導語：土地資(zi)源的(de)可耕性及(ji)保護策略一文來源于網友上傳，不代表(biao)本站觀點，若(ruo)需(xu)要原創文章可咨(zi)詢(xun)客(ke)服老師(shi)，歡(huan)迎(ying)參考。

摘要：人多地少是中國的基本國情，人均耕地面積大約只有世界平均水平的1/3。突破現有耕地保護內涵對重新認識耕地保護具有重要意義，能更大程度保障國家糧食安全。該研究界定可耕地內涵，運用生態位模型和GIS空間分析法對全國范圍內的土地開展可耕性評價，測算可耕地規模和空間布局，分析可耕地與現狀耕地空間沖突，并提出耕地保護轉型策略。結果表明：1）可耕地數量充足，約為現狀耕地的2.05倍，主要分布在胡煥庸線以東區域。2）可耕地質量從東南向西北呈階層分布，質量逐漸降低。3）可耕地與現狀耕地存在空間錯配，16.83%的現狀耕地分布在不可耕作區。可耕地的提出為耕地保護轉型提供了方向，可耕性評價有助于摸清中國可以耕作的土地資源本底，開展可耕地(di)(di)分(fen)級(ji)分(fen)區(qu)(qu)保護并依據分(fen)級(ji)分(fen)區(qu)(qu)結果適當調整現狀耕地(di)(di)、新增(zeng)耕地(di)(di)布局，進而實現良田糧用，確保國家(jia)糧食(shi)出現危機時及時提供足量的耕地(di)(di)投(tou)入農業生產。

關(guan)鍵詞：耕(geng)地；模(mo)型；可耕(geng)性評價；耕(geng)地保護轉型；空間(jian)沖突；生態位(wei)模(mo)型

引(yin)言：?中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)一(yi)(yi)(yi)直(zhi)實(shi)(shi)行(xing)最嚴(yan)格(ge)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)制(zhi)(zhi)度(du)(du)以(yi)(yi)確保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)，但在(zai)漫長(chang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)過(guo)(guo)程(cheng)中(zhong)(zhong)，耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)思維逐漸固化(hua)(hua)(hua)。在(zai)農(nong)業發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)時(shi)(shi)(shi)期(qi)，凡是能(neng)(neng)進(jin)(jin)行(xing)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)均可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)開(kai)(kai)墾整理(li)為(wei)(wei)農(nong)田，即耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)。農(nong)民以(yi)(yi)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)為(wei)(wei)生(sheng)，對(dui)農(nong)田格(ge)外(wai)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)。然而，當(dang)前(qian)(qian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)主要(yao)指現(xian)(xian)(xian)狀(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)認(ren)定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)為(wei)(wei)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)，耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)亦只是保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)現(xian)(xian)(xian)狀(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)認(ren)定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)為(wei)(wei)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)部分(fen)，而現(xian)(xian)(xian)狀(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)為(wei)(wei)其(qi)他用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)類(lei)型(xing)中(zhong)(zhong)具(ju)(ju)有(you)(you)(you)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)能(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)，并(bing)(bing)未得到(dao)(dao)等(deng)同于(yu)(yu)(yu)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)效(xiao)力(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)強(qiang)度(du)(du)，而使其(qi)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)層遭到(dao)(dao)破(po)(po)壞(huai)，進(jin)(jin)而失去耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)能(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)。此(ci)(ci)外(wai)，通過(guo)(guo)三(san)輪的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)調查(cha)結(jie)(jie)果(guo)(guo)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)知，同一(yi)(yi)(yi)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)塊(kuai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)類(lei)型(xing)在(zai)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)和(he)非耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)間(jian)來(lai)(lai)回轉(zhuan)變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)，新增(zeng)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)認(ren)定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)標準也一(yi)(yi)(yi)直(zhi)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)化(hua)(hua)(hua)，導致農(nong)民及(ji)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)方(fang)(fang)政府對(dui)何為(wei)(wei)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)及(ji)何為(wei)(wei)新增(zeng)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)缺乏清晰的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)判斷，致使耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)因(yin)(yin)(yin)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)現(xian)(xian)(xian)狀(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)化(hua)(hua)(hua)而變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)化(hua)(hua)(hua)，耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)效(xiao)益未能(neng)(neng)長(chang)期(qi)持(chi)續。因(yin)(yin)(yin)此(ci)(ci)，要(yao)實(shi)(shi)現(xian)(xian)(xian)長(chang)時(shi)(shi)(shi)期(qi)、可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)持(chi)續的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)目(mu)標，需(xu)要(yao)確定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)相(xiang)對(dui)穩(wen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)對(dui)象(xiang)，實(shi)(shi)現(xian)(xian)(xian)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)“一(yi)(yi)(yi)張藍圖繪到(dao)(dao)底”。當(dang)前(qian)(qian)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)社會經濟高(gao)速(su)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)，貿(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)球化(hua)(hua)(hua)給(gei)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)進(jin)(jin)出(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)口(kou)(kou)帶(dai)(dai)(dai)來(lai)(lai)便(bian)利(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)同時(shi)(shi)(shi)亦帶(dai)(dai)(dai)來(lai)(lai)巨(ju)大(da)(da)風險(xian)。據(ju)(ju)(ju)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)統(tong)計年鑒數(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)(ju)顯示，截至2020年，大(da)(da)豆進(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)高(gao)達10033萬t，占糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)總進(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)量(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)70.34%，而國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內大(da)(da)豆產(chan)(chan)量(liang)僅(jin)1960.2萬t。糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)進(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)相(xiang)當(dang)于(yu)(yu)(yu)進(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)大(da)(da)量(liang)虛擬耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)，有(you)(you)(you)助于(yu)(yu)(yu)緩解中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)壓(ya)力(li)(li)(li)[1]，但是全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)球貿(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)存在(zai)巨(ju)大(da)(da)不(bu)(bu)穩(wen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)性(xing)(xing)(xing)，隨時(shi)(shi)(shi)都有(you)(you)(you)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)能(neng)(neng)因(yin)(yin)(yin)為(wei)(wei)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)爭(zheng)端、極端氣候、全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)球性(xing)(xing)(xing)疫情等(deng)造成(cheng)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)受阻(zu)，威脅(xie)(xie)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)，這進(jin)(jin)一(yi)(yi)(yi)步彰顯了立(li)足(zu)(zu)本國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)自身資源(yuan)稟(bing)賦(fu)建立(li)穩(wen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)對(dui)象(xiang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)重要(yao)性(xing)(xing)(xing)。因(yin)(yin)(yin)此(ci)(ci)，僅(jin)僅(jin)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)現(xian)(xian)(xian)狀(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)并(bing)(bing)不(bu)(bu)能(neng)(neng)從(cong)本質上(shang)解決(jue)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)需(xu)要(yao)，唯“紅線論”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)強(qiang)度(du)(du)并(bing)(bing)不(bu)(bu)能(neng)(neng)完全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)應(ying)對(dui)突發(fa)(fa)狀(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)況下的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)底線要(yao)求(qiu)。要(yao)想實(shi)(shi)現(xian)(xian)(xian)飯碗牢(lao)(lao)牢(lao)(lao)端在(zai)自己手中(zhong)(zhong)，就(jiu)要(yao)儲備充(chong)足(zu)(zu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)具(ju)(ju)有(you)(you)(you)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)以(yi)(yi)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)能(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)（本研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)稱之為(wei)(wei)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)），以(yi)(yi)便(bian)在(zai)突發(fa)(fa)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)問(wen)(wen)題時(shi)(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)快(kuai)速(su)投(tou)入生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)確保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)口(kou)(kou)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)。相(xiang)較于(yu)(yu)(yu)經常變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)化(hua)(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)現(xian)(xian)(xian)狀(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)，可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)是依據(ju)(ju)(ju)生(sheng)態(tai)、氣候、地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)形、土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)壤等(deng)條(tiao)件綜合(he)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)得出(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)結(jie)(jie)果(guo)(guo)，不(bu)(bu)以(yi)(yi)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)現(xian)(xian)(xian)狀(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)類(lei)型(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)改變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)而改變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)，更(geng)具(ju)(ju)有(you)(you)(you)穩(wen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)性(xing)(xing)(xing)，有(you)(you)(you)利(li)(li)于(yu)(yu)(yu)長(chang)久推進(jin)(jin)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)，實(shi)(shi)現(xian)(xian)(xian)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)效(xiao)益長(chang)期(qi)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)持(chi)續，進(jin)(jin)而保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)障國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)。通過(guo)(guo)已有(you)(you)(you)研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)發(fa)(fa)現(xian)(xian)(xian)，學(xue)(xue)界有(you)(you)(you)關專家(jia)(jia)學(xue)(xue)者就(jiu)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)障國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)問(wen)(wen)題已開(kai)(kai)展(zhan)了大(da)(da)量(liang)研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)。主要(yao)聚焦在(zai)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)質量(liang)提(ti)升(sheng)[2-3]、耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)識別與(yu)監管[4]、國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)[5-6]、耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)政策演變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)路(lu)徑[7-9]、耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)制(zhi)(zhi)度(du)(du)演進(jin)(jin)規律[10-11]、耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)“三(san)位一(yi)(yi)(yi)體”保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)機(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)[12]、糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)存在(zai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)問(wen)(wen)題挑戰與(yu)展(zhan)望[13-15]等(deng)方(fang)(fang)面，從(cong)不(bu)(bu)同角度(du)(du)對(dui)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)和(he)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)進(jin)(jin)行(xing)研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)，對(dui)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)障國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)做(zuo)出(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)了巨(ju)大(da)(da)貢獻，但是現(xian)(xian)(xian)有(you)(you)(you)研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)大(da)(da)多(duo)(duo)依托于(yu)(yu)(yu)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)調查(cha)數(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)(ju)，即現(xian)(xian)(xian)狀(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)類(lei)型(xing)為(wei)(wei)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)。部分(fen)學(xue)(xue)者則(ze)(ze)有(you)(you)(you)意摸(mo)清中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)資源(yuan)家(jia)(jia)底，剔除數(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)(ju)庫中(zhong)(zhong)為(wei)(wei)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)實(shi)(shi)則(ze)(ze)不(bu)(bu)為(wei)(wei)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)圖斑，采用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)人工實(shi)(shi)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)調查(cha)與(yu)遙(yao)感影(ying)像識別相(xiang)結(jie)(jie)合(he)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)方(fang)(fang)法精準定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)位耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)[16]，這種方(fang)(fang)法雖然能(neng)(neng)較準確地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)摸(mo)清耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)實(shi)(shi)際數(shu)(shu)量(liang)及(ji)空(kong)間(jian)布(bu)局(ju)，但仍是以(yi)(yi)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)實(shi)(shi)際投(tou)入耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)種為(wei)(wei)依據(ju)(ju)(ju)，即土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)上(shang)實(shi)(shi)際種植(zhi)了糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)作(zuo)物(wu)(wu)，此(ci)(ci)方(fang)(fang)法并(bing)(bing)不(bu)(bu)能(neng)(neng)摸(mo)清中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)實(shi)(shi)際可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)以(yi)(yi)進(jin)(jin)行(xing)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)數(shu)(shu)量(liang)及(ji)空(kong)間(jian)布(bu)局(ju)。有(you)(you)(you)學(xue)(xue)者打破(po)(po)現(xian)(xian)(xian)狀(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)限(xian)(xian)制(zhi)(zhi)，以(yi)(yi)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)宜耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)性(xing)(xing)(xing)為(wei)(wei)切(qie)入點(dian)，開(kai)(kai)展(zhan)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)后備資源(yuan)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)[17-19]、特定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)宜耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)性(xing)(xing)(xing)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)[20-21]等(deng)。可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)見，目(mu)前(qian)(qian)有(you)(you)(you)關土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)宜耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)性(xing)(xing)(xing)研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)大(da)(da)多(duo)(duo)為(wei)(wei)局(ju)部區(qu)(qu)域研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)，研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)對(dui)象(xiang)多(duo)(duo)為(wei)(wei)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)后備資源(yuan)或者現(xian)(xian)(xian)狀(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)資源(yuan)，缺少全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)性(xing)(xing)(xing)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)宜耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)性(xing)(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)，且研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)方(fang)(fang)法主要(yao)有(you)(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)制(zhi)(zhi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)因(yin)(yin)(yin)子法[17-19]、變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)權模型(xing)[22]、生(sheng)態(tai)位模型(xing)[23]等(deng)。為(wei)(wei)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)障國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)，應(ying)及(ji)時(shi)(shi)(shi)摸(mo)清中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)基本情況，以(yi)(yi)便(bian)對(dui)其(qi)及(ji)時(shi)(shi)(shi)加以(yi)(yi)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)，避免因(yin)(yin)(yin)疏(shu)于(yu)(yu)(yu)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)而令其(qi)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)層破(po)(po)壞(huai)，致使其(qi)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)性(xing)(xing)(xing)喪失，生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)減(jian)少，威脅(xie)(xie)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)。此(ci)(ci)外(wai)，探(tan)究(jiu)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)本底，最大(da)(da)程(cheng)度(du)(du)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)所(suo)有(you)(you)(you)具(ju)(ju)有(you)(you)(you)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)功能(neng)(neng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)是大(da)(da)勢所(suo)趨。雖然部分(fen)學(xue)(xue)者運(yun)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)多(duo)(duo)情景模擬測(ce)算以(yi)(yi)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)為(wei)(wei)底線約束下的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)所(suo)需(xu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)有(you)(you)(you)量(liang)，認(ren)為(wei)(wei)現(xian)(xian)(xian)有(you)(you)(you)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)數(shu)(shu)量(liang)足(zu)(zu)以(yi)(yi)維持(chi)長(chang)期(qi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)[24]，但是，也有(you)(you)(you)學(xue)(xue)者從(cong)吃飽和(he)吃好語境的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)視(shi)角對(dui)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)目(mu)標進(jin)(jin)行(xing)數(shu)(shu)理(li)預判，研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)認(ren)為(wei)(wei)隨著(zhu)經濟的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)不(bu)(bu)斷發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)，居民物(wu)(wu)質生(sheng)活水(shui)平的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)提(ti)高(gao)，居民膳(shan)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)結(jie)(jie)構不(bu)(bu)斷升(sheng)級(ji)，口(kou)(kou)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)直(zhi)接消費量(liang)減(jian)少，而動物(wu)(wu)性(xing)(xing)(xing)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)品(pin)（肉蛋奶）、蔬(shu)菜、瓜果(guo)(guo)消費量(liang)增(zeng)加[25-26]，根據(ju)(ju)(ju)能(neng)(neng)量(liang)遞減(jian)定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)律，畜(chu)禽產(chan)(chan)品(pin)消費量(liang)增(zeng)加導致間(jian)接糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)消費量(liang)增(zeng)加，因(yin)(yin)(yin)此(ci)(ci)需(xu)要(yao)更(geng)多(duo)(duo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，而對(dui)蔬(shu)菜、瓜果(guo)(guo)需(xu)求(qiu)量(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)上(shang)升(sheng)則(ze)(ze)需(xu)要(yao)更(geng)多(duo)(duo)種植(zhi)蔬(shu)菜和(he)瓜果(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)，在(zai)兼(jian)顧“吃飽+吃好”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)雙重情境下，耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)供應(ying)仍有(you)(you)(you)不(bu)(bu)足(zu)(zu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風險(xian)[27]。因(yin)(yin)(yin)此(ci)(ci)，為(wei)(wei)避免過(guo)(guo)度(du)(du)依賴國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)易(yi)(yi)所(suo)帶(dai)(dai)(dai)來(lai)(lai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)風險(xian)及(ji)滿足(zu)(zu)人民日益增(zeng)長(chang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)多(duo)(duo)樣(yang)化(hua)(hua)(hua)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)物(wu)(wu)需(xu)求(qiu)，最大(da)(da)限(xian)(xian)度(du)(du)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)障國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)，一(yi)(yi)(yi)味“節流”并(bing)(bing)不(bu)(bu)是長(chang)久之計，更(geng)應(ying)該(gai)“開(kai)(kai)源(yuan)”，而可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)正是重要(yao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)“源(yuan)”之一(yi)(yi)(yi)。將耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)向可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)轉(zhuan)變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)，擴大(da)(da)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)范圍，最大(da)(da)限(xian)(xian)度(du)(du)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)珍(zhen)貴的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)資源(yuan)，為(wei)(wei)糧(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)預留出(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)更(geng)多(duo)(duo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)空(kong)間(jian)。基于(yu)(yu)(yu)此(ci)(ci)，本研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)提(ti)出(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)概(gai)念(nian)，界定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)概(gai)念(nian)內涵，利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)生(sheng)態(tai)位模型(xing)測(ce)算可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)潛(qian)力(li)(li)(li)及(ji)其(qi)空(kong)間(jian)分(fen)布(bu)特征(zheng)，構建耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)轉(zhuan)型(xing)策略，以(yi)(yi)期(qi)最大(da)(da)限(xian)(xian)度(du)(du)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)(hu)更(geng)多(duo)(duo)具(ju)(ju)有(you)(you)(you)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)能(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)資源(yuan)，促進(jin)(jin)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)社會、經濟、生(sheng)態(tai)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)持(chi)續發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)，并(bing)(bing)在(zai)一(yi)(yi)(yi)定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)程(cheng)度(du)(du)上(shang)為(wei)(wei)新一(yi)(yi)(yi)輪國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)空(kong)間(jian)規劃編制(zhi)(zhi)提(ti)供借(jie)鑒參考。

1可耕地內涵

依據(ju)聯合(he)國(guo)(guo)糧農(nong)(nong)組(zu)織（FoodandAgricultureOrganization，FAO）的(de)(de)定(ding)義，耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)是(shi)指(zhi)(zhi)通(tong)過(guo)(guo)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)、播種(zhong)(zhong)和(he)(he)種(zhong)(zhong)植農(nong)(nong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)物(wu)(wu)而(er)可(ke)(ke)以耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)種(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)土(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)，而(er)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)土(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)利用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)現(xian)狀(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)分類(lei)(lei)GB/T21010—2017規定(ding)，耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)是(shi)指(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)植農(nong)(nong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)物(wu)(wu)的(de)(de)土(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)，且在(zai)第三(san)次全國(guo)(guo)國(guo)(guo)土(tu)(tu)(tu)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)調查中(zhong)(zhong)也(ye)采(cai)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)所見即所得(de)的(de)(de)方式來認定(ding)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)。可(ke)(ke)見，兩者(zhe)(zhe)在(zai)概(gai)念(nian)內(nei)(nei)涵上(shang)存在(zai)差別，前者(zhe)(zhe)注重(zhong)土(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)的(de)(de)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)能力(li)，而(er)后者(zhe)(zhe)注重(zhong)土(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)的(de)(de)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)現(xian)狀(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)，即是(shi)否(fou)在(zai)其(qi)(qi)(qi)上(shang)種(zhong)(zhong)植農(nong)(nong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)物(wu)(wu)，特別是(shi)糧食作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)物(wu)(wu)。本研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)在(zai)FAO有關耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)概(gai)念(nian)的(de)(de)基(ji)(ji)礎上(shang)，提(ti)出可(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)（cultivatableland）概(gai)念(nian)，其(qi)(qi)(qi)現(xian)狀(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)不一定(ding)種(zhong)(zhong)植農(nong)(nong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)物(wu)(wu)，但其(qi)(qi)(qi)通(tong)過(guo)(guo)土(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)整(zheng)理、復墾、整(zheng)治等(deng)措施后能進(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)。當前中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)在(zai)進(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)保護(hu)(hu)時(shi)，保護(hu)(hu)的(de)(de)是(shi)現(xian)狀(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)種(zhong)(zhong)植農(nong)(nong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)物(wu)(wu)的(de)(de)土(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)，而(er)具(ju)備(bei)(bei)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)種(zhong)(zhong)潛(qian)力(li)的(de)(de)土(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)中(zhong)(zhong)除(chu)了(le)部分被(bei)列為(wei)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)后備(bei)(bei)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)或(huo)可(ke)(ke)調整(zheng)為(wei)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)的(de)(de)土(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)有特殊(shu)保護(hu)(hu)外(wai)，其(qi)(qi)(qi)余具(ju)備(bei)(bei)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)種(zhong)(zhong)潛(qian)力(li)的(de)(de)土(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)未能按照耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)保護(hu)(hu)標準進(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)保護(hu)(hu)。本研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)中(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)可(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)是(shi)指(zhi)(zhi)所有可(ke)(ke)以耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)的(de)(de)土(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)，不局限于(yu)現(xian)有耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)或(huo)者(zhe)(zhe)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)后備(bei)(bei)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)范疇，可(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)與土(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)、耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)、耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)后備(bei)(bei)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)關系如(ru)圖1所示。開展土(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)可(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)性(xing)(xing)(xing)評(ping)價(jia)(jia)是(shi)評(ping)定(ding)土(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)具(ju)有耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)能力(li)（possibility）的(de)(de)過(guo)(guo)程(cheng)，其(qi)(qi)(qi)與已有研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)中(zhong)(zhong)土(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)適(shi)(shi)宜(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)評(ping)價(jia)(jia)、耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)適(shi)(shi)宜(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)評(ping)價(jia)(jia)及(ji)(ji)土(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)宜(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)性(xing)(xing)(xing)評(ping)價(jia)(jia)等(deng)不同。其(qi)(qi)(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)，FAO關于(yu)土(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)適(shi)(shi)宜(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)評(ping)價(jia)(jia)指(zhi)(zhi)評(ping)定(ding)土(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)對特定(ding)利用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)類(lei)(lei)型(xing)的(de)(de)適(shi)(shi)宜(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)程(cheng)度（suitability）的(de)(de)過(guo)(guo)程(cheng)，其(qi)(qi)(qi)研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)范圍(wei)(wei)為(wei)全域范圍(wei)(wei)內(nei)(nei)所有土(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)；耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)適(shi)(shi)宜(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)評(ping)價(jia)(jia)主要(yao)指(zhi)(zhi)評(ping)定(ding)現(xian)狀(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)于(yu)農(nong)(nong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)物(wu)(wu)種(zhong)(zhong)植的(de)(de)適(shi)(shi)宜(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)程(cheng)度的(de)(de)過(guo)(guo)程(cheng)[28]；土(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)宜(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)性(xing)(xing)(xing)評(ping)價(jia)(jia)主要(yao)指(zhi)(zhi)評(ping)定(ding)部分用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)類(lei)(lei)型(xing)（鹽堿(jian)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)、荒草(cao)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)、裸土(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)、牧草(cao)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)及(ji)(ji)其(qi)(qi)(qi)他草(cao)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)等(deng)特定(ding)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)類(lei)(lei)）用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)于(yu)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)的(de)(de)適(shi)(shi)宜(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)過(guo)(guo)程(cheng)[20,29-30]。此外(wai)，由于(yu)本研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)基(ji)(ji)于(yu)全國(guo)(guo)尺(chi)度，受(shou)數(shu)據(ju)獲(huo)取及(ji)(ji)工作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)量(liang)限制(zhi)，故無法實現(xian)將(jiang)建(jian)設用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)進(jin)(jin)一步細分，進(jin)(jin)而(er)無法深入(ru)探(tan)討(tao)其(qi)(qi)(qi)內(nei)(nei)部存在(zai)的(de)(de)可(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)潛(qian)力(li)，因此，本研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)在(zai)進(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)可(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)測算時(shi)剔除(chu)了(le)建(jian)設用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)。在(zai)進(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)數(shu)量(liang)分析時(shi)，本研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)采(cai)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)非(fei)建(jian)可(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)與現(xian)狀(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)進(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)數(shu)量(liang)和(he)(he)空間的(de)(de)對比(bi)，其(qi)(qi)(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)，非(fei)建(jian)可(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)為(wei)剔除(chu)現(xian)狀(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)為(wei)建(jian)設用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)的(de)(de)可(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)。本研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)中(zhong)(zhong)所指(zhi)(zhi)的(de)(de)現(xian)狀(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)或(huo)現(xian)狀(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)建(jian)設用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)均(jun)指(zhi)(zhi)2020年的(de)(de)現(xian)狀(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)。

2數據來源及研究方法

2.1研究方法

2.1.1耕(geng)作可耕(geng)性評(ping)價因子選擇(ze)

選擇不(bu)(bu)(bu)同的(de)(de)(de)(de)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)子(zi)(zi)構建不(bu)(bu)(bu)同的(de)(de)(de)(de)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)體系(xi)，評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)結果往往具有較(jiao)大(da)(da)差(cha)異，本(ben)(ben)研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)主要(yao)是篩選出可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)，因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)此選擇主導因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)子(zi)(zi)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)，而(er)忽(hu)略(lve)影(ying)響(xiang)較(jiao)小的(de)(de)(de)(de)因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)子(zi)(zi)。結合《全國(guo)(guo)(guo)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)后(hou)備資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)調(diao)查評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)技術(shu)方(fang)(fang)案》及(ji)有關(guan)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)宜耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)性(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)有關(guan)研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)[23,31]，本(ben)(ben)研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)主要(yao)從(cong)生(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)條(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)件(jian)、氣候條(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)件(jian)、地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)形(xing)(xing)條(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)件(jian)、土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)壤(rang)(rang)條(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)件(jian)4個(ge)(ge)(ge)方(fang)(fang)面篩選影(ying)響(xiang)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)是否(fou)適合作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)的(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)響(xiang)因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)素。在(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)條(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)件(jian)方(fang)(fang)面，為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)確保(bao)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)生(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)環境(jing)(jing)可(ke)(ke)(ke)持續(xu)發(fa)展(zhan)，在(zai)篩選可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)時應避免(mian)破環區(qu)域(yu)生(sheng)(sheng)境(jing)(jing)和(he)生(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)多樣(yang)性(xing)(xing)，而(er)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)自然保(bao)護(hu)(hu)區(qu)和(he)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)公園(yuan)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)內重(zhong)要(yao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)，其(qi)潛在(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)價(jia)(jia)值(zhi)(zhi)遠大(da)(da)于(yu)其(qi)開發(fa)利用(yong)價(jia)(jia)值(zhi)(zhi)。因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)此，本(ben)(ben)研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)將位于(yu)自然保(bao)護(hu)(hu)區(qu)、風景名(ming)勝區(qu)、飲(yin)用(yong)水源(yuan)(yuan)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)、森林公園(yuan)、地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)質(zhi)(zhi)公園(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)不(bu)(bu)(bu)可(ke)(ke)(ke)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)。在(zai)氣候條(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)件(jian)方(fang)(fang)面，水熱條(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)件(jian)對(dui)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)物(wu)生(sheng)(sheng)長(chang)起著基礎性(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)用(yong)，決定一個(ge)(ge)(ge)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)氣候生(sheng)(sheng)產力(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)高低，選擇年平(ping)均降(jiang)水量(liang)和(he)大(da)(da)于(yu)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)于(yu)10℃積(ji)溫(wen)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)性(xing)(xing)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)的(de)(de)(de)(de)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)，參(can)考(kao)(kao)已有研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)，將年積(ji)溫(wen)≤2000作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)的(de)(de)(de)(de)限(xian)(xian)制性(xing)(xing)條(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)件(jian)，天然降(jiang)水量(liang)≤200mm且(qie)(qie)(qie)無(wu)灌溉條(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)件(jian)，無(wu)法(fa)滿足作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)物(wu)生(sheng)(sheng)長(chang)需求作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)限(xian)(xian)制性(xing)(xing)條(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)件(jian)。在(zai)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)形(xing)(xing)條(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)件(jian)方(fang)(fang)面，由于(yu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)形(xing)(xing)影(ying)響(xiang)太陽輻射(she)、降(jiang)水和(he)成(cheng)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)物(wu)質(zhi)(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)再分(fen)(fen)配，而(er)且(qie)(qie)(qie)影(ying)響(xiang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)利用(yong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)難易程度(du)(du)(du)(du)、經濟(ji)效益和(he)生(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)風險，選擇坡度(du)(du)(du)(du)和(he)侵(qin)(qin)蝕(shi)(shi)(shi)風險兩個(ge)(ge)(ge)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)形(xing)(xing)因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)子(zi)(zi)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)，且(qie)(qie)(qie)將坡度(du)(du)(du)(du)＞25°和(he)侵(qin)(qin)蝕(shi)(shi)(shi)風險為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)劇烈侵(qin)(qin)蝕(shi)(shi)(shi)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)的(de)(de)(de)(de)限(xian)(xian)制性(xing)(xing)條(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)件(jian)。在(zai)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)壤(rang)(rang)條(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)(tiao)件(jian)方(fang)(fang)面，主要(yao)選擇土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)壤(rang)(rang)質(zhi)(zhi)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)和(he)pH值(zhi)(zhi)兩個(ge)(ge)(ge)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)壤(rang)(rang)因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)子(zi)(zi)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)，且(qie)(qie)(qie)將沙土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)、重(zhong)黏(nian)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)壤(rang)(rang)質(zhi)(zhi)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)的(de)(de)(de)(de)限(xian)(xian)制性(xing)(xing)因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)素，將pH＜4.5，pH≥9.5作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)壤(rang)(rang)pH的(de)(de)(de)(de)限(xian)(xian)制性(xing)(xing)因(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)(yin)素。其(qi)中(zhong)，大(da)(da)于(yu)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)于(yu)10℃積(ji)溫(wen)、年平(ping)均降(jiang)水量(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)模型(xing)參(can)數主要(yao)參(can)考(kao)(kao)文獻[31-32]。坡度(du)(du)(du)(du)、土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)壤(rang)(rang)質(zhi)(zhi)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)和(he)pH值(zhi)(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)模型(xing)參(can)數和(he)得分(fen)(fen)主要(yao)參(can)考(kao)(kao)《農用(yong)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)質(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)分(fen)(fen)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)規程》（GB/T28407—2012），土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)壤(rang)(rang)侵(qin)(qin)蝕(shi)(shi)(shi)分(fen)(fen)級(ji)(ji)和(he)得分(fen)(fen)參(can)考(kao)(kao)中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)科學院資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)環境(jing)(jing)科學數據(ju)中(zhong)心(xin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)數據(ju)分(fen)(fen)類(lei)，并結合實際研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)需要(yao)進行了修(xiu)改。評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)中(zhong)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)壤(rang)(rang)質(zhi)(zhi)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)離(li)散(san)型(xing)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)，pH值(zhi)(zhi)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)中(zhong)間型(xing)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)，為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)了方(fang)(fang)便數據(ju)處理，將pH值(zhi)(zhi)通過分(fen)(fen)級(ji)(ji)轉化為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)離(li)散(san)型(xing)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)，對(dui)離(li)散(san)型(xing)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)打分(fen)(fen)后(hou)計(ji)算(suan)可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)性(xing)(xing)指(zhi)(zhi)數。具體為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)壤(rang)(rang)質(zhi)(zhi)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)劃(hua)分(fen)(fen)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)壤(rang)(rang)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)、黏(nian)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)（除重(zhong)黏(nian)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)）、壤(rang)(rang)沙土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)、沙土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)&重(zhong)黏(nian)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)，其(qi)分(fen)(fen)值(zhi)(zhi)分(fen)(fen)別為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)100、90、60、0；土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)壤(rang)(rang)侵(qin)(qin)蝕(shi)(shi)(shi)劃(hua)分(fen)(fen)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)微度(du)(du)(du)(du)侵(qin)(qin)蝕(shi)(shi)(shi)、輕(qing)度(du)(du)(du)(du)侵(qin)(qin)蝕(shi)(shi)(shi)、中(zhong)度(du)(du)(du)(du)侵(qin)(qin)蝕(shi)(shi)(shi)、強度(du)(du)(du)(du)侵(qin)(qin)蝕(shi)(shi)(shi)、劇烈侵(qin)(qin)蝕(shi)(shi)(shi)，其(qi)分(fen)(fen)值(zhi)(zhi)分(fen)(fen)別為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)100、75、50、25、0；pH值(zhi)(zhi)劃(hua)分(fen)(fen)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)6.0≤pH＜7.9、5.5≤pH＜6.0&7.9≤pH＜8.5、5.0≤pH＜5.5&8.5≤pH＜9.0、4.5≤pH＜5.0&9.0≤pH＜9.5、pH＜4.5&pH≥9.5，其(qi)分(fen)(fen)值(zhi)(zhi)分(fen)(fen)別為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)100、90、80、60、0。根據(ju)FAO頒布的(de)(de)(de)(de)《土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)綱要(yao)》中(zhong)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)對(dui)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)用(yong)途(tu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)適宜性(xing)(xing)和(he)限(xian)(xian)制程度(du)(du)(du)(du)，本(ben)(ben)研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)將土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)性(xing)(xing)劃(hua)分(fen)(fen)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)高度(du)(du)(du)(du)可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)、中(zhong)度(du)(du)(du)(du)可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)、勉強可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)、不(bu)(bu)(bu)可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)4個(ge)(ge)(ge)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)級(ji)(ji)。

2.1.2生態位模型

本研究采用生態位模型評價土地可耕性。生態位表征區域發展對資源的需求所構成的多維空間，區域的現狀資源空間和需求生態位之間的匹配程度可用于資源適宜性評價[33]。有關專家學者將生態位模型引入到耕地適宜性評價中，并構建耕地可持續利用生態位模型[34]。依據耕地生態位模型可將本研究選擇的評價因子分為4類：正向型因子（大于等于10℃積溫、年均降水和土壤質地），這類因子必須滿足最低要求，值越大越好，但當值超過某一值后，其影響程度越來越小。該類型指標的評價模型為式中Mi為評價因子i的可耕性指數；Xi為評價因子i的現狀值；Diopt和Dimin分別為評價因子i的理想值和最低限度值。適度型因子（pH值），該類因子的值存在一個適宜的區間，既不能高于某一個值也不能低于某一個值，過高或過低都會成為限制因素。該類型指標的評價模型為式中Dimax是因子i的上限值。負向型因子（坡度、侵蝕風險），該類因子必須低于一定值，且數值越低越好。該類型指標的評價模型為4）確定性影響因子（特殊生態區）。由于本研究是在全國地域范圍內進行，區別于傳統的耕地生態位模型，為確保實現糧食安全的同時保障生態安全，因此，本研究在進行土地可耕性評價時增加建設用地、特殊保護區、生態敏感區、生態脆弱區的評價因子，凡是屬于建設用地、特殊保護區、生態敏感區和生態脆弱區中的土地均不能作為可耕地開發。因此，增加此類影響因子。該類型指標的評價模型為利用各評價因子的現狀值組成的向量表征土地的現實生態位，所有影響土地可耕性的指標值構成了一個n維的資源空間，其中各評價因子處于理想值可令土地可耕性達到最優狀態，此狀態表征為土地可耕性的最佳生態位。現實生態位與最佳生態位的貼近程度為土地可耕性的生態位可耕性，任何一個因子的不足都會最終影響土地的可耕性。因此，土地的可耕性評價模型為式中M為土地的可耕性指數。土地的可耕性達到耕地的最低要求時則說明該土地為可耕地，可耕性指數越大代表可耕地質量越好。
2.2數據來源

本(ben)研究所用的數據主(zhu)要包(bao)括：

1）2020年全國土地利(li)用遙感監測數(shu)據(ju)，分(fen)辨(bian)率為1km×1km，來(lai)源(yuan)于中(zhong)國科學院資源(yuan)環境科學數(shu)據(ju)中(zhong)心（）；

2）土壤(rang)質地(di)和pH值(zhi)數據(ju)，來(lai)源于世界土壤(rang)數據(ju)庫（HWSD）；

3）DEM和(he)土壤侵蝕空間分(fen)布數據(ju)，來(lai)源于中(zhong)國(guo)科學院資源環境科學數據(ju)中(zhong)心(xin)，借助(zhu)ArcMap10.4中(zhong)的坡度生成工具提取(qu)坡度；

4）多年平均降水和大于等于10℃積溫，來源于中國(guo)科學(xue)院(yuan)資源環(huan)境(jing)科學(xue)數(shu)據中心

5）國(guo)家自(zi)然保護區和國(guo)家公園邊界(jie)數據(ju)，來源于(yu)中國(guo)自(zi)然保護區標(biao)本資(zi)源共享平臺

6）中國(guo)(guo)六大區(qu)域分(fen)(fen)布、九(jiu)大農(nong)業區(qu)、農(nong)業自(zi)然區(qu)劃數(shu)(shu)據(ju)來源(yuan)于(yu)中國(guo)(guo)科(ke)學院資源(yuan)環(huan)境科(ke)學數(shu)(shu)據(ju)中心(xin)（=。將以(yi)上(shang)所有空(kong)間(jian)數(shu)(shu)據(ju)統一轉化為(wei)柵格(ge)數(shu)(shu)據(ju)且統一重采樣(yang)為(wei)1km×1km空(kong)間(jian)分(fen)(fen)辨率。

3可耕地評價結果及空間分布格局

3.1可耕地現狀

依據評(ping)價(jia)單(dan)元總(zong)(zong)分(fen)(fen)(fen)值，通過(guo)對比最(zui)終選擇與實際情況較為(wei)符合的(de)(de)(de)自然斷點法將土(tu)地(di)可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)性劃分(fen)(fen)(fen)為(wei)4個(ge)等(deng)(deng)(deng)級，即(ji)不可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)[0]、勉(mian)(mian)強耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)（0,63]、中(zhong)度可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)（63,78]、高(gao)(gao)度可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)（78,100]，得到中(zhong)國(guo)土(tu)地(di)可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)性等(deng)(deng)(deng)級結果（圖(tu)2）。從數量層面(mian)(mian)上看(kan)(kan)，可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)約為(wei)現狀耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)的(de)(de)(de)2.05倍。其中(zhong)，不可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)、勉(mian)(mian)強可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)、中(zhong)度可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)、高(gao)(gao)度可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別約5815746、1286896、1388611、957505km2，分(fen)(fen)(fen)別占國(guo)土(tu)總(zong)(zong)面(mian)(mian)積的(de)(de)(de)61.55%、13.62%、14.70%、10.13%。從空間(jian)分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)層面(mian)(mian)上看(kan)(kan)，中(zhong)國(guo)土(tu)地(di)可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)性東(dong)(dong)部和(he)(he)西(xi)部差異明(ming)顯，分(fen)(fen)(fen)界線(xian)基(ji)本與“胡(hu)(hu)煥(huan)庸(yong)線(xian)”重合，可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)主要(yao)(yao)分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)在(zai)(zai)“胡(hu)(hu)煥(huan)庸(yong)線(xian)”東(dong)(dong)側，不可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)主要(yao)(yao)分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)在(zai)(zai)“胡(hu)(hu)煥(huan)庸(yong)線(xian)”西(xi)側。高(gao)(gao)度可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)主要(yao)(yao)分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)在(zai)(zai)廣東(dong)(dong)、海南(nan)、廣西(xi)、福建、江西(xi)、湖南(nan)、浙江、上海、江蘇、安徽(hui)等(deng)(deng)(deng)省份，中(zhong)度可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)主要(yao)(yao)分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)在(zai)(zai)河南(nan)、山(shan)東(dong)(dong)、河北、遼(liao)寧、北京、貴州等(deng)(deng)(deng)省份，勉(mian)(mian)強可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)主要(yao)(yao)分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)在(zai)(zai)山(shan)西(xi)、陜西(xi)、吉(ji)林、黑龍(long)江、內蒙古等(deng)(deng)(deng)省份。通過(guo)土(tu)地(di)可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)性評(ping)價(jia)結果可(ke)(ke)(ke)知，可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)土(tu)地(di)面(mian)(mian)積較少，僅占國(guo)土(tu)總(zong)(zong)面(mian)(mian)積的(de)(de)(de)48.45%，且(qie)可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)土(tu)地(di)中(zhong)73.64%屬于勉(mian)(mian)強可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)和(he)(he)中(zhong)度可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)。此外，可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)空間(jian)分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)不均勻，主要(yao)(yao)分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)在(zai)(zai)“胡(hu)(hu)煥(huan)庸(yong)線(xian)”以東(dong)(dong)的(de)(de)(de)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)域，與人口空間(jian)分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)高(gao)(gao)度重合，可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)面(mian)(mian)臨(lin)隨時被侵占的(de)(de)(de)風(feng)險(xian)。

3.2可耕(geng)地與(yu)現狀耕(geng)地空間分(fen)布格局

為(wei)厘清(qing)可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)與(yu)(yu)(yu)現(xian)(xian)狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)的(de)(de)(de)(de)空(kong)(kong)間(jian)(jian)匹配度(du)(du)情況，同時從不同區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)域(yu)維(wei)(wei)度(du)(du)對(dui)比(bi)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)其差異，本(ben)研究從學(xue)界(jie)已發布(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)六(liu)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)九(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)農(nong)(nong)業區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)自(zi)然資源區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)劃3個維(wei)(wei)度(du)(du)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)與(yu)(yu)(yu)現(xian)(xian)狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)的(de)(de)(de)(de)空(kong)(kong)間(jian)(jian)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)（圖3），其中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)六(liu)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)是(shi)按(an)照地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)理(li)(li)位置和(he)氣候(hou)條(tiao)(tiao)件來(lai)劃分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)的(de)(de)(de)(de)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)九(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)農(nong)(nong)業區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)是(shi)根(gen)據(ju)農(nong)(nong)業生產(chan)條(tiao)(tiao)件、特征(zheng)和(he)發展(zhan)方(fang)向、重大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)問題和(he)關鍵(jian)措(cuo)施及(ji)行政單(dan)位的(de)(de)(de)(de)完整性等原(yuan)則(ze)劃分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)的(de)(de)(de)(de)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)自(zi)然資源區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)劃是(shi)依據(ju)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)貌、氣候(hou)劃分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)的(de)(de)(de)(de)。此外，現(xian)(xian)狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)性分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)級處(chu)理(li)(li)方(fang)法與(yu)(yu)(yu)可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)保持一致(zhi)。從中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)六(liu)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)維(wei)(wei)度(du)(du)可(ke)(ke)(ke)知(zhi)，可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)在(zai)(zai)(zai)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)南(nan)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)、華(hua)東(dong)(dong)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)和(he)東(dong)(dong)北(bei)(bei)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)，不可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作的(de)(de)(de)(de)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)域(yu)主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)在(zai)(zai)(zai)西北(bei)(bei)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)和(he)西南(nan)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)。現(xian)(xian)狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)在(zai)(zai)(zai)六(liu)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)為(wei)均勻，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)南(nan)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)、華(hua)東(dong)(dong)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)、東(dong)(dong)北(bei)(bei)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)相(xiang)對(dui)較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)多，西南(nan)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)、西北(bei)(bei)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)相(xiang)對(dui)較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)少，但仍(reng)占(zhan)(zhan)整體的(de)(de)(de)(de)29.41%，而(er)可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)在(zai)(zai)(zai)六(liu)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)空(kong)(kong)間(jian)(jian)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)差異較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)為(wei)明(ming)顯，兩(liang)者空(kong)(kong)間(jian)(jian)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)存在(zai)(zai)(zai)較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)差異；從中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)自(zi)然區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)劃維(wei)(wei)度(du)(du)可(ke)(ke)(ke)知(zhi)，可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)在(zai)(zai)(zai)濕潤(run)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)和(he)半濕潤(run)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)，約占(zhan)(zhan)可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)總(zong)(zong)量的(de)(de)(de)(de)93.10%。干(gan)(gan)(gan)旱(han)(han)(han)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)、半干(gan)(gan)(gan)旱(han)(han)(han)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)幾乎沒有可(ke)(ke)(ke)以耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)種的(de)(de)(de)(de)土地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)。現(xian)(xian)狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)85.71%分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)在(zai)(zai)(zai)濕潤(run)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)、半濕潤(run)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)，干(gan)(gan)(gan)旱(han)(han)(han)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)和(he)半干(gan)(gan)(gan)旱(han)(han)(han)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)約占(zhan)(zhan)14.29%。總(zong)(zong)體來(lai)說(shuo)可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)與(yu)(yu)(yu)現(xian)(xian)狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)在(zai)(zai)(zai)自(zi)然區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)劃維(wei)(wei)度(du)(du)空(kong)(kong)間(jian)(jian)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)差異不大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)；從中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)九(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)農(nong)(nong)業區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)維(wei)(wei)度(du)(du)可(ke)(ke)(ke)知(zhi)，可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)在(zai)(zai)(zai)華(hua)南(nan)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)、長江中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)下游(you)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)、黃(huang)淮海(hai)平(ping)原(yuan)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)、云(yun)貴高原(yuan)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)，而(er)現(xian)(xian)狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)在(zai)(zai)(zai)長江中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)下游(you)平(ping)原(yuan)、東(dong)(dong)北(bei)(bei)平(ping)原(yuan)、黃(huang)淮海(hai)平(ping)原(yuan)、北(bei)(bei)方(fang)干(gan)(gan)(gan)旱(han)(han)(han)與(yu)(yu)(yu)半干(gan)(gan)(gan)旱(han)(han)(han)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)、云(yun)貴高原(yuan)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)、四川盆地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)及(ji)周邊(bian)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)。總(zong)(zong)體來(lai)說(shuo)可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)與(yu)(yu)(yu)現(xian)(xian)狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)在(zai)(zai)(zai)九(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)農(nong)(nong)業區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)維(wei)(wei)度(du)(du)空(kong)(kong)間(jian)(jian)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)存在(zai)(zai)(zai)一定(ding)的(de)(de)(de)(de)差異，主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)體現(xian)(xian)在(zai)(zai)(zai)現(xian)(xian)狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)在(zai)(zai)(zai)北(bei)(bei)方(fang)干(gan)(gan)(gan)旱(han)(han)(han)與(yu)(yu)(yu)半干(gan)(gan)(gan)旱(han)(han)(han)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)、東(dong)(dong)北(bei)(bei)平(ping)原(yuan)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)，而(er)光溫(wen)水(shui)土較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)好(hao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)華(hua)南(nan)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)少。

3.3可耕(geng)地與現狀耕(geng)地沖(chong)突分析

將可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)和(he)現(xian)(xian)(xian)狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)進行空(kong)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)疊加，便(bian)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)得到(dao)(dao)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)與(yu)(yu)現(xian)(xian)(xian)狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)的(de)(de)(de)(de)沖(chong)(chong)突(tu)(tu)(tu)關系，主要(yao)(yao)體現(xian)(xian)(xian)在(zai)空(kong)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)沖(chong)(chong)突(tu)(tu)(tu)、質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)沖(chong)(chong)突(tu)(tu)(tu)和(he)管(guan)控(kong)沖(chong)(chong)突(tu)(tu)(tu)3個方面(mian)(mian)(mian)。在(zai)空(kong)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)沖(chong)(chong)突(tu)(tu)(tu)方面(mian)(mian)(mian)，通(tong)過(guo)對(dui)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)和(he)現(xian)(xian)(xian)狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)的(de)(de)(de)(de)空(kong)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)(bu)(bu)格局分(fen)(fen)(fen)析可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)知(zhi)(zhi)（圖4），現(xian)(xian)(xian)狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)與(yu)(yu)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)的(de)(de)(de)(de)空(kong)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)重(zhong)合率為(wei)83.17%，即有(you)16.83%的(de)(de)(de)(de)現(xian)(xian)(xian)狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)(bu)(bu)在(zai)不(bu)(bu)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)區(qu)(qu)(qu)，而空(kong)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)重(zhong)合區(qu)(qu)(qu)域(yu)(yu)中(zhong)僅有(you)27.51%的(de)(de)(de)(de)現(xian)(xian)(xian)狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)(bu)(bu)在(zai)高度(du)(du)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)區(qu)(qu)(qu)內，可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)見可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)與(yu)(yu)現(xian)(xian)(xian)狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)存(cun)在(zai)嚴重(zhong)空(kong)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)錯(cuo)配(pei)，錯(cuo)配(pei)區(qu)(qu)(qu)域(yu)(yu)主要(yao)(yao)分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)(bu)(bu)在(zai)新疆、甘肅、寧夏(xia)、內蒙古等地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)。在(zai)質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)沖(chong)(chong)突(tu)(tu)(tu)方面(mian)(mian)(mian)，分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)(bu)(bu)在(zai)不(bu)(bu)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)區(qu)(qu)(qu)、勉強可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)區(qu)(qu)(qu)及中(zhong)度(du)(du)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)區(qu)(qu)(qu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)現(xian)(xian)(xian)狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)占(zhan)現(xian)(xian)(xian)狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)與(yu)(yu)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)重(zhong)復部(bu)(bu)分(fen)(fen)(fen)的(de)(de)(de)(de)72.49%，該區(qu)(qu)(qu)域(yu)(yu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)在(zai)氣候、地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)形、土壤(rang)等條件上(shang)存(cun)在(zai)一定的(de)(de)(de)(de)障(zhang)礙因(yin)(yin)素，嚴重(zhong)影響耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)。據(ju)農(nong)(nong)業農(nong)(nong)村部(bu)(bu)發布(bu)(bu)(bu)《2019年全國耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)等級(ji)情況(kuang)公報》可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)知(zhi)(zhi)，全國耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)平(ping)均等級(ji)為(wei)4.76等，耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)等級(ji)整體不(bu)(bu)高。因(yin)(yin)此，通(tong)過(guo)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)空(kong)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)布(bu)(bu)(bu)局合理布(bu)(bu)(bu)局現(xian)(xian)(xian)狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)對(dui)提(ti)升耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)具有(you)重(zhong)要(yao)(yao)意義(yi)。在(zai)管(guan)控(kong)沖(chong)(chong)突(tu)(tu)(tu)方面(mian)(mian)(mian)，中(zhong)國對(dui)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)實施最嚴格的(de)(de)(de)(de)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)保護(hu)，嚴格控(kong)制(zhi)其用途(tu)，加強耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)用途(tu)管(guan)制(zhi)，還對(dui)部(bu)(bu)分(fen)(fen)(fen)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)后(hou)備資源采取特殊保護(hu)，而對(dui)其他具有(you)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)潛力(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)土地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)并未明(ming)確規定如何保護(hu)，缺少(shao)細(xi)致的(de)(de)(de)(de)土地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)用途(tu)管(guan)制(zhi)要(yao)(yao)求，致使(shi)部(bu)(bu)分(fen)(fen)(fen)優(you)(you)質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)卻(que)為(wei)劃(hua)定為(wei)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)或(huo)者耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)后(hou)備資源的(de)(de)(de)(de)土地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)未得到(dao)(dao)有(you)效保護(hu)，出(chu)現(xian)(xian)(xian)污染土壤(rang)、侵占(zhan)優(you)(you)質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)、掠奪式開(kai)發等破(po)壞土地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)層的(de)(de)(de)(de)行為(wei)，可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)安全得不(bu)(bu)到(dao)(dao)保障(zhang)。總體來(lai)說，由于(yu)現(xian)(xian)(xian)狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)與(yu)(yu)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)存(cun)在(zai)空(kong)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)錯(cuo)配(pei)，有(you)將近(jin)五分(fen)(fen)(fen)之一的(de)(de)(de)(de)現(xian)(xian)(xian)狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)(bu)(bu)在(zai)不(bu)(bu)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)區(qu)(qu)(qu)，重(zhong)合區(qu)(qu)(qu)域(yu)(yu)中(zhong)有(you)將近(jin)60%的(de)(de)(de)(de)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)(bu)(bu)在(zai)中(zhong)度(du)(du)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)區(qu)(qu)(qu)以(yi)下，耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)總體不(bu)(bu)高，大量(liang)優(you)(you)質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)因(yin)(yin)缺少(shao)應(ying)有(you)的(de)(de)(de)(de)用途(tu)管(guan)控(kong)、地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)力(li)保護(hu)等而使(shi)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)層遭到(dao)(dao)破(po)壞，亟需根(gen)據(ju)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)空(kong)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)布(bu)(bu)(bu)局及可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)性分(fen)(fen)(fen)級(ji)結果優(you)(you)化耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)布(bu)(bu)(bu)局，降低現(xian)(xian)(xian)狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)與(yu)(yu)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)空(kong)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)沖(chong)(chong)突(tu)(tu)(tu)。

4耕地保護轉型策略

4.1將耕地(di)保護擴展到可耕地(di)保護

將(jiang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)拓展到可耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)為(wei)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)障國家(jia)(jia)糧食(shi)(shi)安全(quan)(quan)提(ti)供充足的(de)(de)(de)數量保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)證。雖然現狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)在數量上(shang)滿(man)足當下(xia)中國的(de)(de)(de)糧食(shi)(shi)安全(quan)(quan)需求，但在突發(fa)疫情、災情及國際貿易爭端不(bu)斷的(de)(de)(de)背(bei)景下(xia)，國家(jia)(jia)糧食(shi)(shi)安全(quan)(quan)將(jiang)受到嚴重挑戰。此外(wai)，據統計1980－2018年中國人均肉類消費量從9kg增至63kg，居(ju)民膳食(shi)(shi)結(jie)構發(fa)生(sheng)顯著變化，需要(yao)更多的(de)(de)(de)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)種(zhong)植作(zuo)(zuo)物以(yi)滿(man)足居(ju)民對(dui)肉類的(de)(de)(de)需求。可耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)在現狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)的(de)(de)(de)基礎(chu)上(shang)大約增加1858087km2，其中高度(du)(du)可耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)的(de)(de)(de)土地(di)(di)增加552224km2，中度(du)(du)可耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)的(de)(de)(de)土地(di)(di)增加804327km2，勉強可耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)的(de)(de)(de)土地(di)(di)增加800579km2。現狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)中不(bu)可耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)的(de)(de)(de)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)應當遵循(xun)“宜(yi)(yi)林(lin)則林(lin)、宜(yi)(yi)草則草、宜(yi)(yi)濕則濕”的(de)(de)(de)原(yuan)則逐步退出(chu)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)。可耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)區別(bie)于現狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)原(yuan)則，其是(shi)(shi)對(dui)土地(di)(di)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)能力的(de)(de)(de)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)，在確(que)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)糧食(shi)(shi)安全(quan)(quan)的(de)(de)(de)前提(ti)下(xia)，評估可耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)原(yuan)有種(zhong)植類型是(shi)(shi)否破(po)壞耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)層，不(bu)破(po)壞耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)層的(de)(de)(de)種(zhong)植行為(wei)可予(yu)以(yi)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)留，破(po)壞耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)層的(de)(de)(de)種(zhong)植行為(wei)立即予(yu)以(yi)禁(jin)止(zhi)，并(bing)咨詢相關(guan)農業專(zhuan)家(jia)(jia)結(jie)合當地(di)(di)自然地(di)(di)理狀(zhuang)況種(zhong)植不(bu)破(po)壞耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)層且(qie)經(jing)濟生(sheng)態價值高的(de)(de)(de)農作(zuo)(zuo)物。

4.2開展(zhan)可耕(geng)地分(fen)級分(fen)區保護

將耕地(di)(di)(di)(di)內涵拓展(zhan)至可(ke)耕地(di)(di)(di)(di)內涵時(shi)，具有(you)耕作(zuo)能(neng)力的土(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)總量(liang)增加，但是其質(zhi)量(liang)、空間分(fen)(fen)布存在顯著差異。因(yin)此，可(ke)通(tong)過土(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)可(ke)耕性對可(ke)耕地(di)(di)(di)(di)進行分(fen)(fen)級分(fen)(fen)區(qu)管控以提高(gao)可(ke)耕地(di)(di)(di)(di)效益。

1）在可耕(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)分(fen)級(ji)(ji)方(fang)面(mian)，按照土(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)可耕(geng)性將可耕(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)分(fen)為高(gao)度可耕(geng)、中(zhong)度可耕(geng)、勉(mian)強可耕(geng)3個(ge)等級(ji)(ji)。高(gao)度可耕(geng)為第(di)一等級(ji)(ji)，該等級(ji)(ji)目標為保障國家糧(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)安全(quan)，嚴格管(guan)控(kong)耕(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)非(fei)糧(liang)(liang)化、非(fei)農(nong)(nong)化。中(zhong)度可耕(geng)為第(di)二等級(ji)(ji)，該等級(ji)(ji)采(cai)用糧(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)生產(chan)為主(zhu)，其他農(nong)(nong)作(zuo)物并(bing)行的管(guan)控(kong)模式，能夠(gou)在需(xu)要(yao)時(shi)及時(shi)改種糧(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)。勉(mian)強可耕(geng)為第(di)三(san)等級(ji)(ji)，主(zhu)要(yao)為糧(liang)(liang)食(shi)(shi)、農(nong)(nong)作(zuo)物生產(chan)儲備(bei)區，該地(di)(di)(di)(di)區一般因地(di)(di)(di)(di)勢、降雨、溫度等原因限(xian)制農(nong)(nong)作(zuo)物生產(chan)受限(xian)，因此(ci)，該等級(ji)(ji)內的可耕(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)可以采(cai)取種植不破(po)壞耕(geng)作(zuo)層的果(guo)樹、茶(cha)樹、蔬(shu)菜(cai)等，既提(ti)高(gao)經濟效益又能滿(man)足居民膳(shan)食(shi)(shi)結構(gou)多樣化需(xu)求(qiu)。

2）在(zai)(zai)可(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)地分(fen)(fen)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)方(fang)面，依據可(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)性等級將可(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)地劃分(fen)(fen)為(wei)糧(liang)食(shi)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)功(gong)能(neng)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)、重(zhong)要農(nong)產(chan)品(pin)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)保護區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)、生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)保育區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)3個分(fen)(fen)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)，從(cong)中國九大(da)農(nong)業區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)維度(du)來看，糧(liang)食(shi)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)功(gong)能(neng)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)主(zhu)(zhu)要分(fen)(fen)布(bu)在(zai)(zai)長江中下(xia)(xia)游地區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)、黃(huang)淮(huai)海平(ping)原(yuan)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)、云貴高(gao)(gao)原(yuan)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)、華南區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)、東北平(ping)原(yuan)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)，該(gai)(gai)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)域以高(gao)(gao)度(du)可(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)和中度(du)可(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)為(wei)主(zhu)(zhu)，主(zhu)(zhu)要進行(xing)糧(liang)食(shi)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)。重(zhong)要農(nong)產(chan)品(pin)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)保護區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)主(zhu)(zhu)要分(fen)(fen)布(bu)在(zai)(zai)四川盆地及周邊地區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)、黃(huang)土高(gao)(gao)原(yuan)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)，該(gai)(gai)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)域由少量的高(gao)(gao)度(du)可(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)、中度(du)可(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)及較多的勉(mian)強可(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)組成，所(suo)占面積較小(xiao)且(qie)(qie)不易開(kai)展規模化種(zhong)植，因此(ci)可(ke)(ke)以利用該(gai)(gai)地區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)獨特的地勢(shi)氣候(hou)發展適宜該(gai)(gai)地區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)的農(nong)產(chan)品(pin)，如(ru)甜菜、香菇(gu)、藥材、甘蔗、高(gao)(gao)粱、蘋果、獼(mi)猴桃等農(nong)產(chan)品(pin)。生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)保育區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)主(zhu)(zhu)要分(fen)(fen)布(bu)在(zai)(zai)北方(fang)干旱(han)半(ban)干旱(han)地區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)、青藏高(gao)(gao)原(yuan)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)，該(gai)(gai)地區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)主(zhu)(zhu)要分(fen)(fen)布(bu)少量勉(mian)強可(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)且(qie)(qie)整(zheng)體(ti)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)環境(jing)惡劣，因此(ci)，作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)為(wei)糧(liang)食(shi)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)儲備區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)，在(zai)(zai)糧(liang)食(shi)安全有保障的情況下(xia)(xia)主(zhu)(zhu)要發揮其生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)功(gong)能(neng)，種(zhong)植不破(po)壞耕(geng)(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)層且(qie)(qie)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)(tai)效益高(gao)(gao)的作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)物。

4.3優化(hua)現狀耕(geng)地及新增耕(geng)地布(bu)局

中(zhong)國耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)空間(jian)分(fen)(fen)(fen)布較廣，不同區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)域(yu)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)所面臨的(de)(de)自然社會、經濟、環(huan)境(jing)狀(zhuang)況(kuang)存在(zai)(zai)明顯(xian)差異，依(yi)據(ju)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)布局(ju)及(ji)分(fen)(fen)(fen)級(ji)分(fen)(fen)(fen)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)結(jie)果(guo)優化(hua)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)布局(ju)有益于(yu)提高(gao)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)保護效(xiao)益。首先，在(zai)(zai)優化(hua)現(xian)狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)布局(ju)方(fang)面，依(yi)據(ju)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)分(fen)(fen)(fen)級(ji)分(fen)(fen)(fen)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)結(jie)果(guo)，厘清(qing)現(xian)狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)空間(jian)分(fen)(fen)(fen)布狀(zhuang)況(kuang)，對(dui)于(yu)分(fen)(fen)(fen)布在(zai)(zai)不可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)的(de)(de)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)應(ying)(ying)逐步退耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)，并在(zai)(zai)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)內(nei)補(bu)充(chong)相應(ying)(ying)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)，耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)應(ying)(ying)盡可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)能向可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)性(xing)等(deng)級(ji)較高(gao)的(de)(de)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)聚(ju)集(ji)，提高(gao)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)質量。其次，在(zai)(zai)優化(hua)新(xin)(xin)增耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)布局(ju)方(fang)面，利用(yong)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)分(fen)(fen)(fen)級(ji)分(fen)(fen)(fen)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)結(jie)果(guo)，合理規劃新(xin)(xin)增耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)布局(ju)，新(xin)(xin)增耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)應(ying)(ying)分(fen)(fen)(fen)布在(zai)(zai)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)域(yu)內(nei)，并優先分(fen)(fen)(fen)布在(zai)(zai)對(dui)于(yu)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)的(de)(de)建(jian)設用(yong)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)嚴格(ge)控制(zhi)新(xin)(xin)增建(jian)設用(yong)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)數量，挖(wa)潛盤活存量建(jian)設用(yong)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)，對(dui)于(yu)確實需要新(xin)(xin)增的(de)(de)建(jian)設用(yong)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)，應(ying)(ying)根(gen)據(ju)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)分(fen)(fen)(fen)級(ji)分(fen)(fen)(fen)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)結(jie)果(guo)優先安排在(zai)(zai)不耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作或可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)性(xing)較低的(de)(de)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)。此外，應(ying)(ying)積極騰(teng)退可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)性(xing)較好的(de)(de)閑置廢棄建(jian)設用(yong)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)以補(bu)充(chong)優質耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)。

5討論

本研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)運(yun)用(yong)(yong)生態位模型(xing)(xing)對(dui)(dui)(dui)中(zhong)國土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)性(xing)進(jin)行(xing)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)，探求(qiu)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)性(xing)現狀(zhuang)、空(kong)間(jian)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)布及用(yong)(yong)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)沖突(tu)，以(yi)期厘清可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)資源本底(di)，保(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)其(qi)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作能(neng)(neng)(neng)力，盡可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)避免經(jing)濟發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)過(guo)程(cheng)中(zhong)對(dui)(dui)(dui)優質耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)的(de)(de)(de)(de)侵占(zhan)，有(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)效(xiao)指引現狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)中(zhong)不(bu)(bu)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)陸(lu)續(xu)(xu)退耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)，并在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)高度可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作區(qu)(qu)有(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)序(xu)開墾新耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)，能(neng)(neng)(neng)有(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)效(xiao)提(ti)高耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)數量(liang)(liang)(liang)，改善耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)質量(liang)(liang)(liang)和生態，以(yi)應(ying)對(dui)(dui)(dui)因(yin)突(tu)發(fa)(fa)疫情、災情等(deng)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)激增(zeng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)糧(liang)食(shi)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)。當(dang)前關于(yu)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)保(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)開展(zhan)了大量(liang)(liang)(liang)研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)，研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)內(nei)容逐漸拓展(zhan)至(zhi)數量(liang)(liang)(liang)、質量(liang)(liang)(liang)、生態“三位一(yi)(yi)(yi)體”保(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)，但(dan)研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)內(nei)容大多(duo)集中(zhong)于(yu)現有(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)或局部地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)宜耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)性(xing)研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)。本研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)突(tu)破現狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)限制(zhi)，在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)全(quan)國范圍(wei)內(nei)的(de)(de)(de)(de)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)上(shang)開展(zhan)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)性(xing)研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)，為(wei)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)保(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)提(ti)供了新思路。在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)保(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)內(nei)涵上(shang)，可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)的(de)(de)(de)(de)保(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)指對(dui)(dui)(dui)所(suo)有(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)具(ju)有(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作能(neng)(neng)(neng)力的(de)(de)(de)(de)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)加(jia)以(yi)保(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)；在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)保(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)范圍(wei)上(shang)，可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)包含國土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)內(nei)所(suo)有(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)以(yi)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作的(de)(de)(de)(de)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)（本研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)受數據(ju)(ju)獲取及工(gong)作量(liang)(liang)(liang)限制(zhi)，剔除(chu)了建(jian)設用(yong)(yong)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)），根據(ju)(ju)計算(suan)結(jie)(jie)果(guo)(guo)，可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)是(shi)(shi)現狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)的(de)(de)(de)(de)2.05倍(bei)，能(neng)(neng)(neng)最大限度提(ti)供糧(liang)食(shi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)所(suo)需(xu)(xu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)，有(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)效(xiao)應(ying)對(dui)(dui)(dui)短(duan)時(shi)間(jian)驟升的(de)(de)(de)(de)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)的(de)(de)(de)(de)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)[35]；在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)保(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)內(nei)容上(shang)，可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)保(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)則(ze)是(shi)(shi)采(cai)(cai)取分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)級分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)區(qu)(qu)保(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)，對(dui)(dui)(dui)于(yu)不(bu)(bu)同分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)區(qu)(qu)、不(bu)(bu)同級別(bie)的(de)(de)(de)(de)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)采(cai)(cai)取不(bu)(bu)同的(de)(de)(de)(de)保(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)措施，允許(xu)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)類型(xing)(xing)多(duo)樣化(hua)，其(qi)底(di)線要(yao)(yao)求(qiu)是(shi)(shi)保(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)其(qi)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作層不(bu)(bu)被(bei)破壞。事實(shi)上(shang)，要(yao)(yao)達到(dao)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)標準(zhun)所(suo)需(xu)(xu)要(yao)(yao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)條件較高，受多(duo)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)因(yin)素的(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)響而致(zhi)使測度結(jie)(jie)果(guo)(guo)存在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)差異(yi)，例如(ru)(ru)受數據(ju)(ju)獲取限制(zhi)，中(zhong)國土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)壤數據(ju)(ju)是(shi)(shi)從世(shi)界(jie)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)壤數據(ju)(ju)庫（HWSD）提(ti)取的(de)(de)(de)(de)，該數據(ju)(ju)較為(wei)粗糙(cao)、陳(chen)舊，會在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)一(yi)(yi)(yi)定(ding)(ding)程(cheng)度上(shang)影(ying)響評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)結(jie)(jie)果(guo)(guo)。其(qi)次，受數據(ju)(ju)獲取限制(zhi)，本研(yan)究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)進(jin)行(xing)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)時(shi)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)水(shui)資源方(fang)面(mian)僅選擇年均(jun)降雨量(liang)(liang)(liang)作為(wei)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)指標，未(wei)(wei)將地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)表(biao)水(shui)、地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)下(xia)水(shui)納入評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)指標，雖然農業分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)布格(ge)局與年均(jun)降水(shui)量(liang)(liang)(liang)有(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)關，但(dan)綜合考(kao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)表(biao)水(shui)、地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)下(xia)水(shui)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)布情況(kuang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)進(jin)一(yi)(yi)(yi)步(bu)增(zeng)加(jia)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)結(jie)(jie)果(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)科學嚴謹性(xing)。此(ci)外(wai)，通過(guo)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)性(xing)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)結(jie)(jie)果(guo)(guo)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)知，吉(ji)林、黑龍(long)江、內(nei)蒙古(gu)等(deng)糧(liang)食(shi)主(zhu)產區(qu)(qu)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)布在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)勉強(qiang)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作區(qu)(qu)，這與當(dang)前的(de)(de)(de)(de)認知現狀(zhuang)存在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)差異(yi)。出(chu)現這種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)現象的(de)(de)(de)(de)原因(yin)主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)有(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)兩個方(fang)面(mian)；一(yi)(yi)(yi)是(shi)(shi)全(quan)國尺度的(de)(de)(de)(de)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)因(yin)子選擇原因(yin)，諸如(ru)(ru)積溫、降雨等(deng)對(dui)(dui)(dui)評(ping)(ping)價(jia)(jia)(jia)結(jie)(jie)果(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)響；二是(shi)(shi)吉(ji)林、黑龍(long)江、內(nei)蒙古(gu)等(deng)評(ping)(ping)定(ding)(ding)為(wei)糧(liang)食(shi)主(zhu)產區(qu)(qu)時(shi)受多(duo)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)歷史因(yin)素的(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)響，例如(ru)(ru)，長期的(de)(de)(de)(de)有(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)機質積淀，令東北(bei)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)壤肥沃易于(yu)農作物生產，但(dan)目前東北(bei)黑土(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)逐漸流(liu)失，是(shi)(shi)否能(neng)(neng)(neng)永久(jiu)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)持續(xu)(xu)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)農業尚未(wei)(wei)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)知。此(ci)外(wai)，南方(fang)及東南沿(yan)海地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)經(jing)濟發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)迅(xun)速，大量(liang)(liang)(liang)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)被(bei)占(zhan)用(yong)(yong)，為(wei)保(bao)(bao)(bao)障糧(liang)食(shi)安(an)全(quan)，東北(bei)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)被(bei)賦予承(cheng)載糧(liang)食(shi)生產的(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)(zhong)任。此(ci)外(wai)，可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)空(kong)間(jian)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)布與社會經(jing)濟發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)重(zhong)(zhong)心高度重(zhong)(zhong)合，可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)隨時(shi)面(mian)臨(lin)被(bei)建(jian)設用(yong)(yong)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)侵占(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)威脅，如(ru)(ru)何協(xie)調保(bao)(bao)(bao)護(hu)(hu)(hu)與發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)問題(ti)是(shi)(shi)確(que)保(bao)(bao)(bao)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)持續(xu)(xu)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)(yao)內(nei)容。從生態文(wen)明和高質量(liang)(liang)(liang)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)角度看，可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)級管控和分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)區(qu)(qu)許(xu)可(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)(ke)對(dui)(dui)(dui)實(shi)現多(duo)樣化(hua)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)結(jie)(jie)構，滿足居民膳食(shi)結(jie)(jie)構多(duo)樣化(hua)具(ju)有(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)重(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)(yao)意(yi)義，未(wei)(wei)來在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)不(bu)(bu)破壞耕(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)(geng)作層的(de)(de)(de)(de)前提(ti)下(xia)需(xu)(xu)進(jin)一(yi)(yi)(yi)步(bu)探究(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)不(bu)(bu)同等(deng)級和分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)區(qu)(qu)中(zhong)具(ju)體的(de)(de)(de)(de)植(zhi)物種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)類型(xing)(xing)。

6結論

本研究運用生態位模型(xing)對(dui)全(quan)國土(tu)地(di)(di)開展可耕性(xing)評價，揭示中國可耕地(di)(di)情況(kuang)及其空間(jian)分布特征，分析可耕地(di)(di)與現(xian)狀(zhuang)(zhuang)耕地(di)(di)的(de)空間(jian)分布差異，探(tan)討可耕地(di)(di)與現(xian)狀(zhuang)(zhuang)耕地(di)(di)空間(jian)沖突，并提出對(dui)應的(de)耕地(di)(di)保護轉型(xing)策略(lve)。主要結論(lun)如(ru)下：

1）全國可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)存(cun)量可(ke)(ke)(ke)觀，空間分布(bu)差異(yi)明(ming)顯(xian)。從數量上(shang)看，可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)是現(xian)狀耕(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)的2.05倍(bei)，存(cun)量較(jiao)大(da)(da)。其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)，中(zhong)(zhong)度(du)(du)、高(gao)度(du)(du)可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)是現(xian)狀耕(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)的1.59倍(bei)，總體來(lai)說質量較(jiao)高(gao)，表(biao)明(ming)中(zhong)(zhong)國具(ju)有(you)豐富的可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)資源，對其(qi)加以保護(hu)能在很大(da)(da)程(cheng)度(du)(du)上(shang)確保充足的土地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)以保障國家糧食安全。從空間上(shang)看，可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)主(zhu)要分布(bu)在胡煥(huan)庸線以東(dong)區域，可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)性從東(dong)南向西北逐漸(jian)降低，與中(zhong)(zhong)國工業(ye)(ye)化(hua)、城鎮化(hua)空間分布(bu)格(ge)局大(da)(da)體一致(zhi)，工業(ye)(ye)化(hua)、城鎮化(hua)發展過程(cheng)中(zhong)(zhong)不(bu)斷向周邊蔓(man)延，侵占(zhan)優質可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)，可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)保護(hu)存(cun)在巨大(da)(da)壓力。為應對建設用地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)的大(da)(da)肆擴張，可(ke)(ke)(ke)根(gen)據可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)評價結果，有(you)針對性加強對優質可(ke)(ke)(ke)耕(geng)(geng)(geng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)的保護(hu)力度(du)(du)。

2）現(xian)狀(zhuang)(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)地質量參差不齊，高(gao)度可(ke)耕(geng)(geng)作區(qu)(qu)面積占比較小。據統(tong)計，現(xian)狀(zhuang)(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)地僅有(you)22.88%的耕(geng)(geng)地分布在高(gao)度可(ke)耕(geng)(geng)作區(qu)(qu)，其余主要分布在勉強(qiang)可(ke)耕(geng)(geng)作區(qu)(qu)和(he)中度可(ke)耕(geng)(geng)作區(qu)(qu)，不可(ke)耕(geng)(geng)作區(qu)(qu)中現(xian)狀(zhuang)(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)地仍占16.83%。可(ke)見(jian)，現(xian)狀(zhuang)(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)地質量參差不齊。

3）結合(he)可耕(geng)(geng)地(di)與現狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)地(di)沖(chong)突分析結果(guo)，有16.83%的現狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)地(di)需要(yao)從不可耕(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)區(qu)(qu)調入可耕(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)區(qu)(qu)，主要(yao)分布在(zai)(zai)西北的干旱和(he)半干旱地(di)區(qu)(qu)。在(zai)(zai)可耕(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)區(qu)(qu)域(yu)內的現狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)地(di)中(zhong)，有72.49%的現狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)地(di)屬(shu)于中(zhong)度可耕(geng)(geng)作(zuo)(zuo)區(qu)(qu)及(ji)以下，耕(geng)(geng)地(di)質量總體(ti)不高。此外，可耕(geng)(geng)地(di)在(zai)(zai)現狀(zhuang)耕(geng)(geng)地(di)的基礎(chu)上大約增加1858087km2，主要(yao)分布在(zai)(zai)光溫水土較好的中(zhong)南地(di)區(qu)(qu)和(he)華東地(di)區(qu)(qu)，面(mian)臨著(zhu)建設(she)用(yong)地(di)擴張侵占(zhan)優質可耕(geng)(geng)地(di)的巨大壓力。

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作者:陳紅 楊潤佳 葉艷妹(mei) 單位:浙江大學公共管理學院(yuan)  城鄉建設用地節約(yue)集約(yue)利用實驗室