang)案的(de)比選(xuan)和(he)評估(gu)(gu)，以選(xuan)取適應性和(he)操作性強、安全(quan)度高的(de)技術方(fang)案。為(wei)提(ti)高評估(gu)(gu)的(de)技術水平(ping)，一般須聘請專家(jia)組進行。

參考文獻：

篇2

關鍵詞：防洪排澇(lao)(lao)體(ti)系；建設(she)；排澇(lao)(lao)應急(ji)能力(li)

前言：近(jin)年來，城(cheng)市(shi)化進程不斷深化背景下(xia)，人們生(sheng)活(huo)水(shui)平得(de)到(dao)了(le)顯著(zhu)提(ti)升，對城(cheng)市(shi)基礎設施建(jian)設提(ti)出(chu)了(le)更高(gao)要(yao)求，特別是(shi)防洪(hong)(hong)排(pai)(pai)水(shui)體系(xi)，如果缺乏對該系(xi)統建(jian)設的關注，在遇(yu)到(dao)突況(kuang)時，勢必會給城(cheng)市(shi)居民生(sheng)活(huo)造成(cheng)麻(ma)煩，嚴重情(qing)況(kuang)下(xia)，還會造成(cheng)人身傷亡(wang)，提(ti)高(gao)城(cheng)市(shi)排(pai)(pai)澇應(ying)急能(neng)力顯得(de)尤為重要(yao)。因此，加強對城(cheng)市(shi)防洪(hong)(hong)排(pai)(pai)水(shui)體系(xi)建(jian)設的研究具(ju)有(you)現(xian)實(shi)意義。

一、現階段，我國城市防(fang)洪排(pai)澇現狀分析

現(xian)階段(duan)，我國城市(shi)防洪(hong)(hong)排(pai)(pai)澇(lao)體(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)主(zhu)要是由防洪(hong)(hong)及(ji)排(pai)(pai)水(shui)兩套系(xi)(xi)統(tong)組成，城市(shi)堤壩一般將(jiang)抵御洪(hong)(hong)水(shui)作為(wei)核心目標，而室內排(pai)(pai)水(shui)管(guan)網系(xi)(xi)統(tong)則主(zhu)要承擔(dan)地面(mian)(mian)徑流任務。我國城市(shi)防洪(hong)(hong)排(pai)(pai)澇(lao)體(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)建(jian)設中，存在(zai)(zai)一些問(wen)題及(ji)不足之處，具體(ti)(ti)表現(xian)在(zai)(zai)地面(mian)(mian)徑流引導(dao)不當、排(pai)(pai)水(shui)設施老化及(ji)管(guan)網規劃不合(he)理等方面(mian)(mian)，上述種種問(wen)題的出現(xian)，在(zai)(zai)很大程度上增加了城市(shi)洪(hong)(hong)澇(lao)災害的發生(sheng)(sheng)機(ji)會，究(jiu)其(qi)根(gen)本，主(zhu)要是受到(dao)(dao)防洪(hong)(hong)體(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)建(jian)設不到(dao)(dao)位、排(pai)(pai)水(shui)管(guan)網及(ji)防洪(hong)(hong)排(pai)(pai)水(shui)體(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)缺(que)乏合(he)理性等因素造成的。城市(shi)防洪(hong)(hong)排(pai)(pai)澇(lao)體(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)與人(ren)們(men)生(sheng)(sheng)活息息相(xiang)關(guan)，體(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)建(jian)設不到(dao)(dao)位，直接給城市(shi)生(sheng)(sheng)產、生(sheng)(sheng)活帶來了消極影響(xiang)。

二、城(cheng)市防(fang)洪 排澇體系建(jian)設存在的不足(zu)之處(chu)

（一）權(quan)責劃(hua)分不夠(gou)明確(que)

部(bu)分城(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)防(fang)(fang)洪排澇體(ti)系管(guan)理(li)職(zhi)能是由市(shi)政(zheng)、水利、城(cheng)(cheng)管(guan)等多(duo)個(ge)部(bu)門共(gong)同(tong)負責，其(qi)中(zhong)水利部(bu)門主(zhu)要承擔防(fang)(fang)洪，而(er)市(shi)政(zheng)及(ji)城(cheng)(cheng)管(guan)則(ze)負責排澇，由于權(quan)責劃分不夠明(ming)確，不僅會造成部(bu)門權(quan)力較差，還(huan)會導致互相推卸責任現象的(de)出現，對工作銜接質(zhi)量產生消(xiao)極影響，使得管(guan)理(li)效果大(da)打折扣，造成防(fang)(fang)洪與(yu)排澇管(guan)理(li)之間(jian)相脫節。同(tong)時(shi)，城(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)部(bu)分區域在規劃建設(she)之初(chu)，便沒(mei)有對管(guan)理(li)范圍及(ji)職(zhi)責進行有效劃分，留(liu)下了隱患，難以為體(ti)系建設(she)提供支持。

（二）監測預警體系不健(jian)全

誠然，我國城市(shi)在(zai)(zai)(zai)長期發展過(guo)程中，已經(jing)逐(zhu)步構建(jian)較(jiao)(jiao)為(wei)完善的水(shui)雨(yu)監(jian)測體(ti)系(xi)，氣(qi)象預報準確性(xing)及精(jing)度(du)有了較(jiao)(jiao)大提升，在(zai)(zai)(zai)防洪防澇等方(fang)面(mian)意義重大，但是，就現階段情況來看，監(jian)測預警(jing)體(ti)系(xi)建(jian)設及實(shi)踐方(fang)面(mian)存在(zai)(zai)(zai)一(yi)些(xie)不足之(zhi)處，例如：區域監(jian)測點布局(ju)密度(du)較(jiao)(jiao)低等，難以形成高效(xiao)、網絡化布局(ju)體(ti)系(xi)，城市(shi)群(qun)測群(qun)防體(ti)系(xi)建(jian)設有待加強，另外，在(zai)(zai)(zai)監(jian)測體(ti)系(xi)建(jian)設過(guo)程中，雖然，信(xin)息技術得(de)到了充分(fen)利用，但是，在(zai)(zai)(zai)信(xin)息整合與共(gong)享方(fang)面(mian)效(xiao)果并不好，由于水(shui)雨(yu)監(jian)測信(xin)息主要(yao)來源于氣(qi)象部門(men)、水(shui)文部門(men)等，部門(men)之(zhi)間并沒(mei)有建(jian)立(li)合作關(guan)系(xi)，直接影響信(xin)息共(gong)享價(jia)值。

（三）預案(an)體系較為落后

目前，我國僅有部(bu)分發達城市建立了專門的(de)城市防(fang)洪(hong)排澇(lao)專項(xiang)預案(an)(an)，并將(jiang)該項(xiang)工作提高到戰略(lve)高度(du)，但是，在具體預案(an)(an)建設中，缺少(shao)對(dui)城市地(di)下(xia)空間、低洼區域等部(bu)分的(de)研(yan)究，缺少(shao)后續配套應急預案(an)(an)，且該體系建設在向基(ji)層延伸方面工作落實效果并不(bu)明顯，使得洪(hong)水(shui)風險(xian)圖、信息更新不(bu)及時等情況普遍存在，影(ying)響城市防(fang)洪(hong)排澇(lao)工作發揮積極作用。

（四）缺少(shao)風險評估機制(zhi)

城市(shi)規劃建設(she)過程中，很多(duo)重點項目(mu)并(bing)(bing)沒有(you)進行針對性的(de)防(fang)洪(hong)排澇(lao)風險評估工作(zuo)，除了部分涉及河道等方面的(de)項目(mu)，水利與市(shi)政部門(men)(men)參與立項，其他諸多(duo)工程項目(mu)并(bing)(bing)沒有(you)進行專門(men)(men)性風險評估，且很多(duo)與城市(shi)運行發展息息相(xiang)關的(de)供(gong)電、供(gong)水等工程缺乏(fa)專門(men)(men)性建設(she)評估，使得在(zai)具體施工過程中，存在(zai)破(po)壞(huai)原有(you)防(fang)洪(hong)排澇(lao)系統、改變排水管網等問題(ti)，導致城市(shi)防(fang)洪(hong)排澇(lao)能力較弱。

三(san)、加強防洪排澇體系建設，提高城市排澇應急能力的有效途徑

隨(sui)著(zhu)(zhu)國民經(jing)濟快速發展，人們生活(huo)水平得到了(le)顯著(zhu)(zhu)提升，對城(cheng)市(shi)排澇應急能(neng)力提出了(le)更高(gao)要(yao)求，因而(er)，針(zhen)對城(cheng)市(shi)防(fang)洪排澇體(ti)系建設(she)中存在的問題，可以通(tong)過以下(xia)幾(ji)個方(fang)面入手(shou)：

（一）結合實(shi)際情況，建立高效洪澇管理機制(zhi)

要想(xiang)有(you)效提高城市(shi)排(pai)澇(lao)應(ying)急(ji)能力，單純依靠一個部(bu)門(men)(men)(men)難以(yi)實(shi)(shi)(shi)現(xian)這一目標，需要市(shi)政(zheng)、水利(li)(li)及(ji)城管等(deng)多個部(bu)門(men)(men)(men)共同協作，確(que)保(bao)防洪(hong)排(pai)澇(lao)管理信息(xi)實(shi)(shi)(shi)時共享(xiang)，明確(que)不(bu)同部(bu)門(men)(men)(men)權(quan)責，并適(shi)當(dang)加強聯合演習，以(yi)提高組織保(bao)障與應(ying)急(ji)管理能力。不(bu)但如(ru)此，還需要充分結合城市(shi)防洪(hong)排(pai)澇(lao)管理等(deng)實(shi)(shi)(shi)際情況，逐漸完善(shan)預(yu)警(jing)(jing)監測(ce)體系，利(li)(li)用(yong)計算機、互聯網技術，強化(hua)(hua)信息(xi)共享(xiang)性和服(fu)務性，并立足于(yu)整體，將(jiang)分布在(zai)各個部(bu)門(men)(men)(men)的系統信息(xi)進行有(you)效整合，實(shi)(shi)(shi)現(xian)多部(bu)門(men)(men)(men)信息(xi)高效、同步共享(xiang)，同時，還需要從多個角(jiao)度入手，加強體系建(jian)設，強化(hua)(hua)城市(shi)災情預(yu)警(jing)(jing)監測(ce)能力，例(li)如(ru)：為了提高氣象部(bu)門(men)(men)(men)對短(duan)時間對流(liu)天氣的檢測(ce)能力，可(ke)以(yi)建(jian)立專(zhuan)門(men)(men)(men)的協同合作平(ping)臺，將(jiang)市(shi)政(zheng)部(bu)門(men)(men)(men)、水利(li)(li)機構(gou)等(deng)納入平(ping)臺之中(zhong)，及(ji)時預(yu)警(jing)(jing)信息(xi)，為各部(bu)門(men)(men)(men)做(zuo)好(hao)防洪(hong)排(pai)澇(lao)工作提供支持(chi)和幫助(zhu)。

另外(wai)(wai)，城(cheng)市(shi)暴(bao)雨作為考驗城(cheng)市(shi)防(fang)洪(hong)(hong)排(pai)澇(lao)能力(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)主要(yao)因素 ，應加強(qiang)對城(cheng)市(shi)內(nei)暴(bao)雨洪(hong)(hong)水(shui)(shui)布設點的(de)(de)(de)(de)監(jian)督和(he)管(guan)理(li)，廣(guang)泛收集有效信(xin)息(xi)，建(jian)立(li)健全(quan)(quan)風險防(fang)范(fan)機制，保障城(cheng)市(shi)居民人身、財(cai)產安(an)全(quan)(quan)。洪(hong)(hong)水(shui)(shui)無情(qing)，為了能夠為城(cheng)市(shi)居民創造(zao)一個安(an)全(quan)(quan)、良好的(de)(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)活(huo)環境(jing)，要(yao)結合城(cheng)市(shi)水(shui)(shui)文地質情(qing)況，及(ji)時更新信(xin)息(xi)，適當增加人力(li)、物力(li)及(ji)財(cai)力(li)，加強(qiang)防(fang)波堤壩(ba)、調洪(hong)(hong)水(shui)(shui)庫(ku)等方(fang)面(mian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)建(jian)設，進行災(zai)情(qing)模(mo)擬，構(gou)建(jian)完(wan)善的(de)(de)(de)(de)應急預案，以此來(lai)提升應急處理(li)能力(li)。此外(wai)(wai)，政(zheng)府部門要(yao)加大對防(fang)洪(hong)(hong)排(pai)澇(lao)工(gong)作的(de)(de)(de)(de)宣傳力(li)度，引導全(quan)(quan)民樹立(li)保護意識，能夠在(zai)遇到災(zai)情(qing)時，妥善處理(li)各方(fang)面(mian)事(shi)宜，保障人身、財(cai)產安(an)全(quan)(quan)，下圖為沈陽市(shi)整合各類防(fang)洪(hong)(hong)排(pai)水(shui)(shui)體系(xi)方(fang)案。

圖(tu)1 沈陽市整合各類防洪排(pai)水體系(xi)

（二）立足于城市(shi)長遠發展，優化市(shi)政排(pai)水管網(wang)設(she)計(ji)

現階段，我國部分城(cheng)市(shi)(shi)現有市(shi)(shi)政(zheng)排(pai)(pai)水(shui)管(guan)(guan)(guan)網(wang)作為(wei)城(cheng)市(shi)(shi)防洪排(pai)(pai)澇的(de)關鍵，其設(she)計(ji)(ji)合(he)理(li)與否直接影(ying)響城(cheng)市(shi)(shi)排(pai)(pai)澇應急(ji)能(neng)力。因而，應加強(qiang)(qiang)對(dui)城(cheng)市(shi)(shi)排(pai)(pai)水(shui)管(guan)(guan)(guan)網(wang)的(de)調整和(he)(he)優(you)化，綜合(he)考慮管(guan)(guan)(guan)徑和(he)(he)水(shui)利參數，對(dui)已(yi)經確定的(de)給排(pai)(pai)水(shui)管(guan)(guan)(guan)網(wang)進(jin)(jin)行(xing)合(he)理(li)分配，提(ti)升管(guan)(guan)(guan)網(wang)排(pai)(pai)水(shui)能(neng)力，且在具(ju)體規劃(hua)(hua)中，可以利用(yong)優(you)化算法對(dui)管(guan)(guan)(guan)道管(guan)(guan)(guan)徑進(jin)(jin)行(xing)有效計(ji)(ji)算，實現以最少投入(ru)創(chuang)造最大價值(zhi)，不(bu)僅(jin)如此，也可以使(shi)用(yong)遺傳算法、非線性規劃(hua)(hua)法及動態規劃(hua)(hua)法等進(jin)(jin)行(xing)二(er)次優(you)化設(she)計(ji)(ji)，提(ti)高(gao)預測準確度(du)(du)。另外，還需要加強(qiang)(qiang)對(dui)城(cheng)市(shi)(shi)周邊(bian)水(shui)域流量(liang)進(jin)(jin)行(xing)分析和(he)(he)研究，為(wei)市(shi)(shi)政(zheng)管(guan)(guan)(guan)網(wang)設(she)計(ji)(ji)提(ti)供(gong)支(zhi)持和(he)(he)幫(bang)助，最大限度(du)(du)消除(chu)洪澇災(zai)害，進(jin)(jin)而推動城(cheng)市(shi)(shi)可持續發展，下圖為(wei)某城(cheng)市(shi)(shi)市(shi)(shi)政(zheng)排(pai)(pai)水(shui)管(guan)(guan)(guan)網(wang)設(she)計(ji)(ji)方案。

圖2 某市政排水管網設(she)計方(fang)案

（三）充分利用現代技術，強化防洪排澇風險能力

城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)(shi)化進(jin)程(cheng)日漸深(shen)化，人們對城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)(shi)建(jian)設(she)管(guan)理提(ti)出了更高要(yao)求，為(wei)了滿足智慧城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)(shi)建(jian)設(she)發展(zhan)需求，城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)(shi)建(jian)設(she)過程(cheng)中(zhong)，要(yao)加強對城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)(shi)周邊實(shi)際情(qing)況的(de)(de)調查和研究，綜合各方(fang)面信(xin)息(xi)(xi)，并(bing)借鑒(jian)以(yi)往洪澇災害實(shi)際情(qing)況，充分利(li)用信(xin)息(xi)(xi)、GPS等(deng)現代技術，構建(jian)完善(shan)的(de)(de)風險分析圖，為(wei)城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)(shi)建(jian)設(she)提(ti)供指導。另外，針對城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)(shi)建(jian)設(she)中(zhong)較為(wei)重要(yao)的(de)(de)項目(mu)，應對項目(mu)進(jin)行(xing)防(fang)洪排(pai)(pai)澇進(jin)行(xing)安(an)全性(xing)分析，并(bing)交由水利(li)、市(shi)(shi)(shi)政等(deng)相關部門進(jin)行(xing)審核(he)，審核(he)通過后，才(cai)能(neng)夠進(jin)行(xing)運(yun)作，消除城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)(shi)建(jian)設(she)對防(fang)洪排(pai)(pai)澇體系產生的(de)(de)消極影響，提(ti)升城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)(shi)防(fang)洪排(pai)(pai)澇應急能(neng)力。目(mu)前，我國城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)(shi)在防(fang)洪排(pai)(pai)澇體系方(fang)面取得一定成績，但是，與發達國家相比仍然存在一定差(cha)距，所以(yi)，在城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)(shi)建(jian)設(she)中(zhong)，可(ke)以(yi)積極學習和借鑒(jian)其他(ta)國家經驗(yan)，強化自(zi)身實(shi)踐能(neng)力。

結論：根據上文所述，我(wo)國(guo)城市(shi)(shi)防(fang)洪(hong)(hong)排澇(lao)(lao)能力有(you)待(dai)提(ti)升(sheng)，在城市(shi)(shi)建(jian)設(she)中，要(yao)立足于城市(shi)(shi)未(wei)來發展需求(qiu)，并了(le)解和掌握城市(shi)(shi)防(fang)洪(hong)(hong)排澇(lao)(lao)工(gong)作存(cun)在的問(wen)題，采取針對性措施，建(jian)立預案、監測體(ti)系，完(wan)善市(shi)(shi)政(zheng)管網設(she)計(ji)，充(chong)分利用現代技術，提(ti)升(sheng)城市(shi)(shi)防(fang)洪(hong)(hong)排澇(lao)(lao)能力，從而為(wei)智慧城市(shi)(shi)建(jian)設(she)保駕護航。

參考文獻：

[1]王慧敏，陳蓉，佟(tong)金萍.“科(ke)層(ceng)-合作”制下的(de)洪災應急管理組(zu)織體(ti)系(xi)探討(tao)――以淮河流(liu)域為例[J].河海大學學報（哲學社會科(ke)學版），2010，18（03）：259-261.

篇3

關鍵詞:防洪工程;質量;管理(li)

中圖分類號:F407.9文獻標識(shi)碼(ma):A

防洪(hong)(hong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)管理是確保工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)安(an)(an)全、充(chong)分(fen)發揮(hui)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)效益的(de)(de)重要手段,但目(mu)前在(zai)(zai)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)管理方面還存(cun)在(zai)(zai)一(yi)些問(wen)題(ti),在(zai)(zai)規(gui)劃、設計階段要充(chong)分(fen)考慮到或在(zai)(zai)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)階段能(neng)加(jia)以認(ren)真對待,為防洪(hong)(hong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)建(jian)設提(ti)供(gong)可靠(kao)的(de)(de)技(ji)術(shu)依據和技(ji)術(shu)保證,從(cong)而(er)能(neng)夠減(jian)少或避(bi)免(mian)這(zhe)些問(wen)題(ti)對防洪(hong)(hong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)安(an)(an)全性的(de)(de)影響,真正發揮(hui)防洪(hong)(hong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)的(de)(de)作用。

一、防洪工程的建設特(te)點

防(fang)洪(hong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)建(jian)設(she)(she)不同(tong)于(yu)其他水利工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng),是在保(bao)(bao)證河流安全度汛的(de)前提(ti)下對防(fang)洪(hong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)進(jin)行(xing)加高加固,消除險點隱患。防(fang)洪(hong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)建(jian)設(she)(she)普遍(bian)存在時間緊(jin)、任務重的(de)特點。防(fang)洪(hong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)建(jian)設(she)(she)前,首先要進(jin)行(xing)科學規劃(hua),精心(xin)設(she)(she)計,認真系統地做(zuo)好規劃(hua)論證和工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)設(she)(she)計等前期工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)作,為防(fang)洪(hong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)建(jian)設(she)(she)提(ti)供可(ke)靠的(de)技術依據和技術保(bao)(bao)證,有利于(yu)選擇重點分期分階段實(shi)施(shi),從而避免邊施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)邊設(she)(she)計造成的(de)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)考(kao)慮不周的(de)情況(kuang),杜(du)絕工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)建(jian)設(she)(she)隨意變更和浪費資金現象的(de)發生(sheng),確保(bao)(bao)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)建(jian)設(she)(she)科學、規范(fan)、有序。參(can)建(jian)各方必(bi)須(xu)加強(qiang)對工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)項目的(de)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)管理,嚴格按照基建(jian)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)序施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong),建(jian)立健(jian)全質量(liang)體系,提(ti)高工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)作效(xiao)率,確保(bao)(bao)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)建(jian)設(she)(she)質量(liang)。

二、防洪工程的項目管理

(一(yi))加強管(guan)理(li),確保(bao)工(gong)程建設(she)質(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)。防(fang)(fang)洪(hong)(hong)工(gong)程在(zai)建設(she)過程中,具(ju)有一(yi)次性和經受汛期檢(jian)驗的(de)(de)(de)特點。如(ru)(ru)果發現質(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)存在(zai)問題(ti),就必須采取(qu)補救措施或重(zhong)新建設(she),同時也會推遲工(gong)程的(de)(de)(de)竣工(gong)時間,影響(xiang)投資效益(yi)的(de)(de)(de)發揮,甚至會造成(cheng)洪(hong)(hong)災(zai)損失。因此,如(ru)(ru)何(he)確保(bao)工(gong)程的(de)(de)(de)建設(she)質(zhi)(zhi)量(liang),就成(cheng)為防(fang)(fang)洪(hong)(hong)項目管(guan)理(li)是否成(cheng)功的(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)點。在(zai)整(zheng)個(ge)(ge)建設(she)過程中采取(qu)施工(gong)單位(wei)保(bao)證(zheng)、監(jian)理(li)單位(wei)控(kong)制、建設(she)單位(wei)檢(jian)查、質(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)監(jian)督(du)部門(men)監(jian)督(du)、上級主管(guan)部門(men)督(du)查的(de)(de)(de)質(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)保(bao)證(zheng)體系,并層層落實、相互(hu)制約。控(kong)制好工(gong)序質(zhi)(zhi)量(liang),就應做到對(dui)每道工(gong)序、每個(ge)(ge)工(gong)作面實施監(jian)督(du)操(cao)作、檢(jian)驗把關、預防(fang)(fang)和檢(jian)測(ce)檢(jian)驗相結合的(de)(de)(de)管(guan)理(li)控(kong)制方法。

(二)保(bao)證(zheng)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)項(xiang)目按照計劃(hua)(hua)(hua)進行。防洪工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)建設的(de)時(shi)間(jian)緊、工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)期(qi)短,一般是(shi)在(zai)(zai)汛后枯水季節開(kai)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong),來(lai)年汛期(qi)到來(lai)之前完(wan)成。在(zai)(zai)進度(du)管理上,主要是(shi)制定進度(du)計劃(hua)(hua)(hua),確定施(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)項(xiang)目中各(ge)個單位(wei)、各(ge)個工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)種(zhong)在(zai)(zai)施(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)中的(de)銜接與(yu)配合、勞動力安排,各(ge)種(zhong)施(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)物資、材料(liao)的(de)供應時(shi)間(jian),確定各(ge)分部(bu)、分項(xiang)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)的(de)完(wan)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)時(shi)間(jian),并(bing)(bing)加(jia)強(qiang)對施(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)進度(du)計劃(hua)(hua)(hua)執(zhi)行情(qing)況的(de)反(fan)饋和(he)(he)檢查,從中找出項(xiang)目實際執(zhi)行情(qing)況與(yu)進度(du)計劃(hua)(hua)(hua)的(de)偏差,及時(shi)進行修正和(he)(he)調(diao)整(zheng)。特別是(shi)要掌握施(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)現(xian)(xian)(xian)場的(de)實際情(qing)況,并(bing)(bing)采(cai)取適(shi)當(dang)的(de)技(ji)術和(he)(he)組織措施(shi)(shi)做好協調(diao)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)作,排除施(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)中出現(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)矛盾,實現(xian)(xian)(xian)動態控制,保(bao)證(zheng)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)項(xiang)目的(de)施(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)嚴(yan)格按照計劃(hua)(hua)(hua)進行。

(三(san))有(you)效控制(zhi)(zhi)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)成(cheng)本。在項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)成(cheng)本的管理控制(zhi)(zhi)上(shang),要堅持動態控制(zhi)(zhi)原(yuan)則,在項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)實(shi)施(shi)(shi)過(guo)程中對(dui)工(gong)程發生的費用支出進行(xing)(xing)檢(jian)查、復核和(he)糾(jiu)偏。要使成(cheng)本控制(zhi)(zhi)工(gong)作得到有(you)效的實(shi)施(shi)(shi),保(bao)證工(gong)程項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)最大限度地產(chan)生合理的經濟效益,還(huan)應對(dui)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)成(cheng)本進行(xing)(xing)全(quan)員、全(quan)過(guo)程控制(zhi)(zhi)。

在施(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)準備(bei)階(jie)段,要設(she)立成(cheng)本(ben)目(mu)標,做出(chu)成(cheng)本(ben)計(ji)劃,編制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)成(cheng)本(ben)控制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)方(fang)(fang)案,為(wei)成(cheng)本(ben)控制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)做好準備(bei);在制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)定(ding)(ding)施(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)方(fang)(fang)案時(shi)要綜合考(kao)慮(lv)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程項目(mu)的(de)(de)規(gui)模(mo)、性質、難易程度、現場情況(kuang)、設(she)備(bei)情況(kuang)和(he)(he)人員素質,分別制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)定(ding)(ding)幾(ji)個(ge)施(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)方(fang)(fang)案,在進行比較對(dui)照后,最終確定(ding)(ding)最優施(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)方(fang)(fang)案,最大限度地降低工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程成(cheng)本(ben);應(ying)及(ji)時(shi)應(ying)用(yong)(yong)最先(xian)進的(de)(de)施(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)技術和(he)(he)施(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)藝,及(ji)時(shi)修(xiu)正施(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)組(zu)織(zhi)設(she)計(ji)和(he)(he)施(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)方(fang)(fang)案,盡(jin)可能地降低材(cai)料和(he)(he)人工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)消耗;要把成(cheng)本(ben)計(ji)劃目(mu)標進行分解,落實(shi)到(dao)項目(mu)組(zu)的(de)(de)各個(ge)部(bu)門和(he)(he)各個(ge)施(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)班組(zu),制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)定(ding)(ding)出(chu)相關的(de)(de)規(gui)章制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)度,對(dui)節(jie)約者給予獎勵,對(dui)造(zao)成(cheng)浪費和(he)(he)直接(jie)經濟損失者給予處罰,保證管理者的(de)(de)切身經濟利(li)益與項目(mu)成(cheng)本(ben)掛鉤(gou);嚴格(ge)控制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)間接(jie)費用(yong)(yong)和(he)(he)管理費用(yong)(yong)的(de)(de)支(zhi)出(chu)。

(四)項(xiang)目的(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)預(yu)測和(he)管(guan)理。項(xiang)目風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)預(yu)測和(he)管(guan)理是決定(ding)(ding)項(xiang)目成敗的(de)又一重(zhong)要(yao)環(huan)節(jie),風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理可采(cai)用定(ding)(ding)性與定(ding)(ding)量相結合(he)的(de)方法(fa)(fa),根據可能(neng)出現(xian)的(de)環(huan)境條件,對將來(lai)可能(neng)發(fa)生(sheng)的(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)做(zuo)出預(yu)測,并(bing)制(zhi)定(ding)(ding)相應的(de)防范措施和(he)解決方案。風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評估采(cai)用概率論、決策(ce)樹等方法(fa)(fa)對項(xiang)目的(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評估指標(biao)進行量化,并(bing)根據不(bu)同的(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)狀況分(fen)別采(cai)用:風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)認(ren)可、風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)適應、風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)避免和(he)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)轉移的(de)應對戰略。在(zai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理中(zhong),要(yao)著重(zhong)抓好風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)預(yu)測和(he)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)對策(ce)研究這兩個關鍵環(huan)節(jie),提(ti)高(gao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)預(yu)測和(he)控(kong)制(zhi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)能(neng)力(li),最大(da)限(xian)度地(di)避免風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)發(fa)生(sheng)。

三、建立健全(quan)質量體系

施(shi)工(gong)單(dan)位是工(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)建(jian)設(she)(she)的(de)主體,施(shi)工(gong)隊伍的(de)確定直接(jie)影響工(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)建(jian)設(she)(she)質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)(liang)。因此,必須通過招標選擇實力強、有類似工(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)施(shi)工(gong)經驗的(de)隊伍承擔工(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)建(jian)設(she)(she)任(ren)(ren)務。施(shi)工(gong)單(dan)位必須建(jian)立健全質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)(liang)保(bao)證(zheng)體系(xi),通過建(jian)立組織(zhi)、制定制度、編制計(ji)劃、明確責(ze)任(ren)(ren)等程(cheng)(cheng)序(xu)和(he)措施(shi),開(kai)展(zhan)全面質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)(liang)管理;并制定相應(ying)的(de)規章制度,確保(bao)質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)(liang)保(bao)證(zheng)體系(xi)的(de)良好運行(xing)。認真落實施(shi)工(gong)質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)(liang)“三檢制”,搞好工(gong)序(xu)質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)(liang)控(kong)制,主動接(jie)受質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)(liang)監督(du)(du)機構的(de)監督(du)(du)和(he)檢查,提(ti)高工(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)建(jian)設(she)(she)水平,確保(bao)工(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)建(jian)設(she)(she)質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)(liang)。

監理(li)(li)單位應建(jian)立健全質(zhi)量控制(zhi)體(ti)系,督促施工單位質(zhi)量保證(zheng)體(ti)系的(de)建(jian)立和(he)(he)良好(hao)運行。嚴格(ge)按照規范和(he)(he)監理(li)(li)合(he)同賦予的(de)權力搞好(hao)工程監理(li)(li),搞好(hao)工序質(zhi)量控制(zhi)。加強對隱蔽(bi)工程和(he)(he)工程關(guan)鍵部位的(de)監理(li)(li),積極參加隱蔽(bi)、單元、分(fen)部和(he)(he)單位工程驗收(shou),把好(hao)質(zhi)量關(guan)。不(bu)經驗收(shou)合(he)格(ge),不(bu)允許(xu)進入下道工序施工。

實行建(jian)(jian)設(she)監(jian)理(li)制后,監(jian)理(li)單(dan)(dan)位對(dui)工(gong)程(cheng)項(xiang)目的質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)(liang)控制是(shi)隨時(shi)的、連續(xu)的,但不能完全代替(ti)建(jian)(jian)設(she)單(dan)(dan)位的質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)(liang)檢(jian)查(cha)(cha)(cha)。建(jian)(jian)設(she)單(dan)(dan)位應建(jian)(jian)立健全質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)(liang)檢(jian)查(cha)(cha)(cha)體系(xi),派駐質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)(liang)檢(jian)查(cha)(cha)(cha)人員,對(dui)工(gong)程(cheng)項(xiang)目各階(jie)段特別是(shi)施工(gong)階(jie)段進行質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)(liang)檢(jian)查(cha)(cha)(cha),發現問題(ti),及時(shi)責成有關單(dan)(dan)位進行整改。及時(shi)參(can)與隱蔽工(gong)程(cheng)、分部工(gong)程(cheng)等的驗收,組織由參(can)建(jian)(jian)各方參(can)加的聯合(he)檢(jian)查(cha)(cha)(cha),協助監(jian)理(li)和施工(gong)單(dan)(dan)位認真履行監(jian)理(li)合(he)同和施工(gong)合(he)同,發揮質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)(liang)管(guan)理(li)的主導作用,控制工(gong)程(cheng)建(jian)(jian)設(she)質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)(liang)。

四、提(ti)高工程質量的主要措(cuo)施

(一)嚴格施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)序(xu),增強(qiang)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)人員的(de)(de)(de)質量(liang)意識。工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)前期,根據有關(guan)規定(ding)和(he)(he)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)項(xiang)(xiang)目的(de)(de)(de)具體情況,施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)單(dan)位應(ying)積極配合(he)監(jian)理(li)搞(gao)好(hao)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)項(xiang)(xiang)目劃(hua)分,并經(jing)質量(liang)監(jian)督機(ji)構認可,作(zuo)為工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)、質量(liang)檢查、評定(ding)和(he)(he)驗收的(de)(de)(de)依據,施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)單(dan)位據此(ci)進行工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)項(xiang)(xiang)目管(guan)理(li)。嚴格按照規范(fan)、基(ji)建(jian)(jian)程(cheng)序(xu)和(he)(he)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)合(he)同(tong)組(zu)織施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)。監(jian)理(li)單(dan)位嚴格按照規范(fan)和(he)(he)監(jian)理(li)合(he)同(tong)的(de)(de)(de)要求(qiu)實(shi)施(shi)監(jian)理(li),采取事(shi)前、事(shi)中和(he)(he)事(shi)后(hou)控制相結(jie)合(he)的(de)(de)(de)方法,搞(gao)好(hao)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)項(xiang)(xiang)目的(de)(de)(de)監(jian)理(li)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)作(zuo)。建(jian)(jian)立(li)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)項(xiang)(xiang)目監(jian)理(li)日志和(he)(he)監(jian)理(li)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)作(zuo)檔案(an),強(qiang)化(hua)基(ji)礎(chu)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)作(zuo),保(bao)持質量(liang)管(guan)理(li)和(he)(he)控制資料的(de)(de)(de)齊全、完整(zheng)。

在工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)建設過程(cheng)中,為提高施工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)員(yuan)業務水(shui)平和(he)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)能力(li),結合工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)建設的(de)實際情況,及時(shi)將(jiang)有關的(de)質量(liang)標(biao)準(zhun)、質量(liang)管理辦法(fa)和(he)質量(liang)缺陷(xian)處罰(fa)辦法(fa)等(deng)印發到全體(ti)質檢(jian)(jian)(jian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)員(yuan)和(he)各(ge)施工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)班組,認真進行(xing)學習,增(zeng)強參建各(ge)方(fang)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)員(yuan)的(de)質量(liang)意識。同時(shi),對難度(du)較大的(de)項(xiang)目,組織質檢(jian)(jian)(jian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)員(yuan)和(he)主要施工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)技術人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)員(yuan)進行(xing)短期(qi)培訓,使其掌握施工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)要點、質量(liang)檢(jian)(jian)(jian)查(cha)標(biao)準(zhun)、質量(liang)評(ping)定(ding)(ding)的(de)具體(ti)內容和(he)方(fang)法(fa),保證工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)質量(liang)檢(jian)(jian)(jian)查(cha)規范化(hua)和(he)評(ping)定(ding)(ding)標(biao)準(zhun)化(hua)。制定(ding)(ding)質量(liang)檢(jian)(jian)(jian)查(cha)制度(du)、工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)制度(du)、檢(jian)(jian)(jian)查(cha)方(fang)式和(he)獎懲措施,明(ming)(ming)確(que)質檢(jian)(jian)(jian)任務,使質檢(jian)(jian)(jian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)員(yuan)的(de)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)目標(biao)、責任和(he)權力(li)明(ming)(ming)確(que),調動(dong)廣(guang)大質檢(jian)(jian)(jian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)員(yuan)的(de)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)積極性,促(cu)進質檢(jian)(jian)(jian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)水(shui)平的(de)不斷提高。

(二)嚴(yan)格(ge)(ge)控制工(gong)(gong)(gong)程建設(she)質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)。施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)單位(wei)(wei)要(yao)嚴(yan)格(ge)(ge)按照批準(zhun)的施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)組織(zhi)設(she)計、施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)圖紙和有關規(gui)范進行(xing)施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong),確(que)保工(gong)(gong)(gong)程建設(she)質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)。對(dui)隱蔽工(gong)(gong)(gong)程、關鍵(jian)(jian)部位(wei)(wei)和關鍵(jian)(jian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)序,要(yao)加強施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)現(xian)場管(guan)理(li)(li),嚴(yan)格(ge)(ge)質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)檢查(cha)手續,及時報現(xian)場監(jian)理(li)(li)驗收。對(dui)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)不(bu)合格(ge)(ge)的部位(wei)(wei),及時進行(xing)返工(gong)(gong)(gong)處理(li)(li),不(bu)放(fang)過(guo)任何一處質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)隱患。自覺接受監(jian)理(li)(li)單位(wei)(wei)的檢查(cha)、監(jian)督和管(guan)理(li)(li),全過(guo)程接受建設(she)單位(wei)(wei)和質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)監(jian)督機構的監(jian)督與檢查(cha),達(da)到施(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)合同(tong)規(gui)定的質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)要(yao)求。

建設(she)單(dan)位及(ji)時(shi)對工程(cheng)質量(liang)(liang)進(jin)行(xing)(xing)檢(jian)查(cha),定(ding)期組織(zhi)由參(can)建各方(fang)參(can)加(jia)的聯合檢(jian)查(cha),發現質量(liang)(liang)問題,責成(cheng)有(you)關單(dan)位限(xian)期進(jin)行(xing)(xing)整改。加(jia)大工作交流(liu)力度,共同促進(jin)工程(cheng)質量(liang)(liang)的不斷提高。質量(liang)(liang)監(jian)督(du)機(ji)構代表政府行(xing)(xing)使(shi)質量(liang)(liang)監(jian)督(du)職能,在監(jian)督(du)過程(cheng)中,要嚴格按(an)照(zhao)有(you)關規定(ding)實施(shi)監(jian)督(du),及(ji)時(shi)對工程(cheng)建設(she)質量(liang)(liang)進(jin)行(xing)(xing)監(jian)督(du)和檢(jian)查(cha),參(can)與工程(cheng)驗收與質量(liang)(liang)評定(ding),嚴格控制工程(cheng)建設(she)質量(liang)(liang)。

五、結語

防洪(hong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程質量(liang)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)在防洪(hong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程建設(she)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)中是(shi)(shi)重點也是(shi)(shi)難點,質量(liang)控(kong)制措施(shi)得力與否,將直接(jie)影(ying)響工(gong)(gong)(gong)程建設(she)質量(liang)。因此,必須加大質量(liang)控(kong)制措施(shi),全面控(kong)制,加強管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li),為防洪(hong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程提供(gong)有利的管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)保障。

(作者單位:山東省防汛抗旱(han)機動(dong)總隊九(jiu)支(zhi)隊)

主要參考文獻:

[1]溫灶(zao)新.淺談防洪工程建設(she)的施工管理[J].科技資訊,2009.16.

篇4

目前，在推(tui)進“五水共治”的過(guo)程中，有兩(liang)個(ge)問題比較突出(chu)，制約了長效管理機制的建構。具體(ti)而言：

（一）治(zhi)水(shui)經驗的(de)特殊(shu)性與普遍性

縱觀(guan)目前“五(wu)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)共治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)管理(li)機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)建(jian)設，主要(yao)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)“治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)污(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)”方(fang)(fang)(fang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)取得(de)(de)了(le)(le)(le)較(jiao)大(da)成果(guo)，有效(xiao)推進(jin)了(le)(le)(le)污(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)整治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)與(yu)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)環(huan)境(jing)改善。這(zhe)方(fang)(fang)(fang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)典范是(shi)浙江(jiang)省浦(pu)江(jiang)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)環(huan)境(jing)整治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)上(shang)(shang)取得(de)(de)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)經驗(yan)和(he)成果(guo)。2013年以(yi)(yi)來(lai)(lai)，浦(pu)江(jiang)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)打(da)(da)響了(le)(le)(le)浦(pu)陽江(jiang)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)環(huan)境(jing)綜合整治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)攻堅戰，重點整治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)晶玻璃行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)，采取一(yi)系(xi)列強力措施予(yu)以(yi)(yi)推進(jin)：在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)輿論引(yin)導方(fang)(fang)(fang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)，對(dui)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)環(huan)境(jing)整治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)中(zhong)利(li)用網絡(luo)造(zao)(zao)謠中(zhong)傷(shang)、試圖(tu)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)混亂的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)行(xing)(xing)(xing)為(wei)(wei)進(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)了(le)(le)(le)打(da)(da)擊，查(cha)處了(le)(le)(le)2名“網絡(luo)紅人(ren)”并(bing)追究了(le)(le)(le)刑事(shi)責任；在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)組織基礎(chu)方(fang)(fang)(fang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)，嚴格落實“河長(chang)”負責制(zhi)，明確(que)“每個(ge)(ge)排污(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)口(kou)(kou)就是(shi)一(yi)個(ge)(ge)槍(qiang)口(kou)(kou)”，要(yao)求各“江(jiang)段長(chang)”限期消除(chu)劣五(wu)類(lei)支(zhi)流；在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)打(da)(da)擊力度方(fang)(fang)(fang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)，通過(guo)一(yi)年時(shi)(shi)間，關停(ting)、取締水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)晶加工戶(hu)14197家(jia)，拆(chai)除(chu)違章建(jian)筑347萬平方(fang)(fang)(fang)米，移(yi)送相關部(bu)門處理(li)533人(ren)；在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)建(jian)設方(fang)(fang)(fang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)，注重法治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)思維和(he)法律手段的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)運用，依法嚴厲(li)打(da)(da)擊水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)污(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)染犯罪行(xing)(xing)(xing)為(wei)(wei)，健(jian)全行(xing)(xing)(xing)政執(zhi)法與(yu)刑事(shi)司法銜(xian)接(jie)機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)，擴寬(kuan)行(xing)(xing)(xing)政執(zhi)法監督渠道，同(tong)時(shi)(shi)建(jian)立了(le)(le)(le)一(yi)系(xi)列工作(zuo)(zuo)機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)，包括主動介入工作(zuo)(zuo)機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)、部(bu)門聯動工作(zuo)(zuo)機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)、矛盾(dun)研判化(hua)解機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)，等等。在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)肯定(ding)浦(pu)江(jiang)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)污(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)理(li)方(fang)(fang)(fang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)成果(guo)和(he)經驗(yan)同(tong)時(shi)(shi)，也必須看(kan)(kan)到，之(zhi)所以(yi)(yi)浦(pu)江(jiang)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)能(neng)夠取得(de)(de)較(jiao)好的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)效(xiao)果(guo)，除(chu)了(le)(le)(le)上(shang)(shang)述經驗(yan)之(zhi)外(wai)，浦(pu)江(jiang)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)特(te)殊情況(kuang)也不(bu)(bu)可忽視。從(cong)產業(ye)(ye)(ye)結(jie)構上(shang)(shang)看(kan)(kan)，浦(pu)江(jiang)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)產業(ye)(ye)(ye)結(jie)構較(jiao)為(wei)(wei)單(dan)一(yi)，主要(yao)污(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)來(lai)(lai)源是(shi)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)晶行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)；從(cong)從(cong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)人(ren)員上(shang)(shang)看(kan)(kan)，從(cong)事(shi)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)晶行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)人(ren)員大(da)多數來(lai)(lai)自廣西、貴州等地(di)，本地(di)少(shao)(shao)較(jiao)少(shao)(shao)；從(cong)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)晶行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)本身而言，由于(yu)(yu)存在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)大(da)量(liang)無證(zheng)無照、廣散小的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)家(jia)庭(ting)作(zuo)(zuo)坊(fang)，對(dui)財政收入影響較(jiao)少(shao)(shao)；從(cong)社會反響上(shang)(shang)看(kan)(kan)，由于(yu)(yu)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)晶行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)長(chang)期排放污(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)，對(dui)當(dang)地(di)老(lao)百姓造(zao)(zao)成影響，從(cong)事(shi)這(zhe)一(yi)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)本地(di)人(ren)較(jiao)少(shao)(shao)，社會輿論普遍支(zhi)持政府進(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)嚴格執(zhi)法，社會穩定(ding)風險不(bu)(bu)大(da)。上(shang)(shang)述因(yin)素決定(ding)了(le)(le)(le)浦(pu)江(jiang)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)開展水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)環(huan)境(jing)整治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)內(nei)外(wai)部(bu)環(huan)境(jing)上(shang)(shang)較(jiao)為(wei)(wei)特(te)殊，能(neng)夠集中(zhong)精力圍繞“治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)污(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)”展開行(xing)(xing)(xing)動并(bing)快(kuai)速取得(de)(de)效(xiao)果(guo)。但是(shi)，其他地(di)方(fang)(fang)(fang)和(he)浦(pu)江(jiang)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)情況(kuang)有較(jiao)大(da)差別，面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)臨的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)問題(ti)更為(wei)(wei)復雜，不(bu)(bu)適宜也不(bu)(bu)可能(neng)照搬浦(pu)江(jiang)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)做(zuo)法。從(cong)國際上(shang)(shang)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)理(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)經驗(yan)看(kan)(kan)，治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)理(li)污(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)是(shi)一(yi)個(ge)(ge)長(chang)期的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)過(guo)程，不(bu)(bu)能(neng)為(wei)(wei)快(kuai)速取得(de)(de)效(xiao)果(guo)而采取急功急利(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)做(zuo)法，亟需處理(li)好特(te)殊性(xing)(xing)與(yu)普遍性(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)關系(xi)，在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)長(chang)效(xiao)管理(li)機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)建(jian)設上(shang)(shang)取得(de)(de)進(jin)展。

（二）“河長制”與長效制度安(an)排

在(zai)(zai)當前“五水(shui)共治(zhi)(zhi)”過程(cheng)中(zhong)，“河(he)(he)(he)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)制(zhi)(zhi)”是(shi)最(zui)為普遍推行(xing)(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)機制(zhi)(zhi)，即由(you)各級黨(dang)政(zheng)主(zhu)要負(fu)(fu)責人(ren)擔任(ren)“河(he)(he)(he)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)”，負(fu)(fu)責轄區內河(he)(he)(he)流治(zhi)(zhi)理(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)任(ren)務。應該看到(dao)，“河(he)(he)(he)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)制(zhi)(zhi)”能(neng)(neng)夠較快的(de)(de)(de)提升水(shui)環(huan)(huan)境質(zhi)(zhi)量，在(zai)(zai)治(zhi)(zhi)理(li)(li)(li)污(wu)水(shui)中(zhong)發(fa)揮著重(zhong)要作用(yong)，其(qi)優點(dian)在(zai)(zai)于(yu)(yu)：第一(yi)，“河(he)(he)(he)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)制(zhi)(zhi)”明確了(le)地(di)方(fang)(fang)黨(dang)政(zheng)領導對環(huan)(huan)境質(zhi)(zhi)量負(fu)(fu)總(zong)責的(de)(de)(de)要求；第二，“河(he)(he)(he)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)制(zhi)(zhi)”最(zui)大(da)程(cheng)度(du)(du)整合了(le)各級黨(dang)委(wei)政(zheng)府的(de)(de)(de)執行(xing)(xing)(xing)力，彌補了(le)“多頭治(zhi)(zhi)水(shui)”的(de)(de)(de)不(bu)(bu)(bu)足；第三，“河(he)(he)(he)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)制(zhi)(zhi)”提出了(le)轄區內河(he)(he)(he)道治(zhi)(zhi)理(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)總(zong)體(ti)(ti)目(mu)標和(he)(he)基本措施，并在(zai)(zai)行(xing)(xing)(xing)政(zheng)系統內形(xing)成競賽氛圍，促使相(xiang)關部門(men)提升水(shui)治(zhi)(zhi)理(li)(li)(li)水(shui)平。但是(shi)，本質(zhi)(zhi)上(shang)而(er)(er)言，“河(he)(he)(he)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)制(zhi)(zhi)”是(shi)一(yi)種(zhong)(zhong)類似突發(fa)危機應對式(shi)的(de)(de)(de)制(zhi)(zhi)度(du)(du)創(chuang)新，是(shi)一(yi)個有(you)(you)效(xiao)但非長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)效(xiao)的(de)(de)(de)制(zhi)(zhi)度(du)(du)安排(pai)，它的(de)(de)(de)出現(xian)并不(bu)(bu)(bu)能(neng)(neng)完全實(shi)現(xian)水(shui)污(wu)染標本兼治(zhi)(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)功能(neng)(neng)，反而(er)(er)還有(you)(you)可能(neng)(neng)阻礙(ai)和(he)(he)消解當下(xia)(xia)防治(zhi)(zhi)水(shui)污(wu)染正(zheng)規制(zhi)(zhi)度(du)(du)化的(de)(de)(de)努力。如(ru)下(xia)(xia)問題值得思(si)考：1.“河(he)(he)(he)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)制(zhi)(zhi)”的(de)(de)(de)產(chan)生(sheng)本身體(ti)(ti)現(xian)了(le)當前的(de)(de)(de)水(shui)資(zi)源管理(li)(li)(li)和(he)(he)保(bao)護機制(zhi)(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)弊端———管理(li)(li)(li)職(zhi)能(neng)(neng)過于(yu)(yu)分散，但“河(he)(he)(he)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)治(zhi)(zhi)污(wu)”某(mou)種(zhong)(zhong)程(cheng)度(du)(du)上(shang)體(ti)(ti)現(xian)了(le)制(zhi)(zhi)度(du)(du)的(de)(de)(de)非理(li)(li)(li)———畢竟“河(he)(he)(he)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)”們不(bu)(bu)(bu)是(shi)環(huan)(huan)保(bao)局(ju)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)或水(shui)利局(ju)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)，這(zhe)種(zhong)(zhong)制(zhi)(zhi)度(du)(du)創(chuang)新其(qi)實(shi)混淆了(le)原有(you)(you)的(de)(de)(de)行(xing)(xing)(xing)政(zheng)部門(men)職(zhi)能(neng)(neng)分工(gong)；2.“河(he)(he)(he)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)”不(bu)(bu)(bu)是(shi)目(mu)前行(xing)(xing)(xing)政(zheng)體(ti)(ti)制(zhi)(zhi)中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)正(zheng)式(shi)職(zhi)位，“河(he)(he)(he)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)”發(fa)揮作用(yong)主(zhu)要依(yi)靠其(qi)所(suo)能(neng)(neng)支配的(de)(de)(de)公(gong)共資(zi)源。顯(xian)然(ran)，不(bu)(bu)(bu)同級別、不(bu)(bu)(bu)同職(zhi)位的(de)(de)(de)行(xing)(xing)(xing)政(zheng)官員(yuan)在(zai)(zai)調(diao)動資(zi)源能(neng)(neng)力上(shang)必然(ran)存在(zai)(zai)著差異，這(zhe)實(shi)際(ji)上(shang)影響到(dao)河(he)(he)(he)流污(wu)染治(zhi)(zhi)理(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)不(bu)(bu)(bu)同效(xiao)果，也難免成為受到(dao)眾多“河(he)(he)(he)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)”們個人(ren)權(quan)(quan)力、地(di)位之爭(zheng)的(de)(de)(de)影響。3.由(you)地(di)方(fang)(fang)黨(dang)政(zheng)主(zhu)要負(fu)(fu)責人(ren)兼任(ren)“河(he)(he)(he)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)”容易造成權(quan)(quan)力自(zi)(zi)我決策、自(zi)(zi)我執行(xing)(xing)(xing)、自(zi)(zi)我監(jian)督的(de)(de)(de)狀況(kuang)。在(zai)(zai)各地(di)規定(ding)的(de)(de)(de)“河(he)(he)(he)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)問責制(zhi)(zhi)”中(zhong)，很多規定(ding)是(shi)由(you)當地(di)的(de)(de)(de)紀委(wei)、監(jian)察局(ju)及“河(he)(he)(he)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)”管理(li)(li)(li)工(gong)作領導小(xiao)組(zu)(zu)辦公(gong)室(shi)來監(jian)督和(he)(he)考核(he)“河(he)(he)(he)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)”的(de)(de)(de)工(gong)作，由(you)各職(zhi)能(neng)(neng)部門(men)組(zu)(zu)成的(de)(de)(de)驗收小(xiao)組(zu)(zu)來按照既定(ding)標準進行(xing)(xing)(xing)考評驗收，實(shi)際(ji)上(shang)是(shi)“下(xia)(xia)級監(jian)督上(shang)級”，其(qi)客觀性和(he)(he)可行(xing)(xing)(xing)性有(you)(you)待商榷。

二(er)、以戰略思維看待(dai)“五(wu)水(shui)共治”的(de)必要性

顯然，目(mu)(mu)前“五水共治(zhi)”在長效管(guan)理機制建設上存在不足，亟待加以(yi)完善。這(zhe)凸顯了從戰(zhan)(zhan)略(lve)(lve)思維(wei)看待“五水共治(zhi)”的(de)(de)(de)必要性(xing)。必須看到，作為省委省政(zheng)(zheng)府的(de)(de)(de)重大戰(zhan)(zhan)略(lve)(lve)舉措，“五水共治(zhi)”對各級政(zheng)(zheng)府的(de)(de)(de)綜(zong)合(he)能(neng)力(li)提(ti)出了更高的(de)(de)(de)要求(qiu)。這(zhe)就需(xu)要以(yi)戰(zhan)(zhan)略(lve)(lve)思維(wei)看待“五水共治(zhi)”，將管(guan)理活動與外部需(xu)求(qiu)緊密結合(he)，通過全面、系統的(de)(de)(de)戰(zhan)(zhan)略(lve)(lve)管(guan)理落實治(zhi)水與轉型(xing)的(de)(de)(de)總體性(xing)戰(zhan)(zhan)略(lve)(lve)目(mu)(mu)標。具體而言(yan)：

（一）戰(zhan)略管(guan)理與水資源綜合治(zhi)理

水(shui)(shui)(shui)是國家重要的(de)(de)(de)(de)戰(zhan)略資源(yuan)，是生(sheng)命之源(yuan)、生(sheng)產之要、生(sheng)態之基。從經濟(ji)社會(hui)可(ke)持續發展的(de)(de)(de)(de)角度看(kan)，“五水(shui)(shui)(shui)共治(zhi)(zhi)”的(de)(de)(de)(de)首(shou)要目標即在于(yu)統籌(chou)水(shui)(shui)(shui)的(de)(de)(de)(de)經濟(ji)、社會(hui)和生(sheng)態屬性，實現經濟(ji)效率、社會(hui)公平、生(sheng)態安全(quan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)綜合效益(yi)最(zui)大化。必須(xu)看(kan)到，污(wu)(wu)水(shui)(shui)(shui)、洪(hong)水(shui)(shui)(shui)、澇水(shui)(shui)(shui)、供水(shui)(shui)(shui)、節水(shui)(shui)(shui)作為(wei)(wei)五個“手(shou)(shou)指”，各自(zi)具有(you)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)對獨立(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)功能與屬性，但都是基于(yu)水(shui)(shui)(shui)資源(yuan)綜合效益(yi)這(zhe)個“手(shou)(shou)掌”上。同時，受多(duo)種自(zi)然與社會(hui)因素的(de)(de)(de)(de)影響，“五水(shui)(shui)(shui)”之間(jian)具有(you)復雜的(de)(de)(de)(de)聯(lian)系，形(xing)成多(duo)個相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)互耦合的(de)(de)(de)(de)場域(yu)，較(jiao)為(wei)(wei)常見的(de)(de)(de)(de)有(you)“污(wu)(wu)水(shui)(shui)(shui)—供水(shui)(shui)(shui)”、“污(wu)(wu)水(shui)(shui)(shui)—洪(hong)水(shui)(shui)(shui)”、“洪(hong)水(shui)(shui)(shui)—澇水(shui)(shui)(shui)”、“供水(shui)(shui)(shui)—節水(shui)(shui)(shui)”等，這(zhe)就需(xu)要從戰(zhan)略的(de)(de)(de)(de)視角出發，在治(zhi)(zhi)理過程中予以統籌(chou)考慮(lv)、長遠規劃，絕(jue)不能人(ren)為(wei)(wei)忽視或(huo)者割裂治(zhi)(zhi)水(shui)(shui)(shui)各領域(yu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)互聯(lian)系。

（二）戰略管理與經濟社會(hui)轉型發展

近年(nian)來，人(ren)民(min)群眾的(de)(de)(de)(de)環(huan)(huan)保意識(shi)不斷增(zeng)強(qiang)、對生活(huo)質量(liang)要求不斷提(ti)高(gao)；水(shui)已不僅(jin)僅(jin)是一種(zhong)自然與(yu)環(huan)(huan)境要素(su)，更是全(quan)社(she)會(hui)廣泛關注的(de)(de)(de)(de)公(gong)共(gong)議題。從推(tui)動(dong)全(quan)面深化改革的(de)(de)(de)(de)高(gao)度看，“五(wu)水(shui)共(gong)治(zhi)”的(de)(de)(de)(de)最終目(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)是以治(zhi)水(shui)為突破口(kou)，促進轉(zhuan)型，推(tui)動(dong)升(sheng)級。因(yin)此(ci)，不能狹隘的(de)(de)(de)(de)從“項目(mu)管(guan)理”角度理解(jie)“五(wu)水(shui)共(gong)治(zhi)”，將(jiang)其(qi)僅(jin)僅(jin)視(shi)為建設一批涉水(shui)工程，而應(ying)該從戰略的(de)(de)(de)(de)高(gao)度出(chu)發，通(tong)過治(zhi)水(shui)實(shi)現經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)發展與(yu)環(huan)(huan)境保護的(de)(de)(de)(de)互(hu)促共(gong)贏、國家(jia)與(yu)社(she)會(hui)的(de)(de)(de)(de)互(hu)構合作、政(zheng)府(fu)與(yu)市(shi)場的(de)(de)(de)(de)互(hu)動(dong)協調，推(tui)進經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)、社(she)會(hui)、政(zheng)府(fu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)全(quan)面轉(zhuan)型。“五(wu)水(shui)共(gong)治(zhi)”戰略管(guan)理的(de)(de)(de)(de)基本特征在于：多元主(zhu)體(ti)，即在政(zheng)府(fu)主(zhu)導下(xia)，最大限(xian)度地實(shi)現多主(zhu)體(ti)的(de)(de)(de)(de)共(gong)同參與(yu)，包(bao)括企業、社(she)會(hui)組織、社(she)區(qu)、公(gong)民(min)個人(ren)等(deng)；多方(fang)聯(lian)動(dong)，即在各(ge)級政(zheng)府(fu)之(zhi)間、政(zheng)府(fu)相關部門之(zhi)間形成(cheng)高(gao)度聯(lian)動(dong)；多種(zhong)方(fang)式，即綜合運用多種(zhong)政(zheng)策(ce)工具(ju)(ju)(ju)，包(bao)括強(qiang)制性工具(ju)(ju)(ju)、激勵性工具(ju)(ju)(ju)、信息性工具(ju)(ju)(ju)、服(fu)務性工具(ju)(ju)(ju)等(deng)；多重責(ze)(ze)任(ren)，即明確相關主(zhu)體(ti)的(de)(de)(de)(de)責(ze)(ze)任(ren)與(yu)義(yi)務，包(bao)括行(xing)政(zheng)責(ze)(ze)任(ren)、財(cai)政(zheng)責(ze)(ze)任(ren)、法律責(ze)(ze)任(ren)等(deng)。

（三）“五水(shui)共治”的戰略(lve)管理(li)體系

“五(wu)水(shui)共(gong)(gong)(gong)治”重(zhong)在行動、貴在落實、成(cheng)在持久。應(ying)當清醒地認識到，治水(shui)是(shi)一項長(chang)期(qi)、復雜(za)、艱巨的(de)(de)(de)系統(tong)性(xing)(xing)工程；在重(zhong)點推進的(de)(de)(de)同時，還必須形(xing)成(cheng)“五(wu)水(shui)共(gong)(gong)(gong)治”長(chang)效機(ji)制(zhi)，將“運動式治理(li)(li)”提升為(wei)(wei)“制(zhi)度式治理(li)(li)”，從“非(fei)常態(tai)管(guan)理(li)(li)”轉變為(wei)(wei)“常態(tai)管(guan)理(li)(li)”。將戰(zhan)略管(guan)理(li)(li)引(yin)入(ru)“五(wu)水(shui)共(gong)(gong)(gong)治”，就為(wei)(wei)長(chang)效機(ji)制(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)建(jian)立(li)提供(gong)了理(li)(li)論(lun)指(zhi)導(dao)與(yu)基(ji)本(ben)框架。總體(ti)而言，“五(wu)水(shui)共(gong)(gong)(gong)治”的(de)(de)(de)戰(zhan)略管(guan)理(li)(li)基(ji)本(ben)框架由應(ying)急(ji)管(guan)理(li)(li)、危機(ji)管(guan)理(li)(li)、風險管(guan)理(li)(li)組成(cheng)，三者(zhe)之間通過“風險———應(ying)急(ji)———危機(ji)”的(de)(de)(de)演化范式相互聯系、相互轉化，共(gong)(gong)(gong)同構成(cheng)“三位一體(ti)”的(de)(de)(de)五(wu)水(shui)共(gong)(gong)(gong)治戰(zhan)略管(guan)理(li)(li)體(ti)系。以這一戰(zhan)略管(guan)理(li)(li)體(ti)系為(wei)(wei)基(ji)礎(chu)，充分借(jie)鑒(jian)吸收(shou)實踐中的(de)(de)(de)先進經驗，深入(ru)總結暴(bao)露出的(de)(de)(de)問題，建(jian)立(li)系統(tong)性(xing)(xing)、主動性(xing)(xing)、持續(xu)性(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)“五(wu)水(shui)共(gong)(gong)(gong)治”長(chang)效機(ji)制(zhi)，為(wei)(wei)子孫后代永(yong)享綠水(shui)青山提供(gong)制(zhi)度保(bao)障。

三、“五水共(gong)治”戰(zhan)略管理的基本框架

以上述“三(san)位一體(ti)”的(de)五(wu)水共治戰(zhan)略管理體(ti)系(xi)為基礎，可(ke)以更(geng)加(jia)全面和綜合視角看待“五(wu)水共治”，推進相應長(chang)效管理機制的(de)建設。具體(ti)而言：

（一）“五(wu)水共(gong)治”的(de)應(ying)急管理之維

水(shui)(shui)是(shi)最為基本(ben)的(de)(de)環境要素，涉水(shui)(shui)領(ling)(ling)(ling)域(yu)(yu)發(fa)生(sheng)的(de)(de)突(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)發(fa)事(shi)(shi)件(jian)直接(jie)影(ying)響人民(min)群眾的(de)(de)正(zheng)常生(sheng)活，具(ju)有(you)影(ying)響力(li)強(qiang)、涉及面(mian)廣、持(chi)續性大(da)的(de)(de)特(te)征(zheng)。近年(nian)來，浙江各地在“洪(hong)水(shui)(shui)”、“澇(lao)(lao)水(shui)(shui)”、“供水(shui)(shui)”領(ling)(ling)(ling)域(yu)(yu)的(de)(de)突(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)發(fa)事(shi)(shi)件(jian)頻(pin)發(fa)，在2013年(nian)，就有(you)由超強(qiang)臺風和強(qiang)降雨(yu)造成(cheng)的(de)(de)大(da)澇(lao)(lao)和大(da)水(shui)(shui)、杭州市自(zi)來水(shui)(shui)異味事(shi)(shi)件(jian)等多起重大(da)事(shi)(shi)件(jian)發(fa)生(sheng)。從世(shi)界范圍(wei)看，在氣(qi)候(hou)變化背(bei)景下(xia)，我國(guo)氣(qi)候(hou)災(zai)害(hai)風險(xian)不斷增強(qiang)，極(ji)端氣(qi)候(hou)事(shi)(shi)件(jian)的(de)(de)發(fa)生(sheng)頻(pin)率增加、強(qiang)度增大(da)，有(you)效(xiao)管(guan)(guan)理(li)極(ji)端氣(qi)候(hou)與災(zai)害(hai)風險(xian)是(shi)政府工(gong)作(zuo)的(de)(de)當務之急(ji)(ji)。因此(ci)，通過應(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)管(guan)(guan)理(li)有(you)效(xiao)應(ying)(ying)(ying)對突(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)發(fa)事(shi)(shi)件(jian)，是(shi)“五水(shui)(shui)共(gong)治(zhi)”戰略(lve)管(guan)(guan)理(li)體(ti)系(xi)的(de)(de)首要任務。在國(guo)家層(ceng)面(mian)上(shang)(shang)，目前我國(guo)已經建立以“一(yi)案(an)三制(zhi)(zhi)”（即(ji)應(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)預案(an)、應(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)體(ti)制(zhi)(zhi)、應(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)機制(zhi)(zhi)、應(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)法制(zhi)(zhi)）為框架的(de)(de)應(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)管(guan)(guan)理(li)體(ti)系(xi)，明確了突(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)發(fa)事(shi)(shi)件(jian)分(fen)級分(fen)類(lei)(lei)(lei)的(de)(de)處(chu)置要求。根據《突(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)發(fa)事(shi)(shi)件(jian)應(ying)(ying)(ying)對法》和《國(guo)家突(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)發(fa)公共(gong)事(shi)(shi)件(jian)總體(ti)應(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)預案(an)》，突(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)發(fa)事(shi)(shi)件(jian)分(fen)為自(zi)然災(zai)害(hai)、事(shi)(shi)故災(zai)難、公共(gong)衛(wei)生(sheng)事(shi)(shi)件(jian)和社會安(an)全事(shi)(shi)件(jian)共(gong)四類(lei)(lei)(lei)。從性質上(shang)(shang)分(fen)析，“洪(hong)水(shui)(shui)”、“澇(lao)(lao)水(shui)(shui)”領(ling)(ling)(ling)域(yu)(yu)的(de)(de)突(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)發(fa)事(shi)(shi)件(jian)應(ying)(ying)(ying)歸(gui)入(ru)“自(zi)然災(zai)害(hai)”類(lei)(lei)(lei)別，“供水(shui)(shui)”領(ling)(ling)(ling)域(yu)(yu)的(de)(de)突(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)發(fa)事(shi)(shi)件(jian)應(ying)(ying)(ying)歸(gui)入(ru)“事(shi)(shi)故災(zai)難”類(lei)(lei)(lei)別。就浙江的(de)(de)應(ying)(ying)(ying)對措施(shi)而言(yan)，在《浙江省突(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)發(fa)公共(gong)事(shi)(shi)件(jian)總體(ti)應(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)預案(an)》指引下(xia)：

1.針對自然災(zai)害類突(tu)發事件

省(sheng)政府(fu)了(le)七個專項應(ying)急(ji)(ji)預(yu)(yu)案(an)，其(qi)中與(yu)“洪(hong)水(shui)”、“澇水(shui)”相關的(de)有：《浙江省(sheng)防(fang)(fang)汛防(fang)(fang)旱應(ying)急(ji)(ji)預(yu)(yu)案(an)》、《浙江省(sheng)氣象災(zai)害應(ying)急(ji)(ji)預(yu)(yu)案(an)》、《浙江省(sheng)自然(ran)災(zai)害救助應(ying)急(ji)(ji)預(yu)(yu)案(an)》，各地市(shi)、縣也逐級(ji)了(le)相應(ying)預(yu)(yu)案(an)；同時(shi)，易受氣候災(zai)害影響的(de)沿海地方基本制定了(le)城市(shi)防(fang)(fang)洪(hong)、防(fang)(fang)臺、排澇的(de)應(ying)急(ji)(ji)預(yu)(yu)案(an)，如《溫州市(shi)城市(shi)防(fang)(fang)臺防(fang)(fang)洪(hong)應(ying)急(ji)(ji)預(yu)(yu)案(an)》、《寧波(bo)市(shi)防(fang)(fang)汛防(fang)(fang)臺應(ying)急(ji)(ji)預(yu)(yu)案(an)》等(deng)。

2.針對(dui)事(shi)故災難類突(tu)發(fa)事(shi)件

省政府了(le)(le)十四(si)個(ge)專項應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)預案(an)，其中與“供水(shui)”相(xiang)關的(de)有(you)：《浙(zhe)(zhe)江(jiang)省環境(jing)污染和生態破壞突發(fa)公共事(shi)件應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)預案(an)》、《浙(zhe)(zhe)江(jiang)省城(cheng)市供水(shui)、燃氣突發(fa)事(shi)故應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)預案(an)》，各地(di)市、縣也逐級了(le)(le)相(xiang)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)預案(an)。總(zong)體(ti)而言，目前(qian)浙(zhe)(zhe)江(jiang)的(de)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)管(guan)理(li)體(ti)系(xi)已建(jian)成，應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)預案(an)基(ji)本實(shi)現了(le)(le)“橫向(xiang)到(dao)(dao)邊，縱(zong)向(xiang)到(dao)(dao)底”，能(neng)夠(gou)對“洪水(shui)”、“澇水(shui)”、“供水(shui)”領域的(de)突發(fa)事(shi)件作出及時(shi)(shi)響應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)與有(you)效應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)對。同時(shi)(shi)，省政府針對應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)管(guan)理(li)實(shi)踐中出現的(de)新問題，及時(shi)(shi)修訂(ding)相(xiang)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)的(de)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)預案(an)，不斷完(wan)善應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)管(guan)理(li)體(ti)系(xi)，這些都為(wei)“五(wu)水(shui)共治”的(de)戰略管(guan)理(li)提(ti)供了(le)(le)良好的(de)基(ji)礎(chu)。

（二）“五(wu)水(shui)共治(zhi)”的危機管理之維

危(wei)機(ji)(ji)是對社(she)(she)會(hui)結構(gou)及其核心(xin)價值造成的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)嚴(yan)重威脅。危(wei)機(ji)(ji)不能簡單等(deng)同(tong)于突發(fa)事(shi)件(jian)(jian)；以(yi)(yi)“控(kong)制事(shi)態”為中心(xin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)應急(ji)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)無法適應具(ju)有(you)(you)公共(gong)(gong)(gong)性(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)危(wei)機(ji)(ji)問(wen)題，在(zai)(zai)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)主(zhu)體、管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)手段、管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)目的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)上均存在(zai)(zai)缺(que)陷。一(yi)個(ge)顯著(zhu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)特征是，應急(ji)預(yu)(yu)案(an)具(ju)有(you)(you)預(yu)(yu)測與控(kong)制功(gong)能，其作為應急(ji)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)核心(xin)，本(ben)意在(zai)(zai)于消減不確定性(xing)。但(dan)研(yan)究表明，應急(ji)預(yu)(yu)案(an)及其編制過程本(ben)身則帶有(you)(you)悖(bei)論(lun)性(xing)，反而可能加大應急(ji)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)制度風險，具(ju)體表現(xian)為預(yu)(yu)案(an)“復(fu)制化”、“碎片化”、“空想化”等(deng)問(wen)題。實(shi)踐(jian)中，一(yi)些地方(fang)已(yi)經表現(xian)出(chu)(chu)“應急(ji)失(shi)靈(ling)”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)現(xian)象。可見，單純應急(ji)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)并不足以(yi)(yi)有(you)(you)效應對復(fu)雜的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)公共(gong)(gong)(gong)危(wei)機(ji)(ji)；在(zai)(zai)應急(ji)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)基礎上，還(huan)需要(yao)發(fa)展以(yi)(yi)“改善公眾(zhong)認知”為中心(xin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)危(wei)機(ji)(ji)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)。近年來，隨著(zhu)人(ren)民群眾(zhong)對環(huan)境質量的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)要(yao)求日益提(ti)高，水(shui)污染問(wen)題成為社(she)(she)會(hui)廣(guang)泛關(guan)注的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)公共(gong)(gong)(gong)議題，對政府(fu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)公共(gong)(gong)(gong)事(shi)務管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)提(ti)出(chu)(chu)了更高的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)要(yao)求，具(ju)代(dai)表性(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)是浙江多地環(huan)保局長被“邀(yao)請”下河游泳(yong)事(shi)件(jian)(jian)，以(yi)(yi)及因(yin)臺風引發(fa)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)“水(shui)淹余姚”事(shi)件(jian)(jian)，都暴露出(chu)(chu)行政管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)、社(she)(she)會(hui)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)深(shen)層次結構(gou)性(xing)問(wen)題。因(yin)此，通過危(wei)機(ji)(ji)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)有(you)(you)力(li)化解社(she)(she)會(hui)矛(mao)盾，變危(wei)機(ji)(ji)為轉機(ji)(ji)，是“五水(shui)共(gong)(gong)(gong)治”戰略管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)體系(xi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)中心(xin)任(ren)務。危(wei)機(ji)(ji)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)是一(yi)種整合性(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)、持續的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)、動(dong)態的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)過程。形成“五水(shui)共(gong)(gong)(gong)治”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)危(wei)機(ji)(ji)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)體系(xi)，需要(yao)重視并完善如(ru)下三類機(ji)(ji)制：

1．政府協同與危(wei)機決策(ce)機制。

政府(fu)是應(ying)對公(gong)共危機(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)核心主(zhu)(zhu)體(ti)，在(zai)危機(ji)管理(li)(li)中無疑(yi)應(ying)發揮主(zhu)(zhu)導(dao)作用。公(gong)共危機(ji)治(zhi)(zhi)理(li)(li)也對政府(fu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)決策(ce)(ce)能(neng)力(li)(li)提出了全面性(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)要求，具體(ti)包括：決策(ce)(ce)環(huan)境評(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)能(neng)力(li)(li)、決策(ce)(ce)信息獲取與(yu)處理(li)(li)能(neng)力(li)(li)、決策(ce)(ce)資源動員整合能(neng)力(li)(li)、決策(ce)(ce)制(zhi)定(ding)能(neng)力(li)(li)、決策(ce)(ce)評(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)與(yu)自我修正能(neng)力(li)(li)。由于水(shui)(shui)資源天然具有流(liu)動性(xing)與(yu)跨區域(yu)性(xing)，同時(shi)公(gong)共危機(ji)具有共振(zhen)性(xing)和非常規(gui)性(xing)，這就(jiu)要求政府(fu)各部分之(zhi)(zhi)間(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)聯系(xi)是多(duo)向度、交織性(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)，而不能(neng)是傳(chuan)統(tong)科層制(zhi)中自上而下的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)直線控制(zhi)。因此(ci)，應(ying)打破行政區劃(hua)與(yu)部門(men)劃(hua)分的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)限制(zhi)，建立(li)“五水(shui)(shui)共治(zhi)(zhi)”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)上下級政府(fu)之(zhi)(zhi)間(jian)、地方政府(fu)與(yu)地方政府(fu)之(zhi)(zhi)間(jian)、政府(fu)多(duo)部門(men)之(zhi)(zhi)間(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)協同治(zhi)(zhi)理(li)(li)機(ji)制(zhi)，將“五水(shui)(shui)共治(zhi)(zhi)”領導(dao)小組辦公(gong)室作為協調政府(fu)及(ji)部門(men)間(jian)關系(xi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)中心機(ji)構(gou)，避免治(zhi)(zhi)水(shui)(shui)中出現“地方主(zhu)(zhu)義”與(yu)“部門(men)主(zhu)(zhu)義”傾向，確保決策(ce)(ce)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)快捷有效(xiao)。

2．多元(yuan)合作與公眾參與機制。

現代公(gong)共(gong)(gong)事(shi)務管(guan)理(li)的(de)(de)最(zui)大特征在(zai)(zai)于政(zheng)府與(yu)社(she)會(hui)主(zhu)體(ti)(ti)(ti)之間的(de)(de)合(he)作(zuo)(zuo)，包(bao)括基(ji)層社(she)區組(zu)織、非營利組(zu)織、企業、新聞媒體(ti)(ti)(ti)、公(gong)民個(ge)人等(deng)。在(zai)(zai)危(wei)(wei)機(ji)管(guan)理(li)中，政(zheng)府并非治(zhi)(zhi)理(li)公(gong)共(gong)(gong)事(shi)務的(de)(de)唯(wei)一主(zhu)體(ti)(ti)(ti)，而是(shi)應(ying)(ying)最(zui)大限度(du)的(de)(de)包(bao)含非政(zheng)府組(zu)織、企業、家庭、公(gong)民個(ge)人在(zai)(zai)內的(de)(de)所有社(she)會(hui)組(zu)織和行為者。在(zai)(zai)目標上，通過(guo)多元(yuan)(yuan)主(zhu)體(ti)(ti)(ti)間的(de)(de)合(he)作(zuo)(zuo)與(yu)參(can)與(yu)，形(xing)成(cheng)(cheng)全(quan)主(zhu)體(ti)(ti)(ti)、全(quan)要素、全(quan)過(guo)程(cheng)應(ying)(ying)對公(gong)共(gong)(gong)危(wei)(wei)機(ji)的(de)(de)長期合(he)作(zuo)(zuo)網絡和制(zhi)(zhi)度(du)平臺。從某種意(yi)義上說，多元(yuan)(yuan)社(she)會(hui)主(zhu)體(ti)(ti)(ti)在(zai)(zai)政(zheng)府指導下(xia)的(de)(de)充分(fen)參(can)與(yu)和積(ji)極(ji)互(hu)動并形(xing)成(cheng)(cheng)制(zhi)(zhi)度(du)化的(de)(de)合(he)作(zuo)(zuo)網絡，是(shi)“五(wu)水(shui)共(gong)(gong)治(zhi)(zhi)”取得(de)成(cheng)(cheng)效(xiao)的(de)(de)基(ji)本(ben)途徑(jing)。因此，應(ying)(ying)強調社(she)會(hui)組(zu)織、企業和公(gong)民的(de)(de)主(zhu)體(ti)(ti)(ti)地位(wei)，建立多元(yuan)(yuan)主(zhu)體(ti)(ti)(ti)之間平等(deng)交流、協商互(hu)動的(de)(de)合(he)作(zuo)(zuo)機(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)，讓社(she)會(hui)各(ge)類主(zhu)體(ti)(ti)(ti)能夠積(ji)極(ji)主(zhu)動參(can)與(yu)涉水(shui)事(shi)務的(de)(de)管(guan)理(li)全(quan)過(guo)程(cheng)，真(zhen)正形(xing)成(cheng)(cheng)全(quan)社(she)會(hui)共(gong)(gong)同參(can)與(yu)的(de)(de)“五(wu)水(shui)共(gong)(gong)治(zhi)(zhi)”工作(zuo)(zuo)格(ge)局。

3．社會資本培育(yu)機制(zhi)。

社(she)(she)(she)(she)會(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)資(zi)(zi)本是(shi)(shi)以信(xin)任(ren)為(wei)核(he)心的(de)(de)價(jia)(jia)值(zhi)觀與規(gui)范集合(he)。正如學者(zhe)所言(yan)，社(she)(she)(she)(she)會(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)資(zi)(zi)本是(shi)(shi)指社(she)(she)(she)(she)會(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)組(zu)織的(de)(de)特征，信(xin)任(ren)是(shi)(shi)其中(zhong)至關(guan)重要的(de)(de)方面(mian)，能(neng)夠(gou)通(tong)(tong)過促進合(he)作行為(wei)來提高社(she)(she)(she)(she)會(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)的(de)(de)效率。社(she)(she)(she)(she)會(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)資(zi)(zi)本的(de)(de)有效運(yun)作，能(neng)避免(mian)國家權力單向度運(yun)作的(de)(de)缺(que)陷，從深層次(ci)推動社(she)(she)(she)(she)會(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)行動和解決矛盾。由此，在(zai)一定(ding)程度上說(shuo)，社(she)(she)(she)(she)會(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)資(zi)(zi)本的(de)(de)形(xing)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)與集聚狀況是(shi)(shi)“五水共治”能(neng)否真正實(shi)現的(de)(de)關(guan)鍵所在(zai)。形(xing)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)社(she)(she)(she)(she)會(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)資(zi)(zi)本培(pei)育機制(zhi)，應從兩個(ge)方面(mian)入手(shou)：在(zai)制(zhi)度層面(mian)，政府(fu)應重視自發并保障(zhang)形(xing)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)社(she)(she)(she)(she)會(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)資(zi)(zi)本的(de)(de)社(she)(she)(she)(she)會(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)條件，通(tong)(tong)過信(xin)息公開(kai)、關(guan)注(zhu)弱勢群體、加強(qiang)執法(fa)等方式(shi)加以促進；在(zai)價(jia)(jia)值(zhi)層面(mian)，政府(fu)要給予多元(yuan)主體平等的(de)(de)關(guan)心與尊(zun)重，培(pei)養并生(sheng)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)“普遍信(xin)任(ren)”，引導形(xing)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)有利于“五水共治”的(de)(de)共同價(jia)(jia)值(zhi)觀。

（三）“五水共治”的風(feng)險管理之維

突(tu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)事(shi)(shi)件(jian)與(yu)(yu)(yu)危(wei)(wei)(wei)機是(shi)(shi)一(yi)種(zhong)(zhong)已經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)事(shi)(shi)實(shi)(shi)，其根源(yuan)于事(shi)(shi)前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)存(cun)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，即(ji)(ji)(ji)可(ke)以引(yin)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)大(da)規模損(sun)失的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)不(bu)(bu)(bu)確定(ding)(ding)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)。必(bi)須(xu)看到，“風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)社(she)會(hui)(hui)(hui)”已經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)成(cheng)為(wei)現代社(she)會(hui)(hui)(hui)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)基(ji)本特征(zheng)，全(quan)球氣(qi)(qi)候(hou)(hou)變化(hua)(hua)、極端氣(qi)(qi)候(hou)(hou)頻繁(fan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生等(deng)(deng)外在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)因(yin)素(su)也正(zheng)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)不(bu)(bu)(bu)斷提(ti)(ti)高風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)復雜性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)。2013年(nian)(nian)，我省(sheng)(sheng)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)夏天遭遇(yu)歷(li)史罕見高溫干旱，秋天又遭遇(yu)百年(nian)(nian)不(bu)(bu)(bu)遇(yu)強降雨(yu)，已經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)暴露出(chu)認(ren)識(shi)(shi)不(bu)(bu)(bu)到位、缺(que)乏預防(fang)措(cuo)(cuo)施(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)問(wen)題(ti)(ti)，凸顯應對災(zai)害(hai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)社(she)會(hui)(hui)(hui)脆弱性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)問(wen)題(ti)(ti)。此(ci)(ci)時(shi)，就有必(bi)要破(po)除“天災(zai)/人(ren)禍”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)二元對立(li)思維(wei)，從(cong)更(geng)基(ji)礎(chu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)層面對自然與(yu)(yu)(yu)社(she)會(hui)(hui)(hui)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)進(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)綜合預防(fang)，實(shi)(shi)現危(wei)(wei)(wei)機管(guan)(guan)理(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)“關口(kou)前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)移”，減(jian)少突(tu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)事(shi)(shi)件(jian)與(yu)(yu)(yu)危(wei)(wei)(wei)機發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)可(ke)能性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)與(yu)(yu)(yu)損(sun)失，促進(jin)(jin)(jin)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)社(she)會(hui)(hui)(hui)平(ping)穩、健康、持續發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)。因(yin)此(ci)(ci)，通過(guo)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)有序推進(jin)(jin)(jin)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)、社(she)會(hui)(hui)(hui)與(yu)(yu)(yu)政(zheng)府(fu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)全(quan)面轉(zhuan)型，是(shi)(shi)“五(wu)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)共(gong)(gong)治(zhi)”戰略(lve)管(guan)(guan)理(li)體(ti)系的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)最終(zhong)目(mu)(mu)標。一(yi)般而言(yan)，綜合性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)包(bao)括四個主要環(huan)(huan)節(jie)(jie)：1.風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)別，即(ji)(ji)(ji)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)事(shi)(shi)件(jian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)，運(yun)用(yong)各(ge)(ge)(ge)種(zhong)(zhong)方法(fa)和(he)手(shou)段識(shi)(shi)別所面臨的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)各(ge)(ge)(ge)種(zhong)(zhong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，包(bao)括危(wei)(wei)(wei)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)源(yuan)、發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生區(qu)域、種(zhong)(zhong)類、主要危(wei)(wei)(wei)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)子等(deng)(deng)；2.風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)分析，即(ji)(ji)(ji)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)別的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)基(ji)礎(chu)上(shang)(shang)，對可(ke)能出(chu)現的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)不(bu)(bu)(bu)良(liang)后(hou)果進(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)分析，以確定(ding)(ding)該事(shi)(shi)件(jian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)概(gai)率及(ji)其損(sun)失程度；3.風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)，即(ji)(ji)(ji)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)分析的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)基(ji)礎(chu)上(shang)(shang)對各(ge)(ge)(ge)種(zhong)(zhong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)進(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)比較(jiao)，確立(li)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)優先順序，決定(ding)(ding)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)可(ke)接受(shou)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)；4.風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)決策(ce)，即(ji)(ji)(ji)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)基(ji)礎(chu)上(shang)(shang)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)定(ding)(ding)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)應對方案，采取有針對性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)綜合性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)預防(fang)措(cuo)(cuo)施(shi)，減(jian)輕風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)產生的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)響及(ji)造(zao)成(cheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)不(bu)(bu)(bu)利后(hou)果。因(yin)此(ci)(ci)，在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)污(wu)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)、洪水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)、澇水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)、供(gong)(gong)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)、節(jie)(jie)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)五(wu)大(da)領域，都應當(dang)建(jian)(jian)立(li)涵蓋“風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)別—風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)分析—風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)—風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)決策(ce)”全(quan)過(guo)程的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)體(ti)系。從(cong)目(mu)(mu)前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)情況(kuang)看，一(yi)些(xie)領域已經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)初(chu)步建(jian)(jian)立(li)起風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)框(kuang)架(jia)，為(wei)“五(wu)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)共(gong)(gong)治(zhi)”風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)體(ti)系提(ti)(ti)供(gong)(gong)了(le)(le)基(ji)礎(chu)，但(dan)也存(cun)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)一(yi)些(xie)需要改進(jin)(jin)(jin)之處：1.在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)環(huan)(huan)境(jing)保(bao)護領域，針對化(hua)(hua)學物質的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)應用(yong)、工(gong)程項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)興建(jian)(jian)和(he)運(yun)轉(zhuan)、各(ge)(ge)(ge)種(zhong)(zhong)開(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)行(xing)(xing)(xing)為(wei)引(yin)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)環(huan)(huan)境(jing)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，環(huan)(huan)保(bao)部門已經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)全(quan)面開(kai)展(zhan)(zhan)了(le)(le)環(huan)(huan)境(jing)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)價(jia)（ERA）工(gong)作(zuo)，制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)定(ding)(ding)了(le)(le)《建(jian)(jian)設(she)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)環(huan)(huan)境(jing)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)價(jia)技術(shu)導則》等(deng)(deng)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業標準，為(wei)調(diao)整產業結(jie)構(gou)、保(bao)護水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)源(yuan)地提(ti)(ti)供(gong)(gong)了(le)(le)決策(ce)依據，構(gou)成(cheng)了(le)(le)“污(wu)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)”、“供(gong)(gong)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)”領域風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)基(ji)礎(chu)工(gong)作(zuo)，目(mu)(mu)前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)需要強化(hua)(hua)規章(zhang)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)度建(jian)(jian)設(she)，加(jia)大(da)執(zhi)法(fa)力度，協調(diao)不(bu)(bu)(bu)同政(zheng)府(fu)部門之間(jian)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)環(huan)(huan)境(jing)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)治(zhi)理(li)上(shang)(shang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)府(fu)際關系，將風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)措(cuo)(cuo)施(shi)落到實(shi)(shi)處；2.在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)防(fang)災(zai)減(jian)災(zai)領域，各(ge)(ge)(ge)地氣(qi)(qi)象部門已經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)開(kai)展(zhan)(zhan)了(le)(le)氣(qi)(qi)象災(zai)害(hai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)區(qu)劃(hua)工(gong)作(zuo)，利用(yong)多種(zhong)(zhong)災(zai)害(hai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)方法(fa)和(he)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)模型，進(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)氣(qi)(qi)象災(zai)害(hai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)并制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)定(ding)(ding)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)區(qu)劃(hua)。浙(zhe)(zhe)江(jiang)省(sheng)(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)氣(qi)(qi)象災(zai)害(hai)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)區(qu)劃(hua)已在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)2009年(nian)(nian)3月向(xiang)社(she)會(hui)(hui)(hui)公布，為(wei)“洪水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)”、“澇水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)”領域的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)提(ti)(ti)供(gong)(gong)了(le)(le)基(ji)本框(kuang)架(jia)，目(mu)(mu)前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)需要細化(hua)(hua)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)區(qu)劃(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)范(fan)圍并加(jia)強后(hou)續的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)決策(ce)工(gong)作(zuo)，真正(zheng)實(shi)(shi)現風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)與(yu)(yu)(yu)政(zheng)策(ce)過(guo)程的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)“對接”；3.在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)社(she)會(hui)(hui)(hui)管(guan)(guan)理(li)領域，由于社(she)會(hui)(hui)(hui)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)不(bu)(bu)(bu)同于技術(shu)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，是(shi)(shi)決策(ce)主體(ti)與(yu)(yu)(yu)利益相關方之間(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)訴求沖突(tu)所產生的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)，需要建(jian)(jian)立(li)專門的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)與(yu)(yu)(yu)管(guan)(guan)理(li)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)度框(kuang)架(jia)，即(ji)(ji)(ji)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)大(da)決策(ce)社(she)會(hui)(hui)(hui)穩定(ding)(ding)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)度。從(cong)實(shi)(shi)踐情況(kuang)看，針對與(yu)(yu)(yu)人(ren)民(min)群眾利益密切相關的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)大(da)決策(ce)、重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)要政(zheng)策(ce)、重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)大(da)工(gong)程建(jian)(jian)設(she)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)等(deng)(deng)，浙(zhe)(zhe)江(jiang)省(sheng)(sheng)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)全(quan)國范(fan)圍內較(jiao)早實(shi)(shi)施(shi)了(le)(le)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)大(da)事(shi)(shi)項(xiang)(xiang)社(she)會(hui)(hui)(hui)穩定(ding)(ding)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)機制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)，制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)定(ding)(ding)了(le)(le)《浙(zhe)(zhe)江(jiang)省(sheng)(sheng)縣級重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)大(da)事(shi)(shi)項(xiang)(xiang)社(she)會(hui)(hui)(hui)穩定(ding)(ding)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)辦法(fa)》等(deng)(deng)政(zheng)策(ce)文件(jian)，對重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)大(da)事(shi)(shi)項(xiang)(xiang)開(kai)展(zhan)(zhan)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)效益和(he)社(she)會(hui)(hui)(hui)穩定(ding)(ding)“雙(shuang)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)”，切實(shi)(shi)預防(fang)減(jian)少實(shi)(shi)施(shi)中的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)社(she)會(hui)(hui)(hui)穩定(ding)(ding)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。這為(wei)“五(wu)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)共(gong)(gong)治(zhi)”中重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)要政(zheng)策(ce)、重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)工(gong)程項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)理(li)工(gong)作(zuo)提(ti)(ti)供(gong)(gong)了(le)(le)堅實(shi)(shi)基(ji)礎(chu)。同時(shi)也必(bi)須(xu)看到，目(mu)(mu)前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)社(she)會(hui)(hui)(hui)穩定(ding)(ding)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)機制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)尚存(cun)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)一(yi)定(ding)(ding)不(bu)(bu)(bu)足，需要在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)評(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)主體(ti)、內容、方法(fa)上(shang)(shang)進(jin)(jin)(jin)一(yi)步完(wan)善(shan)，真正(zheng)實(shi)(shi)現從(cong)“被動保(bao)穩定(ding)(ding)”向(xiang)“主動創穩定(ding)(ding)”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)轉(zhuan)變。

四、結語

篇5

關鍵詞 ： 水(shui)利(li)工程造價風險管(guan)理模糊層次分(fen)析法

中(zhong)圖分類號：TV文獻標識(shi)碼： A

水利工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)的(de)(de)(de)建設具有投(tou)資(zi)規模大(da)、施(shi)工(gong)(gong)復雜(za)、工(gong)(gong)期長(chang)、不(bu)可(ke)預(yu)見因素(su)復雜(za)繁多等特點，因而在建設過(guo)程(cheng)中不(bu)可(ke)避免地面臨各種(zhong)各樣的(de)(de)(de)風(feng)險。風(feng)險因素(su)的(de)(de)(de)存(cun)在不(bu)僅(jin)會影響工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)建設的(de)(de)(de)順(shun)利進行(xing)，而且可(ke)能導致造(zao)價(jia)投(tou)資(zi)的(de)(de)(de)大(da)幅增加，甚(shen)至(zhi)造(zao)成巨額經(jing)濟損失。因此，研究(jiu)影響水利工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)造(zao)價(jia)的(de)(de)(de)風(feng)險因素(su)顯得尤為(wei)重(zhong)要。

 本文以研究(jiu)影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)水(shui)利工(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)項目造(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)的(de)風險因素為基礎，分析各種(zhong)風險因素對水(shui)利工(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)的(de)影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)度，建立(li)水(shui)利工(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)造(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)風險評(ping)估指標，并運用模糊層次分析法構建水(shui)利工(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)造(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)風險評(ping)估模型(xing)，隨(sui)之依據該模型(xing)計算出評(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)結果[4]，最后(hou)結合現實情況使相關(guan)方作出合理化決(jue)策(ce)與管(guan)理，在工(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)實施(shi)前或實施(shi)中，及(ji)時并有效地(di)采取(qu)措施(shi)，進而(er)有利于達到水(shui)利工(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)造(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)管(guan)理的(de)目標

一、 影(ying)響水(shui)利工程造價(jia)的風險識別(bie)

影響(xiang)水利(li)工(gong)程造(zao)(zao)價(jia)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)因(yin)素(su)(su)多，涉(she)及(ji)范(fan)圍廣，通過風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)調查、信息分(fen)析、專家(jia)咨詢等方法[1]，找(zhao)出(chu)影響(xiang)水利(li)工(gong)程造(zao)(zao)價(jia)的(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)素(su)(su)，分(fen)析關(guan)鍵風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)要素(su)(su)。本文結(jie)合目前水利(li)工(gong)程的(de)建設情況，將自然(ran)條件風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)、政策風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)、市場風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)、業主(zhu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)、競爭對手風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)、自身風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)、技(ji)術(shu)及(ji)資源等風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)因(yin)素(su)(su)作為對水利(li)工(gong)程造(zao)(zao)價(jia)評(ping)價(jia)的(de)關(guan)鍵指(zhi)標。

二、 風險(xian)(xian)管理及(ji)風險(xian)(xian)分析

風(feng)(feng)險(xian)管理是指經(jing)濟單(dan)位(wei)對可能(neng)遇到(dao)的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)進行預測、識別(bie)、評估、分析，并在(zai)此基礎上有效地處(chu)置風(feng)(feng)險(xian)，以最低的(de)(de)成本實現(xian)最大的(de)(de)安全保障(zhang)的(de)(de)科學(xue)管理方法(fa)。目前對風(feng)(feng)險(xian)控制的(de)(de)措施主要有風(feng)(feng)險(xian)回避、風(feng)(feng)險(xian)降低、風(feng)(feng)險(xian)抵(di)消、風(feng)(feng)險(xian)分離、風(feng)(feng)險(xian)分散、風(feng)(feng)險(xian)轉移(yi)、風(feng)(feng)險(xian)自留(liu)等(deng)措施。

三、 構建水利工程(cheng)造價(jia)風險評價(jia)模(mo)型

3、1建立水利工程造價(jia)風險因素(su)指標體系

表1水利工程造價風險因素指標(biao)體系(xi)表

水利(li)工(gong)程項目造價風險因素U

自(zi)然條件風(feng)(feng)(feng)險U1 政策風(feng)(feng)(feng)險U2 市場風(feng)(feng)(feng)險U3 業(ye)主風(feng)(feng)(feng)險U4 競爭對手(shou)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險U5 自(zi)身風(feng)(feng)(feng)險U6 技術及資源風(feng)(feng)(feng)險U7

地質(zhi)條(tiao)件 氣候條(tiao)件 政策(ce)穩定(ding)性 法制健(jian)全(quan)性 物價(jia)穩定(ding)性 匯率穩定(ding)性 稅收穩定(ding)性 資(zi)金來源 業主信譽 業主管理能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li) 相互(hu)關系 施(shi)工經驗(yan) 技術水平(ping)(ping) 墊資(zi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li) 目標利(li)潤(run)率 目標利(li)潤(run) 管理水平(ping)(ping) 資(zi)金實力(li) 市場份(fen)額(e) 施(shi)工能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li) 技術人員 材料(liao)設備 施(shi)工難度 圖紙(zhi)設計 生產效(xiao)率

3、2劃分水利工(gong)程(cheng)造價風險等級

評(ping)語集，根(gen)據評(ping)價的(de)精度確定m的(de)取值，一般(ban)m取5～9。研究中取，即，分(fen)別表示工程風(feng)險的(de)大小程度為低(di)風(feng)險、較低(di)風(feng)險、中等風(feng)險、較高風(feng)險、高風(feng)險。

3、3建(jian)立模糊(hu)層次分析模型

（1）風(feng)險等級的劃分并取(qu)值。可用(yong)V來表示：

（1）

為(wei)風險等級或不同的取值范圍。

（2）因素集的建立。本文建立三(san)級因素集可(ke)用U來表(biao)示：

（2）

是各級評價指標，n為評價指標的個數。

（3）構造由到的模糊關系矩陣，將每一(yi)位專家對每個指(zhi)標(biao)進(jin)行評(ping)價(jia)打分(fen)：

（3）

為第個(ge)指標相應的(de)權(quan)重；為把第個(ge)指標同歸于第等級風(feng)險的(de)專(zhuan)家人(ren)數(shu)；為專(zhuan)家的(de)總數(shu)。

進而得出(chu)模(mo)糊關(guan)系(xi)矩陣(zhen)：

（4）

（4）權(quan)重集的確(que)定。確(que)定權(quan)重的方(fang)法(fa)有層次分(fen)析(xi)(xi)法(fa)、主(zhu)成分(fen)分(fen)析(xi)(xi)法(fa)、熵權(quan)法(fa)、三(san)角模糊(hu)數法(fa)和變異系數法(fa)等，本文擬采用層次分(fen)析(xi)(xi)法(fa)來確(que)定各指標的權(quan)重，其權(quan)重集定義(yi)如下(xia)：

（5）

其中(zhong)，分別為相對應的評(ping)價因(yin)素

（5）結合層次分析法(fa)構建(jian)模糊綜(zong)合評價模型：

（6）

其中(zhong)，為目標(biao)層評價指標(biao)對于(yu)評語(yu)集的(de)隸屬向量

（7）

（6）確(que)定綜合評價結果

（8）

由上式計(ji)算(suan)得出具體(ti)代(dai)數(shu)值，進而判斷出該項目所處的風險等級(ji)。

四、 水利(li)工程項(xiang)目造價風(feng)險評估實例(li)分析

本文以安徽(hui)(hui)省(sheng)(sheng)某水(shui)庫(ku)(ku)為(wei)例，該水(shui)庫(ku)(ku)為(wei)安徽(hui)(hui)省(sheng)(sheng)重(zhong)點中型水(shui)庫(ku)(ku)，以灌溉、防洪功能(neng)為(wei)主，兼有養殖(zhi)等綜(zong)合利(li)用的中型水(shui)庫(ku)(ku)，水(shui)庫(ku)(ku)流域面積44.4，灌溉效益6.17萬(wan)畝(mu)，水(shui)庫(ku)(ku)養殖(zhi)水(shui)面約3053畝(mu)。由于水(shui)利(li)工程的復雜性，因此運用科(ke)學(xue)的方法研究確定其造價所處的綜(zong)合風險等級顯得尤為(wei)重(zhong)要[2]。

4、1確定風險等級

，指標等級介于兩(liang)級之間時取(qu)值分(fen)別為(wei)2,4,6,8。

4、2確(que)定模糊(hu)關系矩陣(zhen)

以自然條件為例，來(lai)計(ji)算模糊關系矩(ju)陣(zhen)（參(can)考資料見(jian)表2）

表2模(mo)糊(hu)關系矩陣原(yuan)始資料

子因素層(ceng) 低風(feng)(feng)險 較(jiao)(jiao)低風(feng)(feng)險 中等風(feng)(feng)險 較(jiao)(jiao)高(gao)風(feng)(feng)險 高(gao)風(feng)(feng)險

地質條件 2 4 3 1 0

氣候條件 1 3 3 2 1

注：數字表(biao)示(shi)歸(gui)為每一類風險的(de)專家人(ren)數，共10名專家

由（3）式計算得出子因素評價矩陣

本文(wen)限(xian)于篇幅(fu)不再贅(zhui)述，同理可分(fen)別求出。

4、3確定各指(zhi)標(biao)權重(zhong)

運用層次分析法(fa)確定因(yin)素層相(xiang)對于目標層的(de)權(quan)重，其(qi)具體計(ji)算(suan)方法(fa)可參考文獻[1]，為所(suo)求的(de)特征向量(liang)，其(qi)中(zhong)分別為的(de)相(xiang)對權(quan)重，經計(ji)算(suan)可得：

， ，

，

，

經驗證均通過了(le)一致(zhi)性(xing)檢驗，符合(he)要求[3]。

4、4模糊(hu)層次綜合評價

根據所建立的模糊層次(ci)分析模型(xing)，由(you)（6）式(shi)計算(suan)綜合(he)評(ping)價(jia)的結果：

由(you)上述所建立的(de)綜合評價模型及(ji)所計(ji)(ji)算的(de)基礎數(shu)據，計(ji)(ji)算出目標層對評語集V的(de)隸屬矩陣為：

4、5綜合評價(jia)結(jie)果

由模糊綜合評(ping)(ping)價(jia)結果得出目標(biao)層評(ping)(ping)價(jia)指標(biao)U對于評(ping)(ping)語集V的隸屬向量C，根據（8）式(shi)計算可得：

根(gen)據分(fen)析計算(suan)結果，可知該水利(li)工程(cheng)項目造(zao)價(jia)處于(yu)較低風險(xian)，但(dan)已接(jie)近(jin)中等風險(xian)，對于(yu)該風險(xian)可采取風險(xian)自(zi)留(liu)或(huo)預防(fang)風險(xian)等措施應對。由上述(shu)計算(suan)可知，市場因素(su)和競爭對手因素(su)為影響水利(li)工程(cheng)造(zao)價(jia)的兩個主要因素(su)。

五、結語

本(ben)文(wen)應(ying)(ying)用模糊綜合(he)評(ping)價和層次分析(xi)法相(xiang)結(jie)(jie)合(he)的(de)(de)方法對水利(li)工程造(zao)價進行(xing)了整體的(de)(de)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)價，并(bing)得(de)(de)出了相(xiang)應(ying)(ying)結(jie)(jie)論。通過定性分析(xi)和定量分析(xi)相(xiang)結(jie)(jie)合(he)，進而減少主(zhu)觀(guan)因(yin)素(su)。在(zai)本(ben)文(wen)計算(suan)中(zhong)得(de)(de)出該項目的(de)(de)造(zao)價風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)處(chu)于(yu)較低(di)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)范圍內(nei)但并(bing)不能說(shuo)明(ming)水林工程造(zao)價風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)處(chu)于(yu)絕對的(de)(de)低(di)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)范圍內(nei)，因(yin)為隨機風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)是客觀(guan)存(cun)在(zai)的(de)(de)。在(zai)此情(qing)況(kuang)下(xia)，各(ge)利(li)益(yi)(yi)相(xiang)關(guan)方從實際(ji)出發，應(ying)(ying)用科學的(de)(de)預測方法并(bing)適時(shi)根據(ju)所處(chu)的(de)(de)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)等級(ji)采取(qu)相(xiang)應(ying)(ying)的(de)(de)措施，才能保證以最小的(de)(de)成本(ben)獲得(de)(de)最大的(de)(de)利(li)益(yi)(yi)。

參考文獻：

[1] 謝季堅，劉(liu)承平(ping).模糊數學(xue)方法及其應用[M].武(wu)漢：華(hua)中科技大(da)學(xue)出版(ban)社，2000.

[2] 沈繼紅，施久玉.數學建(jian)模[M].哈(ha)爾濱(bin)：哈(ha)爾濱(bin)工程大學出(chu)版(ban)社.

篇6

1.1前置性文件

根據(ju)目前項(xiang)目立(li)(li)項(xiang)、決(jue)策階段需(xu)開(kai)展的(de)(de)工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)和(he)標(biao)準(zhun)化工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)流程(cheng)(cheng)［2］，需(xu)在可(ke)(ke)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)研(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)究(jiu)階段的(de)(de)初(chu)測、鐵路(lu)(lu)建(jian)設(she)方(fang)案(an)(an)研(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)究(jiu)論(lun)證(zheng)、可(ke)(ke)研(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)報(bao)(bao)(bao)告(gao)(送審(shen)稿)編(bian)制(zhi)、補(bu)充初(chu)測等過程(cheng)(cheng)中(zhong)完(wan)成的(de)(de)前置(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)文(wen)件(jian)(jian)。這些前置(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)文(wen)件(jian)(jian)由建(jian)設(she)單(dan)(dan)位委(wei)托具有(you)資(zi)質的(de)(de)設(she)計(ji)、咨詢和(he)評估單(dan)(dan)位，在項(xiang)目可(ke)(ke)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)研(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)究(jiu)報(bao)(bao)(bao)告(gao)編(bian)制(zhi)的(de)(de)設(she)計(ji)單(dan)(dan)位進(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)可(ke)(ke)研(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)階段工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)期(qi)間，同步(bu)開(kai)展外業調查、資(zi)料收集、意見征求和(he)方(fang)案(an)(an)評價等工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)，按照相應文(wen)件(jian)(jian)編(bian)制(zhi)辦法(fa)編(bian)制(zhi)專題報(bao)(bao)(bao)告(gao)，經建(jian)設(she)單(dan)(dan)位報(bao)(bao)(bao)送各相關(guan)主(zhu)管部(bu)門進(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)審(shen)批(pi)，并將審(shen)批(pi)意見提交可(ke)(ke)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)研(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)究(jiu)報(bao)(bao)(bao)告(gao)編(bian)制(zhi)的(de)(de)單(dan)(dan)位執行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)、修改(gai)可(ke)(ke)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)研(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)究(jiu)報(bao)(bao)(bao)告(gao)，建(jian)設(she)單(dan)(dan)位在對修改(gai)可(ke)(ke)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)研(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)究(jiu)報(bao)(bao)(bao)告(gao)預審(shen)后向(xiang)(xiang)上級(ji)主(zhu)管部(bu)門和(he)國(guo)家(jia)發展和(he)改(gai)革委(wei)上報(bao)(bao)(bao)正式(shi)可(ke)(ke)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)研(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)究(jiu)報(bao)(bao)(bao)告(gao)。關(guan)于前置(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)文(wen)件(jian)(jian)對鐵路(lu)(lu)建(jian)設(she)方(fang)案(an)(an)不可(ke)(ke)回避(bi)的(de)(de)強(qiang)制(zhi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)作(zuo)(zuo)用，文(wen)獻［3-4］均作(zuo)(zuo)為(wei)強(qiang)制(zhi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)條文(wen)要(yao)(yao)求予以強(qiang)調。例如(ru)文(wen)獻［4］第1.0.9條“高速鐵路(lu)(lu)設(she)計(ji)應執行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)國(guo)家(jia)節(jie)(jie)約(yue)能源、節(jie)(jie)約(yue)用水(shui)、節(jie)(jie)約(yue)材料、節(jie)(jie)省(sheng)土(tu)地、保(bao)護環境等有(you)關(guan)法(fa)律、法(fa)規。”明確了(le)環保(bao)選(xuan)線、生態保(bao)護和(he)節(jie)(jie)約(yue)能源等內(nei)容(rong)的(de)(de)重要(yao)(yao)設(she)計(ji)原(yuan)則。需(xu)要(yao)(yao)說明的(de)(de)是，環境影(ying)響、水(shui)土(tu)保(bao)持、節(jie)(jie)約(yue)能源在項(xiang)目的(de)(de)可(ke)(ke)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)研(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)究(jiu)階段同時也納入到可(ke)(ke)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)研(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)究(jiu)報(bao)(bao)(bao)告(gao)的(de)(de)文(wen)件(jian)(jian)組成部(bu)分(fen)(fen)中(zhong)，2012年以來(lai)社會穩定風險分(fen)(fen)析也作(zuo)(zuo)為(wei)可(ke)(ke)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)研(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)究(jiu)報(bao)(bao)(bao)告(gao)的(de)(de)重要(yao)(yao)內(nei)容(rong)設(she)獨立(li)(li)篇章［2］。而前置(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)文(wen)件(jian)(jian)的(de)(de)編(bian)制(zhi)應以可(ke)(ke)研(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)報(bao)(bao)(bao)告(gao)中(zhong)的(de)(de)有(you)關(guan)內(nei)容(rong)，如(ru)線路(lu)(lu)走向(xiang)(xiang)、運輸組織、主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)技術標(biao)準(zhun)、主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)措施、站點布置(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)、工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)數量、工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)投資(zi)等為(wei)評估依(yi)據(ju)，進(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)專題論(lun)證(zheng)，對可(ke)(ke)研(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)(yan)的(de)(de)建(jian)設(she)方(fang)案(an)(an)提出修正意見，也為(wei)項(xiang)目的(de)(de)初(chu)步(bu)設(she)計(ji)工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)提出指導性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)原(yuan)則。

1.2前置性文件的主要內(nei)容(rong)

1.2.1環境影響(xiang)報告

環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)報(bao)告(gao)主要(yao)根(gen)據文獻［5］進行編制。該報(bao)告(gao)書通(tong)過對(dui)建設(she)項目和(he)自(zi)然環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)、社(she)會(hui)(hui)經(jing)濟(ji)環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)、環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)質量現狀的(de)分(fen)析(xi)，以及與(yu)沿線城市規(gui)劃相容性的(de)分(fen)析(xi)，從生態環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)、聲環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)、振動環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)、電磁環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)、水環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)、大氣環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)、固體廢物(wu)環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)、社(she)會(hui)(hui)經(jing)濟(ji)環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)等方面進行全面論述，提出(chu)污染(ran)物(wu)總量控制目標，環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)保(bao)護措施(shi)、環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)管理和(he)環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)監測(ce)計劃，根(gen)據現場公眾參與(yu)調(diao)查結果(guo)統(tong)計分(fen)析(xi)提出(chu)落實建議，并對(dui)環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)風險進行評(ping)價和(he)提出(chu)應急預案。

1.2.2水土保持方(fang)案報告

文獻［6］作為水(shui)(shui)土(tu)(tu)(tu)保(bao)持方(fang)(fang)案報告(gao)的(de)主要依據(ju)，在報告(gao)編制(zhi)過(guo)程中側重(zhong)于對(dui)(dui)工程水(shui)(shui)土(tu)(tu)(tu)流失防治(zhi)(zhi)方(fang)(fang)面的(de)評(ping)估。通過(guo)對(dui)(dui)項目建(jian)設(she)方(fang)(fang)案的(de)基本分(fen)析(xi)，對(dui)(dui)所在地的(de)水(shui)(shui)土(tu)(tu)(tu)流失重(zhong)點防治(zhi)(zhi)區進(jin)行劃(hua)分(fen)，明(ming)確(que)防治(zhi)(zhi)責任范(fan)圍，對(dui)(dui)項目水(shui)(shui)土(tu)(tu)(tu)流失進(jin)行預(yu)測，根據(ju)預(yu)測結果提(ti)出水(shui)(shui)土(tu)(tu)(tu)保(bao)持措施(shi)及總體布局、水(shui)(shui)土(tu)(tu)(tu)保(bao)持監測內容和方(fang)(fang)法、水(shui)(shui)土(tu)(tu)(tu)保(bao)持方(fang)(fang)案實施(shi)的(de)保(bao)證(zheng)措施(shi)，進(jin)行水(shui)(shui)土(tu)(tu)(tu)保(bao)持生態(tai)效益分(fen)析(xi)，并對(dui)(dui)水(shui)(shui)土(tu)(tu)(tu)保(bao)持設(she)施(shi)后續管理提(ti)出建(jian)議(yi)。

1.2.3土地利用(yong)實施影響評估報告

該報告依(yi)據(ju)土地(di)法和文(wen)獻［7］進行(xing)編制。主要內容為(wei)對建設(she)方(fang)案在耕地(di)保有量、基本農田保護(hu)、占用(yong)耕地(di)指標、補充耕地(di)目標的(de)(de)(de)影響(xiang)等方(fang)面進行(xing)分(fen)析，對建設(she)方(fang)案對土地(di)節約(yue)、集約(yue)利用(yong)進行(xing)評估(gu)，以及對城鎮(zhen)規劃和布局的(de)(de)(de)影響(xiang)、生(sheng)態環境、社(she)會經濟效益的(de)(de)(de)影響(xiang)進行(xing)評估(gu)，對項目的(de)(de)(de)可操作(zuo)性進行(xing)分(fen)析并(bing)提出建議(yi)。

1.2.4防(fang)洪影響評價(jia)報告

我國(guo)目前有黃河(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)、長江(jiang)、遼河(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)、海(hai)河(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)、淮(huai)河(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)、松花(hua)江(jiang)、珠江(jiang)等七(qi)大(da)水(shui)系(xi)，各大(da)水(shui)系(xi)均由水(shui)利(li)部直屬的(de)相(xiang)應水(shui)利(li)委員(yuan)會(管理局)進(jin)行(xing)(xing)管理，而分(fen)布(bu)于各省區的(de)分(fen)支水(shui)系(xi)則由水(shui)利(li)廳及下屬單(dan)(dan)位(wei)進(jin)行(xing)(xing)管理。因此根(gen)據(ju)文獻［8］編制的(de)防(fang)洪(hong)(hong)影響評(ping)價報(bao)告的(de)審(shen)批也視所評(ping)價的(de)河(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)流，由歸屬管理單(dan)(dan)位(wei)組織評(ping)審(shen)。根(gen)據(ju)文獻［8］要(yao)求(qiu)，該報(bao)告主要(yao)對項目涉及的(de)跨(kua)河(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)工(gong)程(包括(kuo)建設規模、結構形(xing)式、防(fang)洪(hong)(hong)標準(zhun)等)及建設項目所在(zai)河(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)段(duan)的(de)河(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)道基本情(qing)(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(含河(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)道概況(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)、水(shui)文、泥沙(sha)、氣(qi)象特(te)征、河(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)道地質情(qing)(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)、現(xian)有防(fang)洪(hong)(hong)標準(zhun)、洪(hong)(hong)峰水(shui)位(wei)等)進(jin)行(xing)(xing)論述，并對河(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)道演(yan)變情(qing)(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)和趨(qu)勢(shi)進(jin)行(xing)(xing)分(fen)析(xi)(xi)，通過水(shui)文分(fen)析(xi)(xi)計(ji)(ji)算、雍水(shui)分(fen)析(xi)(xi)計(ji)(ji)算、沖刷與淤積分(fen)析(xi)(xi)計(ji)(ji)算、河(he)(he)(he)(he)(he)勢(shi)影響分(fen)析(xi)(xi)計(ji)(ji)算、排澇影響分(fen)析(xi)(xi)計(ji)(ji)算進(jin)行(xing)(xing)防(fang)洪(hong)(hong)綜合評(ping)價，提出防(fang)治與補(bu)救(jiu)措施。

1.2.5沿線(xian)壓覆礦產資源評(ping)估報告(gao)

該報(bao)告的(de)主要編制依據為文獻(xian)［9］。該報(bao)告通過對建設方(fang)案的(de)工程概況、用地(di)范圍(wei)的(de)分析(xi)，以及(ji)對用地(di)范圍(wei)內地(di)質(zhi)概況(地(di)層、構造等(deng))闡述，分析(xi)礦(kuang)產資源(yuan)分布情(qing)況(種類(lei)、儲量、質(zhi)量等(deng))、開采情(qing)況和礦(kuang)權設置情(qing)況，對無法(fa)避免壓覆礦(kuang)產的(de)理由和依據進(jin)行詳細說明，以及(ji)對壓覆的(de)礦(kuang)產資源(yuan)進(jin)行必要的(de)經濟分析(xi)，對存在的(de)問題提(ti)出建議。

1.2.6建設用地(di)地(di)質(zhi)災害危險性評估報告

文獻(xian)［10］用于(yu)指導地災(zai)評(ping)估報(bao)告的(de)(de)編制。該報(bao)告通過對(dui)(dui)評(ping)估范(fan)圍和級(ji)別(bie)的(de)(de)界定，經(jing)過對(dui)(dui)地質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)環境條件(氣象、水文、地質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)構造、地層巖性(xing)等)的(de)(de)評(ping)估，闡(chan)述地質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)災(zai)害(hai)的(de)(de)類別(bie)和特征(zheng)，對(dui)(dui)現狀地質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)災(zai)害(hai)進(jin)行分(fen)析，預測項目(mu)可(ke)能引發、加(jia)劇、遭受(shou)的(de)(de)地質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)災(zai)害(hai)，提出綜合防(fang)治措施和危險性(xing)分(fen)區等建議。

1.2.7工(gong)程場地(di)地(di)震安全性評估報(bao)告

該報(bao)告主要針對建設(she)方案的(de)控制工(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)和(he)特殊工(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)進行(xing)地(di)(di)震(zhen)安全(quan)性(xing)(xing)評估。根據文獻［11］規(gui)定(ding)，該報(bao)告主要對項目的(de)地(di)(di)震(zhen)活動(dong)性(xing)(xing)、地(di)(di)震(zhen)地(di)(di)質(zhi)背景(jing)、地(di)(di)震(zhen)烈度及地(di)(di)震(zhen)動(dong)衰減關系(xi)進行(xing)分析，對場(chang)地(di)(di)地(di)(di)震(zhen)危(wei)險性(xing)(xing)和(he)發生(sheng)概率進行(xing)評價，確定(ding)場(chang)地(di)(di)地(di)(di)震(zhen)動(dong)參數，就(jiu)地(di)(di)震(zhen)環境、工(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)地(di)(di)質(zhi)條件、地(di)(di)震(zhen)安全(quan)性(xing)(xing)、地(di)(di)震(zhen)災害等方面提出建議。

1.2.8建設項目(mu)選址報告

根據文(wen)獻［12］的(de)(de)要(yao)求，建(jian)設(she)(she)(she)項(xiang)目(mu)選(xuan)址(zhi)報告主要(yao)包含(han)建(jian)設(she)(she)(she)項(xiang)目(mu)的(de)(de)擬(ni)選(xuan)位置、擬(ni)用地(di)范圍(wei)、擬(ni)建(jian)設(she)(she)(she)規(gui)(gui)(gui)模等內容。報告編制需從項(xiang)目(mu)選(xuan)址(zhi)的(de)(de)地(di)理位置和(he)周(zhou)邊環境及(ji)要(yao)求，交通(tong)運輸(shu)條件(jian)及(ji)要(yao)求，主要(yao)選(xuan)址(zhi)方案，符合城(cheng)市(shi)(shi)規(gui)(gui)(gui)劃的(de)(de)論證(zheng)，與(yu)(yu)市(shi)(shi)政、防災、能源、交通(tong)、通(tong)訊(xun)規(gui)(gui)(gui)劃的(de)(de)銜(xian)接和(he)協調(diao)，與(yu)(yu)城(cheng)市(shi)(shi)公共設(she)(she)(she)施(shi)和(he)生活(huo)設(she)(she)(she)施(shi)配套的(de)(de)銜(xian)接和(he)協調(diao)、與(yu)(yu)規(gui)(gui)(gui)劃的(de)(de)協調(diao)等方面展開論述，并對沿線規(gui)(gui)(gui)劃、城(cheng)建(jian)部門提出(chu)的(de)(de)意見(jian)進行(xing)答復(fu)。

1.2.9節約能源報告

根據(ju)文獻(xian)［13］及(ji)(ji)鐵路總公司關于建(jian)設項(xiang)目節(jie)(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)評(ping)估工(gong)作管理暫行辦(ban)法(fa)，節(jie)(jie)約能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)評(ping)估報告編制(zhi)的主要內容為評(ping)估范圍和內容，建(jian)設項(xiang)目用(yong)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)情況(kuang)(kuang)(含用(yong)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)系統及(ji)(ji)設備選擇，能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)消耗種(zhong)類、數量及(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)使用(yong)分(fen)布(bu)情況(kuang)(kuang))，能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)供應(ying)情況(kuang)(kuang)分(fen)析(xi)(含能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)供應(ying)條件及(ji)(ji)消費(fei)(fei)情況(kuang)(kuang)，能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)消費(fei)(fei)對區域能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)消費(fei)(fei)的影響)，項(xiang)目建(jian)設方案節(jie)(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)評(ping)估，能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)消耗及(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)效(xiao)水(shui)平評(ping)估，節(jie)(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)的技術、管理、效(xiao)果、經(jing)濟性評(ping)估等，并對存在問(wen)題提出建(jian)議。

1.2.10跨越航(hang)道通(tong)航(hang)論證報(bao)告(gao)

由(you)文(wen)獻(xian)［14］可知，該報告著(zhu)重于對跨(kua)越通(tong)航河流的(de)(de)工(gong)程在安(an)全影(ying)響方(fang)面的(de)(de)評價。主要(yao)內容有涉(she)(she)(she)水(shui)(shui)工(gong)程的(de)(de)合理性、可行(xing)性分(fen)析，通(tong)航環境分(fen)析(含氣(qi)象、水(shui)(shui)文(wen)、地質地貌分(fen)析)，涉(she)(she)(she)水(shui)(shui)工(gong)程對通(tong)航安(an)全的(de)(de)影(ying)響分(fen)析，涉(she)(she)(she)水(shui)(shui)工(gong)程對交通(tong)組織的(de)(de)影(ying)響分(fen)析，涉(she)(she)(she)水(shui)(shui)活動水(shui)(shui)域通(tong)航風險分(fen)析，并對存(cun)在的(de)(de)問題提出(chu)建議和安(an)全保障措施。

1.2.11社會(hui)穩定風險(xian)評(ping)估報告

根據近年來建(jian)設環境(jing)變化情況，國(guo)家發(fa)改委要求編(bian)制社(she)會(hui)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)風險分析報告，以(yi)實現科學、民主(zhu)、依(yi)法決策，預防和化解社(she)會(hui)矛盾的目(mu)(mu)(mu)的。該(gai)報告編(bian)制的主(zhu)要內容為(wei)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)在規劃(hua)選址方面可(ke)能引發(fa)的社(she)會(hui)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)問(wen)(wen)題(ti)，項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)在實施(shi)前涉及(ji)土(tu)地(di)征用可(ke)能引發(fa)的社(she)會(hui)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)問(wen)(wen)題(ti)，項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)在實施(shi)前涉及(ji)拆遷安置(zhi)、環境(jing)污(wu)染可(ke)能引發(fa)的社(she)會(hui)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)問(wen)(wen)題(ti)，項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)在建(jian)設中涉及(ji)勞(lao)資(zi)糾(jiu)紛、文明施(shi)工可(ke)能引發(fa)的社(she)會(hui)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)突(tu)出問(wen)(wen)題(ti)，項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)其他涉及(ji)群眾(zhong)利益可(ke)能引發(fa)的社(she)會(hui)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)突(tu)出問(wen)(wen)題(ti)。通過以(yi)上(shang)問(wen)(wen)題(ti)分析，確定(ding)(ding)社(she)會(hui)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)風險等級，提出防范措施(shi)和化解方案的建(jian)議。

1.3前置性文件的影響程(cheng)度

影(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)程(cheng)(cheng)度(du)的(de)(de)評(ping)價(jia)是從(cong)國家政策(ce)(ce)、社會(hui)影(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)、行業要求(qiu)(qiu)、技(ji)(ji)(ji)術難(nan)度(du)、投資(zi)控(kong)制(zhi)等(deng)(deng)方(fang)面綜合論(lun)證(zheng)后得出的(de)(de)。本文(wen)將環(huan)境影(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)、水土保(bao)持方(fang)案、社會(hui)穩(wen)定(ding)風險(xian)評(ping)估作(zuo)為“影(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)程(cheng)(cheng)度(du)很大(da)”來考(kao)慮，主要觀點為這3個(ge)前(qian)置(zhi)(zhi)性(xing)(xing)文(wen)件無(wu)(wu)論(lun)從(cong)國家各項(xiang)政策(ce)(ce)規定(ding)還(huan)是在(zai)對(dui)(dui)(dui)社會(hui)生產生活(huo)方(fang)面，無(wu)(wu)論(lun)對(dui)(dui)(dui)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術的(de)(de)要求(qiu)(qiu)還(huan)是投資(zi)額(e)度(du)的(de)(de)影(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)，均(jun)起到(dao)(dao)一(yi)票(piao)否(fou)決的(de)(de)作(zuo)用，直(zhi)接(jie)影(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)到(dao)(dao)項(xiang)目(mu)立項(xiang)和(he)決策(ce)(ce)。將土地利用、防洪影(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)、壓覆礦(kuang)產、地質災害(hai)等(deng)(deng)4個(ge)前(qian)置(zhi)(zhi)性(xing)(xing)文(wen)件作(zuo)為“影(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)程(cheng)(cheng)度(du)大(da)”來考(kao)慮，主要是其對(dui)(dui)(dui)社會(hui)、行業的(de)(de)影(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)較(jiao)大(da)，其次考(kao)慮的(de)(de)是技(ji)(ji)(ji)術難(nan)度(du)和(he)投資(zi)。將地震安全(quan)、項(xiang)目(mu)選址、節約(yue)能源、航(hang)(hang)道通航(hang)(hang)等(deng)(deng)4個(ge)前(qian)置(zhi)(zhi)性(xing)(xing)文(wen)件作(zuo)為“影(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)程(cheng)(cheng)度(du)一(yi)般”來考(kao)慮，主要是因其相對(dui)(dui)(dui)上述前(qian)置(zhi)(zhi)性(xing)(xing)文(wen)件的(de)(de)影(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)程(cheng)(cheng)度(du)，更多的(de)(de)傾向于利用技(ji)(ji)(ji)術手段、通過投資(zi)調(diao)整更易于實現，而不是其對(dui)(dui)(dui)建(jian)設方(fang)案的(de)(de)重(zhong)(zhong)要程(cheng)(cheng)度(du)降低(di)。上述前(qian)置(zhi)(zhi)性(xing)(xing)文(wen)件在(zai)實際工(gong)作(zuo)中(zhong)(zhong)應予以同樣重(zhong)(zhong)視(shi)，本文(wen)論(lun)及的(de)(de)影(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)程(cheng)(cheng)度(du)是從(cong)可行性(xing)(xing)研究報(bao)告和(he)初(chu)步設計(ji)文(wen)件編(bian)制(zhi)過程(cheng)(cheng)中(zhong)(zhong)對(dui)(dui)(dui)建(jian)設方(fang)案的(de)(de)研究和(he)確定(ding)方(fang)面出發，就實際工(gong)作(zuo)中(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)難(nan)易程(cheng)(cheng)度(du)和(he)對(dui)(dui)(dui)策(ce)(ce)進行分析后得出的(de)(de)結(jie)論(lun)。這些(xie)前(qian)置(zhi)(zhi)性(xing)(xing)文(wen)件除單獨編(bian)制(zhi)外，與項(xiang)目(mu)設計(ji)階段的(de)(de)可研、初(chu)步設計(ji)文(wen)件編(bian)制(zhi)也互(hu)相配套或互(hu)為因果關系，如節能、環(huan)評(ping)、水保(bao)、社會(hui)穩(wen)定(ding)風險(xian)分析等(deng)(deng)均(jun)是可研、初(chu)步設計(ji)文(wen)件的(de)(de)組成部分，其余則(ze)直(zhi)接(jie)影(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)到(dao)(dao)建(jian)設方(fang)案的(de)(de)線路走向和(he)工(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)措施。

2提(ti)高鐵路建設方案(an)可實(shi)施(shi)性的對策和方法

2.1目前(qian)鐵路建(jian)設方案存在的不(bu)確定因素

隨著國民(min)經濟的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)飛速發(fa)展和(he)我國城鎮化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)、工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)水(shui)平的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)提高，鐵(tie)路建(jian)設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)對(dui)(dui)自(zi)然(ran)環境(jing)、社(she)會(hui)環境(jing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)越(yue)來(lai)越(yue)大(da)(da)(da)，與(yu)城市(shi)發(fa)展、人(ren)民(min)生活的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)矛盾日益突出(chu)，因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)此(ci)(ci)(ci)與(yu)鐵(tie)路建(jian)設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)方(fang)(fang)(fang)案(an)(an)研究(jiu)(jiu)息息相(xiang)關(guan)(guan)(guan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)環保選(xuan)線、規(gui)(gui)(gui)劃(hua)(hua)選(xuan)線的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)計理念愈加重(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)(yao)(yao)。但正如(ru)任何事物都不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)是一(yi)(yi)成(cheng)不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)變(bian)和(he)停滯不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)前(qian)(qian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)一(yi)(yi)樣(yang)，鐵(tie)路建(jian)設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)方(fang)(fang)(fang)案(an)(an)在(zai)研究(jiu)(jiu)確(que)定(ding)(ding)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)過(guo)程(cheng)(cheng)中(zhong)，受各種外部(bu)(bu)因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)素(su)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)，特別是鐵(tie)路建(jian)設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)立(li)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)、研究(jiu)(jiu)、決(jue)策(ce)、審批(pi)(pi)(pi)(pi)過(guo)程(cheng)(cheng)較(jiao)為(wei)(wei)漫長(chang);可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)研報(bao)告及(ji)各前(qian)(qian)置(zhi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)文(wen)(wen)(wen)件(jian)在(zai)編制(zhi)(zhi)過(guo)程(cheng)(cheng)中(zhong)，地(di)(di)(di)方(fang)(fang)(fang)環保、水(shui)利(li)、國土(tu)、建(jian)設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)、規(gui)(gui)(gui)劃(hua)(hua)、交通(tong)(tong)(tong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)有(you)(you)關(guan)(guan)(guan)部(bu)(bu)門的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)人(ren)員更迭、政(zheng)策(ce)和(he)技(ji)術要(yao)(yao)(yao)求(qiu)(qiu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)調(diao)(diao)整(zheng)，使得原來(lai)已(yi)協商、溝通(tong)(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)意(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)見(jian)有(you)(you)變(bian)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)，甚至推倒重(zhong)(zhong)來(lai)，不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)但對(dui)(dui)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)推進有(you)(you)嚴重(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)干(gan)擾(rao)，也(ye)對(dui)(dui)鐵(tie)路建(jian)設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)方(fang)(fang)(fang)案(an)(an)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)穩(wen)定(ding)(ding)有(you)(you)不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)避免的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)。有(you)(you)關(guan)(guan)(guan)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)素(su)因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)與(yu)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)所在(zai)地(di)(di)(di)理位(wei)(wei)(wei)置(zhi)和(he)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)政(zheng)區(qu)劃(hua)(hua)有(you)(you)很(hen)大(da)(da)(da)關(guan)(guan)(guan)聯，側重(zhong)(zhong)點各有(you)(you)差(cha)異(yi)，本文(wen)(wen)(wen)僅(jin)就普遍性(xing)(xing)(xing)問(wen)(wen)題作一(yi)(yi)個簡單(dan)歸納，。具體項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)特殊問(wen)(wen)題應在(zai)解(jie)(jie)(jie)決(jue)過(guo)程(cheng)(cheng)中(zhong)根據(ju)有(you)(you)關(guan)(guan)(guan)政(zheng)策(ce)和(he)技(ji)術要(yao)(yao)(yao)求(qiu)(qiu)靈活處(chu)理。前(qian)(qian)置(zhi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)文(wen)(wen)(wen)件(jian)批(pi)(pi)(pi)(pi)復(fu)時(shi)間(jian):批(pi)(pi)(pi)(pi)復(fu)時(shi)間(jian)對(dui)(dui)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)性(xing)(xing)(xing)研究(jiu)(jiu)報(bao)告的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)修(xiu)改影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)很(hen)大(da)(da)(da)，因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)此(ci)(ci)(ci)定(ding)(ding)義(yi)(yi)其(qi)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)程(cheng)(cheng)度(du)(du)(du)和(he)范(fan)(fan)圍(wei)均(jun)為(wei)(wei)“大(da)(da)(da)”，一(yi)(yi)旦(dan)批(pi)(pi)(pi)(pi)復(fu)，其(qi)批(pi)(pi)(pi)(pi)復(fu)意(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)見(jian)調(diao)(diao)整(zheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)性(xing)(xing)(xing)很(hen)小(xiao)(xiao)，因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)此(ci)(ci)(ci)定(ding)(ding)義(yi)(yi)變(bian)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)“小(xiao)(xiao)”。前(qian)(qian)置(zhi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)文(wen)(wen)(wen)件(jian)批(pi)(pi)(pi)(pi)復(fu)意(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)見(jian)執行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing):因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)批(pi)(pi)(pi)(pi)復(fu)意(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)見(jian)一(yi)(yi)般具有(you)(you)必須(xu)執行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)強(qiang)制(zhi)(zhi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)作用，因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)此(ci)(ci)(ci)只要(yao)(yao)(yao)批(pi)(pi)(pi)(pi)復(fu)意(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)見(jian)不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)存(cun)在(zai)語(yu)意(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)偏差(cha)，都應該是堅決(jue)執行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)。從這方(fang)(fang)(fang)面(mian)講(jiang)，定(ding)(ding)義(yi)(yi)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)程(cheng)(cheng)度(du)(du)(du)、影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)范(fan)(fan)圍(wei)、變(bian)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)“小(xiao)(xiao)”是合理的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)。前(qian)(qian)置(zhi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)文(wen)(wen)(wen)件(jian)批(pi)(pi)(pi)(pi)復(fu)意(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)見(jian)理解(jie)(jie)(jie)分歧(qi):主要(yao)(yao)(yao)指(zhi)相(xiang)關(guan)(guan)(guan)各方(fang)(fang)(fang)對(dui)(dui)前(qian)(qian)置(zhi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)文(wen)(wen)(wen)件(jian)批(pi)(pi)(pi)(pi)復(fu)意(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)見(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)理解(jie)(jie)(jie)和(he)執行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)。特別當批(pi)(pi)(pi)(pi)復(fu)意(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)見(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)某些條(tiao)(tiao)文(wen)(wen)(wen)帶有(you)(you)“原則(ze)同(tong)意(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)”、“基(ji)本同(tong)意(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)”等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)概括性(xing)(xing)(xing)詞語(yu)時(shi)，項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)研報(bao)告編制(zhi)(zhi)單(dan)位(wei)(wei)(wei)多認為(wei)(wei)該前(qian)(qian)置(zhi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)文(wen)(wen)(wen)件(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)批(pi)(pi)(pi)(pi)復(fu)意(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)見(jian)認可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)研報(bao)告提出(chu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)建(jian)設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)方(fang)(fang)(fang)案(an)(an)和(he)工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)措施，可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)以(yi)不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)再調(diao)(diao)整(zheng)、修(xiu)改可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)研報(bao)告的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)相(xiang)關(guan)(guan)(guan)內容，而前(qian)(qian)置(zhi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)文(wen)(wen)(wen)件(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)編制(zhi)(zhi)單(dan)位(wei)(wei)(wei)或(huo)(huo)該行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)政(zheng)部(bu)(bu)門認為(wei)(wei)應嚴格(ge)執行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)前(qian)(qian)置(zhi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)文(wen)(wen)(wen)件(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)批(pi)(pi)(pi)(pi)復(fu)意(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)見(jian)，由此(ci)(ci)(ci)導(dao)致方(fang)(fang)(fang)案(an)(an)及(ji)工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)實(shi)施、驗收中(zhong)，因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)各方(fang)(fang)(fang)對(dui)(dui)批(pi)(pi)(pi)(pi)復(fu)意(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)見(jian)理解(jie)(jie)(jie)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)分歧(qi)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)導(dao)致相(xiang)關(guan)(guan)(guan)工(gong)(gong)作無法繼續進行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)，所以(yi)定(ding)(ding)義(yi)(yi)其(qi)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)程(cheng)(cheng)度(du)(du)(du)和(he)范(fan)(fan)圍(wei)均(jun)為(wei)(wei)“大(da)(da)(da)”，因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)批(pi)(pi)(pi)(pi)復(fu)意(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)見(jian)調(diao)(diao)整(zheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)性(xing)(xing)(xing)很(hen)小(xiao)(xiao)，因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)此(ci)(ci)(ci)定(ding)(ding)義(yi)(yi)變(bian)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)“小(xiao)(xiao)”。自(zi)然(ran)條(tiao)(tiao)件(jian)中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)“地(di)(di)(di)形地(di)(di)(di)質”:主要(yao)(yao)(yao)指(zhi)地(di)(di)(di)貌、地(di)(di)(di)物發(fa)生變(bian)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)和(he)不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)良地(di)(di)(di)質范(fan)(fan)圍(wei)變(bian)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)，與(yu)地(di)(di)(di)災、防(fang)洪和(he)地(di)(di)(di)震安全(quan)評(ping)(ping)估有(you)(you)很(hen)大(da)(da)(da)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)關(guan)(guan)(guan)系(xi);一(yi)(yi)般地(di)(di)(di)，除非(fei)發(fa)生地(di)(di)(di)震、滑坡、泥石(shi)流等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)重(zhong)(zhong)大(da)(da)(da)地(di)(di)(di)質災害，否則(ze)對(dui)(dui)建(jian)設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)方(fang)(fang)(fang)案(an)(an)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)屬可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)控范(fan)(fan)圍(wei)。自(zi)然(ran)條(tiao)(tiao)件(jian)中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)“環境(jing)”:這里指(zhi)各類(lei)保護區(qu)、水(shui)源區(qu)、文(wen)(wen)(wen)物、河(he)流、各類(lei)礦產資(zi)源、土(tu)地(di)(di)(di)類(lei)別等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)，牽(qian)涉到水(shui)土(tu)保持、土(tu)地(di)(di)(di)、防(fang)洪、地(di)(di)(di)災、壓礦、項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)選(xuan)址(zhi)、通(tong)(tong)(tong)航論證等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)方(fang)(fang)(fang)面(mian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)評(ping)(ping)估，因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)此(ci)(ci)(ci)其(qi)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)程(cheng)(cheng)度(du)(du)(du)和(he)范(fan)(fan)圍(wei)均(jun)為(wei)(wei)“大(da)(da)(da)”，因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)其(qi)在(zai)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)前(qian)(qian)期調(diao)(diao)整(zheng)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)小(xiao)(xiao)，其(qi)變(bian)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)定(ding)(ding)義(yi)(yi)為(wei)(wei)“小(xiao)(xiao)”。自(zi)然(ran)條(tiao)(tiao)件(jian)中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)“重(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)(yao)(yao)構筑(zhu)(zhu)物”:主要(yao)(yao)(yao)指(zhi)軍事設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)施、水(shui)利(li)設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)施、交通(tong)(tong)(tong)設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)施、廠礦企業(ye)(ye)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)，與(yu)環境(jing)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)評(ping)(ping)估有(you)(you)關(guan)(guan)(guan)，受國家政(zheng)策(ce)、部(bu)(bu)門管理等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)人(ren)為(wei)(wei)干(gan)擾(rao)因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)素(su)多，因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)此(ci)(ci)(ci)其(qi)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)程(cheng)(cheng)度(du)(du)(du)和(he)范(fan)(fan)圍(wei)以(yi)及(ji)變(bian)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)均(jun)為(wei)(wei)“大(da)(da)(da)”，是最不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)穩(wen)定(ding)(ding)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)素(su)。社(she)會(hui)因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)素(su)中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)“人(ren)員調(diao)(diao)整(zheng)”:由于行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)部(bu)(bu)門的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)管理人(ren)員調(diao)(diao)整(zheng)，可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)會(hui)對(dui)(dui)已(yi)溝通(tong)(tong)(tong)、協商過(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)意(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)見(jian)重(zhong)(zhong)新評(ping)(ping)估，屬社(she)會(hui)風險(xian)評(ping)(ping)估范(fan)(fan)圍(wei)，但對(dui)(dui)方(fang)(fang)(fang)案(an)(an)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)確(que)定(ding)(ding)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)較(jiao)小(xiao)(xiao)。社(she)會(hui)因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)素(su)中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)“政(zheng)策(ce)技(ji)術變(bian)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)”:該條(tiao)(tiao)主要(yao)(yao)(yao)說(shuo)明由于行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)部(bu)(bu)門的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)政(zheng)策(ce)性(xing)(xing)(xing)變(bian)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)和(he)技(ji)術規(gui)(gui)(gui)范(fan)(fan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)修(xiu)訂，或(huo)(huo)不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)同(tong)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)對(dui)(dui)同(tong)一(yi)(yi)問(wen)(wen)題的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)規(gui)(gui)(gui)定(ding)(ding)不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)同(tong)，導(dao)致建(jian)設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)方(fang)(fang)(fang)案(an)(an)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)修(xiu)改風險(xian)。例如(ru)鐵(tie)路與(yu)石(shi)油液(ye)體儲罐的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)防(fang)火距(ju)離要(yao)(yao)(yao)求(qiu)(qiu)，石(shi)油天然(ran)氣設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)計防(fang)火規(gui)(gui)(gui)范(fan)(fan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)規(gui)(gui)(gui)定(ding)(ding)和(he)鐵(tie)路設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)計防(fang)火規(gui)(gui)(gui)范(fan)(fan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)規(gui)(gui)(gui)定(ding)(ding)存(cun)在(zai)差(cha)異(yi)，執行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)過(guo)程(cheng)(cheng)中(zhong)如(ru)不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)協調(diao)(diao)一(yi)(yi)致，達成(cheng)共識，則(ze)對(dui)(dui)建(jian)設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)方(fang)(fang)(fang)案(an)(an)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)程(cheng)(cheng)度(du)(du)(du)、范(fan)(fan)圍(wei)都很(hen)大(da)(da)(da)，因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)此(ci)(ci)(ci)變(bian)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)性(xing)(xing)(xing)也(ye)很(hen)大(da)(da)(da)。社(she)會(hui)因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)素(su)中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)“規(gui)(gui)(gui)劃(hua)(hua)要(yao)(yao)(yao)求(qiu)(qiu)”:城鎮、交通(tong)(tong)(tong)、建(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)規(gui)(gui)(gui)劃(hua)(hua)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)對(dui)(dui)建(jian)設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)方(fang)(fang)(fang)案(an)(an)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)走向、站(zhan)點設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)置(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)和(he)關(guan)(guan)(guan)聯非(fei)常(chang)密切。一(yi)(yi)般情況下(xia)(xia)，如(ru)規(gui)(gui)(gui)劃(hua)(hua)部(bu)(bu)門提供(gong)(gong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)規(gui)(gui)(gui)劃(hua)(hua)資(zi)料為(wei)(wei)經過(guo)批(pi)(pi)(pi)(pi)準的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)正式材料且較(jiao)為(wei)(wei)詳細，其(qi)變(bian)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)性(xing)(xing)(xing)較(jiao)小(xiao)(xiao)，如(ru)未提供(gong)(gong)正式規(gui)(gui)(gui)劃(hua)(hua)資(zi)料或(huo)(huo)不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)詳細，則(ze)對(dui)(dui)建(jian)設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)方(fang)(fang)(fang)案(an)(an)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)很(hen)大(da)(da)(da)，為(wei)(wei)建(jian)設(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)(she)方(fang)(fang)(fang)案(an)(an)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)實(shi)施埋(mai)下(xia)(xia)了不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)穩(wen)定(ding)(ding)因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)素(su)。

2.2提(ti)高可(ke)實施性(xing)的對策和方(fang)法(fa)

2.2.1改進外部(bu)影響(xiang)因素的對策和方法

(1)建(jian)設(she)單(dan)位提前(qian)介入(ru)，組(zu)織可研報告編(bian)制(zhi)單(dan)位與地方環保、水利、國土、規劃(hua)、交通、建(jian)設(she)等部門進行有(you)(you)效(xiao)溝通，形成權威性且內(nei)容詳盡(jin)的(de)協議文件，一則有(you)(you)利于可研報告編(bian)制(zhi)單(dan)位對相關費用的(de)準確(que)估算并納入(ru)可研報告中，二則有(you)(you)利于項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)實施階段(duan)協議各方遵照執行，不(bu)會節外生枝而(er)有(you)(you)礙于項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)順利推進。

(2)可(ke)研報告編制單位應參照(zhao)合同法(fa)等(deng)有關法(fa)規(gui)文件，對(dui)需要與各(ge)部門簽訂的(de)各(ge)類協(xie)議(yi)文件格(ge)式進行細化，對(dui)各(ge)方責任、義務(wu)和權利，應遵循(xun)的(de)規(gui)定應有較(jiao)為詳盡(jin)的(de)闡述。由于(yu)可(ke)行性研究(jiu)階段鐵路建設方案未(wei)完全落地，存在局(ju)部優化調整(zheng)的(de)可(ke)能(neng)，因此(ci)在協(xie)議(yi)文件中應對(dui)此(ci)有客觀負責的(de)說明(ming)，并可(ke)提出免(mian)責條件和費用調整(zheng)辦法(fa)(變更或(huo)清(qing)概)，以便在項目(mu)實(shi)施時(shi)執行。

(3)可研(yan)報(bao)(bao)告編(bian)制(zhi)單(dan)(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)應(ying)在建設單(dan)(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)管(guan)理下(xia)，與(yu)各前置(zhi)性文(wen)件編(bian)制(zhi)單(dan)(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)密切配合，在保證本(ben)單(dan)(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)商(shang)業機密和國(guo)家(jia)秘(mi)密不(bu)被泄露的(de)前提下(xia)，以(yi)及(ji)知(zhi)識產權不(bu)被侵犯的(de)條(tiao)件下(xia)，提供前置(zhi)性文(wen)件編(bian)制(zhi)單(dan)(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)所需資料。同樣(yang)，各前置(zhi)性文(wen)件編(bian)制(zhi)單(dan)(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)不(bu)能僅依(yi)據(ju)可研(yan)報(bao)(bao)告編(bian)制(zhi)單(dan)(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)提供的(de)資料開展(zhan)工作，也需要進行(xing)現(xian)場調查落實，并將發(fa)現(xian)問(wen)(wen)題(ti)及(ji)時(shi)反(fan)饋(kui)給可研(yan)報(bao)(bao)告編(bian)制(zhi)單(dan)(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)，必要時(shi)或對某一問(wen)(wen)題(ti)存在爭議時(shi)，可由建設單(dan)(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)組織共同進行(xing)現(xian)場會診。

2.2.2提(ti)高建(jian)設(she)方(fang)案研究深(shen)度的對策和方(fang)法(fa)

(1)可研報(bao)告編制單(dan)位在(zai)進駐現場(chang)開展工(gong)作(zuo)時，除與地(di)方(fang)(fang)政(zheng)(zheng)府結(jie)合時進行一般性工(gong)作(zuo)匯報(bao)，提交資料收集清單(dan)外，在(zai)不違(wei)反(fan)保密(mi)政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)和鐵路總公(gong)司(si)相關規定的情況下，盡量(liang)就研究(jiu)的建設(she)方(fang)(fang)案有比較詳細的介紹(shao)，并(bing)認真聽(ting)取地(di)方(fang)(fang)及(ji)各部門的意(yi)見(jian)。遇到對建設(she)方(fang)(fang)案有重大影響(xiang)的意(yi)見(jian)時，需專門到有關部門認真落實并(bing)形成書面溝通結(jie)果，供建設(she)方(fang)(fang)案確定和決策(ce)時采(cai)用。

(2)必要(yao)時可(ke)研報告(gao)編制單(dan)(dan)位(wei)在(zai)補充勘測階(jie)段(duan)采用局部現場放線(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)方(fang)(fang)(fang)法(fa)，特(te)別地段(duan)再加強(qiang)(qiang)勘察手(shou)段(duan)，以(yi)落實(shi)各(ge)(ge)前置(zhi)性(xing)文(wen)件提(ti)(ti)出的(de)(de)(de)(de)強(qiang)(qiang)制性(xing)要(yao)求，避(bi)免建(jian)設(she)方(fang)(fang)(fang)案(an)(an)在(zai)下(xia)階(jie)段(duan)發生(sheng)大的(de)(de)(de)(de)變(bian)化(hua)而延誤項目批復。雖然看起來可(ke)研報告(gao)編制單(dan)(dan)位(wei)在(zai)這個(ge)階(jie)段(duan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)投入加大，但因對建(jian)設(she)方(fang)(fang)(fang)案(an)(an)的(de)(de)(de)(de)確定和決策提(ti)(ti)供了(le)(le)詳(xiang)實(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)依據(ju)，加上前置(zhi)性(xing)文(wen)件專題研究可(ke)靠的(de)(de)(de)(de)結論支(zhi)持(chi)，實(shi)際上不但降低了(le)(le)建(jian)設(she)方(fang)(fang)(fang)案(an)(an)大規模變(bian)化(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風險(xian)，也(ye)提(ti)(ti)高了(le)(le)建(jian)設(she)方(fang)(fang)(fang)案(an)(an)在(zai)沿線(xian)各(ge)(ge)部門(men)的(de)(de)(de)(de)可(ke)信度，從而提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)地方(fang)(fang)(fang)各(ge)(ge)部門(men)對建(jian)設(she)方(fang)(fang)(fang)案(an)(an)的(de)(de)(de)(de)支(zhi)持(chi)力(li)度，易于建(jian)設(she)方(fang)(fang)(fang)案(an)(an)審查(cha)的(de)(de)(de)(de)順利(li)通過，也(ye)就降低了(le)(le)可(ke)研報告(gao)編制單(dan)(dan)位(wei)的(de)(de)(de)(de)總投入。

(3)加強現(xian)場(chang)(chang)的(de)調查(cha)(cha)工(gong)作(zuo)和(he)(he)走訪(fang)工(gong)作(zuo)。可研(yan)報告(gao)編制單位(wei)(wei)應充分利用(yong)1∶1萬(wan)地(di)形(xing)圖(tu)，在(zai)開展調查(cha)(cha)工(gong)作(zuo)時，對圖(tu)中(zhong)與(yu)建(jian)設(she)方(fang)案(an)(an)(an)影響大的(de)河流、文物、水(shui)(shui)(shui)利(含(han)樞紐(niu)、水(shui)(shui)(shui)庫)、道(dao)路(lu)(lu)(含(han)互通樞紐(niu))、醫院、學(xue)校、部隊、電(dian)視(廣播(bo))臺(tai)(tai)、氣(qi)象部門(men)(men)、各(ge)類通訊(xun)發射塔、油(氣(qi))庫及(ji)管(guan)(guan)線(xian)(xian)、加油站、地(di)震(zhen)臺(tai)(tai)、高壓電(dian)力線(xian)(xian)、變(bian)電(dian)所(suo)、畜牧場(chang)(chang)、養殖場(chang)(chang)、鐵路(lu)(lu)及(ji)車站等敏感點(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)圖(tu)例認真解讀，查(cha)(cha)找各(ge)敏感點(dian)(dian)(dian)適(shi)應的(de)法規文件確定的(de)安全距離和(he)(he)控制距離，并(bing)落(luo)實沿線(xian)(xian)各(ge)類保護(hu)區(qu)、風景(jing)區(qu)、水(shui)(shui)(shui)源(yuan)(yuan)區(qu)、基(ji)(ji)本農(nong)田(tian)、礦產資源(yuan)(yuan)、不良(liang)地(di)質分布的(de)位(wei)(wei)置(zhi)和(he)(he)范圍，通過走訪(fang)當地(di)政府和(he)(he)有關部門(men)(men)，以及(ji)現(xian)場(chang)(chang)知(zhi)情人員，進一步確定上(shang)述敏感點(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)性質、級別、所(suo)適(shi)用(yong)的(de)法規文件，用(yong)以確定建(jian)設(she)方(fang)案(an)(an)(an)采用(yong)繞避(bi)或拆遷的(de)何種方(fang)式通過，并(bing)與(yu)產權(quan)單位(wei)(wei)達成協(xie)議，必(bi)要時可通過建(jian)設(she)單位(wei)(wei)與(yu)產權(quan)單位(wei)(wei)的(de)上(shang)級主管(guan)(guan)部門(men)(men)形(xing)成共識。這里需(xu)強調的(de)是，為減少(shao)項目后期實施過程(cheng)中(zhong)水(shui)(shui)(shui)土(tu)(tu)保持方(fang)案(an)(an)(an)的(de)爭議，應將(jiang)隧道(dao)棄砟場(chang)(chang)、橋梁棄土(tu)(tu)場(chang)(chang)、站場(chang)(chang)和(he)(he)路(lu)(lu)基(ji)(ji)取棄土(tu)(tu)場(chang)(chang)的(de)選(xuan)址、調查(cha)(cha)、勘察和(he)(he)協(xie)議簽訂(ding)工(gong)作(zuo)納入到可研(yan)報告(gao)中(zhong)專題說明。

(4)可(ke)研報告編制單(dan)(dan)位應積極參與(yu)各前置(zhi)(zhi)性文件的(de)審查、修(xiu)改工(gong)作。除提供必要的(de)技術資料支持(chi)外(wai)，對(dui)審查過程進行(xing)的(de)現場調研、審查答疑也應積極參與(yu)，這樣不(bu)僅有利于(yu)各前置(zhi)(zhi)性文件審查單(dan)(dan)位對(dui)項目建設方案的(de)理(li)解，也有利于(yu)審查意(yi)見的(de)針對(dui)性和(he)合理(li)性，減少因(yin)審查意(yi)見太原則和(he)泛(fan)(fan)泛(fan)(fan)引發的(de)執行(xing)難度和(he)分歧。

(5)可研(yan)報告(gao)編制(zhi)單位在(zai)(zai)收到(dao)各前置性文件(jian)的批復(fu)意(yi)見(jian)時，應認真研(yan)究對建(jian)設(she)方(fang)案的影響，對批復(fu)意(yi)見(jian)分解到(dao)各個相(xiang)關專業，規(gui)定(ding)在(zai)(zai)補充(chong)初(chu)(chu)測和(he)定(ding)測期間就外業調查、協(xie)議(yi)協(xie)商、資(zi)料更(geng)新(xin)、措施調整等(deng)方(fang)面開展(zhan)針對性工作，在(zai)(zai)初(chu)(chu)步(bu)設(she)計階段就批復(fu)意(yi)見(jian)執行情況與建(jian)設(she)單位進行溝通。

3結論

篇7

關鍵詞：潰壩洪水；洪水演進；淹沒范圍；風險評估；數值模擬；生(sheng)命(ming)損失

中(zhong)圖分類號：TV122 文(wen)獻標志碼：A 文(wen)章編(bian)號：1672-1683（2014）06-0189-03

水庫(ku)(ku)(ku)是防(fang)洪(hong)(hong)體系與水利基礎(chu)設施的(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)(zhong)要組成(cheng)(cheng)部(bu)分，在(zai)(zai)防(fang)洪(hong)(hong)、灌溉(gai)、供水、發(fa)(fa)電和改善(shan)生(sheng)態與環境等方面發(fa)(fa)揮著(zhu)巨大的(de)(de)(de)(de)作(zuo)用，但是水庫(ku)(ku)(ku)也(ye)存在(zai)(zai)著(zhu)潰壩(ba)(ba)(ba)風險；而(er)隨著(zhu)社會和國民經濟的(de)(de)(de)(de)迅速(su)發(fa)(fa)展，洪(hong)(hong)水災(zai)(zai)害(hai)所(suo)造成(cheng)(cheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)損失(shi)越來越大，洪(hong)(hong)水災(zai)(zai)害(hai)風險研(yan)究已(yi)成(cheng)(cheng)為災(zai)(zai)害(hai)研(yan)究中的(de)(de)(de)(de)一(yi)個重(zhong)(zhong)要內容。因此模擬(ni)潰壩(ba)(ba)(ba)洪(hong)(hong)水，準確預測(ce)堤壩(ba)(ba)(ba)的(de)(de)(de)(de)潰決過程(cheng)及其壩(ba)(ba)(ba)下游洪(hong)(hong)水演進，對于處置(zhi)潰壩(ba)(ba)(ba)突發(fa)(fa)性洪(hong)(hong)水災(zai)(zai)害(hai)，提(ti)升應(ying)(ying)對突發(fa)(fa)安全(quan)事件能力，具有十分重(zhong)(zhong)大的(de)(de)(de)(de)意義(yi)。江西省油羅口水庫(ku)(ku)(ku)作(zuo)為章江流域(yu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)控制性工程(cheng)，擔負著(zhu)下游大余縣城、南康市10余萬人口、2 533.33 hm2農(nong)田生(sheng)命財(cai)產安全(quan)及京(jing)九鐵路(lu)、贛韶高速(su)、323國道等重(zhong)(zhong)要設施的(de)(de)(de)(de)安全(quan)重(zhong)(zhong)任。本(ben)文在(zai)(zai)已(yi)有潰壩(ba)(ba)(ba)洪(hong)(hong)水數(shu)學模型的(de)(de)(de)(de)基礎(chu)上(shang)，對油羅口水庫(ku)(ku)(ku)潰壩(ba)(ba)(ba)洪(hong)(hong)水進行模擬(ni)與分析，旨在(zai)(zai)為水行政主(zhu)管部(bu)門制定大壩(ba)(ba)(ba)防(fang)洪(hong)(hong)減(jian)災(zai)(zai)工作(zuo)規劃及水庫(ku)(ku)(ku)大壩(ba)(ba)(ba)管理應(ying)(ying)急預案提(ti)供依(yi)據。

1 潰壩洪水數值模型

1.1 潰壩(ba)壩(ba)址處洪水(shui)模(mo)型

本文采用美國(guo)國(guo)家(jia)氣(qi)象局基于預報土(tu)壩洪水(shui)過程線而開(kai)發的Breach數學模(mo)型(xing)[1-2]。該(gai)模(mo)型(xing)建立(li)在水(shui)力(li)學、泥沙輸移、土(tu)力(li)學、大壩幾何尺寸(cun)與數學特(te)征、水(shui)庫庫容特(te)征、溢(yi)洪道特(te)征及入庫流量隨(sui)時間變化的基礎上，可以模(mo)擬均質壩或不同特(te)性(xing)材(cai)料組成(cheng)的壩殼和心墻壩，因管(guan)涌引起的潰壩。

發生管涌潰(kui)壩(ba)模式(shi)，潰(kui)口流量計算公式(shi)如下(xia)[3]：

式中：Qb為(wei)(wei)(wei)流量；A為(wei)(wei)(wei)管(guan)(guan)涌橫(heng)斷面積；g為(wei)(wei)(wei)重力加速度(du)；H為(wei)(wei)(wei)上游庫(ku)水(shui)位；HP為(wei)(wei)(wei)管(guan)(guan)涌初(chu)始平均(jun)高程；f為(wei)(wei)(wei)摩(mo)擦系數；L為(wei)(wei)(wei)管(guan)(guan)涌長度(du)；D為(wei)(wei)(wei)管(guan)(guan)涌直(zhi)徑（寬(kuan)度(du)）。

式中：NR為雷洛數，其余符號(hao)含(han)義同(tong)式（1）。

1.2 水庫下游(you)洪(hong)水演進數(shu)值(zhi)模型

本(ben)文研究潰(kui)壩洪水流量對下游的影響，采用基于圣維南方程(cheng)守(shou)恒形式的二維平(ping)均水深(shen)有限單元數值模(mo)型進行模(mo)擬(ni)[4]。控(kong)制方程(cheng)如下：

式中：H為(wei)(wei)水深(shen)；qx、qy分(fen)(fen)別(bie)為(wei)(wei)x、y方(fang)向與(yu)流速相關(guan)的流量強度(du)(du)；U、V分(fen)(fen)別(bie)為(wei)(wei)x、y方(fang)向平均(jun)流速；g為(wei)(wei)重力加(jia)速度(du)(du)；ρ為(wei)(wei)水的密度(du)(du)；Sox、Soy分(fen)(fen)別(bie)為(wei)(wei)x、y方(fang)向河床坡度(du)(du)；Sfx、Sfy分(fen)(fen)別(bie)為(wei)(wei)x、y方(fang)向阻力坡度(du)(du)；τxx、τxy、τyx、τyy為(wei)(wei)水平方(fang)向紊動(dong)應力張量。

2 油羅口水(shui)庫大壩潰壩洪水(shui)對下游的淹沒計算2.1 工程概況

油(you)羅口(kou)水庫大壩(ba)(ba)(ba)位(wei)于(yu)江西(xi)省贛(gan)州市大余(yu)縣城以西(xi)章江上(shang)游10 km處(chu)，1971年建(jian)成，是(shi)一座以防(fang)洪(hong)為主(zhu)，兼供水、發電(dian)、灌溉等綜(zong)合效益的大（2）型水庫。主(zhu)壩(ba)(ba)(ba)為碾(nian)壓(ya)式(shi)(shi)黏(nian)土(tu)心墻壩(ba)(ba)(ba)，最(zui)大壩(ba)(ba)(ba)高36.0 m，壩(ba)(ba)(ba)頂長177.0 m。副壩(ba)(ba)(ba)為碾(nian)壓(ya)式(shi)(shi)黏(nian)土(tu)斜墻壩(ba)(ba)(ba)，位(wei)于(yu)主(zhu)壩(ba)(ba)(ba)左(zuo)岸(an)天然埡(wu)口(kou)處(chu)，最(zui)大壩(ba)(ba)(ba)高31.0 m，壩(ba)(ba)(ba)頂長93.0 m。溢(yi)洪(hong)道為河岸(an)開敞式(shi)(shi)，設(she)在副壩(ba)(ba)(ba)左(zuo)岸(an)，設(she)4扇10 m×6.8 m鋼質弧形閘門。發電(dian)引(yin)水隧洞(dong)位(wei)于(yu)副壩(ba)(ba)(ba)與溢(yi)洪(hong)道之間，由(you)引(yin)水明渠、隧洞(dong)及壓(ya)力鋼管組(zu)成。發電(dian)廠房為壩(ba)(ba)(ba)后式(shi)(shi)地(di)面廠房，設(she)2臺3 000 kW的水輪發電(dian)機組(zu)。

2.2 壩(ba)址處潰壩(ba)流量計算

根(gen)據已有資料對油羅口水庫大(da)壩破壞(huai)模(mo)式(shi)識別、破壞(huai)路(lu)徑(jing)及潰(kui)壩概率的分析，確定(ding)大(da)壩潰(kui)決形式(shi)為(wei)漸潰(kui)，最大(da)失事(shi)可能(neng)為(wei)5000年一遇校核(he)洪水下副(fu)壩212.0 m高程處發(fa)生管涌(yong)破壞(huai)導致(zhi)潰(kui)壩[5]。按(an)照Breach模(mo)型軟件文(wen)本輸入(ru)格(ge)式(shi)，輸入(ru)相關計算參數（表1、表2），選擇模(mo)擬時(shi)間為(wei)7 h，計算出的壩址潰(kui)口流量與時(shi)間關系過程線見圖(tu)1。

2.3 水(shui)(shui)庫(ku)下游潰壩洪水(shui)(shui)演(yan)進(jin)計算(suan)

2.3.1 有限(xian)單元數值模(mo)型的構建

本文研(yan)究范圍為(wei)油羅口(kou)水(shui)庫大壩(ba)壩(ba)址至下游(you)贛州鈷(gu)冶煉廠(chang)處(chu)，全長約12.7 km。研(yan)究范圍內所(suo)有支流(liu)等內邊界條件(jian)資料欠缺，且(qie)潰(kui)壩(ba)情況下影響不(bu)大，因此不(bu)予(yu)考慮，僅考慮

地(di)勢較高的山(shan)包(bao)。采用ArcGIS軟件平臺(tai)[6-8]，根據江(jiang)西省測(ce)繪局測(ce)量的1∶1萬(wan)地(di)形圖，提取相關邊界和空間信息(xi)數據生成計算(suan)(suan)域，應用River2D二維計算(suan)(suan)軟件[9-11]，采用三角形單元(yuan)劃分網格生成有限(xian)單元(yuan)數值模型，見圖2。

2.3.2 計算參(can)數

入(ru)口邊界條(tiao)件：以圖1潰口流(liu)量(liang)過程線來(lai)表示。

出口邊界(jie)條件(jian)：以出口斷面水位流量關系來(lai)表示。

河道(dao)糙(cao)率(lv)系數：考慮淹(yan)沒(mei)區域無實(shi)測糙(cao)率(lv)資料，參(can)照有關工(gong)程經驗，河道(dao)糙(cao)率(lv)取為0.034，陸地糙(cao)率(lv)取為0.04，城市建筑群糙(cao)率(lv)取為0.3。

2.3.3 潰壩(ba)洪水(shui)淹沒(mei)影響分析(xi)

計算(suan)模擬(ni)時間步長取為(wei)10 s，水庫(ku)大壩壩址至下(xia)游贛(gan)州鈷(gu)冶煉廠處洪水淹沒水深風險圖，見圖3。

根據潰壩洪水淹沒水深(shen)圖，5000年一遇校核洪水副壩管(guan)涌導(dao)致潰壩情況下(xia)，潰壩洪水影響涉(she)及2個行政村(cun)（鎮）、15個自(zi)然村(cun)（區(qu)），總受(shou)災(zai)人口達70 462人。

2.3.4 潰壩生命損失及社(she)會風險值估(gu)算(suan)

根據(ju)研究范圍內(nei)潰壩下(xia)泄洪(hong)水(shui)(shui)的(de)淹(yan)沒(mei)(mei)區(qu)域(yu)(yu)，考慮潰壩發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)在白(bai)(bai)天和(he)夜(ye)晚(wan)兩種不同(tong)情況(kuang)（假定白(bai)(bai)天從上午7時(shi)(shi)到(dao)下(xia)午5時(shi)(shi)，夜(ye)晚(wan)從下(xia)午5時(shi)(shi)到(dao)早上7時(shi)(shi)），采用影響(xiang)因子(zi)法[12]（白(bai)(bai)天取0.7，夜(ye)晚(wan)取0.85），計(ji)算(suan)(suan)出淹(yan)沒(mei)(mei)區(qu)域(yu)(yu)的(de)風險(xian)人口數，然后依據(ju)潰壩洪(hong)水(shui)(shui)嚴重性(xing)與DV值之(zhi)間的(de)關系(xi)[13]，對淹(yan)沒(mei)(mei)區(qu)域(yu)(yu)內(nei)的(de)潰壩洪(hong)水(shui)(shui)嚴重性(xing)進行定性(xing)劃分，并假定油(you)羅口水(shui)(shui)庫大壩管理(li)單(dan)位對所(suo)有淹(yan)沒(mei)(mei)區(qu)域(yu)(yu)的(de)警報時(shi)(shi)間都是(shi)一樣的(de)基礎上，采用李(li)雷-周克發[14]建議的(de)我國風險(xian)人口死亡率建議表，按照Graham法[15-16]，計(ji)算(suan)(suan)出在不同(tong)的(de)警報時(shi)(shi)間WT情況(kuang)下(xia)，淹(yan)沒(mei)(mei)區(qu)白(bai)(bai)天和(he)晚(wan)上的(de)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)命(ming)損(sun)失(shi)值（LOL）及生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)命(ming)社會風險(xian)值（fN），見(jian)表3。

對于(yu)(yu)大(da)型水庫來說(shuo)，如果(guo)潰(kui)壩人(ren)數(shu)超(chao)過(guo)100人(ren)，則小于(yu)(yu)1.0×10-6/（a?人(ren)）的(de)生命社會(hui)風險是可(ke)接受的(de)，超(chao)過(guo)1.0×10-5/（a?人(ren)）的(de)生命社會(hui)風險是不可(ke)容忍的(de)[12]。從表3可(ke)知，當警報時間(jian)小于(yu)(yu)或(huo)等(deng)于(yu)(yu)5 h，研究范圍內由潰(kui)壩造成的(de)生

命(ming)社會(hui)風險(xian)是(shi)(shi)不可容忍(ren)(ren)的。因(yin)此，當油羅口水庫(ku)遭遇5000年一遇校核(he)洪水位發(fa)生(sheng)副壩(ba)潰壩(ba)時，即使(shi)是(shi)(shi)發(fa)生(sheng)在白天，水庫(ku)運行管理單位對研究范圍內(nei)發(fa)出的警報時間須保證大于5 h以上，否則其所造成的生(sheng)命(ming)社會(hui)風險(xian)是(shi)(shi)不可容忍(ren)(ren)的。

3 結語

本文(wen)應(ying)用二(er)維有限單(dan)元數值模型(xing)的(de)方法，模擬了油羅口水(shui)(shui)庫潰壩(ba)(ba)下游洪(hong)(hong)水(shui)(shui)演(yan)進過程，繪制(zhi)了研究區間淹(yan)沒(mei)水(shui)(shui)深分布圖(tu)，分析(xi)了潰壩(ba)(ba)后(hou)造成的(de)生命社(she)會風險。該研究結果可在油羅口水(shui)(shui)庫大壩(ba)(ba)運行(xing)(xing)管(guan)理(li)單(dan)位制(zhi)定大壩(ba)(ba)安全管(guan)理(li)應(ying)急預(yu)(yu)案(an)時(shi)，為其確定潰壩(ba)(ba)洪(hong)(hong)水(shui)(shui)淹(yan)沒(mei)范(fan)圍及程度的(de)劃定、人員轉(zhuan)移（避險）路線及區域的(de)設(she)置等方面提供(gong)參考，從而有利于提高預(yu)(yu)案(an)的(de)可操作性，增(zeng)強運行(xing)(xing)管(guan)理(li)單(dan)位抵御潰壩(ba)(ba)洪(hong)(hong)水(shui)(shui)災(zai)害的(de)能力。

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篇8

【關鍵詞】水利水電工程系統；風險評估；方法

水(shui)(shui)(shui)利(li)水(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程系統主要是(shi)將水(shui)(shui)(shui)利(li)水(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程認為是(shi)一種(zhong)(zhong)整體(ti)的(de)(de)系統，通(tong)過這樣的(de)(de)方法來分(fen)(fen)析水(shui)(shui)(shui)利(li)水(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程工(gong)(gong)(gong)作(zuo)中的(de)(de)各種(zhong)(zhong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)作(zuo)過程，從(cong)而能夠(gou)更(geng)好地將水(shui)(shui)(shui)利(li)水(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程中各項風險進行(xing)體(ti)現，也就能夠(gou)提前做好相(xiang)應的(de)(de)措施，防止意外情況的(de)(de)發生。因此在實際的(de)(de)工(gong)(gong)(gong)作(zuo)過程中就十分(fen)(fen)有必要對水(shui)(shui)(shui)利(li)水(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程建設從(cong)整體(ti)上(shang)進行(xing)風險評(ping)估研(yan)究(jiu)，保證(zheng)我國的(de)(de)水(shui)(shui)(shui)利(li)水(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程正常的(de)(de)進行(xing)。

一、水利水電工(gong)程系統的(de)概(gai)念以及意義

（一）水(shui)利水(shui)電工程系統的(de)定義(yi)

系統(tong)工(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)的(de)概(gai)念就是指能夠應(ying)用到所有領域的(de)科(ke)學技(ji)術(shu)的(de)方(fang)法(fa)，對應(ying)不(bu)(bu)同的(de)領域使(shi)用不(bu)(bu)同的(de)系統(tong)工(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)概(gai)念的(de)應(ying)用。對于水(shui)利(li)(li)(li)水(shui)電(dian)工(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)而(er)言(yan)，由于其自身的(de)特點，在進行建設的(de)過(guo)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)中較為復(fu)雜(za)，因(yin)此(ci)如果以普通的(de)方(fang)式來(lai)對水(shui)利(li)(li)(li)水(shui)電(dian)工(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)進行研究(jiu)顯然無法(fa)達到較好的(de)效(xiao)果，因(yin)此(ci)就需要(yao)使(shi)用系統(tong)工(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)來(lai)對水(shui)利(li)(li)(li)水(shui)電(dian)工(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)來(lai)進行研究(jiu)。而(er)水(shui)利(li)(li)(li)水(shui)電(dian)工(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)的(de)系統(tong)工(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)的(de)定(ding)義為，水(shui)利(li)(li)(li)水(shui)電(dian)工(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)從規劃，設計，勘測，施工(gong)最后(hou)到運(yun)行的(de)整個(ge)過(guo)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)。水(shui)利(li)(li)(li)水(shui)電(dian)工(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)的(de)系統(tong)工(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)也(ye)包括了水(shui)利(li)(li)(li)水(shui)電(dian)工(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)的(de)主體結構與外部(bu)環境之間的(de)相互聯系以及相互作用。

（二）水利水電工程(cheng)系(xi)統的特點

水(shui)利(li)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)系統(tong)往(wang)往(wang)具有(you)(you)以下四(si)種(zhong)特點(dian)(dian)。第一種(zhong)特點(dian)(dian)，水(shui)利(li)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)系統(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)個性(xing)十分突出，每一個水(shui)利(li)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)都有(you)(you)其自(zi)身獨特的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)水(shui)文，地(di)質，地(di)形等自(zi)然條(tiao)件，因此設計的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)系統(tong)就需要(yao)(yao)與已(yi)(yi)有(you)(you)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)系統(tong)功(gong)能(neng)要(yao)(yao)求即(ji)使(shi)能(neng)夠(gou)達(da)到完全相同的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)情況，也不能(neng)夠(gou)進行套用，只能(neng)夠(gou)借鑒出已(yi)(yi)有(you)(you)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)系統(tong)功(gong)能(neng)來(lai)進行系統(tong)構(gou)建(jian)(jian)方案的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)選擇(ze)。在(zai)(zai)(zai)第二點(dian)(dian)上，水(shui)利(li)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)往(wang)往(wang)比較大，因此在(zai)(zai)(zai)建(jian)(jian)設的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)過(guo)(guo)程(cheng)中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風險會隨之增高(gao)。在(zai)(zai)(zai)這樣的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)情況下，是不允許采用在(zai)(zai)(zai)原模(mo)型上做實驗(yan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)方法(fa)來(lai)進行結(jie)構(gou)進行選擇(ze)。在(zai)(zai)(zai)第三點(dian)(dian)上，水(shui)利(li)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)系統(tong)往(wang)往(wang)會比較重視(shi)規程(cheng)規范的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)指導作(zuo)(zuo)用，由于系統(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)設計無法(fa)擺脫外界(jie)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)響經(jing)驗(yan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)這種(zhong)模(mo)式，因此在(zai)(zai)(zai)設計工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)中(zhong)，往(wang)往(wang)十分重視(shi)歷(li)史上的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)國內(nei)國外的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)各(ge)種(zhong)成功(gong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)經(jing)驗(yan)以及(ji)失(shi)敗的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)教訓，通(tong)過(guo)(guo)這些(xie)種(zhong)類的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)總結(jie)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)能(neng)夠(gou)較好地(di)將(jiang)各(ge)種(zhong)條(tiao)文進行規范，減少在(zai)(zai)(zai)實際的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)建(jian)(jian)設過(guo)(guo)程(cheng)中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)損失(shi)。在(zai)(zai)(zai)第四(si)點(dian)(dian)上，水(shui)利(li)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)系統(tong)在(zai)(zai)(zai)施工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)過(guo)(guo)程(cheng)中(zhong)，不能(neng)夠(gou)以避讓的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)方式來(lai)擺脫外界(jie)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)各(ge)種(zhong)影(ying)響，因此在(zai)(zai)(zai)水(shui)利(li)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)在(zai)(zai)(zai)沒有(you)(you)開工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)之前(qian)就應該讓已(yi)(yi)經(jing)建(jian)(jian)成的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)部分結(jie)構(gou)來(lai)承擔一些(xie)外部作(zuo)(zuo)用。

（三(san)）水利水電工程(cheng)的功能以及結構

系(xi)(xi)統的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)結構(gou)往(wang)往(wang)指(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)是在系(xi)(xi)統中的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)各個單元之間的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)聯(lian)系(xi)(xi)以(yi)及(ji)制約，并且通過相互的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)作用形成的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)關系(xi)(xi)以(yi)及(ji)形式。在水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)利水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)電工(gong)(gong)程的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)系(xi)(xi)統當(dang)(dang)中，水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)和其他(ta)不同用途的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)工(gong)(gong)建(jian)筑(zhu)物是系(xi)(xi)統的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)物質元素，水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)利樞紐的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)設(she)計方案，水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)利水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)電工(gong)(gong)程的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)招標投標，建(jian)筑(zhu)物的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)施工(gong)(gong)管理以(yi)及(ji)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)利水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)電工(gong)(gong)程。水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)利水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)電工(gong)(gong)程的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)目標就是在水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)利水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)電工(gong)(gong)程完(wan)成后能(neng)夠起到灌(guan)溉，防洪，工(gong)(gong)業用水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)，城(cheng)市用水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)以(yi)及(ji)發電的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)作用，這些功能(neng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)實現往(wang)往(wang)取決于(yu)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)利水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)電工(gong)(gong)程的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)大壩主體(ti)是否能(neng)夠滿足(zu)盈(ying)利方面的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)各種要求，同時也(ye)與整個水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)利水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)電工(gong)(gong)程的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)組織(zhi)管理技(ji)術有著相當(dang)(dang)密切的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)關系(xi)(xi)。

二、水(shui)利水(shui)電(dian)工程系統的風險(xian)

水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)利(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)系(xi)統(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)險指(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)就是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)利(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)系(xi)統(tong)在(zai)每一(yi)個建(jian)設階段存在(zai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)可能結果(guo)與(yu)預(yu)期目標之間存在(zai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)各(ge)種差異，或指(zhi)使水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)利(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)在(zai)進行(xing)建(jian)設的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)過(guo)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)中(zhong)發生的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)實際(ji)結果(guo)偏離(li)預(yu)期的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)情況發生的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)可能性(xing)(xing)。這(zhe)些情況都是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)對水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)利(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)正(zheng)常建(jian)設有著較大影響的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)。同時也是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)建(jian)設的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)決策管理者不愿意看到的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)。水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)利(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)系(xi)統(tong)風(feng)險往往具(ju)有以下的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)幾種特(te)點(dian)。在(zai)第(di)一(yi)點(dian)上，水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)利(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)系(xi)統(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)險是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)實際(ji)存在(zai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)，在(zai)對水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)利(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)建(jian)設的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)過(guo)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)中(zhong)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)無法通(tong)過(guo)人為的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)方法進行(xing)完全的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)避免的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)。第(di)二點(dian)，水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)利(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)系(xi)統(tong)風(feng)險發生是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)具(ju)有不確定性(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)。在(zai)第(di)三點(dian)上，水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)利(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)系(xi)統(tong)風(feng)險的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)后果(guo)也往往會具(ju)有不確定性(xing)(xing)。在(zai)第(di)四點(dian)上，水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)利(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)系(xi)統(tong)風(feng)險具(ju)有可預(yu)測(ce)性(xing)(xing)，能夠進行(xing)相(xiang)應的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)預(yu)測(ce)。在(zai)第(di)五點(dian)上，水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)利(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)系(xi)統(tong)風(feng)險與(yu)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)利(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)帶來(lai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)效益是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)矛盾統(tong)一(yi)體。在(zai)第(di)六(liu)點(dian)上，水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)利(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)系(xi)統(tong)風(feng)險具(ju)有相(xiang)當大的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)危害性(xing)(xing)，一(yi)旦(dan)在(zai)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)利(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)在(zai)進行(xing)建(jian)設的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)過(guo)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)中(zhong)產(chan)生了風(feng)險，那么會造成(cheng)極(ji)大的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)危害。

三、水(shui)利水(shui)電工程系(xi)統風險(xian)的評估(gu)方法

（一）水利水電工程系統主(zhu)觀評分法

這(zhe)種方法(fa)又被叫(jiao)做專(zhuan)家(jia)主觀評(ping)分法(fa)，一般(ban)的流程(cheng)就(jiu)(jiu)是(shi)首先編制水利(li)水電(dian)(dian)工(gong)程(cheng)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)風(feng)險(xian)的預測表格，其(qi)中也包括了(le)風(feng)險(xian)影響的要素以及(ji)相應(ying)的權(quan)重(zhong)值(zhi)，然后再聘請水利(li)水電(dian)(dian)行(xing)業的專(zhuan)家(jia)根據自己的經(jing)驗來對每(mei)一項風(feng)險(xian)來給(gei)出(chu)(chu)相應(ying)的分值(zhi)，水利(li)水電(dian)(dian)工(gong)程(cheng)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)風(feng)險(xian)管理人員(yuan)通(tong)過計算調查表中的權(quan)重(zhong)值(zhi)并且通(tong)過綜合(he)專(zhuan)家(jia)的評(ping)分結果(guo)來給(gei)出(chu)(chu)總體風(feng)險(xian)的評(ping)定，在最后就(jiu)(jiu)能夠考察(cha)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)能夠接受最大的風(feng)險(xian)的范圍。

（二）水(shui)利水(shui)電工(gong)程(cheng)的概率統(tong)計(ji)方法

概率(lv)統(tong)(tong)計(ji)(ji)風(feng)險(xian)的(de)(de)分析法(fa)是一種(zhong)知(zhi)道(dao)未來系統(tong)(tong)可能會出(chu)現的(de)(de)多(duo)種(zhong)狀態(tai)(tai)，并且能夠(gou)估(gu)算出(chu)每種(zhong)狀態(tai)(tai)發(fa)生的(de)(de)概率(lv)。但是在這種(zhong)方(fang)法(fa)下(xia)，是無(wu)法(fa)對風(feng)險(xian)的(de)(de)多(duo)種(zhong)狀態(tai)(tai)進(jin)行較(jiao)好的(de)(de)分析，同時也不(bu)能夠(gou)確(que)定出(chu)哪種(zhong)狀態(tai)(tai)是能夠(gou)實(shi)(shi)現的(de)(de)。因此在這樣的(de)(de)情況下(xia)，就(jiu)需要系統(tong)(tong)自身具有以下(xia)的(de)(de)集點(dian)，首先需要讓整個(ge)(ge)系統(tong)(tong)存在兩個(ge)(ge)或(huo)是兩個(ge)(ge)以上不(bu)以人為意(yi)志轉移的(de)(de)自然狀態(tai)(tai)，然后整個(ge)(ge)系統(tong)(tong)應該存在兩個(ge)(ge)或(huo)兩個(ge)(ge)以上能夠(gou)確(que)實(shi)(shi)可行的(de)(de)設計(ji)(ji)方(fang)案。在最后系統(tong)(tong)未來發(fa)生的(de)(de)狀態(tai)(tai)的(de)(de)概率(lv)進(jin)行考慮，這樣也就(jiu)能夠(gou)指導系統(tong)(tong)未來發(fa)生的(de)(de)可能狀態(tai)(tai)。

（三）水(shui)利水(shui)電(dian)工程系統(tong)的德爾菲法

這種評(ping)估風險的(de)方(fang)(fang)法(fa)(fa)主要是(shi)在專(zhuan)家評(ping)分(fen)的(de)基(ji)礎(chu)上進(jin)行(xing)一種改進(jin)后(hou)的(de)方(fang)(fang)法(fa)(fa)。這種方(fang)(fang)法(fa)(fa)的(de)原(yuan)理是(shi)首先(xian)先(xian)匿名的(de)征求專(zhuan)輯(ji)的(de)意(yi)見(jian)，然后(hou)在獲(huo)得還價意(yi)見(jian)后(hou)將(jiang)(jiang)這些意(yi)見(jian)進(jin)行(xing)相應(ying)的(de)整(zheng)理以(yi)及統(tong)(tong)計(ji)(ji)歸(gui)納，在統(tong)(tong)計(ji)(ji)歸(gui)納后(hou)就(jiu)能夠將(jiang)(jiang)專(zhuan)家的(de)意(yi)見(jian)進(jin)行(xing)評(ping)估，通過這樣的(de)方(fang)(fang)法(fa)(fa)就(jiu)能夠較好(hao)地將(jiang)(jiang)水利水電系統(tong)(tong)可(ke)能發生(sheng)的(de)各種風險較好(hao)的(de)評(ping)估。

篇9

我市(shi)是受氣(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)災(zai)害影(ying)響嚴重的(de)地區，臺風、暴雨、大風、雷(lei)電、干旱、冰雹、大霧、高溫(wen)、寒潮等氣(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)災(zai)害對全市(shi)經濟(ji)社會發展、人(ren)民(min)群眾(zhong)生(sheng)(sheng)活以及生(sheng)(sheng)態環(huan)境造成(cheng)了(le)較大影(ying)響。為(wei)切實提(ti)高我市(shi)氣(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)災(zai)害防御(yu)能力，保障人(ren)民(min)群眾(zhong)生(sheng)(sheng)命財產安全，促進經濟(ji)社會又(you)(you)好又(you)(you)快發展，根(gen)據《國(guo)務院辦(ban)公廳關于(yu)進一步(bu)(bu)加(jia)強氣(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)災(zai)害防御(yu)工作的(de)意(yi)見》（〔2007〕49號）和《浙(zhe)江省(sheng)人(ren)民(min)政(zheng)府辦(ban)公廳關于(yu)進一步(bu)(bu)加(jia)強氣(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)災(zai)害防御(yu)工作的(de)意(yi)見》（浙(zhe)政(zheng)辦(ban)發〔2007〕99號）精(jing)神(shen)，現就進一步(bu)(bu)加(jia)強氣(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)災(zai)害防御(yu)工作通(tong)知如下(xia)：

一、進一步(bu)提高氣(qi)象災害監(jian)測預警能(neng)力

（一）加(jia)強氣(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)災(zai)(zai)(zai)害(hai)(hai)綜(zong)(zong)合監測(ce)(ce)預(yu)警(jing)體系(xi)建(jian)(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)。各級政(zheng)府(fu)要(yao)認真貫徹(che)執行《**市氣(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)事業(ye)“十一五”發(fa)展規(gui)劃》，組(zu)織有(you)關部門加(jia)強氣(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)災(zai)(zai)(zai)害(hai)(hai)綜(zong)(zong)合監測(ce)(ce)預(yu)警(jing)體系(xi)的統(tong)籌規(gui)劃，加(jia)快氣(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)災(zai)(zai)(zai)害(hai)(hai)應急(ji)預(yu)警(jing)工程建(jian)(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)。建(jian)(jian)(jian)立完(wan)善雷達、自(zi)動(dong)氣(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)站等天氣(qi)觀(guan)測(ce)(ce)網和(he)(he)雷電、船舶自(zi)動(dong)氣(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)站、梯度風、能見度站、酸雨、大(da)氣(qi)成份、土壤墑情等專業(ye)氣(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)觀(guan)測(ce)(ce)網，建(jian)(jian)(jian)成以提高(gao)中小(xiao)尺度天氣(qi)監測(ce)(ce)能力(li)和(he)(he)氣(qi)候(hou)變化(hua)監測(ce)(ce)水平為(wei)主要(yao)目的的綜(zong)(zong)合氣(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)觀(guan)測(ce)(ce)系(xi)統(tong)。有(you)關部門要(yao)按照(zhao)職責分工，做好漁(yu)農村、沿海（海上(shang)）、地(di)質災(zai)(zai)(zai)害(hai)(hai)易發(fa)地(di)區和(he)(he)災(zai)(zai)(zai)害(hai)(hai)多(duo)發(fa)區域的氣(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)災(zai)(zai)(zai)害(hai)(hai)及次生(sheng)災(zai)(zai)(zai)害(hai)(hai)監測(ce)(ce)預(yu)警(jing)工作。加(jia)強氣(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)數據計(ji)算能力(li)和(he)(he)移動(dong)氣(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)應急(ji)監測(ce)(ce)預(yu)警(jing)系(xi)統(tong)建(jian)(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)，建(jian)(jian)(jian)立網格化(hua)、分災(zai)(zai)(zai)種的氣(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)預(yu)報(bao)預(yu)警(jing)業(ye)務(wu)系(xi)統(tong)，提高(gao)重大(da)氣(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)災(zai)(zai)(zai)害(hai)(hai)的預(yu)報(bao)準確(que)率和(he)(he)精(jing)細(xi)化(hua)水平，增強突發(fa)公共事件的應急(ji)預(yu)警(jing)能力(li)。各地(di)在建(jian)(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)災(zai)(zai)(zai)害(hai)(hai)防御設(she)(she)施、水利(li)設(she)(she)施、大(da)橋、標準化(hua)漁(yu)港、大(da)型工程等基礎設(she)(she)施時，要(yao)統(tong)籌考慮氣(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)災(zai)(zai)(zai)害(hai)(hai)監測(ce)(ce)預(yu)警(jing)設(she)(she)施建(jian)(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)。

（二）加(jia)快(kuai)(kuai)氣(qi)(qi)象(xiang)災(zai)害(hai)預(yu)(yu)警(jing)信(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)(xi)(xi)、接(jie)收(shou)系統建(jian)設(she)。各(ge)(ge)級政府和(he)有關部(bu)門要(yao)進一步加(jia)強氣(qi)(qi)象(xiang)災(zai)害(hai)預(yu)(yu)警(jing)信(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)(xi)(xi)工(gong)作(zuo)，規范氣(qi)(qi)象(xiang)信(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)(xi)(xi)的(de)(de)與傳(chuan)播，拓展氣(qi)(qi)象(xiang)預(yu)(yu)報(bao)信(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)(xi)(xi)系統功能，建(jian)立覆蓋面廣、響應(ying)及時(shi)的(de)(de)氣(qi)(qi)象(xiang)災(zai)害(hai)預(yu)(yu)警(jing)信(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)(xi)(xi)體系。完(wan)善緊急異常氣(qi)(qi)象(xiang)短(duan)信(xin)(xin)(xin)服務平臺，充(chong)分發(fa)揮(hui)社(she)會(hui)(hui)公(gong)共媒體、有關部(bu)門和(he)行業內部(bu)信(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)(xi)(xi)渠道的(de)(de)作(zuo)用(yong)，及時(shi)各(ge)(ge)類(lei)氣(qi)(qi)象(xiang)災(zai)害(hai)預(yu)(yu)報(bao)預(yu)(yu)警(jing)信(xin)(xin)(xin)號(hao)和(he)簡明的(de)(de)防災(zai)避災(zai)方法。要(yao)加(jia)快(kuai)(kuai)**氣(qi)(qi)象(xiang)影視中心建(jian)設(she)和(he)**海(hai)洋氣(qi)(qi)象(xiang)廣播電(dian)(dian)臺的(de)(de)升級改造，準確、快(kuai)(kuai)速(su)、全面地(di)向(xiang)(xiang)公(gong)眾和(he)海(hai)上(shang)作(zuo)業船只(zhi)各(ge)(ge)類(lei)氣(qi)(qi)象(xiang)災(zai)害(hai)預(yu)(yu)警(jing)預(yu)(yu)報(bao)信(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)(xi)(xi)。各(ge)(ge)地(di)、各(ge)(ge)部(bu)門要(yao)加(jia)強氣(qi)(qi)象(xiang)預(yu)(yu)警(jing)信(xin)(xin)(xin)號(hao)燈塔、氣(qi)(qi)象(xiang)警(jing)報(bao)系統、氣(qi)(qi)象(xiang)電(dian)(dian)子顯示屏(ping)等(deng)氣(qi)(qi)象(xiang)災(zai)害(hai)預(yu)(yu)警(jing)信(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)(xi)(xi)接(jie)收(shou)設(she)施(shi)(shi)建(jian)設(she)。要(yao)擴大公(gong)眾手機(ji)氣(qi)(qi)象(xiang)災(zai)害(hai)預(yu)(yu)警(jing)短(duan)信(xin)(xin)(xin)傳(chuan)播范圍，建(jian)立鄉鎮（街(jie)道）、村(cun)（社(she)區）委會(hui)(hui)和(he)敏感行業（單位）氣(qi)(qi)象(xiang)預(yu)(yu)警(jing)信(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)(xi)(xi)接(jie)收(shou)機(ji)制，確保手機(ji)、聲訊電(dian)(dian)話、網(wang)絡、廣播電(dian)(dian)視等(deng)傳(chuan)播通道的(de)(de)暢通。機(ji)場、車(che)站、碼(ma)頭、學校(xiao)、旅游景點等(deng)公(gong)共場所的(de)(de)管理單位，應(ying)設(she)立電(dian)(dian)子顯示屏(ping)等(deng)設(she)施(shi)(shi)，及時(shi)向(xiang)(xiang)公(gong)眾提(ti)示災(zai)害(hai)性(xing)天氣(qi)(qi)警(jing)報(bao)信(xin)(xin)(xin)息(xi)(xi)(xi)。

二、進(jin)一步(bu)增強氣象災害應(ying)急防范能力

（一(yi)）完善(shan)氣象(xiang)災(zai)(zai)(zai)害(hai)(hai)應(ying)急預(yu)(yu)(yu)案。各級政府要制訂和完善(shan)臺(tai)風、暴雨、雷電、高(gao)溫熱浪、干旱、大風、大霧等(deng)氣象(xiang)災(zai)(zai)(zai)害(hai)(hai)專(zhuan)項應(ying)急預(yu)(yu)(yu)案，建立健全“政府統一(yi)組織、部(bu)門聯動協作(zuo)、社(she)會共同(tong)響(xiang)應(ying)”的(de)氣象(xiang)災(zai)(zai)(zai)害(hai)(hai)應(ying)急響(xiang)應(ying)機制。要加強(qiang)預(yu)(yu)(yu)案的(de)動態管理，經常(chang)開展預(yu)(yu)(yu)案演練，提(ti)高(gao)預(yu)(yu)(yu)案的(de)可(ke)行(xing)性和可(ke)操作(zuo)性，理順(shun)完善(shan)部(bu)門聯動和應(ying)急處置(zhi)的(de)程序及辦法，提(ti)高(gao)處置(zhi)突發(fa)(fa)氣象(xiang)災(zai)(zai)(zai)害(hai)(hai)事件的(de)能(neng)力。各有關部(bu)門特別是氣象(xiang)災(zai)(zai)(zai)害(hai)(hai)敏感(gan)行(xing)業要積極發(fa)(fa)揮氣象(xiang)災(zai)(zai)(zai)害(hai)(hai)監測預(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)信息作(zuo)用，加強(qiang)氣象(xiang)災(zai)(zai)(zai)害(hai)(hai)及其(qi)衍(yan)生災(zai)(zai)(zai)害(hai)(hai)的(de)防范應(ying)對(dui)工作(zuo)。

（二）加(jia)強(qiang)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)災(zai)害(hai)普查和防御(yu)規劃(hua)工作(zuo)。各級政府要(yao)組織有關(guan)部門認真開(kai)(kai)展(zhan)(zhan)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)災(zai)害(hai)普查和重點(dian)(dian)區(qu)域、公共場(chang)(chang)所、人群密(mi)集場(chang)(chang)所的災(zai)害(hai)隱患排查，制(zhi)定(ding)整改計劃(hua)，落實整改責任(ren)和措(cuo)施，并建(jian)立氣(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)災(zai)害(hai)信息管理(li)系統。開(kai)(kai)展(zhan)(zhan)各類(lei)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)災(zai)害(hai)的風(feng)險區(qu)劃(hua)和重大(da)建(jian)設項目(mu)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)災(zai)害(hai)風(feng)險評估。要(yao)結合(he)當地(di)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)災(zai)害(hai)特(te)點(dian)(dian)，編(bian)制(zhi)和實施以臺風(feng)、暴雨、大(da)風(feng)為重點(dian)(dian)的氣(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)災(zai)害(hai)防御(yu)規劃(hua)，加(jia)快(kuai)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)災(zai)害(hai)防范應急基礎工程建(jian)設。

（三）積極推(tui)進氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)候(hou)可行性論(lun)證(zheng)。各(ge)級政府要針對(dui)臺(tai)風、風暴(bao)潮、雷電(dian)、地質災(zai)害(hai)(hai)(hai)等災(zai)害(hai)(hai)(hai)強(qiang)度增加、損(sun)失加重的(de)(de)(de)實際(ji)情(qing)況，提(ti)升防(fang)(fang)風、防(fang)(fang)洪、防(fang)(fang)浪(lang)、防(fang)(fang)雷、防(fang)(fang)滑坡(po)工(gong)程(cheng)建(jian)設(she)標準，切實提(ti)高氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)災(zai)害(hai)(hai)(hai)的(de)(de)(de)綜(zong)合防(fang)(fang)御能(neng)力。各(ge)級氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)主(zhu)管(guan)部(bu)(bu)門要依(yi)法開展對(dui)城市規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)、重大基(ji)礎設(she)施(shi)工(gong)程(cheng)建(jian)設(she)、重點領域或區域發(fa)展建(jian)設(she)規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)的(de)(de)(de)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)候(hou)可行性論(lun)證(zheng)和(he)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)災(zai)害(hai)(hai)(hai)風險(xian)評(ping)估(gu)。城建(jian)部(bu)(bu)門要聯合氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)部(bu)(bu)門，建(jian)立氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)災(zai)害(hai)(hai)(hai)風險(xian)評(ping)估(gu)機制。在編制城鄉規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)、有(you)關(guan)專(zhuan)項規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)和(he)審(shen)(shen)批(pi)重大工(gong)程(cheng)建(jian)設(she)項目時進行氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)災(zai)害(hai)(hai)(hai)風險(xian)評(ping)估(gu)，并(bing)將(jiang)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)主(zhu)管(guan)部(bu)(bu)門審(shen)(shen)核批(pi)準的(de)(de)(de)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)災(zai)害(hai)(hai)(hai)風險(xian)評(ping)估(gu)報(bao)告作為可行性研究報(bao)告的(de)(de)(de)組成(cheng)部(bu)(bu)分(fen)，以避免(mian)和(he)減少(shao)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)災(zai)害(hai)(hai)(hai)、氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)候(hou)變(bian)化(hua)對(dui)重要設(she)施(shi)和(he)工(gong)程(cheng)項目的(de)(de)(de)影響。

（四）切實加(jia)(jia)強(qiang)(qiang)(qiang)雷(lei)(lei)電災(zai)害防(fang)(fang)御工(gong)(gong)作。各級政府要建立完(wan)善(shan)防(fang)(fang)雷(lei)(lei)減災(zai)管理工(gong)(gong)作體系，加(jia)(jia)強(qiang)(qiang)(qiang)防(fang)(fang)雷(lei)(lei)設施(shi)建設，嚴格落實防(fang)(fang)雷(lei)(lei)裝(zhuang)置定期(qi)檢(jian)測(ce)(ce)、設計審核和竣工(gong)(gong)驗收制(zhi)度。建設單位應當依法(fa)安裝(zhuang)建（構）筑物的雷(lei)(lei)電防(fang)(fang)御設施(shi)。氣象部門要加(jia)(jia)強(qiang)(qiang)(qiang)雷(lei)(lei)電災(zai)害防(fang)(fang)御工(gong)(gong)作的組(zu)織管理，加(jia)(jia)強(qiang)(qiang)(qiang)檢(jian)測(ce)(ce)，加(jia)(jia)強(qiang)(qiang)(qiang)對重(zhong)點工(gong)(gong)程、危化物品生產儲(chu)存場(chang)所及人員密集的公共場(chang)所等建設項目的雷(lei)(lei)擊風(feng)險評(ping)估。強(qiang)(qiang)(qiang)化漁農村防(fang)(fang)雷(lei)(lei)減災(zai)工(gong)(gong)作，建立和完(wan)善(shan)漁農村建筑的防(fang)(fang)雷(lei)(lei)技術規范。

（五）提高人(ren)工影響(xiang)天氣作(zuo)(zuo)業(ye)水平(ping)。各級政府要(yao)(yao)加強組織領導，建立人(ren)工影響(xiang)天氣火箭作(zuo)(zuo)業(ye)體系，落實相應的經費、編(bian)制(zhi)。要(yao)(yao)加強人(ren)工影響(xiang)天氣作(zuo)(zuo)業(ye)裝(zhuang)備和隊(dui)伍建設，完善作(zuo)(zuo)業(ye)規范和操作(zuo)(zuo)規程。要(yao)(yao)充分發揮(hui)人(ren)工增(zeng)雨在(zai)防災(zai)減災(zai)、干旱、水資源短缺(que)和生態建設中(zhong)的重要(yao)(yao)作(zuo)(zuo)用。

三、進一步建立健全(quan)氣象災害防御的保障(zhang)體系

（一(yi)）建(jian)(jian)立(li)健全基層氣(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)災害(hai)(hai)(hai)防(fang)御(yu)組織(zhi)體系(xi)(xi)。各級政府和(he)有(you)(you)關部門要(yao)(yao)(yao)進一(yi)步加強(qiang)防(fang)汛(xun)抗旱(han)、防(fang)雷、人(ren)工(gong)增雨、災害(hai)(hai)(hai)救(jiu)助等(deng)各類(lei)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)災害(hai)(hai)(hai)應急(ji)(ji)救(jiu)援綜(zong)合隊伍(wu)(wu)和(he)專家隊伍(wu)(wu)建(jian)(jian)設(she)，完(wan)善氣(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)災害(hai)(hai)(hai)防(fang)御(yu)技術(shu)裝備，提高隊伍(wu)(wu)素質，不(bu)斷增強(qiang)應對(dui)各類(lei)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)災害(hai)(hai)(hai)的(de)(de)能(neng)力。學校(xiao)、醫院、車站、碼頭、體育場館等(deng)公共場所要(yao)(yao)(yao)明(ming)(ming)確(que)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)災害(hai)(hai)(hai)應急(ji)(ji)聯系(xi)(xi)人(ren)，確(que)保(bao)能(neng)夠及時準確(que)地接(jie)收和(he)傳播氣(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)災害(hai)(hai)(hai)預警信息，組織(zhi)采取應急(ji)(ji)處置措施(shi)。各鄉(xiang)鎮要(yao)(yao)(yao)明(ming)(ming)確(que)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)災害(hai)(hai)(hai)防(fang)御(yu)工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)的(de)(de)分管(guan)領(ling)導，設(she)立(li)鄉(xiang)鎮（街(jie)道）、村(cun)（社(she)區）氣(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)協理(li)員，有(you)(you)條件的(de)(de)鄉(xiang)鎮政府和(he)街(jie)道要(yao)(yao)(yao)設(she)立(li)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)災害(hai)(hai)(hai)應急(ji)(ji)管(guan)理(li)工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)站，做好(hao)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)災害(hai)(hai)(hai)預警信息及時傳遞和(he)幫助群眾(zhong)轉移等(deng)防(fang)災避災工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)。要(yao)(yao)(yao)積(ji)極推進氣(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)災害(hai)(hai)(hai)防(fang)御(yu)志愿(yuan)者隊伍(wu)(wu)建(jian)(jian)設(she)。

（二）增強(qiang)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)災(zai)(zai)害(hai)防御(yu)科技(ji)(ji)(ji)支(zhi)撐能力(li)。加快(kuai)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)科技(ji)(ji)(ji)創(chuang)新(xin)體(ti)系(xi)(xi)建設(she)(she)，增強(qiang)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)自主創(chuang)新(xin)能力(li)，積極引進高性能計算機系(xi)(xi)統、中小(xiao)尺度預報(bao)模式，推(tui)進氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)開(kai)放實驗室、氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)科技(ji)(ji)(ji)基礎(chu)條(tiao)件平臺等建設(she)(she)。高度重視氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)災(zai)(zai)害(hai)防御(yu)和氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)候變(bian)化應(ying)對(dui)(dui)的(de)科研(yan)工作，不(bu)(bu)斷加大氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)災(zai)(zai)害(hai)防御(yu)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)研(yan)究的(de)投入。加強(qiang)相關(guan)部門、科研(yan)院(yuan)所、大專(zhuan)院(yuan)校的(de)合作，圍(wei)繞臺風、旱澇、暴雨等氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)災(zai)(zai)害(hai)防御(yu)的(de)關(guan)鍵、共(gong)性技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)難(nan)題組織科技(ji)(ji)(ji)公(gong)關(guan)，加快(kuai)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)科技(ji)(ji)(ji)成果的(de)應(ying)用推(tui)廣。加強(qiang)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)災(zai)(zai)害(hai)防御(yu)科技(ji)(ji)(ji)人才隊伍建設(she)(she)，不(bu)(bu)斷增強(qiang)科技(ji)(ji)(ji)對(dui)(dui)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)災(zai)(zai)害(hai)防御(yu)的(de)支(zhi)撐能力(li)。

（三）加快推進氣(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)災害(hai)防(fang)御(yu)法制(zhi)化、標準(zhun)化建(jian)設。各(ge)級政府要(yao)組織有關部(bu)門(men)(men)(men)建(jian)立和完善氣(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)災害(hai)防(fang)御(yu)管理規(gui)章、辦法，健全氣(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)災害(hai)以及防(fang)御(yu)技術(shu)標準(zhun)和規(gui)范，加強重要(yao)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)設施的統籌規(gui)劃。氣(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)主管部(bu)門(men)(men)(men)要(yao)加強**區域(yu)內氣(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)探測(ce)活動的監督、管理，各(ge)有關部(bu)門(men)(men)(men)和單位(wei)應將各(ge)類氣(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)探測(ce)設施納入(ru)全市氣(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)觀測(ce)網絡總(zong)體布局，要(yao)嚴格按(an)照氣(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)技術(shu)標準(zhun)及規(gui)章程(cheng)序從(cong)事氣(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)業務活動，并(bing)按(an)規(gui)定向(xiang)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)部(bu)門(men)(men)(men)匯交所(suo)獲(huo)得的氣(qi)(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)探測(ce)資料。

（四）加大(da)氣(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)災(zai)(zai)害(hai)(hai)防(fang)御資金投(tou)入(ru)(ru)力度(du)(du)。各(ge)級政府要建立持續(xu)增長(chang)的(de)氣(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)災(zai)(zai)害(hai)(hai)監測(ce)預警投(tou)入(ru)(ru)機制，并把所需(xu)資金列入(ru)(ru)年度(du)(du)預算。（下(xia)轉第20頁）（上接第50頁）要落實氣(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)重點工程(cheng)建設(she)(she)和運行(xing)經費(fei)，進一步加大(da)對氣(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)災(zai)(zai)害(hai)(hai)監測(ce)預警、信息、應急(ji)指揮、氣(qi)(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)基礎設(she)(she)施建設(she)(she)、防(fang)災(zai)(zai)減災(zai)(zai)工程(cheng)等重大(da)項(xiang)目的(de)投(tou)入(ru)(ru)力度(du)(du)。

四(si)、進(jin)一(yi)步(bu)加強(qiang)氣(qi)象災害防御工作(zuo)的組(zu)織領導(dao)和宣傳(chuan)教育

(一)全面落實氣(qi)象(xiang)災(zai)害(hai)(hai)防(fang)御(yu)工(gong)作責(ze)任(ren)制。各級(ji)政府、各有(you)關部門(men)要高度重(zhong)視氣(qi)象(xiang)災(zai)害(hai)(hai)防(fang)御(yu)工(gong)作，切(qie)實加強(qiang)領導和(he)組織(zhi)協調(diao)，建立和(he)完(wan)善氣(qi)象(xiang)災(zai)害(hai)(hai)應(ying)急處置責(ze)任(ren)制。同時(shi)，要進一步健全防(fang)災(zai)減災(zai)工(gong)作協調(diao)機制，形成政府組織(zhi)領導、部門(men)協作配合、全社(she)會共(gong)同參與防(fang)范應(ying)對氣(qi)象(xiang)災(zai)害(hai)(hai)的格局。

篇10

可靠(kao)性與風險(xian)是(shi)兩個互補概念(nian)，前者(zhe)的(de)研(yan)究(jiu)始于本(ben)世(shi)紀30～40年(nian)(nian)代(dai)，用(yong)概率(lv)論(lun)研(yan)究(jiu)機器(qi)設備(bei)的(de)維修問題；后者(zhe)的(de)研(yan)究(jiu)始于50年(nian)(nian)代(dai)，最早是(shi)由軍(jun)工生產部(bu)門(men)提出。到80年(nian)(nian)代(dai)初，可靠(kao)性和(he)風險(xian)分析理(li)論(lun)逐步形成一門(men)內容豐富、方法多樣、理(li)論(lun)體系(xi)較完整的(de)邊緣科學(xue)。

在水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)工程(cheng)中(zhong)(zhong)可靠性(xing)概(gai)念(nian)應(ying)用(yong)(yong)早于風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)，例如(ru)在水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)庫(ku)調度中(zhong)(zhong)，人們早就(jiu)用(yong)(yong)發電保證率(lv)、灌溉(gai)保證率(lv)等概(gai)念(nian)方法(fa)評價水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)庫(ku)運行(xing)策略的優(you)劣。風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)分析(xi)(xi)在70年代后(hou)期才滲透(tou)到水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)領域，并最早在美(mei)國水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)開(kai)發中(zhong)(zhong)得以應(ying)用(yong)(yong)。1984年北大(da)西(xi)洋(yang)公約組(zu)織成立(li)了ASI高(gao)級研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)所，專(zhuan)門從事水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)工程(cheng)的可靠性(xing)與風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)，并提(ti)出了水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)工程(cheng)可靠性(xing)與風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)的研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)框(kuang)架和系(xi)統理論、方法(fa)及評價指標。目前世界各國對水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)工程(cheng)中(zhong)(zhong)的風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)決策以及水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)系(xi)統運行(xing)的風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)分析(xi)(xi)都高(gao)度重(zhong)視，并開(kai)展了廣泛的研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)〔2,3〕。但作為水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)系(xi)統研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)的一(yi)個重(zhong)要(yao)分支(zhi)——水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)庫(ku)調度，其風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)概(gai)念(nian)和分析(xi)(xi)方法(fa)80年代才提(ti)出，研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)剛(gang)剛(gang)起步。

近(jin)年來國內(nei)的(de)(de)(de)許多學(xue)者對(dui)此(ci)進(jin)行了(le)(le)(le)研究〔4〕。傅湘(xiang)等用(yong)概(gai)率(lv)(lv)(lv)組合(he)方法(fa)(fa)估(gu)(gu)算(suan)(suan)了(le)(le)(le)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)下游防(fang)洪區的(de)(de)(de)洪災風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)率(lv)(lv)(lv)，用(yong)系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)方法(fa)(fa)建立(li)了(le)(le)(le)大型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)汛限(xian)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)位(wei)(wei)(wei)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)模(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)；馮(feng)平等研究了(le)(le)(le)汛限(xian)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)位(wei)(wei)(wei)對(dui)防(fang)洪和發(fa)電的(de)(de)(de)影(ying)響，通過風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)效益(yi)(yi)比(bi)較定量給出了(le)(le)(le)合(he)理(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)汛限(xian)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)位(wei)(wei)(wei)；謝崇寶(bao)等分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)了(le)(le)(le)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)防(fang)洪風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)計(ji)算(suan)(suan)中(zhong)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)文、水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)流及水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)位(wei)(wei)(wei)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)容(rong)關系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)的(de)(de)(de)不確定性(xing)，研究了(le)(le)(le)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)防(fang)洪全面風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)率(lv)(lv)(lv)模(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)應用(yong)問題；梁川以(yi)極(ji)差分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)法(fa)(fa)進(jin)行防(fang)洪調度風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評估(gu)(gu)；王(wang)本德等〔5〕建立(li)了(le)(le)(le)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)防(fang)洪實時(shi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)調度模(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)，該(gai)模(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)考(kao)慮了(le)(le)(le)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)下游防(fang)洪效益(yi)(yi)與(yu)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)兩(liang)個(ge)目標，又在論(lun)述水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)預蓄(xu)效益(yi)(yi)與(yu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)的(de)(de)(de)必要性(xing)和主要困難(nan)的(de)(de)(de)基(ji)礎上，首先提出了(le)(le)(le)一種(zhong)(zhong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)率(lv)(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)(de)計(ji)算(suan)(suan)方法(fa)(fa)，然后提出一種(zhong)(zhong)以(yi)經濟效益(yi)(yi)與(yu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)率(lv)(lv)(lv)為目標的(de)(de)(de)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)預蓄(xu)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)位(wei)(wei)(wei)模(mo)糊控制(zhi)模(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)及求解方法(fa)(fa)；田峰(feng)巍等提出了(le)(le)(le)依(yi)據典(dian)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)聯合(he)概(gai)率(lv)(lv)(lv)分(fen)(fen)布(bu)函數的(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)決策方法(fa)(fa)。李國芳和覃愛(ai)基(ji)采(cai)用(yong)頻率(lv)(lv)(lv)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)方法(fa)(fa)，對(dui)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)利工程(cheng)經濟風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)方面進(jin)行探(tan)討(tao)，得出一些有益(yi)(yi)的(de)(de)(de)結論(lun)。隨著(zhu)矩(ju)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)方法(fa)(fa)和熵(shang)理(li)(li)論(lun)的(de)(de)(de)日臻完善，可將信(xin)息熵(shang)、概(gai)率(lv)(lv)(lv)論(lun)和風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)估(gu)(gu)計(ji)結合(he)起(qi)來，建立(li)最大熵(shang)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)估(gu)(gu)計(ji)模(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)。李繼清等〔6〕采(cai)用(yong)層次分(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)方法(fa)(fa)，將水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)利工程(cheng)經濟效益(yi)(yi)系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)劃分(fen)(fen)為防(fang)洪、發(fa)電、灌溉(gai)(供水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui))效益(yi)(yi)子系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)，辯識(shi)出風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因子，通過兩(liang)種(zhong)(zhong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)組合(he)方式，建立(li)最大熵(shang)模(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)，得到系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)經濟效益(yi)(yi)的(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)特性(xing)。

2風險分析的一(yi)般方法(fa)〔5～10〕<>

2.1靜態與動態相結合的調查方法

調(diao)查方法(fa)是(shi)通過對風險(xian)主(zhu)體進行實際調(diao)查并(bing)掌握(wo)風險(xian)的有關信息。動態與靜態結(jie)合是(shi)指調(diao)查既要了(le)解(jie)主(zhu)體的現狀，又(you)要了(le)解(jie)過去，又(you)要歸納總結(jie)，預測它的未來。就水(shui)資源系(xi)統而言(yan)采(cai)用調(diao)查法(fa)對有些問題(ti)并(bing)不適宜，如(ru)水(shui)庫調(diao)度風險(xian)問題(ti)。

2.2微觀與宏觀相結合的系統方法

系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)方法(fa)是(shi)現代科(ke)學研究的(de)重(zhong)要方法(fa)。它是(shi)從系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)整體(ti)(ti)(ti)性(xing)出(chu)發，通過研究風(feng)險(xian)(xian)主體(ti)(ti)(ti)內部(bu)各方面的(de)關(guan)(guan)系(xi)(xi)(xi)、風(feng)險(xian)(xian)環(huan)境(jing)諸要素之間的(de)關(guan)(guan)系(xi)(xi)(xi)、風(feng)險(xian)(xian)主體(ti)(ti)(ti)同風(feng)險(xian)(xian)環(huan)境(jing)的(de)關(guan)(guan)系(xi)(xi)(xi)等，確定風(feng)險(xian)(xian)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)的(de)目標，建立系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)整體(ti)(ti)(ti)數學模型，求解最優風(feng)險(xian)(xian)決策，建立風(feng)險(xian)(xian)利益機制，進行風(feng)險(xian)(xian)控制和(he)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)處理。該方法(fa)適用廣泛，從理論上講(jiang)是(shi)較(jiao)科(ke)學、理想(xiang)，但應用難(nan)度(du)大。

2.3定性和定量相結合的分析方法

2.3.1定性風(feng)(feng)險分(fen)析方(fang)法定性風(feng)(feng)險分(fen)析方(fang)法主(zhu)要(yao)用于風(feng)(feng)險可測度(du)很小(xiao)的(de)風(feng)(feng)險主(zhu)體。常用的(de)方(fang)法有調查(cha)法、矩陣分(fen)析法和(he)德(de)爾(er)菲法。德(de)爾(er)菲法是美國咨詢機(ji)構蘭(lan)德(de)公司首先(xian)提出，主(zhu)要(yao)是借助于有關專家的(de)知(zhi)識、經驗和(he)判(pan)斷來對(dui)風(feng)(feng)險加以估計(ji)和(he)分(fen)析。在(zai)水資源系統中有些不確定性因(yin)素難以分(fen)析、計(ji)算(suan)，因(yin)此該(gai)法在(zai)水庫調度(du)風(feng)(feng)險決策(ce)中具有實(shi)用價值。

2.3.2定(ding)(ding)量(liang)風險(xian)分析(xi)方法定(ding)(ding)量(liang)風險(xian)分析(xi)方法是借助數(shu)學工具(ju)研究風險(xian)主體(ti)中(zhong)的數(shu)量(liang)特(te)征關系和變化，確(que)定(ding)(ding)其(qi)風險(xian)率(或度(du))。

（1）基于概率論與數理統計的風險分析方(fang)法

概率論與數(shu)理(li)統計(ji)是研究水庫(ku)調(diao)度中可靠(kao)性與風險(xian)率的(de)最為(wei)有力的(de)工(gong)具，如過(guo)去對(dui)水庫(ku)運行的(de)發電保證(zheng)率和(he)灌溉保證(zheng)率等的(de)計(ji)算均是建立在該基礎上的(de)。該基礎理(li)論和(he)方法也適(shi)宜于解(jie)決風險(xian)率的(de)計(ji)算。

根(gen)據水庫調度中風險的特點，以下介紹4種方(fang)法：

①采用典型(xing)概率分布函數計算(suan)風險率

在水庫調度(du)(du)中，影響風(feng)險(xian)主體(ti)的(de)(de)不確(que)定性風(feng)險(xian)變量(或隨機(ji)變量)大都服(fu)從一些(xie)典(dian)型的(de)(de)概(gai)率(lv)分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)，如三角形(xing)分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)、威布(bu)爾分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)、正態分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)、高(gao)斯(si)分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)、伽瑪(ma)分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)、皮爾遜Ⅲ型分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)等。因此(ci)用(yong)概(gai)率(lv)分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)密(mi)度(du)(du)函數的(de)(de)積分(fen)(fen)(fen)便可分(fen)(fen)(fen)析計(ji)算(suan)決(jue)策指標(biao)獲取(qu)的(de)(de)可靠率(lv)或風(feng)險(xian)率(lv)指標(biao)，該法計(ji)算(suan)簡單且精度(du)(du)也可基本滿足要求(qiu)。

②依(yi)據貝葉斯原(yuan)理計(ji)算風險率

設(she)B1、B2、…、Bn是一組互斥的完備事(shi)(shi)件集，即Bi互不(bu)相容，則有(you)(you)∑Bi=Ω,又設(she)P(Bi)>0,則對任(ren)一事(shi)(shi)件A，設(she)P(A)>0，則有(you)(you)：

P

式中(zhong)，P(Bi)為(wei)先驗概(gai)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(已(yi)(yi)知)或事前概(gai)率(lv)(lv)(lv)；P(A/Bi)是與(yu)先驗概(gai)率(lv)(lv)(lv)相關(guan)的(de)條(tiao)件概(gai)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(已(yi)(yi)知)；P(Bi/A)是事件A發(fa)生的(de)條(tiao)件下，引起Bi發(fa)生的(de)概(gai)率(lv)(lv)(lv)，為(wei)后驗概(gai)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(未知)。

在(zai)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)庫(ku)調度(du)中當(dang)Bi為水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)庫(ku)放(fang)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)，A為影(ying)響水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)庫(ku)放(fang)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)的(de)入庫(ku)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)量(liang)(liang)和庫(ku)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)位，則P(Bi/A)為水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)庫(ku)在(zai)已知入庫(ku)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)量(liang)(liang)和庫(ku)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)位的(de)條件(jian)下(xia)，水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)庫(ku)放(fang)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)的(de)概(gai)率。同理(li)，可對水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)庫(ku)放(fang)水(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)的(de)風險率進行計(ji)算(suan)。

③風險度分析法

用概率(lv)分布(bu)的(de)數(shu)學特(te)征如標(biao)準(zhun)差σ或σ-半標(biao)準(zhun)差，可(ke)說明風險的(de)大小。σ或σ-越(yue)大則風險越(yue)大，反之越(yue)小。因(yin)為(wei)概率(lv)分布(bu)越(yue)分散(san)，實(shi)際結(jie)果遠離期望值的(de)概率(lv)就(jiu)越(yue)大。

σ=(DX)1/2=((Xi-MX)2/(n-1))1/2或σ-=(DX)1/2=((Xi-MX)2P(Xi))1/2

σ是僅統計Xi<MX或(huo)Xi>MX。用(yong)σ、σ-比(bi)較風險(xian)大小(xiao)雖然簡單(dan)，概(gai)念明確(que)，但σ-為(wei)某一物理量的(de)絕對(dui)量，當(dang)兩個比(bi)較方案(an)的(de)期(qi)望值相(xiang)差很(hen)大時(shi)可比(bi)性差，同時(shi)比(bi)較結果(guo)可能不準(zhun)(zhun)確(que)。為(wei)了克服用(yong)σ-可比(bi)性差的(de)不足(zu)，可用(yong)其相(xiang)對(dui)量作為(wei)比(bi)較參數，該相(xiang)對(dui)量定義為(wei)風險(xian)度FDi，即(ji)標準(zhun)(zhun)差與期(qi)望值的(de)比(bi)值(方差系(xi)數)：

FDi=σi/MX=σi/μi

風險(xian)度FDi越大(da),風險(xian)越大(da)，反之亦然(ran)。風險(xian)度不同于(yu)風險(xian)率(lv)，前(qian)者的(de)值可大(da)于(yu)1,而后(hou)者只能小于(yu)等于(yu)1。

④離散狀態組合法

此法(fa)(fa)的基本原理是，首(shou)先給出各風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)變(bian)(bian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)的離散型估(gu)計值；然后按照概率組合原理由這些離散的估(gu)計值來(lai)推(tui)求結(jie)果出現(xian)的大小及其可(ke)能性。該法(fa)(fa)屬窮舉的范(fan)疇，當風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)變(bian)(bian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)較(jiao)(jiao)多，且(qie)每個(ge)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)變(bian)(bian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)的離散狀(zhuang)態個(ge)數較(jiao)(jiao)多時(shi)，就(jiu)存在“維數災”。但在風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)變(bian)(bian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)個(ge)數較(jiao)(jiao)少，每個(ge)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)變(bian)(bian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)內(nei)有(you)(you)發(fa)生或不發(fa)生兩種(zhong)狀(zhuang)態即三項分布的情況下，用這種(zhong)方法(fa)(fa)分析風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)十分有(you)(you)效。

（2）基于馬爾柯夫過程的(de)風險分析法

水庫(ku)(ku)調(diao)度(du)(du)中的(de)入庫(ku)(ku)徑流(liu)過程(cheng)(cheng)一(yi)(yi)般服(fu)從于馬爾柯夫過程(cheng)(cheng)(馬氏過程(cheng)(cheng))。馬氏過程(cheng)(cheng)是(shi)一(yi)(yi)類變量之間和(he)相互關聯(lian)影響的(de)非平穩隨機過程(cheng)(cheng),其基本特性(xing)(xing)是(shi)無(wu)后效性(xing)(xing)。因此可用馬氏過程(cheng)(cheng)狀態轉移(yi)概率來(lai)推(tui)(tui)求水庫(ku)(ku)調(diao)度(du)(du)中風險(xian)變量相互影響的(de)風險(xian)率計算問題(ti)。用馬氏過程(cheng)(cheng)已成(cheng)功地(di)推(tui)(tui)求了水庫(ku)(ku)調(diao)度(du)(du)方案的(de)發電可靠率(保(bao)證率)。

（3）蒙特(te)卡洛模擬(ni)法（MC法）

此法(fa)(fa)(fa)是目前西方(fang)國家廣泛應用的(de)(de)(de)(de)投資風險(xian)(xian)分析(xi)方(fang)法(fa)(fa)(fa)，其(qi)基本(ben)思路是將(jiang)影(ying)響工程經濟(ji)效(xiao)果(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風險(xian)(xian)變(bian)(bian)量(liang)(liang)依各(ge)自的(de)(de)(de)(de)分析(xi)分別進行(xing)隨(sui)(sui)(sui)機取樣(yang)，然后用各(ge)變(bian)(bian)量(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)隨(sui)(sui)(sui)機值來(lai)計算(suan)(suan)經濟(ji)評(ping)價指標值，這樣(yang)對每個變(bian)(bian)量(liang)(liang)隨(sui)(sui)(sui)機地(di)取一(yi)次(ci)樣(yang)就(jiu)可以(yi)計算(suan)(suan)出經濟(ji)評(ping)價指標的(de)(de)(de)(de)一(yi)個隨(sui)(sui)(sui)機值，要作出經濟(ji)效(xiao)果(guo)評(ping)價指標與其(qi)實(shi)現(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)累(lei)積(ji)概(gai)率的(de)(de)(de)(de)關系曲線，需(xu)(xu)要多次(ci)的(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)復試驗，且(qie)隨(sui)(sui)(sui)隨(sui)(sui)(sui)機風險(xian)(xian)變(bian)(bian)量(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)多，其(qi)重(zhong)復模擬計算(suan)(suan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)次(ci)數也要增(zeng)多，需(xu)(xu)借(jie)助(zhu)計算(suan)(suan)機進行(xing)計算(suan)(suan)。另外，這種方(fang)法(fa)(fa)(fa)難(nan)以(yi)解決各(ge)個風險(xian)(xian)變(bian)(bian)量(liang)(liang)之間的(de)(de)(de)(de)相(xiang)互影(ying)響，且(qie)要求給出各(ge)個風險(xian)(xian)變(bian)(bian)量(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)概(gai)率分布曲線，在統計數據不足時(shi)難(nan)以(yi)實(shi)現(xian)。MC法(fa)(fa)(fa)可以(yi)考慮(lv)隨(sui)(sui)(sui)機變(bian)(bian)量(liang)(liang)各(ge)影(ying)響因素(su)，但計算(suan)(suan)量(liang)(liang)大且(qie)結(jie)果(guo)未必一(yi)定精確。所以(yi)，在有其(qi)它簡單方(fang)法(fa)(fa)(fa)時(shi)，一(yi)般都避免使用MC法(fa)(fa)(fa)，或(huo)以(yi)此法(fa)(fa)(fa)作為一(yi)種對照。

（4）模(mo)糊數學風險(xian)分析法

水庫(ku)調度中的不(bu)確(que)定性因素(su)很(hen)多，如徑流、用水、庫(ku)水位(wei)變化等，常模糊(hu)不(bu)清(qing)，具有明顯的模糊(hu)現象(xiang)和特征(zheng)，因而用模糊(hu)數學進行風險分(fen)析是非常適宜的。

（5）一階二次矩法(fa)

此法的(de)(de)步驟是先選擇一理論分(fen)布(bu)族(zu)g(y)=g(y,θ)來逼近(jin)Z=f(X1,X2,…,Xn)的(de)(de)概率分(fen)布(bu)，然后(hou)用泰勒公式將(jiang)Z在(X1,X2,…,Xn)的(de)(de)均值(μ1,μ2,…,μn)處展(zhan)開，舍去二次以上(shang)的(de)(de)高階項，這樣近(jin)似求得的(de)(de)二階矩，進而估計參(can)數(shu)。

一階二(er)次矩法未考慮有(you)關基本變量(liang)分布類型的信息，因此不(bu)能用概率指標合(he)理反映結構的可靠度(du)，實際上變量(liang)的分布類型對可靠度(du)是有(you)影響的。本法只適(shi)用于線性(xing)方(fang)程(cheng)(cheng)，當狀態方(fang)程(cheng)(cheng)為非線性(xing)時，在中心點處(chu)取線性(xing)近似(si)，因此可靠度(du)指標是近似(si)的。由于狀態方(fang)程(cheng)(cheng)在描述一個問題時，因方(fang)程(cheng)(cheng)形式不(bu)同，其(qi)可靠度(du)指標的近似(si)值也不(bu)同，無法保持不(bu)變性(xing)是該方(fang)法的最(zui)大弱點。

（6）極限狀態(tai)法（JC法）

JC法(fa)是一階(jie)二次矩法(fa)的(de)(de)改(gai)進，該法(fa)適用(yong)于(yu)隨機(ji)變(bian)量(liang)為(wei)任意分(fen)布的(de)(de)情況。其(qi)基本原(yuan)理是：先將隨機(ji)變(bian)量(liang)的(de)(de)非正(zheng)態分(fen)布用(yong)正(zheng)態分(fen)布代替，對(dui)于(yu)此正(zheng)態分(fen)布函數(shu)要(yao)求(qiu)在驗算(suan)點處的(de)(de)累計概率(lv)分(fen)布函數(shu)(CDF)值(zhi)和概率(lv)密度函數(shu)(PDF)值(zhi)與原(yuan)來分(fen)布函數(shu)的(de)(de)CDF值(zhi)和PDF值(zhi)相同。然后(hou)根據這兩個條(tiao)件(jian)求(qiu)得等效(xiao)正(zheng)態分(fen)布的(de)(de)均值(zhi)和標準(zhun)差，最后(hou)用(yong)一階(jie)二次矩法(fa)求(qiu)出風險值(zhi)。

（7）最大熵法

最(zui)大(da)熵(shang)(shang)法的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)基礎是信息熵(shang)(shang)，此熵(shang)(shang)定(ding)義(yi)為(wei)信息的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)均值，它(ta)是對整個(ge)范(fan)圍內隨(sui)機變量(liang)不(bu)確(que)(que)定(ding)性(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)量(liang)度。信息論(lun)中信息量(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)出發點是把獲得(de)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)信息作為(wei)消除不(bu)確(que)(que)定(ding)性(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)測度，而不(bu)確(que)(que)定(ding)性(xing)可(ke)用(yong)概(gai)率(lv)分(fen)布(bu)(bu)函數描述，這就將信息熵(shang)(shang)和(he)廣(guang)泛應用(yong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)概(gai)率(lv)論(lun)方法相(xiang)聯系；又因(yin)風險估計(ji)實質上就是求(qiu)風險因(yin)素的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)概(gai)率(lv)分(fen)布(bu)(bu)，因(yin)而可(ke)以將信息熵(shang)(shang)、風險估計(ji)和(he)概(gai)率(lv)論(lun)方法有機地聯系起來，建(jian)立最(zui)大(da)熵(shang)(shang)風險估計(ji)模型：先驗信息(已知數據)構成求(qiu)極值問題的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)約束條件，最(zui)大(da)熵(shang)(shang)準則得(de)到隨(sui)機變量(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)概(gai)率(lv)分(fen)布(bu)(bu)。

應用最(zui)大熵(shang)準則構造先驗概率分(fen)布有如下優點：①最(zui)大熵(shang)的(de)(de)解是(shi)最(zui)超然(ran)的(de)(de)，即在數據不充分(fen)的(de)(de)情況下求(qiu)解，解必須和已知的(de)(de)數據相吻合，而(er)又必須對未(wei)來的(de)(de)部分(fen)做最(zui)少的(de)(de)假定；②根(gen)據熵(shang)的(de)(de)集中原理，絕大部分(fen)可能(neng)狀(zhuang)態都集中在最(zui)大熵(shang)狀(zhuang)態附近，其預測是(shi)相當(dang)準確的(de)(de)；③用最(zui)大熵(shang)求(qiu)得的(de)(de)解滿足一致性要求(qiu)，不確定性的(de)(de)測度（熵(shang)）與試驗步驟無關(guan)。

最大(da)熵(shang)法的(de)計算(suan)量小于蒙特卡(ka)洛法，需要進行許多數學推導，計算(suan)較復雜，所以通常只應用在(zai)大(da)型工程項目的(de)風險分析中。

3結語

目前，風險分析的(de)(de)方(fang)法已有(you)多種，它們(men)在考(kao)慮因素、輸入信息、計算量以及適(shi)用對(dui)象上各有(you)不(bu)同，進行汛期(qi)水(shui)庫調(diao)度(du)風險分析時，應結合本領(ling)域本地(di)區的(de)(de)具(ju)體(ti)情(qing)況、特點，比較和(he)改進現有(you)的(de)(de)方(fang)法。洪水(shui)調(diao)度(du)系(xi)統是一個開放的(de)(de)系(xi)統，本身(shen)具(ju)有(you)復(fu)雜性(xing)，因而還要積極拓(tuo)展(zhan)其他新理論新方(fang)法的(de)(de)研究。

參考文獻

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