本(ben)文作者：解春艷朱紅根工作單位(wei)：江(jiang)西(xi)農業大學(xue)

（一）中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)—東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)總(zong)額(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)從(cong)(cong)圖1可(ke)知，2000年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)與(yu)(yu)(yu)東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)總(zong)額(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)為(wei)395．22億(yi)美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)，隨著(zhu)2002年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)《中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)與(yu)(yu)(yu)東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)全(quan)面經濟合作框架協(xie)議》的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)簽署，關稅(shui)(shui)和非關稅(shui)(shui)壁壘削減，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)與(yu)(yu)(yu)東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)規模迅速擴大(da)(da)，該(gai)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)總(zong)額(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)到(dao)547．81億(yi)美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)，其(qi)后(hou)隨著(zhu)2004年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)實施(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)“早(zao)期收獲(huo)計(ji)劃”和簽訂的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)《貨物貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)協(xie)議》以及(ji)2007年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)簽署的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)《服務貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)協(xie)議》，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)與(yu)(yu)(yu)東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)總(zong)額(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)2007年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)達到(dao)了(le)(le)2025．33億(yi)美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)，但由(you)于(yu)(yu)受2008年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)底國(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)金(jin)(jin)融危(wei)(wei)機(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影響，2009年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)與(yu)(yu)(yu)東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)總(zong)額(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)相(xiang)比(bi)(bi)于(yu)(yu)2008年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)有(you)所(suo)(suo)下(xia)降。從(cong)(cong)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)－東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)地位來看(kan)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)－東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)額(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)占(zhan)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)對(dui)(dui)(dui)外(wai)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)總(zong)額(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)比(bi)(bi)例呈(cheng)波動(dong)性上升(sheng)趨(qu)勢，由(you)2000年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)8．33％上升(sheng)至2009年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)9．65％。圖1中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)與(yu)(yu)(yu)東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)總(zong)額(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)及(ji)所(suo)(suo)占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)例資(zi)料來源(yuan)：根據《中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)統計(ji)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)鑒》相(xiang)關數據計(ji)算統計(ji)得(de)(de)到(dao)（二）中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)－東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)結構(gou)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)從(cong)(cong)圖2可(ke)知，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)對(dui)(dui)(dui)東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)出口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)額(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)從(cong)(cong)2000年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)173．41億(yi)美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)至2008年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)1143．17億(yi)美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)，增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)了(le)(le)5．59倍，由(you)于(yu)(yu)受國(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)金(jin)(jin)融危(wei)(wei)機(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影響，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)對(dui)(dui)(dui)東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)出口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)額(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)2009年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)有(you)所(suo)(suo)下(xia)降，為(wei)1062．57億(yi)美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)對(dui)(dui)(dui)東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)出口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)額(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)占(zhan)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)對(dui)(dui)(dui)外(wai)總(zong)出口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)額(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)比(bi)(bi)重呈(cheng)穩步上升(sheng)，由(you)2000年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)6．96％上升(sheng)至2009年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)8．84％。從(cong)(cong)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)對(dui)(dui)(dui)東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)進(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)額(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)來看(kan)，2000年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)對(dui)(dui)(dui)東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)進(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)額(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)僅為(wei)221．81億(yi)美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)，2008年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)則增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)到(dao)1170．03億(yi)美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)，與(yu)(yu)(yu)2000年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)相(xiang)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)了(le)(le)4．27倍。從(cong)(cong)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)對(dui)(dui)(dui)東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)進(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)額(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)占(zhan)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)總(zong)進(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)額(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)比(bi)(bi)例來看(kan)，從(cong)(cong)2000年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)9．85％逐年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)遞增(zeng)(zeng)至2003年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)11．47％，其(qi)后(hou)4年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)呈(cheng)相(xiang)對(dui)(dui)(dui)平穩狀態，到(dao)2008年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)有(you)所(suo)(suo)下(xia)降。圖2中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)對(dui)(dui)(dui)東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)各國(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)出口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)總(zong)額(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)和進(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)總(zong)額(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)及(ji)所(suo)(suo)占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)例資(zi)料來源(yuan)：根據《中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)統計(ji)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)鑒》相(xiang)關數據統計(ji)得(de)(de)到(dao)（三）中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)－東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)區(qu)域(yu)差異分(fen)(fen)析(xi)從(cong)(cong)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)與(yu)(yu)(yu)東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)10個國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)區(qu)域(yu)差異來看(kan)（見表1），馬(ma)來西(xi)亞(ya)和新(xin)加(jia)坡是與(yu)(yu)(yu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)量最大(da)(da)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)兩個國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)，并且從(cong)(cong)2000年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)到(dao)2009年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)與(yu)(yu)(yu)這兩國(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)額(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)呈(cheng)逐年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)遞增(zeng)(zeng)趨(qu)勢，特別是2004年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)后(hou)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)幅(fu)度較大(da)(da)。其(qi)次是泰國(guo)(guo)(guo)、印度尼西(xi)亞(ya)和菲律賓，與(yu)(yu)(yu)馬(ma)來西(xi)亞(ya)與(yu)(yu)(yu)新(xin)加(jia)坡相(xiang)比(bi)(bi)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)與(yu)(yu)(yu)其(qi)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)量相(xiang)對(dui)(dui)(dui)較少。緬甸、柬埔寨、文萊(lai)和老撾(zhua)等這些國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)與(yu)(yu)(yu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)量較小(xiao)，但今(jin)后(hou)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)潛力較大(da)(da)。

（一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)）理論假(jia)設(she)基(ji)(ji)于(yu)(yu)(yu)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內外學(xue)(xue)者將(jiang)(jiang)引(yin)(yin)力模(mo)(mo)型(xing)(xing)應(ying)用(yong)于(yu)(yu)(yu)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)領域的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)研(yan)究成(cheng)果和(he)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)驗，對(dui)影(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)與東(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)相關(guan)因(yin)素進(jin)行理論假(jia)設(she)：1．中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)－東(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)自(zi)(zi)(zi)由(you)(you)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)區(qu)進(jin)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)化(hua)(hua)。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)—東(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)自(zi)(zi)(zi)由(you)(you)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)區(qu)自(zi)(zi)(zi)啟動(dong)(dong)以來(lai)(lai)(lai)，經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)歷了十(shi)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)，在(zai)(zai)這(zhe)十(shi)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)不斷(duan)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)進(jin)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，簽(qian)(qian)署了各(ge)(ge)(ge)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)協(xie)議(yi)(yi)(yi)，這(zhe)些(xie)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)協(xie)議(yi)(yi)(yi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)實(shi)施(shi)所(suo)帶來(lai)(lai)(lai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)關(guan)稅降(jiang)低(di)及市場(chang)開放等對(dui)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)－東(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)產生(sheng)了積(ji)極影(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)，并(bing)(bing)(bing)將(jiang)(jiang)長(chang)期(qi)促(cu)進(jin)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)。但標(biao)志(zhi)性(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)協(xie)議(yi)(yi)(yi)有(you)(you)3項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)，分(fen)別為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)2002年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)簽(qian)(qian)署《中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)－東(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)全面(mian)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟合作(zuo)框(kuang)架協(xie)議(yi)(yi)(yi)》，2004年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)實(shi)施(shi)“早期(qi)收獲計(ji)劃”和(he)簽(qian)(qian)訂(ding)《貨物貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)協(xie)議(yi)(yi)(yi)》及2007年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)簽(qian)(qian)署《服務貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)協(xie)議(yi)(yi)(yi)》。本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)文(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)用(yong)這(zhe)3個(ge)標(biao)志(zhi)性(xing)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)協(xie)議(yi)(yi)(yi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)簽(qian)(qian)訂(ding)來(lai)(lai)(lai)度量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)－東(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)自(zi)(zi)(zi)由(you)(you)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)區(qu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)進(jin)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)化(hua)(hua)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)度，并(bing)(bing)(bing)假(jia)設(she)每項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)協(xie)議(yi)(yi)(yi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)簽(qian)(qian)訂(ding)對(dui)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)都有(you)(you)正(zheng)影(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)。2．經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟規(gui)模(mo)(mo)。本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)文(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)采用(yong)GDP作(zuo)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)衡量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)指(zhi)標(biao)，一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)GDP總(zong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)反應(ying)了該國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟規(gui)模(mo)(mo)總(zong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)以及該國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)進(jin)口(kou)需(xu)求(qiu)能力和(he)出口(kou)供給能力，進(jin)而(er)(er)影(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)流量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)，并(bing)(bing)(bing)且GDP越(yue)(yue)大(da)，貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)流量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)也越(yue)(yue)大(da)。本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)文(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)假(jia)設(she)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟規(gui)模(mo)(mo)對(dui)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)－東(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)有(you)(you)正(zheng)影(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)。3．人(ren)(ren)口(kou)數(shu)(shu)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)。一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)數(shu)(shu)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)越(yue)(yue)多，意(yi)味(wei)(wei)著該國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)需(xu)求(qiu)越(yue)(yue)多，當國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內需(xu)求(qiu)無法(fa)得(de)到滿足(zu)，則需(xu)要(yao)從國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)外進(jin)口(kou)來(lai)(lai)(lai)彌補無法(fa)滿足(zu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)需(xu)求(qiu)。本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)文(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)假(jia)設(she)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)數(shu)(shu)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)對(dui)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)－東(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)有(you)(you)正(zheng)影(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)。4．地理距(ju)(ju)離(li)(li)(li)。一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)般(ban)指(zhi)兩國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)心或(huo)主要(yao)港口(kou)之(zhi)間(jian)(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)距(ju)(ju)離(li)(li)(li)，本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)文(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)選(xuan)取的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)地理距(ju)(ju)離(li)(li)(li)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)兩國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)首都之(zhi)間(jian)(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)直線距(ju)(ju)離(li)(li)(li)。兩國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)之(zhi)間(jian)(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)距(ju)(ju)離(li)(li)(li)決定(ding)了貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)運(yun)輸成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)、交易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)、時(shi)間(jian)(jian)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)大(da)小，這(zhe)些(xie)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)從而(er)(er)會影(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)增長(chang)。本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)文(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)假(jia)設(she)地理距(ju)(ju)離(li)(li)(li)對(dui)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)－東(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)有(you)(you)負影(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)。5．科(ke)學(xue)(xue)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)水(shui)平。一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)科(ke)學(xue)(xue)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)水(shui)平越(yue)(yue)高，越(yue)(yue)能促(cu)進(jin)生(sheng)產力提高，越(yue)(yue)有(you)(you)助于(yu)(yu)(yu)推動(dong)(dong)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)，該國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)在(zai)(zai)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際市場(chang)上更(geng)具(ju)競爭(zheng)優勢(shi)，國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)活動(dong)(dong)更(geng)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)活躍。本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)文(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)采用(yong)計(ji)算機擁有(you)(you)率作(zuo)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)衡量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)該國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)科(ke)學(xue)(xue)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)水(shui)平的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)指(zhi)標(biao)，并(bing)(bing)(bing)假(jia)設(she)計(ji)算機擁有(you)(you)率對(dui)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)－東(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)有(you)(you)正(zheng)影(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)。6．文(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)化(hua)(hua)距(ju)(ju)離(li)(li)(li)。一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)般(ban)情(qing)況下，如果兩國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)語言(yan)相通(tong)，文(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)化(hua)(hua)背景相近(jin)，則意(yi)味(wei)(wei)著兩國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)文(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)化(hua)(hua)距(ju)(ju)離(li)(li)(li)越(yue)(yue)近(jin)，一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)出口(kou)到另一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)商品越(yue)(yue)容易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)被(bei)接受，兩國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)間(jian)(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)流量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)也就越(yue)(yue)多。本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)文(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)采用(yong)共(gong)同(tong)(tong)語言(yan)，即貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)對(dui)象(xiang)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)否使用(yong)華語作(zuo)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)衡量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)兩國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)文(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)化(hua)(hua)距(ju)(ju)離(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)指(zhi)標(biao)，并(bing)(bing)(bing)假(jia)設(she)存(cun)在(zai)(zai)共(gong)同(tong)(tong)語言(yan)對(dui)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)有(you)(you)正(zheng)影(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)。7．共(gong)同(tong)(tong)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)界(jie)。如果兩國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)擁有(you)(you)共(gong)同(tong)(tong)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)界(jie)，一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)方面(mian)可(ke)降(jiang)低(di)運(yun)輸成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)、時(shi)間(jian)(jian)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)等；另一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)方面(mian)意(yi)味(wei)(wei)著兩國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)存(cun)在(zai)(zai)共(gong)通(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)文(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)化(hua)(hua)區(qu)域，相互之(zhi)間(jian)(jian)交流更(geng)便利，貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)更(geng)快捷。本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)文(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)假(jia)設(she)共(gong)同(tong)(tong)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)界(jie)對(dui)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)有(you)(you)正(zheng)影(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)。8．優惠貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)區(qu)。保護性(xing)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)政策是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)構(gou)成(cheng)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)巨(ju)大(da)壁(bi)壘(lei)，而(er)(er)當兩國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)同(tong)(tong)屬于(yu)(yu)(yu)一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)個(ge)優惠貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)區(qu)時(shi)，由(you)(you)于(yu)(yu)(yu)各(ge)(ge)(ge)種壁(bi)壘(lei)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)消除或(huo)削弱(ruo)，區(qu)域內各(ge)(ge)(ge)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)能夠在(zai)(zai)一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)定(ding)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)度實(shi)現自(zi)(zi)(zi)由(you)(you)流動(dong)(dong)，從而(er)(er)會促(cu)進(jin)兩國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)，對(dui)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)規(gui)模(mo)(mo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)擴(kuo)張有(you)(you)積(ji)極影(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)與東(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)各(ge)(ge)(ge)成(cheng)員(yuan)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)同(tong)(tong)處(chu)于(yu)(yu)(yu)亞洲，且同(tong)(tong)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)，因(yin)此本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)文(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)采用(yong)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)否加入(ru)亞太(tai)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟合作(zuo)組織（APEC）這(zhe)一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)共(gong)同(tong)(tong)自(zi)(zi)(zi)由(you)(you)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)區(qu)作(zuo)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)衡量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)優惠貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)區(qu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)虛擬變(bian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)，并(bing)(bing)(bing)假(jia)設(she)該變(bian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)對(dui)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)有(you)(you)正(zheng)影(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)。（二）模(mo)(mo)型(xing)(xing)構(gou)建(jian)(jian)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)文(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)基(ji)(ji)于(yu)(yu)(yu)引(yin)(yin)力模(mo)(mo)型(xing)(xing)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)Linnermann模(mo)(mo)型(xing)(xing)，并(bing)(bing)(bing)在(zai)(zai)此基(ji)(ji)礎(chu)上進(jin)行擴(kuo)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)和(he)修正(zheng)，建(jian)(jian)立包(bao)括中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)－東(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)自(zi)(zi)(zi)由(you)(you)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)區(qu)進(jin)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)化(hua)(hua)變(bian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)擴(kuo)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)引(yin)(yin)力模(mo)(mo)型(xing)(xing)，其形式可(ke)以表(biao)示(shi)(shi)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)：1nXijt＝β0＋β11n（YitYjt）＋β21n（PitPjt）＋β31n（Disij）＋β41n（Comjt）＋β5（Lanij）＋β6（Borij）＋β7（APECij）＋β8（Policy1）＋β9（Policy2）＋β10（Pol－icy3）＋μij其中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，Xijt表(biao)示(shi)(shi)在(zai)(zai)t年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)i國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)與j國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)額(e)；YitYjt表(biao)示(shi)(shi)在(zai)(zai)t年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)i國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)與j國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟規(gui)模(mo)(mo)乘(cheng)(cheng)積(ji)；PiPj表(biao)示(shi)(shi)在(zai)(zai)t年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)i國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)與j國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)數(shu)(shu)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)乘(cheng)(cheng)積(ji)；Disij表(biao)示(shi)(shi)i國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)與j國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)首都的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)直線距(ju)(ju)離(li)(li)(li)；Comjt表(biao)示(shi)(shi)在(zai)(zai)t年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)j國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)科(ke)學(xue)(xue)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)水(shui)平；Lanij為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)文(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)化(hua)(hua)距(ju)(ju)離(li)(li)(li)變(bian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)；Borij為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)共(gong)同(tong)(tong)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)界(jie)變(bian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)，APECij為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)優惠貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)區(qu)變(bian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)；Policy1、Policy2、Policy3分(fen)別表(biao)示(shi)(shi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)—東(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)自(zi)(zi)(zi)由(you)(you)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)區(qu)進(jin)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)化(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)3個(ge)重(zhong)要(yao)變(bian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)。β0是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)常數(shu)(shu)，β1、β2、β3、β4、β5、β6、β7、β8、β9、β10是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)回歸系數(shu)(shu)，μij表(biao)示(shi)(shi)隨機誤(wu)差項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)。（三）數(shu)(shu)據來(lai)(lai)(lai)源目(mu)前，東(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)成(cheng)員(yuan)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)有(you)(you)10個(ge)，其中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)柬(jian)埔寨于(yu)(yu)(yu)1999年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)最晚加入(ru)東(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)，因(yin)此本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)文(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)(wen)選(xuan)取2000－2009年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)與東(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)10個(ge)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)額(e)作(zuo)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)面(mian)板(ban)數(shu)(shu)據。雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)額(e)數(shu)(shu)據根據2000－2009年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)《中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)統(tong)計(ji)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)鑒》整理獲得(de)。GDP和(he)人(ren)(ren)口(kou)數(shu)(shu)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)來(lai)(lai)(lai)源于(yu)(yu)(yu)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際貨幣基(ji)(ji)金組織（IMF）。兩國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)之(zhi)間(jian)(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)地理距(ju)(ju)離(li)(li)(li)通(tong)過(guo)世界(jie)城市經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)緯(wei)度查詢(xun)系統(tong)（http：／／www．hjqing．com／find／jingwei／）計(ji)算獲得(de)。計(ji)算機擁有(you)(you)率來(lai)(lai)(lai)源于(yu)(yu)(yu)世界(jie)銀行（WorldBank）數(shu)(shu)據庫。是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)否有(you)(you)共(gong)同(tong)(tong)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)界(jie)可(ke)由(you)(you)世界(jie)地圖查詢(xun)。各(ge)(ge)(ge)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)加入(ru)APEC的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)情(qing)況來(lai)(lai)(lai)源于(yu)(yu)(yu)亞太(tai)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟合作(zuo)組織官方網站(zhan)(zhan)。是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)否使用(yong)華語、各(ge)(ge)(ge)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)協(xie)議(yi)(yi)(yi)簽(qian)(qian)署時(shi)間(jian)(jian)和(he)內容均來(lai)(lai)(lai)源于(yu)(yu)(yu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)－東(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)(meng)自(zi)(zi)(zi)由(you)(you)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)區(qu)（CAFTA）官方網站(zhan)(zhan)。模(mo)(mo)型(xing)(xing)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)各(ge)(ge)(ge)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)變(bian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)說明如表(biao)2所(suo)示(shi)(shi)。

運用統(tong)計軟件EViews6．0對(dui)(dui)樣(yang)本數(shu)(shu)(shu)據進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)行回(hui)(hui)歸(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)分析，實證考(kao)察(cha)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)－東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)自(zi)(zi)由(you)(you)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)區(qu)(qu)(qu)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)程(cheng)化(hua)(hua)對(dui)(dui)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)－東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)響效應(ying)(ying)。首先分別就中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)－東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)自(zi)(zi)由(you)(you)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)區(qu)(qu)(qu)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)程(cheng)化(hua)(hua)3個(ge)關(guan)(guan)(guan)鍵(jian)事(shi)件進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)行回(hui)(hui)歸(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)分析，得到模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)Ⅰ、模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)Ⅱ和模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)Ⅲ，為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)了(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)考(kao)察(cha)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)－東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)自(zi)(zi)由(you)(you)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)區(qu)(qu)(qu)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)程(cheng)化(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)綜合影(ying)響，把代表(biao)(biao)(biao)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)－東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)自(zi)(zi)由(you)(you)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)區(qu)(qu)(qu)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)程(cheng)化(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)3個(ge)關(guan)(guan)(guan)鍵(jian)事(shi)統(tong)一(yi)(yi)納入模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)回(hui)(hui)歸(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)，得到模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)Ⅳ。從(cong)表(biao)(biao)(biao)3的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)回(hui)(hui)歸(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)結果可(ke)知(zhi)，模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)調整(zheng)后的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)R2較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)大(da)(da)，表(biao)(biao)(biao)明(ming)該模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)有(you)(you)(you)(you)較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)好的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)擬(ni)合優(you)度(du)。D．W統(tong)計值(zhi)表(biao)(biao)(biao)明(ming)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)不(bu)(bu)存(cun)在(zai)自(zi)(zi)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)關(guan)(guan)(guan)性(xing)(xing)(xing)。模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)所(suo)有(you)(you)(you)(you)變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)基本上都(dou)(dou)通(tong)(tong)過(guo)了(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)顯(xian)(xian)(xian)著性(xing)(xing)(xing)檢(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)驗(yan)，具(ju)體分析如下：1．中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)—東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)自(zi)(zi)由(you)(you)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)區(qu)(qu)(qu)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)程(cheng)化(hua)(hua)對(dui)(dui)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)－東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)有(you)(you)(you)(you)重要(yao)(yao)影(ying)響。代表(biao)(biao)(biao)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)－東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)自(zi)(zi)由(you)(you)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)區(qu)(qu)(qu)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)程(cheng)化(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)3個(ge)關(guan)(guan)(guan)鍵(jian)變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)Policy1、Policy2、Policy3在(zai)全(quan)(quan)部模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)都(dou)(dou)通(tong)(tong)過(guo)了(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)1％水(shui)(shui)平(ping)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)顯(xian)(xian)(xian)著性(xing)(xing)(xing)檢(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)驗(yan)且(qie)(qie)回(hui)(hui)歸(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)系(xi)(xi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)均為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)正(zheng)(zheng)，與(yu)前(qian)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)理論假設(she)(she)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)符(fu)。說(shuo)(shuo)明(ming)隨著中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)－東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)自(zi)(zi)由(you)(you)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)區(qu)(qu)(qu)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)程(cheng)化(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)－東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)量(liang)(liang)(liang)不(bu)(bu)斷(duan)(duan)增長。第(di)(di)一(yi)(yi)，2002年(nian)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)與(yu)東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)簽(qian)署了(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)標志(zhi)著中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)－東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)自(zi)(zi)由(you)(you)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)區(qu)(qu)(qu)正(zheng)(zheng)式啟(qi)動的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)《中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)與(yu)東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)全(quan)(quan)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)合作框(kuang)架協(xie)議(yi)》，對(dui)(dui)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)有(you)(you)(you)(you)顯(xian)(xian)(xian)著的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)促進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)效應(ying)(ying)，原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)因(yin)(yin)在(zai)于(yu)(yu)該協(xie)議(yi)條款中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)規(gui)定(ding)(ding)(ding)，雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)方(fang)要(yao)(yao)逐步(bu)取消(xiao)(xiao)貨(huo)物貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)所(suo)有(you)(you)(you)(you)關(guan)(guan)(guan)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)與(yu)非關(guan)(guan)(guan)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)壁壘(lei)，逐步(bu)實現貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)自(zi)(zi)由(you)(you)化(hua)(hua)、便(bian)利化(hua)(hua)。第(di)(di)二，2004年(nian)實施了(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)“早期收獲計劃(hua)”并簽(qian)訂了(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)《貨(huo)物貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)協(xie)議(yi)》，根據該項計劃(hua)及協(xie)議(yi)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)與(yu)東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)首先削減近600種農(nong)副產(chan)(chan)(chan)品(pin)關(guan)(guan)(guan)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)，緊接著開始相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)互(hu)實施全(quan)(quan)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)降(jiang)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)，這大(da)(da)大(da)(da)促進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)了(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)－東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)農(nong)副產(chan)(chan)(chan)品(pin)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)。第(di)(di)三，2007年(nian)簽(qian)署了(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)－東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)自(zi)(zi)由(you)(you)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)區(qu)(qu)(qu)《服(fu)務(wu)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)協(xie)議(yi)》，該協(xie)議(yi)規(gui)定(ding)(ding)(ding)，雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)方(fang)在(zai)60多個(ge)服(fu)務(wu)部門，相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)互(hu)做出(chu)(chu)(chu)了(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)高于(yu)(yu)世界(jie)(jie)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)組織水(shui)(shui)平(ping)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)市場開放(fang)承諾，這一(yi)(yi)協(xie)議(yi)在(zai)一(yi)(yi)定(ding)(ding)(ding)程(cheng)度(du)上促進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)了(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)－東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)服(fu)務(wu)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)，標志(zhi)著雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)方(fang)合作關(guan)(guan)(guan)系(xi)(xi)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)入了(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)全(quan)(quan)新領(ling)域。2．經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)規(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)回(hui)(hui)歸(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)系(xi)(xi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)在(zai)四(si)個(ge)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)均為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)正(zheng)(zheng)，且(qie)(qie)通(tong)(tong)過(guo)了(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)1％水(shui)(shui)平(ping)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)顯(xian)(xian)(xian)著性(xing)(xing)(xing)檢(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)驗(yan)，說(shuo)(shuo)明(ming)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)－東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)與(yu)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)方(fang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)規(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)呈(cheng)現正(zheng)(zheng)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)關(guan)(guan)(guan)，與(yu)前(qian)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)理論假設(she)(she)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)符(fu)。主要(yao)(yao)原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)因(yin)(yin)在(zai)于(yu)(yu)：一(yi)(yi)方(fang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)，貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)GDP越(yue)(yue)高，潛在(zai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)需求越(yue)(yue)大(da)(da)，更(geng)有(you)(you)(you)(you)利于(yu)(yu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)對(dui)(dui)其(qi)(qi)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)出(chu)(chu)(chu)口(kou)(kou)(kou)。另一(yi)(yi)方(fang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)，對(dui)(dui)于(yu)(yu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)而言，GDP的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)增加(jia)對(dui)(dui)其(qi)(qi)供給市場的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)響表(biao)(biao)(biao)現為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)力的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)提高，出(chu)(chu)(chu)口(kou)(kou)(kou)額加(jia)大(da)(da)。隨著各(ge)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)規(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)地不(bu)(bu)斷(duan)(duan)擴(kuo)大(da)(da)，雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)量(liang)(liang)(liang)也會(hui)不(bu)(bu)斷(duan)(duan)增長。3．人口(kou)(kou)(kou)數(shu)(shu)(shu)量(liang)(liang)(liang)變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)回(hui)(hui)歸(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)系(xi)(xi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)在(zai)全(quan)(quan)部模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)均顯(xian)(xian)(xian)著為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)正(zheng)(zheng)，說(shuo)(shuo)明(ming)人口(kou)(kou)(kou)數(shu)(shu)(shu)量(liang)(liang)(liang)對(dui)(dui)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)－東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)起到促進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)作用，與(yu)前(qian)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)理論假設(she)(she)一(yi)(yi)致(zhi)。原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)因(yin)(yin)在(zai)于(yu)(yu)東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)多數(shu)(shu)(shu)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)與(yu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)一(yi)(yi)樣(yang)，同(tong)(tong)屬(shu)于(yu)(yu)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)，科(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)學(xue)(xue)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)水(shui)(shui)平(ping)不(bu)(bu)高，高新技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)產(chan)(chan)(chan)業尚處于(yu)(yu)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)階段(duan)，人口(kou)(kou)(kou)因(yin)(yin)素使得國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)間(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)更(geng)加(jia)活(huo)躍，人口(kou)(kou)(kou)數(shu)(shu)(shu)量(liang)(liang)(liang)增加(jia)創(chuang)(chuang)造的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)需求效應(ying)(ying)遠(yuan)遠(yuan)大(da)(da)于(yu)(yu)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內分工深化(hua)(hua)作用。4．地理距(ju)(ju)離變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)回(hui)(hui)歸(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)系(xi)(xi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)在(zai)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)Ⅰ、模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)Ⅱ和模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)Ⅲ中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)負(fu)，且(qie)(qie)通(tong)(tong)過(guo)了(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)顯(xian)(xian)(xian)著性(xing)(xing)(xing)檢(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)驗(yan)，表(biao)(biao)(biao)明(ming)地理距(ju)(ju)離對(dui)(dui)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)－東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)有(you)(you)(you)(you)負(fu)影(ying)響，與(yu)前(qian)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)理論假設(she)(she)一(yi)(yi)致(zhi)，并且(qie)(qie)地理距(ju)(ju)離越(yue)(yue)遠(yuan)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)對(dui)(dui)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)對(dui)(dui)象(xiang)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)額越(yue)(yue)小(xiao)。但在(zai)地理距(ju)(ju)離變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)Ⅳ中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)沒有(you)(you)(you)(you)通(tong)(tong)過(guo)顯(xian)(xian)(xian)著性(xing)(xing)(xing)檢(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)驗(yan)，其(qi)(qi)原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)因(yin)(yin)有(you)(you)(you)(you)待(dai)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)一(yi)(yi)步(bu)考(kao)察(cha)。5．科(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)學(xue)(xue)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)回(hui)(hui)歸(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)系(xi)(xi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)在(zai)全(quan)(quan)部模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)正(zheng)(zheng)且(qie)(qie)通(tong)(tong)過(guo)了(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)顯(xian)(xian)(xian)著性(xing)(xing)(xing)檢(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)驗(yan)，表(biao)(biao)(biao)明(ming)對(dui)(dui)象(xiang)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)計算(suan)機擁(yong)有(you)(you)(you)(you)率(lv)(lv)越(yue)(yue)高，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)與(yu)其(qi)(qi)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)額越(yue)(yue)大(da)(da)，與(yu)前(qian)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)理論假設(she)(she)一(yi)(yi)致(zhi)。一(yi)(yi)般來說(shuo)(shuo)，一(yi)(yi)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)計算(suan)機擁(yong)有(you)(you)(you)(you)率(lv)(lv)越(yue)(yue)高，表(biao)(biao)(biao)示該國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)科(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)學(xue)(xue)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)應(ying)(ying)用水(shui)(shui)平(ping)越(yue)(yue)高，居民生(sheng)(sheng)活(huo)水(shui)(shui)平(ping)及對(dui)(dui)生(sheng)(sheng)活(huo)質量(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)要(yao)(yao)求也越(yue)(yue)高，對(dui)(dui)商品(pin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)消(xiao)(xiao)費能(neng)力會(hui)越(yue)(yue)強，因(yin)(yin)此(ci)(ci)會(hui)帶(dai)來更(geng)多的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)需求。同(tong)(tong)時，一(yi)(yi)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)科(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)學(xue)(xue)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)越(yue)(yue)發(fa)(fa)達(da)，生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)力就越(yue)(yue)強，會(hui)創(chuang)(chuang)造出(chu)(chu)(chu)更(geng)多的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)出(chu)(chu)(chu)口(kou)(kou)(kou)供給。6．文化(hua)(hua)距(ju)(ju)離變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)回(hui)(hui)歸(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)系(xi)(xi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)在(zai)全(quan)(quan)部模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)正(zheng)(zheng)且(qie)(qie)通(tong)(tong)過(guo)了(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)顯(xian)(xian)(xian)著性(xing)(xing)(xing)檢(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)驗(yan)，表(biao)(biao)(biao)明(ming)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)與(yu)同(tong)(tong)使用華(hua)語(yu)(yu)(yu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)對(dui)(dui)象(xiang)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)行貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)之(zhi)不(bu)(bu)使用華(hua)語(yu)(yu)(yu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)，雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)量(liang)(liang)(liang)更(geng)多，與(yu)前(qian)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)理論假設(she)(she)一(yi)(yi)致(zhi)。原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)因(yin)(yin)在(zai)于(yu)(yu)：一(yi)(yi)方(fang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)，使用華(hua)語(yu)(yu)(yu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)華(hua)人人口(kou)(kou)(kou)較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)多，對(dui)(dui)本國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)產(chan)(chan)(chan)品(pin)需求較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)大(da)(da)；另一(yi)(yi)方(fang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)，華(hua)語(yu)(yu)(yu)作為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)該國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)官(guan)方(fang)語(yu)(yu)(yu)言，使得該國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)居民對(dui)(dui)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)抱有(you)(you)(you)(you)親切感(gan)和認同(tong)(tong)感(gan)，在(zai)人文環境上產(chan)(chan)(chan)生(sheng)(sheng)一(yi)(yi)定(ding)(ding)(ding)程(cheng)度(du)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)共(gong)(gong)(gong)通(tong)(tong)點，更(geng)容(rong)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)接受和喜愛中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)產(chan)(chan)(chan)品(pin)，對(dui)(dui)于(yu)(yu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)出(chu)(chu)(chu)口(kou)(kou)(kou)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)更(geng)容(rong)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)推廣。7．優(you)惠貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)區(qu)(qu)(qu)變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)回(hui)(hui)歸(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)系(xi)(xi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)在(zai)全(quan)(quan)部模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)正(zheng)(zheng)且(qie)(qie)通(tong)(tong)過(guo)了(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)顯(xian)(xian)(xian)著性(xing)(xing)(xing)檢(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)驗(yan)，表(biao)(biao)(biao)明(ming)當中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)與(yu)其(qi)(qi)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)對(dui)(dui)象(xiang)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)同(tong)(tong)屬(shu)于(yu)(yu)APEC成(cheng)員(yuan)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)時，更(geng)有(you)(you)(you)(you)利于(yu)(yu)促進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)兩國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)間(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)，與(yu)前(qian)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)理論假設(she)(she)一(yi)(yi)致(zhi)。因(yin)(yin)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)屬(shu)于(yu)(yu)同(tong)(tong)一(yi)(yi)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)區(qu)(qu)(qu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)在(zai)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)過(guo)程(cheng)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)存(cun)在(zai)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)優(you)惠政策，相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)互(hu)之(zhi)間(jian)可(ke)以(yi)(yi)享有(you)(you)(you)(you)關(guan)(guan)(guan)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)優(you)惠，技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)性(xing)(xing)(xing)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)壁壘(lei)、非關(guan)(guan)(guan)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)(shui)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)壁壘(lei)和其(qi)(qi)他(ta)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)壁壘(lei)都(dou)(dou)會(hui)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)對(dui)(dui)較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)低，利于(yu)(yu)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)規(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)擴(kuo)大(da)(da)。8．共(gong)(gong)(gong)同(tong)(tong)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)界(jie)(jie)變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)回(hui)(hui)歸(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)系(xi)(xi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)在(zai)四(si)個(ge)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)都(dou)(dou)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)負(fu)，且(qie)(qie)通(tong)(tong)過(guo)了(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)1％水(shui)(shui)平(ping)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)顯(xian)(xian)(xian)著性(xing)(xing)(xing)檢(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)驗(yan)，表(biao)(biao)(biao)明(ming)共(gong)(gong)(gong)同(tong)(tong)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)界(jie)(jie)與(yu)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)量(liang)(liang)(liang)負(fu)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)關(guan)(guan)(guan)，這與(yu)前(qian)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)理論假設(she)(she)不(bu)(bu)符(fu)。究其(qi)(qi)原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)因(yin)(yin)，與(yu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)有(you)(you)(you)(you)共(gong)(gong)(gong)同(tong)(tong)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)界(jie)(jie)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)，如緬甸、老(lao)撾都(dou)(dou)是貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)小(xiao)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)，經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)規(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)小(xiao)，科(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)學(xue)(xue)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)水(shui)(shui)平(ping)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)對(dui)(dui)較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)低，所(suo)以(yi)(yi)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)流量(liang)(liang)(liang)少(shao)，即使存(cun)在(zai)共(gong)(gong)(gong)同(tong)(tong)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)界(jie)(jie)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)優(you)勢，也難(nan)以(yi)(yi)發(fa)(fa)揮(hui)優(you)勢來大(da)(da)規(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)擴(kuo)大(da)(da)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)；而與(yu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)沒有(you)(you)(you)(you)有(you)(you)(you)(you)共(gong)(gong)(gong)同(tong)(tong)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)界(jie)(jie)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)，如馬來西亞(ya)、新加(jia)坡等，其(qi)(qi)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)規(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)大(da)(da)，科(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)學(xue)(xue)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)水(shui)(shui)平(ping)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)對(dui)(dui)較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)高，且(qie)(qie)同(tong)(tong)使用華(hua)語(yu)(yu)(yu)，對(dui)(dui)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)需求和出(chu)(chu)(chu)口(kou)(kou)(kou)供給都(dou)(dou)較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)大(da)(da)，因(yin)(yin)此(ci)(ci)就造成(cheng)了(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)與(yu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)沒有(you)(you)(you)(you)共(gong)(gong)(gong)同(tong)(tong)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)界(jie)(jie)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)流量(liang)(liang)(liang)較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)大(da)(da)，而與(yu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)有(you)(you)(you)(you)共(gong)(gong)(gong)同(tong)(tong)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)界(jie)(jie)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)流量(liang)(liang)(liang)反而較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)小(xiao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)現象(xiang)。這也從(cong)側面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)說(shuo)(shuo)明(ming)了(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)(le)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)對(dui)(dui)東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)盟(meng)(meng)(meng)各(ge)鄰(lin)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)還不(bu)(bu)夠發(fa)(fa)達(da)。

摘要：本文基于(yu)2000年1月(yue)至(zhi)2018年6月(yue)中國(guo)貨幣(bi)供(gong)給(gei)的(de)增(zeng)長率(lv)、美國(guo)貨幣(bi)供(gong)給(gei)的(de)增(zeng)長率(lv)、美國(guo)進出(chu)(chu)口價格(ge)指(zhi)數(shu)、中國(guo)進出(chu)(chu)口價格(ge)指(zhi)數(shu)等相關季度數(shu)據，運用(yong)VAR模(mo)型(xing)通(tong)過單(dan)位根檢驗、脈沖響(xiang)應函數(shu)等計量經濟分析方法對(dui)中美貨幣(bi)政策(ce)對(dui)其雙(shuang)邊貿(mao)易動(dong)態(tai)影響(xiang)進行實(shi)證研究(jiu)，研究(jiu)結果表明(ming)：中國(guo)貨幣(bi)政策(ce)的(de)擴張將有利于(yu)中美貿(mao)易余額(e)的(de)調整(zheng)，而美國(guo)的(de)貨幣(bi)政策(ce)和(he)匯率(lv)政策(ce)在中美貿(mao)易余額(e)的(de)調整(zheng)過程中能夠(gou)發(fa)揮(hui)的(de)作用(yong)相對(dui)有限。

關鍵詞：貨幣政(zheng)策；VAR模型；中(zhong)美貿易

一、引言

21世(shi)紀以來(lai)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)美(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)順差(cha)的不斷(duan)擴大(da)成為(wei)了眾(zhong)多學者所關注的焦(jiao)點。目前國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)外(wai)流行的一(yi)個(ge)主要(yao)觀點是(shi)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)美(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)順差(cha)是(shi)由于(yu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)通過(guo)貨幣(bi)(bi)(bi)政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)將人(ren)民(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)匯(hui)率控制在(zai)很低的水平上(shang)引起(qi)的，也(ye)即中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)貨幣(bi)(bi)(bi)政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)是(shi)一(yi)個(ge)“以鄰(lin)為(wei)壑”政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)。Obstfeld和Rogoff（2005）等(deng)(deng)研究(jiu)者認為(wei)，美(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)元貶值(zhi)或(huo)人(ren)民(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)升(sheng)值(zhi)可以通過(guo)支出(chu)轉換(huan)效應(ying)促進(jin)美(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)出(chu)口和中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)進(jin)口增(zeng)(zeng)加，從(cong)而減(jian)少中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)美(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)失(shi)衡程度。然而，實際情況是(shi)，在(zai)2005至2008年(nian)期間，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)美(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)順差(cha)并未隨(sui)著人(ren)民(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)快速(su)升(sheng)值(zhi)下降(jiang)，順差(cha)反而持續積累。2008年(nian)全球金融危機(ji)之后，隨(sui)著美(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)量(liang)(liang)化寬(kuan)松貨幣(bi)(bi)(bi)政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)的推(tui)出(chu)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)美(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)失(shi)衡有(you)所調整，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)對(dui)(dui)外(wai)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)順差(cha)也(ye)明顯(xian)下降(jiang)。我們不禁(jin)要(yao)問(wen)，美(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)寬(kuan)松貨幣(bi)(bi)(bi)政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)對(dui)(dui)美(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)元指(zhi)數的影響(xiang)有(you)多大(da)?該政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)在(zai)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)美(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)經(jing)貿(mao)(mao)往(wang)來(lai)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)是(shi)否體現了“以鄰(lin)為(wei)壑”?本(ben)文(wen)(wen)旨在(zai)探究(jiu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)美(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)貨幣(bi)(bi)(bi)政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)對(dui)(dui)其雙(shuang)邊貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)差(cha)額的影響(xiang)，本(ben)文(wen)(wen)基于(yu)2000年(nian)1月至2018年(nian)6月的季(ji)度數據，選取中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)貨幣(bi)(bi)(bi)供給(gei)的增(zeng)(zeng)長率、美(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)供給(gei)的增(zeng)(zeng)長率、美(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)進(jin)出(chu)口價(jia)格(ge)指(zhi)數、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)進(jin)出(chu)口價(jia)格(ge)指(zhi)數等(deng)(deng)變(bian)量(liang)(liang)，利用eviews9.0軟件(jian)，采用單位根檢(jian)驗、脈沖響(xiang)應(ying)函數等(deng)(deng)計量(liang)(liang)分(fen)析方法，對(dui)(dui)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)美(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)貨幣(bi)(bi)(bi)政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)對(dui)(dui)其雙(shuang)邊貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)的動(dong)態影響(xiang)進(jin)行實證(zheng)研究(jiu)。

二、模型(xing)構建與(yu)數(shu)據說明

（一(yi)）模(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)構建。VAR模(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)是(shi)(shi)研究中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)美貨(huo)幣(bi)(bi)政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)對(dui)(dui)(dui)其貿(mao)易差(cha)額(e)變動(dong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)常(chang)用模(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)，是(shi)(shi)一(yi)種運用非結(jie)構性(xing)方法(fa)來(lai)建立(li)各(ge)個(ge)變量(liang)(liang)(liang)關(guan)系的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)模(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)，克服了傳統模(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)在估計和推斷上的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)復雜性(xing)。VAR（p）模(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)學表(biao)達式為(wei)：yt=a1yt-1+...+apyt-p+bxt+εt其中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，yt、xt是(shi)(shi)內生變量(liang)(liang)(liang)，p是(shi)(shi)滯后階數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)，εt是(shi)(shi)隨(sui)機擾(rao)動(dong)項。如果模(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)不含有外(wai)生變量(liang)(liang)(liang)，模(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)即為(wei)簡(jian)化的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)VAR模(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)。本文(wen)采(cai)用時間(jian)序列計量(liang)(liang)(liang)分(fen)(fen)析模(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)對(dui)(dui)(dui)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)美貨(huo)幣(bi)(bi)政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)對(dui)(dui)(dui)其雙邊(bian)貿(mao)易動(dong)態影響進(jin)(jin)(jin)行實證研究，采(cai)用VAR模(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)通過單位根檢(jian)驗(yan)、脈(mo)沖(chong)響應函數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)計量(liang)(liang)(liang)學方法(fa)，從(cong)定(ding)量(liang)(liang)(liang)分(fen)(fen)析的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)角(jiao)度來(lai)判別變量(liang)(liang)(liang)之間(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)關(guan)系，以(yi)(yi)(yi)達到有理、有據，定(ding)性(xing)與定(ding)量(liang)(liang)(liang)分(fen)(fen)析的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)統一(yi)。（二(er)）數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)據說明。本文(wen)選(xuan)取2000年1月(yue)至(zhi)2018年6月(yue)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)季(ji)(ji)度數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)據，變量(liang)(liang)(liang)選(xuan)取了中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)貨(huo)幣(bi)(bi)供給(gei)增長(chang)率(lv)(lv)（M2c）、美國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)貨(huo)幣(bi)(bi)供給(gei)增長(chang)率(lv)(lv)（M2u）、美國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)進(jin)(jin)(jin)口價(jia)(jia)格(ge)指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)（IPIU）、美國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)出(chu)口價(jia)(jia)格(ge)指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)（EPIU）、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)進(jin)(jin)(jin)口價(jia)(jia)格(ge)指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)（IPIC）、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)出(chu)口價(jia)(jia)格(ge)（EPIC）以(yi)(yi)(yi)及中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)美貿(mao)易差(cha)額(e)（TB）和中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)美雙邊(bian)實際(ji)匯(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)（ER）。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)美雙邊(bian)實際(ji)匯(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)以(yi)(yi)(yi)雙邊(bian)名義匯(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)與中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)美消(xiao)(xiao)費者(zhe)(zhe)物(wu)價(jia)(jia)指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)（CPI）之比的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)乘積來(lai)計算，公式為(wei)：ER=EER(P1/P)其中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，EER是(shi)(shi)人民(min)幣(bi)(bi)兌美元的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)名義匯(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)。P1和P分(fen)(fen)別表(biao)示美國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)和中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)消(xiao)(xiao)費者(zhe)(zhe)物(wu)價(jia)(jia)指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)（CPI）。（數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)據來(lai)源(yuan)于wind宏觀(guan)經濟數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)據庫。）結(jie)構向量(liang)(liang)(liang)自回歸(gui)模(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)要求各(ge)個(ge)變量(liang)(liang)(liang)是(shi)(shi)平穩(wen)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)隨(sui)機過程，因此要對(dui)(dui)(dui)各(ge)個(ge)變量(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)平穩(wen)性(xing)進(jin)(jin)(jin)行檢(jian)驗(yan)。本文(wen)先(xian)對(dui)(dui)(dui)各(ge)變量(liang)(liang)(liang)進(jin)(jin)(jin)行季(ji)(ji)節性(xing)調(diao)整，即通過Eviews9.0軟件(jian)用X-12法(fa)對(dui)(dui)(dui)各(ge)變量(liang)(liang)(liang)進(jin)(jin)(jin)行處(chu)理，以(yi)(yi)(yi)此來(lai)消(xiao)(xiao)除(chu)(chu)季(ji)(ji)節波(bo)動(dong)。同(tong)時對(dui)(dui)(dui)數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)據取自然(ran)對(dui)(dui)(dui)數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)，以(yi)(yi)(yi)此來(lai)消(xiao)(xiao)除(chu)(chu)數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)據異方差(cha)，從(cong)而使數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)據更趨(qu)于平穩(wen)。對(dui)(dui)(dui)于處(chu)理過的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)據分(fen)(fen)別用LNM、LNTB、LNIPIC、LNEPIC、LNIPIU、LNEPIU、LNER表(biao)示對(dui)(dui)(dui)數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)貨(huo)幣(bi)(bi)供應增長(chang)率(lv)(lv)、美國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)貨(huo)幣(bi)(bi)供應增長(chang)率(lv)(lv)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)美貿(mao)易差(cha)額(e)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)進(jin)(jin)(jin)口價(jia)(jia)格(ge)指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)出(chu)口價(jia)(jia)格(ge)指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)、美國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)進(jin)(jin)(jin)口價(jia)(jia)格(ge)指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)、美國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)出(chu)口價(jia)(jia)格(ge)指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)以(yi)(yi)(yi)及中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)美雙邊(bian)實際(ji)匯(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)。

【論文(wen)關鍵詞】跨國公司競(jing)爭；貿易(yi)政策FTA；區域主義；東亞共同體

【論(lun)文(wen)摘要(yao)】這個矛盾(dun)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)現象(xiang)不僅反映(ying)了雙邊自由貿易協(xie)定是跨國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)公(gong)司國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際直(zhi)接投(tou)資的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)工具(ju)，而(er)(er)且是日(ri)(ri)本(ben)(ben)政府(fu)(fu)理想的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)FTA對象(xiang)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)模型。同(tong)時，政治體制(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)差異(yi)、一個國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家市場(chang)體制(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)育(yu)程度以及與WTO規(gui)則的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)接軌程度并(bing)(bing)不是日(ri)(ri)本(ben)(ben)選擇(ze)FTA對象(xiang)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)絕對障礙(ai)。本(ben)(ben)文(wen)還發(fa)現，日(ri)(ri)本(ben)(ben)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)十三個FTA對象(xiang)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)絕大多數早就是美(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)FTA對象(xiang)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)，而(er)(er)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)與美(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)之間并(bing)(bing)沒有制(zhi)度化的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)貿易與投(tou)資優惠協(xie)議(yi)。基(ji)于這些發(fa)現，本(ben)(ben)文(wen)認為日(ri)(ri)本(ben)(ben)沒有選擇(ze)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)作為FTA對象(xiang)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)是因(yin)為日(ri)(ri)本(ben)(ben)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)“動力(li)”不足。具(ju)體來(lai)說(shuo)，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)目前對外簽訂的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)FTA尚未對日(ri)(ri)本(ben)(ben)跨國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)公(gong)司與歐美(mei)跨國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)公(gong)司的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)海外競爭構成“歧(qi)視性”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)區(qu)別，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)FTA對日(ri)(ri)本(ben)(ben)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)跨國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)公(gong)司沒有產生“排擠”效應。因(yin)此(ci)，日(ri)(ri)本(ben)(ben)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)經團(tuan)聯等跨國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)公(gong)司產業(ye)利益(yi)集團(tuan)沒有足夠的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)動力(li)去(qu)抗衡農業(ye)部門的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)利益(yi)集團(tuan)，并(bing)(bing)游說(shuo)日(ri)(ri)本(ben)(ben)政府(fu)(fu)決定與中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)簽訂FTA。本(ben)(ben)文(wen)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)研(yan)究(jiu)發(fa)現支(zhi)持(chi)或(huo)者說(shuo)驗證了區(qu)域(yu)主(zhu)義理論(lun)中(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)游說(shuo)與尋租(zu)理論(lun)。

日(ri)本(ben)雙邊(bian)自(zi)由貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)協(xie)定之(zhi)謎(mi)說的是，日(ri)本(ben)對外(wai)締結雙邊(bian)自(zi)由貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)協(xie)定（“FTA”）專門選擇那些(xie)與(yu)(yu)日(ri)本(ben)雙邊(bian)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)額極其微(wei)小、甚(shen)至可以忽略不計的國(guo)(guo)家作為FAT對象國(guo)(guo)。中(zhong)(zhong)日(ri)之(zhi)間的貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)條約(yue)情況則構成(cheng)了“謎(mi)中(zhong)(zhong)謎(mi)”：日(ri)本(ben)不愿(yuan)與(yu)(yu)其第一(yi)大貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)國(guo)(guo)——中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)簽署雙邊(bian)自(zi)由貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)協(xie)定。

一直以來，自(zi)民(min)黨執政(zheng)(zheng)的(de)(de)日(ri)本政(zheng)(zheng)府面對(dui)中(zhong)國領導人的(de)(de)中(zhong)日(ri)雙邊自(zi)由貿(mao)易(yi)協(xie)定(ding)提議，采取回(hui)避的(de)(de)消極(ji)態度。從(cong)《日(ri)本FTA戰(zhan)略(lve)》（2002年(nian)）、《關(guan)于(yu)(yu)推進今后(hou)經(jing)濟合作協(xie)定(ding)的(de)(de)基本方針》（2005年(nian)）到《經(jing)濟全球化戰(zhan)略(lve)》（2006年(nian)），日(ri)本政(zheng)(zheng)府將(jiang)中(zhong)日(ri)自(zi)由貿(mao)易(yi)協(xie)定(ding)定(ding)位于(yu)(yu)中(zhong)長期，認(ren)為中(zhong)國的(de)(de)主要(yao)任務(wu)是(shi)“進口健全市場經(jing)濟體制，制定(ding)并實施與WTO接軌的(de)(de)關(guan)于(yu)(yu)競爭政(zheng)(zheng)策、知識產(chan)權保護(hu)、公司治理以及節能環保等方面的(de)(de)規則和措施”——后(hou)面筆者會從(cong)越南的(de)(de)例子論證這些因素不是(shi)影響(xiang)日(ri)本選擇FTA對(dui)象國的(de)(de)因素。

為什么日本(ben)尚不愿(yuan)意選擇中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)作為自由貿(mao)易(yi)協定(ding)談判(pan)對(dui)象？面對(dui)如此之(zhi)大的(de)(de)中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)市(shi)場，日本(ben)政(zheng)(zheng)府舍近求遠，截至2009年(nian)11月(yue)底，日本(ben)先后(hou)與墨西哥、文萊等12個國(guo)(guo)家或地區簽(qian)訂了雙邊FTA，正(zheng)在(zai)與印度、海灣(wan)合作委(wei)員會談判(pan)。而(er)且，相比其它國(guo)(guo)家，中(zhong)日兩國(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)經濟貿(mao)易(yi)關系不可謂不緊密，2000年(nian)，中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)已(yi)經是(shi)(shi)日本(ben)第一(yi)大出口市(shi)場。日本(ben)政(zheng)(zheng)府的(de)(de)FTA決策結果是(shi)(shi)不容(rong)易(yi)解釋的(de)(de)現(xian)象。

中國學界較為流行(xing)的(de)(de)一種解釋(shi)是，日(ri)(ri)(ri)本對中國的(de)(de)“敵(di)意”以及中日(ri)(ri)(ri)兩國的(de)(de)東亞主導(dao)權之(zhi)爭。學界流行(xing)的(de)(de)“敵(di)意”理(li)論只是描述一個表象，且缺少(shao)細節，特別是難以解釋(shi)為什么日(ri)(ri)(ri)本對“中日(ri)(ri)(ri)投(tou)資協(xie)(xie)定”十分積極與支持，中日(ri)(ri)(ri)雙邊(bian)投(tou)資保護協(xie)(xie)定早在1989年就(jiu)已生效。

一、中國與新西蘭FTA談判的歷史(shi)性(xing)進展

(一)談判進程回(hui)顧(gu)

近年(nian)(nian)來，中(zhong)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)兩(liang)國(guo)經貿(mao)(mao)關系(xi)穩步發(fa)展(zhan)，政(zheng)治互信不斷加(jia)強。為(wei)進一步深化兩(liang)國(guo)友好合(he)作關系(xi)，2004年(nian)(nian)11月，主(zhu)席與(yu)(yu)克拉克總(zong)(zong)理(li)共(gong)同(tong)宣布(bu)啟動中(zhong)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)自(zi)由(you)(you)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)協(xie)定(ding)談(tan)判(pan)(pan)，由(you)(you)此拉開了談(tan)判(pan)(pan)序幕。談(tan)判(pan)(pan)歷時三年(nian)(nian)，兩(liang)國(guo)領導(dao)人從中(zhong)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)關系(xi)及兩(liang)國(guo)經濟長遠發(fa)展(zhan)的戰略高度，積極推動談(tan)判(pan)(pan)進程。2006年(nian)(nian)4月，總(zong)(zong)理(li)訪問新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)西(xi)(xi)蘭，與(yu)(yu)克拉克總(zong)(zong)理(li)共(gong)同(tong)確(que)定(ding)了一至兩(liang)年(nian)(nian)內達成(cheng)全面、高質量、平衡以及為(wei)雙方所(suo)接受的自(zi)由(you)(you)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)協(xie)定(ding)的目標。2007年(nian)(nian)，主(zhu)席和總(zong)(zong)理(li)又與(yu)(yu)克拉克總(zong)(zong)理(li)多次會晤，不斷為(wei)談(tan)判(pan)(pan)注入動力。經過三年(nian)(nian)15輪談(tan)判(pan)(pan)，2007年(nian)(nian)12月，雙方最(zui)終就《協(xie)定(ding)》涉及的所(suo)有問題達成(cheng)一致。2008年(nian)(nian)4月7日，中(zhong)國(guo)與(yu)(yu)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)西(xi)(xi)蘭簽署《中(zhong)華人民(min)共(gong)和國(guo)政(zheng)府(fu)和新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)西(xi)(xi)蘭政(zheng)府(fu)自(zi)由(you)(you)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)協(xie)定(ding)》，新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)西(xi)(xi)蘭成(cheng)為(wei)首個與(yu)(yu)中(zhong)國(guo)簽署自(zi)由(you)(you)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)協(xie)定(ding)(FTA)的發(fa)達國(guo)家(jia)。

(二)本(ben)次(ci)簽訂FTA的主要內容

中(zhong)新協定的(de)(de)內(nei)容(rong)涵(han)蓋了貨物貿(mao)易、服務(wu)貿(mao)易、投(tou)資等多個(ge)領(ling)域。根據(ju)該(gai)協定，新方承諾(nuo)將(jiang)在(zai)2016年1月(yue)1日(ri)前取(qu)消全部自華(hua)進口產(chan)(chan)品(pin)關(guan)稅，其中(zhong)63.6％的(de)(de)產(chan)(chan)品(pin)從協定生(sheng)效時起即(ji)實(shi)現零關(guan)稅。中(zhong)方承諾(nuo)將(jiang)在(zai)2019年1月(yue)1日(ri)前取(qu)消97.2％自新西蘭進口的(de)(de)產(chan)(chan)品(pin)關(guan)稅，其中(zhong)24.3％的(de)(de)產(chan)(chan)品(pin)從協定生(sheng)效時起即(ji)實(shi)現零關(guan)稅。此外，雙方還就服務(wu)貿(mao)易做出了高于世界(jie)貿(mao)易組織的(de)(de)承諾(nuo)，并對包括技術工人在(zai)內(nei)的(de)(de)人員流動(dong)做出了具體規定。

二、中國與新西蘭FTA談(tan)判成功的意義及問(wen)題

一、擴大(da)中日(ri)貿易是兩國經濟發展的(de)需要

日(ri)本(ben)(ben)是(shi)中國(guo)的(de)第(di)一(yi)大(da)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)伙(huo)伴，中國(guo)也(ye)(ye)是(shi)日(ri)本(ben)(ben)的(de)第(di)一(yi)大(da)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)伙(huo)伴，中日(ri)兩國(guo)的(de)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)關(guan)系對彼此來說(shuo)都非常重(zhong)要(yao)，雙方貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)互(hu)補性(xing)極(ji)強。中日(ri)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)關(guan)系的(de)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)既(ji)促(cu)進了(le)中國(guo)工(gong)業(ye)化(hua)水平的(de)提高，也(ye)(ye)促(cu)進了(le)日(ri)本(ben)(ben)產業(ye)結構(gou)的(de)調整，實(shi)現了(le)雙贏，使中日(ri)雙方的(de)經(jing)濟互(hu)補關(guan)系在(zai)雙邊貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)中得以(yi)充(chong)分體(ti)現。兩國(guo)在(zai)自(zi)然稟賦、要(yao)素(su)相(xiang)對價格方面的(de)差(cha)異(yi)、產業(ye)結構(gou)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)層次方面的(de)差(cha)異(yi)既(ji)是(shi)雙邊貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)得以(yi)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)的(de)內在(zai)機制，也(ye)(ye)使優(you)化(hua)雙邊貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)結構(gou)。進一(yi)步發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)雙邊貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)，具有廣闊的(de)空間和巨大(da)的(de)潛力。

二、中日兩(liang)國(guo)貿易(yi)現狀

1.雙邊貿易增速有(you)所放緩

從《中(zhong)(zhong)國海(hai)關統計(ji)年(nian)(nian)(nian)鑒》歷年(nian)(nian)(nian)統計(ji)數(shu)據(ju)中(zhong)(zhong)可(ke)知：中(zhong)(zhong)日貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)總額(e)(e)從1980年(nian)(nian)(nian)的只有89億美(mei)元發(fa)展到2006年(nian)(nian)(nian)的2073億美(mei)元，增(zeng)長(chang)了(le)將近23倍。根據(ju)日本(ben)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)振興(xing)機構的統計(ji)數(shu)據(ju)2007年(nian)(nian)(nian)日中(zhong)(zhong)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)額(e)(e)達到了(le)2367億美(mei)元，首次超(chao)過對美(mei)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)額(e)(e)，中(zhong)(zhong)國已經成為日本(ben)第一大(da)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)伙伴。而且比2006年(nian)(nian)(nian)將近增(zeng)長(chang)了(le)12%，連續9年(nian)(nian)(nian)更新(xin)歷史(shi)最高紀錄(lu)。1980以來，中(zhong)(zhong)日兩(liang)邊的貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)額(e)(e)一直呈(cheng)增(zeng)長(chang)趨勢，除了(le)1998年(nian)(nian)(nian)有些例(li)外。2002年(nian)(nian)(nian)中(zhong)(zhong)日貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)首次突(tu)破(po)了(le)1000億美(mei)元大(da)關，2006年(nian)(nian)(nian)突(tu)破(po)了(le)2000億美(mei)元大(da)關。

1993年(nian)至2003年(nian)的(de)(de)11年(nian)間，日本(ben)(ben)一(yi)直是中(zhong)(zhong)國最大的(de)(de)進(jin)出(chu)口貿(mao)易(yi)(yi)伙伴。但(dan)自(zi)2004年(nian)以(yi)來(lai)，美國和歐盟超過日本(ben)(ben)成(cheng)為中(zhong)(zhong)國第三大貿(mao)易(yi)(yi)伙伴，2005年(nian)開始貿(mao)易(yi)(yi)增長(chang)速度(du)有所緩慢。2005年(nian)、2006年(nian)、2007年(nian)中(zhong)(zhong)日貿(mao)易(yi)(yi)額的(de)(de)增長(chang)率分別下降至9.8%、12.4%、11.9%。這(zhe)其中(zhong)(zhong)不乏(fa)因(yin)為全球或地區經濟動(dong)蕩(dang)、政(zheng)治關系多變(bian)、國家政(zheng)策(ce)制(zhi)定(ding)等(deng)因(yin)素(su)的(de)(de)影響，造成(cheng)了增長(chang)曲線中(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)斷點和增長(chang)趨勢的(de)(de)不連續。

[摘要]在我國已經(jing)簽署的110多(duo)個雙(shuang)邊投資(zi)協(xie)定（BITs）中，有(you)17個規(gui)定了國民(min)待(dai)遇，而(er)各個BITs中有(you)關(guan)國民(min)待(dai)遇的定義(yi)、適用對(dui)(dui)(dui)象、適用標(biao)準(zhun)等的具體(ti)措(cuo)辭并不一致。審視我國BITs中有(you)關(guan)國民(min)待(dai)遇制度的利弊(bi)得(de)失并積極尋求完善我國雙(shuang)邊投資(zi)立法的對(dui)(dui)(dui)策，對(dui)(dui)(dui)于改善我國的投資(zi)法律環境和實現內外(wai)資(zi)的平等待(dai)遇具有(you)重要的現實意(yi)義(yi)。

[關鍵詞]雙邊投資協(xie)定國民(min)待遇重構

在(zai)國際投(tou)資法(fa)領域，投(tou)資待遇(yu)一直是一個備受關注(zhu)的問題。近(jin)年來，國民(min)待遇(yu)在(zai)多邊(bian)和雙邊(bian)投(tou)資協定中被(bei)廣(guang)泛采(cai)用，代表了國際投(tou)資法(fa)領域的最新發展趨勢。甚至有(you)學者主張(zhang)，國民(min)待遇(yu)已(yi)經成為(wei)外資待遇(yu)的一般(ban)準則。

據統(tong)計，迄至2005年(nian)底，我(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)已經與117個(ge)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家締(di)結了“雙邊投(tou)資協定(ding)”（BITs）。1目(mu)前，我(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)正在積極與一(yi)些國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家進行締(di)結BITs的(de)談判或修(xiu)訂原有(you)的(de)BITs.從(cong)我(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)BITs的(de)實踐來看，我(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)對外(wai)資待(dai)(dai)遇(yu)所采(cai)用(yong)的(de)標準主要有(you)最惠國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)待(dai)(dai)遇(yu)、公平(ping)與公正待(dai)(dai)遇(yu)以及(ji)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)民(min)(min)待(dai)(dai)遇(yu)。其中，只(zhi)有(you)17個(ge)BITs規定(ding)了國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)民(min)(min)待(dai)(dai)遇(yu)，而(er)這17個(ge)BITs中有(you)關國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)民(min)(min)待(dai)(dai)遇(yu)的(de)定(ding)義、適用(yong)對象、適用(yong)標準等的(de)具體(ti)措(cuo)辭并不一(yi)致。

一、我國BITs中國民待遇(yu)制(zhi)度存在的(de)問題

（一(yi)）有(you)關國民(min)待遇的規定不適應形勢發展(zhan)的需(xu)要

編者(zhe)按：本文主要從兩國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)關系(xi)駛入(ru)(ru)轉型軌道；兩國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)對21世紀(ji)世界藍(lan)圖的(de)設計之間橫亙著(zhu)戰(zhan)略鴻溝；兩國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)對21世紀(ji)法(fa)(fa)(fa)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際地位和作用引發的(de)認知沖突(tu)；兩國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)面(mian)向21世紀(ji)的(de)長期能源(yuan)利益存在(zai)根本矛盾；政(zheng)治歷(li)(li)史(shi)造(zao)就(jiu)的(de)民族心(xin)理(li)特(te)征(zheng)差異進行論(lun)述。其中，主要包括：圍(wei)繞伊拉克戰(zhan)爭的(de)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際事(shi)態演進，美國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)和法(fa)(fa)(fa)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)關系(xi)經歷(li)(li)了深刻(ke)變化(hua)、法(fa)(fa)(fa)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)分別在(zai)北約和聯合國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)等重要國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際舞臺對美國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)頤指(zhi)氣(qi)使給予杯葛、美法(fa)(fa)(fa)這種新型國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)關系(xi)必須(xu)超越分歧、美法(fa)(fa)(fa)關系(xi)已步(bu)入(ru)(ru)轉型期、霸權與(yu)(yu)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際秩序的(de)穩定之間存在(zai)因(yin)果(guo)關系(xi)、最(zui)終法(fa)(fa)(fa)律都是自然法(fa)(fa)(fa)、只有一種主導力量(liang)的(de)世界是危險的(de)、無論(lun)是“法(fa)(fa)(fa)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)勢(shi)微論(lun)”，還(huan)是“法(fa)(fa)(fa)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)威脅(xie)論(lun)”，其結果(guo)都是相同的(de)、法(fa)(fa)(fa)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)與(yu)(yu)關國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)雙邊關系(xi)始終在(zai)波(bo)折中演進，造(zao)就(jiu)了法(fa)(fa)(fa)蘭(lan)西針對美國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)獨特(te)的(de)民族心(xin)理(li)特(te)征(zheng)等，具體請詳見。

摘要：從21世紀國(guo)(guo)際戰略構想、法(fa)國(guo)(guo)未來國(guo)(guo)際地位、長期能(neng)源(yuan)利益和民族心理特征四個方(fang)(fang)面探討由伊拉克危機(ji)引發的(de)美國(guo)(guo)與(yu)法(fa)國(guo)(guo)雙邊關(guan)系(xi)轉(zhuan)型(xing)的(de)根(gen)源(yuan)，有助于正確理解(jie)未來兩國(guo)(guo)關(guan)系(xi)所具有的(de)本質特征、表現(xian)形式以及發展(zhan)方(fang)(fang)向。

 關鍵(jian)詞：美國(guo)；法國(guo)；國(guo)家關系；觀念利(li)益；轉型(xing)；根源(yuan)

一、兩國(guo)國(guo)家關系駛入轉型軌(gui)道(dao)

圍繞伊拉克戰爭(zheng)的國(guo)(guo)際(ji)事態(tai)演進，美國(guo)(guo)和法國(guo)(guo)的國(guo)(guo)家(jia)關系(xi)經歷了深刻變化。戰爭(zheng)結(jie)束后，兩國(guo)(guo)領導(dao)人(ren)多(duo)次(ci)表(biao)示，謀求建立一(yi)種新型的雙邊關系(xi)。

舊的(de)(de)(de)跨大西洋主(zhu)義概(gai)括了美國與(yu)法(fa)國雙邊關(guan)(guan)系的(de)(de)(de)基本(ben)特征和(he)(he)范式。美法(fa)關(guan)(guan)系作為(wei)美國與(yu)歐洲(zhou)盟國關(guan)(guan)系的(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)要(yao)組成(cheng)部分(fen)(fen)，主(zhu)要(yao)針對蘇(su)聯威脅(xie)。美國占據主(zhu)導地位，但通常采用協商和(he)(he)對話方式協調大西洋兩岸對重(zhong)大國際問題的(de)(de)(de)立(li)場和(he)(he)行動。這種方式被表述為(wei)協商、達成(cheng)一致、存在分(fen)(fen)歧、談判的(de)(de)(de)程序。

一、中國與新西蘭FTA談判的歷史性進展

(一)談(tan)判(pan)進程回(hui)顧

近(jin)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)來，中(zhong)新(xin)(xin)(xin)兩(liang)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)經貿關(guan)系穩步發(fa)展，政(zheng)(zheng)治(zhi)互信(xin)不(bu)斷(duan)加強。為(wei)進一步深化(hua)兩(liang)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)友好合作關(guan)系，2004年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)11月，主席與(yu)克拉克總理共同(tong)宣布(bu)啟動中(zhong)新(xin)(xin)(xin)自由貿易協(xie)定(ding)談(tan)判，由此拉開了(le)談(tan)判序幕。談(tan)判歷時三年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，兩(liang)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)領導人從中(zhong)新(xin)(xin)(xin)關(guan)系及兩(liang)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)經濟長遠(yuan)發(fa)展的(de)戰略高度，積極推(tui)動談(tan)判進程(cheng)。2006年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)4月，總理訪問新(xin)(xin)(xin)西(xi)蘭(lan)(lan)，與(yu)克拉克總理共同(tong)確定(ding)了(le)一至(zhi)兩(liang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)內(nei)達成全面(mian)、高質量、平衡以及為(wei)雙(shuang)方所接(jie)受的(de)自由貿易協(xie)定(ding)的(de)目標。2007年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，主席和總理又與(yu)克拉克總理多次會(hui)晤，不(bu)斷(duan)為(wei)談(tan)判注入(ru)動力(li)。經過(guo)三年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)15輪談(tan)判，2007年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)12月，雙(shuang)方最終就《協(xie)定(ding)》涉及的(de)所有問題達成一致。2008年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)4月7日，中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)與(yu)新(xin)(xin)(xin)西(xi)蘭(lan)(lan)簽署(shu)(shu)《中(zhong)華人民共和國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)政(zheng)(zheng)府和新(xin)(xin)(xin)西(xi)蘭(lan)(lan)政(zheng)(zheng)府自由貿易協(xie)定(ding)》，新(xin)(xin)(xin)西(xi)蘭(lan)(lan)成為(wei)首個與(yu)中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)簽署(shu)(shu)自由貿易協(xie)定(ding)(FTA)的(de)發(fa)達國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)。

(二)本次簽(qian)訂FTA的主要內容

中新(xin)(xin)(xin)協定的(de)(de)內容涵蓋了貨物(wu)貿易(yi)(yi)、服(fu)務(wu)貿易(yi)(yi)、投資等(deng)多個領域(yu)。根(gen)據該協定，新(xin)(xin)(xin)方(fang)承(cheng)(cheng)諾(nuo)(nuo)將在(zai)2016年1月(yue)1日(ri)前取消全(quan)部(bu)自華進口產品(pin)關稅(shui)，其中63.6％的(de)(de)產品(pin)從協定生效時起即實現(xian)零關稅(shui)。中方(fang)承(cheng)(cheng)諾(nuo)(nuo)將在(zai)2019年1月(yue)1日(ri)前取消97.2％自新(xin)(xin)(xin)西蘭進口的(de)(de)產品(pin)關稅(shui)，其中24.3％的(de)(de)產品(pin)從協定生效時起即實現(xian)零關稅(shui)。此(ci)外，雙方(fang)還(huan)就服(fu)務(wu)貿易(yi)(yi)做(zuo)出了高(gao)于世界貿易(yi)(yi)組(zu)織(zhi)的(de)(de)承(cheng)(cheng)諾(nuo)(nuo)，并對包括技術工人在(zai)內的(de)(de)人員流動做(zuo)出了具體規定。

二、中(zhong)國與新西蘭FTA談(tan)判成功(gong)的(de)意義及(ji)問題

1文獻綜述

1.1國(guo)(guo)外(wai)學者(zhe)關(guan)于(yu)FTA的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)相關(guan)研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)國(guo)(guo)外(wai)學者(zhe)從理論方(fang)面已經(jing)(jing)對(dui)(dui)FTA的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)成因、結構(gou)和影響(xiang)(xiang)等各(ge)方(fang)面進(jin)(jin)行了(le)(le)長(chang)期的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)。Balassa(1961)研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)了(le)(le)區(qu)(qu)(qu)域(yu)(yu)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)一(yi)(yi)(yi)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)化(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)界定問題，認(ren)為(wei)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)一(yi)(yi)(yi)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)化(hua)是(shi)(shi)各(ge)國(guo)(guo)國(guo)(guo)家之間經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)邊(bian)境逐步消失，最(zui)(zui)終融(rong)合成單一(yi)(yi)(yi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)實(shi)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)過程。他認(ren)為(wei)區(qu)(qu)(qu)域(yu)(yu)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)一(yi)(yi)(yi)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)化(hua)既是(shi)(shi)一(yi)(yi)(yi)種過程，又(you)是(shi)(shi)一(yi)(yi)(yi)種狀態。Jo-AnnCrawford,SamLaird(2001)分析(xi)了(le)(le)區(qu)(qu)(qu)域(yu)(yu)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)協定(RTAs)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)快速增長(chang)對(dui)(dui)多(duo)邊(bian)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)系的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影響(xiang)(xiang)，他認(ren)為(wei)并沒(mei)有(you)(you)傳(chuan)(chuan)統上的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)削弱(ruo)效(xiao)果。區(qu)(qu)(qu)域(yu)(yu)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)協定對(dui)(dui)最(zui)(zui)惠國(guo)(guo)待遇的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影響(xiang)(xiang)不大(da)，區(qu)(qu)(qu)域(yu)(yu)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)協定本(ben)身就是(shi)(shi)一(yi)(yi)(yi)種變通的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)最(zui)(zui)惠國(guo)(guo)待遇。自(zi)由貿(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)區(qu)(qu)(qu)本(ben)身有(you)(you)成員范圍小、更(geng)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)實(shi)行的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)優點(dian)，所以具有(you)(you)更(geng)廣泛的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)全球覆蓋。RichardBaldwinandDanyJaimovich(2008)研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)FTA是(shi)(shi)否具有(you)(you)一(yi)(yi)(yi)種“傳(chuan)(chuan)染性”，使用(yong)計量技(ji)術，測試簽署(shu)(shu)了(le)(le)自(zi)由貿(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)協定的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)伙伴(ban)國(guo)(guo)有(you)(you)沒(mei)有(you)(you)影響(xiang)(xiang)其(qi)他國(guo)(guo)家簽署(shu)(shu)新的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)自(zi)由貿(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)協定，同時考慮了(le)(le)其(qi)他政(zheng)治、經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)和地(di)理等因素，證(zheng)明這種傳(chuan)(chuan)染現(xian)象是(shi)(shi)普(pu)遍存在的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)。1.2國(guo)(guo)內(nei)學者(zhe)對(dui)(dui)FTA的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)實(shi)證(zheng)研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)國(guo)(guo)內(nei)學者(zhe)多(duo)數的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)是(shi)(shi)對(dui)(dui)單一(yi)(yi)(yi)FTA的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)。馬莉、胡超(2011)研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)了(le)(le)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)—東盟自(zi)由貿(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)區(qu)(qu)(qu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)效(xiao)應(ying)，認(ren)為(wei)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)與(yu)東盟形成FTA后，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)與(yu)東盟的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)量不斷(duan)擴(kuo)大(da)，貿(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)創造效(xiao)應(ying)明顯而貿(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)轉移效(xiao)應(ying)不明顯。呂宏(hong)芬、鄭(zheng)亞(ya)莉(2013)對(dui)(dui)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)—智(zhi)利自(zi)由貿(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)區(qu)(qu)(qu)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)效(xiao)應(ying)做(zuo)了(le)(le)定量分析(xi)，采用(yong)引力模型(xing)研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)兩國(guo)(guo)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)一(yi)(yi)(yi)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)化(hua)程度(du)，得出中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)—智(zhi)利FTA對(dui)(dui)于(yu)雙邊(bian)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)有(you)(you)一(yi)(yi)(yi)定促進(jin)(jin)作(zuo)用(yong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)結論。認(ren)為(wei)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)應(ying)該優化(hua)我國(guo)(guo)產(chan)品結構(gou)，改變勞動密集型(xing)產(chan)品過多(duo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)現(xian)狀，提高產(chan)品的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)附(fu)加值(zhi)，最(zui)(zui)大(da)限度(du)地(di)優化(hua)出口的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)商品結構(gou)。通過對(dui)(dui)以往文獻的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)回顧，大(da)部(bu)分研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)自(zi)由貿(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)區(qu)(qu)(qu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)文獻集中(zhong)(zhong)在中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)—東盟自(zi)由貿(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)區(qu)(qu)(qu)，另有(you)(you)少部(bu)分學者(zhe)研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)與(yu)巴基斯坦、中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)與(yu)智(zhi)利、中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)與(yu)新西蘭(lan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)FTA等。而對(dui)(dui)于(yu)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)與(yu)秘魯(lu)自(zi)由貿(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)區(qu)(qu)(qu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)幾(ji)乎沒(mei)有(you)(you)。另外(wai)，在數據的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)選取上，大(da)多(duo)學者(zhe)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)使用(yong)數據樣本(ben)較少，無法在中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)100多(duo)個貿(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)伙伴(ban)國(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)大(da)背景(jing)下全面考察自(zi)由貿(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)區(qu)(qu)(qu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)效(xiao)果。本(ben)文采用(yong)131個貿(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)伙伴(ban)國(guo)(guo)10年的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)數據，對(dui)(dui)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)—秘魯(lu)FTA進(jin)(jin)行全面分析(xi)。

2中(zhong)國與(yu)秘魯的貿易狀況和(he)特點

中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)與秘魯(lu)自由貿(mao)易(yi)區(qu)始(shi)于2007年(nian)(nian)9月7日(ri)，中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)秘魯(lu)自由貿(mao)易(yi)區(qu)可行性聯合研究報告，經過一(yi)系列的(de)談判，于2009年(nian)(nian)4月28日(ri)簽(qian)(qian)署了《中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)—秘魯(lu)自由貿(mao)易(yi)協定(ding)(ding)》，是中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)與拉美國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家簽(qian)(qian)署的(de)第一(yi)個(ge)全面的(de)貿(mao)易(yi)協定(ding)(ding)，主(zhu)要(yao)包(bao)括(kuo)貨物(wu)(wu)貿(mao)易(yi)、服務貿(mao)易(yi)和(he)投資(zi)(zi)協定(ding)(ding)三(san)部分。2009年(nian)(nian)3月1日(ri)正式實(shi)施，貨物(wu)(wu)貿(mao)易(yi)方(fang)面，90%以(yi)上的(de)產品逐步(bu)(bu)實(shi)施零關稅；服務貿(mao)易(yi)方(fang)面，進(jin)(jin)一(yi)步(bu)(bu)開(kai)發服務部門，包(bao)括(kuo)農(nong)業、采(cai)礦、導游、體育、旅游等部門；投資(zi)(zi)方(fang)面，雙(shuang)方(fang)將相互(hu)給與對(dui)方(fang)投資(zi)(zi)者國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)民待遇(yu)、最惠國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)待遇(yu)等，為(wei)雙(shuang)方(fang)投資(zi)(zi)提供(gong)便(bian)利。十年(nian)(nian)來，中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)對(dui)秘魯(lu)的(de)進(jin)(jin)出(chu)(chu)口(kou)(kou)額除2009年(nian)(nian)以(yi)外，在(zai)(zai)其他年(nian)(nian)份均呈現出(chu)(chu)較(jiao)高增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)的(de)態勢。2004年(nian)(nian)秘魯(lu)對(dui)中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)出(chu)(chu)口(kou)(kou)額同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)100.44%，進(jin)(jin)出(chu)(chu)口(kou)(kou)總(zong)額同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)74.35%。中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)與秘魯(lu)雙(shuang)方(fang)在(zai)(zai)2010年(nian)(nian)實(shi)施FTA，對(dui)當年(nian)(nian)的(de)進(jin)(jin)出(chu)(chu)口(kou)(kou)有較(jiao)大影響。2010年(nian)(nian)進(jin)(jin)出(chu)(chu)口(kou)(kou)總(zong)額由2009年(nian)(nian)62.69億(yi)美元(yuan)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)為(wei)96.68億(yi)美元(yuan)；出(chu)(chu)口(kou)(kou)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)率(lv)由-24.23%變為(wei)69.23%；進(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)率(lv)由-10.83%增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)為(wei)46.67%。但是2011年(nian)(nian)和(he)2012年(nian)(nian)的(de)數據顯示，中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)與秘魯(lu)進(jin)(jin)出(chu)(chu)口(kou)(kou)金額的(de)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)率(lv)有所放緩(huan)：分別為(wei)29.51%和(he)10.28%。

3CPFTA貿易(yi)效應的模型設(she)定

引(yin)力模型(xing)一(yi)直是(shi)FTA效應(ying)定量(liang)研(yan)究中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)最常使(shi)用的(de)(de)(de)(de)模型(xing)。本文基(ji)(ji)(ji)于傳統的(de)(de)(de)(de)引(yin)力模型(xing)(GDP和(he)距離兩個解釋變量(liang))并在(zai)其基(ji)(ji)(ji)礎上進行改進。采用的(de)(de)(de)(de)引(yin)力。其中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，表(biao)(biao)示中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)大(da)(da)陸(lu)(lu)(lu)在(zai)t年(nian)(nian)時(shi)(shi)對(dui)(dui)j國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家的(de)(de)(de)(de)出口量(liang)；表(biao)(biao)示中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)大(da)(da)陸(lu)(lu)(lu)在(zai)t年(nian)(nian)時(shi)(shi)對(dui)(dui)j國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家的(de)(de)(de)(de)進口量(liang)；代表(biao)(biao)在(zai)t年(nian)(nian)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)大(da)(da)陸(lu)(lu)(lu)與伙伴(ban)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)j的(de)(de)(de)(de)GDP乘積(ji)(ji)；表(biao)(biao)示t年(nian)(nian)時(shi)(shi)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)大(da)(da)陸(lu)(lu)(lu)與伙伴(ban)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)人(ren)口量(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)乘積(ji)(ji)；Distcap表(biao)(biao)示兩國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)首都之間的(de)(de)(de)(de)地理距離；是(shi)一(yi)個虛擬(ni)(ni)變量(liang)，表(biao)(biao)示中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)大(da)(da)陸(lu)(lu)(lu)是(shi)否與j國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家簽署FTA(中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)與秘魯FTA簽訂年(nian)(nian)份后取值為(wei)(wei)1，簽訂之前年(nian)(nian)份為(wei)(wei)0)；表(biao)(biao)示中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)大(da)(da)陸(lu)(lu)(lu)是(shi)否與j國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)接壤(rang)。根據(ju)(ju)引(yin)力模型(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)基(ji)(ji)(ji)本理論：GDP的(de)(de)(de)(de)影響(xiang)應(ying)該(gai)為(wei)(wei)正，人(ren)口的(de)(de)(de)(de)影響(xiang)由于市場容量(liang)大(da)(da)小作用不確定，距離的(de)(de)(de)(de)影響(xiang)應(ying)該(gai)為(wei)(wei)負，FTA與相(xiang)鄰性應(ying)該(gai)有積(ji)(ji)極的(de)(de)(de)(de)影響(xiang)。數(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)剔除了(le)除秘魯外(wai)和(he)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)建立FTA的(de)(de)(de)(de)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(東盟十國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)、新西(xi)蘭、巴基(ji)(ji)(ji)斯(si)坦等)，防止其他FTA對(dui)(dui)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)—秘魯FTA的(de)(de)(de)(de)干擾，以(yi)保障實證結果的(de)(de)(de)(de)真實性。其中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)對(dui)(dui)其他國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家進口和(he)出口的(de)(de)(de)(de)數(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)來(lai)源于IMF數(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)庫(ku)；GDP和(he)人(ren)口數(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)均來(lai)自(zi)世界銀(yin)行數(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)庫(ku)；距離數(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)來(lai)自(zi)CIA數(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)庫(ku)；兩個虛擬(ni)(ni)變量(liang)FTA和(he)Conadj數(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)來(lai)源于中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)自(zi)由貿易(yi)區服(fu)務(wu)網。

摘要：中國和(he)俄(e)羅斯具有深遠的(de)傳統友誼(yi)和(he)漫長(chang)的(de)國境線(xian)，因而(er)具備了開展國際貿(mao)易的(de)優越客觀條件。在(zai)“一(yi)(yi)帶(dai)一(yi)(yi)路(lu)”的(de)大背景下(xia)，如何提升雙邊(bian)經(jing)貿(mao)合(he)作的(de)水平(ping)，成(cheng)為中俄(e)兩國都需要研(yan)究的(de)重點問(wen)題。本文將(jiang)深入(ru)分析當(dang)下(xia)中俄(e)兩國經(jing)貿(mao)合(he)作的(de)發(fa)展現狀，并指出(chu)其(qi)中存在(zai)的(de)問(wen)題。在(zai)此基礎上，筆者將(jiang)通過深入(ru)研(yan)究，提出(chu)加強雙邊(bian)經(jing)貿(mao)合(he)作水平(ping)、解決雙邊(bian)經(jing)貿(mao)合(he)作中出(chu)現的(de)問(wen)題的(de)針對性措施(shi)，以推(tui)動雙邊(bian)經(jing)貿(mao)合(he)作的(de)進一(yi)(yi)步發(fa)展。

關鍵詞：“一帶(dai)一路(lu)”；雙邊經貿合作(zuo)

中(zhong)俄雙方(fang)(fang)都是(shi)對方(fang)(fang)的(de)最(zui)大鄰國(guo)，兩國(guo)之間(jian)有漫長的(de)國(guo)境線。隨著經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟全球化的(de)不斷發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)，中(zhong)俄雙方(fang)(fang)的(de)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)量(liang)正在(zai)(zai)不斷提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)。在(zai)(zai)現階(jie)段(duan)，中(zhong)國(guo)已經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)成為俄羅斯(si)最(zui)大的(de)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)伙(huo)伴。與此(ci)同(tong)時，俄羅斯(si)在(zai)(zai)中(zhong)國(guo)對外經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)領域匯(hui)總(zong)的(de)地位也(ye)(ye)在(zai)(zai)逐步(bu)上升(sheng)。隨著“一(yi)帶(dai)一(yi)路”的(de)提(ti)(ti)出(chu)，中(zhong)俄雙邊經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)合作進入(ru)了新的(de)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)階(jie)段(duan)。在(zai)(zai)當下，中(zhong)俄雙方(fang)(fang)的(de)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)合作層次正在(zai)(zai)不斷深化，合作的(de)規模(mo)、領域與合作模(mo)式也(ye)(ye)處在(zai)(zai)不斷發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)的(de)過(guo)程中(zhong)。從總(zong)體上看，中(zhong)俄雙邊經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)合作發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)勢頭良(liang)好。然而必須看到的(de)是(shi)，在(zai)(zai)現階(jie)段(duan)，雙方(fang)(fang)的(de)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)合作還存在(zai)(zai)一(yi)些(xie)需(xu)要解決(jue)(jue)的(de)問(wen)(wen)題(ti)(ti)。這些(xie)問(wen)(wen)題(ti)(ti)不僅(jin)嚴重制約了中(zhong)俄雙方(fang)(fang)的(de)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)合作進一(yi)步(bu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)，而且嚴重影響了“一(yi)帶(dai)一(yi)路”進一(yi)步(bu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)。因此(ci)，想要促(cu)進中(zhong)俄雙邊經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)合作的(de)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)，就必須對這些(xie)問(wen)(wen)題(ti)(ti)加以解決(jue)(jue)。

一(yi)、中俄共(gong)同建設“一(yi)帶一(yi)路”下雙邊經貿合作發展(zhan)現狀(zhuang)

1.中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)俄(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)兩國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)貿(mao)(mao)合(he)(he)(he)作(zuo)層(ceng)次(ci)不(bu)(bu)(bu)斷(duan)(duan)(duan)(duan)(duan)深化。“一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)帶一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)路(lu)”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)提出(chu)，對中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)俄(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)方(fang)(fang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)與(yu)(yu)合(he)(he)(he)作(zuo)起到(dao)了(le)(le)(le)很(hen)大(da)(da)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)促進(jin)作(zuo)用(yong)。在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)這(zhe)樣的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)情況下(xia)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)俄(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)方(fang)(fang)展(zhan)(zhan)開(kai)了(le)(le)(le)全方(fang)(fang)位的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)合(he)(he)(he)作(zuo)，合(he)(he)(he)作(zuo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)層(ceng)次(ci)正(zheng)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)不(bu)(bu)(bu)斷(duan)(duan)(duan)(duan)(duan)深化。具體(ti)來(lai)(lai)說(shuo)，首(shou)(shou)先，在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)政治層(ceng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)，近(jin)年(nian)(nian)來(lai)(lai)，兩國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)政要(yao)之(zhi)間(jian)通過(guo)多次(ci)定期或不(bu)(bu)(bu)定期的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)會晤(wu)，針對經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)貿(mao)(mao)合(he)(he)(he)作(zuo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)相關問題(ti)進(jin)行了(le)(le)(le)深入磋商，并建立了(le)(le)(le)絲路(lu)基金(jin)(jin)等金(jin)(jin)融(rong)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)平臺。在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)金(jin)(jin)融(rong)層(ceng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)，現階段，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)俄(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)方(fang)(fang)已(yi)(yi)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)啟動了(le)(le)(le)人(ren)民(min)幣清算(suan)合(he)(he)(he)作(zuo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)機制(zhi)。兩國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)之(zhi)間(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)貨(huo)幣結算(suan)業(ye)務也逐(zhu)步(bu)從(cong)(cong)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)境城市向內地擴(kuo)展(zhan)(zhan)。而(er)(er)與(yu)(yu)此同(tong)時(shi)(shi)，兩國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)商業(ye)銀行都(dou)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)對方(fang)(fang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)領(ling)(ling)土內開(kai)設了(le)(le)(le)分(fen)支機構或代表處(chu)，進(jin)一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)步(bu)加(jia)強了(le)(le)(le)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)方(fang)(fang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)金(jin)(jin)融(rong)合(he)(he)(he)作(zuo)。2.中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)俄(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)兩國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)貿(mao)(mao)合(he)(he)(he)作(zuo)規(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)不(bu)(bu)(bu)斷(duan)(duan)(duan)(duan)(duan)擴(kuo)大(da)(da)。在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)“一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)帶一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)路(lu)”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)促進(jin)作(zuo)用(yong)下(xia)，雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)方(fang)(fang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)貿(mao)(mao)合(he)(he)(he)作(zuo)規(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)正(zheng)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)不(bu)(bu)(bu)斷(duan)(duan)(duan)(duan)(duan)擴(kuo)大(da)(da)。具體(ti)來(lai)(lai)說(shuo)，首(shou)(shou)先，雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)方(fang)(fang)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)金(jin)(jin)融(rong)領(ling)(ling)域(yu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)合(he)(he)(he)作(zuo)規(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)正(zheng)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)不(bu)(bu)(bu)斷(duan)(duan)(duan)(duan)(duan)擴(kuo)大(da)(da)。其次(ci)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)餓雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)方(fang)(fang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)貿(mao)(mao)合(he)(he)(he)作(zuo)，無論是(shi)(shi)(shi)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟規(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)還是(shi)(shi)(shi)交易(yi)數量都(dou)呈現逐(zhu)年(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)態勢(shi)(shi)。隨(sui)著“一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)帶一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)路(lu)”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)不(bu)(bu)(bu)斷(duan)(duan)(duan)(duan)(duan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)，在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)現階段，我國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)與(yu)(yu)俄(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)羅(luo)斯(si)企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)之(zhi)間(jian)簽訂了(le)(le)(le)多個合(he)(he)(he)作(zuo)項目協議，涉及到(dao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)交易(yi)金(jin)(jin)額與(yu)(yu)交易(yi)數量越來(lai)(lai)越大(da)(da)。早在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)2014年(nian)(nian)，雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)方(fang)(fang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)總額就已(yi)(yi)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)接近(jin)1000億(yi)美元(yuan)(yuan)。在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)2015年(nian)(nian)，雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)總額有所回(hui)落(luo)。而(er)(er)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)2017年(nian)(nian)，雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)總額恢(hui)復(fu)到(dao)840.71億(yi)美元(yuan)(yuan)。雖(sui)然與(yu)(yu)最高峰時(shi)(shi)期的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)900余億(yi)美元(yuan)(yuan)相比有所下(xia)降，但隨(sui)著“一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)帶一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)路(lu)”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)護短(duan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)，可(ke)以預見的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)是(shi)(shi)(shi)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)俄(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)必(bi)將取得進(jin)一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)步(bu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)。3.中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)俄(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)兩國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)貿(mao)(mao)合(he)(he)(he)作(zuo)領(ling)(ling)域(yu)不(bu)(bu)(bu)斷(duan)(duan)(duan)(duan)(duan)拓寬(kuan)。在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)很(hen)長時(shi)(shi)間(jian)以來(lai)(lai)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)俄(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)之(zhi)間(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)都(dou)以中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)從(cong)(cong)俄(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)羅(luo)斯(si)進(jin)口能(neng)源、礦(kuang)產(chan)、化工產(chan)品，向俄(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)羅(luo)斯(si)出(chu)口服(fu)(fu)裝、家電(dian)、日用(yong)品等輕(qing)工業(ye)產(chan)品為(wei)主。然而(er)(er)隨(sui)著兩國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟和(he)(he)科技(ji)(ji)實力(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)，在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)現階段，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)俄(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)已(yi)(yi)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)從(cong)(cong)這(zhe)些傳統(tong)領(ling)(ling)域(yu)逐(zhu)步(bu)擴(kuo)展(zhan)(zhan)到(dao)電(dian)子產(chan)品、工業(ye)設備(bei)等技(ji)(ji)術含量更(geng)高的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)領(ling)(ling)域(yu)。然而(er)(er)必(bi)須看到(dao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)是(shi)(shi)(shi)，在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)當下(xia)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)俄(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)之(zhi)間(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)境線距離(li)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)方(fang)(fang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)心都(dou)有很(hen)長的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)距離(li)，這(zhe)對于雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)合(he)(he)(he)作(zuo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)展(zhan)(zhan)開(kai)是(shi)(shi)(shi)不(bu)(bu)(bu)利的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)。在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)“一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)帶一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)路(lu)”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)大(da)(da)背景下(xia)，想要(yao)促進(jin)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)進(jin)一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)步(bu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)，就必(bi)須解決(jue)這(zhe)一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)問題(ti)。4.中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)俄(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)兩國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)貿(mao)(mao)合(he)(he)(he)作(zuo)模(mo)(mo)(mo)式(shi)不(bu)(bu)(bu)斷(duan)(duan)(duan)(duan)(duan)創新(xin)。在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)合(he)(he)(he)作(zuo)模(mo)(mo)(mo)式(shi)方(fang)(fang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)俄(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)之(zhi)間(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)邊(bian)(bian)(bian)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)貿(mao)(mao)合(he)(he)(he)作(zuo)已(yi)(yi)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)從(cong)(cong)傳統(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)進(jin)出(chu)口貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)逐(zhu)步(bu)向雙(shuang)(shuang)(shuang)方(fang)(fang)互相之(zhi)間(jian)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)轉變。在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)最近(jin)幾年(nian)(nian)，俄(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)羅(luo)斯(si)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟形勢(shi)(shi)正(zheng)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)逐(zhu)步(bu)好轉，吸(xi)引了(le)(le)(le)全世界投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)者的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)目光(guang)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)也在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)這(zhe)一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)大(da)(da)好機遇(yu)面(mian)(mian)(mian)前不(bu)(bu)(bu)甘落(luo)后，不(bu)(bu)(bu)斷(duan)(duan)(duan)(duan)(duan)擴(kuo)大(da)(da)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)俄(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)羅(luo)斯(si)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)規(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)。與(yu)(yu)此同(tong)時(shi)(shi)，俄(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)羅(luo)斯(si)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)也呈現大(da)(da)幅度增(zeng)(zeng)長的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)趨勢(shi)(shi)。然而(er)(er)從(cong)(cong)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)總量上(shang)看，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)俄(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)羅(luo)斯(si)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)要(yao)遠(yuan)遠(yuan)超(chao)過(guo)俄(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)羅(luo)斯(si)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)。而(er)(er)從(cong)(cong)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)領(ling)(ling)域(yu)上(shang)看，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)俄(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)羅(luo)斯(si)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)項目主要(yao)集(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)于農業(ye)、林業(ye)、礦(kuang)業(ye)、制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)和(he)(he)服(fu)(fu)務業(ye)。而(er)(er)俄(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)羅(luo)斯(si)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)則主要(yao)集(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)于制(zhi)造(zao)、建筑與(yu)(yu)物流(liu)運輸(shu)方(fang)(fang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)。

二、中(zhong)俄(e)共同建設“一(yi)帶(dai)一(yi)路”下雙(shuang)邊經貿合作發展(zhan)存(cun)在(zai)的問題(ti)